Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[Oxy]

confirm!

[Oxy]

I didn't think that cover was that bad...

don't hurt me.

[Oxy]

Jeez

You even added the villainous grin, eh?

Was that a true story?

[Oxy]

Well that vote wasn't from NSG ;P

[Oxy]

Ehh i think I read too much into oxy

when you scum read me, or when you town read me?

or both?

[Oxy]

That is what I was referring to. Was it a mistake for me to make that connection?

Im more fine with voting you for a bad reason than unvoting you for a bad reason.

Do you often embark on non sequuntur about your vote philosophy? From here it looks like you felt compelled to explain your lack of unvote.

It was a bad basis for a town read.

[Oxy]

Why would I feel compelled to explain not unvoting you?

Rather than call my reasons for townreads bad, you should try to learn from them if you're town.

Why? - that's precisely the point.
It was a bad basis for a town read because you knew neither what I was asking ruru about, nor why I thought it wasn't NSG voting. I see you figured out half of that here:

And ftr: if I felt more sure that you didn't say it wasn't NSG because the posting obviously wasn't her as opposed to because the vote was on you, I would townread you for that.

[Oxy]

I think that the act of presuming that you ought to be townread by someone who has a history with you would have been something to townread you over, regardless of my understanding of the context.

Would you prefer that I scumread you instead?

I have never argued with the first point, but it has no relevance to this game because that isn't what happened (or, at minimum, it's not something you could have known happened.) But I've already explained all that, so...

[Oxy]

Also I know what I'm doing

please stop gross appeal to authority.

[Oxy]

Yeah, you're clearly great at this game ;P

lolol

RC in this thread:

[Oxy]

What are you even talking about?

You've made numerous comments that amount to "I'm a good player so if you think I'm making a bad play, you're wrong." which is an appeal to authority to defend your read.

Which isn't scummy (because wtf would it matter), but it is gross to keep crowing about yourself.

As to knowing you/not knowing you - I've come across you while reading different parts of this site. From that reading, I know that you like to post a lot, and that a number of people really dislike you. That's about it.

[Oxy]

I established and confirmed that this was a newbie slot ftr

Does this imply that you have read my iso from any game of mine, completed or otherwise?

[Oxy]

Who are these 'a number of people'

I don't know. I read the threads surrounding the geriatric rule set a while back. You weren't exactly loved.

And yes if you disagree with that read you're wrong because it's a pretty strong read: contingent on the premise being true which we've now established it wasn't, it was just general scum tendency to think they need to overreact to and overly question townreads on them to seem towny: which isn't true at all by the way, as scum you shouldn't react to townreads unless you do as town as well.

Does this imply that you have read my iso from any game of mine, completed or otherwise?

I had already read PYP and 1859 because NSG was in them so yes.

Then why do you think that I don't call town reads on me bad when town?

[Oxy]

You realize that I was the first person to mod a serious post restricted game and that I invented the ruleset that geriatric games are played under, correct?

I don't realize that. Others opinions of you aren't really relevant to this game, anyway. I just wanted to give you a proper context for my understanding of you.

[Oxy]

if you disagree with that read you're wrong because it's a pretty strong read: contingent on the premise being true which we've now established it wasn't

If you are reading my posts, you'll know that my entire disagreement was based on you not knowing whether that premise was sound or not.

[Oxy]

Ehh i think I read too much into oxy

At that point, this was all you had said about the town read.

I was looking to flesh out your thought process, and it worked.

[Oxy]

Then why do you think that I don't call town reads on me bad when town?

Let's go back to this, though. It's more important.

[Oxy]

Well that vote wasn't from NSG ;P

oxy, what would make you say that i wouldn't be voting you at that point?

I can see how someone would view my initial questions to ruru as newb scum asking, "lol, is that post a true story? you must be scum"
I expected you, and not RC, to make the connection to her story in 1859, and understand that I was asking if

that

was a true story. You might not town read me for that question, but I don't think you would scum read me for it.

Also, I was conf biased because it seemed like a naked vote would be more likely to come from RC

And you hadn't posted yet.

But the point is that I expected him to ask me why I thought it wasn't you voting, at which point I would explain the reference to 1859, and we would go about our day.

also, what's your read on ruru right now?

I'm going to give ruru maybe 5 more posts to wrap this up, and then I'll give you my thoughts. I DO have thoughts.

[Oxy]

Awesome

VOTE: Ruru

Screw you. replace out or I'm policy lynching you.

Well, I was going to make a post about how Ruru's entrance was planned pre-game as evidenced by

1) The length and commitment to the bit
2) The discussion of provably random voting that isn't actually implementable (that's not how vote ties are broken)
3) having both nsg and rc in her read lists

and that a couple of her posts are pinging me town from a meta reason

but this post is just distasteful. Ruru wasn't even pushing you as a policy. You've been abrasive the entire game, and telling someone to replace out is disgusting.

VOTE: RC

policy for being a poor sport

[Oxy]

If this isn't the lynch today, I will replace out because fuck playing with someone like this.

[Oxy]

Don't join games with me again

Oh, you don't have to worry about that one, buddy

[Oxy]

You realize there was no push to policy lynch you, right? It was a throwaway line in parenthesis. Ruru never even voted you, nor did she say that she thought you should be lynched. Her only votes have been on UD.

Was it nice? Not really. Did it deserve your response. Absolutely not.

[Oxy]

Oh, whoops. I've always seen plurality lynches tiebroken randomly

Hmm. I guess I'll have to put more thought into your opening bit.

[Oxy]

@ruru In the hypothetical world where ties are broken randomly, please explain what you thought the best way of utilizing that mechanic would be.

[Oxy]

Let's say we were at 4:3

It's very difficult to lynch scum, even though there are so many of them. Sacrificing one town for the sake of VCA seems questionable to me at this point. If relying on VCA, there is probably at least one misled town / one scum voting with the town bloc who won't get caught

I think it could be better to random lynch here, because I suspect town's winrate by continuing to play normally is even worse

So in a 4:3 scenario, we would have 1 town in hell, and 1 town in heaven, and would be in a hell phase.

Did you go any further in your analysis of this situation, or was that as far as you had considered?

p.edit From your last posts, I'll assume you did not unless you tell me otherwise.

[Oxy]

Okay, I'm comfortable town binning ruru.

@ruru That situation does bring up an interesting point, though. Thoughts on the following?

If we end up in 4:3, meaning 1 town in heaven and 1 in hell, and we mislynch, we will be at 3:3 JD with 1 town in heaven.

In that scenario, it's up to that single player to correctly scum hunt.

If we mislynch today, I think we should try to send the best scum hunter to heaven, presuming we aren't strongly town reading them.

Candidates include: AP, NM (if a town tell for nm is having good reads, he must be a decent scum hunter), and... NSG/RC

[Oxy]

presuming we aren't strongly

scum

reading them.

ebwop

[Oxy]

What parts are causing you confusion, teacher?

[Oxy]

Continuing my previous hypothetical,
NSG/RC (assuming a town read on nsg) is probably the ideal candidate for a heaven vote since they are the only slot that has two strong players that can bounce ideas off one another.

[Oxy]

Continuing my previous hypothetical,
NSG/RC (assuming a town read on nsg) is probably the ideal candidate for a heaven vote since they are the only slot that has two strong players that can bounce ideas off one another.

are you saying that this could help for judgment day decisions?

also ruru getting better

specifically a 3:3 judgement day decision where only 1 slot has been moved to heaven.

[Oxy]

Mm, "unlikely to be listened to but likely to vote well if town" also seems good to me, and probably has a lot of overlap with a player that we just want to flip

I feel like this description overlaps with at least 2/3 of my list =P

On the other side of the coin, I think that today's lynch, if not for policy, maybe should be targeted at someone who isn't going to eventually obv town.

For a few of you that may well be me =/

for me, it's a list like
Invis (I have no experience with Invis)
UglyDuck
AP

teacher, I think I'll be able to get a solid read on with time for reasons.

[Oxy]

anyway, that's what I've got for setup spec. Got some things to do, but I'll give reads on other players this evening. Just wanted to sort ruru first.

[Oxy]

Gamesolve attempt for comment: town should not vote at all heaven phase one.

In your quest to clear the fog of confusion, you should begin with reading the setup for this game.

[Oxy]

well i guess heaven can get people to Judgment Day but i'm not sure if that makes heavening desirable.

Opinions?

They are discussing not voting during heaven as a way of forcing the mod to give them a provably random lynch. There is no question as to whether or not we're going to send someone to heaven in phase 2.

[Oxy]

@mod if absolutely no one votes during a phase, how are lynches determined?

[Oxy]

Lists in no particular order.

town:
ruru - meta
AP - his NM read
UglyDuck - gut

Null:
teacher
Alchemist
Invisibility

scum:
NM - meta

[Oxy]

somehow i lost nsg/rc during formatting - Null

[Oxy]

Well, that answers that (for now~~)

[Oxy]

rules will be updated to reflect this in an hour and a half (when I get home): if no votes are placed in a phase a random lynch will occur

I think Ruru is probably correct for all "high density" days, such as
(town:scum)
4:3 hell, 3:2 hell, potentially even 2:1 hell
Unless we have solid associations.

Heaven phases are less scum sided since possible heavens are:
6:2, 5:3, 5:1, 4:2, 3:1
But a good argument could be made for 5:3 or 4:2.

Either way, the decision should be made prior to the end of the previous phase because (if I am reading this correctly) unvotes will not create a random lynch situation:

2. Lynches are Complusive Pluraity. No Lynch is not an option. If a Majority is not reached by Deadline, the player with the most votes is Departed. If there is a tie, the player with the earliest last vote will be removed.

[Oxy]

actually, 5:3, 4:2, and 3:1 heaven phases are roughly as scum sided as 4:3, 3:2, and 2:1 hell phases, respectively, because of the higher lynch threshold.

So it might be just as correct to random lynches during that period.

The whole concept of randomly lynching seems pretty boring, tbh.

[Oxy]

@RC
My thinking was that if we mislynch today (send a town to hell)

Then send a solid scum hunter to heaven (say, town!you), and mislynch again in hell phase 2,

town!you would get control of a lynch. This would put a strong scum hunter in 100% control of that lynch

then town would have another hell phase, where we could either lynch or mislynch, and if we did mislynch

town!you would control another lynch. Rinse and repeat to victory.

I'm not saying it's the best strat, and I definitely wouldn't advocate for it if we lynch correctly today (because JD would be far away) but it would be a way to give a strong scum hunter (or in your case, 2 of them) 100% control over all 3 JD (read:lylo) lynches.

thus not only keeping the strong scum hunter in play, but also dramatically increasing the impact of that player (by not forcing that player to convince others of his reads)

@ruru
I think random is probably about equal to not random in a 2:1 scenario. 3 player lylo is scum sided since both town players have to make a 50/50 call correctly. I'm sure the math doesn't work out to exactly 25% chance for town victory because of the order of votes cast and the content of the game, but I'd have trouble believing it is 50/50.

[Oxy]

@ruru Here's a discussion of 3 player lylo math that you might be interested in. As expected, it is scum sided.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=75419

[Oxy]

If I'm going to heaven I want to basically assign the lynches and heavens for the remainder of the game.

Right now it's all hypothetical because I'm not moving my vote unless you stop pushing ruru to replace or die. I was just using you as an example.

All of that fails to factor in the fact that particularly in a nightless game

your reads are far above rand by that late in the game

.

Nightless games continually perform far above EV.

It's almost as if you're not reading the discussion.

I think Ruru is probably correct for all "high density" days, such as
(town:scum)
4:3 hell, 3:2 hell, potentially even 2:1 hell

Unless we have solid associations.

The whole concept of randomly lynching seems pretty boring, tbh.

If we're going to discuss it - and I think it was pretty clear that we were - I wanted to put in a solid framework for the discussion. I feel that I have done so adequately.

[Oxy]

great. Anyway, my thoughts about what scenarios should even be considered for random voting are out there, as are my thoughts about when those decisions should be made.

I'd be happier if we never used that strategy because I think it's a waste of time and fun, so fine by me.

[Oxy]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

It's a very light read. We agree on NM, and NM, if town, is an easy slot to keep in the lynch pool. Thus, the read is marginally more likely to come from town.

I don't know how to read the joke posts, so that's what I've got.

[Oxy]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Not that I'm particularly scumreading AP but why does this read make AP town Oxy?

It's a very light read. We agree on NM, and NM, if town, is an easy slot to keep in the lynch pool. Thus, the read is marginally more likely to come from town.

sorry first cup of coffee still going down. I thought I town read NM in this game for a minute LOL.

Basically post should go to here: It's a very light read. We agree on NM, then skip the next part and continue with I don't know how to read the joke posts, so that's what I've got.

[Oxy]

N_M is on V/LA

hmm I didn't realize this

[Oxy]

One thing I've learned from all my recent bad reads is that not being able to imagine one's self doing something does not make that action AI for someone else.

It will be obvious after my flip that it is in my town range to generate new content, in the moment, when asked to expand upon a read.

It's almost certainly a bad habit developed over years of real world experience in being able to rely on my bullshitting skill to justify what I am confident in but haven't actually thought through.

You'll also note that I realized my mistake almost immediately, and gave a flow of consciousness for what and why it happened, so if I am scum, I wasn't shaken by my mistake.

p.edit It means that RC is reading the slot as being more likely to be town than a random slot (which would have a 2/3 chance of being town in this game) So RC is at least 67% confident in that read.

[Oxy]

@mod please replace me

[Oxy]

@mod please replace me

forgot bold