Open 728: Sharing is Caring (GAME OVER)
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Zoronos Mafia Scum
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Two questions, largely unrelated to each other:In post 1501, davesaz wrote:Mathdino should be able to meta townread me on my posting this game 100%.
Granted I'm gonna look bad association wise. That happens to town all the time. Whatever... On mobile now and thus posting is crippled.
1) What do you think is our scum slate right now and why?
2) How do you reconcile this statement with mathDino’s current vote on you?-
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Have a post reference for this thought?In post 1481, BlackStar wrote:I was looking back at the posts from around the time that everyone was voting jjh and to me it felt like ruru was freaking out a little and was trying to redirect our focus-
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So Math, are you going by association on Davesaz, or do you have other reasons?In post 1507, davesaz wrote:The answer to 2 is that he's going strictly by association (which looks bad and I know it) and ignoring my posting.
The answer to 1 is that I haven't had enough RL time post-flip to have a clue. It's gonna take me at least an uninterrupted RL hour, or several hours of interrupted time.-
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So, let's say that JJH and the_worst were cross busing.In post 1522, HitAlt wrote:
Yes.In post 1488, Zoronos wrote:HitAlt: Was the worst bussing yesterday on JJH, even though he was the second vote? And was JJH counter-busing him (being the second vote after you)?
Why / why not?
Don't know much about jjh, but I know TW wouldn't back down from a bus-wagon after people start to pay attention.
One of the reasons why I stuck to TW all of yesterday was to try and "keep the pressure on him".
While he doesn't crack, I'd still say his hand was forced at least a little.
I'd say his idea for a piece of basic distancing became a hardbuss solely because he didn't want to jump off anymore.
TW is still just likely scum.
And I'm beginning to feel like you are our best hope to actually carry this all the way through Zoro.
Mainly because NSG is now gone, and MathDino might be MaffDino after all too.
Even if I have a hypo-inno on him..(??)
In such a world, do you think third scum is more likely to be on-wagon or off-wagon? Obviously the theoretical third scum couldn't have been on the_worst since that wagon was just you and JJH.-
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Hey Math:In post 1394, northsidegal wrote:dynamic duo ended by the way math
Why did NSG say this?
I originally thought she was expressing skepticism of your towniness (that is 'we're not a special buddy team this game anymore'), then realized during night phase that was the name of a recently-completed game.
So, why did she bring this to your attention?-
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Well, you just said bad votes, PoE, and associations, so, yeah, kinda.In post 1534, Mathdino wrote:Me?
I haven't sat down and done that yet, no
Is that the burden I'm under in order to canvas votes
Your case didn't inspire me to agree with it. I have non-zero latent dave suspicion so I'm going to work on building my own case / making up my own mind on the situation, but your case did basically zero to convince me to vote him.
You want me to follow, you gotta do some legwork or provide something convincing. I don't particularly care what form that legwork takes (and to be frank 'meta' legwork is the kind I'm least likely to follow, because of my viewpoint on the validity of most meta-tells), but what you've given so far isn't good enough.
Why are his votes particularly egregious and not just D1-town-that's-wrong. What specific association makes him scum? Why is his PoE worse than, say, HitAlt's or The_Worst's?-
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That I am happy to do.
Like, I'll work with you to develop a case (which, frankly, I'm kinda toe-tapping waiting on the low post count crowd at the moment for), but self-meta, nk spec, and vague appeals to 'bad votes' aren't what will convince me you're right.
What I will do is work to convince myself whether you're right (or wrong).-
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I agree with ruru.
Pintu: It's anti game-solving because there is no world where S_S is scum and looking through his ISO for 'why maybe the scum shot him for being a PR' doesn't do any good when he's already flipped VT.
If you have done a bunch of stuff then concluded nothing, just don't post it. It's noise that doesn't advance the cause of finding scum. Find scum.
Also the logic of MathDino shooting a maybe-PR over a claimed PR requires 1) MathDino to ignore a claimed PR and 2) a vig to exist that was willing to shoot NSG.
A part of me thinks maybe MathDino is scum here, but of all the reasons why, that's not among them.-
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I agree except I think this normally holds on a mislynch.In post 1608, the worst wrote:IMO it's a pretty classic scum strat to avoid being on the lynching wagon, and push something that will probably never achieve a lynch.
honestly my wagon was so bad I wouldn't be remotely surprised by 2 scum being on it.
Scum tend to want to be on lynches for scum.
Also there’s a leveling component to that argument.-
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When you say this wagon, do you mean the wagon on your, the wagon on HWS, or the wagon on JJH?In post 1610, the worst wrote:In post 1409, Almost50 wrote:Sharing is Caring D1 VC #20+2 (Final)
(expired on 2018-06-06 23:00:00)
Flip in a few minutes
fair call but like...this wagon
Hit and dave being the slots I'd prefer to see flip today, I can't really see either of them organically joining the jjh wagon yesterday. scum will want to be on a scum lynch sure but not if they can't reasonably fabricate a scumread on their buddy.-
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Hmmm...
What opinion of NSG's are you referencing here?In post 1619, Mathdino wrote:OK Dave can be town
Praise be unto gals from north sides
I hereby sheep
VOTE: HitAlt
Lynch TW if he makes it to lylo please
I don't recall seeing her make a statement about HitAlt or Dave but maybe I missed something.-
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How do you distinguish town-but-wrong-about-JJH from scum stonewalling in this case?In post 1627, Mathdino wrote:Hitalt stonewalled the jjh lynch yesterday
Because I can see a world where HitAlt was town-reading JJH due to bias from agreement (they were both on the_worst most of the day).-
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That's not really a rebuttal. If your evidence is 'He stonewalled the scum lynch', how do you know that's a thing he did as scum and not just as town-but-wrong?
Because I know I've certainly argued against scum getting lynched (as town) and been super wrong.
So what's different here? What about the way he did it makes him scum and not just bad-town?-
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HitAlt fell out of my town pile back into the neutral zone, but I have some latent skepticism that scum would 1-2 vote the same target for a majority of the game day and be so blatant about it.
Could it happen? Absolutely. Does it frequently happen? Not in my experience.
I'm not opposed to the notion of scum-HitAlt, but I'm not yet at the point of being convinced it's the right vote. I have some questions pending to him, so I'd like to know more atm.-
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In post 1155, HitAlt wrote:We should lynch TW today.
I won't budge from that.
We lynch jjh927, and we likely hit town.
I wouldn't even feel bad if jjh927 DID flip today, and flips scum. I don't have a strong read on them either way, I just think they give more of a fake vibe, rather than actual scum. I just think we would have way more activity in game against his lynch if he was scum.
Intent was in 1235, so he hadn't claimed yet by this point, but he was stuck at L-2.In post 1182, HitAlt wrote:
Well, since I'm tired of not giving straightforward answers: it's similar to how scum!lurky can be different from PR!lurky.In post 1173, Zoronos wrote:What is the difference in your mind here between a 'fake' vibe and a scum vibe?-
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Basically, I don't think it moves the needle at all.
Town points: Assumes daytalk, and is wrong.
Scum points: constructs scenario wherein he can't be scum because scum math would never suggest a jailer fakeclaim, however without day talk that's not clearing because it's possible math didn't have any input into the jailer claim.
It's not that hard to 'oops I forgot ha ha I'm dumb' as scum, and putting forth reasoning for being conf-town as scum based on things scum-Math would know (lack of daytalk) is borderline. So one thing pushes the needle towards town, and another thing pushes it towards scum. So basically I'm ignoring it as far as towniness goes.
My question wasn't intended as looking for either town slips or scum slips, I'm (as probably can be surmised) thinking about the likelyhood of busing and what other scum would be doing in the wake of a claim. Daytalk, imo, makes clean busing more likely and awkward busing less likely. At some point, I'd imagine a scum team that can talk would realize the ship is going town and coordinate their entry to the wagon. Whereas a scum team that can't talk has to make that decision on the fly, so any busser's entry to the wagon will be less natural.-
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I don't know yet. The massive EoD stall threw off my expectations in a major way. I didn't expect JJH to be scum after that + the claim until HWS countered. Those things suggest scum were probably digging in their heels in a no-bus scenario, since I'd *normally* expect that once scum boarded the bus they'd start advocating loudly for lynch completion with the objective of gaining false town-cred. But we didn't really see that. I had to start digging up votes / preparing to build alternative consensus before Blackstar voted JJH.In post 1649, ofrhz wrote:Oh I didn’t get it after all lol
Who if anyone do you think was likely bussing on that wagon?
If there's a bus vote, my gut says Math or Pintu; I actually liked your pintu case because you said out loud what was percolating in my head but I wasn't ready to commit to yet.
I'm just not sure it fits the rest of the facts we're seeing.-
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HitAlt, you never answered this:
In post 1527, Zoronos wrote:In such a world, do you think third scum is more likely to be on-wagon or off-wagon? Obviously the theoretical third scum couldn't have been on the_worst since that wagon was just you and JJH.-
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In post 1619, Mathdino wrote:OK Dave can be town
Praise be unto gals from north sides
I hereby sheep
VOTE: HitAlt
Lynch TW if he makes it to lylo pleaseIn post 1620, BlackStar wrote:Why do you townread him?
1621 really looks like it's in context of Dave.In post 1621, Mathdino wrote:Again, call it a really bad soulread
I have these mental pictures of how my friends would play as scum and he just hasn't really done that
It's not definite but realistically you're better off just seeing if he makes it to lylo and deciding then
I'm pretty sure Blackstar's question was about Dave... at least that's how I read the exchange.
So you're saying your soul read is on TW, not on Dave.
If so, why is it that you town read Dave now and not previously?-
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What AtE are you referring to here?In post 1684, Mathdino wrote:idk i guess the AtE is working
i did a refresher on his scum meta to check for capabilities
not super impressed-
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So, the other reason I'm *really* curious about Math's read on dave is because of this VC.
I'll explain why if / when Math gives me good reasoning behind his change of heart on Dave.-
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I'm not annoyed at Math's meta arguments, I just don't find meta convincing. I think most people are bad at it so usually will get it wrong, so I don't trust town to apply it properly. Also, I've seen scum more than once say 'meta' to justify reads that don't have justification. So largely I ignore cases predicated on meta. Conversely, I thought NSG's JJH case was excellent. Cases don't have to be long or intricate to be good.
Which is personal preference, and I can see why it would annoy both scum!math and town!math so frankly I don't think it's scummy of math to get annoyed by my antics.
Anyway, the reason I was specifically curious about Math was some interesting (to me) VC reduction that could be done if math is town.
Spoiler: D2 VC
Spoiler: pre-claim D1 VC-
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Also, that's why this is important:
Math's take on 824 in 845 was after his first JJH vote, and immediately preceding the interaction between JJH and the_worst that NSG thought was scum theater (which led to TW voting JJH).
Math was on JJH early, then moved to TW after TW voted JJH, then back to JJH when momentum picked up, which gave me some suspicion that he might be the bus vote. However, 845 struck me as townier since I felt it was a much harder condemnation of a scum-bro than I'd normally expect.
I didn't want to say it out loud (yet) but I was okay implying it, because I wanted to see what ruru and ofhrz thought without biasing their opinions.
If Math is green then question is was he buddying both math and dave or just buddying math while meta-town-reading his scum buddy.-
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I was referring to JJH's early vote on Blackstar for voting me (the one that got NSG onto his trail).In post 1728, Mathdino wrote:It's hard to white knight someone who's universally townread my man
The 'everyone town reads Zor' wasn't quite as solid back then, so there was theoretically more equity in being loud about it.-
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There were only two votes on TW, one of which was yours; there couldn't have been three scum on him because two is less than three. Unless you want to claim scum, which seems unlikely. Are you referring to the earlier wagon where you, JJH, and Math were voting TW before Math hopped back to JJH? Which would have implied both Math and JJH were preparing to bus the worst?In post 1752, HitAlt wrote:Why would the third scum have been on TW?
They didn't want the buss on him to go through.
In jjh's case there was some "testing the waters".
Had the wagon formed more strongly somewhere else, TW could've jumped off permanently, but once he had been on long enough and I had howled for his lynch for days, he wanted to not risk it.
You didn't really answer the question I posed, so I was going to rephrase it slightly for the sake of discussion, and I'll include it here for the sake of posterity, but your reads coloration makes it OBE.
Spoiler: rephrase
Here's the pre-claim VC, using your reads-coloring:
1181 + a couple votes not captured on the VC
Jjh927(6):northsidegal,the worst,pinturicchio, ruru,Mathdino, BlackStar, (+Zoronosdeclaring intent to hammer)
HeWhoSwims (2): davesaz, ofrhz
the worst(2):HitAlt,jjh927
davesaz (1):Zoronos
Not Voting:Something_Smart, HeWhoSwims
This heavily suggests you believe both scum were on the wagon prior to the claim.-
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In post 1743, davesaz wrote:There are 3 people in the nsg quote.
worst wagon, hitalt wagon (was there even a hitalt wagon?); was jjh early or late on said wagons... or maybe on, off, back on?Spoiler: lots of vote links
So to answer your questions:
1) There was never a hitalt wagon.
2) JJH was middle to the worst-wagon but he camped on it while events swirled about. The wagon never grew past 3 players until after the fake-claim, but during the great-lynch-split that was the second biggest wagon for a while.
3) JJH was not under significant pressure when he voted the worst; he was at 2 votes, and ruru left two posts later leaving him at 1. It was also static pressure; he had been at those same two votes for about 90 posts. His Pintu read only got minor blowback (one question, from Blackstar, which never got answered but turned into a JJH vs Blackstar semi-mutual-scumread discussion), but that was his movement (pintu -> the worst). Based on locality, his vote was right after HitAlt's re-iteration of his case 642.
Based on that information, is there anything further you can say about our current game-state?
Do you think the hop-on from JJH was scum-following-scum, scum-opportunistically-following-town, or premature bus?-
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Are you sure about this? After just doing the legwork for Dave's question, there's a 70 post sequence where there were only two votes on JJH-> NSG and TW. TW posted in that interstitial period. Instead he reiterates it in 961, Pintu joins in 999 to take the wagon back to three.In post 1752, HitAlt wrote:Had the wagon formed more strongly somewhere else, TW could've jumped off permanently, but once he had been on long enough and I had howled for his lynch for days, he wanted to not risk it.
Do you think that TW figured he still had time to leave at that point and didn't anticipate the acceleration that would happen over the next ~80 posts, or just decide to say fuck it and keep the bus chugging along?
Worst had only hopped aboard in 862, but then went through the NSG-flagged-theater region. Was that theater the double-down? Because he was only at vote 3 at the time. Think the scum got antsy and felt a need to suddenly distance?-
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Two scum. There are only two scum left.In post 1755, the worst wrote:are you literally just trying to suggest that all 3 scum are in {MD, TW, pintu}?
JJH is ded.-
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1) On reflection, do you think forgetting HWS is an un-CC’ed pr is more or less likely from scum here, or just meaningless?In post 1755, the worst wrote: leaving HWS black and greening yourself is giving me a headache. are you literally just trying to suggest that all 3 scum are in {MD, TW, pintu}?
2) it’s not the worst lynchpool I’ve seen, but I’m not sure it fits with JJH’s actions from yesterday. I’ve had some lingering suspicion on all those people, so it’s not outside the realm of “why would any town suspect X???”
What’s your stance on Dave? I want to see if he does anything with that legwork / questions I did for him / asked him.-
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So, I noticed something about HitAlt, and I'm curious what you think.In post 1789, the worst wrote:my read on Dave literally fluctuates so much
he hasn't been very useful and I'm really not convinced I have a reason to townread him outside his indignation that he should be townread based on meta.
I want Hit today if I can get him but I'll compromise on Dave.
His early play seems openly survivalistic. Not even concealed or subtle, just open 'I want to live'.
However, that seemed to change around 1660 / during D2.
Do you think this is alignment indicating, playstyle, or simply reflective of emotional state?-
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Personally, I think the swaps in votes between the pre-claim wagon and the post-claim wagon are not particularly indicating of anything other than who was in the thread. A lot of people were actively holding off voting because NSG asked for a no-hammer until she could post things (then Math hammered anyway).In post 1760, HitAlt wrote:
And there you have it.In post 1753, Zoronos wrote:This heavily suggests you believe both scum were on the wagon prior to the claim
And the switch in votes implicates...?
And I started to lean scum after my reread on..?
Also, I'm not really sure who you're referring to here with the start-to-lean-scum on. Care to fill me in? Are you referring to Pintu?-
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I’m about to drive home from the gym and deleted a rather caustic reply because I’m having a shitty day.
I’ll write you a longer thing in a bit.
TLDR: I am happy to have a discussion with you, you’re misunderstanding what I actually want from you via-a-vis cases, and I’m trying to get answers from HitAlt and Dave because I’m at coin flip and I don’t like being at coin flip.
I realize you’re impatient and that’s frustrating, and the two of them play slower / have lower availability than the rest of us. I’m trying to sort them before I vote. It’s not because I am trying to burden you or want something from you.-
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