open 759: house party (compleded)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Nancy joins us . She's catching up right now.

it's not a dishonest read on your slot because you don't like what her read on you is

I don't "like" or "dislike" people's reads on me; it's an objectively dishonest read. One major contributor towards the scumread was "omg you want to send all 4 to the party today wow you're mafia trying to inject yourself hurr", which I pointed out was false, which was responded with "I don't care what you say, you're Mafia lamist lol".

The primary symptom of a (poorly executed ) dishonest read is a lack of re-evaluation on new info. Another minor symptom is throwing out buzzwords without substantiation. Mary exhibits both in her read of me, in an objective level. Ergo the diagnosis of 'dishonesty' is accurate.

What do you think about Titus' proposal? We have 2 days so we should consolidate on what we want to achieve first, so we have time remaining to follow through.

-Joffrey Baratheon (Jimothy)

[Inbred Lannisters]

i think that everyone should sheep my house party and then we lynch a 0 poster

Sure.

HEAL: TRT, PenguinPower, Mary Saotome
VOTE: Schiavetto

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

I haven’t read much of the game yet and am still not exactly clear how party differs exactly from coalition. Auro offered to do the triple hydra prior to game start and when on my very brief skim, I could tell that MS was flaming obvtown, I asked if the offer was still open.

~Tyrion Lannister

[Inbred Lannisters]

during each day, you may vote for some amount of players to be added to the Party. if a mafia goon that isn't in the Party tries to kill someone that is in the Party (or vice versa), they will be publicly outed as a mafia goon come morning.

Okay, so different. I will try to do a catch up later.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

I will elaborate if I need to, but I think Michael Scott/Inbred Lannisters is very town.

[Inbred Lannisters]

2-headed hydra replaces as 3-headed hyrda.

I also don't know how I feel about this.

You should feel good because if I honestly thought that slot had even the slightest chance of being scum, it would have stayed a 2-headed hydra.

Ever since Halloween Dance, I try to be very careful about replace ins.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm getting hints of a dance party being requested.

So long as no one posts Safety dance, it’s all good.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

@mod, any chance we could get a 24 hr extension?

I just replaced in and i’m still very confused about the optimal play for the mechanics. All I understand so far, is once hammered, can’t be removed and that mafia can kill in the party but would be exposed, so we should be really careful who is voted into it, since it’s permanent. If being in the party isn’t a good thing, why are we using heal tags over hurt tags?

Anyway, I think since RC invented the game, he probably has the best clue how tf to play it.

Once I understand the mechanics a bit better, I’ll actually be able to tell, which plans are more pro or anti-town.

So far, based on a very few ISOs and currently shit understanding of the mechanics, Dupin, RC hydra, Titus and disagreeing with my hydra partners, HK.

are townleans.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I don’t know who Kirari is but she seems townie. Anyway, I’ll do this for now and Joffrey and Cersei can

scream at me

change it back if they want.

HEAL: No one

~Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

Oh also:

UNVOTE:
HEAL: Nobody

I think this is a towntell because if I replace into a new slot as town, I also prefer to start from scratch and make my own reads, where as I think scum would be more content to just sheep their predecessor.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

Heavy disagreement that HK is a bad lynch because 'no information' - at least one of their heads has been active elsewhere on site; and their only existing posts have no content of importance. Disliking Mary because of both her Fusco vote and also attempt to divert from Hell Knight. I think they deserve a prod by now, though.

Because active on site elsewhere is no reason to scumread a slot. In fact, it's quite stupid. Not that I expect anything less from all of you. People can have many reasons for not wanting to post in a game. Trying to paint it right away as it's scum not posting is really bad. Yes, the HK lynch was bad before. It got to 5 votes on 3 posts that weren't even bad at all. It also wouldn't have given information compared to other slots.

I agree with Mary that being active elsewhere isn't really alignment indicative, but I do not agree it makes Michael Scott/Inbred Lannisters (honestly I'm just going to refer to you as Inbred because thats a great name) scummy for pointing it out.

4 town exactly is auto win yes, but if that's really the strat people are going for the fact you're trying to do that on day 1 is laughable to me! If you wanted to put maybe one townread in? Okay sure I would understand that logic, but all 4? No no. That's just scummy and bad.
VOTE: Michael Scott
If this flips scum like I assume it will I'm pretty sure the other people in his list are town. It reads to me like this guy just wants to sneak his way into the 'auto win' strat. As mafia

Honesty once again I kind of agree with what Mary is saying, expecting to get 4 townies in the party day 1 is way too optimistic, but I don't really agree it's scummy. I mean I kind of understand Mary's logic, it could definitely be a scum play for Inbred to get himself + 3 townies into the party, but on the other hand this could just as well be coming from a town perspective.

Should we want to be in the party? Is it good for town to be in the party, considering scum can kill them? I thought that wasn’t a good thing? Does being in the party make you lynchprooof? This game gets more confusing by the minute. I find “inbred” endearing, so I’m cool with it.

~T

Oh and sorry to disappoint you Mary but we’re 100% flipping town here.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm unfamiliar with duppin.

I don't know how I feel about this.

2-headed hydra replaces as 3-headed hyrda.

I also don't know how I feel about this.

Are you channeling Creature? I don’t know how I feel about this.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I mean, two posts yes, but the two posts are somehow worse than Bittersweet's one post... I don't mind seeing a flip on the slot, and if it's town, whatever.

Now, the appeal of being a House Pet is that then you don't get lynched tomorrow, unless for some reason one of the three in your pool dies which seems very unlikely

. Instead I get to continue enjoying your posts and seeing your gifs. Effectively I'd be forcing you to still be alive on day 3. That's why I'm inclined to make the House Pets players that risk being mislynches but who I think are fundamentally competent if town, but are otherwise likely scum. I think that having vocal, competent players protected from the nightkill and also off-the-table for tomorrow's lynch, while debating the next day's lynch, will be much more fun.

Plus I get to put a collar on you and call you doggy.... :3

So being in the party can sort of make you lynchproof?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Honesty once again I kind of agree with what Mary is saying, expecting to get 4 townies in the party day 1 is way too optimistic, but I don't really agree it's scummy. I mean I kind of understand Mary's logic, it could definitely be a scum play for Inbred to get himself + 3 townies into the party, but on the other hand this could just as well be coming from a town perspective.

Dude, I never said send all 4 on D1. Saying I said that is a lie and scumreading me on that basis is fake.

I've repeated this multiple times. Can you quote me saying send all of them on D1?

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

Should we want to be in the party? Is it good for town to be in the party, considering scum can kill them? I thought that wasn’t a good thing? Does being in the party make you lynchprooof? This game gets more confusing by the minute. I find “inbred” endearing, so I’m cool with it.

Well the way I understand it (feel free to correct me if I am wrong):

If mafia at the party kills a town outside the party or a mafia outside the party tries to kill a town inside the party, mod will reveal them as confirmed mafia the next morning. I think that is pretty much the only effect the party has

Oh so no lynchproof benefit to it then. That’s what the 24 hr extension request is about, because rn I really have no freaking clue. But scum can kill inside their party and or outside of it, if they’re not in it and not be exposed?

So, wouldn’t it make the most sense for scum to kill not outside of whatever category they are then? So how can we confine scum in such a way that they can’t kill without getting caught?

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

We're not going to avoid the mechanic today, Nancy. We follow through with one of the proposed strats. Leashing scumreads is loosely equivalent to protecting townreads FMPOV and it's easier to false scumread someone than false "strong townread" them, giving this an advantage.

Dupin, I was part of the three I healed but I also stated in the same post I'd happily compromise to a subset of that at the time; it was a starting point for negotiation.

Volxen and I both want to leash Hell Knight and Mary at the least. Even if Mary isn't scumread, being a hard to read slot makes her worth leashing (which is also RC's logic from earlier).

Look at Hell Knight's read progression on us. It's >random scum.

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Michael Scott, Kirari MomoBunny, Fuscosco

Oh no you actually did not

Now look at my post saying this and Mary's response to it.

-J

[Inbred Lannisters]

Vote count 1a.2

party vote

PARTY MEMBERS (0):

Kirari Momobami, Mary Saotome, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Yumeko Jabami (2):

Kirari Momobami, Yumeko Jabami

Uncle Bob (1):

Uncle Bob

The Renais Twins (1):

The Renais Twins

Michael Scott (1):

Michael Scott

PenguinPower (1):

Skygazer

nobody (1):

Fuscosco

not voting (7):

Titus, Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Bittersweet, Schiavetto, Gamma Emerald, Mary Saotome

lynch

Hell Knight (4):

Yumeko Jabami, Fuscosco, Kirari Momobami, PenguinPower

Yumeko Jabami (3):

Skygazer, Uncle Bob, The Renais Twins

The Renais Twins (1):

Michael Scott

Fuscosco (1):

Mary Saotome

not voting (5):

Titus, Hell Knight, Bittersweet, Schiavetto, Gamma Emerald

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to choose a group. the group phase ends may 28th at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-05-28 12:20:00)

mod notes

• replacing gamma
  
• had to do an ambitious deletion to get this page top

[/area]

RC hydra is town. I’d bet money on it.

UNVOTE:

[Inbred Lannisters]

Does Tyrion head correspond to Jimothy from earlier?

Anyway this is a really weak reason to townread someone, and getting rid of the baggage from TRT is something I think either alignment does here every time if they're familiar with Ephraim

I'm Joffrey Baratheon, not Tyrion.
I agree it's a weak reason to townread someone. I had the impression the other head never played tho.
I independently sorta want to townread RC slot for that replace - I think his position in the gamestate was one that he'd

want

to be in as scum especially when we were voting to send him to the party, laying low and having an excuse for not getting NK'd. He did state his displeasure at the game before, and it makes slightly more sense as a town rep out.

-Joffrey Baratheon (Jimothy)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yeah it seems rather weird. I sincerely doubt she lied as that would be really silly as it so easy to verify. I can't really blame her for initially thinking you put 4 because I honestly thought as well, but her response to you pointing it out is rather strange, sounds like she just wants to commit to the scumread for some reason. Seems a bit tunnely honestly.

It is, and it doesn't look like a town tunnel. Her response wasn't even "yeah but you're still scum for XYZ";

I think my earlier logic (easier to false scumread over false townread) makes leashing slightly advantageous. Also note that it's not a strict "leash or protect" dichotomy, we can achieve both at the same time. We can send in a obvtown slot or two, and also a couple of scummy slots. What do you think?

Noted re: the rep out. I don't care particularly for "angle-shooting" tbh but I should've checked if it was a siteflake yeah, then it's NAI.

Tyrion is Nancy!

Volxen is Cersei.
Auro is Joffrey.

-Joffrey/Jimothy

[Inbred Lannisters]

I like how you switched the order... makes me feel like Tyrion is roleplaying as Nancy

Or maybe it's that Joffrey is roleplaying as Auro?

Joffrey Baratheon is roleplaying Auro who's still roleplaying Jimothy, because why not?

In any case I think with the high post count it's confusing as-is and I'm less focused on RPing right now so I'll just sign Auro.

-Auro

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Mary, HK, Skygazer

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen AKA Date Mike from the Michael Scott hydra)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Mary, HK, Skygazer, Schiavetto

If we are going to go with the house pets strategy (i.e., heal scummy players) then these four should be healed.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen AKA Date Mike from the Michael Scott hydra)

[Inbred Lannisters]

I don't understand the housepet strat at all?

The "house pet" strategy is that we

ONLY

heal scummy players and add them to the party, the idea being that on each subsequent day phase we continue to add more and more scummy players to the party until eventually the entire scumteam is in the party. If we manage to get the entire scumteam into the party, then this forces them to either 1) nightkill scummy town players that were also placed into the party or 2) out themselves by crossing over the party line to nightkill one of the obvtown players, who would all be outside of the party.

Of course, since there are three scum, they can only cross over the party line two times to nightkill obvtown players (at the most), so the idea is to segregate the scummy players from the obvtown players as quickly as possible. And to keep lynching from the pool of scummy players in the party as long as all of the nightkilled players are also from the party.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

What Kirari said is true - plus, this saves us from the cost of false scumreads to a small extent.

Kirari: Do you find Mary generally readable? If you have a decent read rate on her, and also think she's in <rand scum territory we can keep her. If she's generally unreadable it's a good idea to leash her IMO. PP is a fine add, I'd be fine with either set.

-Auro

[Inbred Lannisters]

For the record, TRT's strategy seems the least stupid out of the options.

TRT, convince me to care about this game. Why aren't you following the right path?

I still am not a fan of anything beyond 50/50 random. If no one joins me close to the lynch, I will pick the least bad option.

We need to stop talking about it though. #hypocrite

Does anyone TR HK?

I don't understand the housepet strat at all?

Considering TRT's strategy was house pets, what's with this dissonance in your posts @Titus? You say it's the least stupid, then that he isn't following the right path, then that you're not a fan of anything beyond 50/50, then that you don't even understand house pets.

Scum alert! Scum alert!

-Auro

[Inbred Lannisters]

I welcome your vote if you feel this way. I just don't understand why we're using new language when we can just say scummy players. It makes the whole thing bogged down in noise. I'm a big fan of say what you mean since I am commonly misunderstood.

Sure, let's assume that you didn't recognize the term, and also didn't read the two-three posts explaining what House Pets means.

You still acknowledged a "TRT strategy" by calling it the least stupid from the options, and immediately called him out for being on the wrong path, and when people began sheeping it you said you're not a fan of anything beyond a 50-50.

This doesn't look like a genuine evaluation and consideration of strats. Besides, what's your own read of HK? Where were you going with the question on HK reads?

@Baezu, why are you not posting in this game? Volxen observes that you're active elsewhere.

-Auro

[Inbred Lannisters]

For the record, TRT's strategy seems the least stupid out of the options.

TRT, convince me to care about this game. Why aren't you following the right path?

I still am not a fan of anything beyond 50/50 random. If no one joins me close to the lynch, I will pick the least bad option.

We need to stop talking about it though. #hypocrite

Does anyone TR HK?

I don't understand the housepet strat at all?

@Titus, Please explain why you are so convinced that a

completely random

50-50 split, with no attempt to separate scummy players from obvtown players, is better than all of the other proposed strategies, such as "house pets" (i.e., sending

only

scummy players to the party to separate them from obvtown players).

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Not getting town vibes from Titus

VOTE: titus

I’m down with healing no one

heal: nobody

You do realize that healing no one is the

absolute worst

strategy, right? It means scum can nightkill whoever they want on night one and there is no way to mechanically narrow down who is scum based on the nightkill. I still think the "house pets" strategy is better than a 50-50 random split, but there is no pro-town reason for us to heal no one. Titus's plan is infinitely better than healing no one at all.

It's interesting that both you and Mary are advocating for healing no one. Considering just how anti-town this strategy is, I have a hard time believing that you and Mary are ever both town in this game. Mary still has more scum equity than you, however, because of her ridiculous push on our slot.


- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: Mary

-Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Im voting nobody.

Fus it's an absolutely horrendous "strategy "to heal nobody. Seriously, please just sheep us on the house pets strategy and HEAL: HK, Mary, Skygazer, Raya36. Healing nobody today just allows scum to nightkill whichever obvtown player they want on night one with no consequences.

It's simple. Do you want to go into day two with at least one scum mechanically narrowed down to a pool of players that is less than the total number of living players? If so then we need to heal people. If not, then why not? This game isn't intended to be played as a pure mountainous game where the party mechanic is ignored. Even ignoring the party mechanic just for day one is bad, because if we wait until day two to start healing people then we can't start mechanically narrowing down scum until day three.

-Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

If I have to wear a bowtie, I'm rocking the cane, monocle, and tophat as well.



My first party...I'm so excited.

Why are you healing yourself instead of Mary? Mary is the single scummiest slot in this entire game, she needs to be added to the party. I would, however, be agreeable to the following five-person party:

{Mary, HK, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36}

Would you agree to that party, Penguin?

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

I think the optimal group size is four, and we should aim to do 4 town over 4 scum. Peanut gallery commentary welcome.

4 townreads if 100% right:

Strong Town Core protected from nightkill and go into phase 2.

4 townreads if X% right:

Scum have to leave the in group alone OR give us a "At least one in three of your townreads are confoscum" scenario.

4 townreads if 100% wrong:

I wish to unsinstall my life thanks. This ironically enough means that scum is forced to shoot "inside the group" if 4, making it the case that a kill inside the group means we lynch inside that group day two.

VS...

4 scumreads if 100% right:

Scum is forced to shoot inside the group, and we lynch within the group.

4 scumreads if X% right:

Scum shoot in the out group most likely. We gain little information?

4 scumreads if 0% right:

Weak scummy looking town is protected, scum shoots within the "out" group and we really didn't gain any info.

If we do 4 townreads; we then know to lynch within the group of 3 if one of the four is shot.

We then completely do different groupings day two so we can start "minesweepering" sort of like people mentioned.

These are all fair points, and the more I think about it house pets is not necessarily the best strategy. It's a great strategy if there are no deep wolves and we are able to quickly get the entire scumteam (perhaps along with some scummy town players) into the party. But if there is even just one well-hidden deep wolf scum, it breaks the strategy as the game quickly turns into "hunt the deep wolf" as all of the nightkills will be coming from the larger group of un-partied players, which would include all of obvtown players and the deep wolf scum as well. So it forces us to try and hunt down the deep wolf scum before hunting down the non-deep wolf scum, which is not ideal. It also means we will be losing one obvtown player after another until the deep wolf scum is lynched.

If we are going to heal the four towniest slots then we should heal {Inbred Lannisters, Kirari Momobami, Edgar Allan Foe, duppin}. I think our slot in particular is the most likely nightkill target, as Nancy is frequently targeted for the nightkill on night one.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, Kirari Momobami, Edgar Allan Foe, duppin

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Oh Lannister, I am just going to facepalm. You are so close.

Healing the four towniest slots has the same hint the deep wolf problem. In both setups we hunt the deep wolf with no info.

That's why equal Random's the ticket.

No Titus, you are wrong. There is a key difference between healing only towny slots (4 to start with) vs healing only scummy slots (4 to start with). With the former strategy of sending four towny slots to the party, if there is a deep wolf, they are confined to the smaller pool of only four players. So it's risky for the deep wolf to nightkill the obvtown players that are in the party with them. As Poe pointed out, if we send the four towniest players to the party on day one and one of them gets nightkilled on night one, we now have the deep wolf narrowed down to 1/3 slots. Whereas with the latter strategy of sending four scummy slots to the party on day one, the deep wolf would be in the larger group of 10 players. So in this scenario, if the deep wolf kills from their pool of players on night one, then the deep wolf is only narrowed down to 1/9 slots (assuming we lynch from the pool of the four scummy players that were sent to the party on day one, which is a very likely scenario). So there is, in fact, a significant difference between the two strategies. The latter strategy of sending four scummy players to the party gives a lot of cover for the deep wolf to hide among a large pool of players. The former strategy of sending four towny players to the party confines the deep wolf to a very small pool.

The overall point is that even if there is a deep wolf that does get sent into the small party of four towny players, the deep wolf is unlikely to actually start nightkilling from their small pool of players until their non-deep wolf scumbuddies have been lynched, because of the significant risk posed to the deep wolf if they do nightkill from their pool (i.e., being narrowed down to 1/3 slots). So it allows us to hunt for the non-deep wolf scum first and deal with the deep wolf scum last (if there are any deep wolves to begin with).

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

The math of sending 4 townreads

---

(Disclaimer: I suck at math, Volxen proof checked this, if anyone finds a gaping mistake let me know)

Let's say we send 4

random

slots to the party today, and play the rest of the game as usual with no further additions. We also enforce the rule that we lynch only from the pool that had a Night Kill in the previous night; which is obvious.

We either end up sending (1) All four town; (2) 3 town and 1 scum; (3) 2 town and 2 scum; (4) 1 town and 3 scum.
The pools end up being [7-3 vs 4-1]; [8-2 vs 3-1]; [9-1 vs 2-2]; [10-0 vs 3-1].

Lemma 1: In the second and third cases, it is always negative EV for scum to perform a NK in the smaller pool (the Party), therefore scum always Night Kills in the House. This implies that both cases are equivalent to a mountainous game in just the house (assuming we don't use the mechanic again).

Lemma 2: When played according to above, exterminating all scum in the House (i.e. the win-con of the mountainous equivalents) almost always wins the game. The worst case occurs only in (2) with a final distribution of 1-0 vs 1-1 in the pools which affects the overall EV little.

By virtue of above lemmas, we can approximate the winning EV to the equivalent mountainous EV for House. The EVs in (1) and (4) are 100% obviously. Therefore, the EVs for each case are (1) 100%, (2) 30%, (3) 60%, (4) 100%.

At random, the chance for each case to happen is (1) 11C4/14C4, (2) (11C3*3C1)/14C4, (3) (11C2*3C2)/14C4, (4) 3C3/14C4 = (1) 33%, (2) 49.5%, (3) 16.5%, (4) 1% respectively.

We multiply the chances for each happening with the corresponding winning EVs, and sum them up to get

Code: Select all

0.33*1 + 0.495*0.3 + 0.165*0.6 + 0.01*1  = 58.75%

Even considering the mild EV drop from the worst case in (2), this implies the winning EV for the strategy

at random

is still

greater than half

, making this a strong strategy. Now, the fact that strong townreads are usually >rand accurate strengthens the case for this strategy.

In conclusion, this is the strategy we should absolutely follow.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Skygazer is a must in the party I feel.

I feel you're town; but I'm not able to understand this part. Can you elaborate on why Sky's town? I don't feel she's done much towny stuff.
Also talk to me about Yumeko: I admit I was actually excited to play with them (I followed one of their previous games and loved the posting style) but they seem... lackluster this game. I don't know if that's a reason to scumread them though - can you tell me why they're your strongest scumread?

This is part of why I think HK is town. This isn't because of anything they did but no one is protecting him.

Umm.. but Mary did, and rather aggressively so? Read the posts where the HK wagon died; do you still hold this conclusion?

Not getting town vibes from Titus

VOTE: titus

I’m down with healing no one

heal: nobody

How are you people happy with Hell Knight's posts? This is a

bad

post reflective of zero thought towards what's going on in the game. I'll go so far as to say that scum realizes that having multiple votes for a heal makes it much likelier to get picked (squared probabilities); healing "nobody" when almost all the players agree it's a crap strategy without any elaboration at all is

very

scummy. Also add the lack of engagement (hasn't responded to my questions), lack of detailing reads, the inconsistency wrt the read on my slot ("scumlean for early shitposts, you've been much townier since then, but still scumlean"), and (idk for angleshooty-ness) activity elsewhere.

VOTE: Hell Knight

I've stated this in chat earlier but I'm wary of healing Kirari - I think there's some deepwolf equity in Kirari ATM and that there are better slots to send to the party.

@Edgar Allen Foe

, can you share reads? What's your opinion on Mary/HK the former who

advocated

healing nobody which is arguably worse than random - I want to know why you'd vote Titus over her.

If we are going to put towns into the hood, I think Foe and duppin are good

HEAL: foe, duppin, fus

1: id prefer voters didn't try to add themselves

You're doing it yourself; why can't we?



-Joffrey Baratheon (Auro)

[Inbred Lannisters]

If we go for the town, I think the only players I feel confident enough in putting in there at the moment are Fus and Inbred

There's a decent chance we add all-town tho for auto-win (this should be holding a large weight) and even in the case this doesn't happen, I think the informational advantage we gain by knowing who healed where, etc. should give the 37% EV a boost.

I share the same confidence about Fus. I'm weakly confident in Duppin and weaker so in Edgar. Paranoid about Kirari so don't want to send him in ATM.
I like RedPanda's entrance and feel it's towny, but not enough to be confident in sending him. I of course want to send my own slot; If people are still concerned that I'm trying to deepwolf my slot into there, I'll search for other optimal sets.

{Michael Scott, Fuscosco, Duppin, Edgar} is a heal set I'm considering for starters.

-Joffrey Lannister (Auro)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Paranoid about Kirari

Since when has this been the case?

When I thought deeper about it. Apologies There's

something

disturbing about your slot and I can't exactly place what it is yet.

The problem with going with the heal-town route is that it limits our play much more going into day 3. The appeal of healing scumreads is that we can heal someone and lynch someone each day until the scum are forced to kill inside the party. If we go with the healing route then we have no way of knowing the overall quality of the healed party and thus there's no reason to continue healing on day 2, which just is a bit more boring and I feel less informative way of playing the setup.

Not a concern, actually.
In the case of all 4 town / 3 scum 1 town, we don't

need

to know the quality of the healed party - We're winning anyway. Scum should concede in these cases. If the game continues after party selection we always assume 8-2 vs 3-1 or 9-1 vs 2-2 and play from there, using information gained from people's heals under the assumption that scum tried to send a member of their own there - which informs us of lynches on the House.

-Joffrey Baratheon (Auro)

[Inbred Lannisters]

And why is sending nobody to the party at 4 votes?

This is indeed a concern as I pointed out earlier. 4 votes = 16 tickets in the selection pool and this seems scum-driven.

Really though, expect to see my posting return to what you're more familiar with soon

Yay! Ok.

-Joffrey Lannister (Auro)

[Inbred Lannisters]

The problem with going with the heal-town route is that it limits our play much more going into day 3. The appeal of healing scumreads is that we can heal someone and lynch someone each day until the scum are forced to kill inside the party. If we go with the healing route then we have no way of knowing the overall quality of the healed party and thus there's no reason to continue healing on day 2, which just is a bit more boring and I feel less informative way of playing the setup.

Not a concern, actually.
In the case of all 4 town / 3 scum 1 town, we don't need to know the quality of the healed party - We're winning anyway. Scum should concede in these cases. If the game continues after party selection we always assume 8-2 vs 3-1 or 9-1 vs 2-2 and play from there, using information gained from people's heals under the assumption that scum tried to send a member of their own there - which informs us of lynches on the House.

To add to this, House Pets actually seems a dangerous idea in retrospect. I don't see how this plays out in the long term - the existence of a single Deep Wolf in the town (say, in the top half of reads) seems enough to break any variation of the "House Pets" strategy whose goal is to lock away all scum out. and unless scum play scummy, we're screwed.

While since we follow the same general rules wrt lynching (only from the NK's pool) the theory random EV is still same as calculated earlier; however the objective of scum if we want to send 4 people would be to send

exactly

one scumread and it's easier doing this in a house pets context.

What's easier? Eventually sending all scum to the House Party (if not lynching them), (OR) sending 4 town?

If we're playing for coalition victory, and are just protecting strongest townreads, then I wouldn't want to commit to all 4 today. I'd rather do something like me and Lannisters, get a two man block, see the flip and the nightkill, and then prioritize solidifying townreads on slots in day 2 for the second heal so we could try to get our 4-man townblock at that point.

Honestly the lurker slots have been replaced by some decent players, there's a lot of pretty townie players but my tier two of townreads (Raya, fusco, dob, edgar) I'm not so confident in that I'd want to bet the game on in the next 24 hours.

It's possible (probable?) there's multiple 4 man winning coalitions among those 4 in addition to me+lan but I just don't feel super strongly about any of them based on what we have so far.

Yes, I've been considering this as well - I'd be more satisfied letting my weaker townreads strengthen over time (EAF, RedPanda etc) and also the chance that a non-poster rises to obvtown status. The caveat is that we lose one major townread (which would obviously be a prob coalition candidate) every day, so the strengthening of reads elsewhere

must

make up for it. Unfortunately we could've gone all-in if everyone was active from the start, but something still worth thinking about.

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

Paranoid about Kirari

Since when has this been the case?

Auro and I have different reads on your slot. I am strongly townreading you (and would be OK with sending you to a party of towny players), but Auro has some concerns about your slot.

Kirari, how would you feel about a party of {Inbred Lannisters, Fus, Edgar, Duppin} to start with? Or a party of three towny players that would consist of us along with two out of {Fus, Edgar, Duppin}?

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

I can get behind this

-bae

Explain:
1. Why you thought healing nobody was something you could get behind at the time inspite of multiple voices against it
2. Why you feel this is a good set to heal (reads inside these 4)
3. Why you disagree that sending obvtown and winning in a coalition-style way (whether at once or over 2-3 days) is a bad idea and won't sheep us
4. Read on my slot and whether you can get behind me to sheep
5. Your strongest townreads and why
6. Why Yumeko. Is Yumeko at L-1?

Unvote. We need to utilise the 7 remaining days

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

I can get behind this

-bae

If Mary is scum then this heal list is clearly desgined to protect Mary and give her free reign to nightkill obvtown players that are outside of this pool of scummy players, and she will start with nightkilling our slot. Which is exactly why it's a bad heal list. If Mary is scum at least one of {Penguin, HK} is almost certainly a partner. Penguin simply took my original heal list of {Mary, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight} and switched Mary out for himself to make it {Penguin, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight}, and that heal list suddenly gets support from people like Baezu. If Mary is scum then it's fairly obvious what is going on here.

You went from wanting to heal no one to now endorsing this heal list even in spite of the fact that it includes you. Why are you for a {PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight} heal list but against a {Mary, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight} heal list? Do you really think that Penguin is more likely to be scum than Mary?

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

I feel like Joffrey wanted to townblock Edgar's slot for some extremely poor reasoning earlier and while the slot is still perhaps likely town, I haven't really put any effort into picking apart the quality of that read yet.

Quote me on reasoning? I've provided none for EAF specifically. I've rubbished the RC townread from

replacement

long ago; my weak townread comes from other reasons. Nancy claims she can recognize RC when he's "obvtown" which I'm skeptical about but still factors in here anyway. I'm looking forward to some specific things from that slot.

After discussing a bit with Volxen, I agree and find it better to just lock away two and use the extra time + info to strengthen the coalition.

I would like it if you can analyze and try forming a read on Fusco deeply. He comes off as obvtown to both me and Volxen.

-Jeffrey Winger

[Inbred Lannisters]

Kirari, how would you feel about a party of {Inbred Lannisters, Fus, Edgar, Duppin} to start with? Or a party of three towny players that would consist of us along with two out of {Fus, Edgar, Duppin}?

I'm fine with Joffrey being nervous about me, I'm less thrilled with him having stronger reads of three other slots that, while likely town, I have a hard time solidifying.

If we're doing a coalition victory, then we don't "start with" the townblocked send. Four town in the house party is the coalition victory wincon, but to do that I would want to be stronger on Fus, Edgar, or Duppin. I feel like Joffrey wanted to townblock Edgar's slot for some extremely poor reasoning earlier and while the slot is still perhaps likely town, I haven't really put any effort into picking apart the quality of that read yet.

It is possible that coalition victory is the more reliable wincon despite my misgivings (and the very high amount of roleplay pleasure I get from the house pets plan). Partly my problem here is that raya and red panda at this point aren't significantly lower for me than fus, edgar, or duppin, so having one 'likely town' player die is not a particularly severe problem for me. I think the only player other than myself that would be a major inconvenience would be your slot.

I feel like I'm shading those slots here and that's really not the intention. I like Edgar, Duppin, Raya, and Red's slots--I just haven't really had a lot of time to mull them over because most of them are replacements from relatively late in the day. Fus I still have just some minor misgivings about early game which I didn't really like his play in, even if he's basically been fine since the little poke earlier.

So if we do want to play for a coalition victory, I'd much rather only pair you and me. I don't know if the rest of the game would get on board with that heal plan, and I also still really like the makeshift flavor of the house pets idea, although it does mean that scum probably kill one of the two of us (probably you) given the high likelihood we don't get all three scum on the initial go.

In this regard, only using the house party to gate the kill away from high-order townreads does hold an appeal, I just don't want to commit to all 4 when we have the lowest amount of information.

What do you think about sending three people initially to the party? Specifically, what do you think about healing {Inbred Lannisters, Kirari, Fuscosco}?

Kirari, we do need to make sure that this heal of {Penguin, HK, Skygazer, Raya36} doesn't go through, as it's just going to give Mary free reign to do whatever she wants if she is scum.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Not feeling that. We do need to use the 7 days but activity picked up because there's a wagon.

Second, I acknowledge your wall reply on game theory. Fact is no one is following me. I don't think I'll get majority and our setup fight bogs down the game. So agree to disagree for game sake?

She's at L-2. Just putting it out there, don't want a quickhammer.

To be honest I've not yet reached the stage where I'd rather 'agree to disagree' - others seem to have indicated you're scummy for strat talk but I feel you're town, and I want to know any honest critiques of my proposal even if you think yours is better.

If you'd be willing to sheep on the strategy for today, I'd like to discuss townreads.

I know you don't really make D1 reads, but can you try reading Fusco and Kirari, and tell me your opinions on them? Rn I want to send Fusc and myself and perhaps Kirari too, so I'm curious to hear what others think.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Get your votes off of obvtown Yumeko, or you’re scumclaiming.





~seriously annoyed Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

Get your votes off of obvtown Yumeko, or you’re scumclaiming.





~seriously annoyed Tyrion

Or WOATS, she’s obvtown in any case. If you don’t want to gamethrown unvote her now!

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: Yumeko

Are you claiming scum Penguin? I just told you, Yumeko’s town? Wtf’s wrong with you?

[Inbred Lannisters]

HURT: Penguin

[Inbred Lannisters]

If we get NK’d, lynch Penguin D2.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

You're fun.

YEAH PenguinPower, we're really, really, really

angry

at you.

(I did point it out to her just now)

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Idk Joffrey, Titus push is decent, like some of the sends, I'm fine leaning town on the slot but I'm not sure what pushes you into "obvtown territory" here over the others. I'm having a hard time following certain reads (hk, duppin)

I think my slot should be obv town by now for a bunch of reasons but if you're having concerns about me feel free to ask.

I think I've detailed my HK read multiple times? Tl;Dr lack of engagement, strategy/read shifts sans explanation, weird read on my slot earlier, etc.

I'm not saying Titus is a bad push ATM - I think she might be town in spite of the valid-sounding reasons to scumread her; so want to engage more before I form a read either way.

Duppin's posting feels agenda-less and transparently town to me, and Nancy seems to be town locking him. The more I read his posts the better I feel about him being town, actually.

As for the Yumeko thing I don't really have a read there, but Nancy feels she's obvtown (hasn't explained it to me, just gut I suppose) but yeah I'll wait till Yumeko posts significantly before I judge that slot.

Anything else you can't follow from my slot?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Oh nevermind you're talking about Fusco. Dumb me, I need to get to sleep.
Yeah in the meantime I've sort of demoted Fusco from my reads anyway, more interested in Duppin now.

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

Not that it helps matters but detailed read walls are not getting done today. My secretary wrecked my morning so lunch is catch up.

It's okay Titus, no rush.

I'm just thinking about who I'd ideally heal apart from myself, and would appreciate external perspectives (besides convincing you to sheep me for the heal).

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'll answer that but don't expect any heal sheep. I'll cooperate and scumhunt but I am fighting for the correct play until I 1000% have lost.

There's a day to deadline for heal.

If everyone's against the random strategy, you've effectively "lost", Titus - a single ticket with your heal wouldn't get selected most likely. Instead there's another strategy which, from your perspective shouldn't be **bad**; unless you have reasons to not townread me, you'd be pro-town in sheeping my heal. By not doing that, you're ensuring that scum indirectly have a greater say in the heal.

Should I still not expect a heal sheep?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

No Kirari, with a 7-7 split it's *far* likelier we have a 2-1 or 1-2 scum split. All it takes for scum to benefit in that situation is to not be too scummy and avoid being the lynch, while they remove Towny slots in the night. (Which aren't really of use now since the mechanic's only used D1)

We make it harder for scum by eventual coalition because of a high bar of entry, making it a superior solution to any variation of House Pets.

Please let's do the extended coal, and hash out slots which are strong town enough to be sent in.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yeah but with a 1-2 split, which is the scenario that's more likely, then we have 7 in the main pool; scum kills 1, we lynch one and remove one, and then we have 4 = 4 man townblock *after* we have more information. A 1-2 split is not a huge problem, only a 2-1 split would be which I don't think it is.

Dude a 1-2 and 2-1 split are equivalent, no?
Main pool's 6-1 and Party's 5-2
We mislynch in party: 6-1 vs 4-2

Now which path takes us to a 4 man town block? The NK will definitely be in the House (6-1) and the chance you'll lynch scum in House isn't high (check Mountainous EV). What's the path that achieves the autowin town block? If it's reliant on an early scum lynch then this argument isn't particularly strong

The *problem* is that even one scum in either party can cause havoc - which is why I support the idea of setting a high enough bar of entry.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I don't believe scum have played in such a way that they're all in bottom 7.
The most probable case is the NK of my slot. What new information will that give you, if you're already strong on us being town?

Please, help on identifying obvtown players.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

If scum kill in the expanded town then it's 6 in the expanded town, and day 2 we lynch one and house party another, and end up with 4 town in the expanded townblock. If we still have a scum in the townblock at that point then we were probably going to have a scum in the 4 man townblock anyway.

By expanded town you're saying House, right? Your premise being that when House is at 6-1, lynch the scummiest and send the second scummiest to the Party: thus ensuring auto if scum is in the bottom two slots of the 6, yes? Otherwise, it goes to 4-1.

Which means scum have to be in the top 5 slots to avoid the auto condition. The cost for town? You lose the obv town slots from Night Kills in the process. Also, weaker condition.

I'll think about this and solidify any final thoughts later.

@Titus: Protect weaker players from what? Does your long term vision involve further transfer of players from House to Party? Town doesn't know the distribution of scum in the pools - the only information you gain from a NK is that there's scum in that pool.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

If you don't think this includes all three scum then say who should be in it

The slots which I feel are town but could also be DWs which is probable in this gamestate, don't you think?

I don't know who's scum in the other 7, but independently of my reads on the slots I feel like there must be a DW up here from gamestate.

It's safer to bet on solidifying just one townread in this pool fmpov.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Who supports a Kirari/Lannister heal for day 1?

I actually don't ATM sorry. You're at the top of my paranoia reads; I want to heal with a different townread, even though Volxen townreads you strongly. I understand it's sort of a jerk move when this means we lose one of the only seemingly active co-operative town if you're town.

I'll think about it much harder but yeah, I hope you'd be willing to take a tiny leap of faith and send another obvtown slot (after we reanalyze and establish obvtownness for a couple of slots you're not sold about).

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

And remember that if there's a confident enough read we both agree on, and they're voting it as well we get 9 tickets which is significant. If *anyone* else sheeps the heal (I think Duppin will, since he obv town reads us) it increases that to 16.

Not too difficult.

-JOFFREY

[Inbred Lannisters]

You're not going to get 6 people to coalition you and dup in the next 20 hours and continuing to try to send townreads into the house party is playing against wincon because it's really looking like we won't get a consensus at all. If the send is randomized it should be exclusively composed of scumreads or lynchbait poes.

Would you support healing {us, Duppin}?

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, Duppin

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Edgar and Duppin, you guys should sheep us and HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, Duppin

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

If you had to swap Duppin out, who would you put in. Now, same question but yourself.. Does that have the same answer?

If I swap out myself, Dupp and Fus. Insurance against the remote possibility of both scum.

If I swap out Dupp, not really sure. Vetoed Kirari as a candidate. Prolly gonna be between you and Fus, I'm not really super townreading you but Volx does and Nancy's sure your predecessor was obvtown and is very confident there.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I think Yumeko has been hammered, and this is disappointing.
Seems blatantly scum driven to stifle discussion.

Edgar any other questions? I'm sick today, I don't think I'll be active.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I was gonna follow up and ask how that insures exactly

Think about it. Duppin wants to send Fusc in with me. It's suboptimal for two scum out of three to go to the party alone. (I've done the math)

So in the remote case that Duppin's actually scum trying to send his scum buddy Fusc with me to the party, replacing myself with Dupp would backfire and hence insure against that possibility.


-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Sooo....you didn't read the setup or....

I thought the lynch vote happens in parallel and the day would end once the heal deadline finishes?

I'll read it again.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I thought the lynch vote happens in parallel and the day would end once the heal deadline finishes?

I'll read it again.

Ok I don't know where I got that assumption.

@mod Lynch votes refresh to 0 on the end of group phase, right?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Fusc why Duppin? Why aren't you townreading him?
Will you not sheep me on my heal?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Its an okay heal list.

So you're ok with healing Duppin even if he's in your lynch pool? How come?

Sheep us then?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Im kind of keeping an eye out for people who want sheepvotes and want to push specific people into the hood. or keep them out of it.
Also, like I said before, trying to put yourself in the hood is extra vain and kind of like including yourself in your own readlists.

You're thinking people in the party get their own neighborhood?
I think putting myself in the party is optional fmpov - I'm being obvtown read by many slots, and I think I'm the most obvious NK target going to the night.

Pedit: Great!

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

A scumme wouldnt be interested in killing somebody like you N1. No offense guys.

Lol, no offense taken. Nancy usually gets N1 killed tho

Did you really assume Party is a neighborhood?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Really irks me when people say that

Context. I was explaining why fmpov it's good to heal myself based partly on *my* belief I'd be NK'd otherwise. I'm just explaining my position.

[Inbred Lannisters]

@Lannister

How do you feel about Mary, Kirari, and Foe?

I think I've stated these before.
Mary is super scummy.
Kirari looks like town, but there's some deepwolf equity and not someone I'd want to send.
Foe's towny. Not really strong there yet, but Nancy is. I need more content from that slot to solidify.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I kind of want foe in for sure.
Im psure kirari is a good NK for scum and is reasonably town to me.

Explain townread on Foe.
Yea Kirari is both of those things. Still don't want to send him, because of the deepwolf equity. Don't want to explain that rn

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, duppin, Fuscosco, Edgar Allen Foe




~Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Inbred, Duppin

Duppin sheep this. Why would you want to add Fus over yourself? You're confirmed town to yourself

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Pick a god and pray?

Edgar, we don't have enough time to get the people voting {Inbred, Duppin} to vote for the four block. Nancy wanted it because of consensus but we barely have a few hours right?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Aw shucks, the deadline ended. Is the lynch going through?

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

We have three and a half hours. Since we won't hit a supermajority I'm gonna pick my favorite and if I gotta swap last second? I'll be around.

Huh the deadline says expired for me. Weird.
I'll recheck and be online too, I'll swap to the four one if we manage to get Red and Dupp vote for it.

(I did kinda want to make the coalition over time but Nancy thinks Edgar is obvtown)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Still Lannister, I'd never agree to a plan that assumes town fuck up. We do occasionally but I have to suppose town are good.

Town screw up how? Why does my plan assume that?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to choose a group. the group phase ends may 30th at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-05-30 12:20:00)

Yea my bad, was looking at the pre extension deadline in the first post.

@Fusc: You too ready to be around in case Red and Duppin aren't, cool?

HEAL: Edgar, Lannisters, Fusco, Duppin

Will be ready to change it back given we don't get the others online.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

There's a thing she STILL hasn't picked up, it would seem. Old habits die hard.

Which is?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Ok lol the phrasing made me think it was a setup slip

Meanwhile what's your take on Kirari?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Meanwhile what's your take on Kirari?

I'm here; here's something we can talk about

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

the first person that tells me where to vote gets my sheep

sheep my heal

[Inbred, Fusco, Duppin, Edgar]

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm around. We're at 4 votes for our heal and it's a pity Duppin/RP have been offline.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

party vote

PARTY MEMBERS (0):

Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Raya36, Skygazer (3):

Yumeko Jabami, PenguinPower, Hell Knight

duppin, Inbred Lannisters (2):

RedPanda, Duppin

nobody (1):

Mary Saotome

Edgar Allan Foe, Inbred Lannisters, Fuscosco, Duppin (4)

: Edgar Allan Foe, Inbred Lannisters, SkyGazer, Fuscosco

Hell Knight, Mary Saotome, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Titus, Uncle Bob, Yumeko Jabami (1):

Kirari Momobami

Uncle Bob (1):

Uncle Bob

Skygazer (1):

Raya36

not voting (2):

Titus

If I'm not wrong.

Titus please sheep me?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

i think we lynch yumeko

Does it auto-happen or do votes get reset?

I disagree and I don't think we should lynch Yumeko today if we have the choice.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I bought my fancy clothes for nothing.

You have a 9/33 chance of making it to the party so don't fret just yet.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Instructions unclear, vote ended up in tree.

"As normal" doesn't necessarily mean reset

-Jeff Winger

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yumeko Jabami (8): Skygazer, Uncle Bob, PenguinPower, Titus, Kirari Momobami, Hell Knight, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

^The Yumeko wagon.

I'd lynch Hell Knight, Uncle Bob, Mary Saotome. Maybe Raya36.
I'd also lynch PP, I'm wondering why he's in your second tier of reads - elaborate?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yes. That's my ideal strategy.

RNJesus but c'mon you're content with Penguin's party having a 9/33 chance...

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I REALLY don't see why people are scumreading him to the extent they are, perhaps we could start by triangulating on what you dislike there?

I'm sorta just annoyed by his play and his participation in that rapid party wagon. I haven't really tried to form a read beyond "Not letting this guy go to the party" but I'll try.

Meanwhile, Nancy has said to me in Discord earlier that Penguin not questioning her Yumeko TR and defending his vote is a scumclaim; She says Penguin is "easy to read" and is either obvtown or obvscum, and that the contrast between this game and Boon's LNT (where he was town) is "mind blowing". She's not gone into further details. She was also pretty pissed when Penguin did the Yumeko fakehammer.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Amusingly, we disagree on many of the reasons and methods of reading penguin; then.

Perhaps I should directly strike up a convo with Nancy's head when she's around?

Moving right along, raya?

Yes please! She has these very strong gut reads (from tone?) but doesn't really go into the details when I ask... it's best you just talk to her

you should paraphrase nancy's read on me like nowish

You were only mentioned once. "I think I might be able to read Mary and definitely Sky", but no reads on you.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Raya has too little content to actually form any proper read from, 8 posts in the span of 2 hours. Treating it as a lurker slot.

-Jeff Winger

[Inbred Lannisters]

Same applies to who else in your lynchpool? Just Raya and Bob?

Yeah. Hell Knight has also been a lurker but they've been to the thread through the days and their content sucks.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Very town!
His line of strat has been what I think is best from the start and wasn't inconsistent; his reads matched mine a lot; sheeped my {Inbred, Duppin} heal...
I found his strong townread on TRT ick, but then he said this:

Also someone please tell me who RC is.

If your slot's town and he's scum I'd be hella surprised he wouldn't know who RC is.

What do you think about him?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

In retrospect I think I might have felt happier replacing Fusc with him in the heal...

Pedit: I mean cool but the same reasons?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Amusingly, we disagree on many of the reasons and methods of reading penguin; then.

Perhaps I should directly strike up a convo with Nancy's head when she's around?

Moving right along, raya?

Just like Nero was obvtown...huh, Nancy?

I think you’re (Penguin) is being very different here than in LNT. When I objected to Yumeko wagon, you neither questioned my position nor defended your vote on him, which I thought was odd but Joffrey said you were like that in that Newbie game he played with you, so I dunno now. I know I would question it if the situation was reversed.

Why do you think Yumeko is scum and the best wagon because I’m not seeing it?

I could ask Sky the exact same question.

[Inbred Lannisters]

you should paraphrase nancy's read on me like nowish

Why are so fixated on my read on you? I think you’re on a really bad wagon, other than that I don’t really have a strong read on you yet.

[Inbred Lannisters]

i dont think im fixated? i asked because you do talk about being able to read me well a lot so figured it'd come up in the hydra chat if y'all were town and be less likely to pop up in the hydra chat if y'all were scum

Because I replaced in rather late and the party deadline was approaching, we were mainly focused on which townies to put in our party along with us as well as who were our strongest sr. So, we haven’t spent a lot of time parsing slots, that we didn’t so far have strong reads on either way.

~Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

(im very behind so i honestly dont know if yumeko is the best wagon or not esp after seeing the wagon composition)

UNVOTE:

Anyway, I think you might be town for this, so I’d say townlean. I had a slight one initially and this definitely intensified it.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I think you’re (Penguin) is being very different here than in LNT.

I barely posted at all and was in a hydra D1 so I don't think that's a good comparison tbh. Don't attribute my D2+ play to my D1 play.

Okay, I didn’t take that into account. I don’t think it’s any secret that our hydra is not exactly a fan of the wagon composition on Yumeko, so I still don’t understand why she was the top wagon?

[Inbred Lannisters]

{duppin, Edgar Allan Foe, Fuscosco, Inbred Lannisters} has 4*4 = 16 points; dice roll 1-16
{Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Raya36, Skygazer} has 3*3 = 9 points; dice roll 17-25
{duppin, Inbred Lannisters} has 2*2 = 4 points; dice roll 26-29
{Hell Knight, Mary Saotome, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Titus, Uncle Bob, Yumeko Jabami} has 1 point; dice roll 30
{Uncle Bob} has 1 point; dice roll 31
{Skygazer} has 1 point; dice roll 32
∅ has 1 point; dice roll 33

Original Roll String: 1d33 (STATIC)

1 33-Sided Dice: (10) = 10

Can someone translate this for me?

[Inbred Lannisters]

???

[Inbred Lannisters]

Glad to see we went with the house pets strategy, now the actual game can begin.

VOTE: Inbred Lannisters

Deep wolf theory gaining momentum or if I’m wrong, lamist gamethrowing WOAT also works.




~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

Actually, Cersei just told me, our party won, so heavily leaning Kirai wolf now. Scum can’t kill us tonight without being outed, so why not kill our biggest threat, one way or the other?

[Inbred Lannisters]

I wasn't chosen for the party...thought that was somewhat obvious.

You're in the party with two wolves that there's no reason to lynch inside rather than the party with one wolf, so that's nice.

Oh? Who are the two wolves, you think we’re in a party with? Oh keep up that open wolfing.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Please stop trying to spam post, scum, it's not a good look for you.

Spoiler:

I hope I don’t get banned for posting your rl picture.


But seriously, if you’re actually town here, please stop being an idiot.

But really glad Joffrey objected to you being in party now, because if you’re open wolfing here, it’s beyond freaking obvious what you’re doing.

[Inbred Lannisters]

I actually think this is great, we have the deepwolf isolated to 4 slots, so we can start lynching in them while feeding more into the house pets to create an actual townblock.

I'm not sure if this is scum, really bad town, or if my illness made me delusional.

Your guess is as good as mine. We’re leaning town on you too.

I’m leaning scum only because scum knows they can’t kill us, so it makes sense they’d try to kill us one way or another.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Actually, Cersei just told me, our party won, so heavily leaning Kirai wolf now. Scum can’t kill us tonight without being outed, so why not kill our biggest threat, one way or the other?

Exactly why scum wanted to control the party formation and go with the fake townblock, so that there could be a lazy explanation for why the slot isn't nightkilled.

Wow! you’re such a genius.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Oh? Who are the two wolves, you think we’re in a party with? Oh keep up that open wolfing.

IL apparently can't even keep track of which town they think they townblocked with and now think Penguin is in their party, ok

Wtf??? Protip: whatever your alignment is, you’re not doing it proud with this.

Do you lack reading comprehension skills? Where the fuck are you even coming up with this?

But hey thanks for making this game entertaining anyway. Outside of my meme and gif posting, it was kind of getting boring, so thanks?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Policy lynch KM?

First partner/white knight right here

If you’re town, I hope you don’t usually play this horribly.

You’re scumsiding either intentionally or unintentionally.

Still lean wolf though because it’s just too freaking over the top and the timing of your vote is hella suspect.

What happened since the party was confirmed, that suddenly made you vote us but not before?

Why didn’t you vote us before now? Maybe because you were one of those housepets you wanted in party to hide out in? And now that you did get your way, we’re suddenly your #1 sr?

Yeah, not even remotely suspicious.

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: Titus

Now we can lynch here

VOTE: Kirai

You moved your vote only because I caught you.

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: Kirari Monobami

[Inbred Lannisters]

UNVOTE:

[Inbred Lannisters]

Nancy stop playing like it's 5 minutes ago lol

Why do you keep changing your vote?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Kirari might be town afterall.

I think the best chance to find scum is on Yumeko wagon. It almost went through with hardly any resistance. So, we probably have a better town here in in Timeshift although, you could probably say that about any mafia game ever.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey and Cersei are most convinced on Mary/HK.

I’m getting pings of scum!Maria because town!her very rarely plays town leader but main reason is sending no one to Party is the most proscum strategy because it lets scum kill without worrying about getting caught. HK sheeping her on that plus her less than impressive ISO, doesn’t give me warm town vibes either.


I should probably also look at who voted for other party. Not one of those slots looked like viable NK targets to me and a no one - that group is hardly surprising.

Penguin, I’m just watching for now. He implied he will obvtown on D2, so I’m looking forward to that to seeing that.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Spoiler:

VC is inaccurate, I'm healing 4 as of 330. But I'm changing anyway.

HEAL: Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Mary Saotome, Skygazer

VOTE: Hell Knight

I think the problem that Lannisters is feeling is that while the House Pets strategy is basically fine, we're not being aggressive enough with it.

The situation we have right now is:
-we have a lot of low activity mislynchbait
-we have a fairly large pool of lightly townread players that are not effectively eliminated from being deepwolves
-we have a very small pool of high tier townreads and even those are not universally shared

With that in mind, I'm thinking the House Pet strategy as a core is fine, and the reason it's getting so much pushback is because we are not including enough people. We can actually be aggressive in sending to the party, because our core goal is just to get all the mislynchbait and scum all into the same pool, since if we end up with something like only 4 town in the main block we win.

So let's go this way

HEAL: Titus
Hell Knight
PenguinPower
Mary Saotome
Yumeko Jabami
Uncle Bob
Skygazer

I'm actually indifferent to a yumeko lynch at this point even though I'd prefer HK.

We can put 7 in the party and even though this means we're guaranteed to put at least 4 town in, that means that if there is a nightkill in the main pool of 7 that it's that much more informative for us going into d2.

This also fits with the initial arguments that we should have a larger pool of players partied d1.

You were in both of my alternate sends. One was -raya +Mary, the other was a 7-group send. You had no reaction to either one, and you were included in both alternates

Joffrey or Cersei will have to address this. I still haven’t read the entire game.

[Inbred Lannisters]

vote count 1b.0

lynch

Yumeko Jabami (6):

Uncle Bob, PenguinPower, Titus, Hell Knight, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

Hell Knight (4):

Yumeko Jabami, duppin, Inbred Lannisters, Kirari Momobami

Titus (2):

Fuscosco

not voting (3):

Raya36, Edgar Allan Foe, Skygazer

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. day 1 ends june 6th at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-06-06 12:20:00)

mod notes

• go !

Oh, we’re already on HK. Why is Fus voting Titus?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Vote count 1a.6

party vote

PARTY MEMBERS (0):

Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Raya36, Skygazer (3):

Yumeko Jabami,

PenguinPower, Hell Knight

duppin, Inbred Lannisters (2):

RedPanda, Inbred Lannisters

nobody (2):

Mary Saotome, Edgar Allan Foe

Hell Knight, Mary Saotome, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Titus, Uncle Bob, Yumeko Jabami (1):

Kirari Momobami

duppin, Edgar Allan Foe, Fuscosco (1):

Fuscosco

Uncle Bob (1):

Uncle Bob

PenguinPower (1):

Skygazer

Skygazer (1):

Raya36

not voting (2):

Titus, duppin

lynch

Yumeko Jabami (8):

Skygazer, Uncle Bob, PenguinPower, Titus, Kirari Momobami, Hell Knight, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

Hell Knight (3):

Yumeko Jabami, duppin, Inbred Lannisters

Titus (2):

Fuscosco, Edgar Allan Foe

not voting (1):

Raya36

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to choose a group. the group phase ends may 30th at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-05-30 12:20:00)

mod notes

• prodding uncle bob

Since I’m assuming failed wagon was supposedly house pets’ wagon? Why are HK and Penguin voting to be on it?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey or Cersei will have to address this. I still haven’t read the entire game.

The question was at Penguin, Tyrion.

Oh sorry.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Hi...it's almost like the more people who vote for a send, the greater chance it has of being chosen. Leaving the one I was one to entertain your other proposals when it had no traction would decrease that (hence the second quote).

Amazing.

The send that had no traction was the one that had both you and Hell Knight voting for yourselves to be sent as House Pets.

Vote count 1a.6

party vote

PARTY MEMBERS (0):

Hell Knight, PenguinPower, Raya36, Skygazer (3):

Yumeko Jabami,

PenguinPower, Hell Knight

duppin, Inbred Lannisters (2):

RedPanda, Inbred Lannisters

nobody (2):

Mary Saotome, Edgar Allan Foe

Hell Knight, Mary Saotome, PenguinPower, Skygazer, Titus, Uncle Bob, Yumeko Jabami (1):

Kirari Momobami

duppin, Edgar Allan Foe, Fuscosco (1):

Fuscosco

Uncle Bob (1):

Uncle Bob

PenguinPower (1):

Skygazer

Skygazer (1):

Raya36

not voting (2):

Titus, duppin

lynch

Yumeko Jabami (8):

Skygazer, Uncle Bob, PenguinPower, Titus, Kirari Momobami, Hell Knight, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

Hell Knight (3):

Yumeko Jabami, duppin, Inbred Lannisters

Titus (2):

Fuscosco, Edgar Allan Foe

not voting (1):

Raya36

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to choose a group. the group phase ends may 30th at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-05-30 12:20:00)

mod notes

• prodding uncle bob

Since I’m assuming failed wagon was supposedly house pets’ wagon? Why are HK and Penguin voting to be on it?

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yeah, the #2 wagon was the house pets group I created pre-replacements, and none of the people who supported my pre-replacement house pet group would adjust or reevaluate after the replacements joined the game which is ???

Then again HK has been scummy all game but Penguin reassessing nothing after like three replacements is extremely suspect to me even if he wanted to roleplay his way into a house pet party

I’m not opposed but he implied he would obvtown D2, so if he doesn’t, lynch him then?

[Inbred Lannisters]

UNVOTE:

Alright, for now.

[Inbred Lannisters]

@RedPanda: I knew exactly how the quadratic lottery mechanism works, so I don't understand that premise?

Adding two more was a leap of faith I took. Nancy very strongly obvtown read EAF. I was townreading Fusc, and the rest of my townreads also strongly townread Fusc. I would've been a bit more comfy with my previous send but whatever.

-Joffrey

(PS: if the post is unsigned it's probably Nancy)

[Inbred Lannisters]

FFS, there's a week until deadline and we've barely posted, take some votes off.

I've read through page 10 and here's where I'm at:

Skygazer - town
Fuscosco - town
Uncle Bob - town, but concerned his posting had dropped off
Michael Scott - lean town. Some very townie posting but some things concerned me, like defending his vote on a lurker (us) that early in D1 when there were numerous active players.
Yumeko, Renais twins - hard nulls. I don't like hard nulls.
Kirari - scummy most of the way, but 211 looked better
Titus - Null at first, but didn't like the prodge posts. Prefer an honest prodge. Lean scum.
Penguin - scum. Hasn't done a damn thing. Last time I saw him as town, he was trying. Failing, but trying.

Barely posting ... In other words, never engaging and answering questions? It's not like your other head flaked out, she did appear to post bad content.

I've happily wagoned lurkers who were present elsewhere on site in previous towngames IIRC.

Interesting that this list doesn't contain Mary Saotome, given she was pretty active in the first 10 pages. What's your read on her?

-Jeffrothy

[Inbred Lannisters]

We're a three headed Hydra lol, that was Nancy.
She doesn't seem to be signing her posts.

-Jeffiere

[Inbred Lannisters]

I was never worried about getting NK'd post hearing we were in the party. That's not at all the optimal move for scum assuming one scum in party; won't happen.

Kirari, which reads of mine concern you (apart from the Fus read, which is less relevant now)?

And yeah, FTR I did have the final say in the coalition.

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey whats your read on penguin?

Think I mentioned this before. I'm leaning scum, but I dunno. Nancy however thinks he's obvscum.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Except you're extrapolating one bad read to having bad reads in general this game.

How does that inform your lynch pool?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I want you to ignore your general read and look at the party votes and his last few posts.

From the party votes, I'd say it's likelier that Hell Knight is scum over PenguinPower.

Noting that scum wouldn't want to send two of themselves to a party of four, but exactly one - suggests that two scum won't both vote on a heal that contains both of them. I'm also making the weak assumption that scum would not want to send two town to the party either; so Fus willing to send me and Duppin *and* Duppin willing to send me and Fus *and* is slightly town indicative.

Thing is, I can imagine town Penguin doing what he did this game. There are scummier slots like Mary and HK; I'd lynch there first.

Also, I think I'm adding Skygazer to my lynchpool. Not giving reasons now.

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

huh? you being bad does not really affect my reads much

No, the assumption that there's one scum in the party.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

smells like moonlogic

Don't care - this entire discussion is irrelevant and there's no changing the past; whatever, sure bad reads blah blah game costing yadda yadda.

We're not lynching in the party.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

It's not really irrelevant when it's now much more likely that you will at some point have to choose which of the three people you insisted go into the party is scum. It's a conversation that can wait but it's not a conversation that can wait if you want to have it while I'm still alive, given you decided to ask scum to kill me.

At which point, and why?

Do you imagine a stage where we'd Lynch out of the party? Ergo a NK in the party?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Unlikely, it's not a good idea for scum to kill in the party until there are three mislynches and we get to 4-2 vs 3-1.

And then we'd have a lot more info driving the lynch in that case.

You still haven't answered: How have the party votes informed your reads, or have they not had any effect at all - considering there's prolly one scum in the party?

Also you seem to have dropped a few tells which make me think I know your main... If I'm correct that's gonna give you some scum points

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

This makes sense but If this party is all town, there is the possibility that scum didn't have a better group.

If this party is all town scum should've conceded by now tho.

There's only one way they can win, but that's impossible to pull off and if they ever try it, it'll be a transparent scumclaim.

If there's no conceding, we assume exactly one scum in the party and work from there.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Unlikely, it's not a good idea for scum to kill in the party until there are three mislynches and we get to 4-2 vs 3-1.

Sorry, mistake here
3-2 vs 3-1.

[Inbred Lannisters]

You still haven't answered: How have the party votes informed your reads, or have they not had any effect at all - considering there's prolly one scum in the party?

I mean how have the party votes affected your reads of people in the House now?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm not going to pre-flip Fusco and I also don't buy your moonlogic about the order of votes so yeah, I'm basically ignoring that entire argument.

Of *course* you're not going to pre flip Fusco.

My question has nothing to do with that "moonlogic" argument, and cool - noted that the final heal votes didn't influence your scumreads from House in any way (they did mine).

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: HK

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

We need a wagon today, the hk focus is weak

Propose a better wagon.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Sky (if everyone in the party is town then Sky is pretty much confirmed town - however if Sky is scum there is most likely a scum in the party)

Good observation.

However as scum haven't conceded, we assume there's one scum in the party. This lends considerable scum equity to Skygazer, and if there's not much town equity in her posts she becomes a good candidate for a lynch. (That's why I added her to my lynch pool)

Also based on similar reasoning, Mary flipping scum would indicate Edgar town: Edgar's predecessor, a player who holds a lot of influence in the game proposed a heal of himself, Mary and Penguin and wouldn't do that if he were scum with Mary.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

What's HK at right now?

hk is an easy out lynch. i dont like LHF lynches as a rule; they havent been here, but I def scumread the,

wtf is wrong with you people. havent you ever heard that activity!=Alignment.

OK Fus, this argument needs to stop being brought up once and for all. First of all, deliberately committing the ellitell all throughout the game

SHOULD

be a genuine cause for concern -- especially when I know for a fact that Baezu strongly prefers to play town over scum. I recently played with both town!Baezu (Normal 2067) and scum!Baezu (911: What's Your Emergency?), and she definitely is capable of contributing a lot and being active as town, and she even commented in the 911 Mafia PT that she doesn't like playing scum.

But this isn't just about activity. Baezu hasn't been all that active this game, and Mary was very active in the beginning of the game when she was pushing us, and now she isn't that active. But the content that Baezu/Persivul and Mary

DO

have is scummy, and that's why either of them are good pushes right now. And given that Mary/MariaR was also in 911: What's Your Emergency? and saw scum!Baezu very recently, I don't think that town!Mary/MariaR would be giving Baezu the easy free pass that she has been giving her, because Baezu's content in this game is scummy just as her content in 911 was scummy.

We aren't giving scummy people passes for today just because they may be

deliberately

keeping their content low in an effort to stay under the radar. and skate by to day two. HK and Mary both have a ton of scum equity in this game, and right now I am not interested in lynching anyone outside of {HK, Mary}.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey whats your read on penguin?

Think I mentioned this before. I'm leaning scum, but I dunno. Nancy however thinks he's obvscum.

-Joff

I <3 you man but



If I was sold on him obvscum, I wouldn’t have advocated waiting to see if he obvtowned D2 or not, like he implied.

~Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

I want you to ignore your general read and look at the party votes and his last few posts.

From the party votes, I'd say it's likelier that Hell Knight is scum over PenguinPower.

Noting that scum wouldn't want to send two of themselves to a party of four, but exactly one - suggests that two scum won't both vote on a heal that contains both of them. I'm also making the weak assumption that scum would not want to send two town to the party either; so Fus willing to send me and Duppin *and* Duppin willing to send me and Fus *and* is slightly town indicative.

Thing is, I can imagine town Penguin doing what he did this game. There are scummier slots like Mary and HK; I'd lynch there first.

Also, I think I'm adding Skygazer to my lynchpool. Not giving reasons now.

-Jeff

Why did Sky vote our party then?

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

So:

Town:
Inbred
Fus

Leaning town:
Edgar
Sky (if everyone in the party is town then Sky is pretty much confirmed town - however if Sky is scum there is most likely a scum in the party)
RedPanda
HK

Neutral:
PP (people keep throwing meta reads at him but having never played with him I have no idea if they are correct. I haven't checked any of his previous game, but based on his play this game I am/was under the impression all he usually just likes to troll a little and mainly just post one liners. I should probably check some of his games if I get the time to actually verify if this is just his playstyle or if it is actually alignment indicative of him.)
Uncle Bob (I was okay with his first posts. His vote on Yumeko wasn't very strong but I think it was a fair enough starting vote. Disagree with Yumeko trying to paint it as scummy. He hasn't done anything after that, but I'm not going to pretend like that makes his slot more scummy. Waiting for his replacement)

Leaning scum:
Mary (The only thing she has done after me and Inbred talked about her is put out a vote on Yumeko.)
Raya (As I stated yesterday I wasn't a fan of her entrance)
Yumeko (I do like your interactions with RedPanda, but not really a fan of you calling everyone your wagon scummy. I understand some people might argue that could be a slight town tell but that is actually the reason I dislike it. It felt more like you tried to came up with a reason for finding everyone on your wagon suspicious rather than actually thinking they were scummy. You also didn't really comment on the party, it might not be fair of me to expect that from you given you are under a lot of pressure, but given I find you slightsly suspicious the fact that you didn't comment on the wagon while implying all scum voted on you makes me more worried about the party having a scum in it. This obviously only makes sense if you are actually scum though.

Scum:
HK (yeah I don't really care when people try to point out there is "no resistance" to the wagon because apparently there was enough to make Yumeko the leading wagon. I still think his play is scummy. My main concern is that it feels like it has mainly been my townreads who have been opposed to this wagon.

Agree, it’s kind of hypocritical, considering HK was perfectly fine lynching Yumeko before party even got voted on.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

I forgot to put Titus in neutral. I haven't played here in quite a while and Titus has changed her play and I am pretty careful with reading her. I don't think she has done anything scummy and I actually think her lack of interest earlier is a bit more likely to come from town but still aware that scum could easily fake it.

Yeah, probably right. Scum!Titus is far more likely to act like town leader than town!Titus.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Sky (if everyone in the party is town then Sky is pretty much confirmed town - however if Sky is scum there is most likely a scum in the party)

Good observation.

However as scum haven't conceded, we assume there's one scum in the party. This lends considerable scum equity to Skygazer, and if there's not much town equity in her posts she becomes a good candidate for a lynch. (That's why I added her to my lynch pool)

Also based on similar reasoning, Mary flipping scum would indicate Edgar town: Edgar's predecessor, a player who holds a lot of influence in the game proposed a heal of himself, Mary and Penguin and wouldn't do that if he were scum with Mary.

-Joff

I don’t understand why scum concedes if all town in party. Can someone explain this to me?

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

Sky (if everyone in the party is town then Sky is pretty much confirmed town - however if Sky is scum there is most likely a scum in the party)

Good observation.

However as scum haven't conceded, we assume there's one scum in the party. This lends considerable scum equity to Skygazer, and if there's not much town equity in her posts she becomes a good candidate for a lynch. (That's why I added her to my lynch pool)

Also based on similar reasoning, Mary flipping scum would indicate Edgar town: Edgar's predecessor, a player who holds a lot of influence in the game proposed a heal of himself, Mary and Penguin and wouldn't do that if he were scum with Mary.

-Joff

I don’t understand why scum concedes if all town in party. Can someone explain this to me?

~T

It's best to not discuss this in the thread right now, as it may inadvertently help scum with strategy.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey whats your read on penguin?

Think I mentioned this before. I'm leaning scum, but I dunno. Nancy however thinks he's obvscum.

-Joff

I want you to ignore your general read and look at the party votes and his last few posts.

If nance thinks he’s obvscum and we think he’s scum, let’s vote here

VOTE: PP

I think he was buddying us when he proposed us for the party

And I fell for it

-bae

Penguin, I’m just watching for now.

He implied he will obvtown on D2, so I’m looking forward to that to seeing that.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Caught up through page 20.
- duppin: entrance and subsequent play is fine, but he's too good as town and scum to read this early.
- Penguin: doing nothing, but then put out a couple reads. Looking townier but adopting a Not Mafia playstyle, which I would be glad to PL at any time.
-

Lannisters: not happy to learn that Auro's in the group. That took them down to null for me

. BUT, I like that he called out Bae for not posting - not so much in an accusatory way, but seemed like he really wants input. Up to lean town.
- Fusco: page 14 note: "Fusco looks bad this page. Maybe scum that made a strong opening and is now coasting?"
- Titus is looking better. At first the

I need VCs

shtick seemed off, but she's looking better as she goes.
- Red Panda seems obvtown

Wrt the bolded, why?

~Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

Oh yeah I assumed this was hyperbole. Unless we somehow run the same "hood" every day and then therefore we get to a worst case endgame step where it's 4 town inside the party, 3 mafia outside?

The Hood's persistent, not reset every day. You seriously miss all the discussion and clarification regarding that?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Persivul, are you around?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Baezu has not been answering any of my questions.
I'm struggling to understand her motivations for various posts of hers through the thread.
Did she attempt communicate her thought processes to you while you were off? Have you discussed reads now, or are you two posting completely independently as you catch up?

-Jeff

[Inbred Lannisters]

He was voting himself into the group that Skygazer was also a part of - you suggest that scum wouldn't want to do that, but also say you're adding Skygazer to the lynch pool. Is this just 2 sides of a coin where it's either Hell Knight or Skygazer to you?

I added Sky to my lynchpool for different reasons, as I said.
In my first sentence I meant that I don't believe

both

Penguin and Hell Knight would be scum, and HK would definitely be scum out of the two. This was because scum wouldn't want to add two of them to the pool.

My reasoning for Skygazer wasn't her inclusion the {HK, PP, Raya, Sky} party - rather that she independently gains some scum equity following the assumption that the party has one scum in it. It's a no-cost assumption, because in the universe where it's incorrect, we win anyway. Indeed, I doubt she'd be scum along with HK/PP/Raya, with earlier logic.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Joffrey whats your read on penguin?

Think I mentioned this before. I'm leaning scum, but I dunno. Nancy however thinks he's obvscum.

-Joff

I want you to ignore your general read and look at the party votes and his last few posts.

If nance thinks he’s obvscum and we think he’s scum, let’s vote here

VOTE: PP

I think he was buddying us when he proposed us for the party

And I fell for it

-bae

This feels completely fake. The party that Penguin was pushing consisted of himself and widely scumread players (HK, Skygazer, Raya36):

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

If I have to wear a bowtie, I'm rocking the cane, monocle, and tophat as well.



My first party...I'm so excited.

So he obviously wasn't "buddying" you by pushing that party, because the party consisted of scummy players. And you're not only claiming that he buddied you, but that you "fell for it" and only realized it now, after you thought Nancy declared Penguin "obvscum?" (which she didn't actually say that Penguin is obvscum)

Im really wary of all this focus on

1: the hood composition post-formation
2: Assuming theres a deepwolf post-formation
3: Pushing a lurker wagon like its a civic duty


its really shit

Same

I feel like is scum subterfuge and obfuscation- kirari doesn’t seem like the scum in all of this and neither do the Lannisters, Red panda is prob also town so it’s making yumeko look worse and worse

-bae

The tone and language of "scum subterfuge and obfuscation" feels exaggerated and fake. There's also really no explanation of how the "scum subterfuge and obfuscation" has anything to do with "making Yumeko look worse and worse".

I’m really not liking duppin’s reads

At all

-bae

Duppin is bleeding obvtown. This attempt at shading him is really bad.

I didn’t like the fact that raya and Mary were scummy in your list

They haven’t been very active, so why aren’t they null?

Mary has been a lot less active lately, but she had a lot of readable content earlier in the game, including her defense of you and her push on our slot. So why can’t Duppin have a genuine scumread on Mary based on the content that she does have in this game?

I also don’t like your PP null read

PP has made enough posts for people to have a solid opinion on him...I get your reasoning on keeping him in your null pile but it just seems non commital

-bae

This doesn't make sense if you really believe that Duppin should be nullreading Mary. Penguin has produced readable content, but so has Mary. Why is it unacceptable for him to have a nullread on Penguin, but you take issue with him scumreading Mary? Perhaps he finds Mary easier to read than Penguin. Your grasping at straws and shading an obvtown slot.

Caught up through page 20.
- duppin: entrance and subsequent play is fine, but he's too good as town and scum to read this early.
- Penguin: doing nothing, but then put out a couple reads. Looking townier but adopting a Not Mafia playstyle, which I would be glad to PL at any time.
-

Lannisters: not happy to learn that Auro's in the group. That took them down to null for me. BUT, I like that he called out Bae for not posting - not so much in an accusatory way, but seemed like he really wants input. Up to lean town

.
- Fusco: page 14 note: "Fusco looks bad this page. Maybe scum that made a strong opening and is now coasting?"
- Titus is looking better. At first the

I need VCs

shtick seemed off, but she's looking better as she goes.
- Red Panda seems obvtown

Yeah, I'm not buying your "read progression" on our slot at all. I don't buy that Auro's mere presence in our hydra initially dropped us down to a nullread for you. Yes, Auro has won several scum games by deepwolfing, but he also has a really solid town game (see: Starcraft II for example) and as Nomination Mafia proved, it is possible to distinguish town!Auro from scum!Auro if you really know what to look for and know how Auro plays on a deep level. Auro's skill at deepwolfing aside, he's obvtown in this game and I'm not buying this narrative that you had concerns about him being a deepwolf.

You also said here that Penguin is "looking townier", but you still have your vote on him, and Baezu even wanted to lynch Penguin because she falsely believed that Nancy said he is "obvscum". And you said here that you would like to lynch either Yumeko or Mary:

Top lynch choices rn are: Yumeko, Mary

-Pers (last post was me too)

So why are you still voting for Penguin? And who do you think is scummier between Yumeko and Mary?

Lastly, you said that Fusco's posts on page 14 were bad. These were all of Fusco's posts on page 14:

it's a very titus idea

my issue with it is one of preference.

I haven't really sorted this game. Ill look today or tomorrow.

I don't think that forcing scum into the party intentionally is good.

I dont think putting 'popular' players into the party is good.

I dont think putting 5 players that you cant 100 read or lynch without social dramahs is good

The hood should be used to restrict kills, not sus out theories.

Which of those posts did you find scummy, and why? And why did you say that Fusco had a strong opening but now appears to be coasting? I don't think that Fusco's play has changed significantly from the beginning of the game up to now.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

HK should definitely be lynched today. I'm completely convinced that their slot is a scum slot.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

[Inbred Lannisters]

Lannisters, tell me where you want my vote. I'm fading again. I think the Mary experiment will be useful in VCA though.

HK should definitely be lynched today. I'm completely convinced that their slot is a scum slot.

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

Kirari, I know you're very disappointed with my play (if I'm guessing your main right) but you're misinterpreting me: I didn't say sorting the other three is my problem. My point was that an NK in the party simply wouldn't happen until late game.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Wait a minute. I've been searching for Yumeko's party vote and I can't find it: was it a mod mistake? Yumeko, did you not notice it?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

iso 2?

Can't find it in her ISO nor between the mod posts which count that heal. Am I just being crazy?

Interesting. Penguin you were the first one to lay that heal vote; what rationale for including those team members?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

HEAL: Mary Saotome, Yumeko Jabami, Kirari Momobami, PenguinPower, SkyGazer

this is not the heal you're talking about?

Look at Yumeko's heal in the final count.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

You're right, Yumeko's heal included Mary, she didn't join on the 4-man house pet group.

I guess that is a mod error then, although I don't think it changes the dice roll

What I'm wondering is why Yumeko didn't seem to care that her vote false contributed to that heal party.

*Shrug*

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

You could've just hinted your main wayyy before and I'd prolly have just convinced my other heads to sheep you

-J

[Inbred Lannisters]

Meh.
In any case I'd be doubly paranoid if you're alive tomorrow now.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I think you're missing the point of playing on a stealth alt.

Omigod if Joffrey’s right, then how could you ever call me unfun?

[Inbred Lannisters]

She didn't call you unfun Nancy, that was a critique about me that by following the coalition strategy I made it "not fun" as opposed to the House Pets one.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Spoiler:

[Inbred Lannisters]

She didn't call you unfun Nancy, that was a critique about me that by following the coalition strategy I made it "not fun" as opposed to the House Pets one.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

This game doesn't appear to have any mathematical breaking strategy, so there's that. The closest thing will be VCA and that's just a semi-informed hypothesis of the game.

No, the coalition strat has a >50% chance of town win at random.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Every time someone mentions the housepets strategy, I am sad that Creature isn’t in this game. :/

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

You know you really didn't need to out me to Nancy when I'm about to die like 60% of the time tonight.

I’m not really sure what one thing has to do with the other? I actually thought you were someone else because you’ve never actually directly addressed me as “scum” before but then I remembered that person hates secret alts.

[Inbred Lannisters]

Anyway, I hope you guys are still on good terms. I hate to see people I like upset with each other.

[Inbred Lannisters]

You know you really didn't need to out me to Nancy when I'm about to die like 60% of the time tonight.

I told her my hunch wayyyy before (during the strat discussion).

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

VOTE: Hell Knight

Whatever

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Were you scum?

-J

[Inbred Lannisters]

UNVOTE:

-Joffrey

[Inbred Lannisters]

The previous Lynch votes

Hell Knight (7):

Yumeko Jabami, duppin, Edgar Allan Foe, Inbred Lannisters, PenguinPower, Kirari Momobami, Titus

Yumeko Jabami (3):

Uncle Bob, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

Mary Saotome (2):

Skygazer, Fuscosco

PenguinPower (1):

Hell Knight

not voting (1):

Raya36,

I'll wait for Uncle Bob's replacement to read the game and give us their reads.

Skygazer: Why Mary? Catch up and give us updated reads pls, your ISO gives me nothing.

Actually whoops @mod, recheck RedPanda's vote.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

{Uncle Bob, Raya, Mary, Fuscosco, Skygazer, Hell Knight} the only people off the HK wagon.

Uncle Bob: Flaked, pending replacement.
Raya36: Getting replaced.
Mary: Requested replacement.
Skygazer: Doesn't seem to be in the game

Fuscosco: Defended HK, grudgingly okay with their lynch

@mod is the lynch going through? I think you made a mistake but since no one seemed to notice I hope you count my unvote.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Spoiler:

How are you people happy with Hell Knight's posts? This is a

bad

post reflective of zero thought towards what's going on in the game. I'll go so far as to say that scum realizes that having multiple votes for a heal makes it much likelier to get picked (squared probabilities); healing "nobody" when almost all the players agree it's a crap strategy without any elaboration at all is

very

scummy. Also add the lack of engagement (hasn't responded to my questions), lack of detailing reads, the inconsistency wrt the read on my slot ("scumlean for early shitposts, you've been much townier since then, but still scumlean"), and (idk for angleshooty-ness) activity elsewhere.

VOTE: Hell Knight

I'm not at all but hellknight wagon is easy and he will def be lynched in the future. My vote will move to hellknight only if yumeko posts something to change my mind or this wagon goes nowhere.

Wasn't this the latest post where RedPanda voted? I hope I missed something.

PS. IBL = InBred Lannisters

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Cool. Haven't got that far yet. We're town. Lynch should have been Yumeko.

Pers can you get up to date and see if you still think the same?
What are your opinions on the Yumeko Wagon when it was at its peak?
What convinces you that Yumeko is the best lynch, compared to say, Mary/Sky?

Pedit: Oh cool. Great!

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Baezu would you be willing to answer my questions?

-KING Joffrey THE GREAT

[Inbred Lannisters]

Also, in regards to the fake hammer, why were we not asked to claim?

If you wanna claim, now's a good time, go ahead.
Snap response please, so we know it's not fake.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Okayyy let's start with some starter questions.

Leaning RC town, leaning volxen/auro scum

Fwiw, you’ve been much more town since

Now,

why

were we still a leanscum for you at that time if we were "much more town since"? Walk me through what you were thinking exactly then?

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

If nance thinks he’s obvscum and we think he’s scum, let’s vote here

VOTE: PP

I think he was buddying us when he proposed us for the party

Why did you not feel he was buddying you when you sheeped his vote? Why did you sheep this party vote, instead of the rest?

I also don’t like your PP null read

PP has made enough posts for people to have a solid opinion on him...I get your reasoning on keeping him in your null pile but it just seems non commital

What were these posts, and how did your "solid opinion" come about?

Your reads seemed really... fake to me, so some explanation of your motivations/thoughts would help.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I was writing my thoughts down to persi in our Pt I started realizing that it probably was..

She's not posting in our PT.

So... that was a one-time "thoughts" post and she never posted in the PT after that? What was the situation exactly like, Persivul?

-KING JOFFREY

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm really sorry if you're town and you feel bullied.

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

I'm really confused as well. Their play has been.. bizarre.
I'm trying to figure this out but for anyone who has experience playing with town!Baezu, looks like she does get mislynched a bunch: has her pre-lynch play ever consisted of heavy contradictory flails and AtE? Asking about why we didn't ask for a claim makes it seem like she's highly unaware of the game, and I'm not sure this could come from scum (who *must* co-ordinate to an extent in their PT, right?) Would Persivul really see 1144 (saying they were lynched) and then say "Cool, we were town" a few posts after a mod post count showing they weren't? It also looks like they weren't communicating with each other even in their final posts - which is weird for either alignment but I feel is actually towny?

I don’t mind- if you hate this game that much we can self vote and try a different game

Would scum!Baezu actually sabotage her scumteam by proposing to self-vote first? (Assuming she wasn't faking this)

Whoops
-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

His VLA was genuine, Kirari. What motivation would he have to not post till a couple days ago if he were scum?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

But if he was just out of town why wouldn't he just say he was out of town?

I mean he just thought the *a VLA" was enough, in any case I doubt this says anything about their alignment...

In any case I think I'll wait for all the replacements to arrive and talk: Since around 4 slots are pending reps I think we can get another extension?

-Joff

[Inbred Lannisters]

Also, in regards to the fake hammer, why were we not asked to claim?

Because it's mountainous FFS.

I'd vote you myself if you weren't my partner.

^ Pers

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

Yes I thought you were being scummy- persi was convincing me you were

Also, in regards to the fake hammer, why were we not asked to claim?

Because it's mountainous FFS.

I'd vote you myself if you weren't my partner.

I don’t mind- if you hate this game that much we can self vote and try a different game

Sorry persivul

-bae

All I wanted to do was hydra with you- I think you’re an awesome player And an awesome hydra partner and I really like the way you think

Is this legit or scum hydra theater???





~Seriously confused Tyrion

[Inbred Lannisters]

I was writing my thoughts down to persi in our Pt I started realizing that it probably was..

She's not posting in our PT.

So... that was a one-time "thoughts" post and she never posted in the PT after that? What was the situation exactly like, Persivul?

-KING JOFFREY

This is hydra dissonance taken to an extreme. I’m not buying it, it reads fake to me. I don’t believe one’s partner shades the other PUBLICALLY like this.

If it isn’t bs and HK is actually town, then Persival owes Bae a humongous apology for publically humiliating her like this.

~T

[Inbred Lannisters]

I’m not feeling bullied, joff, I’m used to this kind of attention as town tbh

But you are, by your own partner.

~T