open 759: house party (compleded)

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Hello friends, new and old.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Oh also:

UNVOTE:
HEAL: Nobody

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Okay, mechanics first.

Endorsing the "kitty kitty" method. Going raw 50/50 or anything else other than strategic decision making is essentially pissing away the mechanic which is intended to make the setup have closer to 50-50 win rate.

The win rate for straight 11 to 3 Mountainous is uh... Bad. Like.. Really bad.

Like according to the wiki, 10v2 is 39.49% town win rate. Pretty sure 11v3 makes it worse, not better.

In fact, I'm perfectly willing to lynch today in exclusively the group pushing to make this Mountainous.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Yeah, Titus you're a setup breaker. Both calling to go random AND shutting down discussions on the alternates?

Scum, or Dunce Cap?

I think scum.

VOTE: Titus

[Edgar Allan Foe]

daytalk

Oh yeah fuck that noise, lower the expected town win ratio a few more percent too.

Is one in four REALLY acceptable?

REALLY?

I don't think it is.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Much engage, such wow, Titus.

Where's the stone cold lawyer who tells the cop off for pulling her over for a light out? You'd normally salivate being directly challenged on effectively being accused of dragging your heels.

Did she die with the color green?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Much engage, such wow, Titus.

Where's the stone cold lawyer who tells the cop off for pulling her over for a light out? You'd normally salivate being directly challenged on effectively being accused of dragging your heels.

Did she die with the color green?

Who are you? *creeped out*

I don't think I mentioned I was a lawyer in this thread. I also never told a cop off in such a manner?

I kinda am dragging a bit. I need to see wagons to get a picture.

I'm an alt of a player you used to play with quite a bit, back in the 2015 era? Ish. Not a stalker, just been to a few meets with you. I'm just preferring to keep my identity private and get a fresh start. If anyone here DOES know who I am, I ask that you keep it to yourself.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Were you in the car when I got pulled over at Titus meet?

Possibly. But let's not focus on who I am, let's focus on what we're doing here.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I dislike putting Penguin Power into any "these people suck and need to be in time out with the dunce hat" groupings.

It's a fairly firm townread for me, dawg. Or.. uh, penguin.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

*sigh*

Not going to argue it again like I did with Reck, but you're wrong. Relying solely on meta is bad, but it's a good tool when used properly. Welcome back after 4 years...we'll see what happens to your opinion.

Meta takes investment. It's a constant arms race, where players have to pick up on patterns somebody is vulnerable to before they themselves notice that. It's certainly not the end all and you can't make your entire play style around it as much as you used to be able to.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Moving right along.

If we're doing a firm grouping of 3-4 players, so be it. Let's settle on either "bad housepets wearing the cone of shame" or "good doggos who get the belly rubs" and move on to the actual membership discussion thereof.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I think the optimal group size is four, and we should aim to do 4 town over 4 scum. Peanut gallery commentary welcome.

4 townreads if 100% right:

Strong Town Core protected from nightkill and go into phase 2.

4 townreads if X% right:

Scum have to leave the in group alone OR give us a "At least one in three of your townreads are confoscum" scenario.

4 townreads if 100% wrong:

I wish to unsinstall my life thanks. This ironically enough means that scum is forced to shoot "inside the group" if 4, making it the case that a kill inside the group means we lynch inside that group day two.

VS...

4 scumreads if 100% right:

Scum is forced to shoot inside the group, and we lynch within the group.

4 scumreads if X% right:

Scum shoot in the out group most likely. We gain little information?

4 scumreads if 0% right:

Weak scummy looking town is protected, scum shoots within the "out" group and we really didn't gain any info.

If we do 4 townreads; we then know to lynch within the group of 3 if one of the four is shot.

We then completely do different groupings day two so we can start "minesweepering" sort of like people mentioned.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I like Titus for town too.

Sell me this pen.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Man it's freeing to have no expectations of play. I'm fine being out of the party.

More tonight, maybe tomorrow, my flight's been delayed for uh... six? Hours now. The Midwest USA is a big pile of sad at present when it comes to weather.

I'm fine with sending two strong townreads, it's not my ideal but it sure as hell beats the RANDOM LEL OH LEL EXSH DEE plan.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

You're not going to get 6 people to coalition you and dup in the next 20 hours and continuing to try to send townreads into the house party is playing against wincon because it's really looking like we won't get a consensus at all. If the send is randomized it should be exclusively composed of scumreads or lynchbait poes.

Would you support healing {us, Duppin}?

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

If you had to swap Duppin out, who would you put in. Now, same question but yourself.. Does that have the same answer?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Edgar and Duppin, you guys should sheep us and HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, Duppin

- Cersei Lannister (Volxen)

It would appear you skipped my post stating I'd likely do so but had some questions about the next tier of your reads.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I was gonna follow up and ask how that insures exactly

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Mod owes us a vote count for a while back now but eh

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Reading the setuomis SO 2010.

(I had that assumption too until I reread the setup the other day)

[Edgar Allan Foe]

HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, duppin, Fuscosco, Edgar Allen Foe




~Tyrion

HEAL: Inbred, Duppin

Duppin sheep this. Why would you want to add Fus over yourself? You're confirmed town to yourself

-Jeff

Pick a god and pray?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I prefer the 4-block.

HEAL: Inbred Lannisters, duppin, Fuscosco, Edgar Allen Foe

I have slightly nudges about this, but it's better than the other options on the table.

People are welcome to sheep this one or the two-block. Just please don't do nothing, lest RNJESUS fuck us over for the lulz?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

We have three and a half hours. Since we won't hit a supermajority I'm gonna pick my favorite and if I gotta swap last second? I'll be around.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Huh the deadline says expired for me. Weird.

It said some time around 1230 central, right?

It's currently 8:53 AM Standard Central Time.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

UNVOTE:

My heart ain't in this Titus shit anymore.

There's a thing she STILL hasn't picked up, it would seem. Old habits die hard.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

There's a thing she STILL hasn't picked up, it would seem. Old habits die hard.

Which is?

-Jeff

Yes let me burn a perfectly good individual tell that has worked for half a decade for the lulz.
Oh, wait, no, that would be stupid because once she's aware of it it stops working.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Yeah that came off snarkier than intended, my bad.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Well, this is deader than my libido in November of 2016.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Wouldn't vote her today (Sidenote: All vidyagame/anime alts are sakura hana until proven otherwise); liked the earlier posting, not as much the later posting.

I really ought to get a full reads list up at some point but ~effort~

[Edgar Allan Foe]

My town tiers from most to least are something like this right now? Ish? My feelings fluctuate like Trump's net worth.

{Inbred Lannisters, duppin}
~GAP~
{Fus, Penguin, RedPanda}
~GAP~
{Titus, Kirari}
~LINE OF LYNCHABILITY TODAY~

Strongly doubt my top line is wrong. Possibility of me being tricked well by the middle line. Not super solid on the third line.

I feel there's good odds of hitting scum among the lurkmass that's s(h)itting around. I would like to lynch from that pool unless I see a compelling argument otherwise.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

About one hour left.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

why

Well; you've got about 46 minutes to come up with something better; and get multiple players on board with you. Or you can intentionally piss away the only thing separating us from a 33% EV.


Even if you don't like that grouping, sheeping one of the ones that is out there and not "no one" or "random" is ideal at this point.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

20 minutes. Ya'll around to swap if we have to?

I think we're gonna end up with a few more replacements for inactivity at this rate, too.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I'm not sheeping anything where I don't get invited to the party. I already bought my top hat and cane.

You put on your wizard robe and hat...

[Edgar Allan Foe]

HEAL: PenguinPower, Skygazer, Raya36, Hell Knight

If I have to wear a bowtie, I'm rocking the cane, monocle, and tophat as well.



My first party...I'm so excited.

Penguin?

Unless you literally think this is the best use of the party, in which case, 'splain yoself

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Literally three minutes.

Penguin?

Titus?

Are you both content to RNJESUS?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Well, that's deadline.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Sigh

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Wow a shame i took the pagetop from mod. Oh well.

Now we discuss reads.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

a lynch cannot occur until the group phase finishes.

the lynch will proceed as normal

, with the deadline 14 days after the beginning of the group phase.

Instructions unclear, vote ended up in tree.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

That was my point.

It's unclear.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Moving right along.

Lannisters, who IS in your lynchpool if it's wide open today?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Yumeko Jabami (8): Skygazer, Uncle Bob, PenguinPower, Titus, Kirari Momobami, Hell Knight, RedPanda, Mary Saotome

^The Yumeko wagon.

I'd lynch Hell Knight, Uncle Bob, Mary Saotome. Maybe Raya36.
I'd also lynch PP, I'm wondering why he's in your second tier of reads - elaborate?

-Jeff

Tonal read; it's an old meta thing but it checks out from a cursory skim of recent completed.

There's a secondary reason but that one is staying right here in my chest cavity.

I REALLY don't see why people are scumreading him to the extent they are, perhaps we could start by triangulating on what you dislike there?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Amusingly, we disagree on many of the reasons and methods of reading penguin; then.

Perhaps I should directly strike up a convo with Nancy's head when she's around?

Moving right along, raya?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

We really need a mod prod right about now.

And I think Bob hit replacement... yay more swaps.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Raya has too little content to actually form any proper read from, 8 posts in the span of 2 hours. Treating it as a lurker slot.

-Jeff Winger

Same applies to who else in your lynchpool? Just Raya and Bob?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Okay. I have a general feel for where your reads are then.

Where do you have panda?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

My town tiers from most to least are something like this right now? Ish? My feelings fluctuate like Trump's net worth.

{Inbred Lannisters, duppin}
~GAP~
{Fus, Penguin,

RedPanda

}
~GAP~
{Titus, Kirari}
~LINE OF LYNCHABILITY TODAY~

Strongly doubt my top line is wrong. Possibility of me being tricked well by the middle line. Not super solid on the third line.

I feel there's good odds of hitting scum among the lurkmass that's s(h)itting around. I would like to lynch from that pool unless I see a compelling argument otherwise.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Oh yeah I have reasons it's just criminal to pass up a good snark opportunity.

Plox hold.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Okay work picking up so this is the cliffnotes but:

A: The effort made to pick up game pacing. This is very protown because at that point apathy was likely to remain allowable.
B: The reaction (notable lack thereof) to Penguin delcaring him obvtown and instead working forward
C: Some of the shit you mentioned, I guess.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Well that was interesting.

My set of emotions went from

"Wow that was lynch this sucks"
to
"Maybe it's not the worst target I guess?"
to
"Oh, okay, somebody rewound time"
and now to
"jeez that REALLY could have been explained to us better to clear up all the uncertainty"

VOTE: Hell Knight
This is where i found myself wishing the final wagon had been; Baaaaaaahbaaaaaah

P.S. bastard game, fus is a doublevoter apparently.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

get rekt, noob, my RNJESUS prayers > yours

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I actually think this is great, we have the deepwolf isolated to 4 slots, so we can start lynching in them while feeding more into the house pets to create an actual townblock.

I'm not sure if this is scum, really bad town, or if my illness made me delusional.

Yes

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I think the moonlogic virus is spreading.

Can we not do snap-drama-snapback tests if we're going to let them be literally like a five minute duration? The reaction form the lurkmass would have been important first...

[Edgar Allan Foe]

idk, I think one medium strength townread out of a slot that previously was nullscum is better results than I see people get out of longer reaction tests. I also think there's really only so much patience people have for reaction tests and if you push them too long they're going to lose objectivity for a prolonged period of time.

Anyway, what's your read of Titus, Edgar?

It's a super secret hidden read not at all contained in my reads list I posted earlier. Nothing about that little reaction test changes the read, she's where I left her.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Yeah... this is coming off rather like somebody scrambling to unload a wagon onto anything else, quickly.

Means the wagon at present is mostly or more likely, ALL town.

Hell Knight (4): Yumeko Jabami, duppin, Edgar Allan Foe, Inbred Lannisters

Makes me feel better about Yumeko, even!

[Edgar Allan Foe]

The "quick" is not "close to deadline" but "close to all major generally townread players uniting around a common cause, FUCK" sort of scramble.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Ah, to be young again.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Much engage, such wow, Titus.

Where's the stone cold lawyer who tells the cop off for pulling her over for a light out? You'd normally salivate being directly challenged on effectively being accused of dragging your heels.

Did she die with the color green?

Who are you? *creeped out*

I don't think I mentioned I was a lawyer in this thread. I also never told a cop off in such a manner?

I kinda am dragging a bit. I need to see wagons to get a picture.

I'm an alt of a player you used to play with quite a bit, back in the 2015 era? Ish. Not a stalker, just been to a few meets with you. I'm just preferring to keep my identity private and get a fresh start. If anyone here DOES know who I am, I ask that you keep it to yourself.

Were you in the car when I got pulled over at Titus meet?

Were you in the car when I got pulled over at Titus meet?

Possibly. But let's not focus on who I am, let's focus on what we're doing here.

This is bullshit. One of these days I'm approaching the powers that be about this kind of crap. Playing a secret alt but giving a single player hints about who you are is bringing an outside influence into the game IMO.

-Pers

If you feel strongly that knowing my main is a matter of fairness, i'll main-claim right here and now. It won't change anything about my play; nor my alignment. It was done entirely to assure titus that I wasn't a stalker.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I mean hell i've taken no steps to run about hiding it anyways; it'll be a one-time use burner alt i guess.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

FWIW I am positive it's possible to know my main only from my ISO in this thread and reading old threads.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Sky (if everyone in the party is town then Sky is pretty much confirmed town - however if Sky is scum there is most likely a scum in the party)

Good observation.

However as scum haven't conceded, we assume there's one scum in the party. This lends considerable scum equity to Skygazer, and if there's not much town equity in her posts she becomes a good candidate for a lynch. (That's why I added her to my lynch pool)

Also based on similar reasoning, Mary flipping scum would indicate Edgar town: Edgar's predecessor, a player who holds a lot of influence in the game proposed a heal of himself, Mary and Penguin and wouldn't do that if he were scum with Mary.

-Joff

I don’t understand why scum concedes if all town in party. Can someone explain this to me?

~T

Oh yeah I assumed this was hyperbole. Unless we somehow run the same "hood" every day and then therefore we get to a worst case endgame step where it's 4 town inside the party, 3 mafia outside? Even then, you can make a paranoia play. It would be incredibly dumb.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

My questions to you still stands, Pers.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I was gonna go for "probably not being lynched today but also meh" but it seems Penguin stole that position, so instead i'll just give a few arrows to his post like so~


^^^

[Edgar Allan Foe]

P.S. I like me too!


Self esteem truly is for everyone.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Im more pissed he didnt comment on anything recent and is using old info to read people.

Oh I figured we were getting a real time view of catchup as he went? I betcha he keeps going.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I mean...it looks like he's catching up?

Percy did the same thing.

See this was supposed to be your turn to give ME the updog.

And yet here I am crying alone.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

kid

Have one of those due in September, future-me commiserates.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Well I was really hoping somebody not already sorted would engage me on that but oh well

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Yeah...

I have some serious doubts about that hydra's entire.. everything but they're no longer around to answer questions, either.

They've essentially injected pure WIFOM straight into the day's veins.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

any good players in this table please

Nah I'm clearly shite

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I think we have the game prob solved.
Edgar, would you be okay outing your main? Something small I'd like to verify, but if you want to remain hidden it's okay.

We're absolutely lynching Sky today.

-Joff

This is a burner alt and I intend to out myself at the end of the game; but I'm not exactly sure why you think you need to know now. If you have a legit reason, probably, it's fine but I've been enjoying the lack thereof of having to do things people expect of my style.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Also anyone going "lmao all town grouping is autowin" or hell even "all five town grouping is autowin" is really fucking shortsighted.

In that scenario, scum sacks a single player to hit within the hood and then paranoia eats it from within. Especially with statements such as "always lynch within the NK pool" already being bandied about.

Scum are likely taking the long view. We need to as well. No easy wins here.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

This is a burner alt and I intend to out myself at the end of the game; but I'm not exactly sure why you think you need to know now. If you have a legit reason, probably, it's fine but I've been enjoying the lack thereof of having to do things people expect of my style.

Well, I think I have a

legit

reason personally, but not something I'd share with anyone outside my hydra.
But screw that, if you're having fun this way

-Joff

I don't think we've ever played together anyways.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Fusco is probably scum but I doubt I can garner support on that nor have the desire to really try and push it.

I'm not seeing it, but i'd be remiss to not listen. Pretend this is a super dazzling encouragement post.

this is now reddit's Change my View

[Edgar Allan Foe]

My condolences for your flight.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Caymans sounds nice!

Need to find a way to get there now!

You can try to use your newfound time to go back and elaborate on the reads detail you owed me.

God fucking damn it I've been so good about it.

Mine.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Ooooooo. Well that changes things. Hi!

Not sure what exactly it changes but enlighten me.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Fusco is probably scum but I doubt I can garner support on that nor have the desire to really try and push it.

I'm not seeing it, but i'd be remiss to not listen. Pretend this is a super dazzling encouragement post.

this is now reddit's Change my View

Did I miss you breaking this down? It's a day two post!

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Ah. I was looking for something more substantial but you're forgiven given vacation.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Ah. I was looking for something more substantial but you're forgiven given vacation.

I mean - it's not just the vacation. I get a lot of my reads based on how slots treat me. RedPanda doesn't know me so I don't really see a problem with how he's treating me. Fusco has seen how I play, so I don't really get his read on me.

That said, I was sus of Kirari for similar reasons so it's not 100% accurate. But, it helps me.

Don't give me a pass because of vacation-mode.

And what do you make of MY treatment of you?

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Caymans sounds nice!

Need to find a way to get there now!

You can try to use your newfound time to go back and elaborate on the reads detail you owed me.

God fucking damn it I've been so good about it.

Mine.

oh wow nice to meet you!! i've enjoyed stalking your games and stuff, you seem cool

No idea what you've read or think of them but yay?

I am intentionally not playing my usual style tho.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I am fully aware I've not been super active.

Part of this was trying out a new style, the other half is that I have family visiting from out of state.

More activity tomorrow.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

I mean shit man, minus the fact that I know it's wrong by nature of my role PM that's a pretty convincing case? Fuck, I'd vote me if I wasn't me, based on that case. I accept my lynch, unfortunate as it is. Seems my attempt sot change my playstyle to be less hyperactive just resulted in my stuff turning to shit. Apologies. At the very least let's replace me with Golden within the party, because there's ~0.0001% odds it flips scum.

Let me use the maximum amount of time available to put down plans for what happens when their solve ISN'T accurate and we have to re-calibrate.

And then I'll root? Rot? From the dead PT.

[Edgar Allan Foe]

Highly HIGHLY doubt the other head was at all involved.

I could have sworn there was a rule against adding a head midgame just to prevent this sort of thing from hurting legit players.

Maybe it never passed or got repealed?