open 759: house party (compleded)

[notes]

HEAL: nobody

i skimmed through the thread briefly overnight.

i don't think GRAS is ever scum here. if they wanted to bus, they would have bussed the scum outside the party. there are rare exceptions to this like 2 scums in the party yesterday prior to them being added, but i find that unlikely.

also have IL, Fuscoco and RedPanda as strong townreads. less confident on Duppin and Vengaboys.

not sure where these townreads on Penguin and Yumeko are coming from, if someone could walk me through those. i don't need a 5000 words essay, just a few pointers because i'm not seeing it.

i'm okay with a Titus lynch. don't particularly like her reasons for why GRAS is scum here considering what i said above. gun to my head, i'd say the partner is in Penguin or Yumeko. i don't feel like there's been any strong reasoning as to why either of those slots are town. Yumeko's lack of voting yesterday doesn't ping well with me either.

VOTE: titus

[notes]

It makes no sense for there to have ever been more than one scum in the party, so unless this is a seriously incompetent scumteam, duppin is pretty much mechanically convitown.

i'm not too fancy when it comes to mechanics so i'm going to take your word on that one.

i also realized it's impossible that there could've been 2 scum in the party yesterday with GRAS bussing since that would mean all 3 scum would've been in the party.

i went ahead and iso'd through Yumeko again and i slightly prefer placing my vote there for today. if there's indeed 4 town in the party, then it doesn't matter much where my vote is, but i think that slot is more likely to be scum than Titus. haven't seen anyone's reasoning regarding why this slot is town and i feel like she's just flying right under the radar? i see there are reasons to believe Titus is scum but i'm not really convinced by any of it. Yumeko (and Penguin to some extent) have much more scum equity in my opinion considering how none of us are on a consensus regarding their alignment. i'd rather lynch in the "wild card" than lynch Titus in this situation considering that.

VOTE: yumeko

[notes]

since i know someone will say something, i realize that me saying "i'm okay with a Titus lynch" and "i'm not really convinced by any of it" may sound like a contradiction.

however, i was okay with it based on a brief skim through the thread. i don't think there's any reason to lynch her over someone like Yumeko or Penguin today now that i've gone and read through the game more. i'm just not convinced that the reasoning given behind a Titus lynch is better than just lynching Yumeko.

[notes]

I think notes' focus on very lynchable slots is more likely to come from scum than town.

how so?

assume that my scumreads are Titus, Yumeko, Penguin.

Titus is already being voted and i already voiced that i'd rather not vote there. she's the least lynchable out of the three, i'd say. if she's scum, she will be lynched later in the game regardless of if i vote there or not. GRAS will likely push on Titus until this game is over. she will get lynched with or without my vote and i'm not overly worried about that right now.

Yumeko is lynchable, but there are good reasons for it. no one has outed reasons why this slot isn't being voted today and i think there are much more information to be had by lynching this slot today over someone like Titus. while one head of GRAS is townreading this slot, i haven't seen any reasoning to back this up. this is why i believe she's flying under the radar and it's a slot no one's paying attention to. that said, i don't think GRAS will let this slot be lynchable considering RAS's confidence on this slot being town.

Penguin has done nearly nothing this game but i wouldn't consider him lynchable for the same reasons as the above. one head of GRAS is townreading this slot, but this time there's actually reasoning behind it which i can get behind since i trust their reads given that they give an explanation. they didn't do this for Yumeko, so that's why it's different for me. i don't see any reason why anyone should be town reading this slot.

if anything, i'm pushing on a slot that's least lynchable than Titus considering the amount of pressure and votes being placed on her.

[notes]

if anything, i'm pushing on a slot that's

less*

lynchable than Titus considering the amount of pressure and votes being placed on her.

corrected and bolded what i meant above.

i want to add that Titus by herself is a harder lynch than Yumeko, yes. but considering the circumstances, that's far from true. i might be going against the grain here but i don't believe lynching Titus today does more than lynching Yumeko regardless of flip.

i also don't want to go too hard on the OMGUS, but i dislike that approach from Vengaboys. i think anyone would agree with me that with these circumstances Titus is more lynchable than Yumeko. my read didn't flip on Vengaboys, but that remark didn't sit well with me.

[notes]

assume we lynch Titus today and it flips green. then what? GRAS scumreads my slot and i know i'm town. we'd be down four towns after those mislynches/night kills and in awful situation. there will also be a ton of paranoia about there being a scum in the party after this.

now, assume we lynch Yumeko today and it flips green. then i think it's very safe to say that Titus is scum and we're still not going to be in a great spot after GRAS mislynches me after the Titus flip but i would argue it's better than the above.

obviously, if either of them flip red then it's cool but there's no way of knowing this is ever the case so i'm going with the worst case scenarios here. i just don't see how flipping Titus is better than flipping Yumeko today.

[notes]

is it safe to assume that neither of you are going to switch off or consider any of the things i've said? i just want to know if i'm wasting my time.

[notes]

if Titus flips green, will you re-consider my alignment or not? because that's what i'm most worried about right now.

[notes]

gg GRas, i don't think there's much we could've done after you 2 answered me so bluntly. i'm not sure what Titus is trying to get at here but i thought you two played great.

gg to everyone else who i didn't get to play with too!