Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[AaronFrost]

If he proves that he is playing poorly then town will assume that his previous actions were caused by his skill level rather then scum alignment.

So do you think my actions are indicative of inexperienced town or inexperienced scum?

Regular scum who wants to look like inexperienced town.

You think this is a viable scum strategy for me? Pretend to be dumb and hope that the other players will write it off as 'oh he's just inexperienced?' Because if that's been my strategy then it's not working out too well for me. I think it'd look super obvious if I was trying to do this.

[AaronFrost]

Flubbernugget wants us to think that he acted non-towny in order to secure his PR, this could be the case. His D2 was fine.
Sirfetch is top town. S_S is useless, he deserve to be scumreaded.
Aaron is trying hard to prove that he is unskilled in this game, it looks like agenda crafted by scumteam to clean him.
Skitter is fine but hard to read bc of paranoia around her.
Adorable has very very shallow reads but unharmful.
Wooper planned this whole course of action for his personal advantage. All he wanted was to shine during massclaim, which he planned for this day but some things got his way. Xayah could clarify herself, if she would get time for it.
Suji is kind of null read for me.
Luca is towny but i would take here the same approach as people do towards skitter.

I kind of agree that this reads list is bad. Most of your reads are null or not thought out and the ones you do have as a scumread you're just shading for the sake of shading. Especially dislike the 'SS is useless' comment.

[AaronFrost]

Aaron just scumreads every counterwagon and you are going for unpopular choices. That is a huge difference.

Uh I started the Xayah wagon D1 and played a pretty big part in the nom wagon D2. Like yeah I've been wrong on all my reads this game, but being wrong about a read doesn't make someone scum.

[AaronFrost]

@Mod:

V/LA until November 22nd.

[AaronFrost]

If you guys still have any questions for me I'll be around to answer when I can. Life's been sort of hectic for me right now.

[AaronFrost]

I disagree with Flubb's choice but the reasoning behind it feels legit. Like it doesn't feel fabricated to me.

I'm not voting until everyone claims.

[AaronFrost]

If for whatever reason I am alive for the night aaron should investigate me

You'll either get a result on me or a flip on a controversial slot

I'd rather lynch you then. I'm not about to take that chance.

[AaronFrost]

So for some reason I thought Thursday was the 22nd and I only needed V/LA until Thursday.

Catching up now.

[AaronFrost]

i'm gunsmith
(my second pick was n2 vig)

n1 - aaron; has no gun
n2 - ss; no result

Guess this explains skitt's sudden read change on me. Kind of confused as to why she changed stances on me midday though.

[AaronFrost]

gunsmith innos in this game aren't really hard innos; at that point i was still kinda scum-reading him on play but wasn't particularly interested in pushing him given the result, so he ended up ~nullscum

given the cop claim he's p much clear now tho

This actually makes sense if skitt thought there was a chance of me being a scum doc.

What was with the 'Aaron might be a N2 vig' then?

[AaronFrost]

Unless someone wants to argue Xayah was scum kill ofc. but I think we all decided that was just duck's vig and not a double shot.

If Xayah was somehow actually the scum kill I'm gonna laugh in post.

[AaronFrost]

Skitter did mention in the other game she was scum and she had to bus her scum partner for acting scummy.

With Billy being a vanilla goon, I could definitely see scum bussing here if they felt Billy was inevitable. I'll reread Day 1 at some point to see how skitt reacted to the Billy wagon.

[AaronFrost]

Actually I have another theory. It is not the best one but raises the chance of innocent flub.
In the truth wooper is vengeful not vigi. Scumteam killed xaya to clear his role and wooper is the one who performed fractional kill on n2. Skitter was the one who made n1 kill. Skitter was unlikely to be tracked but on n2 it was better for wooper to be tracked.

In any case Aaron looks to be inno. Sorry man I was wrong.

If this were the case then what motivation would scum skitter have to clear me today?

Eh I'm wrong about most of my reads so it's cool.

[AaronFrost]

probably not, you were not super townread yesterday

Could we state this? Was he townreaded or not? I want everyone to say what did they think about s_s after d2. That's quite relevant for solving this case.

I was still townreading him D2, but it wasn't as strong as it was D1.

[AaronFrost]

We shld probably lynch Flubz this phase pals
I know this is weak reasoning but it's +1'd by policy

Yeah we need to lynch Flubb. No way in hell am I ever investigating him.

[AaronFrost]

Didn't skitter win as scum by clearing a townie recently?

Not sure but it wouldn't surprise me if she did. Scum skitter is scary man.

[AaronFrost]

gunsmith innos in this game aren't really hard innos; at that point i was still kinda scum-reading him on play but wasn't particularly interested in pushing him given the result, so he ended up ~nullscum

given the cop claim he's p much clear now tho

This actually makes sense if skitt thought there was a chance of me being a scum doc.

What was with the 'Aaron might be a N2 vig' then?

I was vig distancing ofc
you were like "let me survive n2!!!" so optically I get why it looked kinda like it from her pov

No I meant why would skitter say that if she knew that I had no gun. Because vig shows up as having a gun right?

PEDIT: Trust me I've not cleared skitter by any means. I'm not sure I'll ever trust skitter again after Mini 2099

[AaronFrost]

Whatever was wrong with her claim, her activity nosedived after being called out and it's not a weekend

'Her activity nosedived'

Checks activity levels. See's that skitter is top poster.

What

[AaronFrost]

gunsmith innos in this game aren't really hard innos; at that point i was still kinda scum-reading him on play but wasn't particularly interested in pushing him given the result, so he ended up ~nullscum

given the cop claim he's p much clear now tho

This actually makes sense if skitt thought there was a chance of me being a scum doc.

What was with the 'Aaron might be a N2 vig' then?

you were softing that day2 and didn't really see a reason not to let you do your thing since we were probably massclaiming today anyways

Okay but like my soft could be applied to other roles on that list, including the one I actually claimed. Obviously you knew that I couldn't be the N2 vig (or any other vig for that matter) so what did you think I was softing?

And yeah I know Wooper did the same thing but he was the one who proposed the theory first.

[AaronFrost]

From my count Flubb is at L-2. Well L-1 after I do this.

VOTE: Flubb

Regardless of skitter's inconsistencies, I'd still rather lynch Flubb today.

[AaronFrost]

Got a not guilty on Kerset.

I'd still like an answer to this question.

you were softing that day2 and didn't really see a reason not to let you do your thing since we were probably massclaiming today anyways

Okay but like my soft could be applied to other roles on that list, including the one I actually claimed. Obviously you knew that I couldn't be the N2 vig (or any other vig for that matter) so what did you think I was softing?

[AaronFrost]

vote skit

Tried to block kill by blocking skit. Didn't work.

Why? If skitter is scum here then she's smart enough to know that she shouldn't have killed last night.

[AaronFrost]

We established at the end of the previous day that Town!Flubs meant Skitter was more likely town. Fetchd then blocks the best PR left which is just anti-Town in general, because even if we were to lynch Skitter today that info could have proven valuable.

VOTE: Fetchd

Why wouldn't Fetchd block me then? My power is arguably more useful than skitt's.

Why exactly does Flubb flipping town make skitter more likely to be town again?

[AaronFrost]

Why'd you check kerset ?

They were a null/question mark slot.

[AaronFrost]

Am I the only one seeing Fetchd/skitter team right now? Like Fetchd blocking skitter is a bad move regardless of their alignment. UNLESS they're scum together and they're attempting to bus each other. Like I think Fetchd is smart enough to know that skitter's not going to be doing the kill after yesterday and that he's better off going for one of the VT claims.

And why exactly did skitter check Fetchd? There were better slots to check in my opinion.

The fact that they targeted each other does not feel like a coincidence to me.

[AaronFrost]

Not if she is confirmed scum, which she is.

Likely scum =/= confirmed scum. Like yeah I agree that skitter looked really bad yesterday, but I hate the use of the phrase 'confirmed scum' where it doesn't apply.

[AaronFrost]

We lynch Fetchd today, there are then no more roleblockers in the game.

Skitter investigates Suji, Frost investigates Adorbs or Wooper.

Frost is most likely killed, but Skitter will have a result. If Fetchd flips green (unlikely) then we lynch Skitter to confirm the result.

Between Skitter/Fetchd there is surely at least one scum. By the time they're both dead the game is basically solved by PoE.

And I got a clear on Kerset too which helps us PoE.

I agree there's at least one scum in skitter/Fetchd. Could be both.

I'd be okay with lynching Fetchd today.

[AaronFrost]

If you were blocked then Fetchd would be confscum.

He might have got away with blocking Skitter as she was heavily scumread Yesterday.

I mean Sirfetchd blocking skitter is also kind of a scum claim. Like I think he's smart enough to know that scum skitter wasn't going to do the kill after being highly suspected the day before. He'd have been much better off going for whoever he thinks skitt's partner is and the play just doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

[AaronFrost]

I'd like to hear from Fetchd why exactly he targeted skitter first.

Same with skitt, I'd like to hear why she targeted Fetchd.

[AaronFrost]

I'm intending on voting Fetchd today but I want answers to my questions first.

[AaronFrost]

You didn't call JK scum pick yesterday and as far as I recall JK was statistically picked by town.
I can totally see the idea behind jailing skitter, he was SR and didn't expect to be jailed.
VOTE: skitter

I disagree. I think skitter, if she's scum, thinks that she's going to be roleblocked and doesn't perform the kill. I also think that Fetchd realizes that skitter is being scumread enough to infer that she won't be the one killing that night so he's better off going for whoever he believes skitt's partner is. That's what I'd have done as the jk in this situation.

[AaronFrost]

And look at this progression:

I feel like despite skit being 'wrong'. I don't see a reason for her to lie here. Keen for why there's no result seeing as SS isn't commuter. That bit is weird bc I didn't target skit.

He went from this, to suddenly hard-SR’ing Skitter for the same thing.

He saw Flubs - Skitter as an easy path to LYLO, most likely.

Huh I didn't even notice the weird progression. Think that's a +1 to my Fetchd/skitt scum team theory.

[AaronFrost]

Fetchd's move makes no sense as either alignment. If he's town and skitter is scum, then he should know that skitter won't be the one killing and that he should roleblock one of the VT claims. If he's scum, and skitter is town then blocking a claimed PR is an instant scumclaim. If they're scum together then the move makes more sense if they are going for the bus. If they're both town then what even is life.

PEDIT: You were my second option

[AaronFrost]

Billy Pilgrim (8):

Xayah

,

Luca Blight (most likely town)

,

skitter30 (possibly scum)

,

Wooper(most likely town)

,

Kerset

,

rb

,

AaronFrost

,

Sujimichi (possibly scum)

Xayah (2):

Sirfetchd (most likely scum)

,

Billy Pilgrim

Kerset (2):

Flubbernugget

,

nomnomnom

rb (1):

PMysterious/Adorable (???)

Not Voting (1):

Something_Smart

Billy Pilgrim is today's putative lynch. If Governor and/or Vengeful exist, they should submit their actions now.

Twilight ends in:

(expired on 2019-11-03 19:38:00)

Looking at some VCA on Day 1 and there's a few things of note here.

skitt was the first person to vote for Billy on D1. She hopped onto me at some point but then switched to Billy shortly after. This lends some credence to skitt being town here as I don't think skitt would bus her partner when he wasn't in danger of being lynched at the time. If skitt was towards the end of the wagon, I'd be more concerned about this.

Fetchd did not vote for Billy at any point during D1. He saw an opportunity to hop on me pretty early on then when I started the Xayah wagon, he hopped on there and parked his vote there for the rest of the day.

Sujimichi was inactive for most of the day but came in to quickhammer Billy after being prodded by the mod. Suji continues to fly under-the-radar.

[AaronFrost]

So yeah I think the evidence is pretty damning against Sirfetchd.

VOTE: Sirfetchd

This is L-1

[AaronFrost]

I still don't trust Skitter. Sirfetchd gets lynched, Skitter invests Suji and either Suji gets cleared as town or comes up as guilty and if they get cleared as town then that just leaves the last remaining scum to be Skitter and I can see this as a good attempt to frame me and get me mislynched next day phase. Whoever is the third scum is either Suji or Skitter.

Honestly, it won't matter too much. Either way it goes, we'll have scum in our hands.

Suji inno leaves you/skitt as last scum (with one mislynch to spare).

Suji guilty is gg bc either it's true or skitt is lying which means skitt is scum.

I'll investigate skitt tonight in the unlikely even that I survive.

(unless Wooper or Luca have been deepwolfing us this entire time but I don't think that's the case given the Billy wagon positioning)

[AaronFrost]

Flubbernugget 5, 7

rb 6, 9

Sirfetchd 8, 3

Something_Smart 9, 1

AaronFrost 10, 5

Xayah 11, 21

skitter30 42, 5

Kerset 1, 1

PMysterious 1, 4

wooper 3, 2

Sujimichi 3, 4

Luca Blight 4, 5

nomnomnom 4, 7

Billy Pilgrim 4, 8

Here's some draft pick analysis with alignments if someone smarter than me wants to take a look at it.

[AaronFrost]

Do you think Wooper is scum?

[AaronFrost]

If you really are concerned about Wooper then that's something you guys will be able to sort out tomorrow.

As for right now though, I'm hungry. Let's make some duck stew.

[AaronFrost]

I'm ready for a hammer. I've pretty much said everything I've wanted to say.

[AaronFrost]

Nah I don't see the need.

[AaronFrost]

skitter I look forward to the day where we actually roll the same alignment lmao

I also called that bus on like D4.

Well played everyone!

[AaronFrost]

Am I the only one seeing Fetchd/skitter team right now? Like Fetchd blocking skitter is a bad move regardless of their alignment. UNLESS they're scum together and they're attempting to bus each other. Like I think Fetchd is smart enough to know that skitter's not going to be doing the kill after yesterday and that he's better off going for one of the VT claims.

And why exactly did skitter check Fetchd? There were better slots to check in my opinion.

The fact that they targeted each other does not feel like a coincidence to me.

Obligatory self-praise moment, I just want to point out that I called this on like Day 4.

[AaronFrost]

Aaron you were fabulous.

<3

[AaronFrost]

Yeah when you said I was softing TPR I honestly thought you had seen my crumb. Then you mentioned the N2 vig thing and I was like yeah not gonna confirm of deny right now.

The way you handled mass claim pretty much solidified you as town to me.