Open 770: Monty Hall Mafia (Game Over)

[Bingle]

VOTE: RC

Policy.

[Bingle]

Wait a minute...

[Bingle]

We should vote for the intersection of hardest to read/most likely to be strong for town on P1, btw. Which... yeah, that might be me, if only because of the first category.

[Bingle]

2 things:

B: We're voting on who not to kill right now.

IV: The list was finalized at some point before post 12, and that's all we should be able to know.

Why would that info implicate/clear ducky?

[Bingle]

Is arcangel included as a bird because of the wings?

Also, where is Lovebird in the list? I assume you're the worst bird?

There's too many birds in this game.

[Bingle]

I'm not a bird, and half of Nubbers isn't a bird at least. Gamma at least is a rock. Possibly an island.

[Bingle]

I took a dump on Gamma Emerald.

Lucky.

[Bingle]

[Bingle]

Gotta say, I'm kinda disappointed that RC repped out, even if he was replaced by a solid A player. I was looking forward to policy lynching him during P1.

[Bingle]

Hi! I've never played with you afaik, but I reviewed/backup modded a game where you were scum and beeboy claimed masons with you.

On a completely unrelated note, I'm masons with Lovebird.

[Bingle]

VOTE: Bingle

I probably kill Penguin then duck in this list. Everyone claim your top two kills if scum. We’ll ey this game rolling if it kills you.

[Bingle]

For serious tho, penguin, who would you kill looking solely at player list.

[Bingle]

Word of warning, I’m going to be low efforting for a week or two cause moving.

[Bingle]

I’ll probably share the whole move story in speezy or something when it’s over, tw, but yeah, I’ve been in the process of moving for about 8 months which is it’s own special form of hell.

I want to be protected n1 because then I specifically can’t be protected n2. I’m not going to be the player everyone knows is town at the end of tomorrow and I’m a reasonably likely nk in a vacuum. I would also want this as scum, but mostly because it takes me off of the lynch table for D1 and explains why I’m not dead d2.

Probably just gonna hammer the first name to hit l-1 this phase though because in the absence of someone like RC who can and will present a threat to scum D1/2 the first protection is largely meaningless. I would kill pp and ducky of the list first because they’re both difficult mislynches, which makes both of them decent p2 votes.

Weak tr on pops.

Be back tomorrow.

[Bingle]

When Bingle gets here I want him to help me figure out whether tw actually has a murky sanity cop clear effect even if an active player was scum

Ducky has a 22% chance, everyone else has a 25% via Monty Hall. Doesn’t matter whether scum changed the list or not.

There seems to be an inordinate number of potential tow slips, not sure if I believe all of them are legitimate. I need to check pops’ understanding of the setup via the discussion thread. Both of these are probably tomorrow night.

[Bingle]

Spoiler: Potential townslips. Not trustworthy per se, but I don't see 2 scum in these three.

i can give my full reasoning if needed but i'd probably rather not

of everyone i think bingle is someone who's well known enough and has a formidable enough presence as town that most scumteams would at least seriously considering submitting him as a delayed n0 kill.
there are other considerations but i don't really regard them as consistently probable as bungle.

Alright, since I replaced into a slot, I can't say anybody would target me for some reason since I didn't exist yet. Lovebird is someone I dont know, but I'm just gonna pray they aren't important to most of ya so I can just survive day 1.

This is me defaulting and refusing the n1 protection btw. I also refuse the day 1 lynch but that's obvious.

Too protect, i uh... Theres so many dang replacements I can't tell who was up for selection during the mafia pre-game phase.

Lovebird, Chemist, and Gamma plus 1 I see were garunteed, atleast. I think Pop too? Actually I think I just want the list of people who were on the selection for the pre-game first.

@mod

was the kill list locked before or after replacements?

also i'll spam post because both bingle and pp would put off reading the thread longer if it seems like there's more to have to read

not salamence though I think he'd eat that ish up

Nope.

A nonzero component of my motivation was Bingle was kind of resonating about protect phase being so crappy and harder to dayplay through and get good reads going and that was resonating with me.

Monty Hall and activity lolhammer motivations are fancier though.

Probably town.


The fact that I don't see two scum in Duck/Chem/EJ means the PoE pool of me/EJ/Chem is pretty

Someone walk me through why that pool exists in the first place, given that we have a mechanical PoE pool that has literally two more players and the wagon doesn't seem particularly unlikely to contain scum.

My Monty Hall Math was off, btw, but not because of monty hall but because I was working with a 9 player assumption (not sure why).

Ducky has a 2/7 chance of being scum. Anyone else chosen has a 2/6 chance, via Monty Hall math. Now, in future days, the player who we protect should also be the one we least suspect because they are also the one who can't be conftowned, but for today with the low information? Flashwagoning was definitely the right choice.

VOTE: PP

Questions?

[Bingle]

Sorry I flaked out guys. Legitimately thought I'd declared V/LA, but I was in the middle of a snowstorm when I got the prod.

[Bingle]

I don't like this setup

I think increasing one players' chance of being scum isn't very fun, you're asking people to either vote against their gutreads or leave value on the table. I don't see how that's fun at all.

Monty Hall is a fun thought experiment... not an actual game design.
It's not the worst thing ever ever ever but I think so many setups are better.

I loved this game but I'm also on the fence about the MH mechanic. That said my scum style is hitting the game with a hammer until it is dead so maybe this calls for more finesse. Who knows.

I think this makes for a nice marathon tbh like MFD being able to sway people's perceptions for a moment adds a lot you know? I think I coasted LP1 in part because I seemed to have been protected at face value.

Great modding as always, Ausuka!

I think it's an odd setup in that you should definitely just random gut choose the first protect, but subsequent protects are almost more important than the lynches themselves. I also think it might be more fun as a longer game where you have more time to try to narrow things down. I wouldn't judge the setup on this run either way because there was a LOT of replacing tainting the well, so to speak.

[Bingle]