Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Looker]

reading
UNVOTE:

[Looker]

"Townbloc" in which sense ?

I see you signed up right before this game - do you have any prior mafia experience?

I played a few games on "AoPS" and on a platform called "Zoom", where it is possible to have eye contact with the players. I had a brief trip to "E.M" and "ToS", where I got negative experiences, until I found MafiaScum. My affinity with the theme is average.

Do you feel it's possible or effective for town to 'townblock' on Day 1? How do you ensure it's not a scheme to relinquish accountability for groupthink?

What was the rationale for that?

for the plan? pseudo-investigative, and also to keep the Hider's identity hidden. If the hider suddenly dies, we'd know who they were targeting without outing who they were. If they suddenly die in a later night, then that will confirm the players from previous days without needing to come out and say they are clear.

for the objection? This plan has a false positive if the Hider visits the Vigilante, but this is resolved if we have a Tracker instead of a Vigilante. Midari seemed convinced that we would have a vigilante, or at least didn't think it obvious that we should have a Tracker.

I think it's too easy to spot the vig with that tactic.

---

• I've played with word before.
  
• Lynch preferences are 31% marashu | 24% deimos or word321 | 20% Battle Mage or Tuxedo Mask | 13% Doctor Drew or ceejayvinoya | 9%
  midari
  Penguin Power | 3% Superbowl, votato, worcester,
  piisirrational
  Nash.

VOTE: Marashu I like the divisiveness of a counterwagon, and I don't understand why Marashu unvoted.

p-edit: G-1

[Looker]

I already said I wasn’t reading, so yeah. Show me.

My spirit animal.

Spoiler:

I think it's too easy to spot the vig with that tactic.

---

• I've played with word before.
  
• Lynch preferences are 31% marashu | 24% deimos or word321 | 20% Battle Mage or Tuxedo Mask | 13% Doctor Drew or ceejayvinoya | 9%
  midari
  Penguin Power | 3% Superbowl, votato, worcester,
  piisirrational
  Nash.

VOTE: Marashu I like the divisiveness of a counterwagon, and I don't understand why Marashu unvoted.

p-edit: G-1

+1 for wanting an explanation on word. While we're at it, care to also explain why Nash is a top town read? And why do you think there will be a vig?

I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.

• I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
• And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?

---

• Is there a fascination with anime that someone could sum up?
  
• If there are any claims, please let me know, because I don't understand why I shouldn't be suspecting Deimos or Word.
  
• I don't really know any of you people, especially not enough to meta you. Who knows what you're going through IRL.
  
• I think it's informing when we have two major wagons going on at the same time. At the time of my vote, it was Marashu vs PenguinPower - I think Marashu is more likely to flip scum than PenguinPower.
  • I don't see how "I think I've come around on" this person is an explanation.

[Looker]

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Marashu, claim.

Agreed.

Spoiler:

Marushy is at El-1 and I don't understand why. Can someone please fill me in before a hammer drops??

Like, I just went through and read Mara's Iso and I don't see scum motivation there. Like no scum ping or anything from the slot! Overall it was a very neutral read. So what am I missing here?

Is it a gameplay difference in the new generation of players? I haven't played with many 2019s and I don't think I have with any 2020 joindates other than alts, so maybe they have a tell that I am missing??

@Nash,
Consolidation on a wagon is fine at only a couple days left but El-1 is not a consolidation vote. It is not a pressure vote. It shows you want this stot eliminated. What is your case here, other than consolidation?

Man, I haven't played in a newbie game in a while. PenguinPower, save me!

If marashu is town, this guy is mafia trying to anticipate a good position on the ml scenario for tomorrow.

I don't know how AI survivalism is.

---

• Who's SUPP?
  
• Non-mechanical townblocs are suspicious
  • Also, I've watched plenty anime, I just don't get using it for a pfp - you're nowhere near like any of those people. Representation's a big thing in my community right now.

[Looker]

• I want in that Speakeasy group

I'm curious what the hold-up is. I could see if we had a competing wagon, but we just have people not voting at all.

[Looker]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I need 3 votes on Marashu.

It confuses me that we still have non-voters. I guess I'm just destined to be confused.

---

• Deimos is being sarcastic. If he really wanted to read me, he'd read my old games or hold me accountable to my flips.
  • Also, "prompts" are weird - just ask. Marashu not being flipped despite so much effort is suspicious to me, about as suspicious as two players getting townbloc'd on D1 with no mechanical info.

[Looker]

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

What I'm asking is, in this specific scenario, which PR would you have claimed? Because I don't think Marashu had a choice, and the only advantage I see is given to scum because they're the only ones who know definitively whether Marashu is town or not.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

I'm used to conftown meaning confirmed town. But my point still stands - he's not. I'm not seeing where your confidence is coming from.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

I don't believe you. I don't know whether to consider that daytalk between you and Deimos or you grasping for straws in an attempt to spare Marashu, but I don't believe you.

---

I'm assuming we're going to drag this all the way down to deadline. Oh well.

[Looker]

Mara, can you provide a Nash case?

So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.

R

E

A

D

S

Spoiler: votato

I'm actually kinda surprised why they ended up in a lot of your townpools. No RVS vote was placed (scummy), and I don't find anything in their ISO which gives me town pings either - 70% of it is just fluff. I'm gonna need someone to explain their TR here. The only vote ever placed was on superbowl, and I don't like that at all.

Spoiler: Midari

The self vote (44) is suboptimal scum play since it's anti-town and will be scrutinized at some point. I think scum!Midari would have pondered upon this, so the defensiveness in (76) gives me weak town pings (since it was only RVS). I'm not sure why she had a TR on votato at that point, and I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the justification in (139), but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss. I think the vote progression from this slot is pretty natural and I disagree with the implications of (392) and (411).

Spoiler: Deimos

Strikes me as the towniest so far, although some of his reads don't really resonate with mine.
In response to (62) and (145), I'm curious to hear his thoughts on vota.
What causes the townlean on superbowl and Worcestershire (237)?
Why is word suspicious?

Spoiler: Worcestershire

Placing naked votes and failing to pick up on BM's humour in (169) are probably results of a greater cognitive load, which is likelier to come from newbie scum under pressure. But I have no idea of his meta so the read is weak. Why is the slot being townread?

I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later.
VOTE: votato for now.

This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.

Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.

The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.

[Looker]

^I think this is Marashu's post

[Looker]

We have 39h left. Gypyx is still catching up. We have time to explore Nash, even if it is just to set up for D2.

D2 flips will be decided D2. I'm not going to give scum any WIFOM.

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

Do you think that he feels threatened?

[Looker]

Spoiler:

Done catching up, i have mara as light scumlean but i'd much rather have a penguin Execute there

Def holding off on a hammer until Gypyx gets a chance here.

I will get you that readslist D2.
I would consider a Nash elim reasonable though right now. That would be my preferred I think.

Why wait D2 to provide content? You're never sure if you're making it to D2, as if you

knew

you were making it into D2

I don't want my readslist to effect the nightkill.

Nightkill's over - what do you think?

Also - what do you think of Nash skipping over PenguinPower to vote me?

---

VOTE: Nash Welcome to Froppy, and I think Nash's failed bus and skipping over PenguinPower to attempt a counterwagon on me tells us that Marashu/PenguinPower/Nash are the scumteam.

[Looker]

Spoiler:

...I don't want my readslist to effect the nightkill.

Nightkill's over - what do you think?

Also - what do you think of Nash skipping over PenguinPower to vote me?

---

VOTE: Nash Welcome to Froppy, and I think Nash's failed bus and skipping over PenguinPower to attempt a counterwagon on me tells us that Marashu/PenguinPower/Nash are the scumteam.

Because I wasn't convinced by the case on Midari. Your slot seemed scummiest through town!Mara.

So now that we know Marashu was scum, who are his partners?

---

• Assuming there's a mechanical solve as to why Doctor Drew is scum, I'd rather flip Nash now and flip Drew in the event BM is NK'd. I see no reason to sway my intent.

[Looker]

Spoiler:

Because I wasn't convinced by the case on Midari. Your slot seemed scummiest through town!Mara.

So now that we know Marashu was scum, who are his partners?

---

• Assuming there's a mechanical solve as to why Doctor Drew is scum, I'd rather flip Nash now and flip Drew in the event BM is NK'd. I see no reason to sway my intent.

My best guess would be TM/votato ignoring the possible mechanical solve. You are still in my scumlist.
Why is skipping over PP scummy? Circular reasoning?

I don't see how you're trying to engage or flip your scumreads. Also, I think you're scum, and the only reason you wouldn't jump ship from a scum wagon (Marashu) to the next biggest wagon (Penguin Power) would be if the next biggest wagon was also a scum wagon.

I will say that there being no mention of Nash, like not a single one, in Mara's Iso until more than 700 posts into the game, and then 43 mentions in the following 200 (I mean, half of that is the broken quote but still) with a sudden scumread is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for. I am going to have to do some wagonomics on it and see if the pivot looks like scum trying to save their ass, scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives, or like scum flailing.

• "scum trying to save their ass" = Nash town? Nash scum?
  
• "scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives" = Nash scum?
  
• "scum flailing" = Nash town? Nash scum?

Where you end up isn't going to be contingent upon everyone else's conclusion while you're doing your projects, is it?

---

• I don't understand what word321 is saying. Is he saying that he thinks I'm scum because I voted Penguin Power ("PP") at some point?

[Looker]

Tuxedo, where am I in your readlist?

Is Aristophanes your partner and you're waiting for him to get back before you vote? Did not having daytalk throw off your bussing of Marashu?

Spoiler:

that's L-2 as well, so you may as well claim. then we are 100% eliminating either you or PP today.

VT

But

Spoiler:

I still think the VT claim was a bad move as scum.

---

• I feel Froppy has an exaggerated sense of self.
  
• I don't see how I'm "coasting" through the game when I clung tight to the Marashu wagon and didn't jump off when people kept trying to make it die.
  
• I'm already starting to not like Froppy. As a player.
  • "I haven't seen Looker post since I've joined" - I posted an hour after she joined and even welcomed her.
  • "What's your opinion on the new stuff?" - What new stuff? Be specific.
  • "What's your opinion of my slot? Not whether I'm scum or town" - You [redacted], I don't even know who you are.
• Nash has a unique way of saying "chainsaw defense".

Hider plan is cool, what did PP claim?

[Looker]

Waiting for Nash and Aristophanes.

[Looker]

Prod received.

I have to shower then I will work on a post here.

That's a lot of stalling.

Prod received.

I have to shower then I will work on a post here.

Long shower there, buddy.

What do you think about Gypyx not voting? Or contributing?

Agree with the hider list.
VOTE: PenguinPower if we aren't eliminating elsewhere.

Where did you want to eliminate initially? You avoided putting down a vote.

[Looker]

VOTE: PenguinPower

[Looker]

VOTE: superbowl9

I think you're a really good player, Nash, so don't feel bad about losing two partners in a row. Sometimes people are just really on it.

So if Drew is hider that means he targeted BM and word :/
If looker is hider he targeted gypyx and and froppy, potentially clearing gypyx, which would give us 5 conftown and a win

(Assuming they followed the strats both days)

I'm simple VT. Also scum hammerer, but they didn't put that in my role pm.

2. Drew, Froppy, and Dunstrall investigate Ari, gypyx, and looker respectively

A visit from Dunnstral in the middle of the night? Oh my!

VOTE: Nash The skipping over Penguin Power from Marashu to me thing.