Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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yeah but this was on D1 when they were probably still just figuring things out. i imagine the fear of town dunking all 5 ppl off the wagon expecting to find a higher concentration of scum there is naturally scary and some they would've at least discussed for someone to hop on the wagon. He was kind of at D-1 for a bit too, it's not like town quickdunked him
if it makes you feel better i don't think that there is any real difference in dunking you or isis first. we can get isis first if you'd prefer-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i don't hate this team if you think they could've all stayed off with some small chance.In post 1174, Marksman wrote:Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partnerIn post 898, Lavender wrote:Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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can you clarify what your stances on each of these players are from this?In post 1196, Casey wrote:
I did recently.In post 1189, innocentvillager wrote:i think we should all reread all of D1 especially the interactions around clone and clone's posting with the knowledge of people we know are town now and give our thoughts tomorrow. i feel like that might be the biggest source of information because we KNOW so many alignments from back then.
Mark and WLC had the biggest kerfuffle that lasted from the "explain the reads on the people who haven't posted" to WLC's ultimate dunk.
Nono, turns out, was actually right all along with their master plan.
He also had small conversations with me and A50.
CE and Hellbooks bothered him briefly, but he didn't really pay them much attention.
All other posts were NAI for me. He really avoided any true confrontation.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i kind of buy this as town!Hiraki tbhHiraki wrote:
No one - I'm fearful to scumread anyone. That being said, I'll draw the first move. I don't really know if this flips scum because I don't know if anything flips scum at this rate but I know at least that if this is scum, it would be very annoying to see this slot win.In post 1208, Raya36 wrote:Who are you scumreading again?
Vote: Lavender-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i think really casey and i should just decide the remaining dunk order and everyone just complies
there's way too much scum influence otherwise ESPECIALLY with the clock THIS LOW
if you don't want me helping decide that's fine, I don't have a great sense for the solve myself
worst case scenario we go in kind of a random order and we should win at least sometimes, which is much better than frantically just going for what everyone wants collectively-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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this is a good/somewhat nuanced observation and shows some attempt at solving but fakeable I fear and really not that useful at this point.In post 1220, Almost50 wrote:In post 1072, Casey wrote:Imagine being this close to sweeping the game as maf and NOT hammering a freebie like Nono.
Either all 3 maf are on the Nono wagon, or Nono is maf.
Only aIn post 1073, Casey wrote:All the maf have to do at this point is not vote and idle out and they win. Keep that in mind.towniecan make these two consecutive posts, considering they contradict each other in essence.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i have been on every dunk because WE HAVE BEEN MOVING WAY TOO SLOWLY THIS GAME AS TOWN. We have to make like 5 more dunks to win and we literally do not have enough time to talk this out as a town anymore and get votes properly, so I really propose that we just give the game to Casey and me (or just Casey) and everyone complies.
literally every dunk we did I have been successively less happy about.
I'll take responsibility for Hayasaka and hellbooks, I genuinely wanted to flip those two.
I did not approve of Chem Elem or Nono, especially not Nono. But the game was stalling out
i regret in hindsight but also in general about not pushing for Hiraki instead like Isis suggested because it would've been better to flip that slot early. Maybe I let Nono's adamant scumread on me get to me a little, idk.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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just to clarify:
letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.
for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):
random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i think you are delusional if you are town here and you think we can just talk out 5 dunks in less than 2 days and hope that 3 scum doesn't influence the town to win way less often than normal.In post 1229, Marksman wrote:No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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but this is the whole problem in mafia. adverse selection. it's especially true when reads are all over the place. Assuming you are town, when you are right your wagons are much less likely to go through than if they are wrong, in which case they will almost certainly go through. This is the "worse than random" aspect.In post 1237, Marksman wrote:That's if Casey is town. I townread her, but letting her decide the dunks is strictly worse than going for who I think is scum, unless I think I am absolutely garbage at mafia.
I have given the alternative already, and I like the baseline random win rates from my model. They are much better than just letting scum influence what's going on, as I've said.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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you're not convinced by my solve, i doubt im going to be convinced by yours (again we can try, but again we have less than 2 days), and when you are right there's abig chance scum doesn't let that happen.
unless people are super super super confident and are willing to give a super compelling case for people that makes them way way way more or less likely than random to be town/scum i don't want to even try speeding the game up and doing things normally.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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i don't think it's significantly less or more likely that Hiraki is scum or town here. I can easily see town!Hiraki just being wrong and scum just letting the pushes happen to set him up for a misdunk later. I can easily see scum!Hiraki accepting his role in actively only pushing the misdunks himself as a sacrifice for the team-
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@Casey when you get here, we should go with whoever you believe. If you think Hiraki is the best dunk INDEPENDENTLY (I think the crowd selecting Hiraki makes him slightly more likely to be town than random barring any reads, but I can't deny that he has pushed 4 misdunks and scum has plenty of motivation to do that) of everyone else we should go for it, but if you don't please say so and we should switch.
We really need all TOWNIES to cooperate with this plan. If you are town, PLEASE THINK about it independently because I think scum is more likely to resist this plan than town because they are so close to winning, they don't want to leave it up to chance. For a town in as shit shape as we are CHANCE is our friend.
I know it's hard to give up CONTROL to one (mostly cleared) person who we don't know will make the right decisions. I KNOW it's hard to put down our personal convictions and reads. But really I think it's necessarily if we are going to maximize the chance we win collectively. Mafia is NOT JUST ABOUT YOU BEING RIGHT. It's about actually getting scum eliminated.-
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fwiw i really hate this line by Isis even though we shouldn't be talking about this, we should be talking about the plan.In post 1240, Isis wrote:but if someone I townread as much as Nono was alive I wouldn't want to vote just because we nominated a captain
what is the point of saying this? you clearly don't have any townreads nearly as strong as Nono if you're saying this as a hypothetical. the scum!Isis motivation here I see is to hop on the idea for towncred but also plant the idea in other townies' minds like "oh yeah, I wouldn't want Casey to elim my top townread [blank]! screw this plan, I'm going with my reads on this!"-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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okay we have A50, Isis, Lav, me (probably casey) on board, great
hiraki will probably agree because he's the next dunk almost for sure otherwise
marks i imagine will object
raya idk just whenever you get a chance i think she'll agree though given how clueless she seems.
Well we have a big majority so that's good enough. casey, it's all in your hands. Pls come and decide for us
You don't even have to be right, use an RNG if that's what you want (in fact you probably should if you're not confident at all to avoid scum influence). You just have to be town which we are just hard assuming at this point
again if casey is scum we have already lost there is no way we are ever eliminating that slot right with the deadline so that's not even a big risk.-
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that would be like one of the sickest scumgames of all time. i really wish i could just simply do whatever the fuck im doing this game as scumIn post 1261, Raya36 wrote:Watch it be Inno and Casey and like Isis or something insane like that.
like i totally did not need to do anything if that was the team, like what's the point with Casey as scum the game is over anyways-
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it has nothing to do with your abilityIn post 1269, Casey wrote:
I don't know whether to feel good about that or be offended.In post 1230, innocentvillager wrote:letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
VOTE: Hiraki-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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again, imagine Hiraki flips green and we don't have a town leader leading us in 3v4 lylo. we are so screwed in that case because the moment a town votes another town scum can blitz.
this is part of the benefit of this strategy. i mentioned a while ago that if we got two clears and they decided on some random dunking order that town was like almost certain to win (80-90%+ depending on the exact numbers) assuming those two clears were actually town. Obviously we didn't implement it at the time (and should not have), but look where we (kind of) are now.
in this setup if scum can infiltrate the top townreads they win. If town finds two genuine clears, scum are almost screwed. If town can even find one clear, town win rate increases drastically increases because there is an unbiased voice leading and they can come up with an order that is presumably at least as good as random.
so with all this kerfuffling the past 7 days we've found Casey as a universal townread so by all intents and purposes we've found a semi-clear. That's not something to scoff at, that takes lots of effort and discussion and interactions and whatnot.
if town!Casey ends up "losing us the game" I don't blame her one bit. I blame luck. You do what you can, but at the end of the day reads are imperfect. They're a lot more random than we think-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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In post 1042, Raya36 wrote:Hey inno, would you like to help us dunk hiraki?In post 1046, Raya36 wrote:
But...In post 1044, innocentvillager wrote:i refuse to vote my Leader
In post 977, innocentvillager wrote: scum in {Isis, Leader, spicer, Lav} ?In post 1076, Raya36 wrote:Those not on Nono yet, please consider what Casey just said as well as the short deadline and that we'd need time for mdlo (I guess that's the abbreviation?) and please hammer Nono. I'm almost certain this flips redIn post 1091, Raya36 wrote:
I understand which is why I'd really like you to vote Nono very soon.In post 1090, innocentvillager wrote:we have to fucking marathon this shit if we are going to win, like I don't think anyone realizes how little time we have left, we need like 5 more dunks to win probably
The fact that the dunk hasn't gone through yet as Casey points out means Nono is probably scumIn post 1117, Raya36 wrote:I hate waiting for flips so much but at least we can make use of this time that the timer's stopped.
Who would you guys suspect if Nono flips red?
this progression is so towny ughIn post 1128, Raya36 wrote:This has got to be the most frustrating game
I need to re-evaluate but there isn't much time left-
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marksman has been so incredibly underwhelming lately and bordering on straight scummy.
Early on I gave that slot a pass. As the situation worsens this slot seems to care less and produce less useful content. Lately they've gone far to try and dispel my idea that one of Isis/Marksman is scum -- that was like the slot's one contribution. This feels consistent with them thinking "oh they're just going to dunk raya/hiraki in some order and we (Marks/Isis) are widely townread so whatever"-
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jesus this quote is scummyIn post 1303, Isis wrote:I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.
i think you're literally just desperate and upset at this point now I've figured out the scumteam and we're moving in the right direction when before it was almost a surefire win-
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i will get on my knees and apologize if hiraki flips red because then i am probably just confbiasing on you and wrongIn post 1303, Isis wrote:when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago
there's no reason for scum!you to give us doubt when we are already incorrectly talking about Hiraki as if he will flip green-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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how do you feel about A50?In post 1306, Hiraki wrote:I do think the solve is Marksman/Isis/?
Clearly not a good track record for me but that's my final guess. Lav? I guess for X?
I didn't like Isis' buddying with the votes situation. Felt like fake pocketing to me.
and how do you feel about my hypothesis that lav/isis are not partners because these interactions don't look SvS:
In post 1278, Isis wrote:Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?
I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool
Lavender come level up our relationship
Why'd you unvote Hiraki?In post 1209, innocentvillager wrote:
i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partnerIn post 898, Lavender wrote:Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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A50 in my opinion has also been super underwhelming lately. They made one useless post about how Casey is town and then went away again.
IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.
I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well. scum!A50 doesn't have to try anymore. The chance Marksman and Isis get dunked in the short amount of time is just so low now when the town is focused on Hiraki and Raya. Same with scum!Marksman, the only thing he really responded to lately was that one post i made where I included THIS VERY TEAM POSSIBILITY with the 100% solve. Obviously it was kind of hypothetical but he had to go against that in particular and not make efforts to reconsider his reads. Then this weird adamant refusal to hand over power to a clear when it's obvious that the idea at least has some merit.
They just need one scum kind of blending in with the town and continue trying to be protown in case. That would be Isis.-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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In post 1225, Almost50 wrote:
We have been throwing darts all game long now, and I'm afraid paranoia has already crept on me I can see almost anyone flipping red (Ironically, Casey is now my top TR).In post 1212, Hiraki wrote:If I had to make a team, I'd be throwing darts. Probably Marksman/Isis/Lavender but again, throwing darts.
Like, everybody has been ruling out IV (and even I did so based on him being early on Wey), but after 6 dunks I find myself second guessing that read. Why does IV appear on each and every dunked wagon?
As I said, I can probably see almost anyone -aside from Casey- as scum, but we all know we only have 3 scums alive; not SIX.
The funny thing is even when I take a step back and look at why X could be scum compared to why Y could also be scum I dunno if I should laugh or cry, because my reasoning appear contradictory even to me.
Picture this thought going through your mind:
IV could be scum because he's on each and every dunk
Lav could be scum because she hasn't been on a single dunk
Can you see my dilemma? I dunno if scum are helping town misdunk or letting town do all the dirty work.In post 1178, Marksman wrote:I townread Isis though, so I disagree. You're treating 0 scum being on the wagon like it has a 0% chance, when it should be more of a 10 to 40% chance or whatever.In post 1297, Isis wrote:I don't know how Hiraki usually acts after hammered but I'm hopeful he's going to flip scum. There's a lot of benefit in this situation to twilight trollIn post 1303, Isis wrote:That doesn't make sense from you when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago. I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.In post 1266, Isis wrote:Yeah I don't want to play around Casey!scum at this point even though it's not impossible
here is each of them trying to fight the solve. fight the optimal chance for town to win. why is fighting the solve scummy? because it is the strategy with the MOST REASONABLE CHANCE OF SUCCESS GIVEN OUR SHIT SITUATION but their attitudes towards these are all doubtcasting.
town thrive onprobability, coming up with the highest probability solutions and pushing reasonably probable conclusions.
scum thrive onpossibility, discrediting reasonably probable theories by town. They seek to add more "what if this", "why are we assuming this", "this could still be true"
A50: "why are we giving IV a pass? he's been on all dunks? Lav COULD be scum?"
Marksman: "why are you assuming these are the partners? maf can still be all off the way, it's possible?"
Isis: "If I had a good townread, I wouldn't want Casey to decide for me! Hiraki could be twilight trolling! why are we giving inno a pass? they could be town, they could be scum"
THESE THREE ARE THE ONES WITH THESE ATTITUDES NEAR THE END OF DAY. I simply think they are showing their true colors and motivations beyond all the D1, D2, Dx whatever fluff protown talk. I simply do NOT get this sense from anyone else in the game.-
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what does that meanIn post 1343, Casey wrote:Reading Marksman's questions to other players is like "Oops all softballs." I'm getting nothing from this.
I just dual ISO skimmed marksman and Isis. I would give them a fat 0 on your associations matrix
Some very normal interaction early and middle game and Marksman putting her as top town mid game and late game for “nuancyness”
There’s nothing to suggest they’re super partnery but definitely nothing to suggest theyre not-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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I really think the important stuff is in the late game around where town was in the dumps. Scum show their true colors there because the scum mindset is so so vastly different from the town mindset at that point. This is not the case for eaely game necessarily, scum just have to blend in then.
Even if Marksman is busy RL we cannot ignore the specific content he chooses to post with that time. This also reflects either a scum or town mindset. The scum mindset is to steer the elim away from his team casting doubt on everything and kind of blend in. The townie motivation is to focus on reads, hypotheses, re-evaluate reads, focus on solving and casing the game.
I don’t buy that town!Marksman doesn’t have tiem to play this game, has adamant reads but doesn’t push them/reevaluate/get paranoia/genuinely try to solve, and yet chooses to spend his limited time fighting a strategy that will allow for a reasonable chance of success.
There is simply a disconnect between him not pushing reads and refusing to let a town figure push reads that is rooted at its core in the different in alignment mindsets around lylo
I like skimming through the isos for associations as well but I just feel like it’s harder to find stuff there because scum can fake a lot of things with each other
If anything I think Raya and Isis not even mentioning each other at all feels slightly townier but whatever I can see a 0 in your matrix there-
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I still think this is kind of significantIn post 1209, innocentvillager wrote:
i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partnerIn post 898, Lavender wrote:Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)
I know we are thinking about this a bit differently, I am kind of pushing the scum!narrative and trying to delve into the individual mindsets of each of these players deducing what is more or less likely to come from town/scum, while you’re looking primarily at pairwise associations.
Just want to keep that in context for everyone-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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I am dead fucking serious about this btw.In post 1329, innocentvillager wrote:yeah there’s almost no fucking way this slot flips green
I will send everyone currently alive in this game $100 usd on cash app if this flips green
you’re telling me town!Isis doesn’t want $100 to get flipped? She’d rather flip someone else who she’s not sure will flip red anyway? Lmao-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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that should probably end the game if marksman flips red, marksman flips green we’d have to reconsider everything again I guess
@Townies from here on out all 4 of us need to be on the subsequent dunks (except the last one presumably if we are in 1 v 4), if any one of us just doesn’t check the thread scum can just stall out bc of limited time so just check in and plop the vote periodically
Pedit: sounds good! hope we’ve won, we make a good frantic paranoid team Casey-
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innocentvillager HeSurvivorHe
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yayIn post 1361, Lavender wrote:Alrightttt good morningeven though it’s the afternoon
VOTE: Isis
The Little Sheep Follows the Town ☆彡
Just check in periodically super briefly and keep sheeping and we should be good