Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[DrDolittle]

Is this gonna be a meme game cause I'm ok with it being a meme game

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: gpyxy

[DrDolittle]

Hoopla ur stats are not normalized

Btw big fan

[DrDolittle]

Man I am excited to solve this game via pure mechanics by like day 3

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: iamausername

[DrDolittle]

That's a lot of words to say nothing

[DrDolittle]

He jelly I'm number 1 pick and therefore the best

[DrDolittle]

I think Iama is very overreaching wrt SS

[DrDolittle]

I don't get the townread on Clover tbh., Could easily be faked for some cheap town cred. Someone said he played this in another forum? Is there any evidence of that

[DrDolittle]

SS for once hasn't sent me any scum pings which is very rare.

[DrDolittle]

Re stats. Numbers never lie but presentation and analysis does. What you get do with data is a condensation to a single statistic. How you choose to condense could be benignly wrong or maliously incorrect.

[DrDolittle]

hoopla, I would like one essay on number analysis please.

in actuality, i'd probably prefer to wagon a player who hasn't been doubled/tripled up.

can you elaborate on why you'd prefer this when you can pls ty

it was late last night, so i didn't have enough time to finish collating the data.

one more set;

of the 196 slots across 14 games, 42 are scum, 154 are town. a given slot individually has a 21.42% chance of being scum.

how often does each slot fall on a singularly chosen number? a double, a triple etc.

singleton

mafia - 20 (29.85%)
town - 47

double

mafia - 12 (18.2%)
town - 54

triple

mafia - 6 (15.38%)
town - 33

quadruple

mafia - 1 (12.5%)
town - 7

quintuple

mafia - 1 (10%)
town - 9

sextuple

mafia - 0 (0%)
town - 6

Like for example in this post. Hoopla could notice this is her scum PT as well and say guys let's both pick 5. I can use stats to defend us. Im largely uninterested in using these stats to figure out alignment, especially based on day 1

[DrDolittle]

I want gypyx to come in and give us a takeaway in what he got from the bombastic evaluation before making a read on the slot

[DrDolittle]

I have a very teeny scum read on tw but I'd rather not say what its due to and see it develop. No pressure duck

[DrDolittle]

Imagine that

Its good to be playing with u tho

[DrDolittle]

even if you are town, how do you know scum players haven't thought about your line, and have players like you in the lobby to provide them with free defense?

independently, I don't buy this line of thinking, and I don't think you should be townread for suggesting it.

[DrDolittle]

Hoopla's data collection seems like more work than scum would do; it's easy enough to say "probably scum chose different numbers" because of course town will think of that, but actually verifying this empirically is unnecessary if it were just for town cred.


115 - Why on earth would you take Hoopla's plan seriously enough to object to it? I assumed it was a shitpost.

these contradict each other

[DrDolittle]

the whole of 277 doesn't feel good
VOTE: umlaut

[DrDolittle]

involves sacrificing prs

prove this statement

[DrDolittle]

if you were right, which you are not, every scum would pick numbers like 3948 23093 2989478 to guarantee PR picks. Which obviously they are not.

[DrDolittle]

I like, just don't agree with this, especially this line:
"the main players that should be off the table today is the trio of word/crayons/iamausername. the odds of one of these players being scum is so low we'd need overwhelming evidence to take a shot there."

[DrDolittle]

the disproportionate distribution of scum at the top of the draft/on single numbers is jarring.

and I think many people have pointed this out already but you need to do a similar distribution for town to compare...

[DrDolittle]

here is my issue with your "preference". You are using "logic" to support the "preference", but the "logic" is (I feel) inadequate, which you still have not acknowledged (and is a simple fix). Yet by saying "preference", its almost uncritcizable, and I don't like that. Someone else can probably explain better than me.

[DrDolittle]

do you think 6/39 is significantly different from 3/14?
regardless I'm just gonna take the worst's advice on this

[DrDolittle]

word is english your first language or is it a romance language?

[DrDolittle]

I thought so; the use of estaDistica instead of staTistics kinda gave that away which was interesting.

regardless, I don't think I've moved the goalpost, because both of what you said I think is still true and in fact they complement each other

[DrDolittle]

are you sheeps? or are you... animal-speaking doctors and hats?

tw you know i like to bop and sheep

[DrDolittle]

actually this has kinda changed after I started playing adcarry in league

[DrDolittle]

Hold up I just had a big brained thought

[DrDolittle]

I think mech effort is more scum indicative than town indicative.

Please ask me why or think of your own reasons

[DrDolittle]

i thought i had energy to do this but i was try. try again tomorrow.

[DrDolittle]

"productive" as in posting something that looks substantive and contributing to the game wincon but isn't scumhunting

'joining'

[DrDolittle]

Whoops ghost quote. Anyways I'll be on tonight after I finish work

[DrDolittle]

I have an issue that I have a too many scum reads this game, which usually doesn't happen to me

[DrDolittle]

all right boys I'm here

[DrDolittle]

really dislike this post. "I don't think you should be townread" in particular is a phrase that feels distinctly scummy to me, there's like an undertone of bitterness to it, like DrDolittle is annoyed that people have correctly identified Hoopla as town for reasons that DrD finds erroneous.
it's like a funhouse mirror version of 'you caught me for the wrong reasons'.

No I'm calling it out as it is. I fixed the quote for you "DrDolittle is annoyed that people have

correctly

identified Hoopla as town for reasons that DrD finds erroneous." And it is true. I don't think hoopla is townie at all for a variety of reasons.

I think mech effort is more scum indicative than town indicative.

Frankly, I'm offended :X

No this is not a jab at you S_S. I was just thinking about what I would do as scum this game. At the planning phase, I would go into past games, get the list of scummy-numbers and frequency and figure out what are optimal numbers to pick with my team. Instead I just took a percursory glance to understand how the game is played and what drafting means. Thus, I think conditional on having the data ready, I'm more inclined to think that hoopla is scum.

This statement is in fact context driven by virtue of the setup.

ugh i feel like i have too many "null but kinda scummy" slots right now

hoopla, do you have any non-mech reads/hot takes to offer

this game needs more content

My views rn aligns with Dats a lot?

Oh cool, more pages.

Page 9:

• Feel like GrumpyCat is towning up. 211 is good analysis.
  
• 218 is good mech work but I hope reads are generally going to be strong enough to outweigh things like that (but then Hoopla says that too in 219[/post).
  
• S_S reaction to Hoopla's vote pings me but I can't say why, maybe it's just confbias speaking.

Page 10:

• Okay, I didn't realize how serious Hoopla was about the plan to kill from the top of the draft list. More reasonable for S_S to take it seriously as something to discuss in that case.
  
• Actually I'm more agreeing with S_S' side of the PR importance debate.
  
• TW completely missing in [post]230 that GC answered his question makes me wonder if TW actually cares about the answer as much as he's acting.
  
• 243 - did you ever go further into what's wrong with calling S_S' post "fake"? Because I kind of vibed with that description.

Page 11:

• I don't think anyone actually wants to play this game as a pure logic puzzle and I don't think there's any need to repeatedly say "let's not do that" as if there were any risk of it happening.
  
• Re. 258, I'm reluctant to take Clover's question seriously as a towntell. Town got burned badly in a recent game I was in by a less experienced player doing just that (asking a lot of "questions like these" about mechanics and whether scum could talk during the day etc., purely for the sake of looking town).
  
• DrDoolittle wifoming the setup analysis bothers me. Like in 265, do you actually think that's something scum would do purely to throw us off, vs. the chance to claim an additional PR (and potentially deprive town of one as well)? I just don't see how you can actually think this is a thing scum decides to do.
  Considers
  sure,
  actually does
  no.

Okay I caught up with my last catch-up so now it's time for lunch! At this rate I'm sure I'll be fully caught-up any week now.

I was actually originally planning to snip the analysis, but I can't shake at how bad I feel about this. There is the entire combination of Umlaut is just stating the game and recycling opinions that have been reiterated, and especially that set of reads on page 10. I read it, and reread it, and maybe I'm just not stating it correctly but there's no substance or conviction behind the posts -- in fact the strongest stance is "bothering me"? Well, this post is definitely doing that.

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

this makes no sense. generating conversation is a good thing. The most antitown game is a stagnant one. Unless you think we are coasting off pure mechtalk, which I don't think is true.

[DrDolittle]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

why do I not fit in the list?

why do I feel this underlying warmth/sincerity in words' posts..
is this what a tonal townread is????
it's been so long, I missed youuu

why do I feel this underlying warmth/sincerity in tw's posts..

seriously though I think word and tw are likely both town.

[DrDolittle]

"hey that's what i was thinking"

hi

btw @Umlaut where do you read that Hoopla has ever been not serious this game?

[DrDolittle]

why is the iamausername wagon taking off?

in my eyes, his posting seems in keeping with his usual d1 town meta; low-activity, but offers piecemeal observations, and interesting soundbites.

i suspect his posting style may not jive with this crowd.

i think that's in keeping with his style. he tends to focus on unique/specific things instead of dropping recycled platitudes.

for example, his commentary (summarised in post 160) about something_smart's strange timing about criticising my "plan" was a good observation.

I think... these posts are townie?! don't think scum really makes this post to defend town or a scum partner.

imusername's takes are too selective. Like, he's taking special care to criticise very specific things which he thinks look good to poke at or are reasonable to. The lack of ~feels~ or big picture takes is generally scum-indicative.

^ GC that's largely my issue on the username as well. But I want to take it a bit further -- I don't think these specific takes are damning at all, and if anything a bit overreaching by the way of how smoking-gun-ish username pushes them. I remember Gamma Emerald doing this various times as scum in the large theme and I incorrectly townread him for it.

not really actually

gypyx is scum

iamasuername is a good wagon for the moment, and hoopla's response to it was... off

i've a couple small townreads, which are based more on gut then anything else

and i've been open about everything so you should have no problem reading me at all

This reminds me more of town ico rather scum ico. Scum ico pushes hard one read, whereas town ico is more aware of the general gamestate.


Pedit: Umlaut, I would appreciate if you can

make

come up some fresh hot takes to impress everyone with my original and unique perspective, but even not some lukewarm originality would help me sort your slot better

[DrDolittle]

this is a correct observation. i have said nothing about townreads.

i have found myself feeling a lot of agreement with Umlaut's posts and i Do Not Get the wagon on him.

i like Hoopla. it doesn't feel like she's twisting the data to push any particular agenda to me.

i don't know if i'm entirely on board with the consensus that Clover's opening post was a town tell, but for some reason 386 makes me think he's town. like "i want to scumread X but i'm going to wait and see if anyone else does first" super reads like a scum thought process to me, but because he's straight up posting it in the thread, i don't think it can be? it's not like he's accidentally letting a mask slip and revealing his nefarious ways, he's openly admitting to them like it's no big deal.

Datisi and the worst both feel like they are genuinely trying to discern alignments here also.

those are the people i feel like i have more than a null read on.

what interesting things do you think i'm ignoring? i will happily provide commentary on up to three (3) interesting things of your choice.

This seems soooooo contrived after ico and cat called you out booooooo. Like the "I like Umlaut" is just false -- as he even himself says he has nothing new to add. The hoopla has no agenda and thus is town read seems also very forced. Does the three interesting things apply to me? I'm more interested in your read on the state of the game rather than going from these minutiae details to sweeping generalizations. Which posts of Umlaut do you agree with? Which posts suggest that hoopla has no agenda? why does my previous reasons to hoopla not apply as a possible "agenda"?

do you see me townreading gypyx anywhere????

like i know it's bad. but i also know the utility of me voting there or screaming at them right now is zero (0)

Why?

Was my vote on Green missed? Ah well, I don't mind joining this
VOTE: Dr Dolittle

After catching up on the thread, your "joining" makes even less sense. What are your reads?

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

hmm I actually don't like either of the Ico/Dats wagons.

[DrDolittle]

here to dance if anyone wants to chat

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: username

[DrDolittle]

even if you are town, how do you know scum players haven't thought about your line, and have players like you in the lobby to provide them with free defense?

independently, I don't buy this line of thinking, and I don't think you should be townread for suggesting it.

really dislike this post. "I don't think you should be townread" in particular is a phrase that feels distinctly scummy to me, there's like an undertone of bitterness to it, like DrDolittle is annoyed that people have correctly identified Hoopla as town for reasons that DrD finds erroneous.
it's like a funhouse mirror version of 'you caught me for the wrong reasons'.

& i feel like S_S has acquitted himself adequately. the post that originally bothered me makes more sense knowing he was describing 67 as a 'plan' and not talking about Hoopla's initial entry. his eagerness to jump into theory discussions where, as scum, he doesn't have to lie about his true feelings is still a little concerning, but he's hardly alone on that front in this game.

VOTE: DrDolittle

I think mech effort is more scum indicative than town indicative.

Frankly, I'm offended :X

whats a lhf

[DrDolittle]

f these ghost quotes are everywhere

[DrDolittle]

Actually I unironically like the Iconeum wagon, 530 kind of sold me on it and I feel pretty good about both Grumpy and Hoopla for town (GC I'm more eh about but not explicitly scumreading)

VOTE: Iconeum

umlaut what do you think about ico's response 4 or 5 posts after to 530?

[DrDolittle]

im going to bitch at you now

do you not have reads because you havent read the game or ???

[DrDolittle]

I mean like I could make up some fresh hot takes to impress everyone with my original and unique perspective but overall I think it's probably better to just say what I actually think instead.

this last one in particular is, as i believe the kids are saying these days, A Mood.

i dont think anyone is saying you dont have original and unique perspectives tbh

[DrDolittle]

someone asked me who are my scumreads as I said I have a lot of them
Nonordered

Umlaut
Green Crayons
Clover Ebi
iamausername
Marquis
Gypyx

thats a lot more than I usually have (maybe 1-3 at a time)

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: marquis

[DrDolittle]

is it the marathon thats stealing activity? usually this is a pretty active playerlist

[DrDolittle]

We should lynch marquis

[DrDolittle]

Alternatively I can do gypyx actually

[DrDolittle]

Yeah I don't really want anyone else. Not even you dear Umlaut you worm you

[DrDolittle]

Did she?

[DrDolittle]

If dats is scum and marquis is town, pushing the marquis elimination would make the number god frown on dats, so in that sense maybe

[DrDolittle]

NO MORE NUMBERS THIS GAME IS A GAME BASED ON LOVE AND FEELINGS

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: grumpy cat
MS is trying to foster an environment of inclusiveness where everyone can be happy. No grumpiness allowed.

[DrDolittle]

I wonder if this is an "extreme circumstance" (tm) to extend the deadline.

[DrDolittle]

I want to eliminate no low posters rn for the health of the game. The worst town is one that doesn't have conviction, which is what's happening right now with the MIA of marquis.

[DrDolittle]

replacement for marquis time?

[DrDolittle]

@drdolittle, what was up with the vote on grumpy?

i was bored

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: gypxy

[DrDolittle]

Well, we can leash it now.

i think this takes priority and we can play today like a double day?

[DrDolittle]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent),

I dont think this is true. saving the vig shot for later acts as a double day hedge if we don't manage to get scum.
its only independent if you don't consider mafia kills.

[DrDolittle]

SS remind me does it usually take this long for you to drop a vote

[DrDolittle]

Ftr im happy with where I am. I pref A50 on leash rather than lynching him right away. I will give a case on gyp after ico, but I want to see whether his thoughts and mine align

[DrDolittle]

Umlaut are you vanitying or have you just not had a chance to change votes yet

[DrDolittle]

honestly I'm not seeing it tw -- like I understand the high level intuition behind your logic, but it could also just be that he didn't think the first 5 pages produced anything productive?

[DrDolittle]

im much more invested in the gypxy wagon

[DrDolittle]

like I think gypxy has significant equity to be scum here, and flipping this slot gives me an added bonus of helping solve ico, and what derailed the wagon earlier on?
or am I being crazy here

[DrDolittle]

I agree with ico that posts before 88 is scummy, but I'm far more concerned about gypxy literally just not addressing the game on their pop in. This is not town behavior. It's new-scum caught in the spotlight and not knowing what to do.

[DrDolittle]

usually my reads flop a lot but i feel pretty consistent about this one

[DrDolittle]

I dont get it
is it bad that i've never gambited on mafiascum.com.net

and everyone and their mothers are gambiting

[DrDolittle]

Gypyx looks so scummy at first glance but I'm gonna read what S_S was saying because he says rational stuff sometimes

I'm about in this boat

but i dont really understand what S_S is saying so I'll unvote so he can explain himself UNVOTE: lest a50 does a quick hammer

[DrDolittle]

ok i went to read the slayers gambit. I think the key point there is that you like have to find scum after using it?

[DrDolittle]

Something something tables turned back
VOTE: a50

[DrDolittle]

Honestly I'm not as convinced on a50 scum as gypxy!

[DrDolittle]

Pedit yeet

[DrDolittle]

Right back at you

[DrDolittle]

Is he tho? I seem to have a bit more conviction than you on my direction

[DrDolittle]

I'm the rolecop.

[DrDolittle]

Theorycrafting tomorrow, but in short Rolecop has the highest EV.

Umlauts scum. His theory has a direct contradiction to it

[DrDolittle]

Scum or misguided I can't tell yet

[DrDolittle]

The truly ascertainable part of this game is that once you pick a pair, say cop and 1-shot redirect if you have 1-shot redirect, there is no interferences on the one-in-two that you decide to pick. In fact, in the above case, if you choose the 1-shot redirect you are essentially scumclaiming. And from the roles available 4 of them in my opinion has a clear scum favorite vs town favorite. It also happens that these 4, 3 of them are exceptionally strong pairs in general.

Cop

OR

1-Shot Redirector

Doctor

OR

Roleblocker

Jailkeeper

OR

Tracker

1-Shot Commuter

OR

1-Shot Watcher

What the rolecop in this game gets to do, is to investigate fully these 4 role-pairs (which are the roles that need to be figured out in general), in addition to keep eyes on VT/Goon roles and fake-claiming opportunities, which is infinitely more important than inheriting some role just neighbourizer. In my view, the rolecop in this game is just weaker than Cop in terms of power. Furthermore, as the number 1 pick, my job is also to deny scum their strongest possible picks and claims. The rolecop allows me to deny their counterpicks in Cop Doc and Tracker, and their relatively strong roles in JK, Roleblocker and and Role Cop itself.

I was actually pretty surprised that Marquis was scum after he claimed vig -- I didn't place very high weight in scum picking vig, because its utility is just one body; but I wasn't overly upset since Vig is negative town EV anyhow.

With that said, I actually changed my mind on the Umlaut scum read. I think in the case for which Umlaut goes for the UB/rolecop play, Marquis (pick 4) could then go for a riskier play in choosing Cop/Doc. The fact that he didn't indictates that they are unaligned together. However, what I thought my "contradiction" was was that Umlaut claimed that Vig should shoot asap, but earlier on last day, he also said that he thing vig should holster until a bit later, which I agreed on.

I don't think my crumb plays a role here? It's pretty clear that I picked role cop. It's your belief whether I am scum or town, but I'm sure to have investigated someon last night.

[DrDolittle]

However, what I thought my "contradiction" was was that Umlaut claimed that Vig should shoot asap, but earlier on last day, he also said that he thing vig should holster until a bit later, which I agreed on.

never I looped back to find the post and that was Green Crayons who suggested this

[DrDolittle]

The thing that is still bothering me is that Umlaut didn't think at all about the strong town-utility of Role Cop, which doesn't really mesh with that town!him decides to choose the backup-rolecop pair.

I still need to process this, but my kneejerk reaction is that he's upset that scum!laut's desired scum role got taken right under his nose as third pick? And that now he's slinging shade on me to say DDL chose RC -- that's the role I scum!laut wanted to pick so I'll recycle my reasons on why I think this role is good for scum to incriminate him.

[DrDolittle]

I thought i wanted to say a thing.

Then I realized that I really didn't have anything to say to someone makes the excellent deduction, if we believe A B and C is scum, then there necessarily is a scum in A B and C; and give the inspiring hot take, if two people have the same thought process, its rly high probabilities that one of em is scum and one aint

[DrDolittle]

should i hamer? am I missing anything

[DrDolittle]

lemme quickly catch up

[DrDolittle]

other than i feel just a tingle of offense that im called crazy enough? I don't rly think we need a claim here.

VOTE: gypxy

[DrDolittle]

yes i am scum umlaut, please look at me scummy scum scum

[DrDolittle]

i was bamboozled by not l-1 not l-2 but l-3



hmm

[DrDolittle]

Yes hello, VT here

Also, idk if i got hammered so i'm laying my reads

Scumread :

S_S

Scumleans :

Umlaut
username
Worst

Townleans :

Crayons
Clover
Word
Ico

Town :
Datisi
Grumpy

mfw i dont even get a place on the reads

[DrDolittle]

lukewarm take: gypxy is not mafia vengeful

[DrDolittle]

ok ill try

hey gypxy whats ur draft pick

[DrDolittle]

I have a spicy result

[DrDolittle]

No my spicy result target hasn't claimed yet

[DrDolittle]

My investigation was SS. He is the roleblocker.
Damn I thought itd be more spicy than this

[DrDolittle]

Please dont end the day without me catching up.

[DrDolittle]

what is this do I hear autowin?

[DrDolittle]

N1 Grumpy Cat

can you explain this?

[DrDolittle]

By the way DDL, did you ever claim your N1 result?

oh no, i did gypxy and he was vanilla, not that its relevant anymore.

[DrDolittle]

Confirming Grumpy Cat is neighborizer. He also told me in private that he had been blocked by S_S before S_S named his target.

Incidentally, we can confirm S_S as town (or, if he is scum, force him to no-kill for the rest of the game) by instructing him to roleblock Grumpy Cat until there is a nightkill, since Grumpy will know whether their action succeeds or not.

this is a good plan I think?

[DrDolittle]

im on page 71. I agree this game is solved

[DrDolittle]

ico is clearable tomorrow, right?

[DrDolittle]

i guess if he is n3, he really has no reason to hide it?

[DrDolittle]

vengeful even less so I suppose huh

[DrDolittle]

hmm

[DrDolittle]

i'm n3 vig haha

yeah I got to that on page 73 lmao

[DrDolittle]

yeesssss
you don't need to do anything dw we'll try and win without clearing/flipping u

ok cool works for me

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: ico
am i doing this right?

[DrDolittle]

S_S are you scum

[DrDolittle]

i dont get why SS is cleared tomorrow

[DrDolittle]

so you are saying i have a chance if i shoot umlaut tonight?

[DrDolittle]

hey dats.

if u dont investigate me then i wont kill you how about that

[DrDolittle]

ok how about we execute drd and i check ico

mmm id rather not that

[DrDolittle]

i will indeed check the good doctor

drd if ur scum shoot me ok

ok

[DrDolittle]

wtf ico dude

[DrDolittle]

like, i dont rly think you are scum

[DrDolittle]

do you need a doctor?

sure would be nice if SS is one, no?

[DrDolittle]

i lost

[DrDolittle]

i thought the no kill was pretty good play, but it was foiled by dats checking word sigh