Open 797: Bus Service [Game Over]

[Bingle]

Bingle replaces arachnidsGrip

Oh, my! If you are Scum, I forfeit the game to thee. The mechanics of the game do not give the town a realistic chance to overcome your cunning mechanical play.

Any cops that have investigated A50 are naive.

Anything I should know?

[Bingle]

Oh, hey, I just realized I've done mechspec on this setup before. I should probably go dig that up to pretend to be useful.

[Bingle]

Subject: [Setup] Bus Service

Starting with scum strats:

Variable definitions:

n= # living players
x= # living scum

Spoiler: Strongman only

Scum swaps two town players. Shoots one to kill the other.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Cop survival if unclaimed: (n-1)/n

Cop results always trustworthy.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only

Scum swaps scum and town and shoots their target directly.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n.
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 1/n.

Diminishing return on cop results.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Both

Scum swaps scum and town, nightkills scum swap.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 0.
Percentage of Innocent results that are False: 1/(n-x)
Percentage of Guilty results that are False: 1/x

Diminishing return on cop innocents.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown -1 scum.
If redirect unsuccessful, +1 conftown -2 scum.

Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.

Chance of successful protection:

n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17

Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.

Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.

Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.

My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.

I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.

[Bingle]

I've tried having underscored before and they don't let you.

He's grandfathered in I believe. I think there was something about underscores breaking the forum search function and so they removed them from acceptable username characters. NM's been around hella fortnights, though.

[Bingle]

Nandor seems tinfoily in a town way.

@Man who is totally not a horse in disguise: If I wanted to read one slot for content, which slot would be the most important to get a feel for the game?

[Bingle]

Can we get like a summary of this for the more dumb of us? Asking for a friend.

Sure.

There's no truly breaking strategy, but there is a slight optimization.

At the beginning of each day every living player should make a post that says "If I am Bus Driver I drove X and Y. If I am cop I investigated Z and they were M." You can overlap your claims as much as you want, but you should try to keep them reasonable to what you would do if you were bus driver or cop.

Power roles should claim if:

It is the day before an elimination can potentially end the game.
They have been run up and are about to be eliminated.
A bus driver gets an innocent result (this means that they targeted X and Y and Y died, therefore X was the scumkill target and thus town).

Neither bus driver nor cop should publicly hint at their targets before the night, nor should we as a group try to target them. Bus driver should focus on being a vig because changing a kill is very much so positive utility.

The setup is within an expected win rate of 40-60% for town when simulated with random eliminations (probably closer to 60 than 40, although I don't remember what the numbers actually were and would have to dig through two years of mafia bullshit to find the program that gave me the numbers).

[Bingle]

Are you calling ME dumb??

Nah. That AP guy though, he's a moron.

[Bingle]

Interesting ISO. I'll have to come back to it with context. MV is mostly correct about setup information, and if anyone cares the setup has been run before, at least once.

[Bingle]

fine im doing PBPA

Big Elephant is sounding increasingly scummy, I think the TR on MiniVirgo is a deep pocket, and they're just generally agreeing with stuff and throwing out forced reads instead of solving.

I think mech talk is a bad way to TR people fwiw

VOTE: Big Elephant

random SR on me for TRing JV for being more active and solvy and framing it as a "pocket" and SR for making "reads" LOL
second line is treading IIoA

ftr im scumreading johnny's shitpush in their opening so it'd make my day if N_M were to vote there
-shelly

I think you're the one that's shitpushing here. In my opinion, overexplanation is a scumtell and pointing that out is furthering the game.

Does anyone else see what I'm seeing here?

overexplanation it totally a personality tell and furthering the game by making something out of a NAI post is bad

N_M's bold style is pretty town!AI. Scum usually don't go against the grain like that imo.

N_M is playing like a jester, like they usually do. I don't really get why that's a good reason to TR people.

Feels like you're randomly throwing out reads like candies here. Your trajectories to get to a TR are cheap.

shutting down my TR to shade N_M subtly
im also foreign to N_M meta and making reads is again, not scummy

Something about Elephant's reads just ping me the wrong way, I guess the best way to describe it is that it seems pocket.

+1 to this

MWNN's probably town

no reasoning, TRing those who make similar reads to them = lazy reads

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

hot take: I have a mild SR on MiniVirgo. Trying to defend A50 sounds a bit like a buddy attempt imo.

i think a lot of scum are inactive

why are MWNN/A50 town???
why is the defense buddying not everything that TRs people = pocketing
why would you assume scum are active, this is prob TMI

at least 1 inactive is prob!scum, big elephant and MiniVirgo contain scum

this game is nearly solved

why does big elephant (me) and MV contain scum

MiniVirgo/Big Elephant contains scum, idk why people call BE "low charisma wagon" that slot is just obtuse and scummy

Derp is rather town imo, tone has been good, A50's playing to their town meta

get Elephant today this will solve the game

shitpushing without explaining the SR on my slot AT ALL and sheeping JV
why is derp town???? and why is the tone good

VOTE: derp

The ProfMaf cases both suck.

[Bingle]

ah, I forgot I had that quote selected. Pay no attention to the Bingle behind the bedsheet. The Bingle being projected in 3d is far more interesting.

[Bingle]

dear derp still believes this is likely to be scum hectic but dear derp is now also good with yeeting shelly for betraying my trust

so you SR everyone that SRs you

this, my friend, is truly omgus.

Only two of us said we would be willing to go derp and he has not leveled a Scum read on us?

and my axe

[Bingle]

CW is either a bad TV network that mostly targets the YA/teen demographic and has most of the DC live action serials or it stands for counterwagon. I'm really hoping for the former, it'd be way spicier.

[Bingle]

@mod:

I'm currently voting derp.

[Bingle]

The ProfMaf cases both suck.

why does it suck tho, i wanna know the why

I too would like to know why people make bad cases.

Yo, I voted for America today, took 5 hours.

Whats america running for these days? Profitting off of war and human suffering again?

I mean... Aren't we all?

[Bingle]

Spoiler: Cases

fine im doing PBPA

Big Elephant is sounding increasingly scummy, I think the TR on MiniVirgo is a deep pocket, and they're just generally agreeing with stuff and throwing out forced reads instead of solving.

I think mech talk is a bad way to TR people fwiw

VOTE: Big Elephant

random SR on me for TRing JV for being more active and solvy and framing it as a "pocket" and SR for making "reads" LOL
second line is treading IIoA

ftr im scumreading johnny's shitpush in their opening so it'd make my day if N_M were to vote there
-shelly

I think you're the one that's shitpushing here. In my opinion, overexplanation is a scumtell and pointing that out is furthering the game.

Does anyone else see what I'm seeing here?

overexplanation it totally a personality tell and furthering the game by making something out of a NAI post is bad

N_M's bold style is pretty town!AI. Scum usually don't go against the grain like that imo.

N_M is playing like a jester, like they usually do. I don't really get why that's a good reason to TR people.

Feels like you're randomly throwing out reads like candies here. Your trajectories to get to a TR are cheap.

shutting down my TR to shade N_M subtly
im also foreign to N_M meta and making reads is again, not scummy

Something about Elephant's reads just ping me the wrong way, I guess the best way to describe it is that it seems pocket.

+1 to this

MWNN's probably town

no reasoning, TRing those who make similar reads to them = lazy reads

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

hot take: I have a mild SR on MiniVirgo. Trying to defend A50 sounds a bit like a buddy attempt imo.

i think a lot of scum are inactive

why are MWNN/A50 town???
why is the defense buddying not everything that TRs people = pocketing
why would you assume scum are active, this is prob TMI

at least 1 inactive is prob!scum, big elephant and MiniVirgo contain scum

this game is nearly solved

why does big elephant (me) and MV contain scum

MiniVirgo/Big Elephant contains scum, idk why people call BE "low charisma wagon" that slot is just obtuse and scummy

Derp is rather town imo, tone has been good, A50's playing to their town meta

get Elephant today this will solve the game

shitpushing without explaining the SR on my slot AT ALL and sheeping JV
why is derp town???? and why is the tone good

Nandor is far from lock-town. ProfessorMafia is also likely Town. Can anyone actually explain the SR on them thank

- JV

how can you look at prof maf's ISO and not smell the stench?

I wanted to hear back from Prof Maf first but here's more or less where I'm at
his big elephant push is mostly done in bad faith to look active

the initial read and the vote there isn't bad, but since then he has not shown any genuine read progression, continued to shitpush big elephant with crap logic piled on top of crap logic

N_M's bold style is pretty town!AI. Scum usually don't go against the grain like that imo.

N_M is playing like a jester, like they usually do. I don't really get why that's a good reason to TR people.

Feels like you're randomly throwing out reads like candies here. Your trajectories to get to a TR are cheapl

.

Something about Elephant's reads just ping me the wrong way, I guess the best way to describe it is that it seems pocket.

+1 to this

MWNN's probably town

Hectic alt detected.

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

MiniVirgo/Big Elephant contains scum, idk why people call BE "low charisma wagon" that slot is just obtuse and scummy

Derp is rather town imo, tone has been good, A50's playing to their town meta

get Elephant today this will solve the game

Accuses BE's trajectories to TR people cheap, but is perfectly fine with throwing out TRs for no good reason

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

hot take: I have a mild SR on MiniVirgo. Trying to defend A50 sounds a bit like a buddy attempt imo.

i think a lot of scum are inactive

at least 1 inactive is prob!scum, big elephant and MiniVirgo contain scum

this game is nearly solved

calls miniVirgo scum, who is the most vocal voice in pushing BE, WHILE pushing BE himself at the same time
and then throws out the absolute banger "a lot of scum are inactive", backtracks with "at least 1 inactive scum, BE/MiniVergo contains scum"

this is a red flag, there's way many holes in his logic here, I don't see any real conviction in his read
which seems to me this is Prof Maf content with fanning the flames from the side rather than pushing his SR in good faith

teal deers:

Shelly: Prof maf had a bad push on shelly!slot. Metashade on N_M TR. ProfMaf had lazy/unsupported reads.

yessir: Prof maf push on BE is for show. Cognitive dissonance in SR-ing both elephants and mV. Cheap TR's while pushing someone for cheap TR's.

Of these, yes is actually providing a scum motivation for some of the things done, but neither of them are actually solid cases on ProfMaf.

Actually looking at the quotes shared though, paints a different picture. ProfMaf cast a vote on page 4 with pretty solid reason (given the stage of the game) on shelly. Their fluff to non fluff ratio is good, the meta knowledge of N_M is something anyone who has been in a thread with N_M for more than two sentences can share with you, the point about mechspeak being NAI is just basic mafia, and the rest of the BE case is just as hypocritical as yes is accusing Prof of being.

Further: 107, 108, 200, 373, 452 all have decent reasoning, even if I don't agree with it.

Yes's contention that there's a cognitive dissonance to thinking there is one scum in two slots that are SR-ing each other is frankly baffling. The idea that Prof is trying to look active is also pretty out there: Prof has been pretty obviously lurker-y. Their rate of content is probably the strongest contention against them, tbh. The cherry picking of 373 and 374 to show that Prof doesn't have reasons to townread is pretty :eyebrows: because 374 doesn't contain any townreads and 373 only has two, one of which he'd previously given a reason for. (In post 200)

[Bingle]

eww, speak for yourself man

Mafia is a 0 sum fun game. There is a limited amount of fun to be had, and the only way to ensure all of it is mine is to make sure no one else has any.

[Bingle]

if these were t/t CWs I would expect competent and active scumteam but considering the lurkers and how firm my TRs are on the rather active players, professor is just prob!scum by VCA

First of all, even the strongest proponents of VCA know that it's more useful as the game progresses.

Second, why would dueling town wagons support the idea of an active scumteam as opposed to a scumteam willing to let the active town players eat each other alive?

Third, who are the active players and what have they done to merit a townread?

[Bingle]

Nah man, fuck America. BINGLE FIRST, BINGLE FOREVER.

[Bingle]

I'd townread Elbirn if he switched back to the Hey Arnold avatar. Not sure why but the new one just feels off.

[Bingle]

Oh! Speaking of... Supp bet is over. brb.

[Bingle]

SWEET FREEDOM!

[Bingle]

Had a50 in locktown before but unsure now

It's always bad practice to have me as locktown this early, regardless of my alignment.

Get out of my head, monkey.

[Bingle]

So you'll forgive me I'm new to this, are we claiming what we did/ would have done as driver/cop last night or what we will be doing tonight

We would be posting our "actions" that were performed last night not our plan for the next night, that way we get the results of any randomly dying PRs without the need for them claiming.

If you're a Cop with a red-check, I think you should just out the information. And never ever hypo-claim a red-check, most likely you're just wrong and then yeeted out of the Cop poe so hard lol.

Wrong. Cop reds aren’t solid guilties here. Also cop greens aren’t solid innos. Cop should not hardclaim today.

Cop green on A50.
Bus drive NM and Shelly.

[Bingle]

NKA makes me fairly confident in Shelly town for today.

[Bingle]

Yes lived firmly in shelly’s pocket, yesterday, and wasn’t particularly towny otherwise. Shelly has more to lose than to gain by killing off her strongest defense.

[Bingle]

Elbirn is probtown, im sure someone is better at reading him than I so

I would put mini, nandor, shelly, and maybe mccree in obvtown tier

Had a50 in locktown before but unsure now

Quote for visibility.

[Bingle]

That is my interpretation, yes.

[Bingle]

But, looking at those names, Shelly was the one in danger and the one who yes alone was defending. Yes was sheeping/agreeing with Shelly about profmaf but neither of them were having any luck getting that wagon off the ground so it’s not like yes was threatening to anyone specifically. I don’t see any power role indications from yes, and yes was part of the pivot onto derp, but still stayed off wagon which is not a good look in light of the flip. I was also pretty clearly scumreading him at EoD.

This leads me to yes being killed for town blocking well, and of his townblock Shelly is the one who needs his support the most.

To a lesser extent, it also suggests either profmaf scum or a scumteam who is happy with the state of the thread.

[Bingle]

Thoughts from work - if we're all hypoclaiming cop innos and the real cop actually has a guilty, what do?

We’re not all hypoclaiming specifically innos. Hypoclaiming guilties is fine.

[Bingle]

With that said, a majority of the hypoclaiming will probably be innos as innos are more likely statistically. The whole point behind hypoclaiming is that we can wait to try and figure out results until the number of players is low enough to track bus drives more easily.

[Bingle]

I'm most interested in poking Johnny, A50 and ProfMaf atm. I'd support a PL on N_M, I suppose, because he's not being !usefulN_M but don't have confidence that's scum.

I have varying degrees of townreads on you, shelly, El, Nando. I feel like I should have a read on MV but don't. I want to hear frog noises from Froppy because she hasn't had a chance to do anything AI at all aorn.

I'm not really interested in pushing hard towards a yeet at the moment though, because I feel like there is enough content that hasn't been discussed yet that I want to see how things shake out for the moment.

[Bingle]

Cop green on A50.

I'm most interested in poking Johnny, A50 and ProfMaf atm.

Can you b a bit more obvious about NOT being the Cop? I mean, you could put it in your signature or write it on your avatar for people to notice!

Regardless of whether I'm the cop or not, I'm going to be ignoring cop results for the next couple of days. Everyone else should do the same. In this setup, cops are worth A) named townie IC status and B) Late game mech solves. That's literally the whole point of hypoclaiming in this setup. Scum cophunting have to contend with multiple busdrives AND the cops not trusting their own results to prevent them from actually finding cops.

More to the point, why would you assume that I of all people didn't think through claiming I'd have investigated you and still wanting content from you as cop or as not cop? You know that that shit is my bread and butter. Why, also, would you assume that wanting to poke you isn't regardless of my read on you? You know I like dragging information out of people.

[Bingle]

Hey, policy limming is whack. You knew you were getting a NM game. Has he done anything that shows he's scummy that he doesn't do as town? What does a NM scum game look like?

N_M has the capability of doing things that are AI and being solvey, despite his patterns. I have seen strong N_M towngames. He has not done anything near that in this game. Policy eliminations have their place, and this is that place.

[Bingle]

Man, I hate being a UTR.

I’m busy today so may not get around to things today, but I’m trying to keep an eye one the thread regardless.

[Bingle]

It’s my avatar from last year. I briefly considered making my main a wizard this year, but Jugheads crown is sacred.

[Bingle]

I miss Bangle's old avatar. I thought it was very fitting

It’s an amine when I’ve watched like three amines ever. I legitimately don’t know who the character is, although someone explained it once.

[Bingle]

If it helps, I’m assuming mwnn is desperado, bandit is pine, and profmaf is green Mario.

[Bingle]

Prof. Mafia should have been lynched by now

Cool your cowjets.

[Bingle]

If it helps, I’m assuming mwnn is desperado, nandor is pine, and profmaf is green Mario.

FTFM

[Bingle]

Froppy, what are your reads/takes?

[Bingle]

i got pushed to E-2 yesterday and now nka's rather clearing of me + I'm getting people to sheep me on my solve

im assuming that its not you that says NKA clears you, right?
-sen

:raises hand:

that would be an interesting change from the norm.
-sw

actually in fairness I'm not getting UTRd really?

i got pushed to E-2 yesterday and now nka's rather clearing of me + I'm getting people to sheep me on my solve

Eh. ProfMaf and MV are the only two that seem to think scum you is an option since my towncase.

Also do we know that notmaf hammers in ElLo? Or are we just assuming?

He doesn't gamethrow, but he isn't cautious. Basically, if he thinks there's a chance a wagon is on scum he'll hammer it. N_M town being there in XLO isn't an autoloss though.

[Bingle]

Spoiler: @TSwizzle Slot (Game State, A Primer)

fine im doing PBPA

Big Elephant is sounding increasingly scummy, I think the TR on MiniVirgo is a deep pocket, and they're just generally agreeing with stuff and throwing out forced reads instead of solving.

I think mech talk is a bad way to TR people fwiw

VOTE: Big Elephant

random SR on me for TRing JV for being more active and solvy and framing it as a "pocket" and SR for making "reads" LOL
second line is treading IIoA

ftr im scumreading johnny's shitpush in their opening so it'd make my day if N_M were to vote there
-shelly

I think you're the one that's shitpushing here. In my opinion, overexplanation is a scumtell and pointing that out is furthering the game.

Does anyone else see what I'm seeing here?

overexplanation it totally a personality tell and furthering the game by making something out of a NAI post is bad

N_M's bold style is pretty town!AI. Scum usually don't go against the grain like that imo.

N_M is playing like a jester, like they usually do. I don't really get why that's a good reason to TR people.

Feels like you're randomly throwing out reads like candies here. Your trajectories to get to a TR are cheap.

shutting down my TR to shade N_M subtly
im also foreign to N_M meta and making reads is again, not scummy

Something about Elephant's reads just ping me the wrong way, I guess the best way to describe it is that it seems pocket.

+1 to this

MWNN's probably town

no reasoning, TRing those who make similar reads to them = lazy reads

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

hot take: I have a mild SR on MiniVirgo. Trying to defend A50 sounds a bit like a buddy attempt imo.

i think a lot of scum are inactive

why are MWNN/A50 town???
why is the defense buddying not everything that TRs people = pocketing
why would you assume scum are active, this is prob TMI

at least 1 inactive is prob!scum, big elephant and MiniVirgo contain scum

this game is nearly solved

why does big elephant (me) and MV contain scum

MiniVirgo/Big Elephant contains scum, idk why people call BE "low charisma wagon" that slot is just obtuse and scummy

Derp is rather town imo, tone has been good, A50's playing to their town meta

get Elephant today this will solve the game

shitpushing without explaining the SR on my slot AT ALL and sheeping JV
why is derp town???? and why is the tone good

Nandor is far from lock-town. ProfessorMafia is also likely Town. Can anyone actually explain the SR on them thank

- JV

how can you look at prof maf's ISO and not smell the stench?

I wanted to hear back from Prof Maf first but here's more or less where I'm at
his big elephant push is mostly done in bad faith to look active

the initial read and the vote there isn't bad, but since then he has not shown any genuine read progression, continued to shitpush big elephant with crap logic piled on top of crap logic

N_M's bold style is pretty town!AI. Scum usually don't go against the grain like that imo.

N_M is playing like a jester, like they usually do. I don't really get why that's a good reason to TR people.

Feels like you're randomly throwing out reads like candies here. Your trajectories to get to a TR are cheapl

.

Something about Elephant's reads just ping me the wrong way, I guess the best way to describe it is that it seems pocket.

+1 to this

MWNN's probably town

Hectic alt detected.

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

MiniVirgo/Big Elephant contains scum, idk why people call BE "low charisma wagon" that slot is just obtuse and scummy

Derp is rather town imo, tone has been good, A50's playing to their town meta

get Elephant today this will solve the game

Accuses BE's trajectories to TR people cheap, but is perfectly fine with throwing out TRs for no good reason

big elephant is hardcore omgussing. MWNN/A50 are probably both town

hot take: I have a mild SR on MiniVirgo. Trying to defend A50 sounds a bit like a buddy attempt imo.

i think a lot of scum are inactive

at least 1 inactive is prob!scum, big elephant and MiniVirgo contain scum

this game is nearly solved

calls miniVirgo scum, who is the most vocal voice in pushing BE, WHILE pushing BE himself at the same time
and then throws out the absolute banger "a lot of scum are inactive", backtracks with "at least 1 inactive scum, BE/MiniVergo contains scum"

this is a red flag, there's way many holes in his logic here, I don't see any real conviction in his read
which seems to me this is Prof Maf content with fanning the flames from the side rather than pushing his SR in good faith

teal deers:

Shelly: Prof maf had a bad push on shelly!slot. Metashade on N_M TR. ProfMaf had lazy/unsupported reads.

yessir: Prof maf push on BE is for show. Cognitive dissonance in SR-ing both elephants and mV. Cheap TR's while pushing someone for cheap TR's.

Of these, yes is actually providing a scum motivation for some of the things done, but neither of them are actually solid cases on ProfMaf.

Actually looking at the quotes shared though, paints a different picture. ProfMaf cast a vote on page 4 with pretty solid reason (given the stage of the game) on shelly. Their fluff to non fluff ratio is good, the meta knowledge of N_M is something anyone who has been in a thread with N_M for more than two sentences can share with you, the point about mechspeak being NAI is just basic mafia, and the rest of the BE case is just as hypocritical as yes is accusing Prof of being.

Further: 107, 108, 200, 373, 452 all have decent reasoning, even if I don't agree with it.

Yes's contention that there's a cognitive dissonance to thinking there is one scum in two slots that are SR-ing each other is frankly baffling. The idea that Prof is trying to look active is also pretty out there: Prof has been pretty obviously lurker-y. Their rate of content is probably the strongest contention against them, tbh. The cherry picking of 373 and 374 to show that Prof doesn't have reasons to townread is pretty :eyebrows: because 374 doesn't contain any townreads and 373 only has two, one of which he'd previously given a reason for. (In post 200)

NKA makes me fairly confident in Shelly town for today.

Yes lived firmly in shelly’s pocket, yesterday, and wasn’t particularly towny otherwise. Shelly has more to lose than to gain by killing off her strongest defense.

Elbirn is probtown, im sure someone is better at reading him than I so

I would put mini, nandor, shelly, and maybe mccree in obvtown tier

Had a50 in locktown before but unsure now

Quote for visibility.

But, looking at those names, Shelly was the one in danger and the one who yes alone was defending. Yes was sheeping/agreeing with Shelly about profmaf but neither of them were having any luck getting that wagon off the ground so it’s not like yes was threatening to anyone specifically. I don’t see any power role indications from yes, and yes was part of the pivot onto derp, but still stayed off wagon which is not a good look in light of the flip. I was also pretty clearly scumreading him at EoD.

This leads me to yes being killed for town blocking well, and of his townblock Shelly is the one who needs his support the most.

To a lesser extent, it also suggests either profmaf scum or a scumteam who is happy with the state of the thread.

I'm most interested in poking Johnny, A50 and ProfMaf atm. I'd support a PL on N_M, I suppose, because he's not being !usefulN_M but don't have confidence that's scum.

I have varying degrees of townreads on you, shelly, El, Nando. I feel like I should have a read on MV but don't. I want to hear frog noises from Froppy because she hasn't had a chance to do anything AI at all aorn.

I'm not really interested in pushing hard towards a yeet at the moment though, because I feel like there is enough content that hasn't been discussed yet that I want to see how things shake out for the moment.

[Bingle]

VOTE: ProfMaf

I think the disappearing act and subsequent return when they've dropped out of the line of fire seems particularly susp, FWIW.

[Bingle]

In post 838, Bingle wrote:
NKA makes me fairly confident in Shelly town for today.

In post 841, Bingle wrote:
Yes lived firmly in shelly’s pocket, yesterday, and wasn’t particularly towny otherwise. Shelly has more to lose than to gain by killing off her strongest defense.

In post 842, Bingle wrote:
In post 757, yessiree wrote:
Elbirn is probtown, im sure someone is better at reading him than I so

I would put mini, nandor, shelly, and maybe mccree in obvtown tier

Had a50 in locktown before but unsure now


Quote for visibility.

Not bothering to fix the formatting, but these three are why I think Shelly is town. The wall portion of that primer is mostly me responding to yes and Shelly's cases on ProfMaf from yesterday. The others are a collection of short posts.

I bothered to point out shelly town because she seemed to be the consensus scumread yesterday on my replace in and I disagreed with it then and wanted to see what happened when I dropped a big rock in the pool. The ripples have been coming back to the same few names as scum, all of which roughly align with my own stated "I want to poke these people reads" for the post part.

[Bingle]

Also Bingle, new pfpc be nice

-Noraabear

It's my old one, actually. I lost a SUPP bet and was forced into the last one for three months and finally remembered I was let free at the beginning of October a few days ago.

[Bingle]

the teal deer on shelly town is that it very much looks like yes kill was designed to open up an elim on shelly/shelly had absolutely no reason to kill off the only slot that wasn't highly susp of her yesterday.

MWNN has had a very towny tone and presence. If he's scum he's pocketed me thoroughly, and I don't think that's the case as I'm usually very pocket resistant. I'm not outright townreading monkey, which is concerning, but there have been a couple of posts that are far more likely to be monkey town than monkey scum. I actually think N_M has a significant chance of being scum here, and there was more pushback than expected when I framed that as a policy decision. He's definitely playing refuge in audacity if scum, but that's N_M scum's playbook from page one through to the end.

MV/BE(Shelly)/Johnny have had strong and repeated interactions for basically the whole game, which makes me think at most one scum in that pile, possibly 0.

[Bingle]

Tayl0r is Tayl0r though

please dont slander me

- Tay Lord

Fun fact: I was listening to the speak now world tour album when I saw that you replaced in. I think that means legally that you have to tell me if you're scum.

[Bingle]

votes

JohnnyFarrar [1]:

ManWithNoName Froppy shellyc Nandor the Relentless,

Swizzle Pop[4]:

Almost50

Almost50 [1]:

JohnnyFarrar

Not_Mafia [1]:

MiniVirgo

MiniVirgo [1]:

Professor Mafia,

Professor Mafia [1]:

Bingle

shellyc [0]:

Nandor the Relentless [0]:

yessiree [0]:

ManWithNoName [0]:

Bingle [0]:

Froppy [0]:

Not Voting [5]:

, Not_Mafia, Swizzle Pop[/votes]

Interesting swing from swizzle to Johnny in ~24 hours. I like the new wagon comp better, tbh.

[Bingle]

VOTE: ProfMaf

I think the disappearing act and subsequent return when they've dropped out of the line of fire seems particularly susp, FWIW.

it seemed like the conclusion from the gamestate primer was that shelly you and Pm were all town. what made you change your mind on PM? mostly just the actvity levels?

can someone explain why johnny is scum to me?

-tlay door

The anticase on ProfMaf was not a towncase, just a statement of why shelly's and yes's cases were bad. I don't think that it was particularly telling on his alignment either way given that the push from yes was explicitly in good faith at this point. Mostly, I think that profmaf hasn't done enough to be read, and I'm not happy with rushing through the day to let that go. The hammer yesterday was premature, and the way things are going it looks like we're on track for another one.

I think MWNN and shelly are reliable townreads at this point, and I'm being universally townread (partially for mechspeak which is a bullshit reason to read me one way or another). Nandor seems to be a popular townread, and I'm kind of interested in that because I think he's probably well within his scumrange if I'm at all right on my personality read there. Your slot, N_M's slot, Froppy's Slot all haven't done enough to have a solid read on them atm, and I'm very interested in your push at Froppy. Anyone who thinks A50 is lock anything right now has some pretty nifty drugs. The idea that we're at PoE status already is confusing at best to me.

[Bingle]

Mini can't really move right now, she'll post when she can

sorry to hear that mini!

feelslikeA50isalazyjohnnydeflect
johnny hasn't talked about A50 at all and here they are pushing there.

As a consolidation vote, I am either voting Johnny or N_M today. My preference is the latter but the former doesn't pain me to do either.

VOTE: Johnny

I'll selfvote if this is green tbh
nothing but fluff and no engagement with the current gamestate at least taylor is tryharding

teal deer on Johnny scum is the above, weirdness in the shelly interactions, and a disproportionate response to pressure. Which did all happen, I'm just less convinced than some that it makes him lockscum.

[Bingle]

I don't know if I would be that quick to give shelly a townpass. it ends up kicking ass if ur wrong. Last game I was in with her, she fooled me big time.

-Noraabear

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. We're at a fairly low content D2, so none of my reads are set in stone. I'm more than willing to give her the opportunity to work without a sword of damocles for the moment though, and when removed from pressure her first instinct was to get all solvey, which is a good sign, I think.

[Bingle]

MWNN has consistently had strong correlations with my thought processes, even when I haven't shared those thought processes. He feels relaxed and hasn't been afraid to sit back and shit post, but isn't using that as an excuse not to move forward with the game state. Mostly though, it just looks like he really doesn't give a shit about how he looks when he posts.

Nandor is aggressive and loud. He definitely looks solvey, but my take on him is that he's the kind of player who is going to take charge regardless of alignment. Past that, I'm not actually sure why he's being townread to the extent he is.

[Bingle]

im a bit concerned that i havent seen A50 but it is the weekend and we've only been in the game for 24 hours.

This is roughly where I'm at with him, btw. When he's here, he gives off familiar townmonkey pings, but he's been light on presence all game and I'm not sure what that means from him.

Particularly this feels like a town monkey moment, but he never followed up on my response. He did set up the N_M lolhammer, which DOES fit cheekyscum him (particularly if N_M is also scum), but he's kinda just... absent.

[Bingle]

Basically, we are doing shit and no one agrees on reads.

-Noraabear

I mean... No one thinks I'm scum. Pretty sure MWNN is also universal.

But yeah, there's this pervasive attitude of GAME IS SOLVED and I have no idea where it came from.

[Bingle]

Eh. It's not the worst option, but I'll admit more than a little of that push was to see who followed suit.

[Bingle]

Please keep knowing yourself to the AP account, you dirty old monkey.

[Bingle]

really? you think its townie to be pointing out who isnt the cop?

I think that conclusion (that I wasn't the cop) is NAI. I think town is more likely than scum to throw the knowledge into the open air in a vacuum, because scum is more likely to hold it to the chest and town is going to assume scum noticed it too (It's pretty blatant if you don't think about why I might have done it in particular).

I also think that A50 particularly breaks that mold, knows me fairly well, and might well think I am the cop and is actively trying to get me to be a less likely nightkill.

[Bingle]

I'm still "Almost 50" in my home planet.

[Bingle]

And speaking of knowing you well; I am inclined to believe this is your way to try and bait the NK unto yourself too. Good try.

I wonder if anyone even bothers to try to read into our 8D Chess back and forths anymore.

[Bingle]

Intent on Johnny.

Assuming Not_Mafia will lolhammer this.

PL on N_M will not move the game forward, Shelly isn't taking off.

Do you think that Froppy, you and TSwizzleBear slots have all put forward enough to be read at this point?

What is your take on people's reads on you? Are they in good faith?

What are your townreads?

[Bingle]

prodge

I've been rather busy, but I'll be there tomorrow to talk things through

I think it's icky that he dislike townreads so hard. Other than that this feels like you wanna lim a lurker who happens to think you're scum? Like 6/10 of his posts are shading you in some way. What am I missing?

Checking in.

Shelly is still omgussing.

She points out that I am shading and discrediting, but not the why.

swizzle pops entrance is rather obviously town

imo, big elephant still scum, I'm on board with the scum!MV bits, they seem to constantly post but they arent really providing a lot of useful content and much of what they're saying is either common sense like policying N_M and also synthesizing shellyc's thoughts on johnny/elbirn.

VOTE: MiniVirgo

Intent on Johnny.

Assuming Not_Mafia will lolhammer this.

PL on N_M will not move the game forward, Shelly isn't taking off.

Literally every ProfMaf post this phase.

[Bingle]

I mean... My vote on ProfMaf seems to speak for itself there.

It's also interesting to me that there are so many people with them in their solves and so little actual support for their wagon today.

[Bingle]

I'll be honest, I'm putting off the harder choices. If ProfMaf flips green, that's at least evidence that the solves themselves are wrong and we need to seriously reevaluate.

[Bingle]

I don't ride the bus, and I'm not going to start just to make you some art.

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

I'm always the hammer

[Bingle]

MWNN has obviously been the busdriver since early D1.

[Bingle]

Has this set up really never been played before?

I just joined because I mistakenly thought that all the players were bus drivers. But, no, just has to be one driver with a bunch of backups, so, not nearly as chaotic as I had hoped. Stupid reading gets in my way once again.

[Bingle]

Right. Nandor. Nandor was the one that brought up that post, and is thus probably town because scum Nandor would already have the suspicion of who was bus driver and would likely have shared that suspicion in the scumthread, further incentivizing a cop over BD claim.

[Bingle]

Hello students, I'm your Professor of Mafia.

Step 1: Random Voting Stage: VOTE: Sando

In my opinion, not much to be gained from any of this. All the voting mod nonsense is anti-town.

I haven't ever played this setup (it's a mutantdevle one though so probably has some deeper gimmick)
+1 to hypoclaiming though.

Hectic alt detected.

It probably is. Can we get some overall reads from you, Hectic?

Has this set up really never been played before?

I just joined because I mistakenly thought that all the players were bus drivers. But, no, just has to be one driver with a bunch of backups, so, not nearly as chaotic as I had hoped. Stupid reading gets in my way once again.

When did you realize this?

When did you realize this?

Before that post, but after I /inned...

Confirmation of Nandor's awareness, btw.

[Bingle]

Interesting ISO. I'll have to come back to it with context. MV is mostly correct about setup information, and if

anyone cares the setup has been run before

, at least once.

This was me, crumbing my awareness of MWNN's slip, btw.

Awareness of the slip didn't correlate to being town (it's very valid to leave the bus driver alive in this setup), but ProfMaf choosing BD over cop implies either that he thought he'd win the 1v1 or he wanted the info, both of which don't make sense if Nandor or I are scum.

[Bingle]

Swizzle is new Elbirn. I don't think we're quite to the "GAME IS SOLVED" portion of the evening, but we're pretty far ahead with a mafia elim here and the number of solid town reads ITT.

[Bingle]

Should go without saying, but you're still in "Try to swap scum with the nightkill mode." You can self target, should not preclaim your targets, and shouldn't worry about the cop at all.

[Bingle]

Ok I would understand choosing to lim PM after the cc. But saying that before the cc is really fucking strange and A50 defo has a point there.

Not really. It's NAI.

Basically, if N_M is scum, he's scum with Prof. He knows that a cc is forthcoming, and also knows that being too sure is going to make him look strange to be absolutely sure before that cc happens. The surety isn't surprising either, he's been on Prof/Johnny all day.

Gun to my head, I don't think this is a N_M bus.

[Bingle]

K, so this is how it would work:



Cop can be changed with a claimed town bus driver or just any random person for the same result.


So the scum team can always cancel out the town bus driver's protection. The bus driver can then counter that by either coincidently choosing the same targets as the mafia to cancel out the swapping altogether or just not try to protect them at all and just let the mafia kill the person they are swapping with the cop.

[Bingle]

Generally, the reason to counterclaim early as scum is because you’re likely to go down soon anyway. MWNN doesn’t fit that criteria.

[Bingle]

I am confused by this.

Basically, you’re aiming for one scum and either whoever scum is driving with their nightkill or the nightkill, depending on whether scum actually drives their nightkill.

You have a functional 1/10 to hit with your bus drive at all, and it’s not impacted by targeting towny or scummy presences.

One of the people you drive should be a scumread, and the other should be literally anyone.

[Bingle]

so now youre gonna have to put up with really dumb signatures

Might I suggest song lyrics?

[Bingle]

I considered trying to steal the hammer, but that sounds like effort.

[Bingle]

Everyone should pm the mod that we want a fast night btw. Can’t remember who the mod is or if they allow for that, but fuck waiting two days to find out I died.

[Bingle]

I tried to steal the hammer but messed up with my login from my main.

Darn.

It would behoove you not to incur my eternal wrath

Can confirm. N_Ms eternal wrath lasts at least three days and is mildly inconvenient.

[Bingle]

Everyone should pm the mod that we want a fast night btw. Can’t remember who the mod is or if they allow for that, but fuck waiting two days to find out I died.

Lmao you don't know who the mod is? Alrighty, I'll pm the mod for fast night.

-Noraabear

Presumably I have a pm conversation with them, but I only ever really know the mods name if they’ve fucked up or we have a long term relationship. I replaced into this because I saw an open that needed a bunch of replacements with a decent player list.

[Bingle]

Ah. Piisirrational.

[Bingle]

Elbirn and yes are also both players I enjoy that I haven’t played with in hella fortnights, but yeah, I probably wouldn’t be here for want of a monkey.

Really the only name who sucks in this list is that Bingle guy. Fuck him.

[Bingle]

I only ever really know the mods name if they’ve fucked up or we have a long term relationship.

I deny any such relationship with Bingle. We may or may not have dated once or twice but it never developed and we never took it that far.

DAMN! There goes my friendfic.

He's lying to you. It's just easier to explain that way than to tell everyone that I don't mind if he seeks his thrills elsewhere so long as he remains emotionally faithful to me.

Or maybe he's lying and he's fucked up modding a game before. All I know is that I'm pretty sure I've never forgotten when A50 was the mod in one of my games.

[Bingle]

[Bingle]

(Joking aside, shelly was MVP this game. All I did was OBV!TOWN to try and eat a NK)

Pffft. I was MVP. Even the mod thought so and killed me to give scum a fighting chance.

Also, I hard carried shelly by making sure she didn't get limmed.

(Seriously, though, well done shelly. Your reads were solid AF.)

[Bingle]

Froppy tell me my tells!

The big one is the text color in your role PM.

[Bingle]

You know me, always helping people out.

[Bingle]

Y'all are like hounds. Couldn't make one misstep

they yeeted poor derp

Should have accidentally told everyone you were a backup bus driver.

I mean... that slip was directly responsible for 2/3 of my lock town reads, so... apparently not bad advice.