Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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it is a little weird ig how hut preflip paired peng with SS and then after peng flipped never talked about SS again and focused on andante insteadIn post 1539, hutmeil wrote:
Good question. If I were to guess, Peng, Dragon and SS. I'm giving andante the benefit of the doubt since she's not a lurker d1.In post 1538, fireisredsir wrote:
ok nice, there's an original unprompted thoughtIn post 1537, hutmeil wrote:Im taking note of the current 3 votes as of this writing on Mala though. Is that maf trying to save their mafmate in Peng? Maybe.
do you have any thoughts on who that could be, if that were the case?-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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actually the vote doesn't really make a ton of sense for him to make as scum, which was why i thought it was mala. but it could be possible that the reason it doesn't make sense is that he felt like hut was going down eventually and he needed to get on the wagon??
like i don't really get why he wouldn't vote mala there if the wagons are t/t either-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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he wasn't under pressure at all, the sus came from him making that vote, bc it was a weird vote to make
why would scum go out of their way to go counter to their previous progressions and make a weird vote that will prob draw attention when they didn't really have attention beforehand? i thought it was to save a partner. but it could have been bc he thought he would get towncred for the vote eventually once hut went down-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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100% lol, i had that thought earlier tooIn post 2047, Datisi wrote:i'm rereading the game around that part and i think vp baltar is malding in the dead thread that we're not voting andante-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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vp hadn't really screamed about it or said that hut was town, he just had 669 mostly. he started more heavily criticizing the wagon for being easy right after penguin voted. and i think he correctly called that momentum was shifting thereIn post 2050, Datisi wrote:
maybe he thought it wouldn't draw attention because he would be able to "i am penguin and i like wagons" his way out of it?In post 2048, fireisredsir wrote:he wasn't under pressure at all, the sus came from him making that vote, bc it was a weird vote to make
why would scum go out of their way to go counter to their previous progressions and make a weird vote that will prob draw attention when they didn't really have attention beforehand? i thought it was to save a partner. but it could have been bc he thought he would get towncred for the vote eventually once hut went down
like, the hut wagon at that point is georgebailey (who is basically a non-presence) and you, and baltar has been thoroughly screaming about hut being town and/or easy wagon. and baltar had recently said that he'd be fine voting penguin. like, the vote on hutmeil feels all kinds of unnecessary if scum!hut because it's decently unlikely he actually tips over on d1 i think?
though i guess these do somewhat apply to the town!hutmeil world too so like lmao idk anymore
and yea thats my point, like i can't see why penguin would do it if hut was town. and it doesn't really make 100% sense to me why he would do it if hut was scum, but at least that adds another factor to the equation that could influence him to act in a way that was out of the ordinary-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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this post is gonna annoy datisi but i had a brief flash of a thought that there is a possible world where datisi could do his whole thing about making people commit to giving reads on either hut or peng
and it's the world where he's scum with both of them and sets it up to look like S/T wagons and just rides it out to the end on the towncred he gets from doing it, never needing to worry about the "why wasn't he nk'd" fear bc he can just nk masons instead...
my original hut/dats conspiracy theory... it calls to me...
haha jk
unless...?-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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yea, there were 3 on mala, 2 on hut, 2 on vulture (both hut and penguin were there), 2 on me, i believe, as of 1079. momentum was kinda building on both me and hut. if all 4 of those are town it just feels kind of weird to me for penguin to switch to hut there after not posting for 36 hours and not really being under pressure, when he has prior trajectory onto me and no trajectory on hut
like ok maybe it makes some sense if im partners with peng but consider fmpov for a moment, i genuinely do not understand why he would do that and i want another perspective if you have thoughts on it-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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idk if it makes hut scum but it is a weird action to take and i don't understand it, and i think penguin thinking he wants to get on board the bus before the wagon goes too far is a possible explanation
mala being a partner is a better explanation (and tbh so is me being a partner) but neither of those are right, so-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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at the time i posted that i did, mostly bc i felt like you made sense as a partner to george/enchant and i also thought that they were scumIn post 2072, Andante wrote:you think you're wrongly TRing me? why?
now im not as sure on that and am somewhat compelled by the possibility of ss+hut
kinda think its one of those two pairings but i also kinda think i should try not to get too caught up in looking for pairings bc that backfired yesterday-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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? i was talking about what you may have been thinking if you were scum. that wouldn't show up in the thread bc duhIn post 2079, Andante wrote:
at what freaking point in this game was I ever concerned about GAMMA SRing me?? please quote it. quote the post that told you I was concerned about a Gamma SR on me.In post 2002, fireisredsir wrote:the only exception to that is andante, bc i think andante is unpredictable in what she latches onto in people's perceptions of her, and may have had a distorted view of how strongly gamma scumread her.
i don't even really think it's likely i was just reasoning through SS's point about the nk. which i ended up disagreeing with-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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no? you can read my posts and see how my thoughts changed. nothing has really changed about my read on you since you got here, that happened earlierIn post 2080, Andante wrote:and now that I'm here and talking you think I'm town again? so when I'm not here, we can throw sus my way, join SS in trying to make a wagon on me. but when I am here it's "oh well at the time I thought that.. now I don't!!"
Like, that post was literally from today.-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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kinda had been assuming she was town ever since the penguin flip and she did her wagon analysis bc i thought both of those pointed strongly to her being town. i don't feel as strongly about it as i did before but i still think she's probably town? i don't really see why she takes the approach to d1 that she does if she's scum with penguin. i don't really think she kills vp. i think that the way she's looking at the game since then is p towny and doesn't really feel like she has a long term plan (slightly hesitant on this point bc i can see one possibility but it seems unlikely), it feels more like the way she sees things is naturally evolving due to new info and new thoughtsIn post 2089, Datisi wrote:fire, what are your thoughts on aristeia?
i don't really fully agree with your reasoning about her and enchant, since altho i agree the emotion seems real, i think she could easily be frustrated with enchant's play as a general trend. it doesn't really seem like the frustration is very related to either enchant or ari's alignment
but anyway i think she's probably town-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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ive thought about it some more and im going back to thinking it isn't hut
don't really think we should lim in [std, implo, ari, dats, hut] and if im right on that and everyone agrees then the poe of [andante, ss, enchant, me] wins the game. but they probably don't agree and i might not be right, so hey, idk
i have a kinda hard time seeing ss+andante as a team so i kind of want enchant. i really think implo should reassess his TRs on enchant and andante if not now then after i die bc im p sure he's wrong on one of them or maybe both
i also think that i probably have to die at some point for the game to be solvable just due to the positions ive been in so far which is unfort but thats okay, i understand. i think atp that me living to elo would be an actively bad idea for the likelihood of winning the game. i don't think there's really anything that i could do that would prove my towniness here, and of the 5 people i think are town, at least 3 of them want me dead and i don't think that's ever fully going away-
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ive given reasons. my current most compelling reason to me is poe. im also not very interested in saving ass, ive already accepted that i prob have to die hereIn post 2099, Enchant wrote:Fire is maf, cuz blatantly trying to save ass, not elim maf.
While others gived more reasonable... Reasons to even suspect me, it's simple "Bah Enchant maf".-
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no, i just thought it was funny that you were criticizing a read progression for changing too muchIn post 2100, Andante wrote:
so every 12 hours your read on me just flips? it just depends on if I'm here/not here?In post 2097, fireisredsir wrote:i know that this is a very foreign concept to you, but occasionally people think one thing at one point and then later their mind changes and they think a different thing
it went more like...
1) mala flips, oops i was wrong. it probably is still georgechant? but i was townreading everyone else. so one of those is wrong. which one? i guess the NKs point to andante, and that fits pretty well with both peng and georgechant. there's also SS. hmm
2) oh, SS is pushing andante? hmm. either we're both on the right track, or he set things up with the NKs to frame andante. he's probably not scum with andante because of this and because of the movement together eod1
3) read some SS scumgames to see if I had the wrong ideas of what he would do as scum. realize that my townread on him for my understanding of his meta was probably bad
4) implosion thinks enchant is town. is he right? maybe i need to look deeper into my townreads since nothing really feels right. could it be hut? kind of leaning towards SS+hut, some of it feels like it fits
5) andante is here. her thoughts don't really make much sense but i should remember that isn't a scumtell for her. still leaning SS+hut probably but her posting here isn't very towny
6) ok, nvm, i don't think it's hut. could it be ari? eh, nah, i don't think so. back to the group of [andante, ss, enchant]. still don't think ss+andante pairing makes sense. so let's lim enchant since either way they're scum. also, looking back now, andante's defense of enchant could easily be partnered-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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@s_sIn post 2110, fireisredsir wrote:what do you think of enchant?-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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ari why is the 3/4 thing a strong enough reason to rule out georgechant as an andante partner? i don't really think it should be, when andante voted hut there were 3 hut 3 pengu 3 me. george and penguin were on hut, datisi was on penguin. i just don't really think it's out of the realm of possibility that she would choose to join on hut there even if both scum are already there. this is the same andante who later tried to start a last minute wagon on mala
also, with the datisi pairing idea, it also just seems kind of weird for her to vote the easiest counterwagon to try to push it above penguin if her partner is datisi who is bussing at that time? like if she doesn't want to bus, sure ok, but why not vote off main wagons so it doesn't look like she's trying to save her partner if the plan is that datisi is gonna bus penguin while analyzing who took what stance on penguin vs hut?? unless it was like a very planned ahead thing to get bussed by datisi later but also like datisi isn't doing that, so... idk, i think it makes just as much sense there for the partner to just be george and they decided to go all in, either bc they weren't really planning ahead that much (very possible) or bc they knew that people later will look back and go "oh, no way all 3 scum piled on here!" like they always do-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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really do not like this question bcIn post 2207, Something_Smart wrote:Datisi, how would you rate Ari's ability to read me compared to your own?
1) you know the answer already. you're just trying to lead datisi towards the idea that ari's townread on you is worth more than his own read. proposing that idea on its own isn't shady, but doing this weird indirect innocent-sounding-but-very-leading question thing is, imo
2) you are aware of the meta that ari will use to read you and are capable of adjusting your play around that. you clearly indicated here that you know what your town and scumgames look like, and that you are carefully thinking about how you play in relation to your own meta-
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meh idk, maybe it doesn't. i didn't like it when i first saw it bc it felt somehow insidious, like you wanted to make him think a certain thing but not be direct about it. but your responses are fine and tbh i think i get that kind of feeling about a lot of things that don't actually come from scum so it isn't really a reliable feeling anywayIn post 2216, Something_Smart wrote:Also, I don't see how your objections relate to my alignment. Why am I more likely to do an innocent-sounding-but-very-leading thing as scum? You think I didn't know it was (potentially) leading, or I thought Datisi wouldn't notice?-
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what makes you think those are most likely to be partnered with me?In post 2234, Andante wrote:idk my struggle here is I'm stuck on a few reads so it's like, yeah fire maf, but then the partner? most likely in hut/Dragons, but idk which-
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also what, i dont think i thatIn post 2288, Andante wrote:fire hard claimed not mason earlier with mala-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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In post 2316, fireisredsir wrote:
also what, i dont think i did thatIn post 2288, Andante wrote:fire hard claimed not mason earlier with mala-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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idk it doesn't really feel like a direction she would choose to go here as maf. maybe she's just good at replicating her own town play but this feels like times when in invictus she would like get bored of the game not going anywhere and so she would out info or theories about info just to see what would happen or to have something to talk aboutIn post 2318, Aristeia wrote:In post 2315, fireisredsir wrote:hmm part of me kinda thinks that if andante really did think masons were datisi/SS and thought datisi was mason for a while now then idk if she kills vp/gamma
the mafia also have to think about who is mason - I'm not sure whether she actually thought Dats/SS are the masons but I don't think it's relevant to her alignment.
maybe im wrong tho idk. but i don't think SS is as clearly town as you do so im worried about that possibility-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
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im slightly townreading andante's more recent posting, maybe she was just right and i do townread her more when she's here. most of it doesn't really make sense but it feels like she has thoughts that i have no idea where they came from but they make sense to her. and there's something about that almost indignant attitude of "how can you all not see this" that just kinda rings true to me
idk i don't feel like i have anything productive to say rn but im around if anyone wants to talk
implo who do you think is scum if im town? im still pretty much on enchant + one of andante/SS (maybe leaning SS now?) but you townread two of those-
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he has a very strong scumgame but i think there's specific actions taken here that don't make sense from him as scumIn post 2357, implosion wrote:Alas. Do you think the strength with which you can call Datisi town is commensurate with the strength of his scumgame?
one example that i don't think has been brought up is that if he had an inkling that gamma was mason i don't think he pushes her d2 the way he did? and if he doesn't have an inkling that gamma is mason then i don't think he nk's her
like the scum benefit to pushing someone you think is mason is obvious, you can see who is willing to defend them. but that seems to me like the kind of thing that datisi wouldn't really want to dirty his hands with here esp since if he's scum, he's in a decent spot to endgame-
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im only talking about gamma here as that's the only known mason
and yea i don't think he pushes someone that he suspects to be a mason as either alignment, as town bc duh, and as maf bc he wants to look town and cares about how people will see his actions when they look back later. just doesn't seem like his playstyle to me-
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i think it's fair to say that im kinda complacent and a lot of that is bc i genuinely believe based on my current view of the game that me getting flipped here is better for town win% than any other town getting flipped with the possible exception of enchant if enchant is town
maybe thats dumb and throwing idk, if so my bad, but its my read on things
and im not like super strongly confident in who i think is maf or really have anything that i could say about it that would convince anyone so im just kinda like... here
id rather flip scum ofc and if people i trust agree with me on who is scum then im happy going there but if not it's not the end of the world-
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have a better chance of solving the game without having to worry about me being scumIn post 2452, Aristeia wrote:ok what do we do after we flip you and you flip town again?
i still think that andante+enchant+ss lims wins the game-
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ive thought that exactly one of you or him is scum for a while now and ive gone back and forth on which one. rn im leaning him and yes that probably is influenced by the fact that you are here and activeIn post 2453, Andante wrote:hey fire, what's your read on Something_Smart?-
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i was really into it d2 when i thought i had solved the whole game but then it turns out i didn't have it quite right and that made me feel a bit less into itIn post 2419, Aristeia wrote:
yea he is really like not into this game at allIn post 2415, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean this is gonna sound pretty weird but just reading energy i feel like andante has a lot of WIM that i don't think scum has
fireisredsir posts leave me with something to be desired, i remember a more analytical fireisredsir in other games and it just seems to be lacking that spark, but it's possible i'm just missing something
it's also just a bit of a weird game to me bc my strongest opinions are about who is town and i feel like ive argued those cases enough and those people aren't really being considered as scum rn so that's cool
and so we're just left with a poe that i think and hope is winning and im in it which is p understandable given the way things have happened so far. ive tried sorting through which of those i think are most likely scum and ive gone back and forth to the point where im not really that confident that what i currently feel is most likely to be correct. but i do think that it probably has to be enchant-
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im pretty sure he's notIn post 2472, Aristeia wrote:I think he's a mason because he's the only person on the mala wagon that makes sense as a mason-
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what is the conclusion of this thoughtIn post 2479, Datisi wrote:okay i had a thought earlier
so the vc is at 2125, with fire wagon decently leading. then ari pops in and there's a page and a half of "actually this fire wagon is Bad, andante is like obviously scum, and also datisi is the most likely partner to scum!andante and etc etc"
and then fire pops in in 2181 like "let me drop a paragraph of analysis on why andante/datisi does not make any sense as a pair", like what. sure, he offered an alternative of enchant/andante, but he kept prioritizing enchant in that pair, AND just giving this analysis does run the risk of ari agreeing with the points against datisi/andante but not buying into other ones-
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fireisredsir Goodfellas/Rising Star
- Goodfellas/Rising Star
- Goodfellas/Rising Star
- Posts: 9249
- Joined: January 25, 2022
i thought you must have a plan bc the reasoning seemed clearly flawed to me >_>In post 2481, Aristeia wrote:
lol whatIn post 2480, fireisredsir wrote:ok wait are you telling me 1972 was real
this whole time i thought it was faked to try to lead mafia to killing on the wagon and narrow our poe for us