Open 857 | Frienemies | Postgame

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:59 am

it is also p different from any town enchant that ive seen, tbf, but yea that is true

enchant town feels weird to me bc then idk who it would be? ss+andante doesn't feel right. maybe i was right on hut originally??

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:02 am

In post 1539, hutmeil wrote:
In post 1538, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1537, hutmeil wrote:Im taking note of the current 3 votes as of this writing on Mala though. Is that maf trying to save their mafmate in Peng? Maybe.
ok nice, there's an original unprompted thought

do you have any thoughts on who that could be, if that were the case?
Good question. If I were to guess, Peng, Dragon and SS. I'm giving andante the benefit of the doubt since she's not a lurker d1.

it is a little weird ig how hut preflip paired peng with SS and then after peng flipped never talked about SS again and focused on andante instead

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:05 am

lease

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:06 am

none of this feels quite right idk maybe im making a wrong assumption somewhere

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:12 am

yea ik but ive considered all options atp and none of them make perfect sense. so ig it's a matter of deciding which one makes the least not-sense

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:16 am

actually the vote doesn't really make a ton of sense for him to make as scum, which was why i thought it was mala. but it could be possible that the reason it doesn't make sense is that he felt like hut was going down eventually and he needed to get on the wagon??

like i don't really get why he wouldn't vote mala there if the wagons are t/t either

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:18 am

he wasn't under pressure at all, the sus came from him making that vote, bc it was a weird vote to make

why would scum go out of their way to go counter to their previous progressions and make a weird vote that will prob draw attention when they didn't really have attention beforehand? i thought it was to save a partner. but it could have been bc he thought he would get towncred for the vote eventually once hut went down

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:19 am

In post 2047, Datisi wrote:i'm rereading the game around that part and i think vp baltar is malding in the dead thread that we're not voting andante

100% lol, i had that thought earlier too

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:31 am

In post 2050, Datisi wrote:
In post 2048, fireisredsir wrote:he wasn't under pressure at all, the sus came from him making that vote, bc it was a weird vote to make

why would scum go out of their way to go counter to their previous progressions and make a weird vote that will prob draw attention when they didn't really have attention beforehand? i thought it was to save a partner. but it could have been bc he thought he would get towncred for the vote eventually once hut went down
maybe he thought it wouldn't draw attention because he would be able to "i am penguin and i like wagons" his way out of it?

like, the hut wagon at that point is georgebailey (who is basically a non-presence) and you, and baltar has been thoroughly screaming about hut being town and/or easy wagon. and baltar had recently said that he'd be fine voting penguin. like, the vote on hutmeil feels all kinds of unnecessary if scum!hut because it's decently unlikely he actually tips over on d1 i think?

though i guess these do somewhat apply to the town!hutmeil world too so like lmao idk anymore

vp hadn't really screamed about it or said that hut was town, he just had 669 mostly. he started more heavily criticizing the wagon for being easy right after penguin voted. and i think he correctly called that momentum was shifting there

and yea thats my point, like i can't see why penguin would do it if hut was town. and it doesn't really make 100% sense to me why he would do it if hut was scum, but at least that adds another factor to the equation that could influence him to act in a way that was out of the ordinary

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:49 am

this post is gonna annoy datisi but i had a brief flash of a thought that there is a possible world where datisi could do his whole thing about making people commit to giving reads on either hut or peng

and it's the world where he's scum with both of them and sets it up to look like S/T wagons and just rides it out to the end on the towncred he gets from doing it, never needing to worry about the "why wasn't he nk'd" fear bc he can just nk masons instead...

my original hut/dats conspiracy theory... it calls to me...

haha jk

unless...?

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:55 am

ari why do you think that pengu would vote hut there if hut/mala is t/t?

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:10 am

yea, there were 3 on mala, 2 on hut, 2 on vulture (both hut and penguin were there), 2 on me, i believe, as of 1079. momentum was kinda building on both me and hut. if all 4 of those are town it just feels kind of weird to me for penguin to switch to hut there after not posting for 36 hours and not really being under pressure, when he has prior trajectory onto me and no trajectory on hut

like ok maybe it makes some sense if im partners with peng but consider fmpov for a moment, i genuinely do not understand why he would do that and i want another perspective if you have thoughts on it

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:12 am

idk if it makes hut scum but it is a weird action to take and i don't understand it, and i think penguin thinking he wants to get on board the bus before the wagon goes too far is a possible explanation

mala being a partner is a better explanation (and tbh so is me being a partner) but neither of those are right, so

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:27 am

but then why not vote me when he previously said he wanted to wagon me

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:40 am

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:18 pm

In post 2072, Andante wrote:you think you're wrongly TRing me? why?

at the time i posted that i did, mostly bc i felt like you made sense as a partner to george/enchant and i also thought that they were scum

now im not as sure on that and am somewhat compelled by the possibility of ss+hut

kinda think its one of those two pairings but i also kinda think i should try not to get too caught up in looking for pairings bc that backfired yesterday

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:27 pm

In post 2079, Andante wrote:
In post 2002, fireisredsir wrote:the only exception to that is andante, bc i think andante is unpredictable in what she latches onto in people's perceptions of her, and may have had a distorted view of how strongly gamma scumread her.
at what freaking point in this game was I ever concerned about GAMMA SRing me?? please quote it. quote the post that told you I was concerned about a Gamma SR on me.

? i was talking about what you may have been thinking if you were scum. that wouldn't show up in the thread bc duh

i don't even really think it's likely i was just reasoning through SS's point about the nk. which i ended up disagreeing with

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:29 pm

In post 2080, Andante wrote:and now that I'm here and talking you think I'm town again? so when I'm not here, we can throw sus my way, join SS in trying to make a wagon on me. but when I am here it's "oh well at the time I thought that.. now I don't!!"
Like, that post was literally from today.

no? you can read my posts and see how my thoughts changed. nothing has really changed about my read on you since you got here, that happened earlier

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:29 am

In post 2089, Datisi wrote:fire, what are your thoughts on aristeia?

kinda had been assuming she was town ever since the penguin flip and she did her wagon analysis bc i thought both of those pointed strongly to her being town. i don't feel as strongly about it as i did before but i still think she's probably town? i don't really see why she takes the approach to d1 that she does if she's scum with penguin. i don't really think she kills vp. i think that the way she's looking at the game since then is p towny and doesn't really feel like she has a long term plan (slightly hesitant on this point bc i can see one possibility but it seems unlikely), it feels more like the way she sees things is naturally evolving due to new info and new thoughts

i don't really fully agree with your reasoning about her and enchant, since altho i agree the emotion seems real, i think she could easily be frustrated with enchant's play as a general trend. it doesn't really seem like the frustration is very related to either enchant or ari's alignment

but anyway i think she's probably town

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:41 am

ive thought about it some more and im going back to thinking it isn't hut

don't really think we should lim in [std, implo, ari, dats, hut] and if im right on that and everyone agrees then the poe of [andante, ss, enchant, me] wins the game. but they probably don't agree and i might not be right, so hey, idk

i have a kinda hard time seeing ss+andante as a team so i kind of want enchant. i really think implo should reassess his TRs on enchant and andante if not now then after i die bc im p sure he's wrong on one of them or maybe both

i also think that i probably have to die at some point for the game to be solvable just due to the positions ive been in so far which is unfort but thats okay, i understand. i think atp that me living to elo would be an actively bad idea for the likelihood of winning the game. i don't think there's really anything that i could do that would prove my towniness here, and of the 5 people i think are town, at least 3 of them want me dead and i don't think that's ever fully going away

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 5:57 am

the alternative which allows me not to have to die is that we just flip scum today and tomorrow so let's do that :>

i think its enchant, probably with andante, and i regret not pushing harder for george yesterday, got too caught up in looking at a full team solve

VOTE: Enchant

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:05 am

i know that this is a very foreign concept to you, but occasionally people think one thing at one point and then later their mind changes and they think a different thing

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:09 am

In post 2099, Enchant wrote:Fire is maf, cuz blatantly trying to save ass, not elim maf.

While others gived more reasonable... Reasons to even suspect me, it's simple "Bah Enchant maf".

ive given reasons. my current most compelling reason to me is poe. im also not very interested in saving ass, ive already accepted that i prob have to die here

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:19 am

In post 2100, Andante wrote:
In post 2097, fireisredsir wrote:i know that this is a very foreign concept to you, but occasionally people think one thing at one point and then later their mind changes and they think a different thing
so every 12 hours your read on me just flips? it just depends on if I'm here/not here?

no, i just thought it was funny that you were criticizing a read progression for changing too much

it went more like...

1) mala flips, oops i was wrong. it probably is still georgechant? but i was townreading everyone else. so one of those is wrong. which one? i guess the NKs point to andante, and that fits pretty well with both peng and georgechant. there's also SS. hmm

2) oh, SS is pushing andante? hmm. either we're both on the right track, or he set things up with the NKs to frame andante. he's probably not scum with andante because of this and because of the movement together eod1

3) read some SS scumgames to see if I had the wrong ideas of what he would do as scum. realize that my townread on him for my understanding of his meta was probably bad

4) implosion thinks enchant is town. is he right? maybe i need to look deeper into my townreads since nothing really feels right. could it be hut? kind of leaning towards SS+hut, some of it feels like it fits

5) andante is here. her thoughts don't really make much sense but i should remember that isn't a scumtell for her. still leaning SS+hut probably but her posting here isn't very towny

6) ok, nvm, i don't think it's hut. could it be ari? eh, nah, i don't think so. back to the group of [andante, ss, enchant]. still don't think ss+andante pairing makes sense. so let's lim enchant since either way they're scum. also, looking back now, andante's defense of enchant could easily be partnered

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:21 am

so i started thinking you were more likely town around 3 or 4. and then when you showed up my read on you was actually decreasing. and then now im fully back to thinking you're more likely scum

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:31 am

nope sorry you're only scum if hut is scum and he's back to being town. it's a package deal

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:58 am

what do you think of enchant?

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:51 am

In post 2110, fireisredsir wrote:what do you think of enchant?

@s_s

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:42 am

ari why is the 3/4 thing a strong enough reason to rule out georgechant as an andante partner? i don't really think it should be, when andante voted hut there were 3 hut 3 pengu 3 me. george and penguin were on hut, datisi was on penguin. i just don't really think it's out of the realm of possibility that she would choose to join on hut there even if both scum are already there. this is the same andante who later tried to start a last minute wagon on mala

also, with the datisi pairing idea, it also just seems kind of weird for her to vote the easiest counterwagon to try to push it above penguin if her partner is datisi who is bussing at that time? like if she doesn't want to bus, sure ok, but why not vote off main wagons so it doesn't look like she's trying to save her partner if the plan is that datisi is gonna bus penguin while analyzing who took what stance on penguin vs hut?? unless it was like a very planned ahead thing to get bussed by datisi later but also like datisi isn't doing that, so... idk, i think it makes just as much sense there for the partner to just be george and they decided to go all in, either bc they weren't really planning ahead that much (very possible) or bc they knew that people later will look back and go "oh, no way all 3 scum piled on here!" like they always do

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:00 am

In post 2207, Something_Smart wrote:Datisi, how would you rate Ari's ability to read me compared to your own?

really do not like this question bc

1) you know the answer already. you're just trying to lead datisi towards the idea that ari's townread on you is worth more than his own read. proposing that idea on its own isn't shady, but doing this weird indirect innocent-sounding-but-very-leading question thing is, imo

2) you are aware of the meta that ari will use to read you and are capable of adjusting your play around that. you clearly indicated here that you know what your town and scumgames look like, and that you are carefully thinking about how you play in relation to your own meta

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:05 am

kinda doubt he was going to follow up on it at all, regardless of alignment. not really his style

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:12 pm

In post 2216, Something_Smart wrote:Also, I don't see how your objections relate to my alignment. Why am I more likely to do an innocent-sounding-but-very-leading thing as scum? You think I didn't know it was (potentially) leading, or I thought Datisi wouldn't notice?

meh idk, maybe it doesn't. i didn't like it when i first saw it bc it felt somehow insidious, like you wanted to make him think a certain thing but not be direct about it. but your responses are fine and tbh i think i get that kind of feeling about a lot of things that don't actually come from scum so it isn't really a reliable feeling anyway

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:17 pm

In post 2234, Andante wrote:idk my struggle here is I'm stuck on a few reads so it's like, yeah fire maf, but then the partner? most likely in hut/Dragons, but idk which

what makes you think those are most likely to be partnered with me?

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:08 pm

i don't really understand what her SS read is so idk

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:47 pm

mostly bc i don't think ss+andante are paired and i think everyone else is town

i do think their activity and like... presence is not what i would expect from them as scum, so idk. but it's also not what id expect from them as town

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:41 pm

hmm part of me kinda thinks that if andante really did think masons were datisi/SS and thought datisi was mason for a while now then idk if she kills vp/gamma

idk if she would fake thinking that??

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:42 pm

In post 2288, Andante wrote:fire hard claimed not mason earlier with mala

also what, i dont think i that

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:46 pm

In post 2316, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 2288, Andante wrote:fire hard claimed not mason earlier with mala
also what, i dont think i did that

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:43 pm

In post 2318, Aristeia wrote:
In post 2315, fireisredsir wrote:hmm part of me kinda thinks that if andante really did think masons were datisi/SS and thought datisi was mason for a while now then idk if she kills vp/gamma

the mafia also have to think about who is mason - I'm not sure whether she actually thought Dats/SS are the masons but I don't think it's relevant to her alignment.

idk it doesn't really feel like a direction she would choose to go here as maf. maybe she's just good at replicating her own town play but this feels like times when in invictus she would like get bored of the game not going anywhere and so she would out info or theories about info just to see what would happen or to have something to talk about

maybe im wrong tho idk. but i don't think SS is as clearly town as you do so im worried about that possibility

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:57 am

im slightly townreading andante's more recent posting, maybe she was just right and i do townread her more when she's here. most of it doesn't really make sense but it feels like she has thoughts that i have no idea where they came from but they make sense to her. and there's something about that almost indignant attitude of "how can you all not see this" that just kinda rings true to me

idk i don't feel like i have anything productive to say rn but im around if anyone wants to talk

implo who do you think is scum if im town? im still pretty much on enchant + one of andante/SS (maybe leaning SS now?) but you townread two of those

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:27 am

hmm that's unfortunate, i don't think that's right

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:29 am

that would be funny tho if andante called out the maf team as the mason team

it's certainly been known to happen, and in reverse

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:33 am

In post 2357, implosion wrote:Alas. Do you think the strength with which you can call Datisi town is commensurate with the strength of his scumgame?

he has a very strong scumgame but i think there's specific actions taken here that don't make sense from him as scum

one example that i don't think has been brought up is that if he had an inkling that gamma was mason i don't think he pushes her d2 the way he did? and if he doesn't have an inkling that gamma is mason then i don't think he nk's her

like the scum benefit to pushing someone you think is mason is obvious, you can see who is willing to defend them. but that seems to me like the kind of thing that datisi wouldn't really want to dirty his hands with here esp since if he's scum, he's in a decent spot to endgame

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:35 am

i think most of his d2 feels p uninformed in multiple ways and he would have to be intentionally making the choice to play suboptimally for the purposes of faking that which seems high-risk to me. maybe he'd go for it but i don't see why it would be necessary

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:24 am

can i have an objective judgement whether my reason is to be trusted

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:40 am

In post 2365, Aristeia wrote:townreading Datisi for consistently pushing masons is certainly
a take

im only talking about gamma here as that's the only known mason

and yea i don't think he pushes someone that he suspects to be a mason as either alignment, as town bc duh, and as maf bc he wants to look town and cares about how people will see his actions when they look back later. just doesn't seem like his playstyle to me

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:52 pm

hi whats up

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:58 pm

i think it's fair to say that im kinda complacent and a lot of that is bc i genuinely believe based on my current view of the game that me getting flipped here is better for town win% than any other town getting flipped with the possible exception of enchant if enchant is town

maybe thats dumb and throwing idk, if so my bad, but its my read on things

and im not like super strongly confident in who i think is maf or really have anything that i could say about it that would convince anyone so im just kinda like... here

id rather flip scum ofc and if people i trust agree with me on who is scum then im happy going there but if not it's not the end of the world

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:00 pm

In post 2452, Aristeia wrote:ok what do we do after we flip you and you flip town again?

have a better chance of solving the game without having to worry about me being scum

i still think that andante+enchant+ss lims wins the game

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:01 pm

In post 2453, Andante wrote:hey fire, what's your read on Something_Smart?

ive thought that exactly one of you or him is scum for a while now and ive gone back and forth on which one. rn im leaning him and yes that probably is influenced by the fact that you are here and active

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:28 pm

In post 2419, Aristeia wrote:
In post 2415, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean this is gonna sound pretty weird but just reading energy i feel like andante has a lot of WIM that i don't think scum has

fireisredsir posts leave me with something to be desired, i remember a more analytical fireisredsir in other games and it just seems to be lacking that spark, but it's possible i'm just missing something
yea he is really like not into this game at all

i was really into it d2 when i thought i had solved the whole game but then it turns out i didn't have it quite right and that made me feel a bit less into it

it's also just a bit of a weird game to me bc my strongest opinions are about who is town and i feel like ive argued those cases enough and those people aren't really being considered as scum rn so that's cool

and so we're just left with a poe that i think and hope is winning and im in it which is p understandable given the way things have happened so far. ive tried sorting through which of those i think are most likely scum and ive gone back and forth to the point where im not really that confident that what i currently feel is most likely to be correct. but i do think that it probably has to be enchant

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:47 pm

still town

its possible im wrong on that ig but purely on play it's prob my strongest read. i thought vulture was town as well which adds to it

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:29 pm

he's just been busy while you were here. he was def not the way he usually plays scum earlier in the game. possible he just felt a burst of energy and was able to fake his townplay really well, but he did it really well if so

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:22 am

i have several things that i want to say but i don't think it would be productive to say them. hopefully the people remaining can figure them out tomorrow

Spoiler: for ari ONLY, scum don't read this

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 5:55 am

is telling me you don't have a plan part of your plan

also idk what towntelling would be

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:03 am

having fun today reading old games where SS was scum and getting more and more confused why people seem to be underestimating his abilities here

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:15 am

In post 2472, Aristeia wrote:I think he's a mason because he's the only person on the mala wagon that makes sense as a mason

im pretty sure he's not

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:25 am

ok wait are you telling me 1972 was real

this whole time i thought it was faked to try to lead mafia to killing on the wagon and narrow our poe for us

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:26 am

In post 2479, Datisi wrote:okay i had a thought earlier

so the vc is at 2125, with fire wagon decently leading. then ari pops in and there's a page and a half of "actually this fire wagon is Bad, andante is like obviously scum, and also datisi is the most likely partner to scum!andante and etc etc"

and then fire pops in in 2181 like "let me drop a paragraph of analysis on why andante/datisi does not make any sense as a pair", like what. sure, he offered an alternative of enchant/andante, but he kept prioritizing enchant in that pair, AND just giving this analysis does run the risk of ari agreeing with the points against datisi/andante but not buying into other ones

what is the conclusion of this thought

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:27 am

In post 2481, Aristeia wrote:
In post 2480, fireisredsir wrote:ok wait are you telling me 1972 was real

this whole time i thought it was faked to try to lead mafia to killing on the wagon and narrow our poe for us
lol what

i thought you must have a plan bc the reasoning seemed clearly flawed to me >_>

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:28 am

In post 2482, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2471, fireisredsir wrote:having fun today reading old games where SS was scum and getting more and more confused why people seem to be underestimating his abilities here
I think that's the totally wrong way to look at it.

what's the right way to look at it?

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:30 am

i think that id only be posting like this as scum if i were scum with [ari,dats,implo] and was fine with dying and not wanting to spew too much so i think thats a good conclusion

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:31 am

In post 2488, Aristeia wrote:
In post 2485, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 2481, Aristeia wrote:
In post 2480, fireisredsir wrote:ok wait are you telling me 1972 was real

this whole time i thought it was faked to try to lead mafia to killing on the wagon and narrow our poe for us
lol what
i thought you must have a plan bc the reasoning seemed clearly flawed to me >_>

i mean I might just be dumb but I don't think Gamma decided to go off and yeet Mala on his own

i don't think there was any real need for masons to group up there

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:34 am

In post 2491, Aristeia wrote:its not really about need

but i think they would be aware of the mason soft and be cautious about jumping on it, especially if they thought it was intentional to draw out a reaction

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:35 am

In post 2492, Datisi wrote:is it just me, or would it be +ev for town to pick this conversation up tomorrow, after a kill happens?

i think if maf doesn't already know who masons are then this convo will not impact their ability to find them

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:40 am

In post 2496, Aristeia wrote:i think if SS isn't mafia then the mafia will shoot him tonight and if he's somehow alive tomm I guess we could yeet him but I think he just claims mason atp

thats fine ig. that was what i was hoping your plan was when i asked altho i was hoping there was more emphasis on the yeet him tomorrow part

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:42 am

you don't have to do what i want, it could be andante, idk

andante+ss just seems kinda insane to me and idk who else andante could be paired with besides enchant

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:42 am

but i should really stop trying to find full teams so whatever

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:44 am

and (immediately ignoring that resolution) ss+enchant is a good chance at being the team imo

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:52 am

well we'll probably find out if that's the case tomorrow based on the flips

im slightly worried about that possibility too but like, that's why i want to flip enchant. either im right on my poe and enchant is scum, or someone is being very tricksy and flipping enchant will tell us which one is the case

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:54 am

the nk will also help narrow down possibilities

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:19 am

In post 2538, Aristeia wrote:Like even fire/andante don't seem to really want to lim the other person so like what's going on here?

im warming to the idea tbh

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:32 am

would you like to share who you think is mafia?

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:11 pm

altho it is def expected, enchant not wanting to hammer here is tempting me

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:35 pm

In post 2540, Andante wrote:Definitely just dissapointing to see, I've tried my absolute BEST, and I'm being chopped. like, I die, then what? you're just gonna go lim fire, and then you're at lylo. whatever, not my problem.

well that's good, means you don't have to worry about this anymore

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:42 pm

In post 995, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 994, Andante wrote:
In post 992, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 985, Andante wrote:GeorgeBailey - Any intentions on playing the game you signed up for?
Why is George null for you but mala is scummy for lurking?
mala is scummy for her "read" on me
zzzzz

mvp baltar?

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:56 pm

reread and i still tr her d1 :<

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:24 pm

i guess there's no real point in waiting more, i don't think we're getting the last minute flashwagon on enchant

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:28 pm

i could wait for tomorrow since she said she could maybe effort then but idk, when she's been here lately she has put a p low percentage of her energy towards actually solving anything so idk how productive it would be to stall things out further

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:51 pm

the only reason would be that they would know that i would likely do it anyway and it may make then look better not to

and probably them not doing it would even encourage me to do it myself (which it did)

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:54 pm

also if lim is like 95% between me and andante then they don't care who it is. so it's just about what they're more likely to do as town. and with andante as one of their 3 townreads earlier, they prob would not hammer there as town

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:11 pm

the world where all 3 of us are town is a world where i am very confused about what's going on

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:13 pm

i don't really think i could confidently say where i would want to go in that world without seeing who gets nk'd and what they flip

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:15 pm

std whenever you're around next can you talk about why you tr SS?

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:08 pm

In post 2592, Datisi wrote:i gotta run bc work soon but like, if you don't see how andante's "reads" shift based on whatever is convenient for her to push without any actual reason and with actively not following on the reasons she does provide, then idk lole

how confident are you that they are shifting in a way that is specific to her being scum?

also that can't have been more than like 4 hours of sleep smh

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:43 pm

zzz im gonna have to go read past datisi towngames now

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:05 pm

it felt like in that post you turned on a specific mode of posting that to my memory was mostly distinctive to you as scum

like it's very designed towards convincing others of something by using a tone of kind of annoyed + like "come on guys this is so obvious and this other person is ridiculous for thinking otherwise"

it was your snap reaction to bloodhail finding you scum in coalition, you also used it a lot in the go large normal

i found some in 2239 that has a similar vibe tho so its not like something you only do as scum

the reason it felt weird here is bc it usually comes when you're very confident on something or when you think someone is scumreading you for a dumb reason (or you want to portray their reason as dumb). and here the tone didn't feel like it matched up with my understanding of what your confidence actually was which meant the post set off alarm bells for me

still think you're town but it worried me. i don't want to be worried i want this game to be EASY and i still have hope that it is but im concerned about the possibility of it not being easy and what implications that might have

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:33 pm

the flaw in my 2359 and 2367 would be that it's possible he didn't figure out gamma was scum until after he had already pushed there. which is p believable

rip idk gonna go and sleep for far more than 3 hours

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:07 am

In post 2602, Datisi wrote:
In post 2598, fireisredsir wrote:it felt like in that post you turned on a specific mode of posting that to my memory was mostly distinctive to you as scum
i mean like, if you wanna frame the question as "is datisi trying to be manipulative", the answer is yes, yes i am

look at this from my pov. there's fire, who is consistently posting things i'd expect town!him to post. there's andante, who's consistently posting things that i think very neatly fit into a scum mindset, and what someone of her caliber and playstyle might post as scum.

and then you have the andante wagon that just refuses to actually happen because why?

implo wants to kill my townread. he actually tries to engage with my arguments at least, despite his responses being not at all convincing and what i'd hope for.

then you have std, who isn't here, and when he is here se says stuff like "vibes" to justify wagoning fire and not wagoning andante and is consistently avoiding actually interacting with any of my points.

and THEN you have enchant, who. like. why is andante town? "because she's annoying." why am i scum? "because you're pushing this person i think is town."

i've tried debate. i've tried discussion. i'm not getting anywhere with it, and for the most part people don't even wanna talk. and i'm not gonna let town just sit here and kill someone i townread?

i don't quite think this fits tho? like there's been multiple times where its looked like im going to be the elim. such as when ari decided to vote me. ig you can say that you weren't townreading me as much at those points so you didn't care as much

but like i don't really feel any momentum swinging off andante and onto me rn?? so im not sure why your angle is that you are suddenly concerned about people killing me

what worries me is that this didnt show up when i was likely to be the elim. instead it popped up only after there was some speculation of "what if everyone being wagoned is town" and in a world where that's true and you're scum, it would be really bad if people figured that out

i can see why if you're town and thought andante was def scum and really wanted her flip and also had some element of self-preservation, noticing that andante voted you, enchant wanted to vote you maybe, implo wants to vote you maybe, that you would really not want the wagon to slip away from andante

but i don't see why, if that's your mindset, when i ask about your confidence levels you would say (paraphrasing) "idk if i can be confident that this is coming from her as scum vs as town" and then when i ask about your manipulative tone you respond with "yes i am bc i want to save you!!"

like ???

it doesn't quite track for me

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:46 am

In post 1821, Aristeia wrote:like it's one thing to defend your teammate if
nobody is defending your teammate
and there is no viable counterwagon, then I think it makes sense to bus.

but if there are
townies defending your teammate for really dubious reasons
that gives you cover to also throw up some crappy defense to blend in and push for a townie elimination esp if there is a viable wagon on a townie as well?

In post 1822, Aristeia wrote:like if Andante/George are both town and both defending penguin for p bad reasons, I don't see why scum would decide oh I'm going to bus rather than help swing the wagon towards someone else and maybe get a misyeet off?

scum need misyeets to win and the best way to get misyeets is to deny information to the town by running up people who are not scum.

mmm

i think this is still a p good point tho

and idk why datisi scum kills vp unless paired with andante maybe

and idk if anyone really feels like they make sense as a datisi partner

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:49 am

ig the counterargument would be that letting peng die there is ok bc you have several good misyeets lined up in andante/george/mala, if those are all town

plus probably me, and 4 is a win

but datisi def had the agenda coming into d2 of hunting on wagon which would imply to me that if he's scum then his partner is off wagon

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:35 am

In post 2607, Aristeia wrote:the only viable datisi partner i see atp is implosion

if thats the case then i don't think datisi is scum

partly cause i don't think he would feel the fear of a wagon turning onto him, motivating him to push harder for andante, if one of the 3 people angling towards him was his scum partner

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:38 am

i was still thinking datisi+ss as a possibility but idk

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:57 am

i agree with that, im fine with not pushing him here

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:07 am

In post 2626, Datisi wrote:
In post 2594, fireisredsir wrote:how confident are you that they are shifting in a way that is specific to her being scum?
this implies you're asking whether i'm making a meta argument for why scum!andante would be acting like this here, and town!andante wouldn't, like i am for you. that's what the word "specific" tells me.

i do not have the meta knowledge of both her town and scum game to provide along my push. i still think she's responding in a way that makes a lot of sense as scum, i think she's a better kill than you, and yes i definitely think she's a better kill than i am. but i don't have a "btw here is meta on why i think this is specifically scum!andante here" component to back me up.

its less about meta differences between her scum and towngame and more about... like, andante as town shifts her reads a lot, often based on how people in thread are treating her, and she often will give reasons and feel very confident about them one day and completely drop them the next day. you've seen this pattern before and know about it

so i was asking what about her actions makes you think that her reads are shifting based on what is convenient to her to push and like specifically how her actions come from a scum agenda rather than just being town andante doing town andante things

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:10 am

In post 2627, Datisi wrote:
In post 2604, fireisredsir wrote:it doesn't quite track for me
if i need to go back through today and describe my read on both you and andante at various points and how it tracks to my posting, i will

i'm not thrilled about the idea of doing that, but i'll do it

i don't think your read progression is really under question here or relevant to what i was talking about, so no i don't think that would be very useful

why did you bring up saving me as a reason? do you think that it was likely at the time that you posted 2592 that the elim would move off andante and onto me if you didn't start pushing harder for andante? what posts from others gave you that feeling?

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 9:16 am

that was what i was trying to ask but maybe it was unclear

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:37 pm

ok the part about her not making sense is whatever, but i think it's true that the votes come at convenient times for her. idk if its like 100% the case bc like all day ive been the main counterwagon to her. so yes, every time she votes me it's convenient. but also every time she's not voting me it would have also been convenient. the one point that is notable is how she shifted towards thinking i was town after enchant proposed it

overall she does seem mostly reactive rather than trying to solve things herself, and usually only shows up for short bursts, which i think is scummy for her

and i do like that you went ahead and made the case without any additional prompting, but that's a weak feeling, you prob would either way

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:37 pm

ari what are you thinking atm

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:32 pm

In post 2648, fireisredsir wrote:the one point that is notable is how she shifted towards thinking i was town after enchant proposed it

also the vote on SS, i hadn't realized that the wagon on me was mostly gone at that point

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:51 pm

what does enchant have to do with it

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:20 pm

VOTE: Andante

e-1

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:31 am

my immediate reaction to that is that it points to ss being town but it's possible that the kill was chosen intentionally to produce that reaction?

im not really sure how scum could think ari is the most likely to be mason either way atp

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:39 am

i guess if ari is being treated as locktown anyway by most of the game maybe it doesn't matter if they hit a mason? but still, things could always have turned

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 8:40 am

In post 2665, implosion wrote:Why do you think it points to ss town specifically? Just because scum!SS should have been aiming more for a mason? Why would scum!otherpeople not have been aiming more for a mason?

imagine a world where ss is town. scumteam sees ari expressing an unusual level of confidence that ss is a mason in order to protect him from being elimmed. she could be VT making a mason guess. she could be mason shielding her real partner. she could be mason going for a bait play by using someone who isn't her partner.

compare that to a world where ss is scum. ari is expressing an unusual level of confidence that ss is a mason, but now the scumteam is informed that ss is not a mason. that rules out the possibility of ari shielding her partner, and makes it more likely that she's just a VT.

the fact that the scumteam killed ari makes me think that they thought it was at least possible she was a mason. and if they thought she was masons with SS, they have an obvious incentive to kill her instead and leave him alive, since he's then available as a possible yeet

im not like super tied to this chain of logic but it was at least my initial reaction to seeing the flip

it is too nice out to play mafia so ill be back later

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:57 am

idk how hot of a take that is, fmpov if you're town then enchant is very likely scum

and even if you're not town then enchant is probably scum tbh

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:59 pm

In post 2678, Datisi wrote:because whoever counterclaimed him would have to have Very Good relations with both gamma and aristeia, and off the top of my head, it seems unlikely

won't go into this too much but this is not unlikely at all imo

idk even if enchant is scum but i feel like there's probably only one town in [you, enchant, s_s] and i don't know who it is

idk if ari's thoughts about whether we should push SS or not still apply given that maf missed masons on the NK. so maybe he should be left alone another day? i dunno

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 5:50 pm

something's been missing ever since june 29, 2022

yea idk it prob is enchant. wish we had flipped there yesterday but maybe thats partly my fault for not pushing it hard enough

it is probably significant that enchant was efforting and towntelling and looking like they were solving while they were under pressure and then went back to enchant business as usual once the pressure was gone

i don't exactly feel super confident in it but idk if ill ever feel super confident in an enchant read so whatever

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 7:17 pm

i might, but since im not as confident in locking datisi as town anymore then that is p dangerous cause the poe is too big

so id rather not

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:36 pm

nooo he would never, i am pocketed

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:45 am

In post 2697, Enchant wrote:Also masons, for mafia it's blatant who you are anyway at this point, so you can as well CLAIM

i mean i thought this was true yesterday and maf missed anyway so maybe it isn't

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:46 am

std why do you tr ss?

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:49 am

In post 2697, Enchant wrote:For win i need find another VT and persuade everyone else to not decapitate both of us. That's ALL. I had right idea that it could be Andante BUT NO, we starting hesitating, which made me question things that maybe fucking i am wrong. WE SHOULD KILLED FIRE AND IT'S INSTAWIN REGARDLESS IF HE TOWN OR NOT. I RUINED EVERYTHING.

there's literally no difference between limming me and limming andante tho so this doesn't make sense

like if im town (i am!) and you flipped me yesterday we would be in basically the same spot. nobody would see me flip town and be suddenly like "oh, ok, well andante and enchant are clear so let's go lim someone else"

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:50 am

i am also kinda tempted to townread it but i also don't understand the logic behind it

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:13 am

i agree with the points made against his reasons why he can't be scum, i had the same thought about the on-wagon thing, it reminds me of how i was arguing i couldn't be scum in invictus. ive also been fooled before by believing his "i would never do this if i were scum here", he's p good at it usually

im not really sold on his progressions being scummy but they aren't especially towny either

i still think the scummiest thing ive seen from him is what i brought up in 2598. i don't know if i will ever really get over that post bc i just can't get it out of my head that that's a post scumtisi makes when he's just woke up and slightly fumbles on the emotional tone he's supposed to have

if enchant is town it's prob just datisi/ss.

ig im not really sure what his plan is here? hope that other people push enchant for him? or push me?

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:16 am

there were some early moments that felt slightly off and there was also a thought i had that about his d2 play and why it seemed weird for him as scum that i want to think about some more

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:19 am

what worries me ig is that if datisi is town and we find him then this game is very winnable. if he's town and we lim him then we probably just lose. and he's a player where it's really hard to be sure on him and yet it feels like i need to be

i am also finding it increasingly difficult to want to let ss live

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:31 am

oh yea the gamma kill was another weird thing but ig it doesn't really make sense coming from anyone now that andante is town?

like it's possible that he noticed the way that me and ari were shielding gamma and discouraging him from pushing there, and he couldn't tell who was actually the mason partner but could tell that there was probably a reason for that defense

that also kinda fits with killing ari, if he thought they were mason paired due to ari's gamma defense

datisi/ss wrongly thinking ari was mason as of last night just seems kinda wild to me tho. i assumed it would be easier for scum to find masons but maybe they just got tunneled on the wrong things or maybe they thought ari needed to die even if she wasn't a mason

i also still think the SS response to the gamma kill was weird, saying that he didn't think scum figured out gamma was mason. i don't think thats an assumption that town!ss would be making there given he had me in a pool of suspects and i flipped my read on gamma without much reasoning

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 8:32 am

In post 2713, Save The Dragons wrote:i dunno there was something about S_S that made me tr him but i forgot it. i guess i think i didn't think scum!S_S gets into a fight with ari D1? it just seems weird when he could just coast.

i thought this too at first (there were a couple things where he seemed to be more aggressive than i would expect) but after i read some of his scumgames i don't think thats out of his range at all

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 10:49 am

In post 2717, Datisi wrote:
In post 2710, fireisredsir wrote:i still think the scummiest thing ive seen from him is what i brought up in 2598. i don't know if i will ever really get over that post bc i just can't get it out of my head that that's a post scumtisi makes when he's just woke up and slightly fumbles on the emotional tone he's supposed to have
the same point that you said you found in my towngames too, right

lol come on, really?

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:23 pm

enchant town, it's just datisi/ss, ez

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:48 am

this is damaging to my datisi/ss theory

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:51 am

this setup severely limits my ability to just throw out every thought that comes into my head and that is a challenge for me

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:00 am

idk if ss as your scum partner calls you out like that

maybe he does but that was also more or less the reaction i had to it so

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:02 am

In post 2733, fireisredsir wrote:this setup severely limits my ability to just throw out every thought that comes into my head and that is a challenge for me

god i have so many

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:09 am

the profoundity levels are important here tho

like if you were just talking to each other then whatever

but you just took a major step of action and his response kinda shuts you down and weakens your position

it's like if you just took a big step up a ladder and then he kicks it out from underneath you. it doesn't feel like something partners would do

if you wanted to theatre i have no idea why you would be like "hey im gonna pivot onto implo here but do it in a way that looks like mason fishing so that you can call me out for it!"

ig maybe it wasn't planned and you just posted that and then he genuinely saw it as looking awful and so he decided it was better for him to be the one to post about it before anyone else did. that's believable. but it's good theatre if it is theatre and i kinda buy it, so yes it is damaging to the possibility of you being partners

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:11 am

In post 2742, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2733, fireisredsir wrote:this setup severely limits my ability to just throw out every thought that comes into my head and that is a challenge for me
You are spewed not mason so I think you can, just know that if you make a really good argument for why someone is/isn't mason the scum may correctly buy into it. But they may not, and it may help read you, so it could be worth it.

i am fairly confident that i am better at hunting masons this game than whoever the scumteam is considering that ive been right on the flip of every nk so far and scum has also missed twice

so i still don't think thats a good idea

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:15 am

In post 2745, fireisredsir wrote:i am fairly confident that i am better at hunting masons this game than whoever the scumteam is considering that ive been right on the flip of every nk so far and scum has also missed twice

i say this, and yet i am currently somewhat thinking it's possible i have things kinda upside down

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:17 am

ok datisi can be scum for other reasons but the "he was very towny early and he's still not dead" is a trash reason so please don't use it bc he will continue to rightfully shred you for it

scum have very different motivations behind their nightkills in this setup than usual. datisi was not on any of the nights the most likely to be mason

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:30 am

In post 2751, hutmeil wrote:
In post 2749, fireisredsir wrote:scum have very different motivations behind their nightkills in this setup than usual.
I'm curious to know what those motivations are?

In post 2749, fireisredsir wrote:datisi was not on any of the nights the most likely to be mason
Hmm, I'm not sure I understand this. Scum is mason-hunting but since Datisi is still alive, he's likely mason?

the motivations are hunting for masons. if scum do not kill masons they lose

the conclusion is that datisi could be scum, or it could be that scum didn't think he was likely to be mason. i don't think he was ever the most likely to be mason, therefore that is a valid reason for him to not be killed if he's town.

him not being killed does not imply that he is scum bc there is also a reasonable explanation for why he wouldn't be killed

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:43 am

In post 2759, hutmeil wrote:
In post 2754, fireisredsir wrote:him not being killed does not imply that he is scum bc there is also a reasonable explanation for why he wouldn't be killed
It's true that him not dying does not mean he's scum....

In post 2754, fireisredsir wrote:the conclusion is that datisi could be scum, or it could be that scum didn't think he was likely to be mason. i don't think he was ever the most likely to be mason, therefore that is a valid reason for him to not be killed if he's town.
... but you said it yourself, one of the conclusion could be because he's scum and that's my line of thought.

if you flip a coin, one of the possibilities is that it lands heads. however, flipping a coin does not imply that your coin will land heads, because there is an equal probability that it will land tails

datisi not being killed would only increase the probability of him being scum (relative to everyone else still alive) if, in the world where he's town, scum would be more likely to kill him than vp/gamma/ari. i don't think that is the case bc scum were hunting masons, not just killing people based on towniness

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:05 am

In post 2762, hutmeil wrote:
In post 2761, fireisredsir wrote: datisi not being killed would only increase the probability of him being scum (relative to everyone else still alive)
Agreed again.

In post 2761, fireisredsir wrote: if, in the world where he's town, scum would be more likely to kill him than vp/gamma/ari.
Hmmm, why? I had VP as my #1 TR and not Datisi. But hey that's just me.

you split my sentence here. the first quote was a conditional on the "if" in the second part. as in, IF they were more likely to kill him as town, then the fact that they didn't would increase the probability of him being scum

i believe that the second part is false. so therefore the probability of him being scum does NOT increase

as for why they've gotten it wrong, i have no idea. it could be that im wrong too, idk

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:12 am

In post 2763, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2745, fireisredsir wrote:i am fairly confident that i am better at hunting masons this game than whoever the scumteam is considering that ive been right on the flip of every nk so far and scum has also missed twice
On the flip side, if you can correctly identify the masons, then that makes you townier because a team with you might not have missed like that.

I don't think this gives anything away-- why did you think Ari was VT?

i think the very least i wouldn't have killed ari. it's possible i still would have missed, but i kinda doubt it, bc then i wouldn't have to worry about possible scum as well. that also makes me realize that its very unlikely scum will miss a mason tonight due to how narrow things are getting

and ari said it herself, she is not very good at faking an uninformed mindset. i don't think as mason she ever really even goes into the whole trajectory where she thought masons had to be on the mala wagon and how she thought you were mason but that we could kill you the next day if you don't get nk'd. as either mason partners with you or as mason without you. i did consider her as a possible mason early d2 due to her defense of gamma but by mid d3 i had p much ruled it out

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:29 am

i think especially their most recent two posts are both very unlikely and also difficult for them to make as scum

im p ok with just calling them town

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:08 am

In post 2772, Datisi wrote:kinda same, i thought she was pretending to not be a mason when she was like "teehee both scum and both masons are on this wagon that i am not a part of"

i also thought that your question of "hey ari so uh, was that post legit" was a bit ?

but also she came off as not masony from that conversation and the fact that she died anyway and flipped vt maybe points away from fire

yea i thought so as well at first but as soon as she seemed to be legit thinking ss was mason based off that logic then i didn't think that was the case anymore so i felt like it was ok to clarify what her thoughts were

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:21 am

i guess one possible reason for an ari kill could be to intentionally dodge masons and preserve the gamestate of people generally thinking someone could be mason, if they aren't and are actually on the maf team

since a mason kill last night probably means the final one claims which means that if there's someone who is maf that has been using mason spec as a shield, that person suddenly loses their shield

and it doesn't actually matter a ton whether you hit a mason last night since ari is not getting elimmed and as long as you hit one tonight you're fine, i think, maybe

idk if that makes sense given my vagueness

basically i see it as masons are in [std, implo, ss, hut]. if datisi and enchant are both vt, then both maf are also in that group. and if maf know that they're both in that group then maybe they don't want the masons to claim because it would mean they aren't able to hide there anymore

and then part of me kinda feels like that fits with ss wanting to be sure we lim outside of that group. but that could also come from him just being town and trying to play mechanically so idk

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:23 am

this speculation also only really comes from me considering "what if datisi town" and idk if im really sold on that atm anyway

his 2772 felt like towny thought process but im not gonna fully trust just on that

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:30 am

the reason i have a hard time seeing 2717 come from town is cause that is like such a useless response that doesn't actually make any attempt to either sort me or change my mind, it's just a cheap gotcha to look to other people like he won the argument. its performative debate tactics that will never actually convince me of anything bc thats not the point, the point is to look right. and that's p scummy

but idk maybe he was just annoyed and didn't care about actually being useful at that time

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:47 am

thats kind of a weird take bc i feel the opposite, it's more like i want to convince myself that you're town but there's a few things that are sticking points for me

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:50 am

also i never really got the impression that you thought my reason was very bad? do you disagree that you tend to often use that sort of manipulative tone as scum? your response was more along the lines of "ok yea, but it was justified for me to use it here as town bc x and y'

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:54 am

In post 2780, fireisredsir wrote:thats kind of a weird take bc i feel the opposite, it's more like i want to convince myself that you're town but there's a few things that are sticking points for me

like the note at the end doesn't ever come from me trying to see you as scum and idk why you think it would

that's a kind of weak excuse to discredit my own point bc im trying to see both sides even when my gut finds it scummy

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:56 am

In post 2782, Datisi wrote:fmpov, you're taking a post that was clearly not meant to be sorting or helpful and going "wow, this post is not sorting or helpful!! scummy!!"

i don't think it's fair to say it's trying to look like a won argument, because literally everyone alive is smart enough to go reread our convo to find out what happened, and wouldn't fall for a silly one liner

getting a snarky last word in is absolutely a valuable thing for influencing people's perceptions so idk why im not allowed to find the fact that you did that scummy

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:11 pm

i think that you as a player tend to take the tactic of "no, everything i do is towny" as both alignments in response to scumreads and it throws me off a little bc im not really like that, if someone calls out something i did as scummy and i agree that it's objectively kinda scummy even if im town, ill prob be like "ok fair enough"

and i am probably more likely to take the "no thats towny, im town" route as scum so maybe that makes me see it as a sort of scummy thing

it's like slightly dishonest i feel, and my intuition is to see dishonesty and think scum. bc i have a hard time believing that you do think it is "very bad" for me to be giving that reason weight. but maybe thats just your way of saying that it's wrong because it comes to the wrong conclusion. and i feel like the process is still good even if the conclusion is bad. so you responding as if it's all bad feels wrong to me. it feels like if you're town you should be able to see that the process is reasonable. but that could just be your way of responding

and these same points apply to your responses earlier about why you aren't scum. like i and implosion kinda think your reasons were bad. but maybe it's the same thing again, where you are somewhat overinsistent on your own towniness bc doing so improves your chances of winning as either alignment and also makes you harder to catch as scum

basically my point is maybe it's just a playstyle difference thing that im getting hung up over. and ive seen much more of your scumgame so i may have a biased sample that im drawing from

fireisredsir · Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:04 pm

how are you at work from like 7am to 10pm

r u ok

blink 3 times if they have you trapped there

fireisredsir · Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:00 pm

ok idk what to do tbh so im gonna try rereading ig

maybe something from the early game will be eye-opening

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:16 am

In post 2805, Datisi wrote:the day's been going on for like 4 irl days and i feel like we're at the exact same spot we were when it first started

not exactly the same, enchant is town now

which is p huge actually

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:13 pm

lmao nice vc

ok ok fine

VOTE: datisi

i think its probably just datisi by process of elimination and i don't think im ending up anywhere else today unless something drastic changes my mind

i kind of hate this bc i don't feel that strongly about it but i really cannot see any other possible world that makes sense to me

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:48 pm

i think your 2720 was very good at showing a town mindset and i would be really impressed if you faked that as scum, but beyond that, it's not really something i would even think that you would attempt to fake as scum

you trying to kill me doesn't really impact my read on you. i think your reasoning mostly makes sense if you're town

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:49 pm

i also agree with your gamestate read with the exception of swapping me and datisi which is probably a good sign

fireisredsir · Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:54 pm

i guess that isn't that meaningful since there isn't a lot of other options

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:04 am

In post 2816, Datisi wrote:
In post 2810, fireisredsir wrote:i kind of hate this bc i don't feel that strongly about it but i really cannot see any other possible world that makes sense to me
can you talk a little bit about which other worlds have you discarded / how you came to this conclusion?

ok

i think enchant is town. enchant has claimed VT

i think you're not a mason, so you're either VT or mafia

remaining four of std/implo/ss/hut has 2 masons, 1 mafia, and either 1 VT or another mafia. if i can find 1 VT in that group, then it makes you mafia, regardless of who the masons are

idk if i really want to go too much into who can and can't be masons with whom

but imo none of the possibilities that include there being 2 mafia in that group quite make sense to me

and i kinda think the only thing that can really change my mind atp is a flip or a mason claim, and we have to flip someone anyway so we might as well just do that and hopefully im right.

maybe im leaning too much on looking at associatives in a game where people are heavily incentivized to care about having good-looking associatives but idk im struggling to think about things in any other way

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:19 am

also like... if you think me and hut are town. and you think enchant is town. then... idk really what you're doing rn??

like i don't get it

both in terms of where your solve is currently at and also just the vibes that im feeling from you

theres this kind of frustrated cramped vibe that i feel from enchant, the like... ok i have all of these ideas about who the masons can be and that is heavily informing who i think the mafia could be but i can't really call that out specifically and it makes it hard to push who i want to push etc etc etc. andante had it too and i feel bad that i didn't recognize it then as towny

and anyway i 100% really vibe with that and feel those same feelings and that's part of why i connect with enchant being town

I don't feel that at all from you

it seems like if you're town then your head should be spinning with all the possibilities and the inability to express all of your thoughts and you'd probably have endless theorizing in your notes and i just don't really feel any hint of any of that

if there's any frustration from you it feels like due to the lack of action that people are taking or people's reads on you and not due to the awkwardness that comes with being a VT in this current gamestate

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:08 am

fwiw i don't think it really would be that difficult for me to fake

but idk why that would be my first choice of approach here

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:23 am

ig im not really sure what datisi's plan is here as scum

like it doesn't really feel like he's trying to secure a miselim on anybody

maybe his plan is to look like he has no plan. or he understands that he's going to die and is just hoping his partner can clutch it out

bc i also don't really get what he's doing if he's town here either

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:56 pm

why do you think hut is town?

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:38 pm

fireisredsir · Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:17 pm

>.>

<.<

UNVOTE:

i wanna think some more

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:43 am

the only possible way (fmpov, assuming enchant town) that mafia doesn't already know who the masons are is if datisi is mafia. and even if datisi is mafia then they almost certainly can be pretty confident on one mason. so a mason probably dies tonight no matter what

it is also nearly inconceivable to me that town datisi, hunting in a group of 3 or 4 players which also happen to contain all masons, would not at least sanity check a mafia solve by thinking if the other 2 remaining make sense as masons together

i understand not caring strongly about masons and just trying to hunt for mafia. i understand being wary of mistaking mafia for masons or vice versa. i do not understand how town datisi could have implosion as his top suspect and not even remotely consider who the possible masons could be if implosion is scum and if that makes sense with each other and with his other reads. there's not really any harm to doing so. it is throwing an entire axis on which to analyze the current gamestate into the trash and choosing not to use all tools available to him to help solve the game. maybe that's harsh but it just doesn't make sense to me that he would do that as town

the only world where it makes sense to me is if he isn't actually all that confident in me and enchant being town and is considering us as possible implosion partners, but there isn't really any indication of that. i think it would be pretty reasonable to do so, and i would expect him to at least be doing that a little since i think me and implosion make some surface-level sense as partners here

idk, ik different people think about the game in different ways and maybe it is believable that he would just be hunting his strongest scumread and ignoring everything else for now. it just seems kinda wild to me

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:19 am

are you or are you not completely ignoring the fact that the masonry exists

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:25 am

and since you seem to be saying you think hut/std are masons together

maybe im dumb but i have no idea why hut pushes vulture like that d1 if they're mason partners

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:19 am

In post 2845, Datisi wrote:i feel like there is a difference between"i am not gonna worry about my pushed and whether they're hitting a mason" and sanity checking if my solve makes sense now that we have a lot of claims and not a lot of people

ok then why did you originally say "i decided to completely ignore the masons this game" in response to me saying "it feels like datisi isn't really thinking about the masons here" if you are actually in fact thinking about the masons here to the fullest extent of what i would expect

i also think that masons who "distanced" to the point where one of them had literally the only actual opinion he had on the game for the first several days be that the other was scum, are masons who should claim at this point rather than let one of them get NK'd and then suddenly the mafia have a more believable claim to be the final mason. because in that world, unless they had some elaborate crumbing system going on or something, i will believe the mafia every time and not feel the least bit bad about it

and yes i am very aware of the point where they townread each other for townreading each other and i am very aware that you called it out at the time. idk i just don't really believe that you actually believe this

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:55 am

In post 2848, Datisi wrote:bc i thought your point was "why is datisi openly pushing people who may be masons without being worried about it", not " did datisi forget which setup we're playing "

In post 2849, Datisi wrote:idk, my preferred way of playing mason is <elaborate non-fakeable crumb, don't look like masons> so it makes sense to me

hmm ok, that's probably a smart way to do it but i don't think everyone (or even most people) would default to that

hi looker

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:50 am

In post 2853, Looker wrote:A lot of these pictures are not the New Radicals

i had a suspicion that was the case, glad to have it confirmed

fireisredsir · Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:59 am

gamestate is that we have one dead mason (gamma), and one dead scum (penguin). the other two masons haven't claimed (and sadly neither have the other two scum), but enchant has directly claimed VT and datisi and i have both like kinda indirectly claimed VT

SS is VLA and doesn't talk much in general but thinks we should not wagon anyone who is a possible mason today

implo thinks datisi is scum and thinks that's the best elim

datisi thinks implo is scum and has been pushing there

enchant is currently voting me but idk really what they think anymore in terms of reads. me, implo, and datisi have all said that we think enchant is town due to their posting today

hut wants to elim datisi. i think everyone is assuming hut is town? idk if anyone has stated any paranoia there

i have a hard time seeing myself come around to wanting to vote anyone besides datisi but im not certain enough to be voting atm partly bc you might as well have a chance to share some thoughts now that you're here

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:03 am

well it was right when it was me+andante town

idk how to sort within the unclaimeds without a flip or a claim tho especially when one of them isn't here

datisi not considering mason possibilities bc he is assuming that masons will try to not look like masons is decently believable but idk im not sure i buy the full progression

it feels kinda like he's just saying whatever is convenient to him at the time to explain what he's done/is doing

like how do both "why yes of course i sanity checked if my current mason solve makes sense together bc i am good townie" and "masons could be literally anyone bc i assume that masons would have an elaborate crumbling system and would distance heavily" fit together

what are you sanity checking for in that case? that they never actively tried to murder each other? well, guess what, that's true for every pair of possible masons with maybe the exception of ss/hut but he could probably sell that as distancing too if he wanted

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:51 pm

In post 2863, Datisi wrote:
In post 2862, fireisredsir wrote:what are you sanity checking for in that case? that they never actively tried to murder each other?
if your issue with my solve is that my bar for the masonry is too high, then what's the problem with the two different thoughts you pointed out as not making sense together

ik its not a logical inconsistency but it feels like an emotional inconsistency

if that makes sense

it probably doesn't

like even tho those two thoughts can coexist if you have a high bar, it doesn't make sense to me that the first thing would be your response

fireisredsir · Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:51 pm

i feel WEAK and CONFUSED

looker where you at, we need you

fireisredsir · Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:23 am

why do you think its enchant

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:27 am

im around all day, don't think we're in danger of a no elim

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:30 am

i wanted to hear looker's input but i don't really understand the point. like datisi said, idk why enchant should be in the running specifically, all three of me/datisi/enchant have been in the running at various points in the last two game days

is there anything about enchant's play that makes you want to vote them? or is this just like a wagon theory argument

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:47 pm

i really don't think there was an inconsistency that was overlooked, tho. its not like everyone was ignoring enchant. i wanted to lim enchant yesterday and at the start of the day today. but then enchant started being very towny by play and me, datisi, and implosion at a minimum all recognized and agreed on that. i think thats worth something

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:12 pm

ill vote before i go to sleep tn since i may or may not be awake before deadline

mostly waiting to see if SS has any input ig

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:15 pm

maybe ill finally do that reread

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:16 pm

In post 45, Aristeia wrote:I'm pretty sure I've never lost a game when I've gotten nightkilled like um

ever

uh oh, we've gotta win this one for ari, guys

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:22 pm

i forgot how much datisi pocketed me early game

maybe its still working

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:39 pm

what

if you mean SS, he's been unavailable for a while and got back today

presumably he is reading things now or will soon

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:18 pm

rereading hasn't really changed my mind about anything

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:18 pm

alright its time

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:32 pm

ive got bad news, datisi

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:33 pm

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:35 pm

maybe you need to talk about scum less. it thinks that's a really negative word

this is some really sophisticated stuff here. can't be wrong

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:45 pm

i think it grabbed "scum penguin" as a phrase

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:12 pm

i don't think looker claimed anything, pseudo or otherwise

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:12 pm

and i don't think he should

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:19 pm

i think the idea was that everyone who was pseudo claimed VT (me and datisi and you) had votes on them at the time except you, and that could mean that mafia was unwilling to wagon you for some reason, and that reason could be that you're mafia

i agree that its a dumbass idea (and a misunderstanding of the gamestate) but i think it is looking at things from a very top-down, objective sort of way and says nothing about his own role

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:04 pm

In post 2917, Datisi wrote:what if the scumteam is s_s/looker and the reason absolutely nothing happened today is because scum wasn't playing and town is being too scared to do anything

haha jk

unless

this is one of the possibilities yes

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:06 pm

why are you convinced that datisi is town

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:09 pm

i think you look kinda awful either way ngl, but i townread both the previous holders of your slot so 2 > 1 for now

why does complacency and inactivity make datisi town?

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:10 pm

i mean have you seen your pfp

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:15 pm

yea i don't really know how to interpret that

fireisredsir · Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:32 pm

i was hoping i would feel better about this by now but i don't really

no real chance im happier with any other option, tho

VOTE: datisi

e-1

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:53 am

i don't see why it would

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:55 am

ah wait i think i see what you're saying

you mean that in that case consensus is wrong on enchant or me?

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:58 am

you don't have to answer further if you don't want to, that was rhetorical

i think we should probably just kill datisi then? ill think for a minute

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:34 am

yea i agree

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:40 am

fireisredsir · Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:41 am

we'll see

fireisredsir · Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:40 am

aw i was hoping they'd somehow miss again

fireisredsir · Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:41 am

sorry i had to be dragged kicking and screaming to a datisi vote, sometimes it do be that way

ty implosion for staying strong

fireisredsir · Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:01 am

i actually didn't like yours lol