Open 862: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Kop]

Aw shit. Here we go again.


Look, likelyhood of Somnus being town is already high.
No one scumread Goldfish for real, and only idea is "Let's kill Goldfish because null, if we are wrong, we get conftown anyway and can protect him!". Conftowning person who is already town is kiiiiiiiiiiiiiinda dumb, especially because with idea "Why not, we can protect him!".


It's just not worth it mechanically, unless there's like 80%+ chance of goldfish being mafia, and i am pretty confident that Goldfish is Town than not, but that's me (i can't provide reasonable explainings).
Even if Goldfish is mafia (which can be possible, like anything possible), it may be even benefiting to ignore him for a moment, where we are unsure. I strongly believe that he turns obvious lategame, and this way Somnus will be alive as well, which easies game a bit.


In unpredicted case, where Somnus and Goldfish both mafs (Which i am 99% sure NOT a case, but still), i still belive it's worth to watch them, not risk likelytowns just for sake of risk.

I agree with this, and this makes me feel better about Enchant's slot. Goldfish is the one who has a claimed inno on them, yeah? I don't want to lim Goldfish either.

-Mistress

I can confirm that my previous slot did investigate Somnus and is aligned with town.

[Kop]

Mafia: Jake, Don Draper, Gamma.

Jake overall, Don Draper doesh't care, Gamma correctly read me always, but now probably have incentive to kill me.

Are you only scum reading Gamma because he scum reads you?

[Kop]

Likelihood of both Enchant and Jake being town?

High.

If you're believing that the chances of them both being town as high, why would you vote for one of them? Why aren't you putting the case forward for them being town, and actually voting for the person who YOU believe is to be scum, and put the case forward?

I know if I was in you're shoes, if I believed the chances of someone being town, I wouldn't be voting them to get them eliminated, even at this late stage of the day. I'd be trying to build cases on who I believed to be scum and trying to get them eliminated.

Who know. Maybe i just won game by collecting all mafia on my wagon.

I think the chances of all the scum team being on your wagon, is very very low, but not out of the question.

Likelihood of both Enchant and Jake being town?

High.

I'd say quite low And Jake's lecturing is a lot easier to fake as scum than Enchant's frustration is

Frustration can also be faked as scum.

I'd say quite low And Jake's lecturing is a lot easier to fake as scum than Enchant's frustration is

Disagree that both can't be town but agree that Jake seems more likely to be scum.

If Frog's attack on the hydra at start of D2 was from scum, I'm impressed.

VOTE: Jake

E-1 I think?

You said the chances were high for both being town, but now it's changed. What made you change your mind?

I think he (and others) probably caught in trap where possible elims are you or me.

We should yolowagon someone else as well. Why not.

Within the time frame that we have, I don't think we could get another wagon going, with everyone agreeing with it.

[Kop]

Are you callign Enchant scum Kop?

Not necessarily calling Enchant scum, I'm just not agreeing with BBT's views with his progression, and where his vote is.

Likelihood of both Enchant and Jake being town?

High.

If you're believing that the chances of them both being town as high, why would you vote for one of them? Why aren't you putting the case forward for them being town, and actually voting for the person who YOU believe is to be scum, and put the case forward?

I know if I was in you're shoes, if I believed the chances of someone being town, I wouldn't be voting them to get them eliminated, even at this late stage of the day. I'd be trying to build cases on who I believed to be scum and trying to get them eliminated.

Who know. Maybe i just won game by collecting all mafia on my wagon.

I think the chances of all the scum team being on your wagon, is very very low, but not out of the question.

Likelihood of both Enchant and Jake being town?

High.

I'd say quite low And Jake's lecturing is a lot easier to fake as scum than Enchant's frustration is

Frustration can also be faked as scum.

I'd say quite low And Jake's lecturing is a lot easier to fake as scum than Enchant's frustration is

Disagree that both can't be town but agree that Jake seems more likely to be scum.

If Frog's attack on the hydra at start of D2 was from scum, I'm impressed.

VOTE: Jake

E-1 I think?

You said the chances were high for both being town, but now it's changed. What made you change your mind?

I think he (and others) probably caught in trap where possible elims are you or me.

We should yolowagon someone else as well. Why not.

Within the time frame that we have, I don't think we could get another wagon going, with everyone agreeing with it.

Assuming there's no extension (and I don't know how much good it would do at this point), gun to your head right now, out of the two big wagons, where would your vote go?

My mind is inclining to go with Jake, tbh.

[Kop]

You not agree with me voting Jake?

I didn't say that, I was talking about BBT.

[Kop]

I was talking about the fact that BBT said that you and Jake had a high chance of flipping town, but yet has his vote there, and his natural progression that Jake is the likely one to flip scum, without any explanation. It doesn't feel right, and I don't agree with it.

[Kop]

What do you suppose I do, Kop?

Explain your progression. Why did you go from both being highly likely to be town, to Jake being the likeliest scum out of them two?

[Kop]

I was talking about the fact that BBT said that you and Jake had a high chance of flipping town, but yet has his vote there, and his natural progression that Jake is the likely one to flip scum, without any explanation. It doesn't feel right, and I don't agree with it.

Where is the contradiction here Have you never had to vote between two competing wagons you didn't like and had to settle for one over the other

Yes I have had to consolidate on a wagon that I didn't like at the late stage of the day before, but a few days before deadline is enough to put forward a case of someone that you scum read.

However we are at a stage now, that I do actually see BBTs point if another wagon was to start, it would make me nervous too.

[Kop]

Sorry for inactivity, work has been crazy this week. I will intend to read this over the next day or two. I've seem to have a lot to catch up on.

[Kop]

Haven't read much past page 10, all I can conclude is that my slot had many opinions and not facts.

I have just finished Page 6-

Probably not something Jake's partner points out? Like, I don't think this was necessarily some huge "Gotcha!" moment, but I dunno that his partner points this out.

To me, scum!Penguin/Enchant only makes sense if the plan as soon as Jake replaced in was, "Ok, we're bussing the ever-loving shit out of you immediately." I don't like the timing of Penguin's unvote of Jake late in Day 2, but he did switch back to Jake to put him at E-1 when we were somehow nearing the deadline. Thoughts, I guess?

I'm not buying that switch back. That could easily be interpreted as trying to buy credit, because realizing that Jake was eventually going to be eliminated he didn't want to look suspicious with the unvote. Personally thinking.

[Kop]

I see that Penguin was fairly on at Jake throughout half a dozen posts that I read, but that doesn't rule out that there was a bus, and the whole change to Enchant before switching back to Jake doesn't feel right in my mind, it felt like he switched to Enchant hoping that it would take off, then as deadline got closer decided to switch back to Jake possibly knowing that he would flip scum, therefore it feels like he would gain some town cred for doing so (hiding behind I could have coasted to a no elim excuse if I was scum).

It doesn't feel right, but once I'm over my tiredness I will read into it all a lot more.

[Kop]

why does BBT's vote look bad to you, NM? I don't need to ask about mine because I'm pretty sure of why.

Placement, There's a bus and if it's a double bus it was an early vote + Penguin, cos Penguin's vote tipped the balance and sealed Jake's fate. If it's one scum bussing, it was you or BBT just trying to get their name on the wagon for towncred. If BBT is scum, I don't think he was committed to the wagon going through, he just wanted to be seen to be pushing Jake for cred, but then the wagon went through very quickly EoD

If you're talking about the early vote on the wagon that could be the bus, it would have been Penguin if he had kept his vote on Jake.

I think it's probably Penguin more than BBT that is the likely bus.

VOTE: Penguin

[Kop]

With the way he jumped off, hoping that Enchant wagon may have taken off, but realizing that it wasn't, and Jakes was taking off, he had to jump on in hope to buy credit.

[Kop]

We should probably look for the scum who tried to save Jake, not bus them.

That makes much more sense.

I don't think anyone was trying to save Jake if I recall.

[Kop]

With the way he jumped off, hoping that Enchant wagon may have taken off, but realizing that it wasn't, and Jakes was taking off, he had to jump on in hope to buy credit.

Just gonna reiterate this:

If there was late scum in Jake wagon it's probably Penguinpower.

Nope. Already said why not. Pay attention.

VOTE: kop

If I'm looking for credit, I'm not going to hop on in a position or manner that doesn't get me credit...

I most certainly wouldn't say:

i mean - the gamesates were entirely different, but yeah, i shouldn't be town solely for voting scum.

But it's just words, thats all it is, it's words. Think about it logically, you can say anything, to make it look like you want it to look and people to buy it.

[Kop]

Enchant was a counter wagon to Jake and those wagons were very much 50/50 for what felt like a good % of the day.

No doubt scum tried to save Jake by voting Enchant.

Which takes it to Bella or NorwegianboyEE.

However I think Penguin is the likeliest to be scum ahead of them. Don't forget that Penguin moved his vote from Jake to Enchant, then he reverted back to Jake right at the end.

[Kop]

UNVOTE: Penguin

I'm not sure I buy the claim, but I don't think it's a risk to leave him on L-1 if he's indeed telling the truth.