Open 176 - Night Watch - GAME OVER

[Adel]

No worries, 10 days since I asked to replace in isn't too long.

vote:NoLynch

[Adel]

My attention to detail is slipping:

-----------------------------------------

There has been no lynch.

does that mean that it is currently night?

[Adel]

why?

[Adel]

his posts in this game:
PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:09 pm Post subject: 0
PostPosted: Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:15 pm Post subject: 1
PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:03 pm Post subject: 2
PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:38 pm Post subject: 3
PostPosted: Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:44 pm Post subject: 4
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:20 am Post subject: 5
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:20 am Post subject: 6

why do you think he made his NK choices?

[Adel]

so you have no theory to explain why Octupis was the last NK?

[Adel]

you have no idea, seriously, why he would be the NK choice?

[Adel]

crap, do you have any idea why Octupis would be the NK target last night?

[Adel]

just trying to catch dragonfly before he leaves.

[Adel]

if you were scum, how would you intrpret this post from your buddy?

Doesn't look like we can get one of us confirmed through this.

Good fakeout.

vote Kublai

Good bussing.

[Adel]

not "hey newbie scum partner, one of them can be confirmed!"

[Adel]

regardless of the actual legitimacy of charter's plan, Dragonfly-as-scum's perception of the plan is important. If Dragonfly13 was scum with Kublai Khan then that post by KK could that explain why charter and then Octupi were killed following KK's lynch: Dragonfly13 thought that KK was pointing out that charter was wifoming, and charter or Octupi could possibly be confirmed.

does this make sense? Do you think that it is likely?

[Adel]

dramonic plese provide links to every game you've played with Debonair Danny DiPietro

[Adel]

some notes as I work through the game

mmm.. by my time setting, the game thread was open for pregame from Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:00 pm until Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:05 pm. Scien posted once during that time, ekiM did not post at all, and dramonic posted a bunch.

during that time this thread was unlocked ekim hasd the time to make the following post in another game (now completed)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 63#1922463 -- he was town in that game.

the day 1 started at Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:06 pm Post subject: 25

I also don't get why people are joke voting.

What is there to go on at this point (this is a real question to you BTW)? You're claimed link between ekiM and DDD. I couldn't trust it even if it wasn't WIFOM.

Seems like you are setting up a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing here. Don't follow your suggestion: "Why is everyone joke voting, we are clearly out of random stage". Follow your suggestion: "Woah why are you taking my advice to go for the only person with any real suspicion at the moment. Following!" Just curious as to why you would be doing that?

Since there is nothing to go on, RVS isn't really over yet.

However it does seem that it seems like it going to end soon judging from interactions so far. Thank god.

I wonder if this is scum buddying up to ekiM-town, or defending ekiM-scum.

I'm kinda waiting for ekiM's reaction to all this.

this could be scum prompting his partner to post -- it was made at Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:33 pm Post subject: 70

ekIM makes his first post at Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:12 pm Post subject: 74

between the start of day 1 (post 25, Oct 23, 2009 9:06 pm) and his first post here (post 74, Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:12 pm) ekiM made no other posts in other threads on this site. damnit I was looking for a decent scumtell. I suppose that he might've been really threatened by Charter's earlier post...

huh, Scien and ekiM both played in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0 (Mini 880 - Mini Quick and Dirty -- an ongoing game) but neither of them have had their roles revealed in that game yet. That game's confirmation stage began on Tue Nov 10

ekiM's last post in this game was Wed Nov 11, 2009 2:23 am Post subject: 421
his last post anywhere on this site was at Fri Nov 13, 2009 11:08 pm.
in between his last post in this thread and his last post o this site he made 7 other posts.
In between his last post in this game and his last post on this site, a total of (584-421=163) 163 posts were made in this game. During that time span (were ekiM was posting elsewhere on mafiascum but not here) Gregory started of being the closest to a lynch at 4 votes, and sleepless assaign ended up getting lynched with 7 votes:

his lynch wagon:

Sleepless Assassin

- 7 -

hewitt

,

Kublai Khan

, dramonic,

Scien

,

DeathRowKitty

,

RayFrost

,

charter

interestingly, the next largest wagon at the time of the lynch was: dramonic - 2 - ekiM, Gregory

~~~
day 2 opens with dramonic posting (post 594) within a minute of the moderator posting the deathscene. proof that he was paying attention.

~~~

Sigh. And there is your second scum.

Way to totally attack the easy target. Bet you are totally jumping for joy at this point.

Town... look at Dramonic's play and tell me it looks protown. Attacking everyone in sight all game long. Jeze.

I'm clearly going to have to meta Scien. He thinks that he is awfully clever with his wifom. He was totally outed as scum by this point. Several of his following posts are along the same lines. I'll need to do a deep meta on Scein, with namedrop analysis.

~~~
here is some potential meat:

Dragonfly13 has replaced ekiM

posted at Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:59 am

ATTENTION DRAGONFLY13!

PLEASE CLAIM YOUR ROLE, AND THEN VOTE FOR SCIEN. READING THE THREAD IS UNNECESSARY. THANK YOU.

good post charter! I wish this type of thing was more common. It is a good low risk tactic with a low probability of a high payoff -- worth the gamble.
followed by rayfrost seconds the motion in 659
and dramonic posts the too cryptic

That would be quite hilarious.

-- this maybe a clever pro-town post that doesn't overreach with the pressure on dragonfly. 670 was posted at Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:44 am

I'm not going to claim, but I see the reason for voting scien; I quick-skimmed the topic beforehand (was quite intrigued with DRK's hypo-hider idea) and I believe DRK's flip pretty much confirms scien as scum.

Vote: scien

posted at Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:09 pm immediately followed six minutes later by

Otherwise suspicious of KK and RF, will try to get around to a read this weekend.

ok, so what was dragonfly's site activity between Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:59 am (keep in mind that he skimmed the topic before then) and Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:09 pm?

a post in another game that is ongoing and that dramonic and dragonfly are both still alive in. that post was made at 11:54 am. 15 minutes later he made his post in this game at 661

~~~

Well, when KK kills ray tonight, that will confirm KK as scum beyond a doubt.

Totally framed, yo.

After re-reading the past few days I can only insist at this point that there has been a giant mod-error. Don't trust the words on the screen people. Words can be manipulative. They can be distorted and abused for nefarious means. Instead trust pictures.

Pictures don't lie. Look at the avatars. Who has the scummiest avatar? That's right... ekiM. That's a mafia face if I ever saw one.

vote: ekiM

FoS: KK

Why would you place a random vote at this point in the game? It looks like you consider charter to have framed you for saying that, why not vote him? Also, I am ekiM's replacement; is my avatar scummy? :/

Still attempting to catch up. Also, it was stupid of me to be suspicious of RF because DRK hid behind him N0. That pretty much confirms him as town, due to DRK's "investigative" power. Which is why he was NK'd. Which leads me to be suspicious of charter for saying "when KK kills RF" when any scum in their right mind would kill RF due to the confirmation given by DRK's hider results.

These are statements made without having read the whole game, so cut me some slack if someone or another is obvscum or obvtown at this point and I'm getting that part wrong.

Y'know, you're right Dragonfly13. I had a moment of

inebriation

confusion and I'm sorry about that.

unvote
vote: charter

Remember: if charter implies that you're dumb or stupid or foolish for disagreeing with anything he says, then it's a massive scumtell for him. Ignore whatever else he says.

this could be coaching (KK has alts so his post count of 990 isn't truly representative of his experience, and he has a strong rep, so I think that he would coach dagonfly if they were scum together -- dragonfly only had about 120 total game posts at the time.) Taken as a whole this is an interesting sequence. I'm looking for hidden communication. It could read as

kk: wifomy post
dfly: don't just be random, I haven't read the game, please give me a clue as to who to kill tonight
kk: ok, kill charter + dig at charter to hide this message

meh my attention to detail is slipping again. dragonfly and KK had a chance to talk during the night, from Nov 22, 2009 3:39 am until Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:42 am -- during that time dragon made 4 posts on this site, and kk made a little over 20 -- that had time to exchange several messages if they are scum together. Clear coaching in the thread is unlikely sich kk knew that he was screwed and had a chance to tell dragon to.. play dumb? that would explain comments like "These are statements made without having read the whole game, so cut me some slack if someone or another is obvscum or obvtown at this point and I'm getting that part wrong." -- he was coach to appear dumb so that he could coast?

~~~

Perhaps I should read the topic before posting anything else. This game is silly.

huh. he just now got to that point? sincerely? I find it questionable.

~~~

so assuming a kk-dragon scum team, KK would've mapped out the future night kills. So I doubt my earlier theory of dragon-scum thinking that one of (charter+ Octupis) could be confirmed as town.

[Adel]

dramonic plese provide links to every game you've played with Debonair Danny DiPietro

pretty please?

[Adel]

that is it?

[Adel]

he was killed n1. Do you clearly recall why?

[Adel]

were there any points in time in this game when you forgot about it, and missed a few pages and had to get caught up?

[Adel]

ekiM's play was scummy. We almost had to break his arm for him to go along with the hypo-claim, even then he was against N0 claim (which is basically what confirmed rayfrost, aka good thing).
Additionally, he tried to line up lynches on greg, hewitt and me, all town.

which wagons have you been on? Charter was suspicious of you at one point, and I'm having trouble understanding why KK would tell dragonfly to kill Octopi instead of you.

I wish that I hadn't posted in the replacement thread, but there is a chance that KK did see my post there before the end of the night.

[Adel]

kk: charter - hewitt - Sleepless Assassin - Scien
scien: Hewitt - Charter - Kublai Khan
ekim: hewitt - dramonic
dramonic: Charter - Scien - Greg - SA - Greg - SA


I'm think this could be a scumtell against you. I think that a scumteam of three players of moderate experience would do a little bit of distancing by voting eachother when it wasn't a serious threat of a lynch. Retort?

[Adel]

were there any points in time in this game when you forgot about it, and missed a few pages and had to get caught up?

pretty please?

[Adel]

this sequence is really buzzing my intuition:

Ok, finally went back and checked. I actually looked a lot like a hider who hid behind Ray, if you read my posts and search for when I mention him.

Octupis was a potential hider as well, but he didn't really post anything about ekim.

Doesn't look like we can get one of us confirmed through this.

vote Kublai

Well, what I was hoping for was for one of us to have voted the person we claimed to hide behind, that would mean the other was town. It's pretty much the same thing you use to confirm or disprove normal investigative role claims.

Oh well, still pretty confident scumhunting will win this one.

Doesn't look like we can get one of us confirmed through this.

Good fakeout.

vote Kublai

Good bussing.

[Adel]

are you willing to vote for dragonfly, right now?

[Adel]

Concur with charter that anyone who watched DDD should claim. So do many others.

I already said I don't get charter's suspicion of me. I don't get why DRK followed him without asking for a rationale or for me to respond.

I need to sit down and look at that other Night Watch game to see if hypo-hider is viable. It sounds good to me at first glance. I would like to know why RayFrost doesn't like it.

---

What are the odds of the hider dying night one if he hides?

P(Hider dying night 1) =
P(Hider picks scum) + P(Hider picks town and that guy is targeted) =
3/11 + ((8/11)*(1/9)) =
3/11 + 8/99 =
27/99 + 8/99 = 35/99 ~= 0.35.

That's assuming random choices, the hider can do better by hiding with someone with less of a reputation and thus less chance of being killed.

Still not worth it, I feel.

---

Scien's wall of text is totally unproductive, but I don't feel it's alignment indicative. Please try to be more succinct.

---

I need to hear charter's response to my previous post.

---

Legitimate contribution:

charter, DRK, ekiM,

KK

, Scien, RayFrost.
Posting but posting nothing worthwhile: Dramonic, hewitt.
AWOL: Gregory, Sleepless Assassin, Octupis

And ekim, what legitimate contribution has KK made so far?

charter, you think I killed DDD because of private conversations you had with him that I've never seen? Really?

OK, KK hasn't said anything. Thought he had.

sleeplessassassin the plan is for you to comment on what's happened so far.

is this sequence as much of a scumtell as I think it is?

[Adel]

I just reread page 17. I'm sold on ekiM as scum

vote: Dragonfly

[Adel]

i'm not scum, are you?

[Adel]

darn.

[Adel]

gg

[Adel]

charter: what did I miss?

[Adel]

I replaced in and immediately intuitively thought that dramonic was scum, and I was getting worried that my cognitive bias was going to let obvious scum slip through.

[Adel]

sorry for losing the game for the rest of you. I didn't do my meta homework on Scien and dramonic like I intended to, so I feel like I only have my own laziness to blame.

[Adel]

damnit

kk: charter - hewitt - Sleepless Assassin - Scien
scien: Hewitt - Charter - Kublai Khan
ekim: hewitt - dramonic
dramonic: Charter - Scien - Greg - SA - Greg - SA


I'm think this could be a scumtell against you. I think that a scumteam of three players of moderate experience would do a little bit of distancing by voting eachother when it wasn't a serious threat of a lynch. Retort?

your hesitation in answering this should've made me pause.

[Adel]

I'm getting more a newbtown vibe than newbscum vibe from SA.

It helps that I have a pro-town read on SA.

I'm baffled by this. What has SA did that could potentially come off as protown???

How can you have had a town vibe from SA yesterday and now be "baffled" that someone could have a town read on her? Please explain.

Because reading someone in ISO can lead to incorrect assumptions. Once you read the complete interaction you see how scum he is.

really good job on following up on this dramonic. Since nobody else focused upon it, I totally didn't consider it a legitimate tell.

[Adel]

np