Open 279 - Rusty Guillotine Mafia - Game Over!
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Simenon is scum. He points out a case on someone then immediately hedges with a potential meta-defense. His fixation on Ythill posting thoughts about the setup before posting thoughts about the game is bizarre and a half-ass attack.
I agree about crypto. Town.
I'm less sure about the consensus on Ythill, but that hardly matters. He's not our lynch for now.
VP Baltar comes across as mildly scummy to me at this point. But I see little reason to drive his wagon for now.
Luck isn't as scummy as people have made out, I don't think. That's a gut call, but I think people are stretching to make it stick. That's fine in the beginning, but I see more promising avenues.
Concission is combative without providing any real help to the town. I suggest people go back and actually read his "contributions" to the game. It's not just that he's had trouble getting purchase on the game as can happen, but it's that he's trying to seem active by picking some pretty pointless things to quibble over. Admittedly, his posts have come earlier on in the game. I'm looking for improvement from him, but I'm saying scum for now.
So for me that leaves Concission and Simenon as the best lynch candidates. I'd love to hear more from Jarti and to a lesser extent RedC and Almaster.
But for now, I'm good with:
VOTE: Simenon.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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So I went through all the players today after sleeping on my initial read. One thing that stands out to me is how after a full read I couldn't really remember a thing Shadow Dancer had said. I figured he had been inactive because I barely noticed her presence. So I isoed him.
He has TWENTY-FIVE posts. That's over 10% of all of the posts are his. Admittedly, this COULD just be a problem I'm having. But try and read her. Go on. It'll only take a minute or so.
What the heck is he doing? There's such a thing as helpful setup speculation or even helpful theory discussion or discussion on town strategy. But then there's this. Which is picking and choosing when to interject without actually having to make much in the way of a judgment on any particular player. That's what he's doing. He's made a half-ass effort of tunneling on Anti, but it doesn't feel very sincere to me. Regardless, he's succeeded in being entirely unmemorable, and I think that feels rather intentional.
I stand by my Simenon read, I'm feeling less compelled by my Concission read today but it's worth revisiting. However, I think this is the way the game needs to go:
VOTE: Shadow Dancer.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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How can you get a town read from SD???? I admit my first reaction when I read the game wasn't "scum scum scum" but it certainly wasn't town.Fate wrote:
I'm just saying, if your reads are WRONG or TERRIBAD, its more likely you're town than scum.Ythill wrote:@VPB:I used to be an arguer. I've since found that it doesn't help me find scum. Quite the opposite, actually. There are still places where I will argue with people but this isn't one of them. I didn't state my case against you to debate it with you, I stated it because people were asking me to and I figured they wanted to get a read on me.
I am not "so convinced" that Conc is town, I just think he's somewhat more likely town than scum. And I'm still not explaining why.
@Fate:Oh, I forgot about that one. But I don't see how that's relevant to your jibe. I found scum 2/3 days that I was alive.
Good lord zoraster just voted SD. And he was doing so well too..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Sorta.VP Baltar wrote:So he's not someone you're really interested in lynching, but you don't really care....
There's no reason to waste a good wagon. I'm being honest: he's not someone I feel particularly good enough about to defend, and right now he wouldn't be my choice, but I'd be willing to lynch him myself if it comes to it. It means the ball is in his court to convince me (and of course anyone else) one way or the other..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Maybe I should have been clearer, but I didn't want to guide his response. But I didn't want him to claim straight off. But the last time he posted, he had TWO votes on him. So presumably he's got to have some reaction to the wagon that's formed that can give me some insight into his alignment.VP Baltar wrote:Well, he is at L-1 and you said you're willing to lynch him...so obviously he is going to claim. I'm not sure what you mean zoraster..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Wagons simply do not have pressure if there's no threat of lynch, however removed, behind them.Shadow Dancer wrote:But Baltar is still town, Ythill...
And who's already talking about claiming and hammering? I thought this was agreed on as a pressure waggon? Alma should defend himself and contribute some reads, as far as I am concerned.
Anyway, the claiming talk came from crypto (who seems to honestly have thought I was calling for a claim, which was understandable) and Ythill (who probably should not have actually thought I was asking for a claim but wanted to act like I was anyway.) It didn't come from anyone who could have wielded the hammer..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Wait, wait. I didn't put him on L-1. He already WAS at L-1.crypto wrote:
No, I didn't think you were calling for a claim. I meant that he would claim regardless of what you wanted, because it's standard procedure for a player to claim when put at L-1. Regardless of whether or not you wanted a claim, you, as one of the players putting him at L-1, would have been the reason for his imminent claimzoraster wrote:[crypto (who seems to honestly have thought I was calling for a claim, which was understandable)despite your lack of interest in lynching him. Why force a player to out his role when you don't even think he's scum? This is anti-town. Scummy? Not sure yet..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Well, I promise I didn't catch up and only then read my role PM. I'm here to play the game, and not reading a role pm is antithetical to that. Mafia relies on honesty to work (meta-honesty that is... obviously not in game honesty) If I'm scum, I might try to write my posts forgetting that I'm scum, but I would never not read my role pm.
In any case, my stance is largely the same with a few changes: Shadow is scummy for much of the same reasons as before. On concission I don't really have any new information. Simenon comes across as somewhat more town than I had previously believed.
Those were my previous top 3 that I was referring to in a previous post.
I don't believe AGM is scum. His content after he came back seem to be fairly town.
Luckay's comment about considering ythill to be so town that he's a mason is ridiculous, and I'm wondering if that's not some buddying up.
I'll be glad to see more of Glad, seems fairly townish right now, but I'll need more to tell.
RC is also starting to bother me with the really quick clip quotes. I know his style often involves more point-by-point than I ever like to do, but his seem less designed to find scum and more to seem like he's inspecting.
As for other town reads: crypto remains so. VP Baltar i'm leaning town on at the moment (as opposed to mild scum before).
Conclusion: Shadow remains my number one lynch choice, but I'd be willing to entertain discussion on Concission, RC and mayyybe Luckay..-
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The post you're referring, 479*, had this to say in addition to reference back to my previous read on Concission (where I called him scum):AGM wrote:He had just posted a breakdown in #479 and Concession was only mentioned in passing. Then two more votes come down and zoaraster is all aboard? Scummy.
I don't think I'm being inconsistent there, although I admit not much "discussion" went on.Conclusion: Shadow remains my number one lynch choice, but I'd be willing to entertain discussion on Concission, RC and mayyybe Luckay..-
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Okay. It took about half a day longer than promised, but here it is:
The RC wagon is terrible. I thought he was a little scummy before, but his responses have been anything but. I'm pretty convinced that those on his wagon are either (a) scum, (b) town too lazy to actually read the game but see RC as an easy target to take out and/or (c) getting into a huffy battle with him (i.e. GLaDOS). In any event, RC's comments are altogether too sincere for me to think he should be the lynch today.
We should not be lynching RC.
We SHOULD, however, be lynching Shadow.
VOTE: Shadow Dancer
All the wrong signals with the RC vote in Post 645. I’ve found Shadow scummy all along, but his push on RC is the worst out of everyone’s.
Luckay is starting to wear on me. I still can’t get over the gut feeling that he’s being sincere, but I think this push on Jarti and Glad as a scum pair is ridiculously early. Sure, it’s plausible, but plausible is not the same thing as convincing. And I feel like Luckay’s “certainty” that they’re both scum is driving the whole logic he feels behind each being scum individually (despite his posts otherwise)..-
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it's been over a week since you even acknowledged Shadow, VP, and that was to call him "null" in a list with everyone. It's not my fault there aren't other wagons to form if you won't even take the time to figure out whether alternate wagons are better.
Or, simpler explanation: you're scum. Possibly with Shadow, but I try not to play that game too much on D1..-
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That's fine if there actually IS one. All I see is a total lack of analysis of SD. As I stated before, Baltar has refused to even utter SD's name in the past week, much less actually consider him as possible scum worth lynching.
But whatever, if you want an inactive game of sheep because anything else is "dicking around," fine:
VOTE: Concission the better lynch of the two. I'll check back in on day 2 and see what the wise men have decreed to be the lynch possibilities..-
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RedCoyoteopens my scum reads as of now:
This is the type of thing you say when you’re really reaching. He’s voting Fate because fate is clever and whoever shot the tracker was clever? That’s pretty weak, and I suspect RC just wanted the detail of the reasoning to go unnoticed.Right now I'll tenatively vote: Fate. Glados is right about one thing. Someone had to have been either really lucky or really good at reading for PRs. Fate makes a big show about how he doesn't read anything thoroughly and works heavily on his intuition, but I know for a fact that this cat is clever. I think he saw the very thing Glados mentioned about Ythill. There are a couple of other people I think may have picked up on it as well, but I think they're much more townie sounding than Fate has been.
That said, I actually find Fate’s analysis on RC kind of underwhelming. If anything the fact that RC reads Fate as town in one instance and scum in another points me toward town trying to make sense of it all rather than inconsistent-scum. RC’s later response (Post 926) to Fate also rings a bit more true than his previous actions. So even though I remain suspicious of RC, he’s not getting my vote at the moment.
VP Baltaris scummy as all get out as well. The concission thing is done. What does Baltar really have to gain from it other than he wants to seem like he’s keep up with lynch momentum to seem townie. I don’t agree with crypto at all here: Baltar does not come across as town at all, although I’d love to hear why Baltar is “logically” town from crypto.
Almasterrounds out my top suspects. Take a look at his response to Baltar:
This seems fake to me. Maybe it’s some confirmation bias, but I read it as either him trying to interact with Baltar’s bus or trying to play the put off townie. Either way makes him scum.Excuse me, buuuut why am I actually scum? As far as I remember, you're still rolling with that, "AGM had to catch up, which means people had already made arguments he made" thing, which is really, really weak. Please update reasons for read, thanks.
The whole bolded text thing (Post 918) is particularly obnoxious. I think Almaster is pretty scummy at this point. This doesn’t feel like a town frustrated at someone pursuing him… I didn’t really the sense there was a lot of pressure on at this point. It seems like scum who’s been caught or scum who’s trying to manufacture outrage. Either way, it comes across as bogus, and that’s scummy.
--
Anyway, there we go. That’s what I’ve gotten out of the past 5 or so pages. Therefore:
VOTE: AlmasterGM.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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1. You ARE one of my top suspects, not scum WITH one of my top suspects.VP Baltar wrote:Zor, you think I'm potentially scum with either of your top suspects?
2. I don't know where in the world you got this idea. Where did I indicate you were scum with RC? The only indication of this whatsoever was trying to get a hold on AGM's reaction, and that didn't say I thought you were scum with him, just that it seemed a possible explanation of why AGM was reacting the way he was.
I'm fairly neutral leaning town on Concission. From my standpoint, concission seems resolved for the moment whatever your feeling on the matter, so let's move on to greener pastures.Also, why is "the concission thing done"? As far as I can see, nothing was resolved regarding concission. Is she a town read for you at this point?.-
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What stuff?PLUS ALL THE STUFF YOU DID YESTERDAY.
The following response may sound familiar.VP wrote:re:concission - please answer the first (and most important) question. Why has your opinion on concission changed? if I am missing something you already said about it, please point me in the right direction.
@VP- we're not lynching concission today. move on. I don't know if he is scum or not, but I'm also not concerned with it at this moment because it's not happening today..-
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Well, I've already accused him before. But in this instance it's because he's saying to Concission, "hey look, friend... you've been wrong about me being scum before, so you're probably wrong here, you know?"LuckayLuck wrote:
What prompted you to accuse VP Baltar of scumminess here?zoraster wrote:
Boy you're scummy.VP Baltar wrote:I think I figured out who Concission is possibly. -__- if I'm right, I will only say that you haven't been so good at reading me in the past..-
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I'm good with either lynch. I was waiting for SD to come on before hammering, honestly, but then people unvoted because........ i have no idea why. And while at first I thought waiting for Glados was a good idea, it's outstayed its usefulness. It is time to lynch.
The fact SD has basically tried to let suspicion die on him by avoiding posting is pretty scummy in its own right.
But here's a big question for everyone out there: Why is AGM voting for me? Is he so convinced that SD is town that he's unwilling to try and push a lynch other than his own? It's this more than anything that's keeping me from switching to SD (given what appears to be strategic lurking).
For that matter Glad and VV need to cut it out and vote for one of the two wagons..-
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The problem with this is that we essentially have to wait a day longer than normal for this to pay dividends, now that our vigilante has shot.VP Baltar wrote:I actually think it would be more informative for VV to toss the hammer since we don't know his alignment. Glados should definitely advise, but VV picking could be quite informative..-
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zing! Except we're talking about different things here. When I was pissed at VP Baltar, we had almost a full week left, not less than 2 days. Those are two very different situations to be in.Vigilante Ventriloquist wrote:
gee. I get to pick from two "Zoraster Approved" lynches. Wonderful.zoraster wrote:good god. why are you making life difficult?
What about this is so difficult? There is still plenty of time until deadline to have people move their votes..-
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humor me. when you get over this principled stand and vote someone for the deadline, AGM or SD, who are you going to pick?Vigilante Ventriloquist wrote:
Yes we do ;_;AGM wrote:I know we don't have the time to switch wagons right now.
The problem isn't that we don't have time. The problem is that everyone keeps saying we don't have time. If those people would put there votes where their mouths were instead of complaining about "OH NOES THE DEADLINE IS COMING UP", there would beplentyof time.
Pre-post edit: I thought this submitted 20 minutes ago, but it got ninja'd and I wasn't watching >.<.-
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- Location: Belmont, CA
I'm saying the value of claiming my actual role is not zero value. If someone else is the redeemed soul they SHOULD claim, then you lynch me. Then you have that ~20% chance that I'm confirmed town the next day, but this time it comes with caught scum benefits. If there's a CC but the RB isn't dead, then you have caught scum day after tomorrow, not as great but still acceptable.VP Baltar wrote:So you're saying you decided it was better to throw away any chance of having a confirmed townie because the odds of you getting roleblocked were high. Small chance of success > no chance of success.
If no one counterclaims, then I'm confirmed town anyway, just today rather than tomorrow..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
- Disorganized Crime
- Disorganized Crime
- Posts: 21680
- Joined: June 10, 2008
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Belmont, CA
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
- Disorganized Crime
- Disorganized Crime
- Posts: 21680
- Joined: June 10, 2008
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Belmont, CA
Yup. I'm going to go back and take a new look at the game as I have time. Hopefully get it done by today. If not, it'll have to wait until Sunday as I'll have no access to my computer tomorrow.Fate wrote:Now ZORASTER, now that youre confirmed town and going to die tonight, you going to CONTRIBUTEANYTHINGto your win con?.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
- Disorganized Crime
- Disorganized Crime
- Posts: 21680
- Joined: June 10, 2008
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Belmont, CA
I'm about to leave for the day, but I do want to say this (before my comprehensive post on sunday): Arguing with me or being on my wagon is not scummy in and of itself. That said, I think VV brings up a good point: if Baltar is waiting for someone to CC me, why didn't he unvote? I do not remotely buy Baltar's "I forgot SD could vote." If town, i suspect Baltar was merely too in love with his own scum read to evaluate whether he was making the right move, and thus went for the snarky "yeah, sure you're RS..."
But what's bothering me a great deal is Baltar's defense here. It's kind of blatant OMGUS:
This is ridiculous. It's not for you to say what's "more significant" or not. This looks like VPB trying hard to seem reasonable (by using words everyone ELSE should be using). To him, it should be cut and dry if he's town, obviously. His attempt to do the analysis for us, make our conclusions for us, is troubling here.VPB wrote:Regardless, yes VV was not reading the thread and was looking for cheapshots, aka accuse VPB of voting zoraster so SD could hammer when no such thing happened. So, yeah, guess we both messed up but VV is much more significant imo.
Anyway, I need to mull that over in the next day, conclusions will be made on Sunday. I'm on a mini-VLA today.Nobody should be put at L-1 until I do. If someone does that, they should be lynched promptly..-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
- Disorganized Crime
- Disorganized Crime
- Posts: 21680
- Joined: June 10, 2008
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Belmont, CA