Open 329: Mayo Clinic D3: Town WINS!

[GreyICE]

Not my first Mayo Clinic, there's some basics we need to look at here.

1) Vigilante Claiming

Vigilante claiming is fairly fucking pro-town. Vigilantes should be fairly confirmed town quickly, and with the number of doctors we have, it becomes very easy to ensure that the Vigs are protected under 1-2 protects each night without hurting town coverage (6 doctors).

2) Vigilante Target Calling

The vigs calling 3-4 targets should create a nasty scatter pattern free of town doctor protects. Survivors in scatter patterns are bad news, obv. This ensures distinct lack of town doctorage getting in the way of our vigs.

I expect these to be fairly noncontroversial, and carried out shortly.

[GreyICE]

Not really, because the vigs should claim. If you're not a vig, you can go fly a kite, glowball.

We're not having more vig shots hit town protects and other ridiculous nonsense like the last mayo clinic I had to sort out.

[GreyICE]

It's not a knitting circle.

Vigs, claim. We'll organize doctor protects.

Glowball has claimed non-vig.

[GreyICE]

Popcorn style very solid.

I am a doctor

Popcorn to Neil1113

[GreyICE]

vote: Neil1113

Pure fear mongering. What's scum going to do? Roleblock?

Town weapons are numbers and organization. Not secrecy and lies.

[GreyICE]

Seriously, if someone counterclaims a vig after not claiming here, we lynch em so it don't really matter.

[GreyICE]

This is an open.

This is an open where it's pro-town to mass claim.

The benefit of doing so is to get confirmed town and prevent town from blocking vig shots.

There's no protown motive to deconfirm two confirmed town after several days have passed. Period.

Not claiming means your claim is doctor. PERIOD.

[GreyICE]

Oh whatever.

Vote: Glowball

This shit goes away when he does? Cool.

[GreyICE]

I don't really care

[GreyICE]

Also, yeah I read Vitamin's post and I wish he stuck to his guns. Mafia is mafia for a reason, I came to play not be ridiculous. YES there is a lot of killing, but I joined because I liked the set up. I am not refusing to play, I am just refusing to claim which isn't against my win con.

then go play Newbie if yo udon't liek that different roles force the game to be played in different ways.

Mafia is Mafia? Then go play some cop+doc+JK+town mafia, and you'll play the game you are wanting to play.

Also no one is forcing you to play the game like this. I love new roles, and I love different roles but it's no fun if you guys are too scared/lazy to see how it plays out.

Also Glowball: I've seen how this plays out. Right here:

1. MrBump
2. Rain
3. Chocolate Cake
4. andrew94
5. parknourie
6. vatesi Empking
7. Kagetora
8. wasamasas DLG
9. Klazam
10.

wizrak

Magnetic
11.

aaah400

GreyICE
12. evilpacman18

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=16460

Role analysis broke the entire game, which was the only reason we won.

Trying to do pure reads resulted in this:
parknourie, Doctor, lynched Day 1.
DLG, Doctor, killed Night 1.
Kagetora, Vigilante, lynched Day 2.
Klazam, Doctor, killed Night 2.
------------- (Role analysis starts)
andrew94, Mafia Doctor, lynched Day 3.
Chocolate Cake, Doctor, killed Night 3.
Rain, Mafia Goon, killed Night 3.
MrBump, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 4.
evilpacman18, Serial Killer, lynched Day 5.

[GreyICE]

You mean maybe instead of using every tool available to us we should use half the tools available and hope it's enough?

You do realize that there's 4 kills each night, right? That with optimally bad actions for the town, this setup can end in a town loss Night 2, right? That even if you lynch scum days 1 and 2, town loss can STILL OCCUR WITH NO TOWN LYNCHES right?

This setup does not work like you think it does. Lynching scum is not enough.

I'm tired of indulging whatever little kick you're on. You don't want to have to claim your action every night, well fine. We lynch you, and that way you don't have to keep track of your fakeclaims.

[GreyICE]

...

Seriously, why did you join a setup with 8 townies, where 4 can die in one night and it takes 3 scum lynches to remove a night kill if you didn't want a night action heavy game?

There's about a thousand setups where you don't have to worry about them. In the queue right now there's True Love, where there isn't even a night kill, there's C-14, with 3 night actions total, there's friends and enemies with 1 night action.

You join Mayo clinic, a game with 11 night actions in 12 players, and you expect to have a town victory without discussing night actions?

WHAT?

[GreyICE]

I'm trying to determine whether this is misguided town, or panicking scum.

I'm leaning latter from the way the theory discussion degenerates into insults every time you don't have a way to continue.

[GreyICE]

fair enough.

Lets finish claim then lynch glowball.

[GreyICE]

Vig shot.

If he's town he at least won't be stupid enough to do things like doctor protect vig shots, while I have no idea what glowball will do.

[GreyICE]

Can you just replace out please?

[GreyICE]

You're not playing, you're sitting there whining that the best way to win isn't the right way to play for some reason or another you can't articulate without developing Tourettes syndrome.

[GreyICE]

I want you to do BOTH.

Do I have any confidence if you're town that you won't do something insanely anti-town like doctor the vigilante shot?

Do I have any confidence if you're a vig you won't do something insanely stupid like not counterclaim when there's two claimed vigs?

No.

And really, this isn't making me think town at all, this is making me think inexperienced scum who are scared of being locked into impossible claims.

[GreyICE]

Okay, I thought you settled on lynching me? What is the problem then?

We have a claims process to work out here.

You go sit in the corner.

[GreyICE]

Vote: Neil1113

Neil's the scum hiding behind Glowball's dumb. He's better than this.

How do the scum intend to take out the vig?

We put two doctors on him. It's this easy:

List of doctors

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Original Roll String: 2d10

2 10-Sided Dice: (6, 4) = 10

[GreyICE]

oh look, two doctors randomly selected, scum can't kill our vig unless either BOTH 'doctors' assigned to the vig is scum, or at least one is scum AND the SK PLUS the mafia shoot the vig.

And if that happens, we have sooo much scum sitting there that random.org handed us pure win.

Neil is deliberately trying to avoid claiming and hoping we won't notice.

[GreyICE]

The 'plan' is fairly simple.

1) Vigs claim. 2 confirmed town. Lynch pool 10
2) 10 doctors. We pick one to lynch.
3) Random.org rolls as follows:
3a) First roll: Doctor protects Vig 1
3b) Second roll: Doctor protects Vig 2
3c) Third roll: Doctor protects vig 1 OR vig 2
4) We pick our next biggest/two biggest suspects. No one protects them.
5) All doctors remaining pick from pool of non-Vig, non-Vig target players.

Maximizes doctor spread to maximize protects. Virtually guarantees vig survival with very minimal effort.

Survival in the 'no town protects them' is not good. I guess the mafia doctor could protect town to waste a lynch, but... hey mafia doctor, go ahead. There's still an SK out there, he's not aiming for the guys the vigs are shooting, is he? Catch!

[GreyICE]

I'd rather have two targets than one at the moment.

Shot still kills mafia doctor, protect or no, and I'd rather have two shots to find the serial killer than one.

[GreyICE]

Again, Mafia doctor risks losing non-vig shot scum to the SK if he does that, since he'd be relying solely on townies to protect all 3 mafia members. And since the SK won't be shooting either vig shot (or the vigs, if he has half a brain cell) then if there's no mafia in the shooting gallery, 3/8 of his targets are scum. And for all the mafia knows, he might be one, so it's 3/7. That's some nice stones on the gambling they have going.

[GreyICE]

No, lets stop for one second.

This is a line

===========================================================================

Neil and Glowball, no one is claiming until you post under this line. If any post you make after you cross this line does not include a claim, your claim is doctor. We are NOT having the fun of deconfirming town because of your damn ego trips, you are NOT a vigilante if you do not claim so.

[GreyICE]

Okay, Glowball claims doctor.

Waiting on Neil.

[GreyICE]

Neil claims doctor.

We can move on now.

[GreyICE]

Doctors

GreyICE
Marucha
Izak
Glowball
Neil

Vigs

BBMolla


Tomith is up next

[GreyICE]

And Neil, my vote is to lynch you because I don't believe you're a doctor OR a vig.

I'm just locking you down on the here and now. Wanna try and counterclaim our vigs? Tough shit boy, doesn't work that way.

[GreyICE]

Unclaimed

2. Mega
4. PiggyGal15
7. VitaminR
8. Thomith
9. Maruchan
10. Quaroath
12. whispersilk

[GreyICE]

Neil, this plan is working just fine.

I get it, your scumteam doesn't like that.

We put the plan on hold so I could lock down your stupid scumbag ass so there's no debate if you decide to claim vig before you're lynched today.

Your complaint was that this doesn't work if EVERY PLAYER doesn't agree. Well no, it works just fine if a few scum decide to be obstructionist. We're trying to save town. You? You can die here.

[GreyICE]

Oh my bad. C/P error

6 more then.

[GreyICE]

See you aren't even noticing that Vitamin said he'd rather just scumhunt regularly. GreyICE get off of your pedestal.. that's at least 3 people not participating.

NINJA'D
but yeah....

Have you ever asked me any questions about why this is ideal for the setup?

Have you or Neil ever asked to see the math?

I was in the last quack multiball, replaces in and we lynched scum for 3 days because I broke the claims and actions - with scumhunting too.

This can't help to bring to mind an image of you as a British redcoat standing in a field gun raised, ready to shoot others standing in a straight line and screaming that it's not sporting to wear dark colors and shoot from the woods. Maybe this is American of me, but we call the redcoats morons.

Regardless, already lost one open because dumb town couldn't follow orders of confirmed town, you're a liability and if you're insistent on being that, with no clear on you, we kill you.

Neil is the scum hiding behind your idea of how to 'sportingly' play mafia. No, sorry, it's play to win, and I'd rather win 'dirty' then lose 'with honor.'

[GreyICE]

Well usually you don't discuss anything during a popcorn claim, but usually a popcorn claim doesn't take a zillion years thanks to reactionary nitwits.

Plus side if either of them are around tomorrow we don't have to include them on the popcorn claim.

[GreyICE]

Doctors

GreyICE
Marucha
Izak
Glowball
Neil
Maruchan

Vigs

BBMolla

There are 6 town docs, and

I am a town doctor.

One of those 6 doc claims is false.

No wai, really?

[GreyICE]

Now can we please not have any more out of order claims?

[GreyICE]

Why bother? We can let their love blossom so nicely in the dead thread

[GreyICE]

Something I'm not quite understanding. If I'm scum, why would I be outspoken against the plan? Couldn't I just run along and sheep the docs?

1) Confirmed town sucks
2) There is a stage 2 and you know it...

But hey, we've descended into WIFOM over whether or not you'd be acting this scummy if you were scum on the pressure of one vote.

Yeah, you die.

[GreyICE]

Glowball, if you counterclaim anyone after refusing to claim, I will vote for you dead.

It is policy at that point.

[GreyICE]

Well just piggy now.

[GreyICE]

Dont see the big deal, glowball. Weve got the wagon off confirmed town, and now we can lynch someone who has a chance of flipping scum, unless piggy counters.

Once piggy posts, we can make sure that Quar and BB are doctor protected.

[GreyICE]

Lemme get to my real comp but I plan to led dice tags do heavy lifting.

Hard to cheat random.

Quar votes should end, it's not possible to lynch an uncountered vig in this setup.

[GreyICE]

No plans until glowball replacement lands actually.

Unless glow wants to change her derping mind on obvderping which she might if she really does have brains.

Willing to play with you glow, anytime you want to play.

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

Unvote

God glowball...

[GreyICE]

UNVOTE: glowball
VOTE: neil1113

On what grounds?

UR OBVSCUM SHUDDUP

[GreyICE]

-_-

Are you actually going to start playing the game then?

[GreyICE]

I've been through two different Quack Multiballs' and a Mayo clinic and every time night actions were crucial for catching scum and avoiding town deaths.

You don't want to worry about that part of the game? Fine! I don't think it shoud consume the game either either, which is why I want to implement a plan with a minimum of fuss, a process you've turned into a screaming mess where we all have to pay attention to Glowball, where you claim that you panic and lie when you're asked to tell the town the truth (as town...) that you say the plan has failed because you won't help it succeed in any way, where you pitch a fit about how we're going to lose the game because apparently you have some psychological issue where you can't tell the goddamn players in the goddamn game any piece of information without running around and screaming.

Fuck your ego, glowball. It's not helping us.

So if you're going to stay in this fucking game, buckle the fuck down, break your fucking little need to be the center of attention, and start playing. It's easy, all you have to do is tell us who you protect each night, unless you're part of a night action plan at which point you do what the plan says. You can contribute to the plan, you can make suggestions, you can criticize, but sitting there, rocking back and forth and moaning that we're all going to lose is USELESS.

[GreyICE]

No, glowball, that's the fucking truth. It's not arrogant. It's honest. It's a description of what you've done this game. You've sat there, thrown a fit, predicted doom and gloom, and none of it has come true.

Look at all of this crap.

OKay so we keep mixing plans up...

FIRST you want the vigs to claim and you are living in lala land if you think that you'll get only 2 vig claims.
THEN you say that if you get more claims then there can be a vig chain of them shooting each other to find the real ones, BUT at the same time you want to lynch me and VIG Neil... you can only shoot one person and the fact that you now have to turn 2 of your available kills towards us allows scum some wiggle room. Your plan doesn't work missing two people or at least I haven't seen you account for all of that.

Well, welcome to la la land, Glowball, 'cause we have two vig claims. Bam, confirmed town.

Go through your own ISO, see all the wonderful panicky bullcrap you've thrown about on a plan that is WORKING.

All we've asked of you, the ONLY thing is that if you want to ignore night actions and focus on day play is that you give us the tools and then IGNORE NIGHT ACTIONS AND FOCUS ON DAYPLAY.

No one GIVES A FUCKING DAMN if you don't want to speculate on best methods of coordinating night actions. We just want you to follow the plan.

We are trying to work with you and you are fucking pitching a fucking temper tantrum and then saying you don't want to be the center of attention.

Well fuck that.

Yes, I want a vig to shoot you tonight, and yes I consider it protown. Go read the last Quack Multiball if you want to see why, Izzy decided to doctor protect scum over OBVIOUS FUCKNIG TOWN thus costing the town the game. The town would have literally won if her player slot was DEAD. I am NOT leaving another player alive who does things like doctor protect SCUM over TOWN rather than follow basic, simple instructions.

So when I'm asking you are you playing the game, I'm asking you honestly. Are you playing the game? Or are you going to keep this shit up because so help me god I would rather lynch you, playing like you are, when you're likely town than lynch someone whose likely scum but WON'T LOSE THE TOWN THE GAME IF THEY'RE TOWN.

[GreyICE]

I'm sorry, is there a polite way to say that softclaiming vig every 15 seconds without hardclaiming it when it is IMPOSSIBLE to lynch a vig claim that is uncounterclaimed in an open setup is entering wild new territories on the far left of the bellcurve?

Also I'll use whatever words I fucking well please.

[GreyICE]

Fuck this.

Quaroath is still obviously scum.

Glowball wont play the fucking game and let me lynch scum.

vote: glowball

Moderator won't lie about your role, the we can finally get quaroath.

I would have preferred to do this differently but I will trade one fucking useless townie for one scumbag.

[GreyICE]

Quaroath is scum, the sk doesn't claim vig you nitwit.

He has to SURVIVE. Scum can trade a member for the pleasure of reconfirming the vigs. SK can't trade shit, stop coaching Quar.

Also meta...

[GreyICE]

*snort*

Neil, honey, I've played with you before.

It's nice to see you stepping up to the batting cage, but your hits are all foul. You're obvious scum~

The best part is that you're reasonably decent yet you fucked up.

When I was considering lynching Quar, I had a plan. Or, two of them. One if he was mafia goon (double up). And one

if he was Mafia Doctor

. That one has two targets. All survivors are SKs, all goons die.

You don't have a plan for me flipping mafia doctor. You refer to him as being alive if you lynch me.

It's knowledge town doesn't have... But you do, neil. Scumslip - the revelation of the possession of knowledge that town cannot have. I guess you didn't read Brotherhood

that

well.

Did the future play out before you when I showed I knew it wax Quar? Quar dead, you dead... Does it even matter if the doctor is alive? No. No, no, no, and then your little friend has to live all alone in a town full of big bad wolves and a hungry shark, lurking below.

Panic, Neil? Want your leadership back? Did a plan for you to win play out? Of course it did, you're smart.

And Neil? That plan didn't involve lynching he mafia doctor day 1. You knew he'd be alive in your plan.

Scumslip Neil, scumslip.

vote:Neil 1113

[GreyICE]

but one death is more pro-town than the others. and that involves if you are a vig, claiming vig

what? I AM GOING TO DIE EITHER WAY. I tried to talk to people and that is what they told me.

Psssh

Come on Glowball, I've been begging you to claim for pages and pages. THE SCUM DON'T HAVE DAYTALK. ONE of them was going to fall for the bait with you pitching a fit, ONE of them was not going to be reading the thread well enough to know you claimed vig before any other player claimed (same as last Mayo clinic... vigs are so bloody obvious), ONE of them was going to see the allure of being confirmed town and fall for it. Look at Quaroath's ISO, last person to claim, no claimed vigs, I'm saying I'll lynch you if you counterclaim him, pressure building on him, votes on him... OF COURSE HE CLAIMS VIG.

I just wanted you to develop a set of balls and counterclaim him then and there, and tell me to go fuck myself if I tried to lynch you, there was still scum in our 'confirmed town.' Then I would have

KNOWN

you were the vig, trying to trade your life to help the town. As is, I'm still trapped at 75% on you being a vig, but I'll play those odds.

No daytalk. Someone is going to bite.

And look, Neil's been coasting along, biting his nails. Been metaing me, Neil? See this game?

Of course you did. It's the first thing anyone would ever check, especially with me mentioning it and all.

parknourie,

Doctor

, lynched Day 1.

DLG,

Doctor

, killed Night 1.

Kagetora,

Vigilante

, lynched Day 2.

Klazam,

Doctor

, killed Night 2.

-------------------------------------

andrew94,

Mafia Doctor

, lynched Day 3.

Chocolate Cake,

Doctor

, killed Night 3.

Rain,

Mafia Goon

, killed Night 3.

MrBump,

Mafia Goon

, lynched Day 4.

evilpacman18,

Serial Killer

, lynched Day 5.

Kinda a nasty 180 lying in there, isn't there? I replaced in that game.

Guess which day? ^-^

Oh wait, you know, don't you.

And here I am, not telling you the night action plan. Is this setup balanced? Is it actually broken? What's the optimal scum play? What's the optimal town play? I'm the only player who has ever done this before, and the game went from 4 living town versus 4 living scum to 3 living town and 4 dead scum, in three days. Scum had a whole 5 kills in that time, and managed to off 1 townie.

And how did they get locked in and die? Andrew, claiming to fire a shot on town that never hit. Bump, shot by a vigilante, unprotected, failing to die. Rain? Perfect claims, perfect play, shot to death by the Serial Killer because he needed to hit town. Pacman, shot by the remaining vigilante night 4 and not dying, sitting there, disgusted, self-voting rather than waiting for the last town player to show up and give him the third vote needed to lynch.

Yeah, claiming actions didn't help scum much. So you oppose it.

Buuuuttt there's more. Glowball panics, won't claim. We head to head. Glowball flails. Quaroath steps in, and instead of being obv day 1 lynch, is confirmed town.

You posted after the claim was done. I let you post twice. Here they are:

UNVOTE: glowball
VOTE: neil1113

On what grounds?

UNVOTE: glowball
VOTE: neil1113

On what grounds?

UR OBVSCUM SHUDDUP

Says a VI and.. well.. you? Lol I told you I welcomed a case. To bad you'll be saddened by my flip. Though I'm fairly certain you're scum. But I'll prove that in a bit. Go ahead and post your "lol, scum calling me scum because I caught them, and now your doing the i'll post the case later crap. obvscum!!! im so cool so I use a lot of !!!! to prove my point!" Get it over with. Soon you'll be lynched, so either way go ahead and make your case on me now, or continue your nonsensical posting and accusations that cannot be proven nor dis-proven, considering they are non-existent.

Then I dropped the bomb. The bomb that ends your scumteam. Right here:

Quaroath is still obviously scum.

The panic set in, Neil? Of course it did. Your very next post, the very next post in the thread, damage control goes off on all thrusters.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p3391533

Neil didn't claim until the end, knowing we cannot have two confirmed vigilantes. And Neil CANNOT let us lynch Quaroath, CANNOT let us have two confirmed vigilantes, CANNOT win the game against that. Fucking hell, we don't even need to scumhunt if we get another scum after that, as long as the two vigilantes live anyone who isn't a vigilante isn't confirmed town and thus worth shooting, and the mafia can't win in that state (you can't exactly endgame two vigilantes with one scum, and unlike the SK, you aren't immune to their bullets).

Damage control, metaing me, creating a bullshit case, and look how carefully done, how clearly he shows off he's scum.

I'm a Doctor. And I'm more then willing to prove it, if you guys seriously don't believe me. I honestly thought / think that Glow is a Vig. Therefore I'm pretty confident that one of BBMolla or Quaroth is against the town - oriented. I wouldn't be surprised if it's BBMolla and he came up with the plan so that he gave himself a position to hide behind.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if BBMolla is the SK. However, I believe when we pressure him or Quaroth, whichever is the SK, they'll admit to it and we can use them for our advantage.

At least to eliminate scum. We could potentially have 3 kills a night if we do this.

Look at that. BBMolla was practically DRIPPING with the desire to be confirmed town, to show off his shiny gun, to shoot scum. He was like a happy puppy. Mislynch BBMolla over that lurking lump Quaroath? Oh my lord, how the hell will you ever do that? Stygian tasks? That doesn't even begin to describe it. Backup plan (no daytalk!) - Quaroath, read your scumbuddy, claim SK if it comes to that. We'll try and 'use the SK.'

Quaroath is scum, the sk doesn't claim vig you nitwit.

He has to SURVIVE. Scum can trade a member for the pleasure of reconfirming the vigs. SK can't trade shit, stop coaching Quar.

Shot down in FLAMES. Of course the SK doesn't claim vig. If scum goes after the SK and sees two vig claims and decides to deconfirm town and then a FOURTH vig claims the fact that there's 2 vigs, a scum, and the serial killer in that 4 man group becomes HYPER obvious. SK can't survive that. Of course he's realized that by now, so he's backtracked like fuck away from that insane idea.


And then... you slip. Such a beautiful, wonderful scumslip that I'm going to frame it.

And to address this, SK claim amongst the Vigs would be perfect. SK can't be killed, and Vig's won't be lynched. It's almost the perfect hiding spot. If I'm wrong about you, I'm pretty sure the SK would be more likely to hide among the Vigs then scum. Because once the night kills begin and the Vigs try to kill themselves (like someone recommended they do if there are more than two vig claims... ugh) the scum would die instantly despite the one Mafia Roleblocker.

Set two people to kill one person, and see the flip.

If they are a vig, then we have a 50/50 chance to lynch the right suspect the following day. At least, I think that's how that plan went. However I do think you're a foolish scum player, and a bad one at that (as proven by your... giggle giggle... meta) so I wouldn't be surprised if you'd think of doing something like hiding among the Vigs.

But... you're voting to lynch me and you say I'm probably not the SK. Giving me, roughly, a 33% chance to be the mafia doctor, yes?

AND YET YOUR PLAN ASSUMES THE MAFIA DOCTOR TO BE ALIVE NIGHT 1!

My plan, Neil? There's no real breaking strategies here. There's a few ways to gain percentage points for the town. I like random selection, it makes scum shy away from doing anything that outs them. Three doctor claims on the vigs>Four. Yes, that leaves the possibility that both one of the doctor claims and the 50/50 doctor are mafia, and they can shoot a vig unopposed, but that lets us trade one vig for one certain scum and one probable scum (unless the SK wants to try his hand at shooting vigilantes and hope the mafia not only does the same but SHOOTS THE SAME VIGILANTE HE DOES). That's called a sexy trade no matter how you cut it.

And scattering more doctor protects over the town is all good.

But this isn't really a breaking strategy, is it? Your panic? Your scumslip? You tying yourself to Quaroath?

That's a breaking strategy.

Bad scumbuddy, bad.

[GreyICE]

Ha!

Okay, not bad, glowball, I'll give you that one.

Neil needs to go like fire.

[GreyICE]

I still think the logic of 3 players on the vigs is fairly solid. However, it's probably not bad to compromise, and have a fourth player flip a coin, and heads do a vig, tails do another player.

Just another layer of randomness for the scum to shoot around.

Unless the SK really feels like losing, he's not going to be shooting vigs since he needs PLAYERS to die and doesn't really care about their alignment. Shooting players who are very unlikely to die is just a low EV play for any serial killer, anywhere.

Plans then:

Neil Flips Mafia Goon:

Two players on our nominated vig target. Scum have too much to gain by stalling us out and making us lynch town with the doctor, since they're a smaller-profile team anyway against the SK, who will be aiming for town after a day 1 scumlynch.

Neil Flips Mafia Doctor:

Two targets. We should nominate a second target, and no one protects #2 if Neil is scumdoc.

Neil Flips Town:

*sigh* Guess we're back to the one target plan. I find this unlikely.

Neil Flips SK (also called LOLWUT plan):

Scum will obviously protect a townie if they can, to make us mislynch, so we do 2 on 1.

Nominations for vig targets:

Whispersilk (Oh this ISO)
Mega (aka isn't he replaced yet?)
Maruchan (I have so many butterflies in my stomach over his posts... they don't read town)

I could buy a Thomith shot, it's not bad at all.

Random people I don't want shot despite there being good reasons:

PiggyGal15 (my random completely unjustified gut town read off the 8 short posts)

[GreyICE]

Note: I insist that a number of random doctor protects need to occur.

All a 100% night action plan does is let scum shoot unprotected people.

Everyone not on a vig should protect whoever they want.

[GreyICE]

Oh lawd... Neil... a fake bah post? Really?

Izak, Grey, Glowball, BBmolla and Thomith.

And you fake bah post?

Thomith even called it L-2 in his post.

ROFLMAO

NO

[GreyICE]

UNVOTE: VOTE: Neil
His metaing grey seems scummy, i really dont see town motivation between voting someone as scum for meta only, and greys wall convinced me. I also don't see how you can prove you are a doctor when there are 6 (7 if you count scum doc) flying about.

L-2

Thank you glow for claiming, so i take it quar and bb are clear.

L-2

WELL MY FIRST THOUGHT IS "WHOOPS NEIL REALLY THOUGHT HE WAS HAMMERED."

GUESS IT'S TIME TO UNVOTE

NOT

[GreyICE]

If we're doubling up (which, unless Neil is Mafia Doctor, we should be) we have to coordinate.

I guess mega hasn't really claimed (TBH I didn't realize he was in the game) so we should technically wait for that, but I have no idea what I'd do if he counterclaimed someone on his second post of the game. Like... just lol?

The random of the 3 doctors is nice because even if the 50/50 doctor can just claim to protect the one who didn't die, the doctor who should have been protecting the dead vig is still scum.

That essentially trades one vig for one scum, which is a fine trade. Especially since they're gambling. Remember, if neil flips, it's hella unlikely that BOTH remaining mafia got RNGed into the NA plan (probably on the order of 6-8%). And again, the SK WILL NOT kill the vig he's supposed to be protecting (getting lynched is an AUTOLOSS for the SK). I'd rather have the extra doctor on the town.

Pedit: That plan is dead.

[GreyICE]

1. Glowball
2. Mega*
3. GreyICE
4. PiggyGal15
5. izakthegoomba
6. VitaminR
7. Thomith
8. Maruchan
9. whispersilk

[roll]2d9[/roll]

[roll]1d9[/roll]

[GreyICE]

bah

Original Roll String: 2d9

2 9-Sided Dice: (9, 4) = 13

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (7) = 7

[GreyICE]

Whispersilk on BB
Piggy on Quar
Thomith 50/50

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

[GreyICE]

nope

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[GreyICE]

...

Well, why not.

Mega flips a coin, 50% he chooses a vig to protect, 50% he chooses a doctor.

Everyone else picks players from the pool of 9 they want to live.

I think the chances of a dead vig are minimal, and that really has the most doctors on the town.

[GreyICE]

No doc train then?

At the moment, I don't actually think deaths are pro-town. The biggest problem with this setup is the speed at which the town can lose players. That could change rapidly if we, say, get the mafia doctor or SK, but there's too much scum that doesn't die at night.

Any round robin that's sane involves our 'not being protected' candidates protecting the vigs, or modifying the round robin so that it becomes much worse.

[GreyICE]

did it work for bump N?

[GreyICE]

Vig vote: whispersilk

Let's save him some time.

[GreyICE]

We totally should vig complete lurkers over scummy people, totally would work love the logic grey.

Always what I like to do with vigs. Scummy high volume players are for the lynchings. Lurkers who post jack are for bullets - we wont learn anything when we lynch them anyway. WS is up to 7 whole posts, and zero content. Let's save him some trouble.

Vig vote remains.

PEDIT: CALLED IT.

[GreyICE]

Die.

[GreyICE]

Die.

You'd rather me die, then be useful to the town? THAT seems Anti-Town to me?

Oh ha ha like you're really the sk.

Bump did the same thing last game.

Die scum die.

[GreyICE]

By the by, if he flips doctor, 9mm of lead for thomith, BB?

[GreyICE]

'cause his win condition now involves shooting as many town as possible if it's true, and it's better than likely he's fakeclaiming scum?

Lynching SK on day 1 is awesome. That gives 2 pro-town kills and the lynch versus 1 anti-town kill.

Of course we lynch him.

No directing SK claims, you kill em.

[GreyICE]

He doesn't have to help us.

And mafia don't have to kill for us, they just avoid the lynch one day.

A scum lynch day 1 here is excellent. Any flavor of scum. We have two confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum, this is an excellent day 1, lets not derp it up.

[GreyICE]

Obviously it's pro-scum to make us lynch you on day 2 rather than day 1 when we have a lower shot of getting one of your buddies on day 1.

This isn't even the first SK claim I've seen out of scum. Or the second (VezokPiraka and Mr. Bump so far). Vezok did it on day 1, with the same logic here (use me to help the town!).

[GreyICE]

You are scum! YOU'VE JUST CLAIMED TO HAVE A WIN CONDITION THAT OPPOSES THE TOWN.

I'm not using the shots that should be ending a lurker like whispersilk on you. I'll use a lynch on you because by your OWN CLAIM that needs to happen unless the town wants to lose.

[GreyICE]

You know, I had a response written up, but then I realized I'm responding to someone who asked why any townie would want to lynch someone if they thought that the player had a win condition that PREVENTED THE TOWN FROM WINNING.

[GreyICE]

Neil, I understand the strategy, I really do. You drag the other player into a 1v1 and then both of you coming out looking more scummy, which is a net win if you're already up shit creek since hey, maybe the town will make a last second dive for the idiot ball. And you want me in that 1v1.

But Neil, your entire premise is that lynching the Serial Killer is antitown.

You can't play that game if your first move is to checkmate your own king.

[GreyICE]

This is fucktarded.

We lynch the claimed serial killer today.

Period.

He. Claimed. Scum.

We have two confirmed vigs, we do NOT need a third shot, and the mafia have a lot to gain out of claiming serial killer - retards not lynching them.

We kill him. Today.

[GreyICE]

*twitch*

CAUSE HIS WIN CONDITION DOESN'T RELY ON HIM LIVING GUYS.

SK THROWS HIMSELF OUT THERE TO TRY AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE TOWN WHY? IT'S NOT LIKE HE WANTS IT, MAFIA SHOOTING HIM MEAN MAFIA LEARN WHO HE IS JESUS

SKS LIKE TO LURK AND OTHERWISE FLY UNDER THE RADAR

SK HAS NO MOTIVE NOT TO IMMEDIATELY CLAIM DOCTOR, HE'S NOT COUNTERCLAIMING A VIG.

NEIL IS OBVMAFIA JEESSSSSSUUUSSSSSSS

[GreyICE]

FUCKING HELL GREY, NEIL CAN BENEFIT TOWN, IF HE IS SCUM WE GET TO DIRECT THE MAFIAS KILL, IF HE IS SK WE DIRECT HIS KILL, IF HIS KILL DOESNT GO THROUGH WE LYNCH HIM IMMEDIATELY, IT IS LIKE GETTING A 3RD SHOT AND I SEE NO TOWN MOTIVATION FOR TURNING IT DOWN
VOTE: GREY

How will lynching him tomorrow rather than today benefit the town?

I thought the reason we had vigs double up in this setup is the mafia doctor can ensure the kill doesn't go through.

What's the advantage to having an SK so the vigs can... what? Triple up?

There's so fucking much advantage to being lynched on day 2 rather than day 1 for any member of the mafia. The chances of a mislynch on day 1 are MUCH higher.

[GreyICE]

I lulzed pretty hard at that flavour

Divided on this issue tbqh

Just answer my questions to yourself then.

The mafia doctor can prevent one kill. Not two. What's the advantage to having a third kill?

Now, what's the odds that scum would see the SK claim as a way to live one more day?

Lynches on day 2 have better odds of hitting scum than lynches on day 1. Neil trading a day 1 lynch for a day 2 lynch is pretty hax for a soon-to-be-dead scum team member.

He was at L-2 when he pulled that amazing 'oh golly gee I was hammered' stunt, his chances of survival were 'claim serial killer.' It's pro-mafia to claim serial killer.

And he wants us to use our shots to verify this? Why? An SK is the only scum in the entire game who CANNOT be killed by two vig shots. Even if he were the SK, I'd rather try and hit mafia scum, because we HAVE to lynch him, period.

As for day 1 SK lynches being pro-town: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=17846

Scum really felt the painful lack of velocity from losing the extra shot.

[GreyICE]

We can direct his kill, giving us a 3rd vig why the hell don't you want that? Oh i know why because you are scummy scummy scum scum.
Lynch. Grey. Today.
We direct his kill, if it doesn't go through or someone else dies he dies that day after we structure the plan for the night, at lylo he dies, no exception.
we can use him to confirm a kill by having a 3rd vig shot on someone, so he benefits town greatly, plus we dont need to pretect him as if he is a SK he is nightkill immune and if he is scum he is unlikely to die unless the real SK kills him.

Hey Thomith, did you answer my questions?

No? Not surprised. They're rather a bit of a stumper.

[GreyICE]

one more

town

vig kill stopped. Lovely.

[GreyICE]

UNVOTE: neil1113

I don't want to be part of this wagon. Under other circumstances I might have supported it, but GreyICE's extreme scumminess overrides it. Nothing he's said works how he wants us to think it does, his logic is flawed, his questions are leading, and his random outbursts are causing us massive problems.

VOTE: GreyICE

Okay Izak, since you're not scum.

Name three things that don't work like I say they do.

Chop chop, Izak.


I'll make you a deal Izak. He flips SK, vig me. He flips mafia goon, we take out you. He flips mafia doctor, we take out you a thomith.

How does this sound, Izak?

[GreyICE]

I still prefer randomness. We're never going to prevent a scum kill that way, and if Neil isn't the SK (likely) then we're looking at 2-3 dead town tomorrow.

That's not where I want to be.

Let doctors protect as they wish

[GreyICE]

2 scum shots. I still don't believe Neil is flipping SK.

[GreyICE]

2 scum shots. I still don't believe Neil is flipping SK.

Okay, well we are looking at more than one death tomorrow. Although I get why you want the protects random, that way they don't know who to pick, but I think it's fairly obvious who people will choose to protect all they have to do is aim for the inactive or scummiest or less noticed of the group.

Which people may choose to protect because they guess enough people will be on the more active members.

The point is there's odds. They're less than 100%. A train has 100% odds of town deaths.

[GreyICE]

Townsfolk: Anyone who resists my plan is obv scum.

Only if it involves you dying.

[GreyICE]

Scum are in Izak, Thomith, Whispersilk, with a nod to VitaminR.

[GreyICE]

Also Maruchan is rubbing me REALLY wrong. Which probably means he's scum

[GreyICE]

By the by, why are the non-confirmeds setting up the night action plans?

Because it's funny to let scum set them up?

If I die tonight, you morons better make sure BB sets up every night action plan. One of the players whose setting them up so carefully is slotting their scumbuddies exactly where they want them. My bet is Izak.

[GreyICE]

Which is why we aren't listening to izak, and I am not listening to you. You already got this whole mass claim thing your way, and Neil is getting lynched. IF the plan backfires then either you win as scum or it's a big I told you so to everyone who jumped on board and decides to listen. I've basically given this game to the universe it is what it is... let's just hope for the best and get this over with

There's no BACKFIRE. Lynching the SK is something the town needs to do anyway.

This entire incident has me rolling my eyes so hard. Lessee, 6 doctors, 2 vigs is the town. Mislynching town is fine, but somehow if he's an SK rather than scum, lynching the fucking SERIAL KILLER is a disaster of epic proportions.

He has to be scum, because there is no fucking way that there are this many townies rallying to the defense of the SK.

[GreyICE]

Also if he flips scum and any townie shoots me, I will laugh in your face. Repeatedly.

I mean not that I won't laugh anyway (oh no, he must be scum, he wants to lynch the claimed SK, how anti-town of him) but that'll be special.

[GreyICE]

FYI, if Neil flips SK, after I flip doctor, Izak and Maruchan loooooooved my 1v1 idea. I still think Neil is scum, but if he is actually SK, well, scum will know that.

[GreyICE]

Nah, because you don't think I'm scum. You've already claimed it, Izak. Were I scum, I'd know if Neil were scum, and thus I'd only make the bet were you to die 100%.

The bet was only to see if you'd jump at it ^-^

Vig Izak if Neil flips SK, vig Thomith if Neil flips mafia. Easy as that.

[GreyICE]

Townsfolk: Anyone who resists my plan is obv scum.

Only if it involves you dying.

Really, saying shit like this just makes you look like scum. I'm one of the towniest people in this game. I'm so towny that I drew up a plan that places me in one of only two positions that the scum can take out if the plan goes ahead. I'm willing to die to see my plan go into action and for the vigs to find the goons.

Why do I deserve to die?

Also, why have you ignored my plan?... I asked you for your opinion of it due to the fact I had you in the other vig protect slot.

No, Whispersilk, it's because you're an unconfirmed player trying to make a night action plan OVER TOP that of CONFIRMED TOWN.

There's no town motive to do this.

Add in your general early game lurking, the fact that you STILL haven't had a single scum read, and the fact that every time you get bored you whine about dumb shit (town look scummier than scum so we shouldn't kill scummy people? REALLY?) and you need death so badly it isn't even funny.

[GreyICE]

Yeah, I'll just be over here laughing when the plan includes the words 'the vigs should not be afraid to shoot each other randomly.'

How about we don't submit kills on confirmed town. ESPECIALLY SINCE IF THE VIG DIES WE DON'T KNOW WHO THEY SUBMITTED A KILL ON YOU DUMBASS.

Whispersilk gets shot.

[GreyICE]

Also it's interesting to know that scumhunting is an either/or proposition with you. Either you make a night action plan OR you scumhunt.

[GreyICE]

Furthermore, this has a fairly low chance of catching scum.

Even if we assume Neil is the SK, there's 2 goons without a protect who are the only people who will be caught this way. That gives us far under 50% chance of catching scum any given night this way, while we lose a townie every single night.

So basically the plan is to gamble and lose.

That's fucking horrid.

I veto everything whispersilk has written, it's a plan to get the town to lose the game. Look at it. 2/11 shots get us scum, 2 shots fired each night, and 1 townie dies per night.

OH AND IF THE SHOT HITS THEN ONE TOWNIE DIES TOO.

So at a minimum we'd be sacrificing 2 town per scum dead (one from night kill, one from vig), we'd have a zero percent chance to catch the mafia doctor, and we'd be sacrificing every benefit of having a doctor.

Stupid plan was stupid.

Oh and a great way for town to lose game.

[GreyICE]

And here comes Izak to support Whispersilk.

[GreyICE]

How about we just use the vig shots as an extra lynch or two, minimize scum night kills, and play this as essentially a nightless with good scumhunting, since if we can render it down to near nightless then 8:2:1 or 8:3 nightless is heavily town favored?

Also, they're not nitpicks. It's 20% on a vig shooting scum. That's not even 50/50 it happens once a night. We lose 1 townie per night, 100%. So on average we lose 3 townies per scum death, and we have 8 townies.

Yes, your plan is how the scum win. Either you're scum, or you've done zero scumhunting and made a plan that ensures their victory barring 'I made money in Vegas' luck.

[GreyICE]

Please point out the flaw in my plan. Explicitly.

And if you can't, then I suggest you quit bitching about it, because it makes you look like scum.

I did, EXPLICITLY.

2 goons. 10 possible vig targets.
2 targets will be unprotected by goon.
Thus each vig shot has 2/10 AKA 20% chance to find scum.
Thus, a given night has a 64% chance for no scum to be found.

Each night 1 townie dies.
Every time scum is found 1 townie dies.

If

we find exactly one scum a night

AND NO MORE

we'd lose 2 town for every scum.

This would mean it would cost us 4 townies to find both goons.

HOWEVER this has less than a 20% odds of happening 2 nights. More than 80% it will cost us

FIVE OR MORE TOWNIES

to find both goons. Leaving us in LyLo, or just LOST.

Your plan is a virtually assured scum victory unless town gets hysterically lucky.

Now tell me EXACTLY why I'm wrong Whispersilk, or claim scum with Neil and die like a whimpering dog.

[GreyICE]

10 - the number of living, non-vig players each vig sees.

Duh.

[GreyICE]

Um, there is a pool of 7 docs on the train. Add to that 1 vig (assuming both vigs don't decide to randomly shoot each other on the same night) = 8.

Again, where do you get 10 from?

Oh wait, you think it's 10 because you STILL DON'T understand the plan. THE VIGS NEVER TARGET THE DOCS THAT ARE PROTECTING THEM, LEAVING A POOL OF 8 PEOPLE MAX, MOST LIKELY 7.

Read the plan, then get back to me when you understand it.

Same odds, since the docs protecting them have the SAME 20%

Unless you are claiming the two unprotected docs are confirmed town or something?

[GreyICE]

Do the math for me, whispersilk. Do it now. Assume random chance, random odds, random luck, tell me town chance of victory off your plan.

Factor in scum doctor.

[GreyICE]

Whispersilk, math.

There's two goons. Do the math now. What are the odds that one of the people one of the two goons is supposed to protect eats a vig shot?

(And this is all based on Neil flipping SK anyway)

[GreyICE]

Here's the math:

Claims
2 Vigs
9 Doctors

D1>V1
D2>V2

D3>D4>D5>D6>D7>D8>D9

If vigs pick random non-self targets, they can shoot 10 targets. Of those 10, 2 will be protected by goons.

Scum shoot D1 or D2 (unless both are scum, unlikely).

Odds both Vigs shooting same player

:10%

(lets say we split players into two pools to avoid this nonsense)

Odds of Vig shooting player protected by goon:

20%
1.

Odds both vigs shoot town protected (with two pools):

62% -

One dead townie (D1 or D2)

, two confirmed doctors
2.

Odds vigs shoot one scum:

36% -

Two dead townies

, one goon, one doctor,
3.

Odds both vigs shoot a goon protect:

2% -

Three dead townies

, two conf goons

Scenario One

D1 dead,
D8+D9 conf DOCTOR.

Lynch D2.

Circle protect:
D8+D9 on vigs
D3 on D8
D4 on D9
D5>D6>D7>D5

Pools:

V1:

D8, D5, D6

V2:

D9, D7

2 goons in 5.
j. Two Goons in V1: 30%
k. Split Evenly: 60%
l. Two Goons in V2: 10%

1j Odds:

V1: 66% hit Scum, V2: 0% chance (66% 1 scum, 0% two)

1k Odds:

V1: 33% scum, V2: 50% scum, composite gives: {0 scum: 33%; 1 scum: 50% Two scum: 17% }

1l Odds:

V2: 100% chance to hit scum.

Composite
0 scum: p(j)*p(0)+p(k)*p(0)+p(l)*p(0) = 0.3*0.33+0.6*0.33+0.1*0 = 30% [

SCENARIO 1A

]
1 scum: p(j)*p(1)+p(k)*p(1)+p(l)*p(1) = 0.3*0.66+0.6*0.50+0.1*1.0= 60% [

SCENARIO 1B

]
2 scum: p(j)*p(1)+p(k)*p(1)+p(l)*p(1) = 0.3*0+0.6*0.17+0.1*0= 10% [

SCENARIO 1C

]

Scenario 1A (9 Living)

D8/D9 dies

D7,D6 conf town.

D3 OR D4 confirmed scum.
{D3,D4}/D5 one scum/one town

Lynch {D3,D4} (Conf. Scum)
Double kill {D3,D4} (Non-Conf)

{Goto 1Ai, 1Aii}

Scenario 1B (8 Living)

D3 dies
D7, D6, One confirmed scum, one town
D4,D5 One scum

Lynch D7
D6,D8,D9 Confirmed

At this point if Mafia doctor is in D6,D8,D9 he'll start covering for goons, so just do it:
D4>D6
D5>D8
D6>V2
D8>D9
D9>V1

Or somesuch.

D6 and D8 should be the scummiest doctors in the conf. doctors since scum can freely shoot them.

1Bi - D4 scum
1Bii - D4 town

Scenario 1C

Lynch D8, Vig D9.

Night action plan: Everyone protects vigs, split evenly, vigs clean up until Mafia doctor dies.

=============================================================================

1Ai (6 living)

{D3,D4} = Town
D5 = Confirmed scum Lynch D5

Living 3 doctors: D6, D7, D8/9, 2 Vigs


How to win:
V1: Kill D6
V2: Kill D7

D6: Protect V1
D7: Protect V2
D8/D9: Protect V1 or V2

Assumptions: Mafia doctor might protect town, but can't self protect,

so living means conf. town.

Vigs can't die unless D6 or D7 is scum, win.

1Aii (6 living)

{D3,D4} Died, flipped scum

Living: 1 MD, 3 doctor, 2 vigs

Answer: No Lynch.

Doctors double up on vigs, vigs kill 2 doctors per night. Guaranteed win.

1Bi (6 living)

1 Goon, 1 MD, 2 Doctors, 2 Vig

D5 = Confirmed Goon, lynch, see 1Ai endgame

1Bii (6 living)

See 1Aii (1 MD, 3 doctors, 2 vigs)

Okay, lemme check scenario 2 now. Three is autowin, it boils down to:

1) Kill all goons
2) All doctors protect vigs
3) Lynch if number of living players is odd
4) Vigs kill doctors 2 by 2 until they are last alive, town no lynches every time.

[GreyICE]

Scenario 2:

Possibility vig death now in the picture. Vig death makes shit complicated.

Suggestions: No vigging other vigs. Leave D3/D4 unprotected, that's bad enough. Let scum use their kill to out their own buddy.

Anyway, assuming doctor death:

Lynch confirmed goon.

4 doctors, 2 vigs, 1 goons, 1 MD.

3 Doctors on V1
3 Doctors on V2

Kill 2 players a night. Survivor = Goon
Loss highly unlikely.

Scenario 3

Lynch 1, vig 1, 50/50 on vigs, kill all doctors 2 by 2.


Thoughts: NO VIG TARGETS ON NIGHT 1. PERIOD.

After that, target vigs if needed. 2 vigs are needed for so many endgame scenarios. After N1, mafia has to play suboptimally to kill a vig. With no vig shots into vigs N1 they have to out their own scumbuddy and use a kill on a vig, which is pretty powerful.


Assume: V1 dies
V2 has confirmed doctor (or confirmed goon)

Lynch confirmed scum (or 2)
Scenario now is:
5 doctors, 1 goon, 1 MD, 1 Vig
(one confirmed doctor)

Confirmed doctor protects vig (vig death = mafia doctor).

If goon, put 2 doctors on Vig, but that's easier since there's going to be less scum.

If mafia doctor, you have to legit scumhunt, this thing breaks down, but if Mafia doctor is dead, then we're good.


Thoughts: dead vig is only scenario where scumhunting gets involved, so it's fairly mechanical if neil is SK from here on forward.

Whispersilk's plan is fine, I volunteer to be unprotected.

It's fairly straightforward from here.

[GreyICE]

LOL, you soooooo badly don't want the town to follow the plan of win.

Again, there are only 7 max possible vig targets on night 1, NOT 10. This decreases the next two nights. What part of the math are you confused about now?

You suck at math in general.

Odds are for individual players being scum. Obviously being outside vig targets does not remove possibility of player being scum. DUH. Fucking dumbass.

[GreyICE]

Meh, the night action plan above gives probably 80%+ odds of town success. Whispersilk is pretty dead on. I thought there were a few hangups, but that plan, if Neil is the SK, wins us the game.

If Neils is scum, well, we're actually worse off, but only slightly.

[GreyICE]

Clears don't matter because we're just hunting for goons.

If mafia decides to 'clear' goon over 'clearing' doctor and loses doctor game becomes SUPER easy super quickly

[GreyICE]

It's labor day weekend, can't blame him.

with the no-vig N1 target and the 2 groups, I think this has migrated to a full-on breaking strategy. Nice job WS.

[GreyICE]

No possible way - scum obviously shot VitaminR.

Obvious who the lynch is for today, so lets put together tonight's plan once we have the confirmed doctor.

[GreyICE]

oh nm, got who was unprotected mixed up.

[GreyICE]

oh nm, got who was unprotected mixed up.

[GreyICE]

oh nm, got who was unprotected mixed up.

[GreyICE]

...

This spam brought to you by god knows what little quirk in the forum software.

[GreyICE]

Yeah, basic guidelines are simple:

7 living players:
2 confirmed doctors
3 Unconfirmed
2 Vigs

Lynch scummiest unconfirmed.

1) Town flip: At this point, there's less use shooting unconfirmeds as confirmeds. (Doctor can protect goon for free) Vigs double up, general vig protection. We win if vigs hit scum, or if the NK is randomly prevented. So at least one doctor should random protect, and most should vig protect.

2) Scum flip: All doctors on vigs, vig shoot 2 players. Rinse, repeat.

6 living players: 1 confirmed scum

Lynch scum, vigs vig 2 players, doctors on vigs. Easy win.

Glowball on Quaroath
Me on BB

Vig Pool BB> Quaroath, Quilford, Izak,
Vig Pool Quar> Thomith, Maruchan

[GreyICE]

if there's 7 living players tomorrow.

Obv we lynch piggy, and then scum are definitely killing one

[GreyICE]

um what?

VitaminR was vigged once.

[GreyICE]

Time to random.org it up. I think we're good to go.

Gonna wait till everyone gives the okay.

Hey BB

You're confirmed town

Why don't you go random.org it up and then tell us what we're doing.

Jesus weeps

[GreyICE]

HEY NO we do not have to vig her. What I mean is keeping her around as a sure fire scum lynch later. Like we use this lynch to lynch someone who is scummy and get them out of the game. Piggy is in a separate pool and does nothing and we can lynch her whenever. It's like we've already found scum, and we are saving it for a knock out punch. It was just a funny idea I thought it'd be kind of cool I mean we KNOW she is scum we should lynch someone else who we have suspicions of.

wut

no

this is more brain damaged than the let the claimed sk live idea

[GreyICE]

Just look at the odds:

Confirmed town: 2
Confirmed scum: 1
Other possibilities: 6

Chances of lynching scum: 2/6

Tomorrow unless no town die chances of lynching scum are better. Unless you think one of the doctors is obvtown.

[GreyICE]

Fine by me.

One of our confirmed town can hammer. Or piggy.

[GreyICE]

Vote: Piggy

Stop: Hammertime

[GreyICE]

I don't know that it is COMPLETELY broken.
We kind of got best case scenarios, like Neil outright claiming SK and NO scum counter claims. I mean we have to credit play style to some of what happened. That being said it is very slanted. I guess someone who thinks it is unfair should summarize.

A setup doesn't need to be COMPLETELY broken to be broken. If there is a strategy that

should

be used to increase the town's chances, rather than playing the game normally, the setup (in most cases) shouldn't be played.

Mass claim, followed by essentially using vigs to cop for goons by shooting random players in a circle protect.

Massively enhanced by dead SK, obv. I mean this was best case scenario (any game with 0 town lynches is best case scenario) but still an issue.

I think the fix is what I said in dead thread - make all 3 scum doctors, but make it so that if scum is protected by scum doctor and town doctor they lose all protections (even if multiple town doctors on them).

[GreyICE]

I dislike roleblocker as a solution because it kinda makes it 'lynch the roleblocker day 1 and suddenly you're playing broken game.'

[GreyICE]

How about introducing sanity issues with regards to some of the docs? Or are those frowned upon?

I do believe this setup is breakable. Even if my plan had not gone off so well, it would still have resulted in a town win. What constitutes a broken setup anyway? Is it one where one faction can't win, or where one faction has a much greater chance of winning, or where the odds are just on one factions side?

One where there is only one acceptable way to play the game.

Example: Pie E7 (Cop, doctor, 3VT, 2 goons). Cop claims day 1. Mafia counterclaims him. Town lynches whichever they don't believe.

If they lynch scum, doctor protects cop. Day 2, doctor claims, and unless cop investigated doctor, 3 confirmed town, 2 unconfirmed town. Even if he investigated doctor, you've got 3 unconfirmed town, a cop who can't die with confirmed sanity, and two lynches.

If they lynch town, D2 you lynch counterclaiming goon. D3 doctor claims (unless he's dead). It'll be 4:1 at that point, so you have 2 days to get scum (probable win if doctor alive, still very possible with doctor dead)

If mafia don't counterclaim, then mafia shoot for doctors, and cop confirms town.