Skim incoming
Open 391 - Theft on Cookie Island - Town Wins
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Rainbowdash Mafia Scum
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Oh awesome... nopony told me the game restarted and I could skip the first five pages...
FD attacking prob-town Amrun early is pretty bad, so it ACRV ignoring it in place of RVS. ACRV continues to look bad, FD may just be a little derpy and not understand how town reads actually work
Chrimi voting OOTN for calling Amrun town is really bad. Actually leapfrogs AcRv
The Thomith-GNR exchange is interesting since neither are too involved in the debate over Chrimi, but seem to just be discussing theory or something. Look for one of them to be scum if Chrimi is
Chrimi is taking his ball and going home... surprised he isnt dead yet. Odd part is what AcRv is doing... its like he supports the wagon on Chrimi but he really doesnt. That need explaining.
lol ponies... never knew that was a topic of discussion. Pinkie Pie swear it.
PM is wrong but I think town from his catchup post.
Heilograph is off, so is sando coming in and calling just about everypony scummy. Especially the fact that he doesnt vote his top scum read because they are near lynch.
Thomith cashes in all his town points with the OOTN vote
I swear this entire game is just half of you trying to convince me as to why you need to die over eachother. Stop it.
Ugh... FD really is looking like Derpy town off post 321
381-384
*twitch*
*twitch*
Oh well... im caught up and feeling confused for the most part.
Vote Heilograph
I would vote OOTN over FD pretty quickly as 381-384 is contradictory in nature.
Heilo is looking most like scum, I would be sorta ok with a sando and chirmi wagon too.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Think think think think think
Ok cop claim or not on the plan I had before I replaced in but decided it would just descend into semantics arguements.
Cop claims
Both JKs at night roll a 1d3, if they roll 1, they protect cop, if anything else they try and block a kill or whatever, 44% chance cop goes unprotected, so probably not worth it for scum to take the shot at them. With a "no cop" setup probably clearing Helio though, it may be worth going through on this one. We will see though.
@mod- If JK A protects JK B, does JK B action go through?
Im still trying to figure out if I just caught scum or town. I want to say scum, and if thats true WOW do we have a hoof up on scum.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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hmm
Ok I will need to look at the AcRv part then.
I still think Helio is scum though, although with AcRv is somewhat unlikely. I do think it makes Helio more likely to be town still if there are just two scum, which is why I have an issue with just flat out lynching him. If there are two scum, its a townslip and not a scumslip.
Maybe im jumping the gun on this one a bit... because it went something like
-Helio calls three ponies scum
-AcRv asks if those three are all scum together
-Helio gets all vauge (read - other reason Helio is scum) but calls for three scum
I dont think Helio makes the play he did as scum with only two scum either way though, so if there are two he is probably town, and it give AcVc town points to boot.
Situation is odd since it rests on if a cop actually exists or not.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 428, Amrun wrote:I agree that it's certainly not cut and dry, but not sure how you hope to determine if there's a cop without cop claiming, which is a horrible idea.
Not necessarily.
As I said, playing a RNG game forces scum to make the hard choices
1d2 is 25% cop is open
1d3 is 44% cop is open
1d4 is 56% cop is open
Its more of a gambling move, but even if we drop the cop N1 we know what setup we are dealing with along with scum. I think given all of that its an acceptable move to make, since if we get lucky at all we are going to be dominating scum.
Reckless? Maybe, but when you think of the amount of insight it can potentially give us on Helio and AcRv im willing to bite on it.
What im NOT willing to do is lynch Helio if there are just two scum.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 431, Amrun wrote:Why can't we just do that Day 2 so we can guarantee at least one result (probably)?
Because if there is no cop Helio is probably town.
I could go with OOTN who looks a lot like scum WITH Helio I guess, but im not even close to as happy doing that. If its something like Helio-OOTN-sando that would be awesome.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Alright, I can do this.
Vote Chrimi
I just think FD doesnt understand a few major aspects of how the game works on certain levels so is coming off wierd. His insistance over a few key points makes me think he is probably town though, as so much makes next to no logical sense, but really wouldnt aid scum to push.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Rainbowdash Mafia Scum
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In post 444, Amrun wrote:Why Thomith? I don't see it.
Good mix of
1) I am looking for somepony I dont see as town that works with Helio
2) I was town in one of Thomiths early games (and bailed him out as town), this does not at all feel like town-Thomith from that one
GNR may also be a good wagon if we are going to put Helio off until tomorrow. GNR, Thomith, OOTN... somepony from that group is going down if I have anything to say about it.
I just have this strong "not town" read coming from Thomith so I am voting him here. I would go back to OOTN if I cant get anything else going, and may just do it either way. Im bouncing around a whole lot and want to do something different every time I refresh the page.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Rainbowdash Mafia Scum
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In post 466, Om of the Nom wrote:@RD: Have you not read my posts at all? My top scumreads are Thomith FuDuzn and GNR. I can settle for a wagon on either.
Well which is MOST scummy then? You never really showed a whole lot of interest in voting Thomith until I came in and poked at that wagon.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 468, Om of the Nom wrote:Uh, yes I did. My order is Thomith, FuDuzn then GNR.
How come you never voted Thomith then?
Om of the Nom wrote:Oh yeah, nice avoiding of my questions in my earlier post too, still waiting on answers for them.
You mean the "why am I scum with Helio?" one? Long story short, he makes lots of small comments calling you scum but constantly is finding reasons to push somepony else.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 474, Om of the Nom wrote:Because I figured claiming a PR when near lynch would stop people from lynching me and lynch my scumread.
Still... why did you try and do that against FD and not Thomith?You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Please enlighten me on a simplified FD case then. Best point I see on him is that I like the recent wagon on him for the most part assuming OOTN townYou don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 500, Heilograph wrote:well, i view it like this, if i was cop . and town lynched someone. if town lynched scum .. and i investigated someone, if they turned up scum ... wouldn't you claim cop ? knowing that mafia has one person left.
However, the idea of recruiting only makes things more complicated.
Wha.....?
Lots of conditionals going on here. This is a really wierd response to a wagon on you too.
While you are here though
In post 266, Heilograph wrote:im kinda thinking that the whole Chrimi and AcRv is a setup , to distract us now.
i mean why go back and forth over the same thing?
Why do you think that they are both scum in this situation instead of town-town or town-scum? Is there actually scum tells they are committing or is this just a general blanket of "distracting, so scum"
but i like my vote. However Nom , your always acting sneaky... its just who you are. so you could be scum... and no one would ever know.
This is really fence sitting (and main reason I saw/see you-OOTN as valid partners)
You really have done zero scumhunting though, and instead just keep agreeing with anypony else who calls mane targets (acrv, chrimi, OOTN, thomith) scum.
Oh also tomorrow we hypo cop and JK. OOTN doesnt claim unless a kill doesnt show up.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Rainbowdash Mafia Scum
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In post 565, Hiraki wrote:And can someone link me to a Helio case?
He is doing nothing this game.
He calls AcRv and chrimi scum fighting together early and OOTN scum for "being sneaky" but never votes him despite that occupying most of his cases.
The mane reason he thinks that AcRv and Chrimi are scum is that they are distracting everypony though, that seriously is his case and what he is voting on for the first part of the game.
Now he is voting Chrimi for being "defensive" (using that tell is a scumtell) and for posting while on V/LA (am I also scum for being semi-V/LA right now and posting?). Apparently AvRv and Chrimi also arent scum together but im not sure what has changed... his reads just seem to match common suspects.
His basic defense for sitting around is that he would rather watch other town scumhunt.
Helio is just managing to "skate around the game" and "He doesnt post much"
Amrun and Chrimi are town, probably Hikari and FD, OOTN we can pin down soon here. We should get a mini alliance going and rock this game.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 571, Chrimi wrote:I work... *sunglasses* alone.
Seriously though, I don't trust Rainbowdash, FD, nor OOTN. So I'd pretty much not work there very well >.>
If you trust my reads I really dont care as much if you dont trust me or FD. OOTN you should have no problem being a tag along for the alliance though since if he is scum, he is living on borrowed time as is.
Going lone wolf in this game is anti-town basically no matter what the situation is. A large group, working together and headed by town one of the most frightening things scum can run into. We are making one right here, right now.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 587, Chrimi wrote:Rainbowdash, it wasn't going to be a quickhammer. Get that vote back on there, we need pressure on him.
Pfft
He is selfvoting, so thats probably going to come of next time he posts, then I can put my vote back. Im not having some silly filly hammer without a claim either accidently or "accidently" if he is town.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 596, FuDuzn wrote:Haven't we already discussed that L-2 really isn't too much pressure?
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Helio
Then we discussed that leaving him at L-1 when he is obviously going to unvote himself allows for somepony to make some derpy move!
Remembering stuff is fun!You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 614, Thomith wrote:is it L-2 or L-1?
Not sure about the reaction test, but it sort of makes sense, as day 1 i'm confused on why scum would claim.
You do realize his reaction test only calls two ponies scum, one of which was already voting him (OOTN) and the other of which he has called scum the entire game yet is probably town (chrimi). It gave him nothing, and he is just trying to play it off best he can as some town gambit.
Somepony hammer.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Why would town?
Logically no pony should, so its not something you can pin on any alignment. Only conclusions that can be drawn from it say he should be lynched, and you know those conclusions from firsthand experience.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 618, Thomith wrote:fair point, still unsure about this whole thing.
has helio claimed? (other than scum...)
Nopony ever learns.
What did you do in that one game I bailed you out in that I caught and saved your lynch with?You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 621, Thomith wrote:lol being unsure? Whats your point here?
You really dont remember me?
Back in that game you essentially claimed VT through a few moves which gave me enough additional fodder to my case on you being town to save you and get scum lynched. Helio has basically claimed VT through his continued use of a selfvote and something else which im not going to bring up right now but makes it almost for sure that he is VT but can trap him if he wants to fakeclaim.
He is scum though through his continued hanging back and doing nothing scumhunting wise, while trying to bluster up a case on OOTN (claimed PR) and chrimi (town) while apparently ignoring sando for some reason.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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@PM - OOTN is dead scum walking if he is scum, so im happy with leaving him in the alliance but not driving it. Amrun is probably town here for voicing basically the exact same thoughts I did right at the restart, and if Helio is scum she is basically auto-town.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 648, Guy_Named_Riggs wrote:I'm confused. How am I countering him? I never claimed JK at all
I never said that. I voted you for other reasons.
If there is a JK though, they need to counter now because it means that OOTN is scum (as there cant be three JKs) and after a hypocop it will give scum fits about who they need to kill since it means a cop exists.
Note cop claims tomorrow if we have one. We just hypoclaim today unless there is a guilty.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 650, Om of the Nom wrote:No, it doesn't mean I'm scum. I am definitely a real JK, so they must be scum instead.
We cross that bridge if we come to that bridge.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Woo! Theory time - time for this pony to shine.
OOTN gets ignored today by and large, thats the biggest thing we take away from this. He isnt getting lynched and a cop if one exists is not claiming today, they are claiming tomorrow.
We are in one of two setups
1) OOTN is a JK and there is a cop and three scum
2) OOTN is scum, there is no cop and only one other scum
What we do here is hypocop, which means everypony says something like
"If I am a cop, I targeted X and they came up Y" that way if the cop dies, we know what they got as a N1 result. Tomorrow the cop actually claims if they are around since it clears OOTN, and most likely at least one pony is clear/condemned.
@OOTN - If you are a JK, you are going to have to use your own judgement on if you should retarget the same pony off of results or not. Only way this really will hurt us is if you are a JK and hit the cop last night though, and thats something we can deal with if it happened, but chances are so low im not going to compramise the situation by having OOTN claim a target first since its just going to be WIFOM.
For hypocop - If I am the cop, I got a guilty on GNR. Please note this does not mean we are quicklynching GNR since I am not confirming or denying that I am the cop.
In their next post, everypony should make a similar claim of what they got on somepony.
@Hikari - Scum know if there is a cop or not, we dont. There is a medium chance we are going through the motions for nothing here, but if there is a cop this is optimal play.
@Chirmi - Hypo cop is "hypothetical cop" which I think has been standard since 2009(?) or so? At least thats when I first remember it a bit but I never played opens much until recently where it applies more. Its basically a "If I am a cop" statement that guarentees that the cop gets their result out in a way that at least should keep them hidden in a few players. Undoubtedly there are a couple that are going to show scum they are not cop in a hypocop with a result, but cop is still hard to pin down and they for sure produce a result.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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I just like a GNR lynch here, he is doing very very little, with small snipes at what is happening from time to time mostly at OOTN. He actually ended the day not suspecting anypony, and hasnt given anything in the forms of reads in a long time. Best I really can tell from reading him is "not scum with Thomith" through a few posts as well as lower chance scum with AvRc and FD.
Reminds me a whole lot of how he played when I was scum with him at one point.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 719, Hiraki wrote:Dash: Thought this was his meta.
Haven been scum with him the past its dead on his scum meta. Had to bail him out hard and even then I only was able to buy him a few days before he ate it.
@FD - He has posted nothing so he is lurking it up hard and not really going to give us anything, which is why I investigated him if I am cop.
If you want me to break down his about 20 posts (yes thats its after restart)
1) He throws out a lot of information and theory about Chrimi early when he goes on about the whole selfvote thing trying to extract some reasoning from both OOTN and AcRv over the sitaution but never make a stance on it himself or actually does anything with what he got and elects to move on for unknown reasons
2) His attack on OOTN is off. Best I can pull is
you seem like acting to appear town because it appeared that you were using them as a way to back-up your actions
So calling him scum because he is doing what it appears like he should be doing? Or something?
I also at this point will say that even if I have a guilty on GNR as a cop, I am fully willing to lynch elsewhere.
3) After the OOTN lynch, he tries to put all backing of what the lynch is on OOTNs suspicions (which is why if GNR is scum Thomith is town), and vice versa. He almost seems to be still trying to make us somewhat doubt OOTN is actually a JK (again, if this is no cop GNR is town but eh)
Really though - GNR has nothing to show in the form of suspects, anypony he does suspect he either immediately drops or just forgets about for the most part.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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There may be an odd borderline gambit/major assumption we can pull today that can put us in a very strong position for tomorrow. Just hold on and let me think about it for a little, this is almost as much for me that I dont just forget about it.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Ok, so im thinking we dont lynch anypony who we think is town if OOTN is scum, because odds are 50-50 that he is scum and only has one partner. We shouldnt lynch purely on him being scum because like I said, 50-50 he is confirmed town (and I really hope if he is scum his partner doesnt claim cop because that will be a PAIN to figure out and could be massive WIFOM that gets us to an endgame).
I think that we should almost act like he is scum for purpose of the lynch today though, since if he is scum and we lynch somepony that is town if he is scum... well thats a waste isnt it?
Im going to go through and see what type of a lynch pool im looking at here soon. I think its playing it safe to just say anypony who doesnt work at all with him as scum gets let off the hook.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 731, FuDuzn wrote:So why would you give advice to scum on how to beat your plan?
Also, you didn't answer my other questions.
Because im a clever pony. There are contengency plans to everything. Like I said, if scum kill me and try this gambit, im sure somepony else is smart enough to know how to deal with it eventually.
Also im not trying to incite doubt over OOTN at all. We do not touch him today, but if we play as if he is scum, it prevents us lynching somepony who looks obviously town when matched with OOTN-scum which we can prove true or not beyond a shadow of a doubt tomorrow.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 735, Thomith wrote:i don't see how rainbow is "giving scum a way to beat her plan" could you point this out to me fud, as i can't see it.
Hey. We are dropping this point. Right now. Fully. Dead serious im willing to lynch anypony who keeps pressing the point.
I can explain tomorrow why I did what I did if im alive, but for today you need to trust that im a clever pony and know what I am doing since its not the end of the world if OOTN scum does this gambit.
Today we lynch sando im thinkin.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 738, Hiraki wrote:Why Sando?
Because he is somewhat scummy already, and if OOTN is scum he looks golden to be a partner.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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Rundown on sando-scum
His first big post isnt that bad, but his conclusions he draws from it make no sense since the pony he zeros in on is not his biggest scum pick because he doesnt want to but his top pick at L-1 because "there is a lot of time left" which really has nothing to do with who you think is scum.
Following that any pushing on AcRv (who he voted) or FD (top pick) goes entirely dead. There is a lot of small posts talking namely about Thomith and OOTN but its not scumhunting, its just talking that never goes anywhere. I have no idea where he stands on anything after his entry into the game, just that he gets involved in quite a few discussions that happen.
Even today, zero clue who is sando thinks is scum. He is just floating along and posting but adding little to no worth about anything game related.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 745, projectmatt wrote:I'm trying to understand why you're not comfortable with lynching Om The Nom because the connection between his partners would be made regardless of whether they're lynched today or tomorrow?
Because given the setup we can prove him confirmed town or scum tomorrow. Only way it gets vaugely complicated is if he is scum and his partner claims cop.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 747, FuDuzn wrote:I just want to now how you can go about confirming roles with a vote hear, like let's say you vote me and I flip town(or scum), then what does that make Om?
Its an open game. You can easily confirm players in open games. OOTN will either be confirmed by a cop claim tomorrow, or be condemned when none claim. If he is scum and his partner wants to gambit with a cop claim, so be it, its figure outable in the long run I think.
If you trust me at all, let this drop. I am a clever pony and know exactly what I am doing here.
You should vote sando.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 751, Thomith wrote:
@RD still would like a reason why you think sando/om would make sense as buddies, as i recall you saying this could be the case.
Just read sando and it should be at least somewhat noticeable. It doesnt matter much in the here and now though since OOTNs alignment is still very up in the air.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day-
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In post 751, Thomith wrote:i don't like how matt and fud are seemingly dumb to the fact we can clear om, matt more so because he seemingly wants om dead before he can have a chance to get cleared, thats how i see it anyway.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: PM
We are not lynching PM today. Or GNR for that matter beause both are town if OOTN is scum. I would prefer not to lynch FD for similar reasons.
I almost want to just flex my power a bit and say lynch pool is (sando/hikari/acrv) but am not overly sure on that one a this point. We dont touch OOTN/PM/GNR though today, period and end of story.You don't earnloyaltyin a day. You earn it day by day