Open 421-Pamplona II: Electric Bullgaloo! Game over

[Rainbowdash]

Ok.... painfull skim read

1) Somepony needs to explain all the Grey hate... because he is one of my strongest town reads
2) Inte I think might be town, but may also be more wrong than anypony in the game and the caustic play needs to stop now
3) Does everypony here know my basic theory about stuff in these games? You should look it up, last C9++ I basically broke the game if Hikari wouldnt have fakeclaimed and others would have known my vig meta. Read into it, theoretically we should claim early in this setup, especially if there ever is a non-goon scum flip. Deja vu feelings.
4) DJD isnt dead. This is confusing since he is scum.
5) Bitmap is probably town given the L-1 reaction of actually attacking BK.

Vote DoubleJD

These wagons going on now are just ugly and reactionary. Sanity went out the window right after Bit hit L-1 closely followed by civility. Lets catch them and actually start playing a little less emotionally, most of us know how much knee jerk reactions can just cost town the game so those need to quit now.

Case later, for now - other stuff I need to take care of.

[Rainbowdash]

So despite as distracting as the whole inte-BK thing got, I think DJD is by far the better scum pick here. His play around the whole situation with bit really reeks of scum not knowing how to handel the situation and playing as stand offish as possible.

In 90, he witholds most of his read on bit because they are a newer player while being taking a weaker stance on them himself "no reaon to think scum" and pushes a little against the wagon.

However, i dont see reason to think shes scum. Theres too many silent ppl to wagon her this fast when we all know her join date.

DJD does nothing really to try and figure out which of the ones on the wagon is scum, and infact goes an entirely different way. Maybe this is just that I tend to not let any wagon I dislike exist for too long, but if you have a "sorta town" and especially if there is a direction you are looking at.

Either way an immediate push on BK feels like its going against what he has been saying and reading. DJD scum means there should be lurker scum on the bit wagon.

He leaves his vote on BK though for really no reason. If you go off of DJD, its hard to figure out why there is a BK wagon (not that I dont get it either way). It seems like he is just countering a bit wagon hard and BK is getting the brunt of it "because" when if you want to pick out somepony scummy on that wagon, its NOT BK at all.

DJD is talking quite a bit, but he is really not pushing much in the form of reads outside of bit, which even then he is arguing everything is a null tell.

@DJD - What is your Bit read and why? Also what is your BK case?

Finally the recent comment to DMS is all types of scummy. I actually like that post more for scum than just about the rest of my post since he is trying to attack DMS for pressuring him without actually committing to knowing if he should call DMS scum or not. From DJDs hooves, a scum read of DMS voted him and DMS followed. The three ways to try and get the wagon away from him are the discredit the case (which I haddent made), to attack DMS back, or to try and use the past read to discredit my voting him a bit.

The stance that DJD took leaves him open for either of the last two, as pointing out who I replaced could make DMS realize that and suddenly decide not to sheep me, or he could figure out he is going to stick with it and try and push back on DMS for trying to get him lynched and attempt to spin "sheeping scum read" as a case to discredit that vote.

Its just all kinds of bad. Mix that with his odd movement regarding bit early of calling out a group for being scum then showing up on popular read BK without giving any case on him... DJD is scum.

Free day two passes to next couple who lynch/bus him.

That was more than I intended to write

need a nap

[Rainbowdash]

I said i doubted scum were on bit's wagon. It got to 5 votes in under 3 real days iirc and was mostly based on nonsense. Tell me, would scum really think that wagon would go anywhere? If not, would they put themselves in a position to cast one of the later votes without explanation like andrew? Is there a way to tell the difference between a random vote from scum and a random vote from town that starts a wagon? I dont think so. The early wagon was a crap wagon, and ive said as much before.

Ok here is a common misconception from your arguements; the early bitmap wagon was REALLY good. I thought bit was scum up until the reaction to the unvote from BK when they started dropping town tells. At the same time, arguing that scum avoided a big wagon all is WIFOM and tends to be playstyle dependant for most scum. There are a few who will get on every wagon, and some who wont touch anything.

Given that i dont think scum would have wagoned bitmap at that point, and there is no difference between the first few rv's made by scum and made by town, who logically follows as scum? Those doing nothing during rvs, a stage where the most finger pointing occurs and those in the spotlight get shat on, or those who are stirring shit up? Ya, there are active scum (greywing when hes scum for one), but its so much easier to just do nothing. Mcstab, bk, hyperion, and a few others were just sitting there watching the bit wagon occur without giving any opinion at all. As scum, that would be because the wagon is shit and would likely break. Sit and wait, something will happen, then post later. I saw bk posting in other threads and decided a lurker vote was best.

Its actually harder (and poorer play) to do nothing as scum in 90% of situations. Again you are trying to break down things into what scum do and dont do... when it simply depends who scum is. If you look at any of my scum games, I tend to be very vocal and push everything because it does a much better job of playing to my wincondition. As you can see here, I do the exact same thing as town because it ALSO plays to my wincondition.

What is your BK case now though? Since you have voted him all you have said is that his bit vote was bad (not explained it really) which I actually disagree with for the mostpart, as again Bit would have been my vote if I was in the game right up until the moment that they attacked BK. From what I can tell your entire case on BK is "lurkey and bad (thats argueable) vote".

I left my vote on bk, because his posts after responding to my prod sucked. His reasoning for voting and unvoting bitmap and putting him at L-1 sucked. Hes still scummy, and ive said as much before.

What does "sucked" entail and why is it more likely a scum than town whatever. Why is he still scummy?

I dont know if shotty is scum or not, you got me there. Id like for him to talk more about why he thought you were scum but then that he should join your wagon though. His response to getting called out also sucks.

You are still doing it but seem to have made up your mind. You are attacking him because he changed a read (my slot) and is now agreeing with me and attacking your slot. This probably isnt something you would be commenting much if at all on if he joined me on somepony random.

PS: Pinkiepie>>>>>>>rainbowdash, and tldr your argument doesnt reflect the truth of what actually happened in the game.

Pinkie is second or third depending on mood. Your arguements all hinge around the "bit wagon was bad" theory which I really disagree with, as does im assuming anypony who voted bit, and that goes a long way to making all of your cases exceedingly subjective.

@MS - You should bus DJD instead. RM is lurkey which is a pain to play with, but a few of her posts are kinda townish. What parts of my DJD case do you agree with and what parts do you disagree with? All of your pushes there are really vauge and I cant tell heads from tails in how close they are in scummyness or anything else along those lines.

[Rainbowdash]

Well trying to respond to a response at almost 2AM is never going to be a good thing, especially when I think you missed a few of my bigger points. The stance on the wagon of Bit just seems a little tough to swallow for me, when you make a statement that seems to call out the quiet players on the wagon, but are now trying to say you thought the wagon was mostly town/scum off the wagon.

That already is a bit awkward since while it happens, its rare for a wagon to be entirely town backed, especially a wagon on somepony you are saying is town to be all town backed. Why is it that you think the lurkers off that wagon are the ones that are more likely scum than those who are on the wagon?

If that is the entire reason you are voting BK (wagon more baseless than I thought?) I dont get it. If BK was scum trying to get a lynch of bit or something which you seem to try and be justifying at this point, why does BK unvote and call bit town suddenly? That on its own is a bit of a town reaction because he was obviously going to catch flack for that move to start, scum trying to get a lynch could have made something up in half a second if they wanted to since Bit was amazingly scummy. I could probably write a case on why Bit is still scum the play from the first half of the game was so bad, its something that I think BK-scum is easily able to do, and im not seeing the scum motivation from the removal of the vote, just a reaction to inte flipping out.

What is going on with you and your DMS read now though? You seem to be trying to call him scum for sheeping me still but avoiding doing it explicitly. BK still scum or is he town now?

[Rainbowdash]

@ Rainbowdash
I'll review your case against DoubleJD and his responses tomorrow. You got any kind of read on Near?

I wouldnt be super opposed to his lynch given his calling of Bit not scum and then turning around sheeping onto the wagon. I just think DJD is more likely scum as Near tends to be a really flakey hard to read player, feel I could read him more accurately if I got a scum flip first from somepony else.

[Rainbowdash]

Im not "now saying" anything. My position has not changed since i made my case for bit.

Early on you are way more concerned with the composition of the wagon on Bit instead of actually trying to get the wagon off him if you thought it was on town. I still think when you mesh it with

Theres too many silent ppl to wagon her this fast when we all know her join date.

Its sounding like you are calling players on the wagon scum specifically. There is a difference between saying that a wagon sucks and calling out players (or a group of players) as scum.

For the whole BK thing I think we are never going to see eye to eye since I thought there was almost nothing wrong with the vote, the unvote, and everything around there. Bit was AMAZINGLY scummy up to that point and the defending of him almost seems a little white-knightish. Maybe looking back its because DGL focused on some things that are obviously null and missed some things I saw as scummy, but I dunno. Think as scum with a wagon building that fast I would have debated trying to deflect off some of a Bit-town wagon. Then again its WIFOM I guess. Maybe its you arguing points dont work instead of why he is town which is what I tend to think of legit town defending other works on past defending bunk things.

BK is not scum for voting a scummy player who only starts towntelling AFTER they got put at L-1. Im not sure how I would react to a situation like that where after putting a player I thought was scum at L-1 for any reason they started to look town. The fact that he reacted in that way really makes me think town not knowing what to do.

Beats me. He doesnt care to answer which i can wifom as being townie (why wouldnt scum answer!) or hes avoiding it because it looks bad (omg scummy!). Maybe he just changed his mind or his read wasnt that strong. Its not like hyperion had many posts. I have no idea what to make of it, and id wish he'd answer. As to bk, my previous post says i think hes scum still :/

What are you trying to get out of DMS at least? Are you expecting him to come up with a whole bunch of supplementary stuff to my case or just say again that he is sheeping?

What is your read on Near? You say MS is a good lynch, better or worse than BK?

@Near - Why are you voting Bit?

Im thinking Bit, DLG, BK are town... with that last vote JF is probably town but he needs to not throw away a vote. Grey I also have a town read on... so thats pretty good.

Theory wise we need to massclaim tomorrow. I did a C9++ a while ago and a massclaim D2 would have basically won the game for town. Unfortunately after I got killed N1 they decided not to massclaim until D3, and then somepony lied about their claim which turned a forced win into a loss...

Either way, if im alive or not you DO massclaim tomorrow, as if its more than just a couple roles for us, it really is going to start semi-clearing players. This is especially true if a non-goon flips or if there is ever evidence (like two kills) of a SK.

unvote

Im going to think. DJD still really bugs me though.

Ooooh! Also I forgot

Hypo-hide claims. Always good in these situations.

If im a hider im going behind DJD tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

Massclaim is REALLY good in C9++ and I think it would translate well to this as long as town doesnt lie about claims. Im completely serious that the last C9++ I was in Hikari threw a forcedwin because he lied and claimed VT (and then missed a forced draw when he claimed cop, not that im still bitter about that one)

Theoretically it should be good here too. Basic arguement is that once we massclaim we know how many non T roles we have drawn, and if we get some non-goon flips, we can actually figure out how many PRs are lying by comparing what we should be up against to what is getting flipped. Not sure if DJD sees this, but im not missing the reasoning for massclaim to be missed/ignored/etc if I get killed N1 again as expected.

Somepony explain the RM thing to me, because her reaction to inte looks very much like frustrated town to me.

[Rainbowdash]

Massclaim is REALLY good in C9++ and I think it would translate well to this as long as town doesnt lie about claims. Im completely serious that the last C9++ I was in Hikari threw a forcedwin because he lied and claimed VT (and then missed a forced draw when he claimed cop, not that im still bitter about that one)

Can I get a link to that game?

Pretty sure its fully crash lost, so no.

Basically I was one shot vig, didnt shoot (like always, vigging is anti-town), died N1. Town massclaimed D3, if Hikari would have claimed right it would have proven there was a SK and caught the last scum, but he lied, got town mislynched, then himself mislynched and town lost. I wish that one was around because I have a feeling stuff may go down same way here and its a great example of why you massclaim early in this setup amungst other stuff.

[Rainbowdash]

Because some apparently dont get it

1) You massclaim TOMORROW. Today would be only if we for some reason get a large number of claims.
2) We hypo hide today. For those who do not know what it means, you say "If im a hider I will target X". As everypony says that, scum dont know who to kill if they are looking for a possibly non-existant hider. A dead hider gives us scum though.

Im a little wierded out by so many being willing yet apparently clueless about the massclaim thing, but I think thats actually going to be a good thing since the right way to deal with it as scum is actually pretty complex. That C9++ scum completely butchered it to the point where I had them all caught in the dead QT early (I actually CAN link that) so with not many understanding it you NEED to make that claim tomorrow.

Im going to mull over the tier aspect again since that was off the cuff last run but I think is effective.

@DJD - Why MS over Near in the lurker battle?

[Rainbowdash]

@mod

- In the event a hider targets another hider, what is the outcome?

Covering all the bases with this one.

[Rainbowdash]

Well that works then. I thought it would be a hide, commute, hide, commute pattern.

@mod

- What about hider targeting commuter using a shot?

[Rainbowdash]

Ok.

RBDs theory ramblings number two - how to claim.

This is not as straightforward as I though it was going to be because of the "or" modifiers. It does tell us some stuff though, so thats awesome.

In C9++ you claim by tiers in a first pass, and I think we can at least try it here, it makes the K and P roles safer claims, but it should work and be minimal risk.

If you are a role that only shows up if more than one letter appears, in a massclaim on the first pass you claim tier two. If you exist at only one letter, tier one. If VT of course VT. While Doc and Vig can appear at tier one, its mildly unlikely for that to be the case.

What this does is force scum to either pick low tier roles, or high tier ones that possibly cant exist.

Once all tiers have been claimed, we again pass through for claiming, this time the tier two role claim first. This can catch scum who claims a T2 role that cant exist, forcing them to play it conservatively and risk being countered by a T1 role.

For example, scum claims T2, and then claims Commuter. If there is no Hider, confirmed scum. If they clam T1 and claim hider then there is a second hider claim, one of the two is scum.

Claiming in this game needs to happen D2, it probably could work right now but if the number of roles is low its not worth it. The only downside is so many players dont know what to do in this setup, in the offchance scum has somepony who knows what to claim they can convey that to any clueless partners overnight. It simply comes down to "Do we have a lot of roles" and I am not happy making that assumption.

@Grey - Lurking outside of a select few players is indicative of alignment. That and I have a gut town read going on RM at this point. What are your thoughts on all the other plentafull lurkers in this game.

Almost all the votes out now are horrible. Bit is a bad vote, Grey is a bad vote, inte is a bad vote, RM is probably a bad vote, same applies to Uber... ugh.

Vote Near

Stance time. Everypony needs to say what they think of Near in their next post. That wagon has been hanging around for a bit but never has gone anywhere and its time to find out why.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

Just realized im doing that thing where I dont read a word right with respect to calling Near scum when I was about to make an "are you kidding me" post.

[Rainbowdash]

*twitch*

@Bit - What is your read on Near, summary of one is fine with me.

[Rainbowdash]

I think he could be scum. He's been lurky and jumping bandwagons. Voted for me/Grey for the sole reason there was a wagon going on. Other than that, his last post made no sense and is WIFOM.

So he's null/scum for me.

You just called him a mislynch though. Why call a null/scum read a mislynch?

[Rainbowdash]

RBD, do you always appear town, even as scum?

Yes. Usually I appear more town as scum for some reason.

Dashie's decently complex. She's good enough that I wouldn't want to lynch her day one, but we'll see. Something isn't right about her play thus far. She seems to be focusing on the whole massclaim thing which won't even happen until tomorrow.

Given that I lost a C9++ because the players screwed up everything I said after I got killed N1 that cost us a really easy win, im not going to risk that happening again. Even if I have to beat everything into the ground first.

I will get responses to bit up later.

So just to clarify with the massclaim, the higher tier (as in the roles only possible with multiple letters) claim first, and then the lower tier claim second?

Correct. Mass popcorn tier level first. Then comes mass roleclaim of T2 (popcorn) and then T1.

[Rainbowdash]

Odds as they have been requested

0 or 7 PRs = 0.8% (1/125)
1 or 6 PRs = 5.4% (1/19)
2 or 5 PRs = 16.4% (1/6)
3 or 4 PRs = 27.3% (1/4)

So odds are we have 2-5 PRs

@Bit - Why are you still calling him a mislynch? This is the first time in the entire game that you have called anypony who is not you a mislynch apart from a couple general uses of the term. You also are really not giving me a stance on him. You called him null/scum, then when im not pushing you are really backing down on that stance even. If you had to guess right now - scum or town and why?

@DJD - If you dislike Bit these last few pages, why did you avoid commenting on it until prompted?

[Rainbowdash]

Ok... yes im going to get way into theory here but im just going to spoiler this. Not going to lose two of these games because I die N1 and no pony understands the theory behind a massclaim and how to go about it

Spoiler:

There are seven players in this game

Code: Select all

Red
Orange
Yellow
Blue
Green
Purple
White

We start with a tier massclaim and get the following

Code: Select all

Red - T1
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2
Green - T2
Purple - T1
White - T1

Now we have the T2 players, Blue and Green claim. It now looks like

Code: Select all

Red - T1
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2 - Doctor
Green - T2 - Commuter
Purple - T1
White - T1

Now come the T1 claims (scummiest first -> popcorn)

Code: Select all

Red - T1 - Jailkeeper
Orange - VT
Yellow - VT
Blue - T2 - Doctor
Green - T2 - Commuter
Purple - T1 - Jailkeeper
White - T1 - Vengeful

At this point we look at the setup for what can and cant be true. Green has to be lying and is scum, since there is no hider. Purple and Red cannot both be the Jailkeeper, so one is lying.

Thats how we massclaim and what we need to be looking for in the results. Other stuff im going to stay silent on but if im dead go through everything with the WIKI PULLED UP and do fesability checks after every flip.

Questions? No?

In that case I think we lynch Bit who may have scumslipped that Near is town with the calling him a mislynch out of nowhere. It reminds me just a little of something I caught dramonic doing with a terminology thing in a multiball game a long time ago. He had been calling anti-town groups "scum" the entire game, but then suddenly called somepony 'mafia' with zero prompting of it, just in a single post I believe. This was dramonic knowing the player could only be mafia as he was wolf. Its a terminology slip as scum where they say something they know to be true and have been working with it the entire game but its something town cant possibly know.

When you consider that Bit continues to call Near scum, the one time calling them a mislynch makes me think that they are scum without Near and made a post without realizing what they are saying.

Either way I think Bit needs a whole lot of pressure since they are really all over the place with what they think of Near in not only what they are calling him but also the stance on him.

Tomorrow massclaim is required. A hider death guilty is probably the only situation I would recommend waiting on one.

[Rainbowdash]

@Near - You are missing something. May as well say it because its what screwed over town last time. Pay attention to the scum roles and if there is a SK. This tells us what setup we are in, and therefore how many PRs we have. If the number does not add up with the amount claimed, we have known scum (and even how many possibly) in the PRs and same goes for the VT group.

Massclaim is brutal in this game for scum to deal with because they need a little bit of luck and they need to know exactly how to deal with a massclaim.

[Rainbowdash]

@Near - Trust me on this is far more complex than it looks on the surface. There are a lot of small traps that scum can trigger and I think im one of the only ones here that knows it enough to the point they would be able to coach partners around it. Take a look at this dead QT (game crash lost) you can see me break the entire game from the QT. I got every scum read right and even pegged the SK through breaking down the claims. It works WONDERS and if scum doesnt know how to handle a massclaim this setup is heavily town slanted.

Bit is probably scum, they are just clinging to the "mislynch but scum" wagon of Near without really giving any sort of reasoning. Almost all of their discussion is about massclaim, but they are using it as a reason to skirt actually justifying their positioning on the wagon or really giving much of a read at all. The case on Near from bit is "Forgot why they voted me". Im thinking Bit is scum who managed to panic react into hitting town tells when they got put at L-1.

Also incase its not obvious, Bit-scum means Near-town and DJD probably is scum.

[Rainbowdash]

@Bit - Why doesnt scum-Near just go along with massclaim if he is convinced its a bad thing without saying its a bad thing? There has been no opposition to it, so its easy to just sheep everypony else who has agreed with it. The attitiude feel like town who doesnt like the idea but knows they cant stop it.

[Rainbowdash]

I wonder if the following exercise can change people's mind. Suppose the list of following mass claim:

Players 1, 2, 3, ... 7 claim VT

Player 9 claims Tracker
Player 10 claims Tracker
Player 11 claims Vengeful
Player 12 claims Vigilante
Player 13 claims Doctor

How much information do we get?

If the vig is proven to exist vengeful is cleared
If venge isnt venge vig is confirmed scum
Claimed roll is: IIIKKPT
This means expected is goon, JOAT, Driver, SK
If a SK is proven to not exist one role is lying
If a SK does exist all claims are true or two are lying (or just one tracker, both trackers arent scum)

Thats a good amount of info to me.

You possibly why he wouldn't say it, it's because he's scum. See, scum are more worried about living in my opinion than going against the majority. Why would a townie care if he gets lynched unless PR?

How does going against the majority and getting into an arugement with town leader help him live? As scum I have completely just let town do stuff that as town I would have stepped in and ended. If you really think its destructive there is no reason to stop it unless mandated by meta to.

[Rainbowdash]

Would a massclaim Day One have an advantage in that scum would be forced to claim before THEY know more information? e.g. the way people flip overnight and during the Day would mean that we can essentially confirm (or even disprove) some roles existence, meaning that scum would have less to go off of on what is a safer claim or an impossible claim? Sorry but I'm super unfamiliar in this territory, but I could see some advantages to a Day One massclaim.

There is a really small gamble im going to take and say no, because even if im wrong about how N1 pans out (I die) there still is a very decent chance that the optimum N1 resolves and results are better than what would have happened. Cryptic I know but I will explain either tomorrow or postgame. Its another one of those little things thats just better if scum dont know.

I like MS town from that post though.

D1 is better than D3 by leaps and bounds.

He wasnt going against the majority. Bitmap, greywing, inte, and a few others have been questioning the validity of it and even been pushing away from a massclaim. If anything, id say being against it was the easier way to go.

Some reluctance has shown up but its quickly been giving way. I think just agreeing and trying to get on my good side (I love it when somepony buddies to me) would be what I expect from Near-scum here.

[Rainbowdash]

There is a small risk high reward option if we dont claim today.

Massclaim is fine but there is a result that can really make it a dagger tomorrow with a little bit of luck tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

I can roll with it. We are not going to get what Near wants though, even if we were down to something like five I would be skeptical about being able to pull that off. I think Bit starts and we just popcorn from there out.

My only arguement was if we have VT killed N1 we are at major advantage, again that other c9++ game I was talking about no town PRs died early and scum got reemed (or should have... still not bitter). Think enough are probably not VT though to justify that mvoe

[Rainbowdash]

Its questionale, but not that dumb. It actually does produce the advantage of scum have no night results to go off of to try and figure out if there are a couple T1 roles or an SK. Lack of knowing that will hurt them a bit.

Claiming today as opposed to yesterday basically comes down to the gamble of who would die tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

Its hard to debate much with today though since its really all about playing the odds. If we think we are going to lose a PR, we claim today. If not we claim tomorrow.

Either way we do massclaim in tiers like I said earlier. No reason to give scum more info then they need.

[Rainbowdash]

Pretty sure I was already but

Vote Bitmap

He is just completely digging in from the point I jumped on him for the Near comments. His scumhunting is exceedingly forced and really just an attempt at trying to justify positioning on the counterwagon instead of anything else.

inte, RM, JF and MS are all just throwing away their votes right now and that needs to end.

@BK - Can you just vote Bit so we can get his claim? At that point we can really figure out what needs to be done with this game. Pretty sure its "lynch Bit scum" but given that a massclaim may come out of a claim, I think we need to have put somepony at L-1 within the next couple days

[Rainbowdash]

Oh also in this situation a claim from pressure should still be VT/T1/T2 and then give me a second to think about it.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeeesh

You may as well claim now since im pretty sure that affirms the not-vanilla vibes I was getting. Still claim by tier. A T2 role is something that cannot exist without the T1 counterpart existing. That means for a T2 to exist at least two of the same letter were drawn.

In JK9++, the following are T2 roles: 1 Shot Tracker, 1 Shot Commuter, Gunsmith
The following are T1 roles: Tracker, Doctor, Jailkeeper, Hider, Vig, Vengeful, Role Cop

*Note while doctor and vig are not confirmed to exist until T2, they can exist at T1 making them T1 roles.

[Rainbowdash]

Let me think about it for a little... thats what.

I think we popcorn VT/T1/T2 but want to sit here for a little and make sure I dont fly into a trap. My gut is saying that a legit claim so we massclaim (if its a fakeclaim its been planned for a while), but I need to think on this one for at least a few hours.

[Rainbowdash]

Safest claim belongs to T1 though. Are we taking turns claiming VT/T1/T2 now? Who's next?

It is, but I have no good reason to try and discount the claim so I think its mass tier claim time.

Bit popcorns it off. After all tiers are claimed we go with all T2 claims give real role and then all T1 claims. If no pony objects (im seen as town) I would like to be the one that says who goes first for T2 (Bit is first T1 of course)

@Uber - C9++ massclaim D1 is probably the correct move. JK9++ I think the theory translates well enough to say its the correct move. Others are right in saying that this is a complex situation so not allowing scum to discuss it at all is probably right, especially if somepony who knows what they are doing is scum. Go read that one QT I linked. Broke the entire game from the dead QT because of massclaim, town just never realized what it ment and Hikari lied so they lost.

[Rainbowdash]

Popcorns it off means we all claim VT/T1/T2 in whatever order?

Bit chooses who claims next, then that player chooses who claims next, etc until we are all claimed tier. Then I want to choose who starts T2 claim, they popcorn in that group. Then Bit starts T1 claims, and popcorn in that group.

Popcorn essentially means whoever claims choose the next player to claim.

[Rainbowdash]

aite. i'm vt

READ THE GAME

[Rainbowdash]

T1

Next: Hyperion

You mean me right? Want to be sure.

[Rainbowdash]

VT (obv)

Next is Grey

[Rainbowdash]

So you were thinking that you had popcorned to an inactive player.
Possibly to delay/slow things down?

Shush Apple Bloom... big ponies are talking.

Really. This isnt the time for this comment, massclaim needs to be entirely over before we get back into anything game related.

[Rainbowdash]

I was going to say me and BK... but he is being baited by UN and talking about other stuff so me and... a clone of me? I dunno.

Point is nothing but claims should be said. More game related content given better chances are scum pick up on what may be a good claim.

[Rainbowdash]

Can we stop claiming out of turn and reaction testing?

[Rainbowdash]

Cool part is im going to be confirmed town here if any of those who apparently have no idea who I am flip scum because really no way scum doesnt know who their partner got replaced by.

Seriously though now, radio silence, we only have a few claims left to go in round one.

[Rainbowdash]

UN needs to go back to lurking or something. At this point I almost want him dead because worst case he is town and wrong enough to almost lose the game flat out.

Im almost thinking he is scum though for his reaction to noting im potential cleared. Its amazingly dangerous for scum for me to get clear in this setup because im VT and shouldnt have to be a priority kill. His "lol" brushoff of it just strikes me as a way to try and preemptively shut down that chance. If UN is scum at least one of the players who didnt realize I am Hyperion is scum as well.

Would love to see a case though since I have zero clue why he is voting BK and his case on me is apparently that I didnt realize I wasnt voting Bit despite being the entire push behind that wagon. Love to see how his case changes when im now explicitly saying that the entire wagon was me snice that goes against what his case appears to be.

I may be willing to get behind the Rach wagon after the way this page shook down. Massclaim needs to finish first though.

[Rainbowdash]

Not sure what you are talking about regarding daytalk, but my point is that as scum, you tend to be far more intune with what your partners are doing because its more important to you then what town is doing. If somepony doesnt realized I replaced Hyperion, it means that if they are scum I am probably town for that failure to notice. When I pointed this out, UN tried to instantly discredit it, which he would not need to do if he was scum and only town was not realizing who I was. This means if UN is scum, its more likely that he would be hurt by my theory being true and one of them is also scum.

I do think that someone who had no idea who I replaced (you, JF) have an increased chance of being scum if UN is scum. Either way if any of you are scum I am ultra-town.

Where are you getting no daytalk stuff from? I have mentioned a couple time explicitly that scum have no daytalk.

[Rainbowdash]

Im not loving a UN wagon right now, just more upset with him then anything else. He isnt the worst lynch but im not pushing it, probably even post massclaim. This may change if what I think is going to happen does happen though. Yeah cryptic but once massclaim finishes and the next obvious thing happens... I think I may be able to figure it out. This last page is very very very interesting.

Its you, UN, JF who apparently didnt know I replaced Hyperion.

[Rainbowdash]

T1

Inte whats your official claim?

mafia goon

So what tier is that?

Seriously. We need this clarified so we can finish this off.

[Rainbowdash]

Hey RBD vote BK dude

Nah.

Even after massclaim im thinking answer remains 'nah'. Once we get a tier claim we can move on and maybe catch scum from all of this.

[Rainbowdash]

Town would stop trying to rely on mechanics and fucking scumhunt.

Actually I think ive done more scumhunting than... well just about anypony else in the game. There goes that theory. Massclaim does wonders in this game though, as it will tell us exactly what we "should" be up against and once flips start happening it will instantly ID how many VT claims are BS and how many PR claims are BS.

Given that SK varies every level, N1 results should tell us if we have an odd or even amount of fakeclaimers in the PR pool and the first non-goon flip (or possible SK flip) tells us what we are up against exactly and how many exactly are fake in each pool!

Variable setups like this are great.

[Rainbowdash]

Once inte claims a tier I will break it all down and kick it all off again.

[Rainbowdash]

You didnt look at that one game I talked about did you?

I caught EVERY SINGLE SCUM and the SK from massclaim from the dead QT. Then town decided to LIE in massclaim and cost town a forced win because they thought it was a stupid idea to massclaim.

We instantly get how many scum are in two groups of players, the massclaim basically gives us a sensor type role. It semi-breaks this setup and if you are too dense to realize it I could care less. Its physically impossible to ever guarentee a scum lynch, but I can guarentee you that I can correctly identify how many scum are in each of the two groups if there is a truthfull massclaim. Show me one other setup that you can ever do that at the start of D2.

Show me how a massclaim doesnt work. Impossible task right there. Especially due to a high level of not-VT claims. You probably know this because you are not that stupid. Try it though. Would love to see what BS you come up with.

[Rainbowdash]

@inte/UN - If you guys are town you really need to claim for real at this point. Even if you entirely disagree with a massclaim, if you are not VT and you fakeclaim VT you are doing a massive amount of damage to town if you are town. If you lie as town in a ++ massclaim, you are misleading the town as to where the PRs actually are and are going to make town look in the wrong spots and greatly risk accidently confirming scum as town, town as scum, or missing town that would otherwise be cleared by a claim.

We have started it so deviating from it will only result in the most possible damage being done. If you are town you need to legitimately claim, I already have proven to you that at the start of D2 whether im alive or not I can confirm to you EXACTLY how many scum claimed VT and how many claim PR in factors of two. Once you get a couple scum flips you would know exactly to the number how many are in each group.

Its a death blow to scum to make this type of move if we get even a little bit lucky. If town fakelaims though, we asically outted all our PRs and gained nothing from it.

[Rainbowdash]

@Uber - Just letting you know, if you ever claim anything but VT then, outside if it being a situation where you are confirmed town through the setup you are getting lynched. Thats the way this works, if its not a situation where you are confirmed town somehow this is a perfect "lynch all liars" setup since lying as town does critical damage since it greatly misleads correct play.

Same goes for inte who was trying to enact a "lynch all liars" thing earlier and is now not claiming.

Nears thing probably doesnt work. Once inte claims (if its not T2) Bit just fullclaims and we popcorn through the T1s.

[Rainbowdash]

Even though the idea from Near is a good one, I think its not practical because having five be on at the exact same time its a bit of a stretch to also have them all post without being able to see eachothers claims first.

I think Bit claims and we popcorn through the T1s since its going to be unlikely to overlap either way.

T1 claims were: Bitmap, Near, DMS, JF and MS

[Rainbowdash]

Wait. So we have...

Bitmap - Doctor
Near - Doctor
DMS - Doctor
MS - ???
DJD - ???
JF - ???

Really?

Wow. Well whichever of the last three is JK is beyond confirmed town. This is a whole lot of protection, not sure if it too much though since statistically odds of PPPP are same as PKHR since every even is independent. Really unexpected. Eager to see how this all ends. Will laugh if we get a JK and Doctor claim and scum who went for the unconfirmable doctor role gets screwed.

Will wait to give rest of my theory though. This is unexpected though.

What we know:
Whoever is JK is confirmed town
Scum have a Driver unless there are at least two fakeclaims
Mafia are confirmed to have a JOAT
Pool TBD after the last claims

[Rainbowdash]

JF also still needs claiming.

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD: Do you believe all the claims? Inte also claimed T1. Despite him saying LaL applies early on, that is.

Im going to stop commenting until all claims happen.

[Rainbowdash]

I would try and order stuff but I really have all remaining players around even level.

Lets do this

@DJD/JF/inte - Whichever of you are going to claim JK, claim JK and popcorn to somepony else.

I sincerely doubt that there is no JK in this setup so they claim next as they are most confirmed player, then they can pick from the last two.

Yeah im breaking my "not talking" thing but I think it should be said

Also shameless plug my game is in signups if anypony has time... come play the sequel to a best flavor/smooth operator nommed game.

[Rainbowdash]

wow

So if its all true we drew PPPPTIH

It means scum DO have a JOAT and more likely than not have a driver. If DJD wants to hide I would heavily suggest they simply hide behind a random VT since even if most of the scum are PRs, that pool will be drawing all of the kills.

What we know:
JF is confirmed town
There is a JOAT
If a SK flips there are one or three scum in PRs
Above applies if two kills happen in one night
If it becomes likely there is no SK, there is zero or two fakeclaims

I would assume claims (removing JF) of being most likely town to scum would be
MS (role cop)
inte (tracker)
DJD (hider)
Near (doc)
other docs (doc)

I keep trying to come up with something with the hider that gets us a useable result but the JOAT and Driver is too much and im not about to make a gamble that we have a large amount of lying scum that dont include inte and DJD.

I need to think about this. If there is scum in the PRs its almost for sure a doctor, I sorta like going for a scum read over it. I need to think about BK-UN exchange in light of all of this. Mostly agree with DJD about the reads on PRs.

pedit - Ok I no longer like inte at all for that post. He ether is scum or is not thinking at all. He may have become my prefered PR lynch if we go that route. DJD claiming who he is hiding behind is instant death for DJD and no information to us.

[Rainbowdash]

Im conflicted if i should say who i should hide behind now. Theres a busdriver, and his soul purpose seems to be just to fuck me.

JOAT can too. I would say you randomly hide behind a VT claim and hope we get lucky with a confirmed town or dont hide.

Problem is you cant call it out or you die though.

I almost want to vote inte for proposing an instant death for hider plan. I didnt think scum would claim tracker but its possible. Scum have to be in full panic mode with all these claims unless they essentially all fakeclaimed. Hider is terrifying for them though, un-NKable and can clear the VTs? Danger danger, if they know what they are doing though they get a two for one.

[Rainbowdash]

lol yeah inte actually might be scum.

If DJD calls out a target scum can

1) Kill the target with the JOAT
2) Drive DJD to scum (or WIFOM it if he targeted scum)

Scum MUST have a JOAT and probably have a Driver too... DJD doing what inte wants him to ends up with two town dead and zero info gained.

Im going to read over inte again.

[Rainbowdash]

I gotta say its weird as a Tracker to request the Hider announce who he targets.

bingo, level two of why I think inte might be scum

[Rainbowdash]

@inte - Who is scum in the PR claims?
@UN - Same question

No pony do anything much, im still trying to calculate if I can find any semi-forced clearings.

[Rainbowdash]

How are you getting inte-town? I sorta want to lynch him.

His play after the claims is horrible and I dont think comes from a tracker since a trackers first thought would be "I can track the hider" not "here is a plan that fails on every possible level". Plus "two docs are scum" I dont think meshes with his previous reads and seems more like a fabrication to keep suspicion on the doctors allowing him lots of jumping around space on them, and if one flips scum ability to go right back to lynching out of them.

Role cop and hider are both town claims because they have to start clearing players or suicide on someone in the case of the role cop.

Vote inte

Case to come but just all of the play around roles makes me think scum.

@inte - How come you suddenly decided to check your role AFTER you claimed VT?
@MS - Near is almost for sure town because the way he reacted to my massclaim idea was a PR reacting to it.

[Rainbowdash]

Inte looks just too out-there to be Scum...

I think that what BK noticed is a really strong tell though. How does a town tracker forget that they can simply track the hider?

I can see scum forgetting that because they are not really a tracker so are trying to come up with some sort of a plan to look good, but you dont forget what your role actually does. It would be the same belieability of you going "well now JF is going to get killed - oh wait thats right I can protect him!".

That sort of thing doesnt slip your mind.

Also lol question dodge... cant answer "why I looked at my role?".

@MS - Problem is correct inte-scum play for tomorrow screws us over.

Im going to bed.

[Rainbowdash]

No.

We are lynching inte because if he is scum we are eating a mislynch of his choosing. I see what some are saying of "oh he can prove himself" but if he is scum tomorrow I guarentee you his result is "X targeted dead townie" where X is a player that now gets mislynched while scum-inte laughs. If you are not voting him today, you essentially are saying that you believe him to be confirmed town.

Look at his behavior. To be town he would have needed for forget his role TWICE in a very short time period. What tracker forgets they are a tracker and then forgets that they can you know... TRACK somepony? Scum fakeclaiming tracker does.

Will put up other stuff tonight but he is scum. UN needs to get past the tunnel vision if he is town because im not feeling a UN-inte pairing and what is going to happen if BK is town is we mislynch him, inte has us lynch a town doc or something, then we lynch inte who is going to start with "oh bus driver" tactics to maybe be able to save himself because at that point its going to be getting near lylo.

He is so scum its not even funny.

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD: Who do you want the docs to protect tonight?

I would say doctor claims on MS (Bit and Near) and JF (DMS). MS is massive threat if he is town. JF becomes more of a threat as the game progresses. Split is so most likely to be real doc (near) is on most valuable role.

What do you think of inte?

[Rainbowdash]

@UN - And im an expert at stopping bad lynches and breaking setups!

This BK one is giving all types of bad vibes and the late tracker claim is scum one all the way. I mean look at him now, he is trying to line up a lynch on me by trying to be sure you are still thinking im scum no matter what BK flips. Not to mention that but he is running right to you to defend him instead of responding to me himself.

@DGL - Here is my biggest fear about inte-scum. Tomorrow we get a claim of some town PR is scum, and he basically gets a free mislynch. He basically gets a free pass to get any mislynch he wants as scum. When his play doesnt at all match up with a PR let alone a tracker, I think he is scum.

I want everypony's read on inte in their next post. He needs a wagon bad.

[Rainbowdash]

Why does the BK wagon give you bad vibes? Because somebody other than you started it? Pshhhh

I can get behind wagons I dont start. This one feels wrong though since its noise driven. When wagons are noise driven they tend to be more likely mislynches unless its somepony who I trust a whole lot with being able to read correctly, which I dont in this case. Timing too of in the MIDDLE of massclaim also is a bit of a flag. Feel like it was an attempt to put brakes on it.

Plus BK is town if inte is scum, and inte is probably scum so im not touching the BK wagon.

[Rainbowdash]

@UN - You are saying that im ignoring BK, you are doing the exact same thing to inte. What do think of all the claims? How many do you think are scum and who are they most likely? If UN is scum its with a lynchable PR.

@inte - Despite there being quite a few differences between those games, I still dont think its possible you forget your role twice. The closest ive ever come to anything like that is having to look up my character name despite knowing the role, and once forgetting which scum partner had which role. I probably could tell you my role in any game over the past two years at this point if the game is named.

Still things that remain are

1) You proposed a plan that instantly gets DJD killed without catching scum
2) This

Plus BK is town if inte is scum, and inte is probably scum so im not touching the BK wagon.

what about the reverse? are you going to lynch bk when i flip town?

Almost feels like a misinterpritation scum slip
3) You are heavily pandering to UN who is the mane defender of you
4) The "BK used a L-1 sheep vote" is complete BS (this goes for UN too) because NO PONY is going to quickhammer. Making the vote L-1 if you even remotely think they are scum is going to get all sorts of awesome reactions. I still fully support that move from BK, especially as Bit was legit scummy early. I need to go check and see how many who are attacking BK think Bit is scum.
5) You invalidate the entire "my meta is derpy" defense/arugement yourself in this game
6) The "fixed claim" just still sounds like scum BS
7) The fact that it comes AFTER everypony else has tier claimed is worse (almost for sure exists)
8) The fact that it ALSO comes after three doctor claims is even worse (doctors are probable lynch pool)

All of the play from inte is just complete bull. Most of his arguement is attacking BK for something I really have nothing wrong with.

@BK - inte wagon. Lets go.
@DMS - Get back here.

[Rainbowdash]

If you want to boil it down to

1) Claim issues
2) Bad case on BK
3) Pandering/hiding behind/etc the vocal detractor of your wagon

Yeah thats fair enough. 1 and 3 are really strong points though. The claim is bad on all level and your reaction to getting attacked is more looking for ways others can bail you out.

Im wondering how long its going to take for UN to realize you are using him.

[Rainbowdash]

tbh i think hes using me for town cred

So then you are calling him scum?

@DMS - Yes. Inte wagon is great. Look at his response to my attacking him, its mostly a mix of "im not smart" and "save me UN"

[Rainbowdash]

@DMS - Im not sure what much more I can really say about that. I see no way he suddenly decides to check his PM as town after making a fuss over LaL near the very end of massclaim after thinking he is VT the entire time. The position though is perfect, sure he is going to catch flack but who is going to catch the most? The doctor trio. Thats where we are all naturally drawn. Look at this last post now! He isnt even going to commit to anything regarding UN because BK is probably town and he wants options for tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

Two more. We can do this.

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD - Sorry if I have bad memory, but did you have suspicion on Inte prior to his idiocy?

I actually had a townish read on him up untill around the time massclaim started.

[Rainbowdash]

Creative attempt to get out of the lynch by inte there. He is trying to defeat the case on him by making it look like the major points are coming from Rach.

Her vote isnt that good, but its in the right spot and this is the first time he has had much of an issue with it in a very long time. Trying hard to make it look like the wagon on him is bad by attacking the weak link though. Plus there is the whole "inte gets lynched lynchbait RM is no longer easily lynchable"

@inte - RM is probably town by merits of not knowing the setup. Thats a very very very strong town tell in open games. When somepony doesnt know the setup, they usually are town. Especially in this setup where I would be stunned if scum didnt go over role related stuff before the game started. I dont love RM and actually was debating swinging the wagon there at one point when the BK one was taking off, but thats a strong tell and this reeks of last ditch effort of not getting lynched.

Somepony hammer.

[Rainbowdash]

So the case on me is "PR who said they would do X lied" to try and clear a player they thought is strong? What about DJD trying the other thing and eliminating a mislynch in Rach/BK? What about them just taking a middle of the road shot to clear and trusting im town?

The inte lynch was a good one because he was legitimately scummy. If it was all just "oooh he might screw us over" I couldnt have gotten him lynched even if I was scum. That was the counterarguemnt to "he can confirm himself" because lets pretend that Bit and DMS are town, and we lynched Bit D1 instead. D2 inte just opens with "DMS targeted X" where X is dead townie. Or DJD targeted Y. Something like that. We mislynch a player of inte's choosing and then he gets lynched. I thought he was scum, and fully realized that if he was scum he gets a mislynch of his choice at whatever point he wanted.

You do realize massclaim still worked pretty much right? A large amount of living doctors just circle protect.

[Rainbowdash]

@Near - I actually pointed that out yesterday after the massclaim. The question was do scum have a driver or not, which at this point looks likely.

I actually am thinking there is no SK because all the doctor claims and JF survived the night, which means either two of the doctor claims are scum or none are. That means today we are lynching from the VT pool. Only way I see a SK in this setup is if its DGL or if they are massively disconnected from this setup.

If you are going to call Bit scum, you need there to be an SK or for a second PR to be scum. Im almost thinking this is an "all scum in VT" situtaion. Im going to reread UN and BK tonight or tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

We are not lynching a doctor claim. Ever. Unless evidence of a SK surfaces or it becomes overly clear for some reason that there have to be two scum in that pool.

@Near - If we hit non-goon scum we actually are left in a position where scum either cant kill doctor claims. Im going to assume that the N1 kill was strongman, meaning all they really have left are the RB and Bus Drive which are not too dependable in being able to actually take out an exact role if doctors at all coordinate. Each needs a little bit of luck to be successfull. We eventually will likely get in a position with two doctor claims and they just protect eachother forever.

[Rainbowdash]

@JF - The fact that if there is a SK there is exactly one scum in the claimed roles (im discounting odds of three) and if there is no SK you are all town or exactly two scum is nothing? Its one of the following

1) SK in doctor claims, 2 mafia in doctor claims, 1 mafia in VT
2) SK in doctor claims, 3 mafia in VT
3) SK in VT claims, 1 mafia in doctor claims, 2 mafia in VT
4) 2 mafia in doctor claims, 1 mafia in VT
5) 3 mafia in VT

There is your setup. One of these. Its probably 2, 3 or 5, which is why we are lynching VT today.

[Rainbowdash]

More likely scum.

Why

[Rainbowdash]

@BK: You're funny. You do realize the reason we might win this is because we got lucky with all the PRs, right? If we only were to get 3-4 PRs, this strategy would of been really bad. Uber's using logic which I prefer instead of PoE which would of failed if we weren't this lucky.

If we only had a few PRs we wouldnt have had as much scum power to be dealing with and we would be in good shape. Even with a high number of power there is so much protective ability around that its difficult for scum to do anything or get caught by doing something that would otherwise be impossible.

I was *that* close to voting UN here but this new vote isnt something I was expecting and want to go read some more.

[Rainbowdash]

Hey UN... make some noise when you are on or something. I want a back and forth in somewhat real time because if you are town and we mislynch today... no hope left.

I should be around-ish for the next couple hours.

[Rainbowdash]

I see you online UN. Got 30 minutes or so for an AIM-esq exchange here?

[Rainbowdash]

Well my big three things that I want to discuss with you are

1) Your case on BK
2) The fact that you seem to think that there is one scum in the doctors
3) Your new case on DGL

I would rather have this be more of a back and forth Q&A... but if you want to write something breif on each of them first im fine with that and it may be useful for 2 and 3.

[Rainbowdash]

Also im gone at about 6 (or at least have a high chance of being gone) so hopefully we can get this going soon. Equestria and your place share timezones so we match up well there.

[Rainbowdash]

@DMS - Just making sure... you are still voting me because you think DJD might have hid behind me. If you are going to chime in with the "oh the claim stuff" im just going to laugh because im sure you are going to call youself town... and that means that unless you are about to try and argue that there is a SK or there are two fakeclaiming mafia in the rest of the doctor claims... I basically broke this game. Four protective roles alive and scum have at most two of RB/Drive/Strong which are their only counters?

Unless a SK reveals themselves there are either two scum in JF-DMS-Bit-Near (unlikely) or all scum are in VTs. And if all scum are in the VTs... its basically a forced win outside of mislynching twice in a row. So unless you think there is a SK (do you?) my "horrible plan" as UN called it basically gave us a forced win.

There is a way scum can get to JF tonight but im not going to reveal it for obvious reasons. After that though worst they can do assuming no SK is to get rid of one doctor leaving it with either two scum as doctors trying to ride it out or two town doctors...

So worst case we have a VT-VT-VT-doc claim-doc claim endgame with either both docs or two VT claims being scum. So no SK and we basically have it wrapped up and the question simply becomes how fast do we have it wrapped up. Unless you think there is a SK.

So please... where am I scum outside of rampant speculation about a player who EXPLICITLY said that they were going to randomly hide did. I mean heck, if he hid intentionally it was probably behind RM because thats what inte told him to do and lets face it, confirming mislynch bait as town is better than confirming somepony who can more likely prove themselves over time naturally as town.

[Rainbowdash]

Who's scum then?

That the million bit question isnt it? Its why I want to get a diloauge with UN because I think I can pin down scum if I can pin down what he is.

Best I can come up with right now is "Not RM" so im pretty much looking at a UN-BK-DGL-Grey group.

[Rainbowdash]

So all VT claimers.
Do you admit that you are the most likely candidate for DJD to hide behind?

No... im fully confident he didnt hide behind me due to the him being dead thing.

I think he did go with his inital plan of randomly hiding when thats what he said he was going to do. All it proves is that there is at least one scum in VT pool. Even if you are going to aruge that he picked non-randomly, why didnt he hide behind RM because she was a mislynch that he thought was town? Inte suggested he hide there too before he did.

Anything is pure speculation, if that is going to be your case let me know so I can just ignore it and get scum lynched.

[Rainbowdash]

Gah!

See I think RM is town. That unvote from DGL there actually looks really town too. That would leave a really bizzare group of UN-BK-Grey though which just leaves me scratching my head wondering what im reading wrong in this situation because UN-BK just doesnt seem right, even for an agressive player like UN which tends to be the type that busses more often.

@DMS - Confirming anypony would have been a good idea. As hider (sure its slanted because I know im town) I would have hid behind RM or BK because they were potential mislynches and confirming them as town would have prevented their lynches.

[Rainbowdash]

Confirming you would have been the BEST idea.

Well it would have been better than whatever we did because we wouldnt be having this arguement about what he might of or should have done that I cant do anything with than fight speculation with speculation and just gets me annoyed.

And even in your calculations you agree that grey is scum Dashie? If so, lets get rid of him!

I want to read more first and have that discussion with UN. There was a gut town read on him early from me so I need to go back. Either way something is just wrong with my reads and im probably reading a scum as town given where im at. While a "kill all the non-town" reads may be an interesting approach, I dont think its the right one since a mislynch can put us in an ugly tomorrow.

@UN - I should be fairly free tomorrow, is there any point you should have an hour or so semi-availabilty?

[Rainbowdash]

Im heading off for a while right now... but tomorrow from 1-5 or so your time I should be flying around the forums. I dont want to spam post but if I see you post anywhere on site I will make myself known.

Conversation should be able to prove im town, but im just looking to figure out where I at least need to start. I do want to know why you think one scum in the doc claims though.

[Rainbowdash]

@UN/Bit - N1 really didnt matter who did what since strongman kill existed. I just hoped that by leaving all doctors open scum would leave JF/MS alone and go for one of them instead. Strongman typically breaks any doctor/JK actions so there was no way to prevent a scum kill of thier choosing, baiting them into a suboptimal one was the best bet. Tonight obviously doctors and JF should not be saying who they are targeting.

@UN - Yes MS would have been massive threat to scum because of the setup. There is a goon and two other roled scum players, he hits roled scum in fakeclaims or VT and they are confirmed. He target town in PRs and they are confirmed. He targets VT and they are essentially confirmed. He basically was a cop and if the goon claimed VT, they were a pseudo-GF. Have to dash off again, but tomorrow like I said, should be around for all of the early afternoon. Flag me down sometime then.

[Rainbowdash]

Bleh somepony sprung the "you would know there is a SK" thing before I could get more to comment on it. Oddly enough if this is the case, I actually would hedge my bets on scum having claimed doc and not the SK because so many seem to be thinking "its exactly one" of the doctors. Will have to go back and list out how many are doing this, if a SK exists I bet most of the ones thinking as if there is an SK setup wise are scum.

Why apart from the "setup spec" thing is Grey getting wagoned here?

[Rainbowdash]

And here I was expecting more.

[Rainbowdash]

@UN - I should be on and off for the next four or five hours, make yourself known if you are online.

[Rainbowdash]

Figured I would get some chores done before everypony and their mother was off of work, but im back now and should be on for at least the next two hours and then on and off for another after that.

Im here. Lets dance.

[Rainbowdash]

Well... you already ignored it all once but I want to at least get quite a bit of your thoughts and logic on

1) Why you were voting BK (and why you left that wagon)
2) Why you are now voting DGL
3) Why you think there is exactly one doctor who is scum which suggests SK presence

You know... those things which I mentioned four/five pages ago last time you asked what I wanted to talk about.

Cranky needs a new avatar



I suggest that one

[Rainbowdash]

As for 3, i have no idea. Explain to me why that theory is wrong though, that'd be helpful.

You know, what has already been mentioned. The fact that if there is exactly one scum in the doctors there is a SK which really doesnt seem like a logical conclusion.

Also stop saying "maybe town" for JF. He IS town unless you seriously are going to try and sell that we have a SK and two of DMS/Near/Bit are scum, at least one of those with him.

Ive already said my deductions. I think we either have no SK and all scum claimed VT or we have an SK and there is one scum in the doc claims. Either way we lynch a VT claim today. Im just not sure I like a Grey one.

[Rainbowdash]

So based on what you know, what are the possibilities for who's lying?

If there is a SK

Either one of DMS/Near/Bit are lying
OR
Three of DMS/Near/Bit/JF are lying

If there is no SK

None of the doctors are lying
OR
Two of DMS/Near/Bit are lying

The amount of players that seem to think there is an SK for absolutely no reason really is concerning me to the fact that there may really be one and they just scumslipped instead of not understanding the setup. If there ever IS proof of an SK, we just decimate the "one of the doctor" claim group and we should rack up the scum lynches.

Its probably one or zero fakeclaims, so I want a VT lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Now do you have any, say, READS, or SCUMHUNTING you've done? Or is it all conjecture based on the setup?

I'd really like to see some scum reads or town reads, RBD. You've been frightfully thin on those AFAICT.

Rach is town for failure to grasp setup stuff. Its a very reliable town tell and she hit it right on the nose. Even in a varaible setup open game I think the tell holds.

Was trying to figure you-DGL-BK out right now because that should show me who scum is in the VTs, but you keep passing on backing up your pushes.

Grey remains the town read early player, but the wagon on him is one that at least makes me take a second look. The "one in doctors" thing is making me nervous of him, but that has also been dropped by a whole lot of others so its not something to act on until we have really got a little deeper into the game.

BK wagon is still horrible, but horrible wagons can hit scum at times. DGL has been gut town for this entire game but seems to be PoE scum.

Then you... which is where I am a little stuck. I doubt you are scum with BK, and DGL makes little sense with what apparently is a "lol reaction" vote on him when the VTs are taking heat. Then again the unvote from DGL after that looks really town. Either way if you are town it would mean DGL-BK-Grey team which doesnt feel all that likely.

My other big thing is... what happened to BK wagon from day one? That being nonexistant today makes me think something is up.

@DMS/UN/Bit - What changed between D1 and now for you regarding BK?

I think I already know where my vote is headed, just havent really convinced myself that its the right spot due to fear of a mislynch today really threatening to lose this for us.

[Rainbowdash]

Boring. Dashie, Uber, Near, each of you be a dear and give me your top suspect in the VT pool if you please.

Im going to be voting one of UN or Grey I think. RM is town, im not voting DGL and I dislike a BK vote. I think logic dictates that Grey is almost the safe vote in that case, but it just feels SO wrong to just cast a safe vote, even if thats what appears correct.

@BK - You said you have seen UN-scum. Does he like to bus?

[Rainbowdash]

Also, what if JF is scum and lying, what's the state of the game then, and how easy would it be to shoot a couple bitches and clean up the rest of the game?

Fearmongering cheeky scum...

Vote UN

Really, he is trying to make sure nothing gets removed from possible lynches by trying to argue that there is a high chance that three of the claimed PRs are scum.

All his cases are noise and "lol wagon me" while trying to make him being 'right' about the wagon yesterday a reason as to why the one he is voting is scum.

@Grey - We arent lynching RM. Move your vote where it can be useful
@BK - That UN wagon you wanted is back.

Here is what UN is doing. After the inte lynch yesterday he knows that the credibility of me is a little shot down so he is going to play today loud and strong to push through a mislynch on VT while being sure he doesnt do anything to damage the chance of getting anypony removed from the "is town" pool. If you look all he keeps repeating there is that Bit is town, which if UN is scum I almost have to think is true since its putting them in his pocket.

Look how he has set up the VT pool though. He refuses to take a stance on anypony in that pool. THAT is what scum is going to be doing here because they would have to realize that their best chance of winning is to be able to get every possible lynch in that pool. By saying "DGL is scum, BK is scum, RBD is scum, RM is scum, Grey is scum" he can just follow or lead or whatever a lynch of his choice tomorrow.

Seriously. His case is "I was right yesterday" as he just hops around between every possible lynch. Thats all his entire game has been. A string of insults and why he is obviously right without making a case. During that entire time, the only town reads he gives are on the players who are NOT GOING TO BE TOUCHED. Thats not a townread, that stating the obvious that we all know. Anyone who might be lynched he always ends up with "they might be scum" on.

Its so on.

[Rainbowdash]

And then say I'm refusing to take a stance on anyone in the VT pool? OMG you are terrible. Kill yourself.

All your VT stances are "they are scum". Do you actually have a town read on any VT claims? Best I can tell your only ones are on the essentially unlynchables.

Uber is Town. Where's your case on him?

Will get a more comprehensive one up this weekend. Have a friend showing up soon that I havent seen since graduation so that will be end of tonight and most of tomorrow for me.

[Rainbowdash]

@Near - Unless scum want to risk leaving the far more dangerous JF alive, it works as even if we fail to lynch driver or RB today AND tomorrow there are two doctor claims left alive.

I dont get the Grey wagon because it makes sense for him saying that from a town standpoint since all he really is doing is saying that me-RM-DGL is not the scumteam. The "lol first four pages" case from UN and im not moving my vote. That has to be one of the worst cases I have ever seen. Half of those posts are towntells and it really comes down to "didnt think bit was town" which applies to what.... everypony?

UN is scum, Grey probably is town unless its something crazy like UN-Grey-BK and they think a bus like this can semi-clear them enough to get the lynches they need to win

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote please... this is potential mylo.

We are not touching any of the doctors since there is still no evidence of a SK and im going to argue against the chance of there being two scum who claimed doc. If there is a SK, they may actually want to consider a claim if they get votes since we cant really lynch a SK claim and they cant work against the town without losing the game either way.

That means we are lynching a VT claim, and its not going to be rach. She is STILL the most likely of all the VT claims to be town due to the town slip she had over the whole rolecop thing. What scum who knows the setup better than town does in 99% of situations doesnt know something like this? Setup incompetence is a town tell in open games, and im willing to bet all my bits its a towntell in variable setup open games. Im not voting RM today - period. Lurky town is the perfect spot for scum to try and get a game winning mislynch.

I still think UN is scum, which would now be kondi. My problem is im low on how thing work which almost has me buying into the "there is a SK" theory where we have two claimed VTs as scum and a SK as scum, then one mafia as doc. No other pairings really work since RM is prob town and that would mean BK-kondi-DGL scumteam which doesnt make much sense.

Even though this is a mylo... no lynch doesnt work. It actually makes things worse for us.

UN was so scum though and just repalced out for whatever reason, probably mod told him he wouldnt allow him to scream me down so he ragequit overnight - it comes right after the "be civil" mod warning. Look at the approach to all the wagons yesterday, he never even MENTIONED a read on grey until a wagon showed up on there and after that it was "obv scum lololol" as I am fighting against all his other pushes. He kept moving away from whatever I did because he knew all his cases were nothing, he kept all his reads on VT as "null to scum", its exactly what scum in VT pool with lots of other scum would be doing. He is so scum its not even funny. I would say with DGL... but not sure who else. I still want to buy into theory of "SK and one doc is mafia" but im not too sure on it.

[Rainbowdash]

@DMS - No... we are lynching Uber or DGL. No pony else is getting touched today. Im town, I got nothing really on BK outside of PoE, RM is town for the slip and that everypony is overplaying lurking when the exact same thing is going on in every single game she is in regardless of her alignment. Really RM is perfect mislynch fodder at this point in the game.

@Near - I dont like lynching because it brings us from mylo to lylo, so a mislynch right now doesnt for sure cost us the game. A mislynch if we let scum kill does for sure cost us the game. We do get the added benifit of a flip but im not sure its worth the price.

[Rainbowdash]

You are funny if you actually think I will be lynched in this game. Im seriously the least likely player out of everypony here to get lynched.

What "bad reads" too? Only one ive actually been wrong on so far has been inte. I was more or less RIGHT on Grey being town and have been more or less right about everything else. Just making sure though, you are arguing what exactly... I am part of a scumteam in which there is no SK and I orginized a massclaim in which at least six town PRs would claim?

Thats a laugh.

No lynch is horrible too. What did I already say about that?

[Rainbowdash]

What's the case on Uber? Or better, WHERE is it?

Its coming. Probably in a few days.

[Rainbowdash]

Full stop. Please.

Im 95% of the way to figuring this out but only half way to figuring out how to actually show it if its even possible to.

[Rainbowdash]

I think I have two scum caught. Let me find last one here and will see what I need to do, sad part is that it might actually not be kondi afterall.

[Rainbowdash]

Please please please stop voting while I figure the rest of this out.

I really need whatever of you posting here that are town to actually start acting like town because you are NOT making this easy on me.

[Rainbowdash]

Stop doing what you are doing! All of you!

Post if its relevant. Dont post if its not!

SIMPLE!

[Rainbowdash]

LOL, did I just read RBD say she caught two scums. I am so eager to hear her case.

Well it starts ugly - I think we already lost without basically a miracle because im pretty sure we are dealing with a SK at this point. A lot of the more questionable players seem to keep heavily alluding to thinking there is scum in the doctors, which if mafia claimed doc both mafia and SK would know to be a fact.

That said, we dont lynch the doctors and it would be either DMS or Bit that is the mafia in the group. I think its actually DMS because he is open to the vote on Bit, which makes zero sense from somepony who is not looking for scum in that group. I even think there is scum there and im not supportive of a lynch in that group because the SK will claim if they are close to being lynched if they get ran up because the only chance of them winning is a prisoners dillema-esq situation since lynching them loses us the game. Also SK shouldnt NK from here on out unless we mislynch, stating the obvious but want to increase our chances as much as possible of pulling this out.

Now - all of that said, I may have jumped the gun on trying to catch BK because he was more of a sacractic tone in a "if I get lynched what matters what happens next" could easily mean that he is just saying "any NK loses" which I thought was him saying that the game continues after his lynch which means he would be scum, but overlooked a NK.

I need to go back and see who else has heavily thought that there is a SK. I know I saw some of that from UN... but I think that would require a UN-DMS-[DGL/BK] scumgroup. I guess I could see UN bus hard but im not too sure. Seems like he would try to get RM mislynched instead. Maybe UN-DMS-DGL is it with the SK in BK/RM.

Anyways, so much is pointing to the SK being real at this point, that I think that I need to actually start acting and getting reads as if they are real. DMS voting Bit makes ZERO sense from DMS-town here unless he is beyond convinced there is a SK, and I dont see how you have that from his standpoint. Ive thought it from time to time, but casting a deciding vote on it just is wrong from town shoes. I can easily see him making that move as scum knowing that there is scum in that group (him), but just forgetting that we arent lynching a doctor claim today period.

Really I think the only way we really lose this is if its VT-Bit-Near and there is no SK, and Near has been most likely of doc claims to be doc since the massclaim occured.

Im betting two scum and a SK in the VT claims. SK should claim if they get ran up (debating on how to do a counter if mafia fakes it).

I realize this doesnt say who I want to lynch (a not RM-VT claim) but thats all I got right now, just want to float it and see what type of reponse outside of DMS voting me we get. Even though I started to go back on it, im almost thinking kondi again for voting Bit (why does VT vote a doctor claim?).

[Rainbowdash]

@RBD - Maybe Bitmap is like, you know, annoying-as-fuck? He dodges questions by answering them in a nonsensical way and keeps jumping erratically here and there as if his life is a fucking music video.

So you put a vote out in mylo on somepony who you thought was for sure town because he was annoying?

Note how as soon as DMS gets challenged he jumps right back into the 'any VT but kondi' stance. I think I actually hit the nail on the head with that last post.

[Rainbowdash]

@kondi - We are lynching VT today. As much as I think that DMS is scum, I realize that being wrong there is probably an auto-loss on the spot and essentially a guarenteed loss where one of us has to decide if the SK or mafia wins in a lylo. It makes a HUGE difference who we lynch because if we lynch wrong, doctors can help not force the SK to hit scum. If you agree with me on the SK thing... why would you ever vote Bit? Even if you like me think Near is town... town PoV you have a 50% chance of hitting scum in doctors and 75% chance of hitting scum (50% hitting mafia) in the VTs.

Only other option is to no lynch and hope scum kill a doc, which im really not happy doing since as of now a mislynch can still be countered with a good SK shot.

@DMS - Masochism is passe... I know im not mafia so how about you watch the first two MLP episodes instead... with a commentary that proves you actually watched them.

[Rainbowdash]

What part of "doctor lynches are bad" dont you get?

Assuming we mislynch today, scum probably are sitting on a RB or Driver action still. If we assume one doctor is scum and we lynch one, its easy to get a kill in on whoever they want and we would need a SK to hit correctly to still have a remote win chance, and at that point it likely removes any hope of a town win if the SK knows how to play.

If we mislynch VT, we have a situation where there are two doctor protections floating around so its much harder for scum to for sure get a kill in, and the SK should have a near sure thing of hitting mafia regardless.

Im not letting a doctor lynch through, and you have another thing coming if you think im going to let a Bit lynch through.

[Rainbowdash]

Wait wait wait... so you wont listen to me but you WILL listen to the player you think is scum?

I could back a DGL or kondi lynch. Im not sure which more but those are the only two I will support outside of a slip or something.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, if there is SK among VT do you think that the SK was intentionally not shooting? SK in PR may withhold his shot, but SK in VT would not. Also, if SK shot, JF would not be SK's primary target... He would have tried to target one of the scums from the VT pool.

This. There was all that talk about if there is a SK, then there is at least 1 fake claimer in the docs. If the SK was from the VT pool he would have just killed.

Look at night actions though. Kills can be blocked. N1 JF was protected and DGL was jailed. N2 Near/DMS claim to have cross protected and JF targeted somepony.

SK easily could have had all kills blocked or targeted same player as scum.

With the confliction over DMS/Bit... it actually may be a good spot to no lynch as I think about it and have both DMS/Bit target Near. I just dont think Near dies since I doubt scum would kill JF without using actions or only a RB. They probably used the near guarenteed solution of using the driver. I doubt scum would pass on a kill here and any flip really would be nice to have at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

You always have an excuse. I'm also really surprised a super busy town player wouldn't replace out for the good of her team.

Look at ANY GAME she has played recently. The exact same thing is happening across the board in games she is town in.

Do you have anything that is not lurking? If so now would be the time to say you have something concrete and not an albiet annoying - null tell.

[Rainbowdash]

She did the same thing here and ended up as Mafia Rolecop.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=22548

And here as vanilla. Its a site wide thing thats not indicative of alignment. That game is why ive been sorta defending her for a while over the activity thing because she had flipped town but the game just now ended so I haddent been able to use it.

[Rainbowdash]

RBD, did you totally miss my case?

I just dont think its a super strong one. Im not keen on bending over backwards to counter a case on RM though at this point but I guess will if I have to. When most of the case in at least most ponies mind circles back to the null tell of 'lurking' though I think that RM is either town or scum being bussed. Given that I cant tell it apart, im not too happy piling on the easy lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Im trying to figure out here if kondi-trevor would really be this buddy buddy as scum... Trevor is probably the doctor fakeclaim, but im half WIFOMing myself out of buying that kondi is scum.

We need a votecount and probably some unvotes. I think only way we really lose this one at this point though is if kondi is the town out of the VT claims.

Really the Bit votes are 100% scum driven. Any doctor claim vote is. Trevor/DMS is my strongest scum read and I absolutely refuse to vote him today.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay, im tired of being voted yet nopony actually giving a single reason as to why they are voting me. One of my voters is scum (DMS/Trevor) kondi im not as sure of but lean scum, im just not sure enough to actually throw out the vote.

Wait.

Actually its completely cool for me to be voting because the only way its not going to hurt is if kondi is SK and only way he can get quick hammered is if ts a DGL-RM-doc claim team. But bleh that would be putting a ton of stock into my RM read which the defense of is as much based on odds as it is anything else. UN just giving up the game feels scummy though, I played with him a bit at SoL and while he actually did do some rage self-hammers as town he did that a whole lot more as scum. F2F meta is hard to cross compare.

Consider this intention to vote kondi but I really want to be more sure of this one first. I think its the right and a safe vote though. Worst case we lynch SK today, that costs us the game. Funnily enough hitting town may keep us in it as the SK has to kill mafia.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok im going to bit the bridle at this point and put the vote down

Vote kondi

For the recent things we have

1) The vote on Bit. This makes 0 sense from a town perspective - the doctor claims should be entirely off limits unless there is physical proof of a SK, which makes me think kondi is scum who knows a SK exists. This meshes with the fact that UN constantly seemed to assume there was a SK.
2) Even in his last post, he continues to try and look like he is scumhunting, but never actually changes his original arguement of me being scum but goes elsewhere. This is giving the illusion of scumhunting while actually just sitting on me without giving a single reason as to his vote.
3) He was afraid of voting me. I think this actually is a tell since he knows im good at being able to argue as town and get who I want lynched. It wasnt until I started making it clear I still thought he was scum and I was considering votin Bit to be a scumtell that he abandoned that wagon. Even with that he would not actually vote me until he thought that there was support to my wagon. This is not town mentallity.

Im thinking its kondi-trevor-psyche as scum with one of BK/RM as the SK. Scum flip means that all doctors are protecting Near, even though it probably doesnt work unless kondi is scum who hasnt used power.

[Rainbowdash]

Oh.

I mean, where are you getting SK-Mafioso distinctions, then?

I dont think BK or RM are scum. But doctor-mafia means one of them picks up the SK slot. I would be willing to swap you and RM I guess, but im not at all happy lynching RM because I really think she would be in the exact same spot as town, mafia or SK here and given that I cant distinguish it, im not really going to try and just go with my null-town read.

[Rainbowdash]

Your case isn't convincing enough because it still seems endemic to kondi's playstyle. But kondi's style is pretty unwavering, so it doesn't really matter.

Im tired of hearing the "just VI" arguement, especially regarding players like kondi who while they arent all stars are far better than most give them credit for. If you want to argue horrible player at least use that on Umbrage or somepony like that who truely is crappy beyond reason at this game.

If it quacks like a duck



duck says it all

duck must be terminated

most awesome case ever - it actually has video

we can still turn this around if you actually vote kondi

[Rainbowdash]

Already explained that the extent of my scumread on Bitmap made it not matter that he was a Doctor. When someone is scum, and you feel sure of it, you lynch them. Besides, if we never lynch Docs, there will most likely never be proof of an SK. They are Docs, you know. You're also ignoring the fact that you're assuming there's an SK for no apparent reason as well, other then the fact that you have a scumread on shotgun's slot. From an outsider's view, not as scummy as wanting a lynch on a Doc because of it, but still assuming there's an SK.

I think there is a SK due to how so many are very intent on there being a SK and actually have laid down doctor votes which I dont really see if there is no SK. Either way while I do agree with there being a SK, im not about to essentially risk the entire game on there being one AND being correct over who it is. Also in the end did you just say "I am scummy but you are sort of scummy for doing something similar"?

BS. Allow me to direct you to my reasoning, which you haven't defended against:

You mean that case thats basically 'isnt obv town' and 'pushed inte lynch'? Yeah thats basically a case full of logical fallacies and burden of proficency. Im not the best town player in existance and have complete ability to be wrong about some things.

Also are you using "did not want to lynch doctor claims" as a scumtell now when in response to part one you used thinking there is a SK as a scumtell? You cant have it both ways you know.

More BS. You're good at arguing, and that's a true statement regardless of alignment. There's also no point in voting someone that won't be lynched, and I felt sure that both of you were scum at the time.

So as town you were afraid to vote somepony who you thought was scum and had a case to back it up? I dont believe that one, especially when you have no problem voting me with only a single non-reasoned vote of support. The fact that DMS/Trevor had no reason almost makes it WORSE because if im going to snap on somepony for voting without reason its not a bad bet it would be DMS who I already said I thought was scum.

[Rainbowdash]

No, I'm saying that you're saying my assuming there's an SK is scummy while yours is not. Either they both are or both aren't.

Thats not what im saying exactly.

There is nothing wrong with at this point in the game assuming there is an SK though. By voting a doctor though, if there is no SK, it would cost us the game if we mislynch there. Despite it being probable to the extent that im going to scumhunt like there is a SK, we do NOT lynch as if there is one, because a doctor mislynch with none is an auto-loss. That is why its scummy, as town I think you would notice the fact that if you were wrong you lose. As scum I think you just notice that there are lynchable doctors and go for it.

You pushing the inte lynch is the main reason you are scummy to me. All you're doing is calling out the bad parts in the case without addressing the damning part.

I would lynch inte again in a heartbeat. He was legitiamtely scummy and botched his claim badly. Feel like I should refrence Spy here. He was scummy, he claimed like he was scum, I lynched him beause I thought he was scum. End of story.

You've constantly been against lynching the Doctors despite the fact that it was safe until today. You were also against there being an SK until today, when thinking there was an SK previously meant a Doctor lynch was okay.

The base of the scumminess is in the first sentence, and is why I bothered to point it out. The second sentence may be a coincidence even if you are scum, but there's the possibility that you wanted to show belief in an SK all along but couldn't because it would make a Doctor lynch okay.

Ive proven already why a doctor lynch is never okay out of there essentially being a confirmed SK. Are you trying to aruge here that I am scum because I tried to prevent a doctor lynch over the last couple days?

[Rainbowdash]

Stop trying to play dense, you are not this dense.

You agree with the assessment that a doctor is lying, if we lynch one of the real doctors there is one left, SK has to hit mafia and scum can just kill whoever they feel like (probably last doctor) to end up with a next day if there is one of 2 mafia, SK, 2 VTs, which then progresses into a prisoners dilema best case scenario.

If we mislynch VT there at least is two protections floating around on top of the SK trying to hit scum. Chances are still bad but there is a better chance to have the lucky break we really need at this point to actually occur. We hit VT there are SOME chances even though its going to require two crosskills. We hit doctor best we can hope for is SK took strongman (not likely given one kill a night) and there is a game ending PD crosskill.

This one is almost for sure already out of our hooves and whoever lives longest decides which of scum and SK get the win, but if we hit mafia today we still have that little glimmer of hope that doctors come through. If we hit VT today that fades, but still is there. We hit a doctor and we just snuffed out that hope.

But really, the insurmountable proof that you are scum from this is you are 100% willing to say there is a SK. I dont get this, even if you think it, the fact that are voting like you are, on something that you cannot prove WITHOUT being scum, is why you are scum. Yes, I am betting a SK exists - but VOTE as if that feeling is true? No. If you are wrong about there being a SK and lynch a doctor, well thats the game right there.

Base the entire game on a hunch of what MIGHT be in the setup? Town doesnt do that when they have other scum reads. Thats why you are scum. Thats why Trevor is scum. Thats why ive caught you and am rapidly putting this puzzle together.

@Near - We are not lynching the lynchbait today because its impossible to tell what she is. Her lurking is an absolute null tell. Kondi is voting as if they are 100% certain there is a SK, which only can occur if they are scum. Town doesnt make a vote that if a setup speculation is wrong they instantly lose. Scum who forgets that what town woudl think makes that vote though.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay I would put RM over BK as last scum from that post. Really dont think BK can be anything but SK at this point and if he is I would rather give him the win as SK than mafia the win /pandering to SK.

[Rainbowdash]

Alright. RD is pretty much basing his scumread on "voted a scumread that was in a riskier group," which is exactly what he did with inte.

Im voting you because you are playing with assumptions that can only be guarenteed true from a scum alignment. There is no way town makes a vote that if they are wrong about a possibility they lose instead of voting somepony they think is scum but are afraid to vote.

So if everyone except for one person has Rach on their scumdars... why is she still alive?

Because I keep stopping the lynch from happening since I dont like it at all.

I ain't scum. If I'm scum as of now, then either Trevor and Near are also scum. I think this was pretty clear.

This is why Bit is town. Scum doesnt miss why they might be scum this badly.

Bit - The arugement is there is a SK, which means one of the doctor claims is scum. Dont think anypony is arguing one mafia in VTs with a pair in the doc claims.

[Rainbowdash]

Anypony else notice how kondi has today gone from and initial "there is a SK - vote bit" to slowly meandering through voting me when that door was opened for him, to now voting for lurker lynchbait?

Couple that with a nice 1-2 punch of useless/fear mongering post (1902) to AtE (1907)... we got ourselves first scum. Trevor is probably the second. Last three VT claim will have last scum and the SK in it.

[Rainbowdash]

Almost everyone here thinks or claims to think Rach is scum. Why are we lynching kondi?

Im not sure how many more times I can explain this calmly. There is a good chance its zero but I will try.

RM case is based of lurking which is not that great of a case, I dont care what else you say fits, its lurking to most players. Because of that she is prime lynchbait for today, and even though only one of the other VT claims is genuine, im not going to actually lynch based on 'lurking' or anything like that. Her content is little and sparratic, but I think with other scum flips first its not that hard to tell if she is mafia or not.

Her lynch is stupid. Yes she is a non-presence in the game but its a bad lynch. She IS the mislynch for scum as far as im concerned.

[Rainbowdash]

Your logic is still broken. Just because I have other scum reads doesnt mean I dont think you are town or shouldnt be voting you or anything like that. Your post is sorta what I think. You are scum, psych is probably scum, last one is either BK or RM but there is no way im touching a "one of" player.

Im thinking only reason you arent trying to get psych lyched here is scum with him or not, you know its going to make him vote you. Thats more scum fear than your intial fear of voting me.

@Psych - you should vote kondi since you seem to think he is scum. Only way we lose if you are town is if you really are arguing a RM-BK-Near team. Since any other grouping would have hammered by now. Taking the bus might get you town cred you need.

[Rainbowdash]

The logic still works because there is physical proof for you that there is at least one scum in {Psyche, Rach}.

Im not aruging that point. I think you are scum and psyche is a very good bet as well and would vote him over BK/RM without ANY form of hesitation. The way you leave him as a second suspect to me and then move to RM when its obvious you arent getting my lynch makes me think he is a good pick for your partner. Him thinking you are scum but continually stalling over the actual vote just makes me all the happier lynching him when you flip scum.

kondi-psyche-trevor are mafia
SK is one of BK/RM

Simple stuff.

Look! Again he is stalling the vote for you. He clearly thinks you are scum but wont vote, sure he probably will now vote with a "yeah I will" stance but I will take the bus. All his posts are fishing for reasons NOT to vote you.

[Rainbowdash]

Cute.

Use "look at thier last post" arguement when I call them scum in my last post.

If we are going to play that game look at who kondi has voted and what the gamestate is at each vote. Voting Bit? Support is there first. Voting me? Support is there first. Voting RM? Support is there first.

In a mylo situation town throws out three different votes each one only when somepony else is ready to support that wagon for no reasoning between the vote changes? No.

[Rainbowdash]

Good. That doesnt sound like a scumhammer so I think we are still in business.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok screw this.

Im claiming because im not about to lose a game I deserve to win. There obviously is a really unlucky SK, thats me. Hyperion picked NK immunity so that kinda screwed me up.

Scumteam is Pysche-RM-Trevor (99% sure Trevor over Bit). I will lynch them in any order you guys want.

Really im not getting lynched here while lurker #1, lurker #2 and chilling doctor did nothing.

N1 I targeted MS just incase scum werent smart.
N2 Near blocked my DMS kill (assuming I didnt get JKed).
N3 I tried to kill DMS again (if I was wrong I was losing either way) so im not sure if it got blocked or scum figured out I was SK and I got RBed or something.

I will lynch and of those three in any order. Im not letting them win though when I am the one that has got every important lynch through. I am the one that got a massclaim to happen (why do you think I did it? no clue there were six PRs). I really deserve this more than them on EVERY FREAKING LEVEL.

Bit and Near can take their pick of who wins this. I dont want to lose to them though.

Since he started it

Vote Trevor

If he is town mafia probably eek me out either way, but this way we get the scumflip, Near-Bit can continually cross protect and town has best win chance if we all get unlucky.

V/LA rest of the day and probably a decent amount into tomorrow. Small chance I get a post in.

[Rainbowdash]

Incase that wasnt explicit enough

1) I am SK
2) Mafia team is Pysche-RM-Trevor
3) Bit and Near pick who wins

[Rainbowdash]

Also touching into my psychic side... next post from Trevor is going to have a vote on Psyche/RM

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Bit

Ok.

Full truth time

Im scum (obv) and was hoping I could just win the SK arguement and was right about it being Trevor to make it sound more legit. Bit actually is the SK. I was trying to find a way NOT to masscaim D1 but couldnt since it was obvious Near was a easy PR kill.

Basically it comes down to if town thinks that scum deserves the win or if they think Bit deserves the win because its impossible for them to win and we can make it so.

I was right about Bit D1
I got a claimed tracker lynched
I kept partners safe
I SOMEHOW got kondi lynched
I figured out how to use scum roles to get PRs dead

I think I deserve this one over Bit. Its either going to No Lynch where town has no chance of winning or we just end it here with scum win.

[Rainbowdash]

You werent supposed to tell them we still have that...

Powers say we no lynch it basically wastes a week of our lives and we just eat up the NK immunity forcing a win for us (kill and block Bit)... followed by any of our lynches and a 1:1 trade to a 2-2 win.

Bit backs down FAST.

@Psych - Vote Bit.

[Rainbowdash]

They have a force loss coming either way. This way they just dont waste two weeks of their life getting there.

[Rainbowdash]

You cant guarentee them anything unless we cooperate which means YOU would have to gamethrow. I already ran all those scenarios. Will prove it tonight after I get home (if other stuff hasnt started) that they are already in a forced loss.

[Rainbowdash]

I dont want scum QT posted.

Bit doesnt deserve this at all. Im basically the only reason he didnt die early, he played suboptimally the entire game, and in the end his wins because town derps hard and game throws (really NK immune Bit hands scum the game?).

Crap play all over, win condition is messed up badly. Whoever made the win conditions, Bit for playing poorly and stumbling into a win, Psyche for not posing what I told him to in the QT, kunk and trevor for game throwing... This game was stupid.

@DMS - This game was a forced draw. Town fucked it up and gave SK a win. What WAS supposed to be done - No kill, 1:1:2 endgame, no one can kill. At that point Bit is forced between surrendering a forced draw and small chance of a win by killing a doc and thats it.

This is the least deserved win ive ever seen a SK take. Bit only didnt die because I kept them alive the entire game because I figured there was no way a SK would play that badly. Its not like it was intentional play either.

Yes im bitter because I lost a game where I cant really have played any better only to get robbed by a shit win condition, shit SK play, and then game throwing town. Nothing else to say.

Will say it again though

I do not want scum QT posted

[Rainbowdash]

Ok that was probably a bit over the line, but I just dont think Bit played a good game. Most of the reason he lived was because of me keeping him alive, and the only times he did anything on his own he killed the one town in four players and then made a vote that I think anypony should have been able to see through as a strongman claim.

Im just pissed that I lose what should be a win, that gets turned into a forced draw, that then gets gamethrown to somepony who mostly got carried through the game.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok side note then since its theory

Massclaim in this game is best early, but not D1. If all deaths are scum/VT, it works D2 very well. When there are PR deaths it better to delay a bit... but I would never say later than D3. Really was unsure of if it was good or not to massclaim D1 from scum perspective since there were obvious PRs out there. Shoulda driven myself N1 with a VT like I was debating for a little.

@Bit - Why would you ever kill MS night one? Scum needed to wipe him out more than you did, killing JF would have been far better, even if it gave away existance of a SK.

[Rainbowdash]

This game.... I'm sad I died. End looked fun.

Well... from F6 it was forced draw and just had to go through motions, town physically couldnt win the game without it being handed to them.

No lynch
Scum NKed
No lynch
Scum NKed
No lynch
Either Bit kills doc - No lynch - Crosskill and town win
or
No kill perpetually - game drawn

Last two town just forgot/didnt realize that Bit was Strongman so turned three way draw into SK win.

@UN - Go rage replace some more? Really what was that all about?

Not getting DGL hate either, he played better than almost the entire town this game. Always was right where he needed to be on wagons and stuff like that.

[Rainbowdash]

@Near - Thats why correct play was for RM to explicitly say "If Bit kills a doctor, we no lynch and I will target him tonight". That stops anything but a draw, since there was no way for scum to win without a very bad move from the SK or town giving a 1:1:1 probable win for them to us.

Its what I told Psyche/RM to post in the QT but they never did. I mapped the force draw and it got ignored which adds to my pissed off-ness this game.

[Rainbowdash]

But RBD, RM's words cannot be used to predict her actions. It entirely possible that all three factions were satisfied with a draw at 2:1:1.

Actually it can. In a 1:1:1 situation given the SK win condition, mafia has to kill the SK or they have no hope of winning. By that logic a strongman SK would automatically lose the game if they kill a doctor because there is no option left for scum except killing the SK. As doctors cross protect a NK immune SK is out of the question of being able to make it a 1:1:1 situation.

I ran this through over and over, and there was no way for any faction to get a win without a massive blunder from a different faction.

@Psyche - Playing for a draw is playing to your win condition if there is no way that you have control over your ability to win, but simply your ability not to lose. A draw was the best all factions had to hope for outside of a game critical mistake such as forgetting that the SK has a strongman ability.

This was a forced draw outside of poor play from the day we should have had the win but didnt

[Rainbowdash]

RBD. You are correct that mafia has no hope of winning unless they target the SK.

But SK also has no hope of winning unless they target the mafia.

Thats why its a draw. Neither can kill the other without the town winning while at the same time neither can be lynched.

I spent a good couple hours trying to see if there was a salvageable win and I really dont think there was one that doesnt include "and somepony throws the game by accident" which is what happened, but not in our favor.

[Rainbowdash]

Well...

from 3:2:1 no lynch is the only option and one scum dies while we try and kill the SK bringin us to

2:2:1

Here it should no lynch, where SK should target scum again and this time if scum hit the SK it brings it to 2:1 where scum loses
If scum kill a doc its 1:1:1 where town wins again its forced then to

2:1:1 with the town advantage. At this point it gets tricky and is where deals are made

Mafia can only win with a dead SK which has to happen at the same time or later than a dead doctor - Mafia is playing for a draw or major blunder
Town has to have a crosskill or a SK lynch (mafia wont allow) or a mafia lynch with SK NK immun (SK wont allow) - Town is playing for a crosskill ie 1:1:1 where they win. Technically best town move was to selfvote and hope scum missed that.
SK can win any 2 player endgame, so that is what they are aiming for, this cant happen without strongman and town blunder (did happen) or mafia gamethrowing

In the 2:1:1 the no lynch is forced

The theory behind the 1:1:1 in day is:

Town will not vote as it loses them the game
This means its a no lynch
As its a no lynch, mafia must kill SK to have a win chance as SK will otherwise target doctor
SK knows they will be killed, so will avoid this scenario as strongman - In it they decide if they want to kill doctor for mafia win or mafia for town win
Doctor just chills, they are screwed either way and it comes down to what SK does.

Because of this, a 1:1:1 is something that is a forced loss to the SK so something a SK will not allow to happen. A 2:1:1 cannot become a 1:1:1 without SK allowing it to SO a 2:1:1 is a draw.

A 2:2:1 is forced to become a 2:1:1
A 3:2:1 is forced to become a 2:2:1

That means a 3:2:1 with ideal play is a draw. Town just blundered so it went to a SK win.

[Rainbowdash]

...or you could have not claimed (like you should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

Going for SK was the only thing that worked because to be town I would have to believe that all doctors were fakeclaiming or be willing to lynch a partner. One made zero sense and the other cut deep into win chances. It was one of those things where not winning right there basically made it impossible for us to win period.

...or we could have lynched you the day before that (like we should have) and had an entirely different outcome.

UN destroyed your slots credibility so all I had to do was logic attack what was left, which attacking a doctor made really easy to do.

[Rainbowdash]

SK can do whatever in that situation because they auto-win any 1:1 endgame, all they have to do is have a successful kill and live.

Mafia has to kill the SK, doing anything else is an auto-loss, so mafia targets SK is a given. If they dont kill and SK kills, they auto-lose.
SK knows they are dying so they play kingmaker and give the game to town or scum and hope a kill failed for some reason.

Breaking down more

M->T and SK->T = SK win
M->T and SK->M = SK win
M->SK and SK->T = M win
M->T and SK->T = SK win
M->null and SK->T = SK win
M->null and SK->M = SK win
M->T and SK->null = SK win
M->SK and SK->null = M win
M->SK and SK->M = T win

Only way M has a win is to kill the SK, nothing else can get them a win and a draw requires SK help. SK wins if they dont die and the kill, so they will kill.

In a 1:1:1 a strongman SK will lose 100% of the time, but they get to decide who wins.

[Rainbowdash]

In 1:1:1, aside from doctor protecting the SK, SK has exactly the same power and win condition as mafia. No?

Ruleset says SK auto-wins any two player endgame. Its why the wincondition of mafia is screwed up in this setup. I do agree with SK beats mafia in 1:1, but at any other even number mafia should win.

The way roles were rolled, it became literally impossible for us to win this game. Its why im pissed off still, the SK never makes a (logical) kill or even kills in most cases, so we play assuming there is no SK and are trapped in a force loss from the start essentially. So bad play from the SK costs us the game when I still think mafia played almost an ideal of a game as possible.

[Rainbowdash]

You know what you guys should of done?

Lynched me D1.

We would have lost. I was terrified that inte was really a SK. D1 SK lynch with the massclaim was an auto-town win.

If SK won, his play wasn't really so bad. Especially if it drove us to make assumptions that led to our downfall.

Ehhh... it was unintentional good play. Arugeably given that they were suspect yeah it was smart to stay hidden, but that wasnt why Bit didnt kill on the second night. Ignoring the fact that we had to kill the role cop and hitting the only VT role when trying to kill scum just makes me think Bit got lucky more than played well. Ive seen worse play, but honestly I dont think they played what you could call a good game as SK - can point to many SKs who lost and I would say were better without second thought.