Open 435: Great Idea Mafia (Day 4)

[DoubleJD]

OMGUS then VOTE: channeldelibird

[DoubleJD]

im sooooo confused right now

[DoubleJD]

because hes scum VOTE: evilpacman

[DoubleJD]

Izak, what do u think of the evil wakawaka? (evilpacman)

[DoubleJD]

Hrmmmmm UNVOTE: pacman

[DoubleJD]

Well that clears that VOTE: pacman. youre on his wagon but were pushing against it. i thought some weird kind of busing mason thing was going on. guess not lol

[DoubleJD]

Theres too many things for them to claim, and limited protection roles. I'd be ok with it day 2 though with potential results from people

[DoubleJD]

I think BB, mister, cbd, and zara are town

[DoubleJD]

You're waaaaaaaay over analyzing here kondi. Giving you town cred doesnt necessarily stop your wagon, and its only page 4 so its not like either wagon is inevitable. He could be doing it just so you keep your unvote and its strictly a move to help slow his wagon. Either way, i agree with zoraster

[DoubleJD]

I dont see how what goomba said is indicative of any role.

Hard to believe pacman acts like that as scum though, UNVOTE: pacman.

[DoubleJD]

Maybe im assuming too much. Pacman, what role do you think goomba is based on that reaction?

[DoubleJD]

Im happy sheeping you VOTE: yellowbounder. the case pacman made in that post wasnt unhelpful at all

[DoubleJD]

You friggen crazy? VOTE: mcstabb

[DoubleJD]

Katsuki, why do you still think izak is scum?

[DoubleJD]

Izak's reactions and stance to molla don't come from a town state of mind...

oh and pacman is voting scum with me so. :/

CDB you wanna lend a hand with a wonderful izak wagon?

Really just this? What do you make of the garararrrrararrrar and izak interaction?

[DoubleJD]

VOTE: izakthegoomba this might be L-1, im not sure if the unvotes were from the izak wagon.

I dont see how the pr thing, or questioning the pr thing, will help us figure out peta's alignment.

[DoubleJD]

I need to reread, so prod dodge and bbl

[DoubleJD]

Based on yellow's flip: Izak, peta, and axxle probably arent mafia. Mister intended to hammer...but mafia mcstab was 6th on the wagon so no credit there. Quilford quit yellow's wagon early with this post 227, which looks very scummy imo. Also i hate his 'all mafia are dead' post, i can see that easily coming from another living mafia player.

Katsuki looks scummy to me, izak still seems townie to me along with peta. Nullish on the rest.

@Delibird: What do you make of Quilford?
@axxle: What do you make of izak?

[DoubleJD]

You know, while I want yellowbounder dead, I'm not sure I find him all that scummy.

UNVOTE:

Will do more stuff this weekend.

Meant to link it. Im pretty happy with this actually VOTE: quilford

[DoubleJD]

Yes, but we have much more info on the mafia one.

Given that izak probably isnt mafia, and also that he seems towny from fighting with garararrr, and also that kondi was on the izak wagon early in day1, and end up with a terrible lynch choice :/

Why did you vote him mister? Why do you think he's scum

[DoubleJD]

I mean the day just started, your L-1 vote (though retracted) looks soooooo bad

[DoubleJD]

If you read, you'd notice im suspicious of katsuki, and voted quilford. Your argument is reactionary to being accused and is self preservation based. Your suspicions of izak on day1 are irrelevant now, becasue day 2 gave you 7 flips and should change your opinion on players. You're sooooo scum

UNVOTE:
VOTE: misterx

[DoubleJD]

I didnt consider that about quil, fair enough. Points stand against mister though

[DoubleJD]

All of doubleJD's posts for how people aren't scum are based on mafia... And not a shred of werewolf or SK.

I have a feeling this is one of those games where we have a ton of scum.

Also if izak flips werewolf JD is the first to die tomorrow.

Another person searching for reasosn someone could get lynched, as opposed to looking for role information.

Tell me katsuki, why did you feel the need to exaggerate how many of my posts are based on finding mafia? Why do you not care that the single post you're referring to is bandwagon analysis? Why do you not acknowledge that we gained more info about the mafia than we did about the ww's?

Im really having trouble seeing any reason town would say what you have just said.

[DoubleJD]

Its unlikely izak is mafia, and unlikely hes a wolf both by bandwagon analysis. The entire town wants him dead, and no one is second guessing this? I dont understand!

[DoubleJD]

@Mod: I will be VLA all day on the 18th and for most of the 19th. Im moving and have lawschool orientation

[DoubleJD]

I missed that both yellow and mcstab avoided the izak wagon. I can get behind quilford

VOTE: quilford

[DoubleJD]

UNVOTE:

Well hrm

[DoubleJD]

I wanna see. VOTE: quilford

[DoubleJD]

Im back, and am a VT because quadz doesnt like me

Delibird is next

[DoubleJD]

Someone run through what possibilities there are given the claims and N1 and N2 actions. I cant wrap my head around how 4 people died n1 with just 3 kills, so SK exists?

Then n2, 3 kills...thats possible with just mafia/ww/vig....or sk/ww/vig...so there is no mafia?

I have billions of words to read for class by thursday, someone reason this out for me.

[DoubleJD]

Do you think peta pan would have assumed he'd get shot? He was under suspicion day1 wasnt he? (sorry for not looking this up myself, im in the middle of reading "Hammontree V. Jenner" and am just checking the thread when i need a break)

[DoubleJD]

nvm, its not an actionable ability. ok. so prob no sk. Then katsuk kills izak, izak kills ___, someone else had to kill peta so we had Maf+ww night2...and thus we have at least 1 maf...and maybe some wws

[DoubleJD]

4 alive, 2 mafia with no vigs and likely no sk would be game over as nothing could prevent their majoirty.

The first page says they have no majority win condition (weird), so up to 2 ww's and up to 2 mafia are possible.

2m, 1w, 1t
2m, 2t
1m, 3t
1m, 1w, 2t
1m, 2w, 1t

are the only possibilities then (im vt, and am making these assuming that there is at least 1)

[DoubleJD]

if we no lynch, then town most likely loses in every case i think

[DoubleJD]

Hrm...wait i think we can only win if there is just 1m, or 1m and 1ww :/

[DoubleJD]

VOTE: mister x

Im gonna trust my gut. I was right with katsuki and got a lot of attention for attacking you both.

[DoubleJD]

I am happy with axxle town with the exception of an axxle/mister team. Will look into that later

[DoubleJD]

If you guys can wait, ill comb through the thread and do a vca type thing with who could be aligned with who on Saturday or late friday if im not too drunk. CBD felt funny to me the whole game so idk. Ill need to actually look through what hes got before id be willing to switch.

[DoubleJD]

Im here! Looking over thread now.

Thoughts before reread: Nolynch may actually be best...i didnt factor that we lose in most possibilities anyway so the point i raised against it is mute. Also i highly doubt there is a mafia dayvig, just becasue we had tons of deaths each night. Theyd have to be super reckless to not have just auto used it and take advantage of the extra kill. KK reread time

[DoubleJD]

Well...shit. I think i lose lol

[DoubleJD]

OK

I have decided to go against my gut. Skip a bit to get to my reads if you want them instead. Im talking about theory right now.

Based on my reads...i can see two plausible scenarios.

Scenario A: Two baddies. If this is the case, it is correct for me to hide who i think they are. This is so, becasue the only way to win in Scenario A is to somehow get the baddies to night kill eachother after a nolynch or intentional mislynch. This would involve me and the other vt both fakeclaiming correctly after a nolynch/mislynch and also for the baddies to agree. I feel that the chance of success in such a scenario is very very remote. Itd be fun to try, but it likely wont succeed at all. In addition, following along with Scenario A will force a loss if it is actually Scenario B due to the fakeclaiming schtick. Theres also some counter play involved if the baddies realize whats up. Obviously since im saying all this...it means im going along with

Scenario B: 1 baddie. We win so long as hes lynched today or tomorrow. Very unlikely to have a mafiadayvig imo, so whatever we do doesnt matter. However, it means we lynch him...which if right forces a loss if it is actually scenario A.

Anywho...reads time

AXXLE: Town. There are two separate instances where he refuses to support/follow a townie wagon and instead elects to vote for a ww and a mafia. 1 instance is when pacman(town) is at L-1 and he decides to vote and raise questions about kondi instead. The wagon was such that it seemed unlikely that a hammer would be suspicious and the wagon has been there for a bit. The other instance is where he pulls pressure away from the Gararararar vs Izak thing, which clouded the yellow wagon, to continue to pressure yellow. At the time, a vote for izak instead would be perfectly acceptable.

Both of these instances support axxle as town. Both could be bussing, but i think its unlikely. Points against him are for being generally lurky and not posting his thought enough outside of these instances.

MISTER X: Werewolf. This is a long argument. I hate linking posts, but if any point requires clarity i will do so. The first thing i noticed was that Zoraster made a deal out of proclaiming kondi as scum. It is shortly after this that bb does his whole 'lyncher' thing. MrX pops in to talk about BB...but doesnt say a peep about kondi which was an equally interesting topic. He didnt say anything at all regarding kondi (wolf) when zoraster was going all "found scum guys!" on him.

Second thing: Later on, much later, the kondi wagon has some steam...and when questioned he mentions how the kondi wagon is awesome. This is weird for someone that ignored it origionally. Why not share agreement before hand but make such a supportive notion of it later? This instance does look like busing to me.

Third thing: He goes out of his way to emphasize how there are likely two scum teams...and iirc is the only one to do so. Theres a probability argument here, but he seems pretty damn sure with how persistent he is about it. I think he brings it up a total of 3-4 times.

Fourth thing: When pacman fakes a dayvig...his immediate reaction is "mafia 1shot dayvig" from the rules.

Fifth thing: Points out, while hopping on the izak wagon, that it was "kondi that started it?". This is weird as well. If you know who started it, why make it a question? If you dont know, why does it matter at all? If the thought process while making the post was "im gonna hop on kondi's izak wagon"...then maybe by making it a questionable thought it breaks a possible relationship with a wolfbuddy. This is probably my weakest point.

Sixth thing: Extensive 'helpful townie' look. Asking for prods, asking people to be active, etc.

Seventh thing: Mr X is fine with a vig shooting BB. If mrx was mafia, i think he would know yellow was a lover with bb. This is if they have daytalk.

Eighth!: Thinks izaks interaction with garararr was scumlike. Noway jose.

Ninth: Mcstab pressures mrx late.

Tenth: Discredits my attack on katsuki with a 'cough'.

The combined points, though very shakey individually, paint a picture of mrx as a very likely WW and also as unlikely mafia.

CDB: Heres where the issue of Scenario A and B came up in the first place. Arguments for Town
-Is against the massclaim, supports the cop claim
-excited, not scared posting.

Arguments for scum
-It makes NO sense why he would think izak was mafia. CDB 'liked' a post petapan had made stating my reasoning for izak not being mafia was flawed. This implies that he thought izak could then be mafia. However...izak was seen visiting mcstab the night of mcstab's death. Since when do mafia kill other mafia? His claim sucks here.

I pretty much stopped there, and couldnt make heads or tails of the rest of his posts. On the one hand, he sounds like a legit cop. Someone that is excited about their role is doesnt want to be massclaimed day1 and lose it instantly. On the other, wtf his claim is crap. So either hes lying, and thus mafia (because 2ww 2t doesnt work) or hes truthful but just not making sense. Gut says liar...but the odds of winning in scenario A are too remote for this to matter.



TLDR:
Axxle: Town
Mister x: Specifically WW
CDB: Maybe town, maybe mafia. If mafia, we're screwed. So lynch mister

[DoubleJD]

then i just completely fucked up and there is only scenario A....unless mr somehow isnt a baddie :/

UNVOTE: mr

[DoubleJD]

I mean, its possible mr is mafia, considering they didnt have daytalk. Theres a few times where he posts too closely with other wolves that bugged me, but hes a baddie one way or another. The only question is cbd...but if hes scum we lose. So w/e, lets

VOTE: no lynch

and see what happens.

[DoubleJD]

Independent is best i think. You get fake coordination most of the time, and when you both hit the same target its good anyway. If cbd is alive tomorrow, he should out his result first though.

Also, if there are two baddies...prisoner's dilemma. Have fun.

[DoubleJD]

Mister, why should i vote CDB over you?

[DoubleJD]

Im content sitting on my ass and waiting for Mister to say something.

[DoubleJD]

I lied. Im really not all that interested in sitting on my ass. You got till September 4th, then i just gamble that CBD isnt scum and go against all the warning bells in my head.

Points
1) I am town, and this is obvious by the game not being over right now (CBD still has a vote on you)

2) Obvious town doesnt get lynched. Therefore its you v cbd. That is all you have to worry about.

3) No lynching a potential single mafia v townies is hilarious.

So get to it. Why should i vote cbd instead of you?

[DoubleJD]

So, you guys just want me to flip a coin then? I already know you're gonna vote for each other. Im asking for guidance because i really cant make heads or tails of it.

[DoubleJD]

K, im hammering someone tomorrow after school.

[DoubleJD]

[lynch]CBD[/lynch]

Did we win?

[DoubleJD]

VOTE: cbd, sorry...im in a werewolf mindset atm lol

[DoubleJD]

Ya you played well. I felt it was just barely more likely you were scum than misterx, just barely though.

[DoubleJD]

Nah. Mister wasnt playing in any other games. Its very possible that he was available to post a night kill, and we'd never know.

[DoubleJD]

"THANK FUCK FOR THAT

DOUBLEJD IF YOU SCREW ME OVER NOW I WILL NEVER FORGIVE YOU

NEVER"

"DIE DIE DIE SUCK TOWN DIE SUCK SUCK DIE DIE TOWN DIE SUCK "

LOLOLOL

[DoubleJD]

Er, well, I mean, it was completely obvious that I had to be scum there. Elton had me with my pants down.

I was pretty sure you were scum after I died, since I really doubt Mister X would want to 1v1 you instead of me.

I need to learn to put more weight on arguments like this. Ill get good eventually, but for now ill take my lucky win

[DoubleJD]

Setup:

VT - DoubleJD

[DoubleJD]

Ya, even though i gave, and am giving, you a lot of crap for making me the ONLY vt, it was still a very good game. TY quadz! do it again!

Also, +1 to lovers being hilarious. <3 bbmolla. lyncher. lol