Open 427: PYP X/Y (Day 7)

[Klick]

I'm impressed.

Is there anything that I need to address immediately?

[Klick]

Did Rach claim who she jailkept?

[Klick]

I'm going to use the five-hour road trip I'm on to get reads on everyone slowly and steadily.

Andrew is pretty likely town due to reactions with pecan.

[Klick]

peta's town. That really shouldn't have to be explained.

[Klick]

...which means his reasoning for BK-town is legit, and correct.

[Klick]

Interesting. If both Hoopla and I were 100% correct in our townreads combined, then by PoE, havingfitz would be the last scum.

Reading havingfitz.

[Klick]

The early VCA is telling.

VC 1-6 points to scum being in {havingfitz, Om of the Nom, Venmar, petapan, BK}. Taking out townreads, that leaves the first three.

1-7 gives huge townpoints to BK and myself. So does 1-12.

The Rach counterwagon buildup to oppose pecan is bound to have scum on it. Implicates {fitz, Om of the Nom, Contra}, but Contra has a few things in VCA that make him look town.

The rest of it continues to implicate fitz/OotN.

I personally think fitz looks worse, but either would work for me.

VOTE: fitz

PEdit:

[Klick]

So, in simple terms:

andrew, peta, and BK all have really good reasons for being town.

VCA says that the las scum is in both of these subgroups: {fitz, OotN, Venmar, peta, BK}, {fitz, OotN, Contra}. fitz and OotN are in both of them.

Meanwhile, they also have nothing in VCA that gives them reasoning for being town, while there are multiple examples for others (namely BK, Contra, and myself) that rule them out.

Therefore, the last scum is either fitz or OotN.

(Also, just because I notice I'm being voted - VC 1-13 should make me

really

obvious town)

[Klick]

Hey Venmar, take a glimpse at VC 1-13.

[Klick]

Sorry, I fell asleep.

@Venmar: Notice that Cobbler, pecan, and Arugula are all voting Hoopla. And that they are the only ones voting Hoopla.

PEdit: How are you, Om of the Nom?

[Klick]

I'm admittedly extremely tired. I just got back from a trip to see family. It kinda sucked.

Who are your top suspects?

[Klick]

This man is an honest, hardworking citizen. Why are we voting him?

In all seriousness, OotN is probably town. You could call it gut. Gut that doesn't come from fitz's posts.

PEdit: Read the part addressed to you in my recent posts.

[Klick]

Actually, I don't mind your proposal as long as you honestly go through with it. It'd be cool to be one of the quickest accounts to qualify for SE status.

Then, when your plan takes you to 3-way LyLo, will you accept your own lynch?

PEdit: There's still the point that if I'm scum, they all decided it was a good idea to pile on their own wagon. And judging by VCA alone, the wagon did attract attention for quite some time.

[Klick]

Hey guys, lynch fitz first, if for no other reason, then because he'll be hard to lynch later.

[Klick]

fitz is still more incriminated by the VCA than Om is. He just also has the added benefit of being the harder one to lynch.

[Klick]

Once again, to further make this clear:

VC 1-13

andrew94 (2)- Om of the Nom, BK201,
Arugula (1)- havingfitz,
BK201 (0)-
Cobblerfone (1)- Hoopla,
Contrapposto (2)- RachMarie, andrew94,
Elmo TeH AzN (0)-
havingfitz (0)-
Hoopla (3)-

Arugula, Cobblerfone, pieceofpecanpie,

Jal (1)- Pressed Bunson,
Om of the Nom (1)- Elmo TeH AzN,
pieceofpecanpie (1)- Jal,
Pressed Bunson (0)-
RachMarie (0)-
Venmar (0)-

Not Voting (2)- Contrapposto, Venmar,

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. I believe I have found a replacement.

[Klick]

@1212: Meh, NK spec, I'll ignore it to fit my own reads.

@1213: If I'm scum, the scum must have thought it was a good idea to all pile on the same person.

[Klick]

Can we agree on this:

fitz today, me tomorrow, OotN after that?

This fits everyone's wants. All three of us get lynched, in approximate order of "ability to squeeze out of their lynch."

I think Rach could have jailed anyone in her suspect list, which means fitz, me, or andrew.

[Klick]

So literally

everything

points to fitz/Om.

[Klick]

This is the

exact

opposite of what I proposed. Lynch fitz, then me, then Om.

Due to Elmo's comment towards me, I think he's really likely town. He thought no one would be cleared by Rach's jailkeep, while the last scum would realize he's the only one left.

[Klick]

If both Om and fitz are dead and town (and it's not LyLo/MyLo for any reason), I

will

allow myself to be the lynch the next day.

[Klick]

You hammered before andrew showed up to the party. That gives him no chance at using his PR, if he has one. There's likely others that didn't get to submit their powers due to a short day.

This isn't really an attempt at an attack on you, but more of a "bad play regardless" thing. No short days.

[Klick]

I just had an amazing idea.

Everyone, as soon as you read this, vote fitz. I am going 1v1. I repeat:

vote fitz IMMEDIATELY.

VOTE: fitz. This should be a quicklynch.

[Klick]

fitz, selfvoting in this scenario is playing to the town win-condition.

[Klick]

Venmar, vote fitz. 1v1, quicklynch. Please.

[Klick]

It won't work unless the people voting fitz don't know the plan.

I'm offering my own lynch tomorrow. I don't have an anti-town intent.

[Klick]

Venmar, get back in here and vote fitz.

[Klick]

It really doesn't work unless it's a complete quicklynch.

[Klick]

Hey peta, I notice that you're online.

You should vote fitz.

[Klick]

Fuck, never mind. Too many people have logged on.

My plan was to get everyone to quicklynch. If there was a kill, then everyone that hadn't logged on in between the day's start and the day's end would be confirmed town, because they couldn't have sent in the kill. However, if there wasn't a kill, the only people who could be scum are the people who hadn't logged on in time to send a kill (and me, the creator of the plan, but that's not the case). And if fitz was scum, it would work out anyway.

BUT, since we stalled too long, it won't do anything but confirm andrew as town, which is already true. He didn't log in in time to submit a kill last night. There was a kill last night. Therefore, andrew is town.

fitz should still be lynched, but we should wait for peta.

[Klick]

Yeah.

Lets say me, you, Venmar and Elmo would have quicklynched fitz and he flipped town. There are then two possibilities:

1. There is a kill tonight. That would mean that someone alive had to have made the kill. The only people online that would have the ability to kill are me, you, Venmar, and Elmo.

2. There is no kill tonight. That would mean someone who wasn't online is scum and didn't get their kill in. That would mean either peta or andrew is scum.

The reason I couldn't say this before is because one of you could simply no-kill and frame peta/andrew for not being there.

[Klick]

No, but it doesn't change the fact that it would work.

[Klick]

In other words, it confirms you and peta as town.

[Klick]

andrew, why did you choose not to get a PR?

[Klick]

You were #7 on the list, with 8 PRs. You must have had a choice.

Or am I misunderstanding the drafting system?

[Klick]

I just had an amazing idea.

Everyone, as soon as you read this, vote fitz. I am going 1v1. I repeat:

vote fitz IMMEDIATELY.

VOTE: fitz. This should be a quicklynch.

What quicklynch (or self vote) of a town player is an amazing idea?

Read my plan for a detailed explanation.

[Klick]

One-Shot Vig. Not revealing whether it's been used yet.

[Klick]

@Contra: Well then.

@Venmar: Ignoring the fact that you really haven't given any reason, why aren't you voting me?

[Klick]

And now that you're voting... what's the reason?

[Klick]

No. I'll do so if fitz flips town or if I'm in any serious danger of being lynched. Until then, it's really not necessary, as fitz is already nailed FMPoV.

[Klick]

"From My Point of View"

[Klick]

VCA, along with the fact that everyone has it down to me or him and almost everyone else has given me a reason to think they're town since I replaced in.

[Klick]

Because fitz is tough to lynch. I don't want him to squeeze out of it tomorrow.

[Klick]

I'd also like to be alive if fitz was town to give insight on LyLo the next day.

But if I can get four people to promise that fitz will be lynched tomorrow if I'm lynched today, I'll take it. It's less advantageous, but it gets fitz lynched.

[Klick]

Venmar, I'm the goddamn kondi

[Klick]

No, I *am* kondi. It's a long story, but this is my new main account.

[Klick]

You seriously think I'm going to weasel out of a 1v1 tomorrow?

I want to be lynched after fitz, if he flips town.

[Klick]

Because I want to give my take on what to do in LyLo if fitz is town. A replacement's take on things is usually good.

Why not lynch fitz then me tomorrow, if the game is still going? What's wrong with that suggestion?

[Klick]

...I'm waiting for the kill. Which is realistic. Having a choice of four people to show who the scum is is better than five.

[Klick]

"waiting on the kill" meant waiting for the Mafia's kill.

Also, do you promise that fitz will be lynched tomorrow if I'm lynched today?

[Klick]

Oh, I see what you're getting at.

If I used my Vig kill with a Mafia kill, it would make me obvious scum for lying.

Still curious as to the answer.

[Klick]

So anyway.

Andrew is confirmed town. Contra is obvious town. peta is obvious town. Venmar is possible scum, but I really, seriously doubt it.

If fitz isn't scum, lynch Elmo.

[Klick]

Interesting. If both Hoopla and I were 100% correct in our townreads combined, then by PoE, havingfitz would be the last scum.

This sums it up. They pretty much make me more convinced that fitz is the last scum and more convinced that the other possibilities are town.

[Klick]

You vca skills are crap Klicdi.

Really?

For anyone too lazy to read, it's a link to a game where I destroyed fitz with VCA.

He also squirmed out of his lynch there, which is why I insisted on him going first.

[Klick]

Well, I was right. You squirmed your way out of it.

I'll look at it again when I'm not at school.

[Klick]

Why? You're still going to be the scummiest as far as VCA goes.

[Klick]

Xelath, I want you to continually jailkeep me.

You can refuse, but I'm putting it out there.

[Klick]

Wrong game

[Klick]

You want me to make theories?

[Klick]

Actually, you're right.

I want a massclaim today. I'm going to figure this out.

I think it should specifically go from first to last on the draft list.

Does anyone have problems with this?

[Klick]

Well then.

Going to see what that means.

[Klick]

Did everyone claim what they tried to get?

[Klick]

So, that means:

- The Mafia definitely DID kill Hoopla Night 1. There was nothing preventing the Mafia's kill from happening.

- I am confirmed by havingfitz to actually have the 1-shot Vig role.

Why would Arugula, as scum, pretend to have used his 1-shot Vig ability? That would give him no opportunity to use it later. The only solution to that I could see is that he planned to use it at 5p LyLo with Cobbler, but then, why would he bus? He had to have used his Vig shot on Hoopla. And since the Mafia also shot Hoopla, unless you think they both shot knowingly, Arugula had to have been town.

^.^

[Klick]

So, we already have two confirmed town in me and andrew. All we have to do is decide on two other people who are town, and the game is ours.

I'm pretty confident in Contra-town and peta-town.

[Klick]

If the game's still going tomorrow and I'm not alive, obviously lynch Elmo. andrew's confirmed town. Contra is obvious town. peta is really, really likely town, but don't make it 100%. Venmar is probably town. Elmo is null, which means scum if fitz isn't.

[Klick]

Mafia have day chat? Since when?

Yeah Venmar is town.

[Klick]

I just realized that peta came to the same conclusions as me at the beginning of yesterday. The hipster, him.

[Klick]

And after an ISO, Elmo's probably town.

That means we were right.

[Klick]

kay

Who's scum?

[Klick]

VOTE: Elmo

[Klick]

So are you.

And no one BUT me and Contra (and fitz) posted between the time I confirmed myself as town and the lynch post.

[Klick]

No idea. According to confirmations and the lynch timing, you should have been the kill.

Most logical explanation is that someone wasn't paying attention to my post confirming you and killed Contra for being obvious town. I could see anyone left doing that.

Andrew, if I'm killed, I suggest you lynch peta.

[Klick]

(assuming Elmo isn't scum)

[Klick]

Try again.

[Klick]

But I'm literally confirmed town. So being lynched right now is completely fucking retarded.

And I'm not at L-1.

[Klick]

- The Mafia definitely DID kill Hoopla Night 1. There was nothing preventing the Mafia's kill from happening.

- I am confirmed by havingfitz to actually have the 1-shot Vig role.

Why would Arugula, as scum, pretend to have used his 1-shot Vig ability? That would give him no opportunity to use it later. The only solution to that I could see is that he planned to use it at 5p LyLo with Cobbler, but then, why would he bus? He had to have used his Vig shot on Hoopla. And since the Mafia also shot Hoopla, unless you think they both shot knowingly, Arugula had to have been town.

^.^

^ That is why I'm confirmed town, but this also makes me obvious town:

Once again, to further make this clear:

VC 1-13

andrew94 (2)- Om of the Nom, BK201,
Arugula (1)- havingfitz,
BK201 (0)-
Cobblerfone (1)- Hoopla,
Contrapposto (2)- RachMarie, andrew94,
Elmo TeH AzN (0)-
havingfitz (0)-
Hoopla (3)-

Arugula, Cobblerfone, pieceofpecanpie,

Jal (1)- Pressed Bunson,
Om of the Nom (1)- Elmo TeH AzN,
pieceofpecanpie (1)- Jal,
Pressed Bunson (0)-
RachMarie (0)-
Venmar (0)-

Not Voting (2)- Contrapposto, Venmar,

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. I believe I have found a replacement.

[Klick]

@andrew: An extra kill would definitely be worth more than a blind redirect.

[Klick]

VENMAR, IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I LOOK LIKE.

Arugula claimed to have shot Hoopla, and then was pretty much the main reason Cobbler was lynched. If he shot Hoopla, he was town. If he didn't and he was fakeclaiming his shot, that stops him from EVER using it. And Arugula

didn't

use it for brownie points.

[Klick]

But I'm literally confirmed town. So being lynched right now is completely fucking retarded.

And I'm not at L-1.

Actually, I didn't ignore it at all.

[Klick]

Yes, we can.

Why do you ask?

[Klick]

I don't expect you'll self-hammer?

[Klick]

I think the answer to that is obvious, but I'll refrain from answering for him in case you have a special reason for asking.

[Klick]

Venmar, the fact that you refuse to listen to a word I say is making me doubt you.

[Klick]

VENMAR, IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I LOOK LIKE.

Arugula claimed to have shot Hoopla, and then was pretty much the main reason Cobbler was lynched. If he shot Hoopla, he was town. If he didn't and he was fakeclaiming his shot, that stops him from EVER using it. And Arugula

didn't

use it for brownie points.

I've brought this up several times. Either give explanation for it being false, or say I'm right.

[Klick]

Actually, you're right. Arugula was one of the last to claim, and could be assured that there were no protective/blocking roles to stop anything if he was scum.

However, you're still relying on Arugula playing a ballsy gambit which wastes his Vig shot AND voting with only his two partners against Hoopla... over Elmo who has absolutely nothing that swings him either way other than Hoopla thinking he was town.

In other words, you're sheeping Hoopla a bit late. And it sucks, because in your scum situation, you're doing the perfect play. If I'm lynched today, you're basically handed the win. If Elmo's lynched today, you likely still win due to not supporting his lynch.

I'm going to reread.

[Klick]

I don't think you're scum. I'm just telling you that if you are, you're doing it right.

Arugula also never tried to get confirmed town status from his claim. I did.

And why would Arugula need to both bus Cobbler AND waste his shot in order to be seen as town? And while I'm at it, if Arugula's intent was to look as town as possible, why wouldn't he just shoot Cobbler?

[Klick]

What I'm saying is he could have shot Cobbler with his Vig shot while Cobbler shot Hoopla. Much less risky and gives him even more townie points. AND I imagine it would be one of the first things to consider if you're thinking of Vig gambits.

Even so, you think THAT flavor of WIFOM is more likely than Elmo being scum? Honestly?

[Klick]

I really wanna know who gets shot

Honestly you still haven't explained to me why Elmo is scum. Considering I am somewhat sheeping Hoopla's reads, you'll have to be pretty convincing.

Regardless if my case on you is good or not, you're the odd one out of all of us and you're trying to use WIFOM yourself to make yourself look confirmed town, which is a even worse offense than what I might be doing with my read. Add on the fact I don't trust you enough to go into LyLo while thinking the rest of the game is likely town, you have a recipe of me wanting to lynch you after you evaded the rope and instead got OmNom and Fitz lynched, and then one of the people who was probably going to agree with me from the point on after Fitz's lynch was killed, you're my suspect. ( I'm talking about Contra )

@explanation: It's really simple. Everyone else has a reason for being town. If there's anyone you want me to discuss in detail about their towniness, I'm happy to oblige.

@Contra death: Quite the opposite. Read Contra's last posts before he (she?) died. Contra was pretty much definitely going to follow me wherever.

[Klick]

There's no towntell there. If he forgot about the game, he could very easily forget about the Scum QT.

[Klick]

And as for Hoopla's reads, she's not a god. I could probably find many an example that proves that argument worthless if I tried.

PEdit: There is none.

[Klick]

It's called Process of Elimination. Everyone else is town, so Elmo isn't.

[Klick]

I think peta's reasoning is also clear PoE. He's already expressed townreads on everyone alive but Elmo.

As for why people are town:

andrew is confirmed town.

You are town mainly because of your questioning of the Mafia having daytalk. I doubt you were making that up, and neither pecan nor Cobbler seem like they would coach you into that.

peta is probably town due to the consistancy in his townreads that don't let him live through LyLo if he's scum.

PEdit: I did.

You're not reading my posts.

[Klick]

So anyway.

Andrew is confirmed town. Contra is obvious town. peta is obvious town. Venmar is possible scum, but I really, seriously doubt it.

If fitz isn't scum, lynch Elmo.

[Klick]

@slips: I already gave reasoning for Elmo's not being a towntell. Yours is an actual slip.

I've already explained why andrew is confirmed town. He didn't post at all on the day OmNom was lynched, and someone died.

I didn't think I needed to repeat myself, sorry.

[Klick]

Actually, it's best to kill people you feel are going to flip scum, not people that could go either way.

[Klick]

andrew.

You should vote Elmo.

[Klick]

andrew, I'm really tired of waiting for this game. Can you vote Elmo for me? Please, with a cherry on top?

[Klick]

...because both me and andrew are confirmed town.

[Klick]

I really think you should at least attempt reading.

[Klick]

I'm sorry, I didn't. I apologize.

[Klick]

There's a blindingly major flaw in that, but okay.

[Klick]

Try again.

[Klick]

ELMO.

ANDREW AND I ARE BOTH CONFIRMED TOWN. COMMIT THAT TO FUCKING MEMORY.

[Klick]

What the fuck.

VOTE: Elmo

[Klick]

...actually, that's not too much of a bad idea here.

VOTE: No lynch

[Klick]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Klick]

Screw that.

[Klick]

@Mod: Is it two or three to no-lynch?

[Klick]

I meant the fact that the Mafia won't kill.

I'm asking for clarity for my next post.

[Klick]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Klick]

I didn't think you'd kill me.