Open 434: Fire and Ice - GAME OVER

[Klick]

(For the slow people, this is kondi.)

I'M BAAAAAACK! ^.^

This game should be really simple now due to obvious town and two scum against each-other.

Going to post ASAP. I'm on my phone, so my next post will either have to be tomorrow afternoon or a crappy phone post.

[Klick]

Simple summary of my thoughts:

People who are definitely town: Me, Sawyer

People who are major townreads of mine (I will explain when I have a computer to work on): Mala, TeCh

That leaves 2/3 in {guille, Blastoide, Dry-Fit}.

[Klick]

VOTE COUNT 3.1

[L-4] guille2015:

[L-3] Blastoide: Malakittens

[L-4] TeChNoWC:

[L-4] Malakittens:

[L-4] Dry-fit:

[L-4] Klick:

[L-4] Sawyer:

Not Voting:

6 (guille2015, Blastoide, TeChNoWC, Dry-fit, Klick, Sawyer)

• With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.
  
• Day Three's deadline: September 27, 2012 CST or in (expired on 2012-09-27 21:16:00).
  
• V/LA: No one.

"Be miserable. Or motivate yourself. Whatever has to be done, it's always your choice."

-Wayne Dyre

---

Alright, would anyone especially like a big explanation on either of my townreads? I'm capable of explaining both.

Let's see, night possibilities, starting at 5-1-1 with one confirmed-town Doctor:

---

IF WE LYNCH MAFIA TODAY

This is pretty straightforward. It becomes 5-1, then 4-1 with Sawyer dead the next day. We then have two chances to get the other scum.

---

IF WE LYNCH TOWN TODAY

It's then 4-1-1 with Sawyer being confirmed town. Many things could happen there:

1. Both mafia kill town, one of them being Sawyer.

That makes it 2-1-1. That's a very complex scenario. The correct play is to

have one of the town players self-vote.

This gives us the maximum chance of a mafia crosskill. If you're town in this situation, self-vote. If you're town and someone has already self-voted, vote them. Other than that, absolutely nothing else should happen on this day.

2. Both mafia kill town that is not Sawyer.

The remaining townie self-votes. This puts the two Mafia into a Prisoner's Dilemma.

3. Sawyer and one mafioso die.

3-1. No-lynch, and face the LyLo the next day.

4. Other town and one mafioso die.

3-1, one confirmed town in Sawyer. No point in a no-lynch, so just lynch that day and hope for the best.

5. Only Sawyer dies.

3-1-1, we don't know who the protection was. I personally think we should no-lynch in this scenario, as the worst-case scenario if we do that is a 1-1-1 showdown, which actually isn't as bad for town as it seems because of the rule saying that if they kill the same person, no kill will happen.

6. Only one townie dies.

3-1-1, Sawyer is confirmed and has a protection. He should reveal it, as it clears them of being one mafia group (and, if they're town, completely clears them to one mafia, which is good for us). I personally think lynch here, but it'll be up for discussion if it gets to that point.

7. Only one mafioso dies.

4-1, Sawyer is confirmed. His protection doesn't clear anything, so it doesn't matter if he claims it or not. Two chances.

8. No one dies.

4-1-1, Sawyer is confirmed. Mafia picked the same target, so Sawyer's protection means nothing. Lynch. Worst-case scenario, we lynch wrong and go into 1-1-1.

9. Both mafia die.

^.^

---

VOTE: Blastoide

[Klick]

That being said, I don't think this was case, given that yes, the two maf teams do oppose. For some reason I thought they were allies (derp).

Either this sentence is a lie, or TeCh townslipped. It doesn't seem like a lie.

That means TeCh is town.

This was the main reason TeCh is town.

Pages 26-28, starting where he goes all suicide, are also very good places to look if you're questioning TeCh-town.


...


Well crap.

Reading over Chrimi/Mala again, I fail to see why I thought she was town.

I think the big reason was how much effort Mala put into replacing in... but I just meta'd her, and she happens to make those huge posts as scum, too.

Other than that, absolutely nothing.

That's a problem.

[Klick]

It's not a meta tell. I just really, seriously doubt that you would propose your lynch unnecesarilly at that point as scum.

[Klick]

If it's 2-1-1 with Sawyer alive, lynching scum is autoloss, as they have free reign to kill Sawyer. We're forced to keep scum alive in that situation.

That means the only two options are to no-lynch or lynch town. No-lynching is suboptimal because it gives scum the option to get a draw, even if it's a small one. Lynching town is better because the scum can't work together to get a draw unless they totally trust each other, which would be borderline playing against their wincon, as you play for a win, not a draw. The only way the scum draw is if one no-kills and the other kills the town.

This means the scum are going to aim for each-other. This gives us a 2/3 shot at victory. If they both shoot each-other, we win, and if they both shoot the townie, it cancels, they know each-other, and we win. If one kills town and the other kills scum, it's a one-scum victory.

If Sawyer is the townie in 1-1-1, we have an even better chance, as the scum will almost definitely be aiming at each-other.

[Klick]

...that's actually a fair point. We could force a town win if the scum's aim was terrible.

Our two options are to gamble for lynching scum or no-lynching. At random, our chances at lynching scum are 1/3, but we have reads to go with that.

I don't have any more time, sorry.

[Klick]

Okay, important question. Regardless of results, what does the motivation of each scumteam's kills seem to be?

For Ice, I really don't see a connection between the two kills. The first was on obvious town, and the second was on... McStab.

For Fire, they must have really just wanted Venmar dead both nights for some reason.

I have a reason for wanting to know these.

[Klick]

Everyone's personal opinion. i.e.

not

just a list of every possibility. (you did good)

[Klick]

Has it really been four days?

Vote's staying on Blastoide, and if anyone wants to hear anything from me, just ask.

[Klick]

V/LA until Saturday.

Noted.

[Klick]

I think the game will be wrapped up by lynching Dry/guille, but I'm going to read over to make sure it's not Mala.

[Klick]

I've had absolutely no reason to think you or guille are town all game, while I must have had

some

reason for thinking Mala is town. Therefore, Mala gets a major boost from my perspective.

As for the NK spec, I figured that it would give me insight as to who was where based on comparing their answers for each Mafia. I'll get onto analyzing those tomorrow.

[Klick]

@TeCh: I thought I would be gone for a long time, so I had a massive siteflake, but then I was able to come back and felt bad for replacing out of everything so I rejoined all of the games I could.

I won't go into detail about my account screwing up, etc.

[Klick]

@guille:

You've been on a few times since the day started. Why haven't you posted anything?

[Klick]

@guille: What's the point in trying to find specific scum? I would think that specific scum yesterday would be more focused on trying to find the opposite alignment than making their suspicions general.

I obviously think one of you is scum, but I haven't decided which yet.

[Klick]

I definitely don't think it's TeCh. I've never seen him go suicidal as scum.

[Klick]

Explain your last sentence in more detail.

[Klick]

Meh. I'm losing motivation to read this because I'm pretty sure it's won. Dry/guille holds the last scum.

Consider my vote on both of them. I'll hammer whichever one gets to L-1 first.

[Klick]

Yes, I've gone back to saying that Ma

l

a

i

s on

e

hundred percent town. Reasoning is unimportant at the moment.

[Klick]

I feel affirmed in my reads, and I feel that I can get them lynched if necessary.

[Klick]

Yep.

[Klick]

Well, actually, that depends on if the person I feel is scum is actually scum.

[Klick]

Hmm...

VOTE: guille

[Klick]

I want to hear thoughts from both of you before giving my theory.

[Klick]

I suspect Mala over you at the moment.

Yes, I've gone back to saying that Ma

l

a

i

s on

e

hundred percent town. Reasoning is unimportant at the moment.

Quote that post. The letters "lie" are colored black.

I suspected Mala about as much as you and guille yesterday, but couldn't figure out an easy way to reveal it, as Mala was a generally accepted townread at that point, and I had no reason for thinking she was

scum

other than gut, which is lame as hell and wouldn't convince anyone.

So, the only way Mala could possibly get lynched today was if she kept both me and you alive today. To make this happen, I had to influence her kill, hence the fake definite townread on her. I had it set up so that, if you happened to actually be scum as I suspected before, I would probably die, and TeCh would be left with a Dry-fit scumread from me that would probably be correct.

Now that TeCh has died, I'd say I'm about 70% confident in Malascum.

[Klick]

...damnit, this means I have to read.

[Klick]

First: I undeclared my townread on you, like, Day Three. It only came back Day Four as a fake in case you were scum and decided to keep me alive.

Second, Dry keeping you over TeCh makes absolute perfect sense. If Dry is scum, you pretty much had to be in LyLo with him, as he had townreads on everyone else, and you were his major suspect. Are you only saying this because I suspected you? Nothing changed between your last post and that one besides me suspecting you.

[Klick]

@Dry: With the townreads on Mala, no one would be willing to vote her. She couldn't be lynched if I revealed a scumread on her yesterday, especially with no reasoning.

Mala...

I do gambits pretty much all the time. Examples are pretty easy to find. If you quote #866, the word "lie" is painted black. It wasn't just a "flop", it was definitely set up.

I also have a history of not giving reasoning for reads. As both alignments.

[Klick]

It's called a gambit.

[Klick]

Alright. PM's reactions with you guys didn't really reveal much. PM tried to call Chrimi town, and made me really lean on him being his partner early on, but after Day One, he had absolutely no interaction with Mala. However, he NEVER had interaction with Dry-Fit.

Chrimi, I love you and I love your posts and I love how when I read them I hear CC and you're town.

That must mean you know your SCUM partner too well.

This really makes me want to say Mala's scum, considering he never called Chrimi scum before then.

[Klick]

Mala, what was your reasoning for calling me town up until now?

[Klick]

VOTE COUNT 5.1

[L-2] Malakittens:

[L-2] Dry-fit:

[L-2] Klick:

Not Voting:

3 (Malakittens, Dry-fit, Klick)

• With three alive, it takes two to lynch.
  
• Day Five's deadline: October 23, 2012 CST or in (expired on 2012-10-23 21:28:00).
  
• V/LA: No one.

"Men who seek happiness are like drunkards who can never find their house but are sure that they have one."

-Voltaire

---

Hmmm...

Checking something out.

[Klick]

Hah.

PM has three completed scum games: here, here, and here.

In the first one, he continually said that his scumpartner (Venmar) was not the best lynch for the town. In the second, he also did this (with Natalie), more powerfully, and insisted that a different Townie (absta) be lynched. In the third, he had almost no interaction with his partner (citysnake), other than saying he was "slightly scum," and put his main focus on a Townie (OmNom).

Conclusion: PM doesn't bus. He mainly focuses his attacks on townies and either defends fully or slightly suspects his scumpartners.

so guys im town

I think this pushes more towards Malascum than Dryscum, but it could be a case of PM "slightly suspecting" Dry. I'll have to look for more patterns in his play later.

[Klick]

Mala, by the time you entered the game, PM had claimed Doctor. You would have no opportunity to bus PM if you were scum.

Why would I ask PM to try to bus me pregame? I'm pretty sure PM had no finished scum games by the time this started ( I may be wrong), so I couldn't have planned to say it was against his meta. I also have prior knowledge that PM is not the best player, so having him fake attack me would be terrible if I was scum. He also only made one big post against me, which isn't very consistent.

I personally think I should be obvious town right now.

[Klick]

I didn't know it ended before this started.

Nevertheless, as scum, I wouldn't be able to tell by one scum game that he never bussed.

[Klick]

Yeah.

[Klick]

I'd like to hear a reason that I'm scum in this game.

I'm being serious. If there's no reason to suspect me, and tons of reasons to think I'm town that I've already brought up, I'd like to move this along. LyLo becomes much easier once the votes are crossed.

[Klick]

Hmm.

I've had a spark, and I'm pretty sure I know who I'd vote if I was choosing.

[Klick]

If I revealed it, I

definitely

wouldn't get the choice in the matter.

I've learned recently that in LyLo, when you're in the position of power, it's always best to withhold your opinions until you're the one making the decision (or someone votes you, whichever comes first).

[Klick]

I'm completely terrible at 1v1 arguing, especially as town. I've found scum with concrete, unarguable evidence before and lost due to sneaky scum.

This way, I'm giving the mafia a choice; vote me and hope that they can beat me out in a 1v1, or cross with the townie and hope I'm wrong.

[Klick]

Of course.

[Klick]

This game has stalled.

We have nine days for both town to vote the scum.

[Klick]

Do the same study, but only include 3p LyLos. Voting in 5p is fun; voting in 3p is stupid.

[Klick]

Hey look, everyone's here.

Do the same study, but only include 3p LyLos. Voting in 5p is fun; voting in 3p is stupid.

[Klick]

I'll give you a hint, Mala. Only two of the games you listed were 3p LyLos. They were both town games, and I voted early in one and late in the other. (I lost both -_-)

Some games you listed weren't even in LyLo.

[Klick]

...

[Klick]

Dry-Fit actually hasn't posted around site for two days, so there's not really anything against him, but Mala, you should be posting here.

[Klick]

Five days...

[Klick]

Seriously...

I've already given substantial evidence for why I'm town, AND I feel confident that I can hammer right. Here's something for you guys to comment on; either explain why I'm not as town as I'm showing, explain why the other person also looks town, or vote the other person.

[Klick]

VOTE: Mala

[Klick]

...you were town?

Honestly,

everything

added up to you.

[Klick]

The TeCh kill made no sense to Dry-scum, but perfect sense to Malascum. Your "meta" on me was really, really bad. There were a few other things, too.

[Klick]

Really? And killed the one person that didn't show you as their prime suspect at the time?

Still pretty sure we lynched scum today.

[Klick]

Sure you are. And I'm really scum who nailed one Firescum right off the bat and was his main opponent, convinced PM to cross-bus against his meta and had him claim Doctor D1, nailed the real Doctor N1 but decided to kill Jal over him, nailed the second Firescum N2 with little effort, coasted through the rest of the game without really trying, was actually one of town's biggest assets, and was generally seen as total town.

[Klick]

Wonderful modding, Tracey. I already told you I loved the flavor, and I liked the top-of-the-page VCs.

This was probably one of my best scum games in a long time, and it's sad, because I really don't feel like I put too much effort into it. I'm the primary reason for each scum player's death (I bussed PM and had him claim Doctor, I killed McStab personally, and I kept a consistent scumread on Arugula/Blastoide).

LyLo upset me. I feel bad that it had to come down to lurking when I had a whole case I could have presented.

PM: You did a great job drawing no connection between us, and without it, I doubt we would have won this. Kudos to you.

Jal, What did I do to catch your radar?

PEdit: I figured I could get away with the Jal kill without too much trouble due to my interactions with PM.

[Klick]

Sala, you haven't seen my scum play, have you?

[Klick]

I found the Dead QT on LyLo Day hilarious. My play in LyLo was twofold: I wanted an easy way to get them to cross, and my play trying to confirm myself was too bold to come from scum. However, it was also meant to destroy Mala, should she choose to vote me - I had a huge case on her waiting, and implied it several times. The only situation that could have been bad for me is if Dry voted me, and I just couldn't see that happening.

So Jal, I would have reacted wonderfully to that vote. :3