Open 461: True Love (GAME OVER)

Rainbowdash · Post Post #210 (isolation #0) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 9:25 am

Time to save the game.

We dont claim lovers, setup optimization 101.

Money is 100% town also here, like really really really town. Its a bit of an issue since grey is really scummy, but its one of those things where when its obv town + scummy VI im not really wanting to make a lynching call since if grey ever becomes obviously town I would just selfvote to keep that one alive for the win. Gut telling me grey has a decent chance of just being himself as town which basically entails making everypony want him dead for a mix of persona and scummy play.

Vote OOTN

IIUN bugs be a lot here as well on a gut level, especially if the OOTN slot is scum like I think.

Somepony needs to explain the grey wagon because I dont get it, as scum it would be something that I would love to see since his partner is the most obvious townie in the game, but here im just not even seeing why it exists. Money needs to stop being suicidal town and come kill OOTN with me who is trying to use grey.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #212 (isolation #1) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 10:12 am

In post 211, iamausername wrote:so you agree that greygnarl is likely being targeted by scum in order to take out Moneybags, the most obvious townie of all time, ok

but then you think two of the people who are NOT voting for grey make a logical scum pairing? how does that work?

Well the wagon on grey is Mala who is town if my OOTN read is right, Josh who is town, Money who is town, and Bit who I really doesnt feel like scum. When OOTN reads as scum and if it wasnt for one or two of your posts I would be voting you and not him... yeah I have my vote where it is.

Really at this point the pairings are exceedingly obvious as subtelty is lost on this crowd, and I like voting for the pair im voting.

and how is Om 'trying to use' grey, exactly?

Really? The "hey lets lynch Bit" jump from him for in part trying to lynch lurker JL who OOTN had been voting that shows up right after grey shows Bit support, it just feels a bit scummy when you look at the timing. He also is joking a whole lot about being scum which just makes me uncomfortable since thats not behavior I have seen him exhibit in the past. That and that he claims Mala has a "decent reason" for voting him, which im not sure ive ever thought anypony had a decent reason for voting me as town. As SCUM I have had that thought, but never as town.

OOTN and his partner have first scum. Not sure if its my partner or the non-money pairing as the spot where we find last scum yet. It depends if OOTN or his partner are scum if we get the clean sweep or not since chances are we have the win already.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #214 (isolation #2) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 11:05 am

In post 213, greygnarl wrote:That's poor logic. He's just saying that I should be voting Bitmap since he;s not really at L-1 or anything.

Its good logic when he wasnt about to vote Bit, and actually has his vote in a spot he was attacking others for, untill you showed interest in going in that direction. Once he saw support he jumps the dead wagon on a lurker, but only when he saw support for a push in that direction.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #220 (isolation #3) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 3:08 pm

In post 218, Om of the Nom wrote:So I'm not allowed to switch from a wagon on someone who was being replaced to another person I had a scumread on? I've actually put arguably more effort into making a case on Bit than I have for anyone else in the game.

Why didnt you move until the point that there was other interest for the case though?

You seem to be basing everything off me being scum, but what about when I flip town? Who is the scumteam then?

I actually hope you are town because then we lynch the pair you are voting and my partner for the win because the only way grey being scum is a possibility is that you or your partner are scum. We get scum with your pair being lynched, but really if you are both town I would quicklynch the one side and then probably vote my partner after a doublecheck reread.

You realise Mala is doing the exact same thing that you accused me of doing with grey. As soon as you showed support on my wagon, Mala hopped along right behind you. What makes her wagon hop different from mine?

I read him as town more than not. Even though I think the pairing is town/town, I like the Grey vote from him. I like his posts, I may be wrong but I read him as townish enough to not care a whole lot because if your pair has scum his pair gets serious town points.

Its one of these three I think

OOTN pair + Grey pair
OOTN pair + Me pair
Mala pair + Me pair

I dont have a heavy scumread on my partner, but they make sense as scum with a whole lot of players more than others so I end up there quite a bit. If we lynched Mala pair and they flipped with a scum I would probably selfvote because im pretty sure it would be game ending.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #222 (isolation #4) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 3:42 pm

In post 221, Om of the Nom wrote:I want a lynch that is either Bitmap or Mala.

If my reads are correct you have quite a bit of compromise space there....

You're thinking way too far ahead into the game, and I really don't like that.

Game lasts three days tops and some pairings make little sense, no problem with trying to think ahead a bit on this one.

Im at something like

Scummy: OOTN, IIUN
Null: CFR
Null-Town: Bit, Mala, Grey
Town: Money

Given lover pairs (am I really the only town who figured this out?) I may be wrong about something because im usually not *that* right about stuff, but I like the way it looks from an early stage comfort setting that I can reassess with information.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #225 (isolation #5) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:38 pm

In post 223, Bitmap wrote:Also RBD, why Om over GG?

Because if OOTN is town and IIUN (his partner) are town we just lynch the Bit/Mala and Me/CFR pair and its a win.

Money is town and I only see Grey as scum if OOTN/IIUN are scum.

Also yeah, those are almost for sure the pairs at this point, dont think anypony is playing the subtle suicidal card.

Om of the Nom wrote:RBD, your reads are absolute shit, Bitmap is scum.

Also hey, last time RBD replaced into a game and tried to take control he ended up flipping scum. JSYK.

Like I said, I will vote Bit/Mala without hesitation if you are town and IIUn are town. I just have a bit of a town read on Mala and while I cant quite match this to Bit-PR meta it doesnt feel like Bit-SK meta. Mala read is main reason im going away from that pair though since if there is scum in it, almost for sure its Bit. Same like if Grey/Money are scum its Grey.

Lover claiming not great, but no reason at this point to hide it because I think scum have it all figured out and 100% do if Grey is town. Withholding info from scum is a good play, but after a while scum probably know enough to just force it to the open, see C9++ but far less complex.

Also the last time I DIDNT take control of a game after replacing in was? All this stuff from you just makes me like your pair for scum. IIUN makes me amazingly uneasy, and at the same time you are doing a whole lot of things like trying to turn me after Mala (or at least detract a tell from you) or here try and take a snipe at my credibility as town by throwing out null tells. Ive had scum who played with me in the past do the "attack with proven null" before when its something fairly unique to me.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #228 (isolation #6) » Sat Nov 24, 2012 8:32 pm

In post 226, Om of the Nom wrote:You seem to act like it's obvious who all the pairs are, and that all the connections are obvious as fuck, yet you've failed to explain a single thing, like why my pair having scum equates to either GG/Money or your pair having the last scum.

One pair is claimed, I know my partner. Its easy to see who is acting together a bit from there, especially when pushes against you happened and the way that Bit and Mala are passively defending eachother throughout the entrie game, its blatant to the point where if they were not lovers I would be calling them scum together because there is some defense going on there.

If your slot is town and IIUN is town it makes two of the remaining three slots contain scum. Out of them, I really dont see the pairing of grey+Bit/Mala happening, so I would probably go for the CFR lynch and say its with Bit/Mala because out of everything I said, calling a CFR-Mala pair is the only thing that he really has commented on in the QT. That alone was wierd enough to make me really want this lynch beacuse if you are in a T/T pairing I would self-vote over voting the GreyMoney lynch.

Same time your pair being scum is the only way I see GreyMoney as scum at all, and if THATS true its probably IIUA as scum and not you. Chances of that are low either way I think, reasonably I would say its UserNom+CFR or BitKitten+CFR, the UserNom+GreyMoney is just the only way I see GreyMoney being scum and its noteable enough to point out.

You're just trying to rush through my lynch as fast as you can so that people won't have time to see just how little you've actually done in regards to everything else that's happened in the game. You've made a short paragraph on the majority of the people in the game, yet you've made a huge case on me and based literally everything off that.

Im rushing a bit more because I have you and IIUN as the top two suspects. The fact that you are lovers just makes it all that more of a good looking thing to me. Also because I start a new job Monday so want to try and get my hooves dug in before I have no midday access.

You're acting like I'm the definite lynch for today and you fail to realise that it's entirely possible for someone else to get lynched. You've put all your effort into getting me lynched today, that you'll just be left scrambling tomorrow if I'm still alive then because none of your accusations mean anything without my flip.

The only other lynch that might happen here I think is the BitKitten one (which isnt horrible - would be my second pick) but im going to try and push hard on you because I think regardless of it being a T/T T/S pairing we win with your lynch.

You're full of confirmation bias and it's just fucking bullshit.

I thought we had met. I am Rainbow Miriam Confirmation Bias Dash.

Om of the Nom wrote:You seem to be completely blind to the fact that people have jumped on me the whole game with little to no reason at all because you're fucking biased against me and oblivious to the fact that there is a game going on around us.
Go on, explain that.

Before I showed up the only slots that had really pushed you are Mala, Bit and Grey. If you think Grey is town... only one scum could have been pushing you. I think you are overstating this a bit.

Also im totally coining the phrases: UserNom, BitKitten and GreyMoney. RainbowRiot as well. You are all welcome for your hydra names. Im particularly happy with UserNom.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #242 (isolation #7) » Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:20 pm

Every time I start thinking OOTN might be town he starts digging up irrelevant stuff.

The game he linked to I never did anything that would end with me being killed. I replaced into an almost lost situation in a broken setup so went for broke putting myself in a "to die" group that was avoidable due to flips I knew were coming and put myself in the endgame in the scenario that did happen. When no matter the flip I still am in the "will die" group on this one, im not sure what point he is trying to make about me since it doesnt apply.

All the shots at me remind me more of MS in a recent game where he was scum and starting attacking me for using theory that I use as both town and scum as a scumtell.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #251 (isolation #8) » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:12 pm

@KittenBit - Can you guys explain everything that has been said in your QT about the GreyMoney pair? Anything that pretains to either of them.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #262 (isolation #9) » Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:07 pm

Also working nine hours a day right now at a new job and work has MS blocked, so there is that.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #264 (isolation #10) » Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:18 pm

In post 263, Om of the Nom wrote:Hi RBD, how are you?

Tired. Its not this pony's cup of tea to stare at a computer screen for that long when im just updating the easement records for a project to help the acquisition team. At least let me do some sort of analysis or design... then no lunch break mafia... sigh. Having a job that makes $10k a year more than I expected though is worth it.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #266 (isolation #11) » Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:43 pm

Oh and its probably grey as the second scum. To the point where im basically cool with a lynch of him if you could do that before I can post again. Its like I pointed out in the QT with CFR; KittenBits + CFR and GreyMoney + UserNom had very mellowed interactions compared to other pairings.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #284 (isolation #12) » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:29 pm

In post 72, Om of the Nom wrote:Well I wouldn't be surprised if greygnarl is scum, though I don't have that much of a strong read on him. Right now his worst post is #69 but it's not as bad as the worry I get from Mala's attitude.

In post 104, greygnarl wrote:Om is so suspicous looking but he's prob town. Bitmap is being a retard and hasn't repalced out of a slow moving game, so he's prob scum.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bitmap

In post 109, Om of the Nom wrote:Mala's vote on GG just then sounded absolutely terrible. Mala, do you still think GG is scum after his "explanation?"

In post 118, greygnarl wrote:iamusername probs town for trying to get shit done..

Lazy version of a case

Vote Money

OOTN avoids attacking Grey/Money at all costs, Grey has a little RVS-ish exchange early with OOTN and then suddenly has him appear as town, and then stalls as soon as I put a case on him.

Calling the bluff, what he is doing is probably the right move as scum since doing something extreme due to partner viewed as town is the only chance he really has.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #286 (isolation #13) » Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:12 pm

In post 285, Moneybags wrote:GG dies either way.

Thats why im voting you. For some reason you have votes and grey doesnt.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #287 (isolation #14) » Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:36 pm

In post 216, greygnarl wrote:Ok that makes sense. [In response to case on OOTN]

In post 240, greygnarl wrote:well if anybody tries to back out of it then we kill them. Didn't really read everything but it seems like a good enough plan. The thing is, not sure that OMuser is the best pair to go after. MalaBit seems to be a much better choice. Also not understanding the universal townreads on Money. All he did was use some shitty tactic to try to pin me as scum. Even if I had claimed scum nobody would take that shit seriously.

In post 246, greygnarl wrote:There is no way that Kittybits is town.

More lazy case.

Grey is bluffing because its the only way he can win the game at this point. What do you do in his spot as scum? It has to be something big - so he is trying to same tactic that gave us all a townread on Money.

Look at how OOTN plays with respect to Grey early and then with the other pairings. He NEVER pushes on the one pairing. At all. Ever. When OOTN is getting ran up Grey keeps asking "Why not KittenBit?" even though he understands and appears to recognize validity of the OOTN case.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #292 (isolation #15) » Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:10 pm

In post 276, greygnarl wrote:Are we really ruling out the possibility of Bit/Om?

In post 290, greygnarl wrote:Maybe lynch RainbowRiot since Rainbow is so weird? I could change over if you want. We were planning to lynch them anyway if me and money come up town.

Cute scum. "Oh im following the plan" to "why is KittenBit town" to "Let lynch RainbowRiot first". Told you that selfvote was a play to try and get to a lylo.

Bitmap wrote:@RBD: Can you explain how Mala is definite town in your book?

Because of the way the game played out, he actually was pushing OOTN early as opposed to more of a distancing shot, and moreso OOTN was continually brining up Mala for really odd reasons. If its you or him, its you beause I could see OOTN doing a "lol callin my partner scum with me" thing. I really dont think its either of you though at this point.

Just read OOTN in iso and look at how he treats the GreyMoney slot. With relation ONLY FROM OOTN we have

-Comes to early conclusion Money is town (I seriously think this is a tell for somepony in that pair as scum)
-Attacks Mala for voting Grey
-Votes JL for voting Grey
-Calls Grey town for doing stuff and scumhunting (when did that happen)
-Got really interested in why I called KittenBit town if he flipped scum

Then go look at Grey in relation to OOTN

-Calls OOTN suspicious but town
-Wants to lynch KittenBits over UserNom because of ???

Just finish this game. Its almost for sure Grey here.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #303 (isolation #16) » Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:18 pm

Vote CFR

Its not Mala and I think its probably not Bit. For votecount purposes I want Bit to vote before Mala (as Mala is town) just so I can do one last sweep but I dont see this changing.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #310 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:17 am

In post 307, CF Riot wrote:Dashie, for your own sake, try and make a case on me and put it on a notepad or something.

Vote on you was purely to make sure that whatever I do im making a forgone true assumption of Mala-town because if that wasnt true I probably was going to be wrong either way.

unvote

Will give this game time over the weekend. I still think its more likely you just based on what you said, but will look back.

The trying to get self-lynched D1 when I strongly pushed that I thought you-Mala was a high chance pairing just makes me uneasy both ways. Yes it would get you lynched, but at the same time it basically tacks on the D2 town-town lynch because I would be very noisy that they went and not OOTN. From there its a OOTN-IIUN (scum+town who thought OOTN was town) against GreyMoney... who both thought the other was scum. Probably would have won you the game as scum if we got lynched D1.

Will think about it, nice to know is Bit or CFR though, might make things easier.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #313 (isolation #18) » Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:25 pm

In post 305, Malakittens wrote:Hey RD..

Did Sala and Riot mention anything in the QT about OM? If so what?

The QT is almost all me talking.

He asked JL why he thought OOTN was suspicious but that really was all that ever occured there. Most of what happened when I replaced in from him is talking about pairing speculation.

@Mala - Can you talk about everything that went on in your QT? Particularly anything related to who might be in a pair BEFORE pairings were obvious (so like first gameweek)

Rainbowdash · Post Post #316 (isolation #19) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:39 pm

Since its probably going to be me deciding and then maybe trying to convince Mala depending on where I go... you and Bit should probably posts cases.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #318 (isolation #20) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:40 pm

stuck with a bit of an odd situation.

No matter who is scum, THEM dying D1 was better than OOTN dying. It would chain RainbowRiot and KittenBit lynches where UserNom should have crushed GreyMoney in this same position. I just dont know if scum knew that or not.

CFR talking about NOT giving IAUN too much town credit early, not sure why he tries to stop town partnered with scum getting town credit at all. Bit is asking how strong of a town read on Mala I have, again a little unusual to me is he is scum. Im far less decided than I have been in the past, and because im working backwards would like to see cases from someponys viewpoint who is looking at this as a definative instead of a "one or the other" situation.

I still lean to CFR at this point, but the constant "we are scum" joking really is making me uneasy because I CAN see that being done by OOTN-Bit pair.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #321 (isolation #21) » Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:46 pm

In post 320, CF Riot wrote:Hey Dashie that wasn't it was it? I mean that wasn't your full reads summary, surely.

I havent been able to really make anything conclusive. Im more at a point where I can argue more for and against you than Bit, but not sure what that really means. The only two things that make me very uncomfortable about bit are the "lol scum with Bit" from OOTN which I just really can see him pull as scum with Bit, and Bit commenting on "finding the town-town pair"... which for some reason just sounds so out of place I thought it was a slip for a second.

Feel free to post a case, I think just new ways of looking at it is one of the best things that can happen for me right now.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #331 (isolation #22) » Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:41 pm

In post 324, CF Riot wrote:I pretty much saw this coming from Bit, but Dashie I'm disappointed in your lack of case. My turn. Incoming.

If im at a point where I dont think its going to be productive, im not going to throw a couple of hours into it when a couple of hours is about all my free time for a day and a half at this point when I just dont think its going to work. I want to look at it from another standpoint and getting cases from the ones who know its one or the other is the best way to do that.

Im a little confused with Bit not realizing Mala is confirmed town here too.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #333 (isolation #23) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:35 pm

Votecount Dump. Orange votes are (obviously) votes for partners of scum

Spoiler: Bitmap Scum

Spoiler: CFR Scum

Rainbowdash · Post Post #335 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:46 pm

Bit is far less likely to be original as scum. Thats his meta.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #336 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:51 pm

Vote Bit

Not necessarily for a lynch but I want to be in control of a plurality tie. When im sure of a vote I will let you know if its Bit.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #340 (isolation #26) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:05 pm

In post 337, CF Riot wrote:Dashie did you draw any conclusions from that big beautiful VC analysis post or...

Its as much for others as me. I think its maybe slight points to Bit... but not sure how much really.

For the case... there are only a few really solid things in there, the rest feel more like forcing it to fit (which as town you would) so im still just kinda thinking. Maybe sometime this weekend I will have a few solid hours to sit down and figure all of this out.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #343 (isolation #27) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:03 pm

CF Riot wrote:Didn't really help because Dashie pretty quickly committed to a Bitmap vote

Like I said, I realized its the correct move to just vote him because if I decide its Bitmap after Bit has voted you, its a 2v2 situation where we die unless Mala swaps. This way Bit was first to two votes, so I can leave my vote on him moving the tie in our favor, or hammer you. Basically I controll deadline ties with that vote.

Will try and figure this out over the weekend.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #346 (isolation #28) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:33 pm

In post 345, CF Riot wrote:Mala do you just want to lynch Dashy? Cause whatever he's trying to say in that post makes no sense. Like we're not going to eventually lynch someone today. Please.

Ummm... deadline lynch goes to the first to reach two votes. By voting Bit right now as a placeholder as I figure my vote out, if I decide to vote Bit it doesnt matter if I convince Mala or not, as Bit is lynched by the tiebreak rule. If I decide you are scum, I can hammer you, if I decide Bit is scum, I can still try and convince Mala, but failure to do so doesnt cost me the game.

Game can end three ways

KittenBit lynch
Rainbow Riot lynch
Tiebreak lynch

With my vote, if its a tiebreak lynch, KittenBit pair is lynched. I still have the full ability to move my vote to you though if I want, meaning that if either of us are scum, the other controls lylo. Its the right move for me to make at this juncture regardless of alignment.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #351 (isolation #29) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:07 pm

In post 349, CF Riot wrote:Dashy is trying to imply he is.

Because I essentially should be at this point. Day one I come in and bus my partner calling my lover second pick for scum with him instead of going for either of the other pairings which were easy enough lynches? I bus but only when not bussing looks like a losing strategy (SCIENCE game Mala is talking about is perfect example)

Of course at this point im actually leaning that it is Bit which is going to make you feel all the more uncomfortable, but will try and back that up with the parts from your case that actually make some sense, quite a few were "assume X, try and force Y to fit" when really when you are scum, not too many posts are too different than if you are town.

Bits first couple posts after my replace in are it mainly. There is some acceptance that I am town on theory levels, but an unusual attempt to cut my attack on OOTN. At the same time though, its just "RBD is scum, im not voting OOTN" which just doesnt fit the way Bit played the rest of the game.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #353 (isolation #30) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:53 pm

In post 352, CF Riot wrote:I don't recall there being much suspicion of the KittenBits pair before you replaced in, but there was sufficient suspicion of Om for a lynch, even if it wasn't coalescing at that point, and you were filling the shoes of a lurker who gathered several votes quite quickly.

Bit had picked up a couple votes before I replaced in and the lurker wagon was dying out while grey one was holding. Not sure what part of the game you think I replaced into.

I would say that is the sort of situation where not bussing is a losing strategy. How else would you have played it if you were Om's buddy?

Probably would have seen if I could have pulled off a KittenBit lynch since that left the GreyMoney slot who you were suspect of and was suspicious of itself. If I thought there was no way a KittenBit lynch could happen, I probably would have gone for the bus. Bit was very lynchable though at that stage and if the push was there it would have been KittenBit vs GreyMoney meaning the residual wagon was TT and that would have given me a hoof up the next day.

Im pretty good at planning as scum and seeing ahead, again look at SCIENCE. D1 a VT get clear and the masons I am able to pick out, so its four left, two VT and me/partner. I need both of the VT lynches and my partner is in a position where even if I took the simple D1 mislynch they would be gone D2 without some massive luck. Thats a situation where you bus, because it means that D2 the easy lynch gets mopped up, I get lots of town points and enter lylo looking like town tagging along the D1 one who read town thanks in large part to me so they have some trust and somepony who while didnt look overly scummy, looked much less townie.

This one I could have made it TT vs TT easily. If GreyMoney got lynched you were sorta on edge about KittenBit. If KittenBit got lynched GreyMoney would likely kill themseleves. From there its just a discussion with the partner about if we want to do and if the D2 win is a possibility or not.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #356 (isolation #31) » Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:13 pm

In post 354, CF Riot wrote:One vote on Bit was from GG with pretty flimsy reasoning and the other was Omscum. The lurker wagon was dying but that's not really the point, the point is your slot was under suspicion which you had to make up for.

But there was suspicion of Mala too, and if that exists passive Bit support is tacked on. Also I didnt see JL under any sort of pressure since most of the votes appeared to be more annoyance based than suspicion based. Out of all pairs we were LEAST likely to be lynched day one, I saw no threat of having to approach replacing in from a guarded stance where (again regardless of alignment) you have to take certain steps that you cant take normally.

Also as scum my first move is to immediately clear Mala today? Trying to force 2v2 or at least stall to see what you were going to do left the most doors open. Clearing Mala means that as scum my entire gameplan became "lynch Bit" while I missed the Bit vote which I recently made that worst case left my gameplan as "keep the votes tied".

Rainbowdash · Post Post #358 (isolation #32) » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:35 am

In post 357, Bitmap wrote:Ugh, Om just did that gambit as a way of "buddying" with someone else in order to get me lynched.

So you buddied back to somepony who you thought was scummy?

Its also not the only reason. What CFR pointed out regarding how you saw OOTN as scummy yet really froze when I came in and hard pushed in that direction doesnt make much sense if it was really a scum read and not distancing.

I dont like that if its CFR this is going to come down to me, but im staying where I am for now.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #361 (isolation #33) » Sun Dec 09, 2012 1:24 pm

Thats more or less the definition of WIFOM.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #364 (isolation #34) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:53 pm

In post 362, Malakittens wrote:Ugh. I am currently leaning on my own partner as scum. That's based off the town meta. He's not being aggressive. Then again, OM was saying odd things regarding Dashie by saying watch out she might be scum because she took control in another game, but didn't vote.

Can you NOT hammer yet either way. Last post from CFR was one of those that makes me really feel uneasy again, just dont want to lose tiebreaks. Fact that Bit isnt voting is another one of those "im not happy" feelings.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #366 (isolation #35) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:55 pm

For some reason I thought it wasnt.

Lets try something new - Why are you town?

Rainbowdash · Post Post #372 (isolation #36) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:55 pm

In post 371, CF Riot wrote:You should hammer. Dashy is full of crap. If he was really as indecisive as he claims to be he'd be working harder. He hasn't really grilled either of Bit or me today. Bit's just playing a suck towngame. He's uninterested in the game and has been since about halfway through D1. He feels obligated to post every now and then so he checks in on us, but he really isn't paying attention and whenever he remembers it's lylo he folds and runs off again.

So my scumplay is to try and give the only lynch I would have outs by letting them talk about how they are town?

I dont like endgames because I never get to play them as town, have been in an endgame as town once as Dash, and another player voted wrong basically out the gate. Overall probably about five endgames as town, in four years. Probably you just have zero idea about how I actually play as scum, its overly calculated and when I need a stall... they need to come at the right time. With Bit at L-1 and Mala expressing some intent to hammer is NOT the time I dissuade a hammer and express suspicion of a partner, thats the time to keep you happy by saying what you want to hear. Im not going to go into wall mode when really its unlikely anything that can be said will change my views on what something means since no other facts can actually come out here.

Im actually fairly tempted to selfhammer here because 363 is probably one of the single scummiest posts in the game.

unvote

Because if CFR is scum his vote is going back soon and I REALLY dont want Mala to hammer if thats the case right now.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #393 (isolation #37) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:12 pm

Ugh... ok here is where im stuck right now

CFR in 363 is just awful beyond reason. If he didnt selfvote almost immediately after I would be voting him now because its just feels like such a "Yay you did a good job not making me selfvote Mala, lets vote Bit to win now!" push that I just feel really bad about it. His reaction to me calling it a bad post though of a selfvote doesnt feel too much like a gambit, and it would be an unnecessary and gutsy one at that.

I kinda wish I had some non-PR town and non-not mafia scum meta from Bit since they are playing fairly inbetween the two right now, but I still am maybe leaning there? Not even 100% sure on it but thats where I keep wanting to end up but there is just enough of that nagging feeling that makes me hesitant.

Its sorta an "Is Bit this oblivious as scum" vs "Is CFR this gutsy as scum" arguement.

I almost just want to have a conversation with Mala more than anything else at this point and see if just the two of us can come to the same conclusion.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #395 (isolation #38) » Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:25 pm

If you want, although I tend to not read too much into meta of games im not in. So much about what happened in the moment is lost on a netural reread since you dont know all of the nuances that were currently driving decisions.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #397 (isolation #39) » Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:14 pm

I think im nearing a point to be strong with a vote

@Bit - You seemed to think I was town after replacing in, so why did you not show any willingness to vote OOTN?
@CFR - Why DID you vote OOTN?

Rainbowdash · Post Post #402 (isolation #40) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:28 pm

In post 401, Bitmap wrote:
In post 397, Rainbowdash wrote:
@Bit - You seemed to think I was town after replacing in, so why did you not show any willingness to vote OOTN?

Paranoia that your town play was actually your scum play. I was talking to Mala about the possibility of you being scum.

Mala confirm how long this conversation went on if you would

Rainbowdash · Post Post #404 (isolation #41) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:16 pm

In post 403, Malakittens wrote:It went on for a while. Both of us were having paranoida actually. He did say that he hoped you would keep your promise of lynching yourself if OM flipped scum..

So him calling me town D1 was blustering then or something?

Rainbowdash · Post Post #406 (isolation #42) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:05 pm

@Bit - So you never mentioned my predicessors, called CFR town around the time I showed up, had called OOTN scum, yet why did you never actually vote him and instead tried to get a read on me? I cant really find your motivation for not voting him.

At the same time, CFR gains zero town points for his reason of voting OOTN which is about what I expected when I asked that question.

I keep wanting to vote Bit here, but every time I start to make that post I ask myself why I think CFR is town and there are very very few things I can point to which always concerns me because thats about how good scum ends up in endgames. Few weak towntells but have got things where there is an obvious better lynch.

I still think im voting Bit, but im not really happy voting him right now.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #410 (isolation #43) » Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:42 pm

Vote Bit

Im still not overly happy with it and am fully willing to listen to Mala if he wants me to reconsider but its really as good as im going to get. While its hard to argue a case for CFR being town, its hard for me to actually argue him being scum at the same time. When most of why I want to say Bit is town comes down to what Bit I think knows is something I look for in towntells and the attack from OOTN... im just at a point where I dont think I can be comfortable with a vote ever since the mechanics of this game are going to be approached so differently from every player unlike a normal one so its hard to try and extrapolate tells from how I see the theory falling out.

I just am at a point where its about 60-40 and I dont think it can shift much more than that. If CFR is scum kudos for him for the followup to that one massive fail post from him today which im going to kick myself for if he is scum, but stuff just points the other direction and im going to have to put paranoia aside. The selfvote following that ugly post is really what im going on, that one was SO bad I honestly did just almost selfhammer right there because there was no way I saw town saying those things, but the followup was just as skewed to me not thinking scum would do it, maybe not as much, but why does scum make a desperation move as opposed to just trying to keep me calm which is all he would have needed to do to win?

Maybe I will have changed again by tomorrow, but I need to make a stance here either way, and obviously need to find a way to get more endgame practice as town.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #414 (isolation #44) » Sun Dec 16, 2012 1:52 pm

In post 413, Bitmap wrote:Also, I want RBD to list reasons why I'm scum. She's been pretty wish-washy and fence-sitting saying "Oh, he could be scum... or him" without laying down any strong evidence.

Its mostly that even though you showed suspicion of OOTN, when I came in and attacked him you apparently were more concered about me even though you showed no prior suspicion of me up untill that point. It just doesnt quite seem to add up.

To an extent im taking a leap of faith on that ugly exchange over CFR and im still not totally assured of what is going on there, but there are enough really small things there. You however I just really only have the inattentiveness and the fact that OOTN was putting pressure on you, but that was fairly passive for the most part.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #416 (isolation #45) » Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:35 pm

In post 415, Bitmap wrote:I was concerned with you because you are a stronger player than Om. But seriously... CFR has been dropping scum tells left and right yet you still vote for me?

Convince me. Im more than willing to listen.

unvote

even, all intents and purposes its still there and will be if you cant, but given the level of uncertanty im at, lets hear it.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #432 (isolation #46) » Sun Dec 16, 2012 6:56 pm

Somepony become obviously town for Celestias sake!

@Bit - Try to make a case. If you are going to call 363 scummy say why.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #443 (isolation #47) » Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:29 pm

Vote Bit

But still not by much. There are just a few things that CFR has said that I dont see him having said as scum, trying to chip away at IAUN town read, some direct interaction with OOTN, calling grey town D1 (then again D2 happened but...)

I guess ball back in Malas court now. Im not going to make a big case on why he should shift over to Bit here, its admittedly really close - normally there is a clear choice in endgame. This is where I am though and yay.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #445 (isolation #48) » Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:49 pm

Well... its sorta off D1 Bit is the obvious pick for scum. Everything post D1 its CFR as the obvious pick for scum. Im at the point where im not sure if I should trust the interactions with OOTN or just how im reading players, so im basically dodging voting by leaving it all up to Mala unless something just jumps out at me.

Rainbowdash · Post Post #448 (isolation #49) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:24 pm

Vote CFR

If im wrong oh well, I tried.

When it comes down to trusting interactions or trusting reads I think im going to go with the reads in a situation where interactions may be tainted simply due to virtue of odd setup. Its basically a coinflip, far and away Bit has read more as town in the post day one play, and its really hesitation to vote OOTN that is the big strike against them. Maybe I need to play more or less of these altered setups because its apparent my theory doesnt match most others which is just going to make it all that more difficult to play late in them, one trick pony doesnt last much past the first few days.

Ah well, we will see. Whoever was scum played a pretty decent game and at this point im just tired of it.