Open 456: Faith Plus One [Game Over]

[Baseline]

Hello everyone, I'm the replacement for ImJayden. I'm in the process of reading through the thread and should finish and have my thoughts up in the next 12 hours.

If there's anyone or anything in particular you want me to focus on or read into a second time let me know now.

[Baseline]

Apologies for the length of this, didn't intent for it to be this long.

TOWN (Strongest to weakest):

Shos

scumhunting, thought process and reads as well as his insistence for activity to pick up and pressuring of players to content-post all come across as very genuine. His "This better not be true" and "Oh wait it's an open setup" posts early in the game (Post 18 / Post 19) reads as him legitimately not knowing the setup which is very much unlikely if he's scum and it doesn't feel forced or contrived. His turn-around from suspecting Bud to moving his vote to Declan in his wall post alongside with the progression of it (Post 64) is understandable and his point about them

not

being partners holds a lot of ground and fits with a town thought process. His reasoning explained for his earlier vote on Bud also makes a lot of sense and is extremely natural (Post 69). All up his player is very follow-able and I find being able to understand how someone is thinking and scumhunting the strongest town-tell and hardest thing for scum to fake convincingly.

Radelles

point about Declan having little substance to his early game posts was spot on and the manner she went about stating as much and trying to push him of that line of discussion reads as genuine (Post 44). I like her reasoning and town read on Shos and to a much lesser degree Buldmar (Post 78). Also like her "Can't tell if Declan is flailing or going crazy" line, it's very much what I thought about when reading through the thread (Post 79). Her reasoning behind her Furcolow vote is very follow-able though I'm not entirely sure I agree with the conclusion behind it (Post 192). Overall her attitude and demeaner comes across as very genuine and town.

Abstas

play is very much something I can understand a lot. His vote and reasoning on Aether and request for meta-games from him after Aethers reads list was posted are all genuine (Post 88 / Post 110). His scum-reads and votes match mine very well, like him moving to City (Post 244) and his request for a force-replace (Post 261) has obvious town motivation behind it. Really the only minor issue I have with him is his dropping of his Aether scum-read or lack of moving back to it but that's super minor and the fact that his play is understandable and following reasoning wise overpowers that.

RedCoyote

is probably the person I struggle reading the most on the entire site or at least one of the two players I have issues with. I find his scum-play to actually be more pro-town than his town-play so you'll have to take this town-read on him with a grain of salt. His play as scum seems to be setting himself up for a good position late game which means he's generally very image-self-conscious about his posts and here he seems a lot more relaxed with it. I like his reasoning behind quite a lot of his reads and his Aether vote (Post 161) is something I agree with

a lot

. At the very least I'm hoping he's town at the moment.

Abaddon

was initially one of my strongest town reads when I was going through the thread but his latest posts have really thrown that off and weakened that substantially. I did like his point about Bulder sticking to his guns being a town-tell and liked the timing of his shos vote (Post 33) earlier on. Also liked his response to Declans vote on Bud being illogical with him setting up a vote if he does A or B situation (Post 58 / Post 60). Think my biggest issue with him is his lack of vision elsewhere, he's really only focused on two or three players all game, want more reads from him on players that aren't Shos/Furclow/Declan.

Declan

is where I'm feeling like I'm using gut and actually sticking with it. I can sympathize with his annoyance at being voted early on and his repetition of "When I flip town" ect. I find as genuine a lot of times there's perhaps one or two times only where it feels over-the-top so overall I'd say that attitude from him is somewhat of a town-tell. I think he legitimately believed the point about Bulders vote on Shos being a counterwagon and his aggression early on actually feels like someone thinking they've come across something and not just bullshitting. While Abaddon is spot on about Declans "If he wasn't OMGUSing he's scum" being logically flawed I can kind of follow his reasoning of "OMGUS there is town" and don't think that point against him really is that strong at all. I don't like the fact that he's started going all-over-the-place in his posts and his reasoning behind a lot of his reads in his previous post are flawed massively but I really can't look at him and say he's scum for sure and I get town vibes from him a lot. Someones going to have to sit me down and slowly explain what I'm missing here.

Furcolow

probably has some of the worst posts in the entire thread but I can't tell if they're scum-tells or just sheer retardation from him or not. He seems to have gone out of his way to alienate himself and attack everyone either via their play or personally and I'm not sure if he'd do as much as scum as he'd know it'd lead towards an increased chance of him being lynched. I'll probably read into a scum game or two of his tonight and see if his play here fits anything there. Also while his "City is rolefishing with townie and town" is idiot and very clearly incorrect the way he presented it comes across as him legitimately believing it (Post 96 / Post 133). Honestly the more I'm re-reading him here the more I'm thinking he's probably town as painful as that is to say. Will still check his meta later on though.

NULL

Greygnarls

slot is incredibly tricky, Rapidcannons flake points heavily towards it being scum because he's extremely active elsewhere on the site in not just one game but a group of them and I know he has a preference towards being town and is active at it. With all that said Greygnarl instantly jumping in putting forward a 'meta-case' on Absta (Post 181 / Post 194) is something I find to come from town much more often, scum don't like to attempt to push on a townie with a meta-case that they know is wrong because it generally leads to a no-traction wagon. His change towards Declan and enthusiasm with ending the day at the moment despite having no reads on other players at all (Post 240 / Post 241) is terrible. Really need to mull over this slot a lot and will do so later tonight.

FourTroubles

initial RVS post bugs me on a gutish level, seems over-explanatory but guts been wrong more than right so it's a very minor thing (Post 8). His lack of activity and content is really bad, he needs to pick up activity massively so. I'm in two minds about his 'catch-up post' (Post 170) so again you'll have to give me time to think over this tonight a bit more but it's somewhat parroty of what RC stated as his reads and elements of it point towards him not actually giving the game any real thought himself. His point about Rapid-Scum-Lurking is right though but yeah, need to see more from him and need to think about it tonight.

Bulds

stance on RVS and his insistence on maintaining the stance regardless of the pressure put on him about it feels genuine and comes across as a town-tell as he very legitimately believes it (Post 12 / Post 29) and I have no issue whatsoever with his vote on Shos and don't see it as him 'creating a counterwagon'. Massive issue I have with him is that reading through his posts I'm seeing a lot of discussion about the the RVS incident and none about actual reads of his or thoughts about the game that don't include Declan. Since the early game he's just been 'there' quoting and talking to Declan and that's about the extent of his activity and it's troubling.

SCUM (Strongest to weakest):

Aethers

jump-in post is incredibly awkward and adds nothing to the game, not just that though but if his intention was to 'VI' around he wouldn't want to announce that if it were strategic but rather keep it a secret, the fact that he instantly outs is giving himself a reason to avoid any real play as scum (Post 84). His reads list (Post 86) and the 'probability' element towards it is entirely contrived and the "I LOVE CONTENT" element making Declan so town on his list makes no sense given he backs it up saying that he likes content and not fluff which is why he likes Declan in (Post 130) but then right after saying that "Pages 2-3 are fluff" (Post 131). His "Do it every game" (Post 148) from what I can tell is a blatant lie as well, feel free to do some digging yourself and you'll see as much. His play is very reminiscent of a game I was casually following called (Open 418) where someone called Chrimi was scum and played this exact same way where they fluff/prod dodged and then posted (a bullshit reads list). I'm very very confident he's scum here and this is where we're lynching today.

Citys

play here isn't anything like I expected from her. It's not matching either meta I know of her, from memory she's generally a lot more willing to elaborate into her reads more. Her point on Ather is spot on (Post 93) but I'm not following how she got Declan-Town and Bud/Shos-Null from the early game interactions. With the exception to her Ather vote I'm not understanding her play at all, I really can't see what she's done that can be considered scumhunting and her updated reads list (Post 231) where she states 'reads have changed' but no reasoning behind it elaborated feels off. I'm nowhere near confident in this read though.

Vote: Aether

[Baseline]

I want people other than those players to actually participate in the thread to an extent that I can get a solid read on them. Initially, i was ready to give Baseline a Day One Town Pass for the detail of his wallpost, but a lot of things he's saying are contradictory on a closer reading. At the peril of reinforcing the image of tunneling, look at his opinions concerning my suspects. He likes my Towntell for Bulder, but ranks Bulder low neutral. He likes my point about Declan's false dichotomy, but has Declan listed as Town. Does not add up.

There are others that have participated enough to get a read on them, stating you want more activity to get a better read on them shouldn't prevent you from having and stating a current read on them. And agreeing with your points against certain players doesn't mean that it makes them mafia/town, it just means the point has merit. For instance the fact that Bulders stuck to his guns about the RVS being useless is a town-tell but it doesn't automatically mean he's town, it just means it increases the likelihood he is and the fact that he hasn't stated reads elsewhere or scumhunted at all counteracts that to a degree.

[Baseline]

Abaddon, I really recommend you

read

into my Aether scum-read and perhaps do some more

reading

as well into him. Also I'd like you to explain what you think about my Shos-Town-Read is wrong and what of my Absta town-tells you think aren't right.

IMO declan went from trying to play the game to full on retard. He was acting like I said before. It was like the wimpy guy who flips the middle finger to everybody who wants to beat him up while he's standing behind his super buff uncle. Town doesn't do that.

I've seen a few townies react like that in the past, Drshotgun comes to mind for sure, think Om has too. And "Went full retard" is just him disliking being voted, the frustration that comes from it can often lead people to spamshitpost, seem it happen far too many times. His change of stance now isn't "Sticking up the finger" if anything in his last post he blatantly said he can see that him being lynched can lead towards some benefits and the way he phrased it all came across very natural.

[Baseline]

Abaddon, I realize you were providing your own reads, what I'm asking you to do however is to actually

read

into Aether specifically because as far as I can tell the case is very slam-dunk in the fact that he's actually

caught in a lie

if you just do the

reading

that I'm telling you to do on him.

[Baseline]

Declan, I think you're probably town at this point but your scum-hunting and reasoning behind your votes here are terrible, you need to stop basing your read of everyone solely on how they've read or interacted with you and look at the bigger picture. Furthermore the whole 'Oh woe is me' and 'If you don't get off me I'll scum read you' attitude has to end, it's gone on far too long and it's not a good manner to play in at all.

Baseline, your "caught in a lie" case does not hold water with me. It is entirely meta-based, and "I do this every game" is probably a hyperbole to start with. The above is a far more solid case than the centerpiece of yours. / To clarify my "entirely meta-based" comment, I feel meta should only be used to back up or refute an in-game read, and any case founded initially upon a meta assertion is illegitimate.

Except you have the way it all came about very wrong. He posted a list of reads in % style that was incredibly fabricated and unnatural, Absta (I think) pointed this out and asked if he has any games where he has done that as town, Aethers excuse was that he does it every game, I can't find that being the truth at all, that means that his unnatural reads isn't a commonality like he claimed it was to try and cover up the fact that it all makes no sense.

@baseline:

I don't think I've every played with you. What meta have you got from me?

I followed Newbie 1259 where you were scum and Newbie 1276 where you were town.

[Baseline]

Welcome Demon, catch up with the game and let us know your thoughts please.

Furcwagon is a dead end. He was pretty much just trolling all game and if anything manner in which he did was townish. Give Demon time to provide real content from that slot if you really want a better chance to read it. In the meantime you should join me on Aether, haven't understood a single post of his lately.

Abaddon, explain your scum read on Shos to me becasue other than his first few posts I'm not seeing anything of his that can really even be construed as scummy.

Also RCs frustration towards Declan in Post 379 is extremely genuine. Very much more confident he's town now.

@Base - Will you join me on the City waggon?

There's a lot more support for an Aether lynch than a City one so you should be joining me here.

[Baseline]

Baseline, your vote makes little sense unless you think City is bussing her buddy. I was expecting a "City isn't scum" response.

Go re-read her again, you'll find her stance on Aether actually makes them incredibly likely partners. She votes him after the manufactured reads but does literally nothing whatsoever to try and get traction on his wagon or get him lynched, doesn't mention him again and just lurks into the background.

[Baseline]

@Baseline

Do you not agree that scum would be more likely to defend their partners Day 1 in 10 - 3 setup?

I couldn't disagree more. I find scum tend to distance and 'buss' very very often in smaller games, they know that their only chance of winning is by one of them attaining enough town cred to not get lynched down the track and often find that placing a vote on partners fairly early on can be something used to dissuade them from being lynched if their partner does ultimately get lynched. There's probably a hundred or so examples I can find proving this but I'll show you one from my last game alongside with a post from it. Evilgorrilaz voted his scum partner MonkeyMan in this post which was the third vote on MonkeyMan at the time where he was gaining a lot of heat and

never

unvoted the entire day even when others in front of him had unvoted, he ended up being the first vote on MonkeyMan by the end of the D1 scum lynch on Monkey but if you look at him throughout the day he never really pushes on Monkey at all, just lurks, the exact same thing that City is doing with Aether. Also if you really think that scum don't buss or vote partners early on then I suggest you read this post and take something away from it.

[Baseline]

Aether, it's time to claim.

[Baseline]

Rainbowdash, greatly appreciate you not hinting towards who I am, just to confirm though you know I'm not the person that sent you a PM asking to replace into your game ages ago but rather someone that person gave his account to, right? I'm still not sure on the Grey-slot, pretty much my thought process is rapids actions make it likely scum but Greygnarls meta attack on Absta is a town-tell, also think greygnarl-scum would be somewhat against an Absta night kill so if anything Absta-Cop-Flip-Night-Death makes him more likely town. Also main reason I wasn't on City yesterday was because I was fairly certain of Aether-Scum and their interactions read highly likely as partners. Anyway very much willing to lynch CE today, Absta night-kill when he was pushing on her for the second half of the day makes a ton of sense for CE-Scum, fear of being investigated, fear of being pushed on ect. I don't agree with your RC or DG scum reads at all, like fairly sure both are wrong. I've been wrong and burned by RC before but his thought process reads and genuineness behind his posts all come across as town and it's not the same sort of play as I've seen him play as scum in other games, wouldn't mind you explaining your scum read on him for me. Also DGs last posts have been fairly town and there's a specific thing that he says in Post 274 that makes me think that he's not the way to go, only thing that made me hold back from it being such a strong thing yesterday was my scum-read on Aether, if you read super close between the lines and do some researching then you'll know what I'm talking about (Also has to do with your slot). I am interested in your read on FourTrouble/Demon despite their low posts and Buldemar too would be highly appreciated.

Shos, Furc was replaced by Rainbowdash, the slot is town, we're not lynching them, please trust me on this.

I'd bank on Shos/Radelle/RedCoyote/Rainbowdash/Declan and to a slightly lesser degree Abaddon-Town. Leaves CE + 2 of [Buldemar/Greygnarl/DC] as scum.

Vote: City

[Baseline]

So going through this ISO I'm feeling like I'm just looking at an active lurker, but not quite, more some creature between active lurker and someone who participates in low pace. I see nothing inherently scummy, just lots of filler posts and such. can anyone give me the case on CE? I don't think one has been built yet and I wanna see one. so meanwhile I'm sticking to my vote on Dashie.

Active lurking and filler posting are fairly solid scum-tells, especially when it's done by a player who has showed in the past that they're capable to think things through on a relatively deep level and share their thoughts in more depth. Do agree that RDS point of her having 'convenient suspects' isn't as strong as he's making it out to be, with that said though she wasn't first on Aether, Absta was, she was second and she was about last on adding Furc to her scum pile without any reasoning added behind it whatsoever. She was very reactive rather than proactive defending more than scumhunting which is a massive scum-tell.

PEdit: The above post by Citys a perfect example of what I'm talking about, it's responding solely to the fact that people are suspecting her rather than stating reads, thoughts or laying down a vote, it's a self-preservation type post rather than anything else.

@Baseline: why is grey's meta-attack on absta a town tell? and why would an absta NK be against gnarlscum? - it was his scumread, so being modproven wrong is something that as scum you can use to cast practically any reads you want (since obviously your line of thought has to be changed, etc etc). and how does the fact that absta flipped cop changes anything? not scum nor town knew anything there. if any, scum would probably look for crumbs or PR tells and try to get them lynched, and if not, then killed. so please explain.

oh man you gotta stop writing in blocks I keep losing myself in that quote >< you have a good point about the fact that absta looked at CE-scum. I join the questions about your DC/RC scumreads, must have missed you calling RC scum too, since at the last post I asked about DG/GG...>_> Is there a reason that you sent us to look closely and between-the-lines and not just said what part of 274 made you think what you think?? I've read that one and I'm not seeing anything spectacular, extraordinarily towntelling. I do have a townread on DG now but I'm interested in this.

lol @ me voting furc at the time xD that was phoneposting too early inthe morning xD now what the hell. RD posted *ONCE* before that post. with furc's early play, how on earth are you reading this as town now? last I checked I don't fall for 'trust me' much, so you'll have to elaborate.

I tend to find that meta-attacks are done by town a great deal more than scum, I think I went into this earlier but scum like to create attacks that can't be broken down easily and generally a meta-attack on a town player can be refuted. For instance if someone says X does this as town, they're town here and they're not doing it here X can easily verify or call bullshit on that claim by linking to their own games so scum pushing a lynch via meta solely is something that's a rarity. Similarly scum like to be able to have someone they can vote thus they don't shoot their scum-reads and while your point of "He can start afresh with his reads" is somewhat logical he hadn't really stated reads on anyone else beforehand so nothing was stopping him from doing such without shooting Absta. Don't get me wrong, he very much might be scum but think Abstas death decreases the odds of it a little, and Absta flipping cop has no relevance, ignore that bit.

Yeah, there's a reason I said 'between-the-lines' I'll point it out if it's completely needed but it's not at the moment and truthfully it's probably better if I don't have to, if it ever looks like RD or Declan are getting run up I'll explain in super detail though. RDs post matches meta-town-him that I know, seen and played quite a few open games with him in the past and he's very much in-your-face with his reads as town and a bit more reserved as scum, as scum he likes to integrate himself into everyones good books and get them to value his opinion as town he just upfront calls it as it is. Also Furcs play is just Furc being a moron and terrible player, a lot of what he did was pretty much trolling but if you look at his City push re; 'rolefishing' he actually believes it.

[Baseline]

Rainbow, you must have missed my question but what's your read on Buldemar and FourTrouble/DemonCore.

[Baseline]

If you want to have a look at what she's like elsewhere I linked her meta earlier but here is two completed games; Newb1259-Scum and Newb1276-Town. The scum-tell with her having 'similar reads as others' is that she hasn't showed any reasoning behind her reads and the stances are all very 'safe' in that it doesn't stick her out in the crowd, it's what scum like doing. The difference between City and Gnarl when it comes to 'active lurking' is that City has been here all game whereas Greygnarl replaced in during the latter half of yesterday. Also I get what you're saying about her Post 456 but at the same time I think as town being called out for doing nothing at all she'd have voiced her current opinions but she didn't at all, makes more sense as scum buying time.

And yes, I think Furcolow is a big enough moron to think there's a difference between 'town' and 'townie'.

[Baseline]

Just finished working a 12 hour shift, will make dinner and then get to this game.

[Baseline]

Terrible fucking day at work and now reading this thread has made me want to pull my hair out.

Citys reaction towards this whole thing and the 'Vote Rainbowdash for tunneling me!" is god awful, especially given he replaced in less than one real life week ago, she's literally giving no effort whatsoever to even provide anything that comes across as town and if she's serious about 'apologising for lack of contribution D1' that'd be her utmost goal but it's not happening. I need to assign time to sit down and read the other meta scum game she linked, at work all day tomorrow and a golf tournament after and a wedding all day Saturday but should be able to slot it in on Sunday morning / afternoon before my date. Still fairly sure she's scum though.

Shos, you're an idiot and every post you're making is making me give a rats ass less and less and less about your opinion but I'll give you one last chance to win back what you're losing, get of RD and actually vote scum. The argument for Furc-Scum is so weak and essentially revolves around him being 'anti-town' which while I don't disagree with is something that isn't really an alignment indicative tell for Furcolow especially give how he seems to not give a shit about the game to the level where he replaces out him 'voting' before replacing out isn't a scum-tell whatsoever as there'd be no motivation behind doing an action for a game you're not planning on being part of furthermore if anything the manner he replaced out and complained about being attacked 'personally' is somewhat of a town-tell, scum don't take peoples insults to heart as much as town, you'll find if someone says something bad to me or insults me and I'm scum it won't phase me whatsoever and know it's the case with a great deal of other players. Not just that though but RDs replace in and aggression towards pushing City is a big town-tell, how about this, instead of mentioning Furc in your next post let me know why you think RD specifically is scum because I'm very willing to bet a lot he's not and don't give me the "Can't ignore the previous players contribution to the slot!" bullshit because if you're getting even some town vibes from RD then voting him due to predecessor makes zero sense.

In 278 redcoyote says " I make concerted efforts to keep my points concise and easy to understand as town.". And yet i feel when he has been here he has done anything but that. He posts lots of multiquotes and throws in little tidbits but hasnt done any real scum hunting imo. Beyond that his play can be compared very closely to the case on CE. Right down to sitting on his early vote of Aether and sitting there aboard the wagon all the way to lynch, despite listing me as most scum somewhere. And im pretty sure i got to at least L-2 during that time. Very odd.

Alright, lets get some things straight, RC posting in multi-quotes is a null-tell, he does it every game, feel free to check any of his other games if you don't believe me about it. He also throws in little non-game related tid bits to lighten the mood here and there, again it's fairly non-alignment related. "He hasn't done any real scumhunting", I disagree quite strongly with this, think his thoughts and reads have been fairly genuine so mind explaining to me where you're getting the lack of scumhunting from him from. Him not voting you is a scum-tell how? I don't vote scum-reads if I have a stronger scum-read I'm more confident is mafia, compromising is something that I try and avoid or delaying doing until completely needed.

There's a few more things that I want to get of my mind but for some reason I've forgotten them. Bleh. If I remember I'll write them down on a sticky pad or something and come and type them up later. I want to see a shitload more from Greygnarl and DemonCore when I get back though.

[Baseline]

I'll be

V/LA for the next 48 hours.

Might try and print of the last few pages and take them with me so I can catch up.

[Baseline]

I'm back. Crazy weekend.

Don't fully buy CE's claim, the breadcrumbing is incredibly weak especially given the sheer amount of other capitalised words inside the same post alone.

Think it's actually optimal if we mass-claim now though.

Put it this way; Odds are that scum are going to have a member fake-claiming FH or CE is fake claiming FH. That means we'll have 3 FH claims with 2 being town, putting this entire pool to the side for later means we can scumhunt more effectively elsewhere today. Plus it means if we get a FH death PoE the fake-claim inside the FH's will become incredibly easier.

Very much prefer a Demon Core lynch to anywhere else at the moment I think. He has yet to state any content whatsoever since replacing in and is rather just prod-dodging and avoiding picking any real stances other than his randomly placed and reasonless Abaddon vote. It's the opposite of what he did when replacing into Gorchats game here where he was town and very eager to contribute and jump into the game. Greygnrals probably second preference.

Need to look at Bulb again too though, specifically his last few attacks on D_G but D_Gs 'Why did you protect X' line of reasoning and thought process towards City strengthens my town-read on him pretty strongly. Want to look at Radelle again soon too since she's dropped under the radar. Might make a pot of green tea and go over the ISOs now or at latest tomorrow morning.

Unvote, Vote: Demon

[Baseline]

Can you explain again why it is optimal that we massclaim now? yes, odds are indeed that scum will fakeclaim FH at least with one guy. so we'll have 3+ FH claims with 2 being town, which will divide the group to two teams: one is 2/3 town (or 2/4, no way all will fakeclaim hehe) and the other is 6/8 town (or 7/8). it makes one scum (or two) much easier to navigate,(but will end up with the scum dying WITH the two real FHs) and the rest of the scumteam will be much HARDER to find. I don't see any benefits from massclaiming right now. if in any way any time a FH dies then if we massclaim, the otehr FH is doomed ASAP. I think that we should hide the other FH, and that he should be protecting CE while CE protects whoever. or something like that. if you still think massclaim is better, convince me.

Are you comfortable with a lynch based on policy+meta alone? I think that grey is a much better lynch at the moment - that slot HAS been posting and yet has about the same benefit to the game if not worse. I can compromise on DC eventually since I'm not that hardcore on grey, but if you just switch your first & second I'll be happy..

Scum won't double-fake-claim FH, no chance of it. It'll be 3 FH claims and 8 VT claims with it being 1/3 scum in FH and 2/8 scum in VT. Benefit behind it is that we no longer have to focus and scumhunt on the 3 FH claims at all which means we can hone in on mutual scum reads inside the VTs. Scum will have to either kill a FH and give us a 1/2 chance of hitting scum in there or alternatively shoot in the VTs which will narrow down the odds of hitting scum in there as well, it's a win win situation.

I prefer DC to Greygnarl but given the mass-single-votes if no one joins me on DC soon I'll join you.

[Baseline]

I'm sorry baseline but, does 'town loses two faith healers and scum lose one guy' count as a win-win to you?

Yes, it really really does. We're nearly never going to win an extra ML through successful protections as it'd require us to win 50/50 battle twice and also require a doctor to be saving the night kill and the other doctor to not be saving that night kill. FHs only usefulness at the moment is the fact that it separates the playerlist from just being 11 of one claim thus giving us potential clears down the track but given that scum are going to CC FH or already have the best we can do is mass-claim to increase the odds of hitting scum today through it.

[Baseline]

We're lynching DC today after mass-claiming has occurred, look at his activity elsewhere (Do it). And we

are

doing the mass-claim, I'm pretty sure I also know a bunch of people who aren't a FH and know one person that I think is going to claim FH so we might as well get this underway and narrow down the suspect pool.

Grey, your attack on Shos for 'having multiple scum-reads' is terrible, I have 3ish people I'd be somewhat comfortable lynching too at this point.

RC, I'd have probably agreed and joined you on Buldemar a few days ago but his recent posts actually seem somewhat town, the level of frustration he has that DG isn't lynched is genuine. Also his reaction towards the mass-claim idea isn't what I think he'd do as scum.

[Baseline]

Except he's stated scum-reads on A/B/C in the past so wanting to lynch a scum-read is entirely understandable. And his 'Maybe D/E' is if a good case is presented.

I mean I know what you're trying to say, you're saying he's leaving himself open to join any potential mslynch but it's not the case here.

PEdit: Will read shos post in a minute.

[Baseline]

I see no reason to vote DC even if he is posting in other topics from time to time. he doesn't post there much as well.

[SNIP]

something is wrong with this game. it feels like we're fucking completely off the radar, like the

scum are just laying low since we're just missing them

and not caring. that's what my gut says. off for the night, NUTSSS

First bolded is wrong, go take another look. He's really not even giving this game an ounce of effort. And second bolded is right you're just missing it: DC.

Pedit: D_G, we're mass-claiming in a tiered system order but since you jumped the gun popcorn it to someone in tier 1 in Post 643.

[Baseline]

Welcome Zar and RachMarie, catch up as fast as you can please. We're entering a popcorn tiered mass-claim at the moment.

come on shos. if I continued to lurk you would have pushed your case anyway, but if I actually started playing (like you begged me to) you come back at me with this?

Your excuse for lurking of 'lost everything!!' comes across as bullshit, that's why. If you lost everything on D1 I think you'd have stated as much or at least tried to summarize your reads then in 2 lines such as town; x/y/z and scum; x/y/z but you didn't, you just prod-dodged until pressured.

I've still not found your answer to shos re; town-reads. You're stating they don't need explaining because they're 'reasonable' but I don't think they are at all. You claim your town-read on CE has nothing to do with her claim because you believe her due to her being a town-read so what other than her claim makes you think she's town? Similarly what about Greygnarl makes you think he's town and is there a reason you've refrained from stating a read on Buldemar and myself in your reads list there? Explain the Radelle-Scum-Read for me other than DG related things because I can kind of see where an Abaddon scum read might come from but not at all the case with Radelle. Also your constant threats and statements of 'replacing out' feels incredibly off.

alright so VOTE: Declan_giggs

I can't tell if you're doing this on purpose or not but you're making me weep. I'm very very sure that Declans slot is town. His holding of and wanting to post that about Buldemar is actually massively townish and not just that but also makes his whole push on Buldemar and reaction towards his early game very understandable. His replace out of "Don't want to make this hard for you all" is superbly town since scum that's been here all game and put effort into a game where we've mslynched and cop has died won't want to replace out purely to avoid someone like Buldemar insulting them. He's town. Super super town. I really can't even see how you're thinking otherwise right now dude, nearly any vote would be better than that (Other than perhaps Rainbow / RC).

[Baseline]

Woah, this is a bigger wall than I intended. I'll try and be more summarized in the future.

the fact that he held off that thing about bulder - that doesn't mean anything. you do not base a meta read on one game; if you bothered to actually open and read all the games which bulder played in, THEN you can do such a thing. so yes, bulder has just one scum game and one town game which is his first, but still if you read them both you'll see that DG was completely and inherently wrong. furthermore, yes, we are not allowed to talk about ongoing games, but we are not forbidden to look in them and conclude stuff for ourselves without talking about it. I did all that. DG's case on bulder is inherently wrong, it's completely a null tell. so not only am I not voting bulder; but I will also vote DG, for I know that he knows this basic stuff, and him doing stuff like that is fake. also remember that I had him pegged as scum from before - I only removed that thought because of guts - so now it's risen back and I am, as you said it, 'very very sure' that the Declans slot is scum. we'll have to agree to disagree and hope we don't get to 3p lylo with him together XD

I haven't done the reading into Buldemars meta yet or at least not to the level I need and I probably should go and read the specifics of D_Gs attack against him - will be something I do tonight but I do know that when I play with someone even if it's just one game or two or plenty I really attempt to compare and contrast their play and try and get a meta read based on it and while his points may not be 'accurate' or 'correct' I think the way he attempted to compare games and the way his attitude towards Buldemar is a big town-tell. Something to note for later; If someones cases is 'wrong' or 'flawed' it doesn't always make them scum, town sadly enough lie and exaggerate cases or at least view them in their own little light to make themselves more confident they're right, the aim isn't whether to judge if their case has a lot of validity (Unless you're reading it to see if to sheep them or not) but rather to read it and see if their motivation is makes sense when it comes to hunting scum and I think D_Gs case is exactly that.

his replaceout is completely null. he did not replace out in order to 'make it easy', not at all. he was annoyed and the 1v1 tunneling argument is definitely not alignment telling especially when it has risen to curses. "go fuck a monkey", damn I laughed... /offtopic. anyway - yes he has put lots of effort into this game and replaced out but still that is not alignment tellin. there's only two thins imo that can be alignment telling when someone replaces out - one is if he is giving last breath reads, like, "jsut kill bla bla bla, mod replace me" - which he didn't do; and the other is meta - like, Om of the Nom tends to replace out a lot as scum. a LOT. and almost never as town. how comes you keep thinking the same on DC when his threat to replace out is of the same reason, sort of?

another thing - town replacing out is usually a bad thing, since catching up on a long game is hard and usually confuses people, lags the game, etc which is better for scum. it's not like he helped so much when he replaced out you know.

I think his replace out was because he 1) Realized the game was getting stupid with their back and forths and wanted to remove that and 2) Out of frustration. Town get frustrated when they are ignored or suspected, a lot. Scum less so, scum know that it's natural for them to get suspected or for people to be less inclined to sheep their reads and cases, his manner of replacing out here is massively townish. Also his point about post #4 of town replacing out in confirmation period is probably wrong however the manner he brought it up earlier in his large reads post and again here really really feels like he believes it's true and the case which is again another big point for him being town. Now there's a difference when it comes to scum replacing out or at least Demons threats of replacing out and DGs follow through with it. Scum that feel like they've put a lot of effort into a game and feel like they're in a good position have little to no reason to replace out at all; they'd be doing well so what would their motivation be for leaving a potential win that they've likely heavily contributed to whereas scum that only just replaced into a game and have done little don't feel 'close' to the game so to speak and thus don't mind replacing out and if they're worried about having a weak scum game do replace out. Om is in that category exactly, he has probably one of the weakest scum games on the entire site, the difference between his town and scum game is significant and he feels demotivated as scum thus the replace outs. Also I'd disagree re; replacements, town replacements are actually a massively good thing, it allows another persons reads and another point of view on the game , one that isn't biased due to earlier play and emotions that are brought up from it.

[Baseline]

Shos, I don't see how you can 'disagree' with the fact that 1) His push on Buldemar is understandable and town and 2) His replace-out is so very town.

okay it took me seven freaking hours but I finished reading this. coming with reads in my next post.

Zar-Town wouldn't read it all at once. Only Zar-Scum would.

Look forward to your reads.

[Baseline]

Zar, I know this is probably pot-calling-kettle-black because my catch up posts aren't exactly super reader friendly but in future can you link the post # when you do it, you just have to do [post=Postnumber][/post] because I had to drag up a few players ISOs to understand what exactly you were talking about at times. Also I think RDs comment about City not doing it D1 had to do with her not 'breadcrumbing' D1 rather than outright claiming.

RE: 1) I don't see how his play here is even close to his play in Lourve (Only ISOed him there so a lot of context missing) there he is less obtusive and alienated himself a lot less than he has here, plus there's a level of emotion here that comes across as very genuine that's missing there. If you want me to grab some more links to show you what I mean exactly then I'll do so but think times better spent on a lot of other things if you agree that RD is town.

RE: 2) Town-read on Shos isn't solely about Post 18 / Post 19 and other setup related lack of information slips but rather the fact that his thought process and scumhunting is something that I can understand a lot at times even if it's incredibly aggravating. I link people without flips too, think it's very natural to do as town not because you're aiming to nail the exact scum-team (Though that's a benefit if it happens) but because you can work out I have a scum-read on X and on Y but don't think they work as partners, need to re-think them or scum-read on X/Y/Z and they work as partners, that strengthens the scum-read. Also I think I've been focusing quite a bit at players that haven't been around much too, think scum are lurking since my strongest town-reads are in the more active players and I have weakerish town-reads on the other semi-active players.

RE: D_G, I find his AtE to be super genuine, he legitimately seemed like he was up-against-a-rock earlier with everyone pushing on him and the manner in which he was reacting comes across as him trying to stick to his reads and attempt to scumhunt albeit too much based around peoples opinion and stances of him but in a way that I've seen from town a lot. I can understand seeing his early/mid game as 'bad' and to a degree even 'scummy' but I think you're flat out wrong when you're stating there's 'no town mindset or motivation' and think his later play since about 2-3 days before end of D1 to now has been incredibly townish.

[Baseline]

Oh, a wise guy, huh? I finally sit down (because I finally have time to get to you) and I lose a moderately lengthy post and all you can do is let confirmation bias kick in and call bullshit about something that you know nothing about?

It's not confirmation-bias at all. I can understand having limited time to get to the game at points, heck about a weekish or even less ago I was struggling to give this game the needed time and attention but what I *don't* understand is typing up a big post then having it deleted and not even mentioning it at the time or summarizing your thoughts then. Typing up "Sorry guys but my post got deleted but read through and think X/Y/Z" takes two minutes which is such a small amount of time that you could have got it done in. You not doing that and turning up now saying "Push on me is only confirm bias I replace out if keep going" is so fake.

The stuff with DG is the cornerstone of my scumreads on radelle and abaddon because it kind of dominates the game. Now, as for the townreads, it's mostly gut (I really never go into townreads because most of them I can't explain, you either see what I see or you don't); all I can really say is that they come off as sincere to me.

So Radelle and Abaddon = Scum solely for pushing on D_G and that's literally it? Also you didn't state a read on me/buldemar at all in your last post too when I brought it up. If the reads are 'gut' or 'hard-to-explain' reads then point to which posts you're getting the gut reads from or what looks genuine, and I will be going through all your completed games in about an hour to check if you don't go into town-reads because I followed along Gorchats game and remember you stating and explaining town-reads but will need to check it all up.

[Baseline]

RC, what you're missing is that scum already likely know the FHs just via how everyones responded, it's fairly obvious who *isn't* a FH at least and lets say that scum are not going to cc FH then having them out in the open allows them to be on each other which gives us a 25% shot of gaining another mslynch which is about the best we can hope from with them. Other than the smallish shot of winning us another mslynch the only things they are is named townies and at this point having them claim be on each other and let us hunt elsewhere narrows down the focus pool. Also we've started mass-claim, we're finishing it.

[Baseline]

It's not like "X troll is/isn't faith healer", nothing like that and at this point I'd rather not get very specific because it'll help scum work out what's likely to come in the mass-claim but there is quite a few people who objectively aren't FHs if you look at what they say.

[Baseline]

Got the time I wanted to sit down and do the meta-check into Demon:

In Micro 43 he was town and he barely had any town-reads but given it was a 5P Vengeful with 2 scum in the game that's somewhat understandable, his play there was a lot more active and in-the-midst of things and his push and realization of being wrong on Melmond is miles away from anything he's done in this game. In Micro 34 he replaced in as town and had a burst of inital thoughts reads and opinions despite not even having his role PM at the time which is play that would be the same as town-play. Explains scum-reads in great detail, shows thought process behind reads. Does only touch on reasoning behind his town-reads but doesn't just call them all 'gut'. Micro 19 he was town, explains scum reads in detail and very very active. Micro 22 as town, very active, detailed thoughts on things less-so on town-reads though but a lot of activity and Open 434 replaced in as scum, flaked two weeks later but while he was there was a lot less active, showed a lot less thought process. In Micro 61 he was scum and was substancially less active than his town games sharing very little thoughts and prod-dodging quite a bit.

So overall his point about not explaining town reads in detail checks out but his play here is more like his scum play than his town play.

[Baseline]

Baseline, I know you have a strong town read on him, but for him to do this as town he'd have to be so incredible clueless. The town thing to do would be linking the parts of the other game that's relevant for his supposed meta and explain how that affects my alignment in this. The town thing to do would be not to get emotionally involved and tunnel excessively while not recommending that other people actually read the case on me (namely the supposed meta from the other game). If he was town and not just interested in getting me lynched but wanting to find out my true alignment I don't see why he'd do as he.

See the thing is there's a 'good play thing to do' and a 'town thing to do' and they're not always the same. In most cases it's optimal to remove emotion from the game and look at everything logically but not everyone can do that, people get attached to games, to reads, to players and let bias creep in. So him getting 'emotionally involved' in tunnelling or pushing on you is if anything a town-tell. Lets put it another way, what's his ultimate aim as scum there? To push a bullshit meta case and then look bad if he does somehow get you lynched and you flip town? While attracting a lot of attention from pushing and clinging onto the case and read? I can't see his push coming from scum at all, especially not to the degree he seemed to believe it. I still plan on taking some time and looking at exactly what he's pointing out as specifics with his case but even if it's incredibly wrong logically I don't see it being a scum-tell.

Good thing though is that Post 766 to Post 768 has strengthened my town read on you by quite a lot.

[Baseline]

Town have emotion factor into things much more naturally than scum so while there's the point of 'emotion being advantageous' for scum it's nearly always going to come into play for town. Town get frustrated when they're unfairly called out on something, town get frustrated when they're suspected, town get frustrated when their scum reads aren't getting lynched, town get frustrated when their town reads are getting suspected. Emotion is just a natural part of the game for town. It's not optimal play, but it's there. Scum on the other hand don't naturally get emotional about something unless it's really them feeling they're unfairly treated and that rarely happens, instead scum have to fake emotion and faking emotion isn't easy, not at all. So do you think Declans push, aggression and emotion towards you is 'faked' if not then it's at worst a null-tell and at best a town-tell (Hint: It's a town-tell).

We're erring a little far to theory-discussion though.

[Baseline]

Still waiting for Abaddon to claim + popcorn it.

Shos, sounds like we're just not going to agree on D_G ever. Post-game or whenever he dies should prove I'm right though but "Mafia push lynches hard because they get called town for pushing lynches hard" is you reaching to find reasons to keep calling him scum because you want him to be.

Can you remind me why you currently prefer a Demon Core vote over greygnarl?

I'd happily lynch Greynarl but I think DCs avoidance of actually stating any detailed thoughts about the game while lurk/prod-dodging for ages is a bigger scum-tell. Also because I got it in my head that there were a few small town-tells from greygnarl that decrease the odds of him being mafia but reading back through his ISO about the only things I see are his absta-push-meta-wise and it following with absta dying being the only things even remotely town.

[Baseline]

Deadlines creeping up far too fast. If Abaddon hasn't claimed and popcorned by the time I wake up in 8 or whatever hours I'll claim and everyone else can when they can online after that, this game really needs a kick of activity from people.

Also Demon, you stated you had a town meta-read on RC so want to explain what changed between that and Post 800.

[Baseline]

Someone unvote. Can't get to sleep while knowing that it's possible for this day to end by some dumb quick hammer while I'm asleep or away.

PS: Demon Core is still a 100x better lynch than Abaddon and Abaddons post above reads as town but finish up this mass-claim first.

Popcorns too slow given deadline. I'm VT. Everyone claims in their next post here.

[Baseline]

Optimal play is probably to lynch outside of FHs and leave them for later but pretty damn confident that both RD and Buldemar are town plus Buldemars claim is unbelievably genuine so this is fine for now. Think it's obvious but will say it anyway - both FHs on each other tonight.

DemonCore needs hanging tomorrow. Not sure what to make of Greygnarl, think his vote on CE in Post 822 is more of a scum-tell than anything else because he was already voting her at the time. Plus re-voting her at a time when there wasn't even a single claim other than her when there's two of the role makes no sense even if there's a 'gut' feeling. Scum would have known she'd have been counterclaimed though and thus would have felt more inclined to start pre-bussing her.

Dash, want a set and list of reads from you before the day ends.

PEdit: Not ready for the day to end so I'll remove my vote.

[Baseline]

@baseline: why do you think that lynching outside of the FH pool is better? lesser odds you know.?

In this case given how obvscum CE is it's not. In another situation it would be, reasoning being simple; Scum at night would be forced into having two choices, 1) Shoot a FH or 2) Shoot a VT. In scenario 1) the next day we'd have a 1/2 shot of hitting scum there which is incredibly high and in 2) We still maintain the two separate pools to scumhunt inside. So every day scum will have to either sacrifice their scum member in the FHs or narrow down the VT scum pool for us.

[Baseline]

Baseline, why are you not ready for the day to end?

Pretty sure that scum will be targeting Rainbowdash tonight and if the 50% protect doesn't work then I want his last reads and thoughts.

[Baseline]

Alright, happy for the day to end now.

Vote: CityElectric

[Baseline]

That's L-1. Someone can hammer away.

[Baseline]

Pre-typed this while I was bored at night.

Rainbowdash and

Buldemar are confirmed town. I'm very connfident that Shos, Rach and Zar are town, if anyone wants these explained in more detail feel free to ask, I'll touch on some of it in a second though. That leaves there to be two scum inside of Abaddon, Demon Core, Greygnarl and RedCoyote.

In Post 170 FourTrouble Demon Cores predecessor coments on just about everyone other than CE. In Post 693 DC says that CE is a town-read and the phrasing points heavily towards the town-read not having to do because of her claim but for other reasons, when pushed to out reasoning behind some of his odd reads he gets defensive and avoids it. When pushed further he says it's mostly gut, very much comes across as scum townreading partner and not being able to back it up.

I still don't think Greys vote attempt on City in Post 822 makes any sense logically at all and I don't really buy his 'gut' explanation, think the whole thing reeks of scum having inside information knowing that she would be cc'ed and pre attempting to get town cred from it. Also think City voting Greygnarl in Post 647 while stating she's fine with mass-claiming works as distancing; she'd have known that the mass-claim would have ended with massive suspicion on her and would have potentially ended in her lynch thus voting him there is a no-risk move.

Abaddons stance on City in Post 284 is incredibly waffly. Need to see some content from him today, badly.

Sadly interaction wise with City RC doesn't look that good at all. That said I still find a lot of his play, particularly his frustration towards Declan to be genuine and think he's still playing to his town meta so not really interested in going this direction out of the four left.

Declans insistence on getting an answer from City about why she saved Radelle is not partners talking to each other. It flat out blatantly isn't. Take a look - Post 544, Post 563, Post 568, 569], Post 571, Post 602, Post 612 and Post 614. Anyone that votes or states a FoS on that slot after reading those now will be burned at a stake, either in-game or post-game. Oh and City claiming to have 'saved' Radelle/Zar strengthens my town-read there, I don't think she's ballsy enough to fake a save claim on her partner and Zars replace in attitude matches of what I know of his town meta.

So all up my preference is probably Demon > Grey > Abaddon > RC.

Vote: Demon

[Baseline]

Sorry to hear about that Rach, take however long you need.

Buldemar, if you're interested into reading into my meta I have one completed game that's still avaliable at the site on this account, it's Mini 1382 where I also replaced in as town. And at the moment it seems that the number of people who know my main account is spreading fairly rapidly so if really needed I wouldn't mind outting my main and there'll be a lot of meta you can get from those games. Either way though I think what's most needed from you today is to go through CEs ISO and let us know your thoughts on who is/isn't likely partners interaction wise.

Greygnarl, CEs vote on Abaddon in Post 805 is fairly null. She would have known mass-claim would be completed and there would be a counter claim to her and thus knew that the Abaddon lynch wouldn't have gone through but rather people would have unvoted, looked elsewhere and looked specifically into her. That said I do think his Post 818 where he seems comfortable being lynched comes across as fairly genuine. Think DC is the play today.

[Baseline]

Shos, I don't think RCs phrasing of asking for breadcrumbs is scummy. It's not the way I'd ask for it but it matches the way

he

phrases things.

RC, my biggest issue with you interaction wise isn't the fact that you didn't end up voting CE at the end of the day at all. It's the fact that you initially stuck her in your town pile in Post 161 and then stated a town read on her in Post 177 for reasoning that I wouldn't get a town-read on her for, it would make more sense for that all to end up with her being null or if anything her 'lack of doing anything' being a scum-tell there. That said I still think you're town so willing to give the benefit of the doubt but I think DC and Greygnarl are more likely to flip scum than your current Abaddon vote. Do you not find Adaddons final post yesterday to be genuine?

Zar, I find scum generally attempt to ignore partners whenever possible and FT was stating scum and town-reads inside his posts so him not stating a comment on her there means he can place her null which is what scum generally do with partners to avoid to have to give reasoning behind it.

[Baseline]

I just used the search function on his posts sitewide and sadly haven't found him doing in the past.

I still find his play genuine though.

[Baseline]

No, we haven't played together in the past.

[Baseline]

Thanksgiving is murdering this games activity. Bloody Americans.

[Baseline]

Well thanksgiving is over soon? so this game should revive.

Buldemar, mind if I ask where in Denmark out of curiosity? When I backpacked through there I found Copenhagen to be absolutely beautiful, the entire city is very reminiscent of old fairly tales but somehow preferred the atmosphere in Arhus.

[Baseline]

Sorry, been really busy lately.

Zar, I actually think the fact that CE didn't mention the FourTrouble slot in her reads list post actually strengthens the fact that they're a likely partnership - she probably based the placement of people via ISO reading them and thus determining what stance to have on them and scum often glimpse past or avoid reading partners posts because they don't feel inclined to respond to them so her not having the slot isn't a point against the pair. I'll go hunting for the games I'm talking about tomorrow afternoon where partners leave each other of lists though. I'll also go over Greygnarl again too then.

I live in Copenhagen on a street called Østerbrogade. It's near the center of the city. I've also lived in Århus. What else did you see in Denmark?

I decided to try the country in a different manner so I went and stayed in a farm in central Jutland for a week but all up spent a month in the country.

[Baseline]

@Mod - Surely it's near time to replace Abaddon.

RC, FT had replaced out before N1 I believe and CEs reads list where she missed FT was also before N1.

Demon Core is not CI, and I can see one partner forgetting to mention another one in a summary, but assuming optimal play I don't see how 2 partners would miss out on banking on cred by omitting comments on each other. Well, unless they're both terrible at scum.

Given how much lurking CE did I think it's it's very plausible that she didn't put massive effort into making sure she had everyone in her reads list so she would have done it solely for a quick attempt to seem town or be contributing - doing that she'd be jumping into ISOsing town before scum to put in the list. So yes, I think scum are more likely to miss a partner when they play like she does. And FTs wasn't including everyone, just everyone he was comfortable taking a stance on at the time and scum don't like taking a stance on partner thus less inclined to mention her in the reads list. So yeah, I think your 'scum wouldn't miss each other' line of logic is wrong but I'm struggling time wise at the moment so I'll have to delay grabbing links of where it's happened before until tomorrow as well as greygnarl reading.

I'll post something then, but I'm sure baseline will make it scummy.

I'm not that tunnel-visioned, you just haven't showed me anything to make me doubt my scum-read on you at all, well the only thing was the comment towards RD at the end of yesterday but that was minor and was just a gut thing which I try and not trust ever. And thank you for alt-slipping, a little birdy told me that you were Antihero when we were spectating another one of your games and I wanted to meta you on this account given the lack of scum games on DC but wasn't sure he was telling the truth so now I can get to the reading on that. If you want me to save hunting time and link a few of the scum games that'd be nice.

[Baseline]

I have tonight of so will be getting to the meta reading of Anti and grabbing the game links in the next few hours. Also think I might have noticed a pattern in CEs scum meta with her reads list, want to take another look over it when I'm not multi-tasking to see if it really holds any weight though.

Exactly. DC (Antihero) had joined the game before the day was over. Ergo, they would likely have mentioned to one another that they were conspicuously quiet about one another... but seemingly nothing changed on D2. You don't agree that's odd? Or do you think this is grasping at straws?

I don't think scum say "I didn't mention you much and your predecessor didn't talk to me much so we should mention each other more" to each other at night. In fact I don't think I've ever seen a conversation go along those lines so I think you're reaching with your reasoning for it making them a not-pair.

[Baseline]

I read through Antiheros scum-games and he's a lot more detmotivated and lurkeier in them then he is in his town games from what I've observed so I think he's also playing much stronger to his scum meta here. Seems to be a lack of support towards lynching him though which is dissapointing. If I ever die at some point and he isn't lynched then I want him dead before lylo and I want that promised to me because I think the odds of him flipping scum are relatively high.

Zar, the only smallish things from Greygnarl that made me think he might be town is his push on Absta upon replacing in followed up with Absta being NKed - it's not a progression scum usually do, with all that said though the fact that Absta was pushing strongly on CE means that scum likely had to shoot him rendering the entire 'X wouldn't shoot Y' thing fairly useless. His vote on CE during the mass-claim is a big point towards him pre-distancing and grabbing cred though so I'm very happy to join there if in return you join me on DC later if that picks up traction. I'll do the link grabbing of scum ignoring each other tomororw, sorry for the constant delaying on that, I get caught up in a bunch of other shit during the day leaving it until night and then either procrastinate doing meta reading instead or watch the cricket.

Unvote, Vote: Greygnarl

[Baseline]

Baseline, you have no risk of dying tonight anyway - since bulder is the confirmed FH, but in case I outlive you, I promise to remember your words, lol I took DC to be possibly scum too and will have probably no problem with seeing him lynched, but so far I still think RC has higher chance of flipping scum. Bulder is now voting antihero, so if you join too that's 2, and if I'm not going to be able to get an RC lynch(well bulder unvoted for your wagon, dammit) then I will join too.

I'm going to give him one more chance to convince me otherwise in his promised reads / content post in Post 935 which I'm still waiting on but his attempt at claiming apathy in this game is really unconvincing, the DG vs Buldemar battle is over and the walls aren't unreadably long at all so there's no excuse for it.

[Baseline]

Baseline, why are you not voting Antihero?

I'm waiting for his promised 'content' post and I'm waiting on it before I move back plus a lot of the small town-tells I had on Greygnarl are actually nullified with CE flipping scum and he's not at all attempting to actually scumhunt or contribute here; his stance from sheeping RC before to avoiding doing so now for instance comes across as awkward. Really nothing he's done today or yesterday come across as town-motivated and his vote on CE yesterday screams cred-grab.

[Baseline]

Just got back from a really crazy weekend, going to shower and get myself food and I'll get to this game in a few hours.

[Baseline]

Feeling significantly better about the Abaddon slot since Majiffys replace in. It's not for lynching. We're hanging Greygnarl today.

Antihero, I'm feeling leniant plus I'm growing far far more confident that Greygnarl is mafia so I'mg giving you one more post after this one to post legitimate reads with reasoning attached. Just saying to read RCs ISO for your scum-read on hims reasoning is really really weak and doesn't explain your townmeta read on him previously. So in your post I want you to state what you *thought* about his play matched his town meta why it *doesn't now* and what about his play is scummy.

Majiffy, your scum-read on Shos is misplaced (As is calling RC an idiot but that's seen you act him like that before so that's not really important here), while I'd agree that Shos actions during the whole buldemar thing earlier were scummy his play after that has been super super genuine and transparent. There's a few town-tells of his that are rather strong - specifically the fact that his Post 18 and Post 19 show that he doesn't know the setup and that's far more likely to come from town than from scum, if you need examples then I'm sure you remember The Chosen One where GreyICE didn't know the setup properly as shown in this post and also shown by Petpan in this post and even Ewo2 in this post so yeah that's a pretty big town-tell. Inclusion of meta comparisons and thoughts shared in his Post 70 is very townie, his push for more content doesn't come across as scum trying too hard but rather town annoyed by so much lurking, his push for replacements to post content straight away similarly is very town-motivated for the same reason. Things like Post 328, Post 451 and Post 633 also come across as super townie plus a lot more. I really really want you to actually read into these posts going into them with an open mind because I'm not often super super super confident in reads but this dudes town. Also if you're going to do some actual reading to narrow it down further I'd suggest you look at D_Gs interactions with City from Post 544 to Post 614 (There's only eight or so posts to read so it's not that much just cross ISO them from that period), the entire interaction isn't partner-to-partner so while RachMaries content is disappointing due to her being caught up with family emergencies the slot is still town. Glad you agree on Zar-Town though.

I'm starting to lean towards an RC lynch again.

See - this is pure bullshit and you just attempting to jump on the counterwagon to save yourself. You never had a scum-read on RC. Ever. You had a scum-read on about every other slot in the game [Abaddon, Absta, Declan, Rainbowdash, Shos] but not on RC. If anything he was someone you trusted more and stated you'd sheep him in Post 674 and Post 780. The turn around of read makes zero fucking sense. Literally none.

[Baseline]

I generally town-hunt better than I scum-hunt and while there are times where my scum-reads are pin-point it's more often that my strong town-reads are correct so I focus on making sure that they don't get lynched and that attention isn't wasted on them rather than on people actually likely to be scum.

[Baseline]

Fuck this game.

I want to go back and look to see if Antihero and RCs interactions work as partners because at this point if they don't then I have a read wrong somewhere because I'm fairly sure that Shos, Zar and RM are town and think Majjify is town too although it's weaker on him than the others. From a brief look I can see Antiheros vote on RC being an attempt to distance and buss at this point in the game though but I have this afternoon of so I'll spend some time then doing deeper reading into it.

Majjify, please actually go back read and respond to my Post 1048.

[Baseline]

Majjify, if you're saying that town-tells that he has aren't town-tells because they're 'droppable' that means that nothing is actually a town-tell because practically everything is droppable so your ignorance of some of the points that make shos obvtown is illogical.

Antihero, I've given you chance after chance after chance to explain your reads and thoughts and sway me or 'pull me out of my tunnel' if you prefer that term and you haven't, you've been literally avoiding doing so, take a look at this post. You're not a bad player, I've seen you put effort into the games as town so there's no excuse for you not explaining yourself in as much detail as possible. All you're doing is playing up an 'apathy' card to unbelievable amount and hoping we'll leave you alive a few days longer. And so what if Zar is posting 'in chunks', my posts are fairly wally too. PS: The Llamafluff comment is funnier than you'll ever know.

RC, I get a lot of your case on the Abaddon slot, I'm just finding elements of both of their play genuine. I'll be doing massive reading into the game hopefully today, was meant to do it yesterday but my brother introduced me to a game called Dota2 and it just ate away at my time.

[Baseline]

I'm pretty sure he's going to end up voting either you or Majjify.

Now can you answer my question to you in the post I linked.

[Baseline]

Sorry, my time is being massively eaten up everywhere else. Give me a day or two and I'll get to everything that needs to be done in this game. The time away from this game might actually help me clear my mind and get back with a fresh head.

[Baseline]

Please don't hammer yet. I've been struggling for time lately with weekend commitments but it's all very much slowing down and there's still plenty of reading I want to do before we even consider ending the day.

[Baseline]

Things have smoothed over completely now. Got the next few days free. If I haven't posted a wall of my thoughts by 12ish hours from now yell at me please.

[Baseline]

RC, who did you think was the fourth vote on you to mean that you were lynched. Also do you have a link to a game either as scum or town where you believed you were lynched when you weren't actually because with there only being four votes needed to be lynched I don't see how you can mistake being lynched or not at all, especially when the day has only been a page or two long making backtracking to check quite easy.

Antihero, RE: Post 1090, you're saying that as scum he's much more involved and that's why you had a town-read on him meta-wise, then saying reading through him there's not much there re; content and that while he's posting a little it's not addressing big things, so if he's more involved as scum and isn't that involved this game he'd be playing to his town-meta but you've flipped it around and stated he's playing to his scum meta. It doesn't make sense at all.

That's because there really aren't towntells. Look for motivation to find your towns. Content beyond the words.

Yes, and I don't see what scum motivation there is behind his posting but can see plenty of town motivation. If you're not going to explain why you think he's not town from the massive list of reasons I put forward how about we try it another way, explain to me slowly and in detail why he's scum.

Actually Baseline, shos is in the right here. I think RedCoyote is a better lynch than Majiffy.

I don't neccesarily disagree. I do though think Antihero is a better lynch than both of them and re; your reasoning behind with the vote count analysis of 3.5 I don't think VCA is that useful at all, there's very few situations where I think it holds weight and most of them are inside large games or games where scum lose a lot from bussing or strongly need to get mslynches through, I don't think this game is either of those.

Going to work through the partnerships now.

[Baseline]

I've got strong town-reads on Zar, Shos and Rachmarie so fairly sure it's one of the first three partnerships so will look at them in more detail:

Spoiler: Partnerships

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar
5. Antihero + Shos
6. Antihero + Rachmarie
7. RC + Zar
8. RC + Shos
9. RC + Rachmarie
10. Majjify + Zar
11. Majjify + Shos
12. Majjify + Rachmarie
13. Zar + Shos
14. Zar + Rachmarie
15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

Radelle / Zars interactions with other slots:

Radelles attack on D_G in Post 40 and Post 44 points against them being partners quite strongly. Her reasoning behind the read explained in Post 79 strengthens that and the phrasing of "I can't tell if Declan's post 76 is him flailing or going crazy, or both, really." is really really not talking about partners. Her questioning of whether he reads on phone or forum via noticing him lurking down the bottom in Post 99 also points against them being partners. Think I'm content enough just from that to rule out that partnership though I'm sure there's also plenty more ruling against it. This rules out #14 completely.

Radelle noticing the town-tell that I found on Shos as well in Post 78 is a pretty strong point against them being partners. Zars replacing in post in Post 752 of him stating that he thinks I'm clearing people for silly reasons and that he thinks the strength of my town-read on Shos is too strong points against them being partners, if they were he'd be content just letting me continue and use it against me. All up content to rule out #13 from it.

Radelle never mentions RC, Zars replace in post Post 752 states a fairly solid town-read on the slot, turns it around in Post 1070 based on VCA analysis (Which I still think is useless and wrong more than it's right) and due to interactions with City. Can kind of work as scum distancing with partner and hoping to not look bad with their flip, see nothing from this direction of interaction that rules this one out. Will need to look at RCs interaction with Radelle and Zar to work out #7.

Radelles attitude and questioning of Abaddon in Post 222 points against them being partners. Zars read on him was a weak town-read until he started prod-dodging then stated that he reminded him of another players scum game in Post 930 which isn't what scum tend to say about their partner. Think I'm near happy enough to rule out #10 but want to just look at the other-way interaction given that this one isn't as strong non-partner-wise as some of the others.

Radelle never mentions Demon / FourTroubles slot. Zars replace in post, Post 752 is very bare and empty about Demon, it has no mention of FT which is understandable to a degree and Demon had only posted about 10ish posts with none having a super amount of content so think the lack of elaboration is probably a null-point towards the partnership. Zars entire "Scum forgetting each other both ways" re: Demon in Post 916 isn't something I think he'd go hunting for to defend a partner with and if he were using that as reasoning to prevent their lynch I don't think he'd still be keeping him up in his suspect pool given the linkage he created towards him. Also remember at the top of my head that Antiheros "We don't know where Zars vote is going, guess, I actually want it answered" blatantly pointed against them being partners. All up happy enough to rule out #4.

So all up if Zar is somehow mafia which I very much doubt he can only potentially be partners with Majjify or RC.

Going to take an hour break, then will get onto the next person.

Spoiler: Partnerships

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos
6. Antihero + Rachmarie
7. RC + Zar
8. RC + Shos
9. RC + Rachmarie
10. Majjify + Zar
11. Majjify + Shos
12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

Fuck me. I realized I posted it on the wrong account just after I hit submit, tried hitting the 'X' on page load but didn't' stop it going through.

Shos interactions with other slots:

Shos post towards Declan in Post 26 points against them being partners, his turnaround of read on him in Post 64 is very natural and points against them being partners very heavily. His Post 69 where he points out Declan and Bulb aren't partners and states his intentions don't make sense as partners as he'd be locking himself into bussing and potentially clearing a townie from it. His pushing on D_G in Post 737 and his argument with me over my read on that slot in Post 745 and after that really completely rule it out. So that removes #15 from the potential pool.

Shos and Abaddons early game interactions and back and forth point against them being scum, Shos town-read on the Abaddon slot and how it's stated as 'towntowntowntown' in Post 254 point towards non-partners, scum don't state such reads on each other, never seen it happen in fact. Him pressuring Abaddon for a claim in Post 816 and the 'pressure did it's work in Post 820 also reads as non-partner interaction. The entire 'shos is scum' 'amazing content 'thanks' 'you so helpful' in Post 1116 to Post 1119 very very much rule them out as being partners completely. So that's #11 gone.

Shos push for lurker hunting makes little sense if both his partners were lurkers and his list inside Post 124 where he states he thinks two scum exist already consist of City so Four being scum as well isn't super likely, the unlikelyhood of them being partners is strengthened by his insistence on getting a catch up post from Four in Post 189, Post 434 and Post 486. The 'are you reading the game' post in Post 609 again points agianst partners and the vote in Post 689 with the 'why am i still awake' means that he's actively trying to scumhunt there, doesn't make sense for him to stay up later purely to throw a vote down on partner. The aggression and annoyance at him in Post 792 is very strongly non-partners and the casual comment to Antihero in Post 1069 is less likely to come from scum. All up very happy to remove #5 too.

Shos attack on RC about the breadcrumb debacle in Post 559, Post 572, Post 608 and Post 621 alone are enough to rule this pair out as impossible. Redcoyotes reaction towards it in return on strengthens that this pairing isn't the case. So super super super confident that #8 is not the case.

So that's everyone, Shos as scum doesn't work with a single person. That combined with strong town-read on him means he's never ever to be lynched.

Going to take another hour break then will get to the next set.

Spoiler: Partnerships

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

6. Antihero + Rachmarie
7. RC + Zar

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie
10. Majjify + Zar

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

Majjify, that's fine, there's still plenty of time left until deadline so Sunday works. Gives me enough time to get through all the interactions and then a last re-read of the thread before then too. And my hydra with Empire was made before your hydra with Thor was so we're the real gentlemen.

(Also if it's not obvious via the account slip my main is Regfan)

DeclanGiggs / Rachmaries interactions with other slots:

First of and most important, the game that I was following to get D_G meta off

Open Space is finished so get in there and compare his play from here to there, he was scum there and his play is miles away from his play here.

While Rachmaries posts are disappointing and very lackluster D_G alone makes this slot town so get in there and compare the difference in play especially the differences in his reads and how he handled pressure.

DGs attack on RC for stating the word 'town' in his post explaining being de-motivated in Post 144 points against them being scum. Voting him for it in Post 159 strengthens it making them not-partners. Re-bringing up his scum-read on RC in Post 366 and Post 405 furthers them not being partners. Strongest thing that points to them not being partners at all though is Post 463 it's at a time when the case on CE was made and he states he understands and agrees with the case but says he thinks it's not conclusive but instead of voting CE he votes RC, it makes no sense to defend a partner that's likely to be run up and instead buss another partner, no sense at all since it'd lock him into losing two partners while putting in bad light for not having been part of the CE wagon. Very happy to remove #9.

DGs questioning and posts directed towards Abaddon such as Post 43 and Post 47 point to non-partners. His "Goddamn are you stupid Abaddon. Those two posts you quoted mean the same thing. " towards Abaddon in Post 76 really does not look like a comment to a scum partner at all. His Post 143 of "If I get back to L-1 and anyone wants to ask for a claim, just let Abaddon make one up. He's been pushing this wagon, right? (So when I flip town....)" is really really not partner talk. If that's not enough though his Post 248, Post 250 and Post 255 really confirm them as non-partners. So happy to remove #12.

DG has no mention of Four but that's understandable given his lack of posting and Antihero never posted anything content based while D_G was still here so there's no mention of him either which is relatively null. Rachmaries question of 'DC what is up? This is not your usual play? for now null leaning scum.' in Post 764 points slightly against them being partners as does her asking him for reads in Post 786 but states a waffly not-sure read on him in Post 1107 can work as her giving her partner room. All up not enough to completely disconnect it will want to look at interaction the other way around.

So overall if RachMarie is somehow mafia which I highly doubt given D_Gs play it's with Antihero.

Going to take another hour break then will get to the rest.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Potential:

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
3. RC + Majjify
6. Antihero + Rachmarie
7. RC + Zar
10. Majjify + Zar

Not the case:

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

I presume Gentlemen Bastards is one of your alts Baseline? That was kinda weird lol

It's a hydra account I play in.

Just let me hammer.......

No. I only need a day or two maximum to get it all done plus I want to see Majjifys explanation first too.

[Baseline]

RCs interactions with other slots:

(Forewarning RC probably has one of the strongest scum-games on the site and I haven't fully got grips on how to read him or how he interacts with partners even though I think I'm slowly improving in it so I'll probably be reluctant to rule anything out going into it interaction-wise.)

RC has little mention of Antiheros slot, in Post 886 he states that he thinks DC is second most likely to be Citys partner to Abaddon voting Abaddon. In Post 913 he points out the lack of mentioning of CE from Antihero and votes him based on it but moves of in his next post where he states that he doesn't think City and Antihero make sense as partners because he thinks they'd have spoken about it N1 in Post 928 which doesn't make any sense at all. I point it out and he responds in Post 945 but admits it's possible he's grasping at straws which I respond to again and the conversation just dies, whole thing makes sense as them as partners with him using Zars reasoning to not have to buss. His appeal to have Greygnarl and Antihero vote with him in Post 968 is a slight point against them being partners though. The 'what happened to your pal rc' in Post 985 reads as awkward and forced interaction though given their meta history. How Rachmarie came out as a stronger scum-read than Antihero in Post 1111 makes no sense given the lack of mentioning that he thought the slot was scum lately, in fact his last mention of D_G was a town-read from memory, makes sense as him attempting to give himself more options before being forced to buss. The whole Majjify and Antihero are not partners thing in Post 1132 is a slight point against them being partners as he'd be closing of a mslynch option after Antihero was lynched if he were lynched first but his prefence to have Majjify lynched before Antihero weakens it. Overall there's nowhere near enough to rule out this pairing, a lot of it actually points towards it being the case.

RCs mentions of Abaddon comes across as a natural progression in read in Post 161 he's one of his strongest town-reads but in Post 286 his attack on Abaddons play and dislike of it especially comments such as "The more posts you make, the more I get the feeling that you come across as somewhat of a paper tiger. I think that's a first for me in Mafia. I don't know if I've ever described someone in that way before. Your aggression that left such a positive impression on me earlier in this game continues to crumble with each passing page..." don't read as comments that are directed towards a partner at all. His case on Abaddon in Post 886 is something I think he's less likely to put out against a partner that's very likely getting replaced and I think just after losing one partner he'd be a lot more hesitant on pushing on the other, Post 928 furthers this. His entire speech on how he thinks we're making a mistake letting Abaddon of the hook in Post 968 again doesn't read as partner interaction and that's also the case in Post 1080. Similarly to above his Post 1132 where he says he doesn't think Majjify and Antihero are partners locks him of from getting an Antihero mslynch if Majjify were to flip scum and be his partner and given that he's stated preference for lynching Majjify and scum needing mslynches badly at this point I don't think he'd be doing that as partners. All up content to rule out #3.

RCs strongest town-read being on Radelle in Post 161 is a point against them being partners, scum don't often strong-town-read their partner, if they town-read them at all it's normally in the middle-lower end of their spectrum, especially early game. His mention of Zar not laying down a vote in Post 781 isn't something I think scum would be saying about a partner that just replaced in. His Post 1084 of "Yeah, a Zar lynch is pretty silly and you should feel silly for suggesting it (it's almost as bad of an idea as lynching me)." doesn't come across as them being partners but admittedly that's on a guttish level. So yeah, while this isn't super super strong as non-partners as some of the other ones content to rule out #7.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Potential:

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
6. Antihero + Rachmarie
10. Majjify + Zar

Not the case:

3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

7. RC + Zar

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

On a reread, I think that a Zar/antihero couple should not be removed from the options list. I think Zar is town - don't get me wrong - I strongly support the {antihero, RC, majiffy} group as scumteam+1 - but the reasoning you gave for Zar/antihero are not satisfying for me and I couldn't find any other reason for that pair to be unlikely. so if antihero is scum, Zar should not be excluded in lylo.

I've played with Zar a lot not just at MS but also at a site called westeroes and one of the things he hates doing as scum is linking himself to partners via defending them from memory so I don't think he'd create a bunch of reasoning to attempt to defend and save someone who is just prod-dodging like Antihero, I think he'd be out the front pushing his lynch and bussing him if they were scum together so I'm content enough to rule it out. Either way I'm pretty sure he's town anyway non-interaction related so it shouldn't be an issue.

Your scumteam connection list seems very spot on and well-researched, but how much stock are you putting into Zar's point on the grey lynch yesterday? Because it is rare that a townie lynch is arrived with no scum help. As rough of a spot that puts me in, I have to acknowledge it. The trouble is, I get strong townreads from both you and shos. You and shos were on all three of the lynch wagons. Zar and I were on two. Majiffy and Antihero on one. What does that tell you? It tells me, frankly, that I'm wrong on one of my townreads between you, shos, and Zar. It tells me that Majiffy and Antihero are likely not scum together. If I'm picking partnerships, it's (shos/Zar/Baseline) + (Majiffy/Antihero).

I don't think VCA is useful at all in this situation, I can probably find about 10 games out of 100 where all the people on the lynches were town and no scum and given that at least half the people in the game have to be voting for a lynch and the person being lynched wouldn't self-vote the base odds of there being scum on the lynch is about the same thing. So really all up VCA Is quite useless and it's much better to assess based on peoples reasoning for being on-wagon, or not voting on the wagon. Long story short is that I think Majjify + Antihero can be partners but still need to do the analysis on them two.

[Baseline]

Abbaddon / Majjifys interactions with other slots:

Abbadons only mention of FourTrouble is where he was in his reads list in Post 284 and he stated that he had a null-read on him questioning where he was, given his lack of content don't think there's anything more to it. He does however never mention a single thing about or towards Demon Core, complete lack of interaction works with him not knowing how to handle his partner or take a stance on him. Majjify mentions Antihero in his idiot pool list in Post 1028 but doesn't really take a stance on him either. There's no other mention at all so it's really an empty interaction between the two slots, very much works as a scum-team so far but want to take a look at Antiheros interactions with Majjify first, probably going to take a few hours of then get to that tonight.

Abbadons reasoning behind having a town-read on Radelle is weird to say the least in Post 284, out of everything she's done her 'reckfulness' isn't at all why I think that slot is town, the reasoning works on a partner as it gives him the option to turn it around stating he did find her play to be anti-town to a degree later rather than be locked into defending a partner. Majjifys replace in reads post in Post 1022 listing Zar as town and going as far to colour him in as green as the only person alive coloured in Post 1024 isn't what I expect from partners at all so that's a point against it being the case. Repeats the town-read in Post 1028. So all up while I don't think this is the case there's not enough to rule out this partnership would say that it's far less likely though.

Since it's one of the main three I'm going to look at the other direction of RC + Majjify to make sure that it's not just RCs interaction with Majjify that makes the slots unlikely to be partners but also Majjifys interaction with RC:

Abaddons only early mention of RC is in his reads list in Post 284 where he states a null-read on him despite him posting content, his reasoning behind it is that "Yes, he's given us some content, but my previous experiences with RC have led me to believe him to be very capable, so I'm not confident enough with his relatively slight input to venture a guess." the paranoia behind RCs play is something I can very much understand so don't think there's anything to that. Abaddons defence towards RCs attack of "Those are shitty reads" in Post 288 doesn't read as scum attempting to defend themselves against a partner at all. It's a pretty solid point towards them not being partners. Majjify lists RC in his idiot pool in Post 1028 but I've seen him list him as such in other games so don't think there's anything to that otherwise he doesn't mention RC again. All up I'm happy enough to say that Abaddons interaction with RC is unlikely to be partners so #3 stays ruled out.

Spoiler: Partnerships

Likely:

1. Antihero + RC
2. Antihero + Majjify
6. Antihero + Rachmarie

Less likely:

10. Majjify + Zar

Not the case:

3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

7. RC + Zar

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

FourTrouble / Demon Core / Antiheros interactions with other slots:

FourTroubles reads post and only content post in Post 170 points against him being scum with RC, scum rarely strongly sheep a partners reads early on in D1 and him saying "I pretty much agree with RedCoyote" lessens the likelihood of them being partners. Demon Cores reads in Post 693 states metatown on RC and then turns around and says that RCs play has been very holistic and that he's playing to his scum meta in Post 800, the turn-around is really really awkward but can't work out if this is likely to come from scum to a partner or scum to a townie, interested in others thoughts on that bit actually. States he thinks the scum-team is RC and Zar in Post 941 and then votes RC in Post 979 saying "RC, you can go ahead and get on my wagon. I'm sure your buddy Zar will ditch the greygnarl counterwagon to get my lynch to go through." which is another really awkward line, again not sure what to make of it. Then says "Don't worry, you're still in good shape. After you kill buldermar tonight, you'll only have shos to get through. I'm sure you'll be able to manage to get a RachMarie/greygnarl mislynch though." to RC. Another really awkward statement, continues the vote in Post 1068. All up I'm really really unsure on this, instinct is that FTs interaction with RC points against being a pairing but I think Antiheros interaction with RC is really odd and probably works as a team. Really need others input on this one.

FourTroubles placement of D_G in his reads post in Post 170 is a weak scum-read, it's the type of placement I can see done towards a partner especially voting Furcolow afterwards. Demon Cores read on D_G in Post 693 stating " DG reads as genuinely frustrated town to me and their push on him seem like scum taking advantage of a newbie." which is not the sort of read or reasoning I think scum would use of their partner. Especially with his Post 753 stating "The stuff with DG is the cornerstone of my scumreads on radelle and abaddon because it kind of dominates the game." and I don't think scum would be using a partner to base all their reads off especially not on a player that was garning attention and looked like he might get lynched. So I'm happy to rule out #6 too.

FourTrouble stating a weaker town-read on Abaddon in Post 170 is a read that makes sense between partners. Demon Core jumping in and voting Abaddon without any reason in Post 556 works as a distancing tactic and the fact that he was absent for a whole week before doing that means he could have felt pressured by being inactive and thus decided to take a risk. His Post 693 where he states the scum-read is based of Abaddon pushing D_G makes some sense but his lack of mentioning suspecting Radelle for the same thing earlier isn't good, it comes across as a reason that was decided on after-the-fact. His Post 777 of "I love how no one disagrees with me on Abaddon but everyone still thinks I'm scum." is actually something I've seen scum say in the past about their partner; they attempt to distance / buss, have people agree with them but are still are suspected and get annoyed about it since they'd like to think their play would be pro-town regardless of them being scum. The sudden drop of the scum-read in Post 941 which some context wise is the start of D3 after we lynched City could be him getting cold feet after losing a partner combined with the fact that at the time Shos had a vote on Abaddon so there was some chance that distancing would be turned into bussing. When questioned about the dropping of scum-read he just says yes to it happening without him stating reasoning in Post 983. So all up it's actually looking very very likely to be the scum-team given that Antiheros read on Abaddon looked like initial distancing and the drop of point was when scum was lynched the before and there looked like some growing traction towards it. Would like others thoughts on this one too but I think this is the case.

Just have to do some more reading of interactions with CE and then I think I'll be ready to place a vote down but we're not lynching RC today, the only person he realistically works as partners with is Antihero and given that Antihero works as scum with Majjify as well aand that pairing is far more likely we're lynching Antihero today. He's pretty much lying down and given up, he's not attempting to scumhunt contribute or rebut at all. Especially if he thinks the case is Zar + RC he'd be very interested and willing to jump in and explain why I've incorrectly ruled it out but he hasn't at all. In fact I think typing this I've convinced myself that this is by far the best way to go today. I think the odds that I die tonight are massively high which is why I wanted to get everything I had to say out today and hopefully you guys actually do go back and take a look at all this analysis so it's not all in vain but I think Antihero -> Majjify is the way to go.

Vote: Antihero

Spoiler: Partnerships

Likely:

1. Antihero + RC ?
2. Antihero + Majjify

Less likely:

10. Majjify + Zar

Not the case:

3. RC + Majjify

4. Antihero + Zar

5. Antihero + Shos

6. Antihero + Rachmarie

7. RC + Zar

8. RC + Shos

9. RC + Rachmarie

11. Majjify + Shos

12. Majjify + Rachmarie

13. Zar + Shos

14. Zar + Rachmarie

15. Shos + Rachmarie

[Baseline]

The idiot pool is a null thing because Majjify calls RC an idiot in every game I believe, I know he did when he was town in the last game I played with the both of them. I don't think Abaddons reaction towards RC alling his reads shit at all is something that comes from partner to partner, he was attempt to change RCs mind which I think he'd be less inclined to do towards a partner and the 'paper tiger' ect. isn't town or scum and is different but it's not the sort of phrasing or comment I've ever seen scum use to a partner, if you think of an example of anyone stating something like that to a partner link me to it but otherwise I don't think that pairing is the case at all. I really think we're dealing with Antihero + Majjify or if not that then Antihero + RC.

[Baseline]

The below is typical scum distancing.

City: Who is scum and why?

Hmm, difficult. I'm going to say bulder, for his complete lack of explanation for his DG vote and Rainbow for tunneling on me and not really doing anything but attack me. Completely unsure about the third member.

I think the third member is somewhere in the pool of Declan, Grey and Demon Core.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

Speaking of Demon Core, he hasn't been doing much either.

[Baseline]

It's also her only mention of Demon Core at all.

[Baseline]

Thanks. Also when you get back take a look at the Antihero+RC thing, I want to know if that works or not, it's one that I'm unsure about.

[Baseline]

I think FT being in the middle is fairly null given that FT hadn't posted a lot to get a solid read on.

And you know I don't agree with a hammer. I want an Antihero lynch and I am actually very confident it'll get a scum-lynch but it seems that I'm the only one that feels that way which is extremely aggravating especially with his interactions with CE and CEs interactions with him very much looking like partners.

[Baseline]

Sigh. I really really really wish we lynched Antihero. If its' Antihero + Majjify and we lose I'll be coming back to this moment and blaming it all on you.

[Baseline]

Well in 30 town games I've only made it to lylo once from memory and we lost it so I'm 0% win rate as town in lylo.

[Baseline]

D_G is town and Rach doesn't fit in any scum-teams so that's irrelevant.

It's Antihero + Majjify or Antihero + RC and I think it's the first situation.

[Baseline]

Well I'm heading out so hopefully I come back to find out that I'm wrong.

But I want Antihero lynched tomorrow so if I die please don't let him of the hook again.