Open 482: Popcorn Mafia {Game Over}

[HadMatter]

"Repeat until all mafia are dead, or the mafia's numbers equal the non-gunbearing townies."

This seems wrong. If there's 2 scum and 3 town left, and one of the town has a gun, why is that a loss?

FoS: Human Destroyer

[HadMatter]

Also: other members of town, please do as I'm about to do and PM the mod a conditional target list if you're ever gone when it's your turn to shoot. It'd be dumb to lose to inactivity.

[HadMatter]

Vote: Channel

Because targeting newb.

[HadMatter]

You were second. Less joke and more bandwagony.

[HadMatter]

Nothing's wrong with a bandwagon, but I trust bandwagoners less. New players are easy targets who don't know how to defend yet. Easy for scum to pick on.

[HadMatter]

But know that you've said it, is the exercise pointless?

[HadMatter]

@Mac

I thought all deadlines were 48 hours like the first one. Which is why it would have been a good idea.

[HadMatter]

I think wagoners are more likely scum. Explanation complete.

[HadMatter]

I didn't say it was fact. I said it's what I think. It's true that I think it's true. Not saying it is true.

What I say I saw, I saw. I know my rights! I know the law!

[HadMatter]

You disagree that I think that? Or you think the opposite?

[HadMatter]

So you think a Newbie game day 1 would end in 5 posts with everyone playing towniest? Vote1 through vote5 all on the same person.

[HadMatter]

I love this game. If I don't get shot, I'm a good townie. If I get shot, I get to shoot the mafia.

[HadMatter]

Dear Inno, one thing I'm thinking is that scum want townies shot. But what scum really want is to have townies shot that are likely to shoot town. So look out for scum voting people who are fosing likely townies. And try to shoot someone who is voting for someone else you'd like to shoot. So if you're wrong it's not a total loss.

[HadMatter]

Dear Inno, one thing I'm thinking is that scum want townies shot. But what scum really want is to have townies shot that are likely to shoot town. So look out for scum voting people who are fosing likely townies. And try to shoot someone who is voting for someone else you'd like to shoot. So if you're wrong it's not a total loss.

Are you dumb?

Not at all. Are you?

[HadMatter]

What is your problem with that post CN?

[HadMatter]

I think you're talking about queen. Not me.

[HadMatter]

Sorry for inactivity. This game is hard to get into. I'll publish a would shoot to would not shoot list tonight.

[HadMatter]

I like Bumfuzzled and Limo for town. Not McQueen, but no fault of Panda.

[HadMatter]

I'm going to read through and put $PN for would not shoot because of post number PN, and !PN for would shoot because of post number PN. Also expect double $$ or !! for supertown or superscum posts. Leaving Human Destroyer and myself off for obvious reasons.

1. Bumfuzzled $64 $117
3. Mac !8
4. Cherry Nog !45 !128 !134
5. Siveure DtTrikyp !73 $138
6. ChannelDelibird $13 !15 $20 !125 !171
7. Limo

Spawnisen

!14
8. RedPanda

mcqueen

!56 !98 !105 !168
9. Juke $36 !57 !65
11. Mantisdreamz !112

I see a pretty strong Channel/mcqueen link for posts 171 and 182.
I'd shoot mcqueen to check that link, and likely only shoot Channel if mcqueen was scum. If they weren't both scum, I'd start looking at Mantis and Cheery.

I know we're looking for 3 scum, not 2, but I don't trust my reads enough to pick out all 3 scum at this time. Maybe once at least one of them gets shot.

Not sure about town reads. I'd be pretty hesitant to shoot Bum or Limo or Juke, but I'm not going to say I'd never shoot them.

Put Mac and Siv as neutral. Both need to provide a lot more content.

Note: I apparently see way more scummy ! things than townie $ things so maybe have one $ be enough to cancel 3 !s or so. Not that my analysis is anywhere near that precise, but what the hey.

[HadMatter]

I fully and completely thought it was 8/3. No wonder the average scumminess level in this thread is so high. 7/4 is going to be really tough to win.

[HadMatter]

It will be tougher than the 8/3 I thought we had. No denying that much.

[HadMatter]

And I imagine 6/5 would be easier yet? I don't k ow why you think more mafia and less town is easier

[HadMatter]

While some of that makes sense, the conclusion seems obviously false. More town and less scum gives higher odds of winning.

[HadMatter]

I can't see the confection between 171 and 182 - us it that they're both giving lists?

Channel defends most players biggest scum read. Biggest scum read leaves that player off their scum list. Maybe I'm reading too much into it. What do you think?

[HadMatter]

Maybe it was 173 or something. I'll fix that when I can.

[HadMatter]

After checking, I see that that should have been attributed to CN. Not Siv.

A side note:

Spoiler:

The odds of a town win if we shoot completely randomly are 3/7. If you're interested, here's the Python code: (The mod may want to use this to adjust the setup for future games. Note that 8/4 and 6/3 lead to perfect 0.5 chance of town win given random shooting. Though I guess there's good logic behind giving town less than half a chance for shooting randomly with increased odds if you scumhunt well)

Code: Select all

def prob_town_win(num_town,num_scum):
    if num_scum == 0:
        return 1
    elif num_town <= num_scum:
        return 0
    else:
        prob_shoot_scum = num_scum / float(num_town + num_scum - 1)
        return prob_shoot_scum*prob_town_win(num_town,num_scum-1) + (1-prob_shoot_scum)*prob_town_win(num_town-1,num_scum)

print prob_town_win(7,4)

[HadMatter]

That post seemed genuine. I'll admit that about half the posts I mentioned were gut reads. With Mac and some others there aren't any other reads to use due to lack of content.

[HadMatter]

If Channel is scum, his accidentally thinking I am the innocent is either a point in my favor or some major false buddying to try to reduce the large amount of faith that's been put in me.

@HD
In the end, you really really need to pick your own target. Remember that their a whopping FOUR (not 3 ) players all trying to get you to shoot town. One or more of them may be bussing but the underlying truth is the same. Don't shoot the consensus shot just because it's the consensus.

[HadMatter]

If you're scum, that explanation means nothing, and if you're town, why are you still worried about how I interpret something that scum!Channel said?

[HadMatter]

Because I'm a professional pedant (no, seriously).

Then why didn't you tell me I was reading too much into your link with mcqueen turned Redpanda?

[HadMatter]

MadHatter instead of HadMatter is a typo. HadMatter instead of Human Destroyer is mixing two players up.

[HadMatter]

What do you mean by "take your pick"?

[HadMatter]

I would be much more likely to shoot Cheery for the antagonistic posting if I had a gun. Just FYI to the other players. I'm not an expert at separating personal insults from scumminess. I'll work on it, but in the meantime, you've been warned.

It's a gut read Bum. It's certainly not enough for me to trust him completely. I'll be relying on new content if it's ever created. Not that single post.

[HadMatter]

Another word to the wise: Before you shoot, give us your reads. So if you die, we've got something at least.

[HadMatter]

I hate RedPanda for shooting so quickly even if he did hit two scum. I think it was stupid and rash, and he might have hit more scum in a row, if he'd have waited a day or two to see reactions. Be back in a second with more.

[HadMatter]

Ok due to RP's excellent shooting (which I applaud him for despite the rashness with which it was done) we now have a 60% chance of winning shooting randomly instead of a 42% chance. Not bad.

And we now have:

Inno - Cherry Nog

Dead scum - Siv and Mantis
Dead town - HD and RP

Bumfuzzled
Mac
ChannelDelibird
Limo
Juke
HadMatter

Cherry, unlike your predecessors, can you PLEASE provide us with reads before you go shooting your boom boom stick? It'd be really swell of you.

Let's go do a ISO for Siv and Mantis and get back to you with new reads.

[HadMatter]

channelbird said earlier that he didn't now many of the players. same thing with me. though, i have played briefly with mcqueen and juke (who i see is klick). oh, and limo.

That, "oh, and limo" looks fake to me. Like he knew Limo was here because he was his scum partner and they chatted pregame, but he wanted it to look like the first time. Point against Limo.

mcqueen looks townish to me.
not sure about Cheery Nog.

also bumfuzzled, speaking of fluff, what about your last 2 paragraphs?

Maybe casting vague suspicions at 3 townies right in a row? Maybe? Point in favor of bum.

Bumfuzzled: Pro-town. I can't tell that much on their actual alignment.
CDB: Lean slight scum for 125 - You'd potentially give the gun to someone who isn't scumhunting?
Cherry nog: Pro-town... same deal as fuzzy.
HadMatter: Lean-town.
Mac: Anti-town. Yup. He's mostly channeling newb.

Continued reads list:

Juke: Sheeping whoever said they're town for stuff.
Limo: Pro-town... I think his experience gives me a town read.

Point against Juke and Limo. He forgot to mention them like he forgot to mention Siv, his scum buddy. Maybe they're both his scumbuddies and he didn't want to list all 3 in the same post?

People I'd shoot? Cdb, then I'd let everyone else sort things out after he turns out to be scum.

Point against CBD.

My shoot to no-shoot list:

Shoot:
Limo
ChannelDelibird
Juke
Mac
Bumfuzzled

[HadMatter]

Bumfuzzled, how much have you two discussed which of you gets to shoot and who you'd shoot and your likelihood of getting to shoot?

[HadMatter]

Mac, looking back, what did Siv and mantis do that you found/find scummy.

[HadMatter]

Juke, how do you feel about Channel? Be specific.

Channel, same but about Juke.

[HadMatter]

Limo, convince me that my biggest scum read (you) is town and give me good reasons why.

[HadMatter]

Cheery/Cherry/whichever is the hydra name, do you think my trust in Bum is misplaced? Do you think that my suspiciousness of Limi is wrong. I'm currently more worried about trusting bum than FoSing limo.

[HadMatter]

I gave all reads and asked questions. I'll make a short prod dodge once daily unless people have questions for me or someone gets shot.