Open 486: Game Over


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Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:47 pm

Post by Syryana »

VOTE: Elyse

For being terrible at scumhunting last game! :)
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Post Post #66 (isolation #1) » Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:38 pm

Post by Syryana »

I'm going to treat the setup as mountainous until we get a scum flip. No point in making my brain explode considering possible PR's or WIFOMing about the draft picks until we get some information to support it with.

That said, I don't like Fuzzy's intent to sheep in #47 and #50. Last time I played with him (and from his town meta), he had more of a "go get em" attitude rather than "go with the flow".

UNVOTE:
VOTE: fuzzybutternut
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Post Post #71 (isolation #2) » Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:06 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 68, Whiskers wrote:[preedit]
Syryana, care to rescind your previous comment?

If you mean not WIFOMing about the draft numbers, then yes. It makes no sense for the scum to pick the same numbers, especially since they have daytalk. I'm not ruling out the possibility they could plan that to fool us (is the towncred worth the low chance of getting a PR, worth investigating), but it's a sensible line of reasoning.

Fuzzy, intent to sheep was a poor way to explain it. Safety does it a lot better in #49. You gave me a bad vibe.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #3) » Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:26 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 73, Whiskers wrote:
fuzzybutternut wrote:That was a misrep, as explained in 50.

@Syryana: care to rescind your earlier comment?

Yeah. Didn't even see #50. Moral: Don't post when you should be sleeping. I'll look at this tomorrow.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #4) » Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:26 pm

Post by Syryana »

EBWOP: UNVOTE:
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Post Post #85 (isolation #5) » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:50 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 84, Kmd4390 wrote:Siv, can you link the game you played with this setup? Actually, anyone with links to this setup, can you post them? That's probably the best way to test zach's theory. Also, i'd be less worried about scum intentionally picking the same number and more worried about it happening because someone wasn't paying attention to the QT or something. It's definitely a good theory, but it would be even better if it proves to be true in past games as well.

I looked into this. I don't know what game you're referring to that Siv played in but here's the game I found:

Links: Game Thread
Scum QT

It's not very conclusive either way. According to the QT, two of the three scum picked numbers for the draft before ever looking at the QT.

@Mod: Do the draft number picks work like night actions, i.e. are you allowed to change your draft number up until the deadline?


If the answer to the above question is yes, I'd say it gives zach's theory some weight. The scum QT definitely proves the scum in that game were planning to gun for specific power roles to get extra NKs and to deny town power roles like the Cop/Doctor. It certainly behooves the scum to get the highest picks on the draft and I don't think towncred from picking the same number is worth it considering the alternative is getting extra NKs and preventing a cop from entering the game.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #6) » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:08 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 95, Salamence20 wrote:How did you come up with that!?

Welcome to the world of fuzzybutternut.
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Post Post #100 (isolation #7) » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:53 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 99, fuzzybutternut wrote:and this goes on every night phase?

Once you get your role, you're stuck with it. Draft determines the order of who gets to pick power roles first and only happens once at the start of the game.
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Post Post #141 (isolation #8) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 3:19 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 137, Hoopla wrote:also, rereading the thread today, i have a town read on syryana

Why do you have a townread on me?

Remembering Sunday wrote:As for my reads, I tend not to be the best at reading Day 1 actions but for me Fuzzy isn't sitting right. His continued asking questions about the setup as if he doesn't know what he's doing, it's not hard to understand if you read it through once or twice. Just seems he's trying a little too hard to make us think he doesn't know whats up and a very early VT claim.

You may be on to something here. I was originally inclined to dismiss this, since I've played with Fuzzy before and he has a strong tendency towards VI behavior (see Open 481) but I don't think he's actually as dense as he's claiming to be here. The draft is easy to figure out from the wiki page and Edosurist's posts. Either he's covering as RS suggests or he's a VI. Certainly worth keeping an eye on in either case.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #9) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:22 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 147, Bojo wrote:The whole discussion about numbers and such should be stopped until we get a flip, otherwise we are just WIFOMing ourselves to death.

I'd like to hear from the silent alex as he/she hasnt posted all game.

This.

I also agree Safety's reaction was bad, but I'm not comfortable voting him right now. I don't like wagoning people who aren't here to defend themselves.
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Post Post #151 (isolation #10) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:20 pm

Post by Syryana »

Whiskers wrote:This is so bad. No. Players understanding the setup is kind of important, preferably as soon as possible, and certainly before lynching.
If you're not willing to discuss Possible Scenarios for the setup, that's understandable, though not acceptable. If you're not willing to discuss
how
the setup works, then you should at least have the decency to say, "fuzzybutternut-- why donm't you send a PM to Eidolon asking him to explain to you how this all works?"

The way I read it (and what I was agreeing to) was that the discussion of alignment based off the draft was pointless. I in no way intended to agree to not discuss the setup or possible scenarios, or to not help people to understand how the setup works. I do think that trying to intuit alignment from the draft is WIFOM and a waste of time before we get flips. The only assumption I would
consider
making w.r.t. the draft is that it's unlikely multiple scum picked the same number.
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Post Post #159 (isolation #11) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:29 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 153, Whiskers wrote:You have, a couple of times now, tried to stifle discussion of the setup-- how it works, not anything due to scumhunting, saying it's WIFOM. When fuzzybutternut is apparently struggling to understand the game mechanics, how is that WIFOM? Makes me think you're giving a stock answer to look townie, not to mention that you don't change the topic of discussion to something better.

I stated I intend to treat the setup as mountainous until information arrives. I also stated twice that discussion of alignment w.r.t. the draft is WIFOM, because it is. Any person could have picked any number on that list for any number of reasons. I will use myself as an example. I could have picked 3 because my scumpartners Elyse and Salamence picked 1 and 2, respectively. Or I could have picked 3 because it's my lucky number. I could make a similar case for everyone on that list. If you want to continue to insist that alignment speculation on that list is fruitful, it's your right to be wrong.

In post 153, Whiskers wrote:Luckily, nobody has done this. Not one single person in the thread. So what are you afraid of? Who are you speaking out against? No player-- actually, wait, I remember now. Hoopla. Are you cautioning Hoopla against this? By this time, you an your posse were already denouncing "setup speculation" for a while.

I approve of what Hoopla was doing. She wasn't speculating on alignment based on draft picks; she was asking people (specifically RS) why they picked what they picked. That is a good thing because it makes people talk about their motivations. I'm more interested in heading off silly arguments about draft speculation.

Setup speculation (and by this I mean role speculation) is similarly useless at this point and for town can lead into dangerous areas. For example, VTs know that someone above them in the draft got the role they bid for. If they tell everyone in the thread about it (as fuzzy was close to doing) then the town is no closer to determining alignments, but the scum know that people on the list lower than that person are irrelevant to kill in the event it's not a scum that owns the role.

Zach's theory is original and excellent. However, even that is ultimately WIFOM and I'm not about to risk giving away whatever power roles we have for some WIFOM theories.

In post 153, Whiskers wrote:Your claims on this ground are terrible and false, but even if they weren't, it bothers me that no players here has the smarts to realize that if this player,
perhaps the only player to notice it
(because I sure didn't), holds his tongue until Day 3, when it is apparently finally acceptable to start discussing game-related topics, and
dies
at some point along the way (several opportunities to by daykilled, nightkilled, or lynched), then the horrible, dreaded setup speculation, which could contain useful information (such as, "it's unlikely that mafia would choose the same number",) is gone.
Why postpone? That's just fucking stupid. If it's not useful until Day 3, then fine, we may not use it until Day 3. But why is it such a sinful thing to share all the secrets we might think we have, while we can all discuss them-- and better yet
while there is not another damn thing going on in the game?

The only thing terrible here is your attempt to misrep me into the ground. Yeah, if zach kept his mouth shut and died on Day 2, we wouldn't have his theory. However, if by Day 3 we couldn't successfully scumhunt
without
his theory (or if someone else hadn't come up with it by then), then we suck. We certainly aren't going anywhere if we start speculating about who picked what number why or what power role did X person pick. You want to blame me for heading off discussions that could start giving scum information in trade for some theories we can't prove, go right ahead.

*breath*

fuzzybutternut wrote:I say it's town because of the anger that's behind it.

Go meta Whiskers, then come back and update your opinion. You'll probably agree with Johnny.

VOTE: JohnnyFarrar
I'm going with Johnny for now. He's the closest thing to a scum read I've got right now. I didn't like his #41 or his #113. I liked #113 a hell of a lot less than #41, because of this line:

In post 113, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I'm just not sharp enough to have a good choice right now.

I don't like it when people say things like this. It's fine not to know who to vote for, but giving a reason like "I'm not sharp enough" is self-deprecating and reads to me like scum pretending to be clueless town. Originally I didn't think much of #41 (Sala's argument was stretching it IMO) but it makes more sense when combined with #113.

@Mod, what is up with that VC? It's got like, two copies of everyone in it.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #12) » Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:43 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 160, fuzzybutternut wrote:Not too sure scum would make themselves that obvious, though.

You're probably right. It's the biggest scumtell I've got at the moment, not counting SafetyDance's reaction to Hoopla's vote. But I'm not voting for SD right now because I refuse to vote for V/LA people on principle.
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Post Post #194 (isolation #13) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:38 am

Post by Syryana »

<3 you guys
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Post Post #201 (isolation #14) » Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:29 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 196, Whiskers wrote:That's cool, now you've even had a post to respond to me-- and didn't.
Ignore me, Syryana.

I'll get to you later. I don't have time at the moment.
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Post Post #220 (isolation #15) » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:24 am

Post by Syryana »

*cracks knuckles* Okay, let's do this. First, response to Whiskers:

In post 180, Whiskers wrote:If this is the case, what you were so worried about-- alignment speculation based on Draft Numbers-- hasn't happened, not at all, so does that mean you're just posting filler? You're like the politician who wrote the bill that protected people from being fired from their jobs for owning a gun? You're solving a problem that doesn't exist, in hopes it will make you look good?
You're allright with zach's theory... so what the hell are you speaking out against? Where did anybody "start speculating about who picked what number why or what power role did person X pick"? Only Hoopla, unless you're counting fuzzybutternut, who (assuming town) did it because he thought
roles were tied to alignments
and that
he knew what role I had
. Since both were true, it ended up being a claim, but had he been correct, he could have nailed scum. Or something.

I was not posting filler, nor was I attempting to stifle discussion. I was attempting to prevent the discussion from heading in pointless (draft WIFOM, role discussion) or dangerous(hey guys I didn't get X, so
Whiskers
people above me got X) directions. Discuss the setup all you like, just don't waste time with WIFOM or give the scum information. I feel I've made my point and I'm no longer worried about it. Besides, now we have wagons to analyze!

In post 180, Whiskers wrote:Unfortunately, this. Shit, Syryana, how did you pick up my meta so quickly? We didn't even play a whole Day-phase together.

I read your meta in Micro 134. I replaced in N1 after your lynch and your playstyle made me curious. I don't remember all of what I came up with then, but I do know that w.r.t. your alignment, the rage is a null.

Wagons! We have 2 of them: mine, SafetyDance. I'll start with mine.
People on wagons:
Syryana wagon:
  • Whiskers
  • Kmd4390
  • Elyse
  • JohnnyFarrar

Whiskers' vote I'm cool with. I'd be more suspicious if she hadn't voted me to be honest, this whole argument about the setup discussion is scummy from her perspective, given the assumption that I'm posting filler to make myself look town. However, what is concerning is that the other three people on the wagon: KM, Elyse, JF, have yet to provide a reason why they are on the wagon in the first place.
Kmd votes me, provides no reasoning for it, then makes an arbitrary comment about a turbolynch in #195 and hasn't been seen since.
Elyse is even murkier; she voted me in RVS, lurked, popped out to make a comment on Safety's reaction looking bad(#143), lurked some more, said vote stays(#198), then talked for a moment about Safety's reaction and admonished SDT for his reasoning on why I'm town. Nowhere do we have a reason for keeping the vote on me.
Then we come to good ol' Johnny. He was my earliest null-scum, see #159 for why. Then we have this jewel:

In post 197, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Whiskers makes a convincing argument.

VOTE: Syryana

Baaaa. Dare I ask, what convincing argument? Nowhere do I see any convincing argument. Essentially all Whiskers has done w.r.t. me is yell at me for "posting filler" and "trying to stifle discussion". Since I already dealt with both of those points in #151 and #159 (and now this post as well), your weak reasoning for sheeping has evaporated. Pretty happy with my vote on you at the moment. Next bandwagon!

SafetyDance wagon:
  • SDT
  • Salamence
  • zachattack
  • Remembering Sunday

Now, as I understand it this wagon largely stems from Safety's overreaction to Hoopla's vote in #140. I haven't had the opportunity to go meta the guy to see if he overreacts all the time; my personal read on him will have to wait until after I go do that later. This wagon's a bit better than mine; at least some of the players on this wagon are providing some form of reason for why they're voting the guy. Unfortunately Salamence and zachattack have fallen prey to the "vote with no reasoning provided" bug that seems to be infecting most of the playerlist. Salamence at least made a token comment regarding SD's overreaction, but we're really suffering from the Easter malaise going on here.

The case on him from RS is interesting (#216); it boils down to "I like SDT better, but probably won't get him lynched today, so SD." Could you elaborate on why you don't think an SDT wagon would take off and why you'd rather an SDT wagon over an SD wagon? I'm assuming it's something to do with SDT's flaky townread on me, but I'd like a rundown of your thoughts.

@SDT, your reasoning on why I'm town is terrible. I was making a point as to why trying to intuit alignment based purely off of draft numbers is WIFOM, then you take half my statement out of context and parade it around as a towntell (which is itself WIFOM). I just don't get how you'd think that was a towntell, especially considering it was part of a purely theoretical example in the first place. The only way you'd view it as a townslip was if you took it out of context and disregarded the fact that I'm using it as half of an example.

@Hoopla, same question Whiskers posed: Why swap to jmo? Also, why did/do you have a townread on me in #137? I know it's outdated, but you never answered me before, so...

TLDR:
FoS: SDT and all those people that keep lurking/not providing reasons to vote.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #16) » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:37 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 221, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Someone please tell me where the scum motivation for doing this is, though? Especially syryana.

What motivation would a scum have for white knighting a townie? Let's see, towncred, towncred, towncred. Oh, and towncred. You white knight me with a weak ass case, I get lynched anyways, I flip town, you get points for being right about me being town. Whiskers puts it pretty well in #223. Questions?

In post 224, Whiskers wrote:Safety's big overreaction wasn't-- if it was, then you'll have a field day with Syryana's 220.

What are you trying to say here?

In post 225, JohnnyFarrar wrote:@Syry, my sarcasm is hard to detect in text form. I'm just sheeping. (because I have nothing better to do without a thorough reread, which I don't have time for.)

P-edit: Really I'm just rubbish d1...

In post 226, Whiskers wrote:So then, I
don't
make a convincing argument? And you're voting with me becaaaauuuse?

Heeeeeeeeeeeeere's
Johnny! Couldn't have put it better myself, Whiskers.

In post 232, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Consider this a blatant attempt to lurk off the wagon.

What?

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp
I'm happy with SDT or Johnny. They're both scum.
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Post Post #238 (isolation #17) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:14 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 236, Edosurist wrote:Syryana is V/LA until April 7.

Pretty sure you mean Salamence, here.

Fixed.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #18) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:25 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 239, Remembering Sunday wrote:Well that's just typical really isn't it? Take my vote away from SDT because despite me leaving it there since the start no wagon has formed and the next thing you know he has 2 votes.

And yet you don't put your vote back on him...

In post 216, Remembering Sunday wrote:
Right, having had a good read through finally I thought my vote was likely to change, the two posts above have lead me to believe it's actually in the right place, however
I don't think a SDT wagon is going to take off, if it does I'll get back on it
. For now I'm going to change to

VOTE: SafetyDance
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Post Post #243 (isolation #19) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:39 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 242, Remembering Sunday wrote:Should have refreshed before I posted. Hopefully that addresses your question though Sy.

More or less.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #20) » Thu Apr 04, 2013 6:05 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 244, Elyse wrote:From the last game I played with him, Syryana is really good under pressure and he's a really great talker.

Stop it, you're gonna make me blush :oops:

In post 244, Elyse wrote:And I voted for you, Syry, in RVS as a joke, but kept it on due to Whiskers' case. But I might change my vote to SafetyDance.

This is the second time someone has referred to "the Whiskers case". I'd love to actually find out what that case explicitly is one of these days.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #21) » Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:19 pm

Post by Syryana »

jmo16mla wrote:Caught up! Post coming(:

Post coming this week?

More votes on Siv, please. His reaction to being voted is worse than SD's was, IMO.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #22) » Fri Apr 05, 2013 2:25 pm

Post by Syryana »

Haven't seen Johnny-boy in a while either.
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Post Post #259 (isolation #23) » Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:19 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 258, Whiskers wrote:Meow.


Yep, I'm doing that. Consider it my freebie.

??????
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Post Post #266 (isolation #24) » Sat Apr 06, 2013 6:14 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 265, Elyse wrote:Not feeling this anymore.

SafetyDance is seeming more town to me too. Siv on the other hand...

This isn't cagey at all...
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Post Post #276 (isolation #25) » Sun Apr 07, 2013 7:03 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 275, Salamence20 wrote:Im back, catchup tonight, any questions?

Vote for SDT? Or even Johnny.
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Post Post #279 (isolation #26) » Sun Apr 07, 2013 9:06 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 278, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:2 daysish left. I'm a main wagon. Do I claim?

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Post Post #299 (isolation #27) » Sun Apr 07, 2013 10:57 am

Post by Syryana »

While HD makes decent points about Bojo/jmo/successor, I'm not very happy with his summary of events. Need a lot more explanations of his reads.

Whiskers asks good questions in #296 and I am particularly interested in HD's read on me as town. I don't feel like my actions thus far have warranted a "towntowntown" reading and I want to hear why HD finds me so obvtown.

I'd also like to know why Johnny isn't on HD's list of "good lynches", particularly when he calls Johnny "opportunistic".
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Post Post #301 (isolation #28) » Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:03 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 299, Syryana wrote:I'm not very happy with his
lack of justification for his reads
.

FTFY.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #29) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:24 am

Post by Syryana »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Demon

I wasn't really sure about this slot until Demon came in and rained fire and bullshit everywhere. About the only thing he's done that I didn't hate was his vote on Johnny. Which means if this guy flips scum, Johnny is probably town.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #30) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:02 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 340, Whiskers wrote:(and imo this possible-wagonstalling is the scummiest thing you've done this game, so you're not really a scumread)

What?
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Post Post #361 (isolation #31) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:52 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 351, Human Destroyer wrote:
In post 299, Syryana wrote:Whiskers asks good questions in #296 and I am particularly interested in HD's read on me as town. I don't feel like my actions thus far have warranted a "towntowntown" reading and I want to hear why HD finds me so obvtown.


I don't answer people that ask why they're being called town.

Why not? (Mildly curious)

In post 351, Human Destroyer wrote:
In post 299, Syryana wrote:I'd also like to know why Johnny isn't on HD's list of "good lynches", particularly when he calls Johnny "opportunistic".


You could say the same about Salamence and Remembering Sunday. Why pick out Johnny in particular?

I picked out Johnny because you made more remarks about him than the others. RS got a token "that vote was awkward" point and Salamence (as of #284) was a "I think he's scum, but I'll have to mull it over". Johnny on the other hand, warranted several mentions up to that point. That's why I asked about Johnny instead of the other two as HD seemed to point him out more over the course of his stream of consciousness.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #32) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:05 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 366, fuzzybutternut wrote:I still don't understand the setup. :shifty:

Doesn't matter. Go ISO people and get some scumreads.

Pedit: Very useful, Johnny.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #33) » Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:49 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 391, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Huh. Well that happened. I'm hoping Demon's just lying because salt.

What?
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Post Post #397 (isolation #34) » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:43 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 396, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Well THAT
sucks
was just FUCKING AWESOME.

FTFY.

VOTE: JohnnyFarrar

Go read my Day 1 posts to figure out why I'm voting him.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #35) » Wed Apr 10, 2013 6:58 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 396, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Well THAT sucks.

I fail to see how 10v1 in any way shape or form justifies the word "sucks". Therefore you get precedence over SDT until he comes back and makes scum out of himself again.

While we're waiting on that, why don't you give us a list of reads, Johnny? It's not Day 1 anymore, so you should have some new thoughts, right?
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Post Post #419 (isolation #36) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 6:48 am

Post by Syryana »

List of things of interest from my perspective...

VCA:
Edosurist wrote:
VC 1.9


Siveure DtTrikyp (1)
: Elyse
JohnnyFarrar (1)
: Demon
Demon (8)
: Hoopla, Human Destroyer, Siveure DtTrikyp, Whiskers, Kmd4390, Syryana, SafetyDance, Salamence20
SafetyDance (1)
: Remembering Sunday
Hoopla (1)
: fuzzybutternut
Syryana (1)
: JohnnyFarrar
Not voting
: zachattack

Clearly the Demon wagon had scum on it (/glares at Salamence), since Safety bussed his buddy. However, I doubt that both scum were on the wagon. Gut feeling, I just kinda doubt both scum bussed Demon given the speed with which Demon got lynched. If both scum
are
on the wagon, I feel like they're near the end (SD was, Salamence might be a scumhammer). It is also interesting to note that RS's vote remained on SD, one of the other now-known scum.

Now that two of three scum are dead, we can use Zach's theory to make some interesting inferences. Let's examine the draft:
In post 4, Edosurist wrote:The order will be as follows:

Draft OrderNameNumber Selected
1Syryana3
2Siveure DtTrikyp9
3SafetyDance10
4Remembering Sunday22
5Salamence2
6Hoopla2
7fuzzybutternut12
8Whiskers12
9Bojo1
10Elyse1
11Kmd43901
12zackattack4
13JohnnyFarrar4
14Alexcellent4



We know Bojo was scum, he picked 1. We know SD was scum, he picked 9. After applying Zach's theory (since I think we confirmed scum can talk pregame?) we can therefore safely assume that KMD and Elyse are town.

So, between VCA and Zach's theory we can narrow down the list of suspects:

fuzzybutternut
I just don't think he's scum, all that setup derp
Siveure DtTrikyp
VCA
Elyse
zach's theory
Human Destroyer
VCA
JohnnyFarrar -> VCA indicates possible scum, opportunistic Day 1, can't read VCs
Remembering Sunday -> VCA indicates possible scum
Demon
dead scum
SafetyDance
dead scum
zachattack -> probably town due to theory, but didn't pass VCA test, so not struck out
Kmd4390
zach's theory
Hoopla
dead town
Whiskers
VCA/softclaiming
Salamence20 -> leaving in due to possible scumhammer
Syryana
obvtown

So, remaining suspects:
Johnny, RS, Salamence, Zach.

JohnnyFarrar wrote:3. I'll give you a list of reads if YOU LINK ME TO YOUR BEST SCUM GAME

You know, in the amount of time you've been asking for links to my scum game you could easily have gone and found it yourself. I've only been scum in one game. Open 481
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Post Post #421 (isolation #37) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:05 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 420, Whiskers wrote:That's interesting, what kind of VCA are you doing, "He voted for scum"?

I might revise that list you made, when I get back to a computer.

It was a quick and dirty analysis of the final vote count of the day, the major assumption being "I doubt both scum bussed Demon." I'll go back and compare to older VCs if I have time and someone else doesn't beat me to it.
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Post Post #423 (isolation #38) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:21 am

Post by Syryana »

EBWOP: SD had a 10, not a 9.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:25 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 422, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Slightly confident in RS, Fuzzy and Whiskers town because we already had a high number.

Dafuq? People are town because they had high numbers? How does this make any sense?

In post 422, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:Anyway, that leaves johnny. And syry if we take syry's vca.

If you take my VCA, you would put me as town, since the major assumption of my VCA was explicitly stated as "I don't think it likely both scum were on the wagon." You're also ignoring like half the rest of the playerlist.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #40) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:34 am

Post by Syryana »

Blame the mods for continually making me town.
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Post Post #433 (isolation #41) » Thu Apr 11, 2013 8:21 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 431, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:
In post 424, Syryana wrote:Dafuq? People are town because they had high numbers? How does this make any sense?


It's basically zach's theory applied more broadly to categories of numbers. We had a 10, I doubt we have another high number. Maybe RS, but w/e.
This doesn't apply to me because I know enough to potentially mess around with it.

Scum instinctively pick stuff that's looks kinda random, and that means not too many low/high numbers. They could have easily gone for any of 2-4 to go with the 1, though.

That's a load of horsefeathers. You doubt they picked 10 and 22 because they're high? Why wouldn't they pick a number higher than 10? Given the likelihood of folks picking the same low number, a high number would guarantee that person got to pick before all the low duplicates. Not to mention scum would pick numbers with the intent of getting PRs, not to look random so as to foil draft analysis. Plus you admit here you know enough about the draft to mess with it, thus invalidating your read on yourself. You're so f-ing scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SDT

Pedit: I'll deal with that list later.
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Post Post #482 (isolation #42) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 8:25 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 477, Whiskers wrote:Because [Really Big Softclaim]

Feel free to keep protecting me, though.

So you don't want Sala lynched due to a softclaim, eh?

Let's assume you're not lying about this claim. Why did you, at eight in the draft order, manage to pick up that role? I can think of only one reason: Safety was the only mafia member above you in the draft. We know SD was a roleblocker, hence he didn't pick that role of yours. If a second mobster were above you in the draft, they would have assuredly picked your role so the town wouldn't have it. That means that
SD was the only mafia above you in the draft.


Therefore, by application of this reasoning and zach's theory, we're down to
three
possible targets: Human Destroyer, Johnny, and zach. Who do I think is the scummiest of the three?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JohnnyFarrar
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Post Post #484 (isolation #43) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 8:34 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 483, Whiskers wrote:
That's great, if I have the role you think I do.

There's really only one you could have, if you're certain Salamence isn't scum.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #44) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:56 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 495, Remembering Sunday wrote:
You don't think it's at all possible he's fully aware of the setup and is faking his clueless-ness?

It's possible. I don't think Fuzzy's capable of that level of play, though. Besides, it's 10v1 right now. We could mislynch four times and still win the game at this point. If it still bugs us after we get rid of, say, Johnny and/or SDT, we can kill derpy later.

Pedit: I think Elyse is scummy town right now, I just don't see her and Bojo picking the same numbers.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #45) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 10:37 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 506, Human Destroyer wrote:*shrug* I'd be okay with claiming.

Me too, actually.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #46) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 10:48 am

Post by Syryana »

Whiskers wrote:Now, as I said, I'm interested in everybody claiming. I think we should, either toDay or toMorrow, start forcing claims.

Siv: What do you think of claiming right now?

If we do claim today, I think it needs to go from high to low:
Human Destroyer
goes first, then
JohnnyFarrar
, then:
zachattack, Kmd, Elyse, fuzzybutternut, Remembering Sunday, Siveure DtTrikyp,
and
lastly
Syryanna
. This increases the chance of fakeclaims from vanillascum, or the chance that PR-scum will get caught having to counter-claim.

Whiskers (me) and Salamence are exempts from the claim because.

This is a great idea.

Whiskers wrote:
In post 509, Siveure DtTrikyp wrote:I'm not claiming.

I think I know what sala's PR and action were, though.

Alright, can you tell me why?

Also this.

Whiskers, can you detail how you came up with that splendid mess in #508?
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Post Post #514 (isolation #47) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 10:53 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 513, Whiskers wrote:red is flipped scum. green is flipped town. blue is no-lynch (if only temporarily), aka statistical-townreads.
underlining indicates a powerrole (some guesswork here). no underlining indicates vanilla.

Just to make sure I'm following you here, you wrote off Elyse and Kmd due to ZachTheory and Sala due to [softclaim] yes?
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Post Post #515 (isolation #48) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 10:55 am

Post by Syryana »

@Mod: Is the mafia NK optional or required?
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Post Post #521 (isolation #49) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:21 am

Post by Syryana »

Next would be Johnny.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #50) » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:51 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 535, Whiskers wrote:I'll claim at the bottom, is that enough? And considering if all goes the way you will believe, my role and Salamence's role will be leftover at the end.

I don't have an issue with the massclaim, but I'd prefer it if you and Salamence claimed in order just like everyone else.

I don't see the purpose in massclaiming if we don't give out specific roles. Kinda defeats the point of recognizing fakeclaims if we don't have specific roles to work with.
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Post Post #560 (isolation #51) » Sat Apr 13, 2013 10:04 am

Post by Syryana »

Massclaim today, massclaim tomorrow, who cares. It's 10v1 ffs. Stop arguing about this nonsense. Zach has a good point about power roles being allowed to do their own thing, Whiskers has a good point that we do need to massclaim soon.

Just lynch Johnny or SDT. Prefer not to lynch Elyse because I doubt two scum picked "1".
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Post Post #587 (isolation #52) » Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:59 am

Post by Syryana »

VOTE: Remembering Sunday

Cause why not.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #53) » Sun Apr 14, 2013 10:10 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 590, Human Destroyer wrote:As long as this core body of townies is retained, we have basically no chance of losing.

Unless you're wrong, in which case we've already lost.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #54) » Sun Apr 14, 2013 11:51 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 603, fuzzybutternut wrote:He chose 22. There is NO reason why he wouldn't get the role he chose, unless I'm still clueless about this setup-shit.

:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:
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Post Post #621 (isolation #55) » Sun Apr 14, 2013 11:24 pm

Post by Syryana »

Can we kill someone already?
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Post Post #644 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:00 am

Post by Syryana »

The amount of babble in this thread is getting atrocious.

More votes on Remembering Sunday.
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Post Post #649 (isolation #57) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 11:22 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 645, JohnnyFarrar wrote:
In post 644, Syryana wrote:The amount of babble in this thread is getting atrocious.

More votes on Remembering Sunday.


Say who you're targeting tonight. If you don't have a role that targets, make up a target.

I'll consider making up a target once we actually get close to lynching someone.

Pedit: It
is
Johnny, zach, but nobody wants to vote for him today for whatever reason.
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Post Post #651 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 11:38 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 650, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Syr, you don't seem to read my posts at all. If you're the last scum I'm gonna be disappointed.

You won't be disappointed then. Besides, I haven't seen you say anything relevant in a while, so I stopped reading your posts.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #59) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:23 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 652, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Oh, you're a dick. I get it.

So you've given up on getting any more reads today? What do you think of RS? What about Kmd?

Yep. If you want my opinion on RS, look at where my vote is. Kmd can go die in a fire, but I doubt he's scum because ZachTheory.

Salamence20 wrote:Yeah, fuck you syr.

<3 you too Sally.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #60) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:35 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 656, Kmd4390 wrote:Syrana, I appreciate the kind words.

You'd probably say something similar if I'd outed you as a possible jailkeeper.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #61) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:17 pm

Post by Syryana »

In post 661, JohnnyFarrar wrote:VOTE: RS

Syry, if you don't name your target before someone gets lynched I'll pop a blood vessel.

Is that a promise? <3
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Post Post #666 (isolation #62) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 4:58 pm

Post by Syryana »

Hypothetical target: Fuzzybutternut.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #63) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:31 pm

Post by Syryana »

Finally.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #64) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 8:12 pm

Post by Syryana »

I gave serious consideration to picking Fruit Vendor/Neighborizer. I figured I was sure to die N1, being town and top of the draft XD
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Post Post #685 (isolation #65) » Mon Apr 15, 2013 11:51 pm

Post by Syryana »

I don't actually remember. Seemed like a good idea at the time though.

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