Open 483 - Switch (Game Over)

[Stringer Bell]

VOTE: CrazedPorcupine

because he's crazy, ya know?

[Stringer Bell]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kashoodles for not being able to figure out the tags. Nervous scum is nervous.

[Stringer Bell]

Syr a question. Why would you self vote?

I self voted because I didn't know what else to do. I'm rather at a loss as to how to defend myself at this point, so I figured what the hell, let's make it less painful.

You don't know anything else to do? No defense, no look through your wagon or elsewhere to see what might stand out as a scum bandwagoning? Self voting should never be an option for any townsperson.

[Stringer Bell]

Vote anybody or no one, but not yourself (unless you are scum). No one likes a defeatist (unless you are scum)

UNVOTE:
Very well. In an attempt to be somewhat useful, I will go back and see what I can analyze out of what's happened thus far.

Malakitten's argument that I'm town because "the first wagon usually catches town" is extremely odd. He seems to be arguing that he thinks I'm town because a)the wagon built up extremely fast and b)usually the first wagon is on a townie. Why would you suggest this? The wagon built up extremely fast for a good reason; I've been acting extraordinarily scummily. Why waste time when you're sure you've caught one? The second point is just as troubling. The first lynch is usually a townie because of simple probability. Calling me town because wagons in a percentage of other games pick up a townie on the first haul is pretty ludicrous, especially given the reasons this one piled up so fast. Do you have an actual reason you think I'm town, or are you just trying to get towncred when I flip town?

I don't see anything that sticks out on the wagon. Kashoodles started it, Serrapaladin made a pretty good case, Declan and Guille followed. Serrapaladin's point about my re-RVS pinning both myself and Crazed as scum was stretching it. Declan's sudden flip in #38 on the idea that both I and Crazed were scum was odd. I could understand him flipping on me and voting me after #35, but I saw no reason for him to buy into serra's idea about the scumpartners.

I appreciate the analysis. Better to post like this rather than to self-vote, no matter what the reason is. There's no reason to want to kill yourself off if you're town; that's why people construe the self-vote as scummy.

When you say you've been acting extraordinarily scummy, I'm not sure I agree with you. You've made some scummy moves, but I don't see anything extraordinary about it. Extraordinarily scummy would be way more obvious than that and you wouldn't even have an opportunity to defend yourself. The fact that the wagon built so quickly isn't the problem, it's the fact that it built so quickly on such little substance, at least in my mind. Wagons that get to L-2 that quickly should have a better foundation, especially with over 13 days left on Day 1. If you're town, a couple of scum could have come in and parrot a reason or two from others and all of a sudden we have a third townie dead, plus the deaths of N1, and we're no better off than when we started, really.

[Stringer Bell]

Stringer

: What's your opinion of Kashoodles? And who do you want lynched?

I put a semi-RVS vote on kashoodles when he couldn't figure out the tagging system. Not being able to figure out the tags is not really a scum-tell, but it showed nervousness with the vote change, in my mind. An extreme stretch, one that I would not have made at any point later in the game, but we were just on the cusp of exiting RVS and there wasn't much to go off of.
I like his #22, where he questions serra's wordless vote change, that shows an observant townsperson ready to call people out.
I like his #32, where he continues to pressure Syryana to get him to really defend himself.
He backs off his Syryana vote in #43, which might normally seem like backtracking on the pressure he just put on, when Syryana still hadn't come up with an adequate defense, but he didn't want the wagon to get too heavy before Syryana had a chance at all to defend.

These early posts make me lean town on him. He gets in an argument with Malakittens over reactions/nonreactions to their posts, which doesn't really play into my read of him.

UNVOTE:

Crazed is not a good lynch to me, because what information does it give us? We can't really glean anything from his two posts. His #64 is just plain lazy..Voting someone for a quote pyramid when we've already had content worth commenting on? Not to mention that the quote pyramid you're referencing was two pages before your post and really has very little impact on the current state of the game. I don't like it, this sort of voting with no reasoning is not pro-town, but I'm not sure it's anti-town either. It's definitely lazy, though, and we'll need much more from him to harden our reads.

I hate declan's #40, it screams anti-town to me. Asking whether or not it was the hammer when it was TWO votes off...seems like he was a little too excited at the prospect of the early, quick lynch.
unseencamo's #86 isn't good either. Pretty much parrots questions that Syryana answered in his #60.

Back to declan, I don't like his #78. Does he agree with JKM, or does he just see the argument but doesn't agree with it?
I also disagree with his assessment of CrazedPorcupine's first post, just because he parrots Syryana's reasoning during RVS doesn't scream scum at me. It's not particularly imaginative RVS voting, but it's really not that big of a deal. I don't think declan's continued pressure on CrazedPorc is warranted for something that minor.

BrightEyedFish, what changed for you between #93 and #97? We still have no information about Crazed and a lynch on him really doesn't do us any good, yet you changed your mind to vote for him? I thought you were spot on questioning Mala's and Declan's reasoning for their votes on Crazed, but then you completely backtracked and now you're voting for him.
P-edit: Dammit serra.

[Stringer Bell]

Crazed is not a good lynch to me, because what information does it give us?

he is so scummy for buddying up o syrana. Information lynches are all fine and good but lynching scum is better.

I guess I just don't see Crazed as super-scummy like you do. He's only made two posts and neither have been good, but that doesn't mean we should just lynch him up and hope for the best. The fact that you're pushing him so hard when the evidence is just not there makes you look more scummy than he does.

VOTE: Superdeclan

[Stringer Bell]

now, 3rd I've not posted very much as this is my first game with switches in it, (I've played a game with roleblocker before so I'm kinda used to the idea of switches).

Now, from what I've seen so far, Declan seems to have it out for me and has seemingly tried to keep the bandwagon on me going. I have a feeling he's trying to speed lynch to try and get rid of me, whether he's mafia trying to get rid of a townie, or just a very suspicious townie trying to see if I'm mafia is tough to tell

However, from what I've gathered so far, he's the most suspicious person I can find at the moment

VOTE: Declan

The switches mean NOTHING to you if you're not in control of them, and only scum and the SK have any control over the switches. To the rest of us, we're just playing a normal game. Even if you're a town PR, you have no control over the switches and therefore have no reason to worry about them. If you're so worried about how the switches work, you're either scum or the SK.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: CrazedPorcupine

[Stringer Bell]

Wiat, People are assuming I'm mafia because of what I said about switches?

There are 3 roles that can be blocked by the Mafia! Vig, Doctor and Cop,
SK cannot be switched by the Mafia

so therefore there are 6 roles that have to deal with switches and with 12 people left, thats 50% of the group meaning that the switches are very relevant to deciding how those people will make their night actions. Even if the switch may not be relevant to me, It's still helpful to know that those are key things in this particular game as it gives better insight to how the mafia may act during this night and how the Town power roles will act as well.

If you're the vig, doc, or cop, how does the switch affect you? You submit your action like any other game, then you get back the result, which can be changed based on what the mafia or the SK does with the switches. But if you're the vig, doc, cop, or VT you have no control of the switches and therefore have no reason to worry about them. The switches change nothing in terms of the strategy for these roles, therefore the only people who need to worry about them are the mafia and the SK. If you're so worried about them, that means you're one of those four people.

[Stringer Bell]

Okay Declan, here are a few responses to what you and others have said

here's the thing, since the Doc, Cop, and Vig KNOW they can be switched off, they can basically decide whether or not they'll even get their night action and act accordingly. While they can just submit their action and wait for their result, the can also play smart and think about what the Mafia and SK can do and decide whether actually submitting an action will result in any worhtwhile play. Why people think that the Doc, Cop and Vig don't have to worry about switches is beyond me, I mean, it adds a fair amount of depth and thinking on how those 3 roles play as they have to consider: Will the Mafia Switch me, and then Will the SK think the Mafia already switched and switch me back to screw with the mafia or leave me off, or will either of them even bother switching me? if you play like that, you're better at figuring out exactly WHEN your moves will go through or not and you'll better gain information, that's all I'm saying.

So you're saying that the D,C,V would try to think about what the mafia and SK might do to determine whether or not they should even act? So let's say you were one of those roles, you would think, "Well I think they're gonna switch me off, so I'm not even going to submit an order."? That makes no sense at all. If you have no control over the switches, all you can do is look at your result. If you get "No Result" as the cop, then you know you were switched off, but what can you do with that information? You have no idea who switched you off. It's just a lost night for your investigations, but there's nothing else to be analyzed. For the doc and vig, it's even less informative, because you get no result back. If the person the doc was supposed to protect dies, then the doc knows he was deactivated. But again, what good does that do him? It certainly doesn't mean he will be deactivated again the next night. If the person the vig was supposed to kill doesn't die, then he knows even less, because it could be either that he was deactivated OR that the doc decided to protect that one person. Either way, the vig has no reason to care about the switches, because what happens one night is no guarantee for the next.

[Stringer Bell]

The stuff I said before about switches, etc...

It goes much deeper than that, A person can still submit an action because hey, the SK might switch as well to screw with the mafia or to further advance his own goals, the Vigilante is more likely to hit town than the Mafia and The SK can exploit that, meaning that the SK could switch the Vig if he thinks the Vig was already switched by the mafia, The Vig however can see the ruse and decline to submit an action if he thinks it'll hit town, meaning that even though the SK and Mafia may have switched him, it won't do anything as then it causes confusion by both the SK and the Mafia as they no longer know what happened or they don't know if they caused the Vig to miss his kill or what. The doctor could do the same thing, predict that the mafia may switch him off, the SK may not switch him back on and act accordingly. You can do so much more than just Submit action wait for day. you can use the Day to see if you can guess who the SK or Mafia is then determine what they might plan to do and act on such information. Just submitting a name and hoping that you didn't get switched off is kinda lame and boring, Thinking like the Mafia or SK means that you could more likely submit your actions correctly and prevent yourself from getting blocked if you guess you would as you wouldn't be performing an action to have switched. The mind games associated with Switches are much more complex than people realize.

If the vig were to not submit his order and kill nobody, would that confuse the mafia or the SK any more than if the kill went through? If the mafia see a kill that wasn't theirs the next day, how do they know who it was? It could just as easily have been the SK who killed that person, which means their vig switch worked, or maybe the doc got in the way of a third kill, or any number of other factors. For the vig, the only options are whether or not to submit an order, and who to kill if he chooses to submit one. Worrying about the switches does him no good because the mafia and the SK are already confused by the inherent nature of having switches controlled by two separate parties, and then when you throw the doc in there, it gets even more confusing for those sides. The vig should only not submit a kill if he doesn't have a good read on the game because he would have a bigger chance of randomly hitting town. The doc and cop should NEVER not submit an order, because whether it goes through or not, there's no way the mafia or the SK would know.

p-edit: Syryana beat me to it, and made it way more concise than what I said. But the point is the same, there is no reason for townspeople to worry about the switches.

[Stringer Bell]

V/LA until Tuesday, March 26th.

Vegas, baby.

-- Edit Dr Gudsight: Noted. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose, and may luck be on your side!

[Stringer Bell]

Alright I'm back. Survived Vegas with all my vital organs intact, though I probably have lost more than a few brain cells. I'll be reading to catch up over the next day or so.

[Stringer Bell]

I really hate that I was out of the game for so long, it sort of ruins my feel for the flow of the game.

unseencamo

: His play-style confuses me to no end. I can't get a read on which side he falls on. I've read through his posts multiple times and just can't seem to figure him out.

Malakittens

: the first vote on USC in #286, citing USC's vote on JKM while still being suspicious of multiple people as the main reasoning. I don't love this reasoning, because everybody is suspicious of multiple people at this point. JKM was lurking hard, and was eventually replaced, but at the time, I don't mind USC trying to pressure somebody who hadn't gotten much of a look because of his inactivity. USC didn't like the Crazed wagon, and was also suspicious of Syry, which is also warranted because his scummy play through the first part of the game.

Syryana

: puts together a really good post in #302 about why USC is scum, but then doesn't vote him until a little bit later, once serra has jumped on the wagon. That seems a bit weird to me, almost like Syry wanted some sort of approval before moving his vote from Crazed to USC.

DCLXVI

: I didn't have a read on JKM before he left (how could I? he never posted), but I think DC has done a good job scumhunting in the time since he replaced in. I don't want to get back into setup discussion, because we have discussed that to death, but I still disagree with him about the necessity of worrying about the switches when you're not in control of them.

kashoodles

: jumps up my suspicion list a little with his #344. It feels off to me, I can't quite explain it.

Crazed

: still like him as scum, especially after his jump from serra to USC. Then he feels the pressure and goes back to declan. His jumpiness when pressured screams scum to me. I like my vote where it is.

I have to go for the night, but I should be back to my normal activity level starting tomorrow, and will have a post regarding everyone not mentioned above.

[Stringer Bell]

I still prefer a Crazed lynch to a USC lynch. Added to the fact that I just can't read USC's game, I think Crazed lynch/flip will give us more information going forward as well, whether he flips town or scum. I'm fairly confident he'll flip scum, but either way we should get some good info from it.

I'm going to take a harder look at kash and declan in D2.

[Stringer Bell]

Obligatory avoid-prod post. Nothing has changed about my reads, I still prefer a Crazed lynch to a usc lynch.

[Stringer Bell]

You use the excuse of me being scum to accuse me of being scum, therefore, WIFOM...

SCUMSLIP ALERT: Crazed

admitted

to being scum here. He said 'you use the excuse of me being scum to accuse me of being scum'

I disagree. Crazed is arguing that USC used his hypothesis as part of his argument, which doesn't work (and makes mathematicians like me unhappy). Crazed is saying that "the excuse of me being scum" is USC's hypothesis, and then he later uses that in his argument.

[Stringer Bell]

Why can't USC be SK? Why does he have to be mafia?

Depending on what USC flips it will implicate the people who voted Crazed over USC. If USC flips mafia - MsM or DC could be a buddy.

If Syr had a guilty on USC - wouldn't you think it was likely he would have breadcrumbed or kept his vote on USC rather then moving it around?

USC could be SK, could be maf. I don't think it matters, I'm convinced he's one or the other. Either way, he lied and duped us into lynching our vig. VOTE: USC

[Stringer Bell]

We're in Llyoyd now so nobody vote as its possible all 3 scum are online

FOS:Serra

for his madness at the end of yesterday and my general scummy vibe on him all game

I don't like this at all. And besides in Post 664 you told serra to hammer. So why would you give serra a FOS?

I feel extremely confident in this:
VOTE: Superdeclan

Um...what? 664 told Serra to hammer because USC was confirmed as scum/SK, and Serra had just said in the post above that he intended to hammer. The FOS is completely warranted given Serra's weird play yesterday. If USC had flipped scum, I would have immediately pushed a Serra lynch because he seemed so iffy on voting USC, instead going with two other people first. Since he was SK, I have no idea why Serra chose to try to protect him and deflect attention to another person.

You feel extremely confident in your Declan vote, based on that post? I'm sorry, but that just screams scum trying to start a quick wagon and win the game.

Major FOS (but not a vote because we're in Lylo and can't afford a mislynch, plus I want to hear more from BEF in defense of this post): BEF

[Stringer Bell]

Um...what? 664 told Serra to hammer because USC was confirmed as scum/SK, and Serra had just said in the post above that he intended to hammer. The FOS is completely warranted given Serra's weird play yesterday. If USC had flipped scum, I would have immediately pushed a Serra lynch because he seemed so iffy on voting USC, instead going with two other people first. Since he was SK, I have no idea why Serra chose to try to protect him and deflect attention to another person.

Jesus Christ. Are you guys all scum? My two votes and the Intent to Hammer USC

all came within a few seconds

. I WAS MAKING A POINT, GODDAMMIT. How you think I was protecting USC is absolutely beyond me...

Didn't notice that point I bolded above. I just came back and saw all three posts, didn't look at the timing. It's still sort of a weird way to play it. Why not just go "USC is the obvious vote here, but we really need to look at these people tomorrow"? I don't like how you went about it, but I retract my statement about you protecting him, due to the timing thing that I had overlooked.

[Stringer Bell]

Also, I'd still like to see a defense from BEF about his confidence in Declan being scum.

[Stringer Bell]

@stringer you addressed some stuff but ignored my recent post...your thoughts on declan?

Wow, I hadn't posted in a week due to the quicklynch...

We're in Llyoyd now so nobody vote as its possible all 3 scum are online

serras scum. this post proves it.

VOTE: serra

What exactly would you like me to address here? You bring up a good point, but I don't have much to say on the topic other than to agree with what you're getting at. I put Declan on my short list of scum at the end of D1, but I also had Crazed and Kash on that list, and we all know how that worked out. Now I'm just confused and don't have any real suspects outside of BEF.

[Stringer Bell]

What are everyone's opinions on the Kash-kill?

Kash's flip does not surprise me. Besides RVSing, all of Kash's votes were in the Crazed/USC wagons. Kash was very much questioning just about everyone and that makes it difficult for me to place any solid connections.

How would Kash's flip surprise you? You think the mafia is gonna kill one of their own, just to change things up? Of course he was gonna flip VT, that was the only option. I think he was asking more about the fact that the mafia chose Kash.

My answer: I'm not sure it means much. If we look at who had the most town-cred going into the night, I think it was between Mala, DC, and Kash...they were the only ones who really didn't have much heat on them. Other than MsM asking a few questions of me, I didn't have much heat either, I could put myself in that list as well. The only kills that would have surprised me would have been Declan, Serra, or MsM because they were somewhat controversial and the mafia would think that they could get the winning lynch off of one of these three, since Serra and MsM have been going back and forth the whole game and Declan has aroused suspicion in multiple people.

[Stringer Bell]

Because town would be more paranoid to place a vote rather then confidently placing a vote because scum can quick hammer. If a player is scum and placing a vote they don't need to be paranoid or an ounce of doubt that they could be wrong because they know they are goin to try and bait a town into voting with them and securing the lynch.

I have thought BEF is town, but his actions aren't adding up to town in my eyes.

So do you think that people who have placed an early vote today are scum, because the scum would have just come in and quicklynched?

[Stringer Bell]

mafia would think that they could get the winning lynch off of one of these three, since Serra and MsM have been going back and forth the whole game and Declan has aroused suspicion in multiple people.

Am I right in saying that you just called us all town?

No, I'm saying that if any of the three of you died, I would have been surprised since you all had had suspicion on you at one point or another.

[Stringer Bell]

mafia would think that they could get the winning lynch off of one of these three, since Serra and MsM have been going back and forth the whole game and Declan has aroused suspicion in multiple people.

Am I right in saying that you just called us all town?

No, I'm saying that if any of the three of you died, I would have been surprised since you all had had suspicion on you at one point or another.

it just implied that you though we all were town...

Perhaps I misworded it. I did not mean it like that.

[Stringer Bell]

Top three: BEF, serra, Declan. BEF 1st, no preference between serra and Declan.

[Stringer Bell]

Once I noted my concerns about BEF

Malakittens- BEF, MsM & DC
DCLXVI- Serra BEF Declan
serrapaladin- BEF, MM and Declan
Ms Marangal- Stringer, Declan, and Bef
BrightEyedFish- declan, stringer mala/stringer
Stringer Bell- BEF, serra, Declan
Superdeclan- Serra, BEF

Who received most scum-reads:

BEF-6 (unanimous)
Superdeclan 5
serrapaladin 3
DCLXVI 1
Ms Marangal 1
Malakittens .5
Stringerbell .5

I'm thinking either serra or declan is the lynch for today. I find BEF scummy but am concerned about the universal scuminess that has been decided on. He's too easy of a target.

Thoughts on this information guys?

I'm confused. All 6 players other than BEF have BEF on their top three scumlist, whereas only three have serra, but you think it would be better to lynch serra or declan...why exactly? BEF makes all six scumlists, so he's too easy of a target? I think he made all six scumlists because he's been the most scummy out of who we have left.

[Stringer Bell]

I had the same initial reaction to DC's unhappiness with Mala's V/LA, but I don't think it's a scum-motivated series of posts.
If DC is scum and he knew Mala was town, then he would be happy to see a townie leaving for a few days because that gives them even more of an edge in the voting process.
If DC is town and he reads Mala as town (which is my most likely scenario, I think they're both town), then he's unhappy about losing another townie for the same reason, that it gives the scum more power in the vote and discussion over the next few days.

[Stringer Bell]

Now the second time that DC has jumped all over Mala for something quite innocent and small...

[Stringer Bell]

I am not in favor of a NL.

Uh....of course you're not. A NL means an automatic scum win.

[Stringer Bell]

Now the second time that DC has jumped all over Mala for something quite innocent and small...

Do you have anything else to add other then that?

We have less than 4 days until the deadline and people have dissappeared and this might cause us to go into a No Lynch situation and that would force an auto win for the scum team.

I've had a town read on DC all game, and while his talk with Mala recently has been strange, it doesn't change my read of him. Top scum read is still BEF, and I think we've gotten to the point where we have to stop worrying about scum quick lynches and try to figure out a real lynch.

VOTE: BEF

[Stringer Bell]

Is that it?

[Stringer Bell]

Hmm I suppose the game must be over. Good job keeping the clean sheet, guys (and girl).

[Stringer Bell]

Yeah, that's us, MsM. Obviously the day 2 quicklynch helped us immensely...

[Stringer Bell]

Pedit: well... I'm glad I got at least one of the team early on. You did a good job at not giving me fuel to back up my suspicion Stringer

Thanks . I tried to just play my way through it rather than tackle it head on, and that seemed to work quite well.

[Stringer Bell]

Thanks for saving me Guille <3.

And me N2