Open 487: Hard Boiled Day 3: A sinister Murder

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Freshmaniscoolman for slowing the game down.

Alright, so shall we begin with discussions of the setup? Last two Hard Boiled games were pretty much determined by how the town used its PRs.

Firstly, I just want to say that the tracker/vig needs to pick tracker unless you end up claiming D1. Vig screws up the hider and the det/psych considerably.

[Mathdino]

@Larry David: What I mean is that if the tracker/vig is right about to be lynched he should obviously claim and vig the scummiest player at night, as the tracker's useless if he's getting NKed. That's what happened last HB game except the vig killed the detective at night and died.

That said, here's an example of the town utilising the PRs perfectly. Basically, hider claims late D1, and tracker follows hider every night. If hider doesn't die, he announces who he hid behind, making that person conftown. If hider dies, tracker says who hider hid behind, and town lynches that person. Meanwhile, det/psych racks up results and by either D3 or D4, the town has a complete list of confirmed townies. Insta-Win.

[Mathdino]

Hiders are viable, but the night action will only go through if they don't hide. So essentially, if they hide every night, the only way they'll die is if they hit a goon or vig, or if mafia kills the person they hide behind.

I can agree with that, Piratecat, but even then, the hider has a good chance of hiding behind the experienced vig in order to confirm him/her and dying.

So you're a hydra of Malakittens and pirate mollie, right? Not sure I understand what your sig says on distinguishing you.

[Mathdino]

Got it, Piratecat. And I think Marangal was talking to Larry, who was talking to me, basically saying the only reason the tracker/vig should pick vig is if he's forced to claim by the end of the day. Only other time I mentioned claiming was saying the hider will probably have to claim at some point to out some confirmed townies.

@Voodoo: Psych is pretty useful D1 and its usefulness later on will either stay the same or diminish based on whether mafia keep sending the same person or switch things up.

[Mathdino]

Not liking this opportunism on a discussion of theory. I think Piratecat's stance is pretty clearly laid out.

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: freshmaniscoolman

And the Troll™ arrives. Assuming that's not a reaction test, I want reasons, orcinus.

Leafsword pretty much outlines my thoughts on freezing-hell. He's probably my highest suspicion at this point.

[Mathdino]

This is ridiculous. For the record, not OMGUS.

VOTE: orcinus

[Mathdino]

Yes I do. Vote hopping without explanation. I'd have voted for you no matter whom you hopped to. Explain and I'll unvote.

Edit: I'm cautious with my vote unless someone is blatantly screwing around. I am now.

[Mathdino]

You're the one not scumhunting. You have no idea who you're voting for and you're not scumhunting, you're flailing your arms wildly and voting for the first person who calls you out.

It's scum-motivated because it throws a wrench into the town discussion. I'm neither a fan of monkeys nor their wrenches.

I'm telling you because I want you to explain your 3 different votes, but it looks like that's not gonna happen.

[Mathdino]

Argh. ISO'd orcinus in a few games and I can confirm that. I want legit content from orc this time though, and still want explanations.

Edit: How am I pushing your lynch? The secondary purpose of my vote (and every vote) is to put pressure on an individual, and in this case,

I still want explanations, darn it.

I discussed what would get me to unvote because of this, and because you're mocking my supposed OMGUS.

Quick thing: I see how telling a scummy player how to stop being scummy might be against the town's intent, but how is this scummy, hmm?

I no longer think you're scummy only due to meta, but I sure as hell think you're anti-town. UNVOTE: because I don't want a policy lynch, but please stop screwing around.

Edit2: Because 2 unexplained votes were enough for me to facepalm, 3 was enough for a vote. I don't really care who it's on.

[Mathdino]

Wait a sec, you claim that RVSing and attracting suspicion is better than a discussion of theory?

[Mathdino]

Yes, you're absolutely screwing around. Your reasoning is kinda stupid, sorry. I want you to explain yourself, I vote because of this. So far I'm getting nothing for your original vote(s).

I already cast suspicion on FH, but I'm not going to push him for a lynch until he responds. And frankly, trying to break the setup when we have barely any information is a little better than scumhunting in my eyes; it won Open 402. I've already explained the Follow the Hider strategy.

[Mathdino]

And if his next post is an obv active lurking post I'll call him out.

I would prefer not to post a full list of reads as giving the mafia instructions on who to kill in this setup is probably not the best plan.

My top scumread is freezing-hell. My top townreads, in no particular order, are RachMarie, Piratecat, Nekoko, and Marangal.

Edit: Sigh. I guess I see why you voted me now. So you agree with that strategy? And yeah, I see what you're saying on Voodoo Lady, but I'm not compelled to vote her for WIFOMy 'town-slips'.

[Mathdino]

The hider cannot be targetted if it hides behind someone other than the mafia or vig. The only way the mafia can shoot the hider is if they
A. Shoot the guy he hides behind, or
B. The hider for some reason doesn't hide.

The tracker follows the hider to whomever he hides behind just in case hider dies.

[Mathdino]

I never voted Voodoo Lady. That was orcinus.

Fixed

[Mathdino]

Trying to break the game, and waiting for FH to respond to his train of suspicion. I suppose I'll reiterate my strategy for *cough* those who don't read the thread.

1. Hider claims later today but

doesn't post reads or who he's targetting

.
2. Tracker/Vig goes tracker, and follows the hider.
3. If hider is still alive, he announces his hid-ee the next day.
4. If/when hider dies, tracker claims and announces hider's target.
5. Det/Psych claims when the town has enough info to win the game.

Only way town can lose is if mafia gets lucky and shoots a PR, or if town drives a PR to claim D1. Because of this, I suggest PRs not claiming D1 unless there is no way you can defend yourself otherwise.

Edit: Yeah sure. One sec. And honestly, I never vote someone unless they have a chance to respond first. I'm cool with lynching a lurker who's had plenty of opportunities to defend.

[Mathdino]

Be aware I have very little to go on, but here goes:

RachMarie: Failure to remember the hider role (scum would probably read closer before posting), fair early thoughts.
Piratecat: Good thoughts on theory, excellent reasoning in general.
Nekoko: See above. Also the vote order thing will probably be helpful later on.
Marangal: Helpful, and accusation on FH seems townie.

Orcinus is starting to turn into a slightly anti-town townread to me.

Edit: Yeah I hear ya. But still, I prefer theory to RVS and reaction fishing. And half the players haven't posted any real content yet, so I'm not inclined to push a lynch this early.

[Mathdino]

Lol.

I'm no longer voting Orcinus.

Fixed. Now do me a favor and make sure that you make it very visible... like separate lines. Makes my life a whole lot easier.

[Mathdino]

Leafsword was responding to FH as I recall.

Assuming you're talking about Leaf, null to be honest; hasn't posted enough for me to get a read. Agreeing with someone =/= towntell.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Town

read

[Mathdino]

*Adds E Roll to scumreads*

This opportunism is even worse... Not sure if pushing for a policy lynch or legitimately thinking that's scummy.

[Mathdino]

And you have read the entire thread, right? I mean of all reasons to vote orcinus... Not reading the thread is definitely a null tell to me. I can see his unvote from both a town and scum angle.

Any thoughts on other players/suspicions? Any thoughts on theory? (Other than agreement with tracker choosing tracker)

[Mathdino]

^ This.

Although I see where you're coming from, E Roll, this'll have to be an agree to disagree thing.

[Mathdino]

Okay I like starttransmission's and Leaf's first posts o' content.

However, I disagree with all of you jumping on E Roll. At the moment all you guys have is his inaccurate scumtell. Leaning scum to me, but not nearly that much.

On the other hand, I will respond to freezing-hell's question:

FH, that accusation is contradictory in and of itself.

It was. And Neko's post was based on the same so I wonder why are you not mentioning him in some way or another? Do you find me and/or neko suspicious at this point? Same question to Dino.

Neko's post seems more of a town following the only suspicion. Yours, however, reeks of jumping on something that's not even scummy. I don't like how you backpedal and claim you were reaction fishing and getting the ball rolling at all. So to respond in two words:

VOTE: freezing-hell

[Mathdino]

Yo startransmission, what do you think of freezing-hell?

Also, I'm seeing a lot of people saying I'm town because trying to break the setup, but it worries me that no one comments on said setup break.

Here it is. The hider should not be posting honest reads at this point. If you agree to follow the strategy, then say so. If you disagree, say why. At the moment we seem to have myself, orcinus, and E Roll on board. I apologise for doing this soon (and I'd really prefer the hider not claim until we get close to L-1), but it needs to be done before the end of the day and it takes way too long to get anything done around here. I also want to say to orcinus that I'm not trying to do this in place of scumhunting now that we have some meat to look at, but I guarantee this can win it for town if we play right and the PRs pick good targets.

[Mathdino]

Got it, orc. I assume you mean hider rather than t/v.

In case you haven't noticed, I'm trying to not give full reads on everything since we don't have any roles to override mafia's. You're a null read, very slightly leaning town right now.

I'm assume you mean E Roll with 'Mystery'. I don't like FH's jumpiness on everything, nor his complete nonchalance with a lot of people's suspicion, nor the fact that his early vote looked nothing like a reaction test and more like opportunism. He also doesn't actually seem to be going anywhere with any of his posts, and thus isn't helping the town much. Reason why I think him over E Roll is honestly more of a gut thing- E Roll's vote and reasoning seem much more natural (albeit misguided) to me.

I encourage people to vote freezing-hell until the pressure starts ramping up.

Edit: Premature, eh? I'd honestly prefer more scumhunting first. Once the hider claims, I assure you that discussion will go straight to setup, night strategy, and WIFOM.

[Mathdino]

^ What the scum said. FH, I assume this means you agree to follow The Plan?

[Mathdino]

Here's why the hider

should not nor should ever post his or her reads

:
Let's say I'm the hider, and I post my top 3 scummiest players. Well the top one is probably getting lynched anyway, and let's say I'm wrong on the second one. Then the mafia knows I'll probably target that guy, and will then shoot him to take out 2 townies in one night. One could make a WIFOM argument, but let's be honest, the hider posting his/her reads gives the mafia more information. Naturally, the hider could know this and then basically lie about all their reads to trick the scum, which is why I'm willing to lift LaL on the hider.

And the same goes for the town, which is why this game I'm a little paranoid of giving too much info to the scum, since there's no doctor to try to outguess them. I'll post reads when asked, or on whomever I'm trying to get lynched.

@Freezer: When I say 'jumpiness', it's usually a synonym for 'opportunism'. Basically jumping on everything, casting slight suspicion without actually doing it. Your first vote was opportunistic because the reasoning looks dumb and contrived. Now even more so, now that you backpedal and say it was a reaction test.

Here's your question though: What were your thoughts on the 'reaction test' by casting suspicion on and voting Piratecat?

Edit: I'm

trying

to post... But yeah, Post 103's a prime example of what I call hasty jumpiness.

[Mathdino]

Argh.

Not Hider.

Hider, don't feel compelled to claim if you feel you can still get information from not being conftown. However if there's like no chance of anyone casting suspicion on you or interacting scummily with you, go right ahead.

[Mathdino]

My definition of 'jumpy' is really weird, but I like the word so I keep using it. Misrepping and haste count as jumpiness in my eyes.

And fine, if it helps promote discussion.

freezing-hell

- 'Jumpiness', terribad reasoning, and some dodging.

freshmaniscoolman

- ...

Larry David

- Got nothin.

Leafsw0rd

- Good, followable reasoning, asking the right questions. Also isn't really acting like his last scumgame, but meta's tough for new guys.

Mr E Roll

- His 3 posts don't look good, but could very well be misguided town. I'm waiting for him to post more before I'm even considering voting him though.

Ms Marangal

- Got nothin since very little to go on, but once again, helpful and reads like town meta.

Nekoko

- I hadn't scrutinised the sheeping of FH's vote before, so this puts her back at null for me. I doubt they're both scum though, so I still think it looks like a town going after a suspicion, rather than jumpiness. Also I like her vote orders and want them to continue.

orcinus

- Already laid out, but leaning slightly town because I doubt scum would make a case before reading the thread. I also doubt scum would backpedal so quickly and admit to doing so.

Piratecat

- Good posts on Mala's part, haven't seen enough of Mollie to say. Her hesitance to immediately write me off as town looks fairly town in my eyes.

RachMarie

- Mafia wouldn't forget the hider. A lot of her posts have been contentless unfortunately, and active lurking will bring her down a notch.

startransmission

- His one main post of content looks good to me. Subject to change since he only has like 4 posts.

Voodoo Lady

- Not liking the random remarks on the psych, and I see what you guys are saying on the contrived town slip. Town shouldn't say stuff like that. However it could also be legit so keeping at null for now.

Edit: Even giving these few reads gives mafia information on who the hider's

not

hiding behind. I definitely warn against it. I can agree with the hider hiding behind an unsure person.
I guess you're FoSing me then. Too bad I find FH scummier. Here's a question- why are you expressing suspicion toward FH, me, and VL without voting? Specifically FH, that is.

[Mathdino]

Because I like his posts and he's posted more content than most of the null reads.

[Mathdino]

No, no, no. The hider posting his reads is tantamount to suicide. And just because he's town doesn't make his reads stronger. We can wait for a conftown's reads tomorrow when the hider outs someone.

In the end, the hider remaining alive and confirming people as town is better than flailing around with reads.

[Mathdino]

Same here. Guess what? There are 13 people in this set up, 3 are mafia, 1 is hider. Assume the hider says his 3 strongest townreads and they're correct. That leaves 6 people left for the hider to hide behind, and

6 people for the mafia to shoot in order to double kill.

Next night it leaves less if the hider keeps saying essentially who he's not going to target.

[Mathdino]

Alright, here goes nothing. So Piratecat, I'm assuming you're following The Plan?

I'm really not liking how freezing-hell is defending; I don't really feel like repeating startransmission though. And lol at him not posting reads only because of lurkers, rather than giving mafia info.

Orc, I'm comfortable lynching E Roll tomorrow regardless of flip; that vote (and behavo seems pretty bussy and extremely sheepy to me. But most of us seem to think FH is scummy, so let's take him out today.

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: FH

HoS: Orcinus

Your reasoning on Marangal and extreme tunnelling on E Roll suck, they really do. There's a certain point where you're just making everything he says scummy. If and when E Roll turns up town tomorrow, you can just barrel after Marangal in the same way. And I reaaaally don't like how you're trying to direct the town to only lynch those two. Your thoughts on theory don't help much either- hider claiming early and giving reads? Really?

Vote coming when I see more.

Edit: Mkay, I'll give you benefit of the doubt for now. I'll be keeping an eye out for scumminess on you though.

[Mathdino]

Actually, considering things, I wouldn't be surprised if it was orcinus/freezing-hell.

[Mathdino]

Okay I have to go soon but here's why your case on Marangal is horrid:

You use just two posts to decide you want to go all out on Marangal, one being a total null read- she was annoyed with the length of Nekoko's vote orders, how is that suspicious? Then you pick apart word choice in post 166, along with her perfectly valid claim that massive T/S lists are bad- those things you're trying to beat out of people. A list like that doesn't help town at all- asking questions, casting suspicion, and pushing cases do.

A late day counterclaim would've been suicide for the scum, and it'd basically give us a confirmed scum. All the tracker would have to do is track one to find out which one's the real hider and which one's scum. Better to hold off on giving info to the scum until later in the day, but I guess that's not happening.

I have told you why FH>E Roll. The fact that you keep trying to direct the town's wagon away from FH means it's possible you're partners. Still, too early to be making cases on scumteams.

[Mathdino]

Really busy during the week, sorry. I've read through the thread but haven't analysed anything yet. Will do later today.

Just in case,

UNVOTE:

[Mathdino]

Not getting replaced. I'll look over Marangal's and Orc's ISOs again, but at the moment I'm still leaning toward Orc being scum. I'm very curious as to where Star's reads came from as well. Possible he just screwed up or assigned the wrong read to the wrong name. Not inherently scummy though.

Will, of course, look over FH again to see where he stands.

Edit: Guess I'm looking at Rach as well.

[Mathdino]

Sorry for the inactivity again, work interferes.

First thing before I post my ISO analysis of non-Marangals:

Some of you are going to look at the last part and immediately ask what PR you are, and then ask for a counterclaim.

Do not do that.

If she's a PR, we don't want scum to definitely know that, and if she's a VT or scum, we definitely don't want to out our PRs this early; they're too valuable. Let's leave it in the open and just agree not to lynch Marangal yet.

Sure, it's strange that she softclaims instead of actually claiming, but I think this was on purpose. Like I said, even if she is actually scum, any outright claim right now would kill the town.

Because of this I'm not going to go into detail on why she's obviously town, but it really doesn't matter until later.

[Mathdino]

Wow. Epic friggin fail. Didn't notice that Marangal claimed VT (vig/tracker) because of the posting style, lol. Disregard what I just said. Well this kinda screws up The Plan.

Assuming we don't get a counterclaim (and frankly I would heavily advise against one), Marangal, go vig tonight and kill your highest suspect. In the unlikely event that you're still alive tomorrow and there was only one kill, we lynch you.

Det/Psych and Hider, obviously don't target Marangal since she'll probably die.
If there's actually another VT, don't counterclaim, you're too valuable. Also, resist the temptation to go vig and kill Marangal. Once again tracker is a powerful role in this game.

Edit: Acknowledged.

[Mathdino]

>Realises that a specific claim makes Marangal scummier
>Checks ISO
>Realises Marangal is way scummier than I thought...
>Reads thread closer this time

[Mathdino]

Sorry, that's me being a little frustrated with not reading the thread closely enough. I don't mean to be rude but I do hope you're VT (vanilla townie) and draw the NK tonight. Your reads are typically good but your playstyle is just so friggin scummy... and the thoughts on theory don't help.

[Mathdino]

No, I mean as a player. You're excellent with thinking out suspicions, but not so good at communicating and avoiding being scummy, thus leading to this situation.

Since I'm refusing to go after Orc until D2 (his Marangal tangle makes me want to wait until we get confirmation), who other than Orc do you want to lynch today, MsM?

Edit: Last Hard Boiled game, one of the extreme lurkers softclaimed, drew the nightkill, and flipped VT. However based on that post I'm guessing that's not the case here :/

Edit2: I wouldn't be opposed to that, actually.

Edit3: Rach, if I'm smoking, then you're taking something, because if Marangal's tracker/vig then she's dying tonight no matter what, unless the scum decide to be dumb and leave her alive to screw with the town. If you read some of my earlier posts, I said that tracker/vig should always go tracker

unless he/she ends up claiming

, in which vigilante needs to be picked in order to kill someone with their last breaths.

[Mathdino]

So you think Orc was bussing E Roll hard back there? I see what you're saying on FH though. His ISO is coming next, got some reads/analyses in another tab.

[Mathdino]

Thank you, Marangal, for helping to direct the hider and thus the NK. At the end of the day, post who you

will

be targetting, as it's not knowledge the scum can use. A list of people that the hider won't be targetting, is.

Second, I'm not so sure Orc and Marangal is TvT, I'd be fine with a vig on Orci.

Edit: Orc, give us one good reason to even consider choosing tracker here. Read. The. Thread.

Edit2: Lol, E Roll. You're forgiven for being somewhat inactive (I understand), but not for throwing out baseless accusations. Explain the below and I'll consider your reads.

I’ve given the game a read though and my money is on a scum team of Orc, Rach and Dino.

It’s based on the odd dynamics of Orc and Rach.

The discussion on theory.

And the cases Orc pursued against myself and MsM.

[Mathdino]

Sigh.

[Mathdino]

I'd ask you to read the last HB game but that'd be a little cruel.

Let me put it to you this way: No matter what, the scum is going to NK someone. A conftown is useful no matter what, even if only for a day. If the scum don't kill our conftown, who else are the scum going to kill? Either way we're down one town.

Another point: The hider typically goes after nulls instead of obvtowns (no point) and obvscums (just get them lynched). The next night, scum have to choose between an obvtown and a conftown, but either way it keeps the list of townreads up, which is incredibly useful for town.

And one last thing: Information about confirmeds is pro-town, unless outing this info would kill a PR.

Hate to OMGUS but I'm going to set aside my reads for now and just say you're scum. Horrid, horrid reasoning. I'm posting my thoughts on the rest later.

[Mathdino]

That was MY previous post. Not going to argue with you on that point as it's more a matter of opinion.

However the main point is that more info is better unless it kills the PRs. Will hider outing a conftown necessarily kill a PR? No, but it does keep the scum off of the more valuable players.

And the reason I asked you to look at the last one, is because the scum completely ignored the 2 conftowns that the hider generated because they didn't look like PRs. Past games prove the premises of your argument invalid.

[Mathdino]

So the main reason I suspected freezing hell was obviously due to his first few posts and his defence when being attacked, but he's improved going through the thread. The main thing I don't like is how he's asking more questions and giving insight on his townreads than building cases, but I'm willing to chalk that up to style. I find it interesting that his case on Marangal is actually better than orc's is. His contributions are enough to move him to null-but-ever-so-slightly-leaning-town at this point.

Orc, as I said, is null until tomorrow. Leans scum though.

RachMarie on the other hand is looking very very scummy to me right now. There's not all

that

much to analyse- that's not a good thing, seeing as half her posts are fluff. I really don't like her thoughts on Orc vs Marangal, claiming it's TvT followed by this post is incredibly scummy to me. You think Marangal's town, but are willing to lynch her over a NL if she goes to L-1? That's strange irregardless of Marangal's alignment. Then she finds a spot to sorta kinda say Marangal's scum, followed by going straight back to the fence. This seems forced and this looks like bussing. That is all.

On a side note, I find it highly unlikely that Nekoko and RachMarie are both scum. I also find the team of Rach/HP unlikely. Moving on.

hp is null. There're town posts and dumb posts coming from him. I would really rather not lynch him today. However, as per his own ultimatum, I want to see more from him.

jon looks good to me, I don't understand people's suspicion of him.

I really don't like HD's opening, but once again I'm not lynching him for that.

So at the moment it's between Rach and E Roll, likely a scumteam together. The other scum is filled by one of Orc or Marangal, HD, and possibly hp.

[Mathdino]

Not sure if my theory just got blown to hell or is confirmed with that last post. I'm a little more hesitant now on the topic of you.

Rach, on the other hand, I'm fine with lynching.

[Mathdino]

E Roll.

Are you the tracker/vig?

[Mathdino]

Well thanks for destroying the test there. You're implying I actually think he's a tracker/vig.

Take a friggin chill pill, mate. Good god.

[Mathdino]

See, the only scum motivation from that would have to have me guess somehow that he's the vig/tracker,

then directly ask him instead of just lynching him or NKing him.

You've pointed out inconsistency, but you haven't shown what's scummy here.

[Mathdino]

The one where I give him an out and lynch him if he uses it. As hp pointed out, it doesn't seem like he thinks Marangal is tracker, and I'm wondering why. It's pretty obvious he's no PR though.

Hey mate, it you want to come up with legit arguments as to why I'm scum, go ahead. Read 588 instead of declaring a 'jihad' on the first thing that catches your eye.

[Mathdino]

You know what, I'm afraid of who Marangal's vigging tonight if it's not E Roll; she has a huge range of other suspects, many of whom I don't agree with. Leave him for the vig, and let's just lynch RachMarie now.

And yeah, don't vig Orc. E Roll takes higher priority, we can decide on orc tomorrow.

VOTE: RachMarie

[Mathdino]

Why lynch Rach and then vig me? Because that gets rid of one scum in Rach. If I’m lynched MsM has declared she won’t vig Rach and I’m not seeing my scumspects in her expressed pool of targets.

This is actually sensible. Hate to QFT the main suspect. E Roll is def getting vigged, let's focus on the non-obvobvscum.

[Mathdino]

HP, she's probably vigging you, if we get E Roll lynched. We should take out RachMarie first.

[Mathdino]

Ugh, not liking this. If you guys aren't lynching Rach, I'm fine with E Roll, but

I want to know who Marangal's vigging before lynching him.

E Roll is at L-2. As both orc and I think he's scum, we're set to lynch. No one put more votes on though, just in case.

[Mathdino]

Yo PC, not asking for your reads, but who do you want to lynch today? Other than Nekoko that is, considering you're voting for her.

Oh, and btw, Nekoko, I'm lazy, so I'd be cool with you posting another vote order count.

[Mathdino]

Marangal, stop being wishy-washy, give us specifics. Otherwise scum go into the night with instructions on how to kill the hider.

(And either you or HD should change avatar, just sayin)

I agree with orcinus except on the topic of HP. Hey Orc, why don't you want to lynch E Roll anymore?

[Mathdino]

Actually, lemme ask specifically. If E Roll doesn't get lynched, are you going to vig him?

[Mathdino]

Excepting HP, E Roll is one of the few people that you, I, and Marangal agree on. I don't want Marangal to take out town tonight.

You'll have to get it through your mind that you can't control who Marangal thinks is scum, so we're gonna have to compromise here.

[Mathdino]

That feel when I'm totally ready to lynch someone but PRs are holding it up.

Marangal, who do you vig if:
1. E Roll flips town.
2. E Roll flips scum.
3. Rach flips town.
4. Rach flips scum.
5. HP flips town.
6. HP flips scum.

Edit: Agreed, HD, lol.

[Mathdino]

Sigh. I don't think HP's scum but I suppose this is the point of trusting our PRs.

UNVOTE: RachMarie
VOTE: E Roll

Let's do this.

L-1.

[Mathdino]

*Raises hand @f'in-hell*

Unfortunately it doesn't seem like that's gonna happen. Enough support for it and I'll switch, no question.

[Mathdino]

No, my strongest scumread is E Roll. The problem is if we lynch E Roll, HP's getting vigged. If we lynch Rach, E Roll gets vigged. It's the choice between one scum and two scum dying.

[Mathdino]

Let me reiterate. I don't think hp is scum. I think Rach and E Roll are both scum.

If we lynch Rach, it leaves E Roll as a vig target.

We lynch E Roll, Marangal is refusing to kill Rach, so we're left with a dead townie tomorrow unless she gets lucky.

No matter what, E Roll's dying, so I'm not worried about getting rid of him. I would just prefer Rach dying to hp dying.

[Mathdino]

And considering Nekoko's and FH's support, I'm willing to switch now. Will write up a case on Rach later.

UNVOTE: Mr E Roll
VOTE: RachMarie

[Mathdino]

You'll notice the extreme hesitance in that statement. Fact is, I'm not taking the vig's word for everything, especially when there's still the off chance that she fakeclaimed and the real V/T took my advice.

Nice softclaim btw.

[Mathdino]

Why do you guys find a Rach/E Roll team unlikely? E Roll jumped on Rach literally just because everyone else was; either terrible sheeping or bussing. Rach displayed suspicion of E Roll throughout, but displayed some hesitance to write a case or consider voting him until he's at L-1.

I'd vig E Roll no matter what tonight, Marangal.

Edit: ARGH.

[Mathdino]

Were you trying to dodge the NK by not posting much content back there or what?

[Mathdino]

Hang on, YOU WEREN'T EVEN AT L-1. WHYYYY.

Okay, doing a reassessment of my next suspects down the line (which aren't that many unfortunately).

[Mathdino]

Oh. My. God.

You were at L-3. Good job. This post is so right.

[Mathdino]

That feel when I completely forgot to read Nekoko's ISO earlier. It's completely ridiculous, switching to the most popular up and coming wagon and reusing already made points to form a 'case'.

Still don't think hp is scum, but I'm cool voting Neko so long as E Roll dies tonight.

Edit: Unfortunately you still played suspiciously due to trying to be in that limbo between obvtown NK target and obvscum lynchee. Shouldn't have tried to breadcrumb, methinks.

Oh, and btw, I find it unlikely you're getting killed tonight, seeing as detective isn't that useful N1 while killing the vig removes all further vig shots. At least we'll have a conftown tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

Yeah well considering you claimed at L-3...

Hey nopoint, good to see someone in that slot.

[Mathdino]

Yes I know, I'm more sure of RM than I am of Marangal actually.

I want to see a case on HP that isn't reliant on post 293. I, meanwhile will be showing why Nekoko should be lynched.

Marangal, who're you vigging if:

Nekoko flips town?
Nekoko flips scum?

Edit: There were 3 people on the wagon, followed by my vote. 7 to lynch, she was L-3.

[Mathdino]

HOLD UP AND CALM DOWN.

Like I said, I want a case on HP. At this point I'm almost completely sure HP is not scum. Convince me and I'll join.

Nekoko case still in the works.

[Mathdino]

Wooooow. Just wow. Okay so NEKOKO:

I still have nothing against her vote on PC. 167, however, is nothing but defence and agreeing with what's already been said, but making a wall of it to look helpful. 276 is once again, restating things already gone over 70 posts ago, except putting a vote on it. However once things started to shift, once it became clear that going after E Roll wasn't gonna get more towncred, she randomly switches to the next trendy wagon, that of Marangal. Note that

in the same post

, she starts speculating on who to lynch if Marangal is town, which makes no sense if she's trying to take out Marangal today.

OH LOOK. More agreement and restatement of points against Rach! All this wagon hopping partially helped to out both our PRs on D1, well done Nekoko!

I'd like to note that Nekoko's vote orders (which I actually did like)

stopped right before her second vote hop.

Perhaps because it would incriminate her more?

Then there's also the matter of Nekoko's total indecisiveness and long list of scumreads, something i see as more scum than town.

Going off of what FH said above, check out this, where Neko completely changes her mind on vigging E Roll, instead asking to vig HP. Not liking this at all, and I think it's indicative of an E Roll/Neko team.

Edit: Ugh, HP, you're town but stop posting logic and defences like that, please.

[Mathdino]

Let that be L-3.

UNVOTE: Whoever
VOTE: Nekoko

Lynch Neko, vig E Roll, tomorrow we have one scum left and one conf town. Lessdothis.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: *L-4

[Mathdino]

Orcinus could be correct on E Roll.

I have reason to believe Neko's not scum anymore. I'll be looking at HP later today.

UNVOTE: Nekoko

[Mathdino]

I'm cool with leaving it at that for now. (Also cuz I have no time right now)

[Mathdino]

I'll tell you later, when what I say won't affect things.

[Mathdino]

No offence to E Roll, but if he's not reading the thread and is pretty much dying no matter what, I'm not going to be reading/taking his posts seriously.

But yeah, I seem to have read HP incorrectly. Let's take him out. VOTE: hp[leaves]

[Mathdino]

Everything in his post is either misrepping, ignorance of what I've already said, or completely untrue.

Trust me when I say I have good reasons to be doing this.

[Mathdino]

@E Roll: Fair question. It's because I tend not to vote early on unless the person is given ample time to defend. And yes, it's because I thought orcinus was scummier and I used the unvote to reflect that. Then when I came back like 8 pages later orc defended and FH redeemed himself.

[Mathdino]

Not going to say that suspicions aren't justified; I'm perfectly aware of how odd I'm acting right now. Once again I'm willing to completely explain myself when doing so won't affect what I'm trying to do. If I'm still scummy by tomorrow, rope me. Excuse my secrecy.

[Mathdino]

It should be obvious, considering Marangal's already laid out her intentions. If a scummy player and a obvtown player die, it's vig and scum, if two scummy players die, should be obvious, and if one person dies, there's no vig.

[Mathdino]

WAIT. Marangal, decide now so PC knows. Who're you vigging if HP flips scum or town? Also,

Okay. I've made up my mind. Lynch HP/NEKO -> VIGI HP/NEKO
They are both scum, pretty sure.

I'm assuming you're planning on following through with this.

[Mathdino]

F'in-hell, HP's scum. There's no reason to be afraid if you're so sure.

That response was frankly enough to deserve a vig if HP's town.

[Mathdino]

That said, FH is pretty much conftown tomorrow if HP flips scum.

Edit: You're not helping yourself here.

[Mathdino]

Rach. Outing who you're investigating would make the investigation completely useless. It allows the scum to choose who NKs. Keep it to yourself pls.

[Mathdino]

Lol, orc, why would you even suggest Marangal not vigging when she's almost definitely dying tonight? There's no reason for scum to kill Rach first.

[Mathdino]

Not narrow enough, PC, scum would then have a 1/3 chance of hitting you, and you'd have a 3/6 chance of hitting scum. Not good odds.

[Mathdino]

No, PC, that'd still give you a 3/7 chance of surviving. Can't take risks without anyone tracking you.

YO MARANGAL. I'm beginning to slightly agree with Orc here, but only on your wishy washyness. Just because you're a PR doesn't mean you're allowed to be way vague. Come up with one person for each flip. One. Then we lynch HP.

[Mathdino]

CRAP. Just realised my uber mistake. It's likely that Marangal's vig list and the real scum overlap. Still, the chances are still around half and half and we can't afford that.

[Mathdino]

Thanks Marangal. Someone hammer.

Edit: HP is pretty much 100% scum. I don't know why you're going back to E Roll right now.

[Mathdino]

Why don't you hammer? Or are you just waiting for the PR to confirm the lynch?

[Mathdino]

Yeah, please vig FH if HP turns up town. This behaviour is way too weird.

[Mathdino]

E ROLL CONFIRMED FOR BEING TOWN.

[Mathdino]

That's why I was being secretive. Going vig and killing my own person, lynch Marangal tomorrow.

Seems I was being too obvious.

[Mathdino]

No, I'm not.

Rach, Marangal's making the kill, that's why you're getting a negative. They've rendered both our roles useless.

[Mathdino]

This is how I knew/thought HP was scum. I won't have enough time to post a full analysis before night comes, but PLEASE look over every Marangal post carefully.

[Mathdino]

Yeah that was suicide for me, but posting a full case on HP would have made me a new Nekoko and gotten me lynched. Who'd you think was V/T?

[Mathdino]

Exactly what I thought you'd think, lol. Him and freshman's slot.

[Mathdino]

I'm vigging FH if HP's town.

I'm not sure about if he's scum, hang on.

[Mathdino]

Yeah so I'm still vigging E Roll if HP is scum. Still looking over ISO.

[Mathdino]

And lol, Marangal. Thanks for the info

[Mathdino]

We'll discuss this in the dead thread. Stop distracting me.

[Mathdino]

Be wary of Orcinus tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

Marangal's vig suspects were likely to keep you off of a scum. Definitely vigging E Roll if HP's scum.

[Mathdino]

Actually, just don't hide behind jon and E Roll. I'll figure this out during the night.

Thanks for letting me know HP's scum though.

[Mathdino]

Marangal, stop backpedaling. You slipped big time.

[Mathdino]

(What's funny is my questions were actually honest and friendly, not intending to get useful info. Only noticed when FH pointed out Neko and start)

[Mathdino]

Yeah FH makes sense. Still gonna look over jon. Consider him a viable candidate D3 due to interactions.

FH if HP's town, E Roll if scum.

[Mathdino]

Simply your insistence is assurance enough. Because otherwise you'd die so doing all that would be futile.

[Mathdino]

Oh and btw, don't believe Marangal's weird backtracking. There's a reason I randomly unvoted Nekoko. Interaction kinda obviously makes Nekoko town. Not sure about star though.

[Mathdino]

Yeah yeah.

[Mathdino]

Well this is awkward. A lot of you are going to write me off as a VI for this... but I actually forgot to shoot.

But yeah, good game guys! I'm not really sure about the HB setup at this point, as others have said it's incredibly easy to break.

[Mathdino]

I knew I was done when I started randomly switching suspicions back there. That was me reading through Marangal's posts along with a few other players looking for connections. It got really obvious when I started being all secretive about why I was switching.

[Mathdino]

I won't doubt that I kind of owned Day 1, but that night I completely derped out. Was gonna shoot Marangal but I basically fell asleep before the deadline.

Likewise, Rach. Probably enjoyed playing with you and Leaf most throughout.

Honestly, Marangal, if I were you, I'd have kept quiet about my being V/T, shot me at night and let yourself get lynched the next day. I was gonna follow the plan and go tracker if I had no reason to believe I'd be shot. In the end you basically gave us a few conftowns at the end of that day when I was making small talk. I was laughing so hard at when you were going all out WIFOM on starttransmission and Nekoko during twilight.