Open 490: Donner Party Mafia (Game Over)

[fferyllt]

I am certain that 2 town are on the wagon. Would be surprised if it is 3 town.

Mala, what makes you believe that scum-Syryana would have hammered a town PR? That's the most difficult to accept part of the scum-Syryana scenario.

[fferyllt]

because of the risk of being lynched the next day?

[fferyllt]

and look where he's at. L-1 It was reasonably predictable.

[fferyllt]

I'm looking for consensus among my town reads before I put a vote down. With up to 3 non-town players left, town really can't afford to split the vote. I don't know that my town reads are correct, but it's the best I've got. I want to vote with you, Otolia and <the correct pick between Syr and Mala>.

sigh.

[fferyllt]

Syr is the one who made the argument for DCL being scum with GM. Would it benefit scum for town to think we might get another game day if we vote wrong today? probably.

[fferyllt]

Does it benefit scum for town to think that there is room for one more mislynch today? I think it does but I'm not sure.

[fferyllt]

Intent to hammer.

[fferyllt]

The SK was alive last night. We had 2 kills. It's a question mark today.

The thing that worries me about the bandwagon is GM's presence on it. But I have no reason to think I can read her as scum, so I'm basically taking a leap of faith that Otolia is right, and that you are right to buy into his case on Syr.

[fferyllt]

remote chance the 2nd kill was vig I guess.

[fferyllt]

Yeah. remote.

[fferyllt]

I'm getting very worried of goodmorning's behavior. She has made some good points today but the despair I'm sensing is not what I would expect.

What despair? This game is ridiculously exciting. It's anything goes at this point; hypothetically, any faction could win. To work hard for a win, to be precise and try to ensure that you're correct - that's the definition of a game I feel great joy over playing. So no, I'm not despairing, and I'm not sure why you'd want me to be portrayed as such.

I wouldn't say that you're coming off ridiculously excited day 3.

[fferyllt]

I still want to lynch GM. :/

That last post of hers seems carefully written to be completely neutral as to which faction she belongs.

[fferyllt]

I've wanted to give Syryana time to follow up on the despair thing with Oto.

I posted intent to hammer because I am going to vote with you and Mala today and that's where you stand. I think Syryana knows that. I'll wait at least 24 hours to see if anyone has more to say.

[fferyllt]

We can wait.

I'd still like for us to consider lynching GM over Syr today.

[fferyllt]

it's mostly gut. And her last post is giving me fits because it appears to be carefully worded to not outright claim to be town. I hate to lie, and that carries over into mafia. When scum I often find myself writing posts that are ambiguously worded, looking them over 2 or 3 times, and trying to figure out how to imply town more strongly before hitting submit.

Ironically, one of her posts implied that her self meta could apply to auspicious on day 1. I'm not implying though there is some self-meta involved here. I'm talking about the non-town motivations for writing ambiguously when the topic brushes against the person's alignment.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: goodmorning

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I know. I'm breaking ranks.

[fferyllt]

Basically I wrote ambiguously because I felt like it.

Mala, where's the town motivation in that? ^^

[fferyllt]

Where's the town motivation in fence-sitting for Oto?

___

Uh, you know town can lie and scum can lie. Town shouldn't lie, but they will. Scum will lie because they need too.

Really, it's your own decision in how GM's posts reads.

This also could be a reaction test to see who goes after him for writing it

. >_>

maybe. but potential LYLO is a dumb fucking time for town be doing stuff that shakes other people's reads for the worse.

[fferyllt]

@mod, I'll be V/LA until Wednesday.

Fery, why are you voting GM now? Didn't you have intent to hammer me?

Because I feel more sure about her being scum than you. I'm pretty much flabbergasted that she could post something so role-ambiguous at this stage of the game and not raise more eyebrows.

[fferyllt]

To follow on my desparation comment, I also read goodmorning as eager to lynch Syryana. We have the same reads so what does she knows that I don't ? I'm still a bit confused.

I'd rather wait until this week end to have Syryana lynched but I don't think I'm going to vote anyone else today so it doesn't really matters if he is hammered today.

Questions:
1)If GM is extremely eager to get me lynched and by her own admission is extremely excited by this game at the moment, what does that indicate to you?
2)Why wait until the end of the week to hammer if you're so sure I'm scum?
3)If GM is another scumread, why are you unwilling to vote anyone that's not me?

1. It indicates nothing in particular but it worries me. She could be a townie happy with her reads or there is also the possibility that she might be the SK really keen on lynching the last remaining scum.
2. Because it allows me (and the rest of the town) to talk about the current situation. Maybe I'll get a sudden revelation.

Or maybe fferyllt will vote goodmorning.

3. First you make more sense as scum. Second just because I don't plan to do it, doesn't mean I never will but that I have no plans to. I'm sorry that I have to explain English to you.

How does my voting GM change the landscape of the game?

[fferyllt]

I don't like post #1074. Oto doesn't want to vote Syr, Oto is waiting for Fery to vote GM...

Which in returns moves a wagon off Syr and onto GM.

There is WAY TOO much fence-sitting from Oto.

So yeah; I'm good with a Syr or Oto lynch. >>

My vote hasn't changed anything that I can tell.

[fferyllt]

Had a feeling that might be it. Figured I'd ask though, since other people seem to be more interested in pointing out you did it rather than asking why.

The indrawn breaths are pretty interesting.

[fferyllt]

It will. I was thinking ahead since Bulba probably wants GM lynched over Syr. So yes your vote on GM does change everything.

So the wagon moves off Syr and onto GM.

Maybe. We'll see.

I feel a lot better with my vote where I think it belongs than I did committing to follow the vote of a town read.

[fferyllt]

Where's the town motivation in fence-sitting for Oto

?

___

Uh, you know town can lie and scum can lie. Town shouldn't lie, but they will. Scum will lie because they need too.

Really, it's your own decision in how GM's posts reads.

This also could be a reaction test to see who goes after him for writing it. >_>

Just noticed the bolded. I don't have a town read on Oto. It's interesting that he doesn't have GM down as potential scum, but rather SK or town, but I really don't want to stuff my head with any more wifom than I'm already trying to process.

I started the day wanting to see you, Syr and bulba agreeing on a wagon because you were my best guess as to who is town. It didn't happen.

[fferyllt]

jesus christ.

I am thinking that Syryana was right about Mala.

[fferyllt]

You really do sound like Mollie..

So Fery have anything to back that up or you just saying that to try and gain points with Bulba.

I don't really trust either of you at this point for choosing Syr over GM yesterday.

ISOing this game has been painfully fruitless. I'm going to try reading it contextually again today or tomorrow.

Mollie and I both learned mafia playing games with short days (24 hours or less) and we share an influential mentor, though I think his teachings fit her game style better than mine. You're picking up on what corresponds to a regional dialect, I think.

[fferyllt]

It's interesting that Mala appears to not even be entertaining the possibility that you could be scum, Bulbazak.

No question that I'm the easier lynch.

[fferyllt]

I have entertained it because of the lack of him being killed multiple nights in a row which he's been a decent town read for the majority of players.

you say you've entertained it, but you didn't mention it until I pointed out the unidirectional nature of your voiced suspicions.

[fferyllt]

Actually, Ffery's voting GM over Syryana makes me lean town. I can't see mafia passing a mislynch opportunity like that up, especially with how well this game has been going for them.

As for her unsure/scum read on GM, again, I don't remember that from her ISO. Although I do remember that you held that stance all game and did nothing about it.

I remember thinking that killing the 4th player on svenskt's wagon might point suspicion on the 5th and 3rd - Syryana and me. I started day 3 expecting to be the default lynch because unlike me, Syryana had looked uber town prior to that abortion of a quicklynch. But, the speculation about DCL possibly being scum was hope-inspiring if not strongly convincing. I was pretty pessimistic about there being a day 4 if we got day 3 wrong.

[fferyllt]

I know MS meta doesn't extend to analyzing night kills, and every time I do some of my patented night kill analysis there's a chorus of "that's just wifom". But in a game where the night kills don't flip, I think it's necessary to explore possibilities.

And I was not the only person who thought so on day 2. Or day 3.

[fferyllt]

Mala,

Bulbazak's analysis resonates as much from the logic as from the distinct scum vibe from your posts today.

I'm more than a little taken aback that he put down a vote so soon in a 3-way lylo situation.

[fferyllt]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

Purists spell it Ockham's Razor.

I haven't heard of Shaheed's Law before, but it would make a good mitigation for Murphy's Law.

[fferyllt]

Mala why didn't you vote Bulbazak?

[fferyllt]

If you are town, you know that Bulbuzak revealed his alignment with that vote.

[fferyllt]

way more moving parts in that lylo.

I dunno. If you know I am town because I haven't hammered, and you are also town, then I don't get what you are thinking right now.

[fferyllt]

I am starting to think that Hasheed's law isn't with me.

[fferyllt]

I said I thought Syr was right about you, Mala. Not about everything he said. Whether it's a slip or not, you extended my statement beyond my scope.

[fferyllt]

Ok, so one of two things is going on here. It's either 2-1 or 1-1-1.

And I think it is 2-1 because I don't believe that only one of GM, Oto and DCL were not town.

I had no sense at all from Mala that she was trying to figure me out when the game day started. Surely a town player, no matter how sure, would still be asking herself if I could possiibly be town because to be wrong was to lose the game. Right from the gate she was putting a case out there - a prepared case.

bulbazak is not much different except that his case was in large part based on what was actually posted today. He was still thinking and evaluating data.

I didn't expect to be casting the deciding vote today. I expected to be simultaneiously trying to stave off my lynch and figure out who the other town player is.

1-1-1 didn't really even enter my mind until bulba voted and Mala didn't. It probably should have, but with oto dead, I thought the SK threat at least was done.

If I were certain it's 1-1-1 then I would drag this out and see if I could get to nightfall with a nolynch.

But I am not at all certain, and following a 1-1-1 strategy will lose the game if bulbazac is town rather than SK. Yeah, SK. I don't believe he is scum, so he is either town or SK.

But, I think it's far more likely that Oto was SK.

I will lift a glass to Shaheed if I am right.

VOTE: Mala

[fferyllt]

gg bulba.

[fferyllt]

after Mala's entrance into the thread today, there was simply no way I'd buy that she was town, unfortunately.

[fferyllt]

are you sk or scum, bulba?

[fferyllt]

Whatever. Fery you need to keep a more open mind next time. >.>

Good game.

yeah, both of us, I guess.

Oto was town, then. wow.

[fferyllt]

SK. Pretty good shot too. Took out vig n1, dietician n2, and mafia (Goodmorning) n3.

excellent shot.

And your in-game play was good too. But, if you had helped me make GM the day 3 lynch I would not have spent 20 seconds deciding who was town today.

[fferyllt]

I knew from day 2 onward that I was probably going to be alive at endgame because I had made myself seriously lynchable. it's usually not a part of the game I see up close.

[fferyllt]

Usually when I don't vote right after someone votes me in LyLo I'm town. Usually, but you didn't seem to grab that like I wanted too yet it backfired on me >.>

I think it came down to feeling that my town instincts were the instincts any town player would have at that point. Your play looked nothing like what was running through my mind from the moment I saw the day 1 post. I thought I was seeing either scum-mala/SK-bulba or scum-mala/town-bulba.

[fferyllt]

wait...

was this 1-1-1?

[fferyllt]

Thanks for the game Zaicon! The moderation was great!

[fferyllt]

Yes, it was a 1v1v1. The SK won, town&mafia lost

lol you seriously guilt tripped me into thinking I'd lynched town.

[fferyllt]

your scum vibe was overwhelming. I was feeling bad that I had misread you so badly there for a while.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, you had already lost. It was just me and Mala in a game of wills. It probably would have been harder had she not revealed her partner.

I will also use this as proof positive that I can read Goodmorning.

This game will help me in future games with GM for sure.

I guess I should have gone for the no lynch waiting game.

[fferyllt]

Sorry town. By the time my play stopped sucking and I had some valid reads, it was way too late.

What would have happened if I voted nolynch or refused to vote at all? I was thinking about doing that, but couldn't convince myself 100% that Bulba was SK and not town.

[fferyllt]

You can't no-lynch in this game. Had fferyllt not voted by deadline, plurality rules would come into effect and Malakittens would have been lynched (since Bulbazak placed his vote first) anyway.

I have always had a soft spot for 3rd party roles, and that did factor into my decision to go with Bulbazak as more likely town than Mala.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I read the dead thread. I'm not surprised there was a lot of suspicion swirling around me on it, but I was a little surprised that I was the vig target on day 1. I knew my play was pretty flat on day 1 but thought I was probably middle of the pack somewhere.