Open 497: Tit for Tat (Game over!)

[Ankamius]

Hey.

I'll read up sometime later.

[Ankamius]

Alright, quick readthrough. I have a really bad habit of having something to say about half the posts of the game (and subsequently losing interest from how long it takes), so I'll try my best to be really brief. I'll go into more detail on any points if asked.

Minor scumvibes from Sakura Hana's #18

Okay never mind, Sakura Hana is town for #29

Minor scumvibes from Alicewondering's #33

Okay, Sakura Hana is super town.

WTF Alicewondering #39

Kerberos is town for #48

Here I decided to actually look at Day/Night 1 flips since apparently I was under the impression it was still day 1. TMTOLBTWNTOF and Alicewondering get scumpoints for Kerberos' #52 while Kerberos gets more townpoints.

ThAdmiral gets scumpoints for #60. There's a lot more you could be responding to about now.

...Kerberos #62 was bad. Remind me to look at #52 again if one of TMT/Alice/Kerberos flip.

Monty's #69 gives me mixed vibes. The way he stated that Rach is probably confirmed town but admitting that he could be wrong just rubs me the wrong way.

Okay, scumvibes for #73.

Sakura Hana is still town as of #79

TMTOL gets townpoints for #80

#86: ThAdmiral confirmed for super unhelpful. At least his vote is good

Monty gets scumpoints for #94

#98: Nope, still leaning Alice scum

#105: ...backup... scumread? What?

Alright, TMTOL is starting to diminish my townread of that slot with #107. That was a pretty bad vote

#124 Did I mention that Sakura Hana is town yet?

Not reading #128; I have a vendetta against walls

#151 by Johhog looks mostly town

Apparently Sakura Hana being convinced by a case is scummy according to Alice's #159. Scumpoints

Johhog's point on Monty's #94 is super town

#180-181 by Alice looks really bad. Alice votes Bert, then immediately goes into a case on Sakura-scum. I have a hard time believing this is a town mindset.

#197 by Radioactive Wolf looks opportunistic as hell

Ehhhhhhh. #202 gives me very mixed vibes. His town list is spot on (MeowMix at this point is so obviously town it hurts, and Sakura isn't far behind). Rach and Johhog being on the scumlist is a huge question mark though. I'm starting to think he's going for the easy targets (Rach/freezing) to see if he can get an easy lynch off.

Radioactive Wolf's reason for Johhog-scum (and yes, I'm aware it's a weak scumread on his part) is giving me minor scumvibes. Not liking this slot.

#254 scumvibes from ThAd

IDK I'd probably only vote for ThAd if all my biggest scumreads were very obviously not going to get lynched (responding to Kerberos #289)

I skimmed most of the last two pages because my eyes are starting to unfocus.

Reads in next post.

[Ankamius]

SCUM

Alicewondering
Radioactive Wolf

TMTOLBTWNOF
ThAdmiral
RachMarie

Johhog
Kerberos
Sakura Hana

TOWN

VOTE: AliceWondering

[Ankamius]

Oh, now that I've remembered, just as a quick OOC note.

Nice to be playing with you again Alicewondering, and good to finally be playing a game with you Rach.

[Ankamius]

Is the last line to me or Wolf?

[Ankamius]

Holy activity.

[Ankamius]

Rach: How about that vote count analysis you said you were going to do 3 days ago?

[Ankamius]

@Ankamius, what makes you so sure that Sakura is "super town"? Can you please explain the read to me?

Is this necessary right now? She's not in any real danger of getting lynched (and there's actually no pressure on her at all) right now, so I don't see a reason to go too much into depth on it.

[Ankamius]

Nope.

Mafia has an effective Goon right now. They have the Rolecop ability and town has the Jailkeep ability at the moment.

[Ankamius]

Mafia has the rolecop and Town has the jailkeeper.

If the mafia rolecop dies, town gets the rolecop ability.
If the town jailkeeper dies, mafia gets the jailkeep ability.

This is assuming the backup of either is still alive. Naturally mafia won't get the jailkeep ability if their backup jailkeeper dies before the town jailkeeper. Same with the rolecop in the other direction.

[Ankamius]

I'd rather avoid a lynch right now. A quick look at Radioactive Wolf's ISO indicates he's done very little of consequence in well over a week (and yes I'm aware of his V/LA notice). I'm very interested in what has changed since this:

Alright, I really have to go so I'll make this post short and sweet, but I think I'm fully caught up with the game now.

In a nutshell... my townreads are meowmix and sakura hana (and maybe Kerberos and maybe admiral).

My top scum suspects at this point are RachMarie, freezing-hell, (and maybe Johhog and

maybe

TMT)

Everyone I didn't name is some kind of null.

---

Is this necessary right now? She's not in any real danger of getting lynched (and there's actually no pressure on her at all) right now, so I don't see a reason to go too much into depth on it.

No, it's not strictly necessary, but it might help improve my read on her.

I'll go into more depth if she starts being in danger of a lynch. If no one thinks she's scummy enough for a vote, why should I try to convince people not to vote her?

[Ankamius]

Wow. The site ate my post. I'll recap what I said:

TMT+Rach is my initial thought, need to reread Rach + ThAd to get a better idea. I'm most sure of TMT scum.

[Ankamius]

Yeah, popcorn is completely useless here. If there's any counterclaims, it will just be done without popcorning.

Although at this point, I'm pretty sure everyone has posted since that claim.

[Ankamius]

So, Ankamius, who should we by lynching today?

Choose one of ThAdmiral and RachMarie. They're the scumteam.

[Ankamius]

Radioactive Wolf and TMT are confirmed town. I know I'm not town.

Sakura Hana is a very strong town read.

That leaves you two.

[Ankamius]

I still say MYLO we should vote NL .

No

All that scum are going to do is jailkeep me and kill TMT.

The odds are as good as they're going to get. Now I want to stop talking about it.

uggh Wolf I was trying not to mention that part cause I did not want to give scumz ideas just in case they had not seen the flaw in Sakura's reasoning

This is basically admitting that she doesn't want this situation to be public knowledge. The only way this really makes sense is if she wanted to take full advantage of it, since this looks a lot like a desperate ploy to save the game from a scum perspective.

Either way, this just feels like a really awkward gambit for town to make.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: RachMarie

Also willing to vote ThAd if he gets more support.

[Ankamius]

Eh.

Shows that writing out why people are not town while thinking about other shit can mix things up in my mind.

[Ankamius]

No pushing a case, no nothing. Just something about how his post was eaten by MS, but since then he's made no attempt to even vaguely recap his reasoning but he apparently felt good about slapping down a vote.

You can't be serious. The scumteam is 100% obvious to me because of basic PoE. The only way pushing a case isn't a waste of time is when I'm likely to get lynched.

So yeah I'm feeling good about slapping down a vote. There's virtually no way Rach and ThAd aren't the scumteam.

[Ankamius]

Ankamius's initial reads pretty much just mirrored popular opinion at the time. The people he picked on were me (lurker), TMT (lurker) and alice (popular wagon).

...and I was the one who was opportunistic?

I'll respond to this tomorrow if we get there.

UNVOTE: Rachmarie
VOTE: ThAdmiral

[Ankamius]

Addendum: I oversimplified my catch-up post and I'd have to go through the thread again to try to remember what about each post gave me those vibes. I don't take notes

I'm also pretty easily distracted.

[Ankamius]

...

Are you still going by the same logic that was terrible the first time you said it?

[Ankamius]

You would have a point if any read I ever had was ever stronger than my town read on Sakura. It was blindingly obvious within the first several pages that this was the case. None of my other reads were remotely that strong at that point, and basically nothing she said throughout the game has changed that. Reads that strong don't flip on a dime.

So I'm basically lost as to what you want me to do here. I could make a case on why Sakura is town, but there's really no point since AFAIK everyone (except maybe one person?) already agrees with me. So why exactly am I scum for not pushing a case? Why am I scum for not recapping my reasoning (which would've been incredibly obvious to anyone who was paying any attention to me whatsoever)? Why am I scum for having a very strong town read?

I don't care about your point of view

Well then.

[Ankamius]

BTW for above, I'm not counting my read on MeowMix because he was dead when I replaced in. Confirming my read biases it.

[Ankamius]

newearth's play was little more than glorified active lurking and Ankamius's initial reads pretty much just mirrored popular opinion at the time. The people he picked on were me (lurker), TMT (lurker) and alice (popular wagon).

...and I was the one who was opportunistic?

Ok, I have enough time to do something so I'll respond to this.

Your reads list was basically crap. RachMarie had very little content up to that point and freezing-hell was lurking his ass off. I could easily see you looking for a freezing-hell lynch for towncred and Rach really was an easy target compared to a lot of the other players. Your other scumreads really didn't make much sense (I was leaning town on Johhog and TMT at that point was on the town side of null).

Sakura Hana was one of the most active people and would be really difficult to lynch if people looked into her more closely, and MeowMix was making good points everywhere and had the most genuine scumhunting of the entire player list. You'd be hard pressed to find a case to lynch either of them, so they were your town reads.

That's how I saw it. Yes, they looked really opportunistic. That combined with Monty's play gave me a solid scumread on your slot.

Alice just looked like scum and I have no idea what you're talking about with TMT. My three null reads were essentially the same with only mild degrees of separation.

[Ankamius]

newearth's play was little more than glorified active lurking and Ankamius's initial reads pretty much just mirrored popular opinion at the time. The people he picked on were me (lurker), TMT (lurker) and alice (popular wagon).

...and I was the one who was opportunistic?

Ok, I have enough time to do something so I'll respond to this.

Your reads list was basically crap. RachMarie had very little content up to that point and freezing-hell was lurking his ass off. I could easily see you looking for a freezing-hell lynch for towncred and Rach really was an easy target compared to a lot of the other players. Your other scumreads really didn't make much sense (I was leaning town on Johhog and TMT at that point was on the town side of null).

Sakura Hana was one of the most active people and would be really difficult to lynch if people looked into her more closely, and MeowMix was making good points everywhere and had the most genuine scumhunting of the entire player list. You'd be hard pressed to find a case to lynch either of them, so they were your town reads.

That's how I saw it. Yes, they looked really opportunistic. That combined with Monty's play gave me a solid scumread on your slot.

Alice just looked like scum and I have no idea what you're talking about with TMT. My three null reads were essentially the same with only mild degrees of separation.

You didn't say my reads were crap, you specifically called them "opportunistic" which I think is bizarre since none of my scum reads were in any kind of danger of being lynched at that point.

Your reads

were

opportunistic because the people at the scum end were either lurkers who probably weren't going to defend themselves very well or popular targets and the people at the town end were town by popular consensus anyway.

And TMT was third in your scum list (you can assign whatever separation you want at this point). That's what I'm talking about.

No, your reads were crap

because

they were opportunistic.

Your TMT point still makes no sense whatsoever. The line breaks are there to separate Scum-Null-Town reads. He was not a significant scum read or he would've been in the scum list, so why exactly are you saying I had him as a significant scum read?

You're deliberately making things up as justification.

[Ankamius]

Whatever, apply what ridiculous justification you want to my reads. Won't change the fact that you're completely wrong.

You say your scum reads weren't in danger of being lynched, then basically say that I'm going for easy targets even though only one person (TMT) was going to really vote for you at that point (Kerberos HEAVILY wanted a ThAd lynch more), and TMT actually had a more town-based collective read.

Oh, did I mention that freezing-hell and RachMarie were both essentially lurking?

So yeah, your analysis is really bad.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ankamius

[Ankamius]

The only way this could've gone worse was if ThAd didn't investigate Kerberos N1.

Scum died N1, everyone else who died except for Kerberos was VT, then the two people I was planning on pushing for a mislynch both ended up being confirmed town.

Really frustrating since I was starting to feel good about our chances at the start of D3.

[Ankamius]

I legit thought TMT was Thad's remaining partner until the claim. tough luck ank, you basically got caught solely through PoE :c

Pretty much. I would've had a good chance of winning even if ThAd was lynched if there weren't 2 confirmed town in D3 (or if Sakura was one of them).

[Ankamius]

Self-hammering was also a last ditch effort to try to salvage the game >_> I played D3 to make my partner as ambiguous as possible, so I wanted to prevent RW from getting Rach's lynch post since that was likely to confirm her town.

[Ankamius]

I don't really like this set-up in general. I've played a 9p version of this set-up around a year ago and the scum-team stood no chance there either (although the situation was slightly different as a mafia fakeclaimed JK and ended up dying, then the second scum got JKed). It just looks very swingy.

Honestly, giving the goon a one-shot bulletproof vest (or one-shot

activatable

vest) sounds like the best option to me. If freezing-hell had ended up surviving N1, we would've had a much better chance to get through the rest of the game without having too many cleared townies to handle. I don't think it would imbalance the game a whole lot, and it would give a bit more ambiguity as to how there's only one kill a night.

I strongly disagree that a scum should be able to use their abilities and a kill at the same time, since that just completely overpowers them if they manage to get the JK ability very quickly. Town would have a pretty difficult time if the scum don't make themselves obvious.

Back-up not knowing their role is really iffy to me too, but mainly because I'm really iffy on giving town power that they aren't aware of. I know I'd be pretty annoyed if I claimed townie and ended up flipping a power role.

Meh, I could just as easily be butthurt and trying to justify it.

...Then again, we used our night actions as optimally as we could have.

[Ankamius]

Also, yes, thanks for modding, Antagon. The game flow was very well done.

[Ankamius]

Danke

[Ankamius]

Damn I didn't know it was yours too

Happy Bday Sakura