Open 498: Fire and Ice Mafia (Game Over)

[BROseidon]

VOTE: Mala

Are you scum again?

[BROseidon]

If not, I'm fairly confident that I can recognize BRO's towngame, meaning my next vote with have an 80% chance of hitting scum with no mistakes, 60% chance with one mistake.

Baroo? What makes you confident that you can read my town game?

I like Mala's posts so far. She is handling the votes on her well and she's trying to be productive So, despite her name (cats are bad, evil cats are worse), I think Mala is town. This feels very different from my experience with scum Mala (granted, that experience is very limited). Also like Boro's posts, for reasons Dreams has already articulated. Also like Dreams's big post, even if I think some of what he's posted is a bit of a stretch.

VOTE: Dry-fit is probably the best place for my vote to be right now.

[BROseidon]

What do you guys think of hawk? Do his concerns look more or less forced than commando's?

[BROseidon]

Define "forced".

DoG used the phrase, so maybe he thinks of it differently, but I would define "forced" follows: like he's feigning concern because that's what a townie would do.

[BROseidon]

Gyah, don't like what Mort is doing, but I doubt scum would be that stupid early. Still like my vote on Dry.

[BROseidon]

Obviously that can't be meta, but yeah, I usually treat VIs as town, at least early on.

[BROseidon]

Rereading now. Will post presently.

[BROseidon]

@Bro:

How am I an evil cat? ):

You're name (realized I never answered this lol)

(or possibly fire/ice mafia later in the game)

Why would scum claim scum? Is there a theory point with this setup I should be aware of?

Okay, still like my vote on Dry. Also not liking Commando.

Like Mala, DoG, and UCit for town. Morton is VI, so he's in my townpile unless his stupid starts seeming scum motivated.

[BROseidon]

Did what felt off about Kami feel scum motivated to you, Mala?

[BROseidon]

Such as Nacho's biggest suspect is Bro

Nowhere does Nacho state this. He states that he can read my towngame well and that he has his eye on me. Why the misrep?

[BROseidon]

Nope you're a very strong scumread and I would love to lynch you.

Good to know. Brb will reread and townflail now.

[BROseidon]

Also Nacho/Mantis can you guys pls sign your posts I'm getting off vibes on reread and I'm not sure if it's because I'm reading them all as Nacho so the Mantis stuff seems off or if it's because you're actually scum.

[BROseidon]

God I don't have the energy to start charting interactions right now.

Still like Dry for scum, although I don't really see anything from his ISO that would indicate a scumpartner. Scum partner in Dry scum case would not be Guille or mvmafia and probs on dragonfly.

@Dry can you give a full list of reads?

Mvmafia's entrance was not good. Not enough from the slot to try to discern potential scumpartners, beyond a probable not-mala (who is already a townread for me)

Mort is erratic as fuck, but I don't think he's scum. On the off-chance I'm wrong, I'm still confident that he's not partners with dragonfly, mvmafia, mala, or dry.

@Boro can you provide your own reads at some point? You seem keen to ask questions about things, but you aren't providing any analysis of your own. Would like to see more insight from you.

@Commando do you really have no reads on anyone at this point? Yes, there is plenty of information out there at this point, try to discern what is scum-motivated and what is town-motivated.

@Mala I haven't played with Mantis before and have no way of telling apart his style. Is sort of a problem.

[BROseidon]

Dat opportunism. Looking for a reason to push an easy lynch?

VOTE: dragonfly

[BROseidon]

Yeah can the people not on wagons get on a viable wagon please. Preferably the dfly one.

[BROseidon]

Woohoo, time to play "ISO the dead scum"

Atm, I'm more inclined to cast suspicion on those not posting than those who are. Town have more of a reason to get talking early, and from my limited mafia experience day one lynch is usually wrong and usually results from two town fighting with each other.

Second Ice scum was probably fairly active up to this point.

DoG has done this as well, moreso. 6 votes for 6 different people. I know he said this is his kind of approach but there is being an attack dog and there is spraying votes about while trying to look town. I'd like to see more pressure on him, but I still have a scum feeling about Dry so I'm happy with my vote for the moment.

Having said that, there is a lot to like about the commando wagon as well. Five posts, one vote. Been v/la and is now back, any closer to some analysis?

DoG and Commando cleared from being second ice scum.

a bit too keen to get on that wagon mala?

Unlike the other posts, this one feels like it could be a bit of distancing. However, I do have a townread on Mala. Just leaving this here in case that read changes.

dragonfly has responded oddly to both mala and myself now. and anyone suggesting that someone would be protecting their scum partner is surely barking up the wrong tree, you can imagine scum trying to save buddies when they have one team but with 2x 2 scum it would be pretty much impossible to save your buddy without bringing attention to yourself.

This is important. My gut says to take this as he's not protecting his partner, which would make sense given that Boro didn't give any townreads whatsoever. Only scumreads.

Scum:

1 Dryfit
2 dragonfly
3 DOG

Oh look 1 and 2 weren't his scumbuddy. 3 isn't either.

Okay, Boro's play pattern was pretty clear. He was trying to aggressively scumhunt while not leaving behind any townreads off of which people could discern a partner. The quote about Mala is a little strange, but I'm willing to buy that Mala isn't the second ice scum for now based more on a townread of her than off of the associative tell. DoG and Commando are clear, here.

Going through the first 100 posts for activity, I noticed two things. First, it's interesting that Boro jumped on Dry for bandwagoning, but not morton. However, morton isn't active after that, which makes me think that Boro's buddy is someone else. Second, the two that stick out for activity that Boro didn't go after were Cheery and Guille. Neither of them were on the dragonfly wagon, although I'm not sure if that is a positive or negative as far as associative tells go (innate distancing via different voting records vs. townpoints for scumhunting).

Cheery actually interacts with Boro is in iso, Guille doesn't. I think Guille is our best bet for a Boro scumbuddy.

VOTE: Guille

Hawk/dragon ISOs have less shit. Can't discern much of anything from hawk's iso. From dragonfly's, I don't think morton is scumbuddy with him (thus morton is town), nor do I think mala is scumbuddy with him, nor do I think mvmafia is scumbuddy with him. If I default remove everyone from the wagon as well (should have done this first, really), that leaves...

Cheery and Guille...

Cheery does have the strange interaction at the start with hawk which could have been setting up a later bus, but I'm not nearly as confident about this. Maybe commando or ucitron bussed on day 1? Does that happen a lot in this setup?

Either way, I am very confident that I've hit scum.

[BROseidon]

@Mala: Fairly confident with my read on DoG. I was already town reading him, and he was the first person on the dragonfly wagon and Boro went after him. He's town.

And yes, that is the reason for my vote of him over Cheery. Cheery was willing to engage with Boro and converse with him, whereas Boro and Guille pretty much ignored each other. Based on one of the things I quoted (about scum not defending each other), I think that Boro was trying to push scumreads while ignoring his scumbuddy. Guille fits that.

I can note I don't see DoG as a scum buddy of Boro, but on a whole another level of Bro's.

Eh? What does this even mean?

[BROseidon]

Okay. So you agree with me for different reasons.

Now tell me who you think is scum.

[BROseidon]

mvmafia who are your ice mafia scumspects?

[BROseidon]

Anyway I can't see guille being the remaining ice goon due to starting interactions with boro being too in yourface buddying - or him wanting to actually kill Dry-fit.

So would you like me calling you Boro's scumbuddy more?

[BROseidon]

I'm still okay with a Guille lynch, and if he flips town we can just lynch Cheery next.

[BROseidon]

Nice job at lining up lynches. *claps*

Do you disagree with my reasoning that one of Guille or Cheery is Boro's partner?

I think you do. Who do you think are better candidates for his partner?

[BROseidon]

Mala, can you point out why my reasoning for wanting Guille lynched is flawed, or are you going to just keep insisting that he is town while making no effort to actually convince anyone of it?

DoG why the vote switch?

[BROseidon]

I would post intent to hammer but there is already an intent to hammer.

So 2x intent to hammer. Want a claim from Cheery. Don't really care about what jilynne has to say and it's strange that she's so insistent that we wait for her to post. Not sure what to make of that, though. Will sleep on it.

[BROseidon]

Hawk/dragon ISOs have less shit.

but I'm really confused as to why he only isoed one of the dead scums at the start of the day.

Can you misrep less blatantly and try to have a real case that isn't OMGUS driven?

Somewhat confusing who he knows is scum and who he is attacking and calling scum.

This point is hilariously weak because of the tibetan mastiff that is my forum avatar. Try again, with less blatant OMGUS this time.

Or we could just lynch the caught scum. That works too.

[BROseidon]

Oh right you aren't at L-1 anymore. Thanks for reminding me.

VOTE: Cheery Dog

[BROseidon]

Wow I'm an idiot. Shouldn't post while I'm tired.

Whatever, still think you're scum.

[BROseidon]

DoG did you do reading during the night phase that would push you towards Commando over Jilyene, since you said you had your eye on both of them?

[BROseidon]

VOTE: Guille

Post something to make me think you're town bro.

[BROseidon]

Guille seems to have largely gone awol and that is disconcerting to me. I'll check his site activity when I'm less tired.

[BROseidon]

I feel like Mala got shot b/c she was a universal town read. Scum probably would never have been able to push a mislynch onto her, so one of them decided that shooting her was the best solution.

[BROseidon]

BROSeidon tell me what is wrong with the scenario

4. You try to kill me at night

That would require me to have a nightkill. That is what is wrong with the scenario

[BROseidon]

My hammer was me letting Cheery goad me into voting for him while not noticing he was at L-1 (I misread some shit and was basically falling asleep at the keyboard at the time). It's cute that you think you bringing up me as a scumspect would cause me to panic, given that you're far from the first person this game to suspect me.

[BROseidon]

Sorry, been busy and other games have been taking up a lot of time. Will have a real post later today.

[BROseidon]

So, Bro, take me back to Day 2. You come out of the gates against Guille and get a wagon going on him. Now through my read I'd say Guille is my strongest townread and I had to do a double take when I saw that. Why was he scum then, and what's your feeling about that now?

The argument I gave was a primarily associative argument based on Boro's postings. Basically, I made some assumptions based on what Boro posted about who he partner would be (stuff about what he said about lurkers, how he interacted with people, etc), and it came down to Guille being his most likely scumpartner with Cheery being second most likely. I didn't look at any of Guille's posting when I did that, though, which was the biggest weakness of my argument. I still think there is a very strong chance of Guillescum, and his lack of posting this dayphase furhter supports that.

[BROseidon]

if that's really what you want to ride, then i'll buy it, but a guile flip is pretty much the end of broseidon.

How does a Guille flip end me, exactly?

[BROseidon]

uct, didn't you call my wall incredibly town?

[BROseidon]

uct, t-bone, and guille, can you guys put your votes somewhere useful, because otherwise I'll just jump on the mvm wagon to get the lynch.

[BROseidon]

So you're case is that I had a bad hammer, and then a shitton of conjecture that nobody is attached to (which, by the way, includes the doctor).

You're case is shit.

pedit: woohoo let's play WIFOM. If I were scum, I would have not killed you because killing you would make me look bad.

Now can we stop with the shitty WIFOM and lynch scum?

[BROseidon]

Also Mala and DoG have stated at various points how dead they have wanted me, so it's not like you're the only person to have had a scumread on me all game.

[BROseidon]

Hawk/dragon ISOs have less shit. Can't discern much of anything from hawk's iso. From dragonfly's, I don't think morton is scumbuddy with him (thus morton is town), nor do I think mala is scumbuddy with him, nor do I think mvmafia is scumbuddy with him. If I default remove everyone from the wagon as well (should have done this first, really), that leaves...

Cheery and Guille...

Cheery does have the strange interaction at the start with hawk which could have been setting up a later bus, but I'm not nearly as confident about this. Maybe commando or ucitron bussed on day 1? Does that happen a lot in this setup?

Either way, I am very confident that I've hit scum.

Except I did the other ISO.

You're argument is bad and you should feel bad.

[BROseidon]

Why not me?

Because having a shitty case is null. Latching onto a shitty case is scummy.

[BROseidon]

And you wonder why people think you're scum. You say things like that.

Because there is no scum motivation in trying to stall out a no-lynch. Wait...

[BROseidon]

Guille...

One scum would know who they targeted, and know that person was protected by the doc (unless one scum did not submit an action which would be pretty wtf).

[BROseidon]

also

VOTE: mvmafia

Since Guille is townread by enough people that this lynch isn't happening.

[BROseidon]

>:C

[BROseidon]

guille2015, a Fire Mafia goon has been killed Night Five!
BoroPhil, an Ice Mafia goon has been killed Night Five!

I think you have a typo here.

Fixed; thanks!

Also good game all around. AND I WAS RIGHT ABOUT GUILLE GOD DAMMIT WHY DID YOU GUYS DERAIL THAT LYNCH.

[BROseidon]

I drew up a massive case against Guille that had associative tells with BOTH dead scum

But yeah we had both scum on the ropes and let them off. That was just silly.

And I'm honestly surprised that the save was actually successfully on you. I had thought it had been on DoG.