Open 495: Slimey Near Vanilla GAMEOVER

[DCLXVI]

Don't go to sleep on me

[DCLXVI]

Wait, so no one died again? Well, that certainly is interesting.

Oh, and it looks like sd was town. I would never have seen that coming

[DCLXVI]

RD, Dr who, and nsc are not being lynched today.

Raven bulb lng pasch and nominul are acceptable options.

[DCLXVI]

which may or may not exist)

I was just beginning to wonder myself.

[DCLXVI]

There wasn't any way Pasch was going to get lynched unless someone swapped over to him which was extremely unlikely. Also, SD never comes on MS in the morning (I went through his recent posts to confirm that) A lynch had to happen and I wasn't going to let the day end without a lynch.

[DCLXVI]

VOTE: Paschendale

The smart choice.

Anyway if you wanna bus SD I'm all for it, but don't think you'll get my neck as compensation.

VOTE: SafetyDance

Explain.

[DCLXVI]

Why did your for stay on SD after the intend to hammer?

[DCLXVI]

Wait, but if pasch was the compromise and you really wanted SD lynched why were you threatening to hammer pasch.

[DCLXVI]

Well you also weren't getting shit for calling pasch town.

[DCLXVI]

No comment, rbd don't answer.

[DCLXVI]

didn't mean to dub that over the last post Dx

How many hours did we have to submit night actions last night?

[DCLXVI]

Loll that was meant to be a pm. Theslimer had given a specific numbers of hours for the night... Did anyone notice what it was?

[DCLXVI]

Fuck.

Pasch, why are you doing this to me? That is an excellent post I want to call you town but damn I want to suspect you too.

[DCLXVI]

@DC: Did you protect Rach again?

@RBD: If you were scum in this scenario, would the optimal move be to target the same PR every night, or to try to outguess them/alternate?

I'm trying to figure things out DC. If scum are trying to alternate in some way, then my hypothesis is shot, but if the optimal play is to target the same PR night after night, then that effects things greatly read-wise.

Because if scum would target the same PR for death every single night, then we caught scum and let her go. If not, then it doesn't matter. RBD, if town, has a good analytical mind when it comes to optimal scum play. I trust his opinion on the matter, plus I think his answer will help solidify my read on him.

@Bulb

I don't want to give actual answers to what I did last night yet. I'm still thinking.

Let's do this hypothetically.

Scenario 1. I targeted RM, Scenario two I targeted ABC. Give your opinions of what should happen/what it means in either situation.

...............

The reason I don't want other people to answer is it poisens the well so to speak for other questions I may want to ask.

[DCLXVI]

@RM I would like to know your own scumreads.

[DCLXVI]

@no one in particular

Why do players I have townreads on proceed to do scummy things and vice versa.

I also just realized I have been in this game for over two months...such a weird thought.

[DCLXVI]

Ok, nominul was my target night 4.

Have at it.

[DCLXVI]

The debate over evidence/proof definitions is stupid.

[DCLXVI]

I'm not sold on that at the moment.

[DCLXVI]

I'm not sold on him being scum.

[DCLXVI]

Why not

Cause my ego wants me to believe that at least one of raven and nominul are scum.

[DCLXVI]

@Drwho, Paschendale, rainbowdash

your thoughts on nominul and raven.

[DCLXVI]

Dr. Who, rbd is town. As bulba noted you are wrong about the posting thing.

[DCLXVI]

No, he does not need to swing and will not be anytime soon.

[DCLXVI]

RD, NSC, Dr Who, are not getting lynched.

[DCLXVI]

No. He's done quite a few things I don't think he would have done as scum. However, I don't feel like elaborating on what they are at the moment.

[DCLXVI]

I really hadn't made up my mind on who exactly I wanted to lynch but I think this does it for me.

VOTE: Nominull

Cheers! I feel like an idiot for spending hours going over the backlog for this thread, you would just let the scum summarize anything I posted about it anyway.

vote:nominul

Seriously though, if you are town, I'm blacklisting you.

[DCLXVI]

No comment on what I did last night.

But for the record, we would have to mis-lynch three straight times to lose

[DCLXVI]

well maybe either myself or scum didn't make the 'correct' play in order to out wifom the other.

[DCLXVI]

I really hadn't made up my mind on who exactly I wanted to lynch but I think this does it for me.

VOTE: Nominull

Cheers! I feel like an idiot for spending hours going over the backlog for this thread, you would just let the scum summarize anything I posted about it anyway.

vote:nominul

Seriously though, if you are town, I'm blacklisting you.

Blacklist me for getting fed up with this bullshit? Get over yourself. Your play has been terrible and you deserve to lose.

And finally, lolz at butt hurt scum.

I actually don't blame you that much, I'd be pissed if I couldn't get a single kill by day 5.

[DCLXVI]

I hope not, because if you JKed non-RM

a no kill is who you lynch

and its a fairly strong town tell if a kill did happen.

Scum probably all in LnG/DW/Pasch at this point

Something is missing.

[DCLXVI]

:palmface:

you are not getting it.

[DCLXVI]

lolz

[DCLXVI]

Dr. Who is town.

Let's just actually try and think this through for a second. I called Dr. Who town since day one and have continued to do so. So if Dr. Who was scum 'who' do you think the scumteam would send to do the kill since there is a town jailor? Maybe night 1 scum may have thought I could have been bluffing about townreads in order to be able to jail one of those players successfully (something I wish I had though of doing, (or maybe I did muahaha)), but I find that unlikely.

So the fact is that on nights 1,4 and 5 (and yes RD I know mafia theory well enough know the right move to make in this situation(that and I'm a selfish bastard who wants to live)) I did not target RM. So in theory, scum dr who would have submitted the kill. Are you telling me that he targeted me on each of those nights when there wasn't a kill when the logically assumption is that Raven/nominul/player blocked night 5 did the kill, cause if one of those players submitted the kill than that is basically proof that Dr. Who is NOT scum.

tldr, just fucking trust me on this ok?

[DCLXVI]

logically -> logical

[DCLXVI]

So in other words there are two options

Dr. Who is scum and likely submitted every scum kill.
At least one of Raven/Nomi null/player blocked night 5 submitted a kill and I blocked it.

I find the latter option much more likely especially since nominul flipped scum.

.................
@RM of course you were going to target me every night, doing anything else would have been stupid.

However, scum could have actually targeted me since if I roleblocked you I would be open to being targetted (and since I did roleblock you nights 2-3 that pretty much means that it would have been a good choice for scum to target me those nights.

[DCLXVI]

You didn't refute my post at all.

[DCLXVI]

Dr who is town and is not being lynched ever.

[DCLXVI]

My argument isn't really that wifomy, scum desperately need to kill, they are going to send the player which is under the least suspicion.

The fact that there is an extremely good chance that I targeted scum making a kill does basically prove that Dr who is town.

[DCLXVI]

And the SD lynch turned out real nice didn't it...

[DCLXVI]

I am seriously not letting someone I have town read all game get lynched, especially when there is basically proof that that player is town.

[DCLXVI]

How about you actually address my argument instead of dismissing it as wifom.

[DCLXVI]

I was AGAINST the SD lynch too in case you forgot.

The point is is that when someone who is confirmed town is strongly arguing against a lynch, it just might be wise to not lynch that player.

[DCLXVI]

Just because you JK someone and there is no kill does not mean that you stopped the killer, since we have 2 protective roles it can also mean that scum targeted you, like I've been trying to tell you guys already.

I'm not stupid.

Now that that is our of the way...

Three times I targeted someone other than rm and there wasn't a kill I think there is a extremely good chance that one of those nights I blocked scum making a kill. Of course I don't think it was every night, but just one night would be proof enough of Dr who being town.

[DCLXVI]

Nsc your argument is bad.

It is clear that you really don't understand my case. I'll explain more clearly tomorrow when Im on APC.

[DCLXVI]

Oh, and I targeted pasch last night.

Food for thought.

[DCLXVI]

I have three scumreads, the fact that two of them are voting dr who is making that wagon look even less appealing than it already is.

[DCLXVI]

The facts.

1. Scums only power is the nightkill
2. Scum want the nightkill to go through, a no-kill does not benefit them
3. I am a jailor
4. I was strongly (and publicly) townreading dr who all game. I had expressed either a scum read and or null read on nominul all game.

Conclusion:

Because scum need a nightkill and their is a blocking role in the game they are going to send the player that is least likely to be blocked.

I do not see how this is not logical. Is this 100%? Of course not, but it is incredibly likely to be true.

Calling this just wifom is completely silly. There is no benefit for scum to send a scummy (and therefor likely to be targeted) player to send in the nightkill when there is a roleblocker.

So in other words, this isn't wifom, this is common sense and working with the assumption that scum posses some of it. (and let's be honest, no one expected me to be alive this long so I highly doubt there were planning ahead and thinking 'oh let's send nominul or pasch or raven instead of Dr. Who so the doctor can get towncred), cause that scenario is just plain absurd.

Nightkill options

1. Dr who is scum and submitted all of them (possibly not night 1 though I would tend to think dr who would have done that one as scum) and targeted me nights 1,4,5
2. Dr who is town and one of Raven/nominul/pasch submitted a nightkill on nights 1,4 or 5
3. Dr. who is town and mafia targeted me on 1,4 and 5.

I very firmly believe that I at least stopped one kill by targeting the scum making a kill. (Four is most likely, then five and one.) If this is true then it means that Dr. Who, RD, and to a lesser extent not science are all cleared because since I had called them town then they would have been extremely more likely to have submitted a nightkill.

If you think dr who is scum you need to believe that scenario 1 is true and that scenario two is false.

Reads:

Town for ever and ever for all eternity (a.k.a. do not ever lynch)
RD
Dr. Who

Leaning town with slight doubts.
Not Science
Bulba

Scum (no particular order).
Pasch
lng
Raven

[DCLXVI]

tldr, get the fuck off of dr who right now

[DCLXVI]

Also, not too much offense DCL, but at this point I think town should just look at whoever you and Rainbow call scum, and then clear them as town

That's a fucking bad idea.

I had SD as town, and nominul as scum. Which means my last two lynch reads were correct. My reads get much better as the game progresses.

[DCLXVI]

Do you really think that Raven and I were both bussing Paschendale, and neither of us jumped to the "easier" lynch in SD?

raven and you can't both bus pasch cause in that scenario there would be four scum.

[DCLXVI]

His own VCA. I'm town, Raven's town. That means the one scum on the wagon (which by his own VCA he says there is one) is him.

I've played with town Raven before and this feels like town Raven.

Please stop being stupid.

There is a very good chance of scum being on a town wagon. There is a much smaller chance of scum being on a scum wagon.

p.s. there was one scum on the wagon actually.

[DCLXVI]

I think dr who's analysis is both an easy way to get town points for "doing work" and also a lazy way to jump on to the hiraki wagon.
I put it to you, sir, that you are scum with nominull.

Not a soul has voted me. Why do I need town points?

I'm not scum, pretty sure nominull isn't.

@DCL, do you think this post from Who is coming a town or scum mindset?

I could find one quote from every living player that looks like it is coming from a scum mindset. That kind of cherry picking seems pointless.

[DCLXVI]

but that answer, without going and looking at the context of the post is yes, it looks a little scummy because he is calling nominul town, but there are much better reasons (besides even the nightkill analysis) that he is town.

Pedit, nope, not scummy.

[DCLXVI]

It looked more like a failed attempt at being funny than anything scummy, its just null, mostly because its insignificant.

[DCLXVI]

in response to 2381

a lol i got voted is not anywhere near as defensive as a bunch of massive paragraphs, that is not apples and oranges, it's broccoli and watermelon that you are trying to compare.

Also, I'm in the process of gathering all the posts from the good doctor which I think show townthinking.

[DCLXVI]

dr. who stuff that I like, no I am not providing an annotated version.

Spoiler:

Open question regarding the setup: Should the jailer claim? I think the Jailer should claim.

Advantages

If there is a counterclaim, then we know one of them is scum.

If there is no counterclaim, the Doc should protect said jailkeeper. Assuming the jailer doesn't jail the doc, a confirmed townie is protected at night. We would also be looking at 13 players as scum instead of 14.

If there is no kill, the jailer can tell us who was protected. Scum can miss deadlines, so this isn't 100%.

If the jailer does not claim, there is no guarantee that the jailer would effectively jail, this guarantees we get some return on the ability.

Disadvantages

Once the Doc is gone, the Jailer will get NK'd (unless he jails the scumbag doing the kill).

@everyone

I still think that the jailer should claim. I am not fishing for power roles, I'm looking for ways to help town win and part of that is thinking outside of the box.

If a scum counters, sure there is a 50% chance of losing a power role, sure, but 100% of the scum need to die. The faster they die, the better trail we have for hunting the other two.

If slimey mods like the last guy modded, the scum haven't had a chance to talk via quicktopic yet. If you think this could be done at all, today is the day to do it before they get a chance to talk and decide which one fakeclaims.

One more thing to chew on - as scum have you ever falseclaimed a town power role to expose said role? If I was scum, I'd fakeclaim jailer in a heartbeat at L-1. My point is that the jailer might have to claim anyway and we'd be in the same position but it would be on town terms (Day 1, no one claiming at L-1, Doc still around).

Rach & 666

Can you please refrain from driving the discussion for a while? As confirmed town your opinion should and will carry more weight. By letting the rest of us come up with opinions first, there is more info for the town.

I would not have revealed the Jk target immediately either.

Does this make sense?

VOTE: vote Hiraki

Also think it would be funny if Hiraki submitted the kill on 666, since he'd be twice foiled.

@ dr who: why is nominull not in your list of suspects even though your stance re: me and hiraki indicates you think people that get on lots of bandwagons are scum?

Do you not also think that the data is sort of skewed when you consider that there were three quick bandwagons right at the end of the day due to people claiming and everyone moving on to someone else? In my case in particular do you not think it is natural that I would vote against my competing wagon?

Regardless of anything else, however, do you not think it is simplistic to suggest that throwing votes around is an inherently scum tactic?

This paragraph addresses a few of your points. All but one of the large Day 1 bandwagons were on town (and Varsoon could still be town). Given this important detail, I think it is likely that the scum would have been happy to get on the wagons (and out power roles). Voting/bandwagoning is scummy when it turns out that someone's votes gravitated all towards town especially when the town has power roles. It is unusual to have so this much information about Day 1 wagons on Day 2, but if you've got it use it.

Voting aside, my read on Nominal has been strong pro-town. I had reads on you and Hiraki before looking at the votes. I also think it is unlikely that all of the scum piled on all of the wagons, and am also on the lookout for possible lurker scum (like Nic) and Pash (wasn't on any significant wagons). I don't look at just one thing.

I think the three quick bandwagons at the end would further entice scum since we know that they were all on town, and started to be led by confirmed town.

Your wagon peaked at 4 votes, or L-4, in post 925. Your vote made it fuzzy 4, ThAd 4 (Rach was at 4, but she had claimed). I don't think it is unusual to vote for a competing wagon, except that at one point you said something to the effect of "well its time to lynch me".

Let's make this official.

VOTE: LnGrrrR

What's your case for Lingerrr as scum?

What pushed me over the edge is how he started Day 3.

I also noticed a tendency to constanty ask for someone's suspect lists. It seemed like a way to look pro-town, but then he hasn't seemed to do much with it.

For all his talk about looking into voting, his voting is interesting. Day 1 he had 5 votes and 2 unvotes, then Day 2 it was like pulling teeth to get him to vote. He only made one vote, on mothrax.

I'll ISO him soon.

ThAd, if you really are town then I hope you follow up to the point that it is revealed I am town.

Who are your other suspects?

I will lynch any of SD/Pasch/DW/Nom/LNG today. Put any at L-1 and I will hammer. Game is better with any of them dead right now as we lose bad town or scum.

Really? Here is the Thad lynch.

Day 3: 7 votes required out of 12 players - Deadline countdown is maybe July 7th to July 12th?; updated through post 1584
Name____________Count___Voters (Post)
ThAdmiral________7______NicCage (1396), notscience (1548), Nominull (1564), Safety Dance (1571), Doctor Who (1575), Paschendale (1582), DCLXVI (1584)
LnGrrrR__________1______Rainbowdash (1416)
NicCage__________1______LnGrrrR (1388)
no vote__________1______ThAdmiral
Nominull_________1______Ravenpaw (1410)
Safety Dance_____1______RachMarie (1489)

How do you go from willing to lynch everyone on ThAd's wagon (assuming you won't lynch 666) to lynching everyone but NicCage, who was all over ThAd? Also, LnG wasn't even on the ThAd wagon, notscience was.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

That is an incredibly stupid vote.

So RD accidentally leaves someone off a list and you take that as a reason to vote her?



don't do this to me guys

Disagree. RD throws mud at an entire bandwagon, then can't even correctly list the 6 non-confirmed who are on it.

What are your thoughts on the fact that there have been no night kills?

Luck. There is no optimal strategy.

How do you go from willing to lynch everyone on ThAd's wagon (assuming you won't lynch 666) to lynching everyone but NicCage, who was all over ThAd? Also, LnG wasn't even on the ThAd wagon, notscience was.

Because I blame the quicklynch on those who actually put five vote on a wagon in under 12 hours under no deadline pressure when both the wagonee and the one who was defending them are not around. SD is just a derp as is Nom, Pasch DW and DCL should know better than to do what they did though so im just really on edge and jittery here when the one player I would MAJORLY go to bat for gets quicklynched.

I would probably hammer NC if he was annoying me when he got put at L-1. Notsci I still just have a residual town read of but they really need to stop sheeping other bad players and either start doing things for themselves or at least sheep competent players/confirmed town.

I just... what part of a lynch that happens in 44 POSTS with NO DEADLINE PRESSURE would make any of you think it could be a scum lynch? Really what part? This is one of the first times ive at all wanted out of a game just due to the pure idiocracy of what has to be at least a few town. Just everything leading up to and including the lynch was just him looking town again and again.

Im thinking scum will be

One of: SD/Pasch
Two of: NC/LNG/Raven/DW

Nom is just way to dumb to be scum. Varsoon has played like I have seen him every game as town. Not nearly as sure of those as I was Thad but im in a bit of a "screw you all" mode over what happened yesterday.

I looked at you in ISO, I'm buying this as genuine town frustration.

UNVOTE: RD

Dr. Who, rbd is town. As bulba noted you are wrong about the posting thing.

Agree to disagree then.

@Drwho, Paschendale, rainbowdash

your thoughts on nominul and raven.

I've stated before that Raven & nominull's fighting has been like a married couple, and could be a ploy to distance from each other. It is also noteworty that they have never been on the same lynch together. The only one Raven was on was mothrax, that was the only one Nominull wasn't on. It wouldn't surprise me if both were scum.

Of the remaining players, Nominull was on most of the significant Day 1 wagons (I still think that scum would be outing power roles). LNG, Raven, and RD were on the next most (4).

On my JK plan, confirmed town were for and against it. I'm starting to think that not having an opinion was scummier than being against it (Nominull has talked a lot about numbers, but didn't comment on the mathematical superiority of lynching scum 3/10 day 1 instead of 3/11). (This is also an outstanding question Raven had of me.)

Nominull's first post of Day 4 struck me as scummy. The "blew it" part sounded to me like apologizing for messing up the NK. As for a fast run up on ThAd, it should come as no surprise in this game since it tends towards quickwagons. Nom didn't apologize for lynching town the other two times.

I blew it, sorry guys. But dang, that was a fast run-up after I went back on ThAdmiral. I placed the vote and then next time I checked it was night. Dr. Who was already kinda on him and DCL is conf town, but SafetyDance and Paschendale are good bets for scum.

VOTE: SafetyDance

Speaking of Raven, I thought this was scummy. Hunting implies

killing

your

prey

.

I disagree with this so much. Townhunting is just as beneficial as scumhunting is.

townHUNTING?!?!?

Raven has the added bonus of being one of two non-confirmed on the Day 1 Rach L-1 wagon (lead by JK claimed 666). The other being notscience. I was on that wagon also (first vote before 666 went after her, but I know I'm town). It is highly unlikely that a Day 1 bandwagon (lead by conf town) with 7 votes would have no scum on it.

Looking over Raven's posts, she asks a lot of questions which gives the impression of scumhunting but doesn't seem to do anything with it (variant of info instead of analysis).

UNVOTE: RainbowDash

VOTE: RavenPaw

Quite the about face from this

I'm gonna go back and dig through the 80 pages because today is probably crucial.

In the meantime, VOTE: Bulbazak. I could understand if you said "it's because he was blocked* on a night with no kill and yes I do actually think he's otherwise scummier than Ravenpaw", but this other stuff you're bringing out makes it look like you're going into a frenzy after smelling blood in the water.


*Yes, "blocked". The suspicious part is that I was blocked, not that I was protected. The fact that I was protected on a night with no kill tends to exculpate me, in fact. But we've already done the math here.

To this

VOTE: Nominull

Cheers! I feel like an idiot for spending hours going over the backlog for this thread, you would just let the scum summarize anything I posted about it anyway.

I expect 666 to come in with a hammer.

That said, at some point the scum might finally off someone. It would be best for 666 & Rach to post thoughts before going into night.

[DCLXVI]

@DCL, feel free to point out those reasons. Which posts do you think makes him definitely townie?

PEDIT: Also, I think you've got blinders on. Apart from Who saying, "I'm scum!" I think you're inclined to see him with townglasses.

actually, last night I first chose to block Dr. Who, something felt off, but then I re-read him (and a ton of other stuff) and chose pasch. I spent like 4-5 hours monday re-reading and other stuff.

and btw,

vote:pasch

Seriously, if we lynch through pasch, lng, raven we will for sure hit one scum and likely two and end this game.

[DCLXVI]

DCL you're acting like our luck will never run out, which is bullshit. Who says we have 2 mislynches left?

I say we have three mislynches left because we have 9 players and two scum.

[DCLXVI]

and why the hell do you think raven is town.

[DCLXVI]

She has good points, her reads progress throughout the game,

She asks questions and actually goes for answers and keeps asking if they don't, then analyzes what happens based off ot the answers.

That's town.

Please quote examples of these.

[DCLXVI]

Why don't you think Raven is town? What about her posts makes her scummy?

raven is scum via POE and being blocked on a night without a kill.

There is some other stuff, not all of which I can recall right now but I do remember that when I claimed to have jailed hiraki Raven completely ignored it and did not comment on it till I asked her specifically to do so, it appeared to me that she might have known what exactly happened that night and didn't want to get caught in an awkward post.

[DCLXVI]

So basically, I flipped a coin and it landed on heads which mean jailing someone other than RM.

I chose to jail hiraki last night.

No kill occurred. One of three things happened barring a no-kill which is very pointless as it simply extends the day for the town.Therefor either:

Scum targeted me and RM's protection worked.
Hiraki is scum and was doing the kill.
Hiraki is town and scum targeted him.

I seriously doubt hiraki was targeted for a nightkill. I also doubt scum targeted him either.

However, it is reasonably possible that scum decided just to try and kill me and then worst case scenario would have been that whoever I targeted would be a likely lynched if I ended up being protected.

However, I don't think that is the case, the way the role PM's were worded, it looked as if the doc knew whether or not he had saved someone from dying so I think scum would have thought incorrectly that that type of gamble would have paid off. The fact that the mod is just now clarifying it shows that scum probably did not ask about it over night.

Thoughts on this everyone? I don't want to rush things today.

@NSC, read the thread before making up bullshit please.

I ran a reaction test by claiming to block hiraki, I was not only testing hiraki but testing everyone else. I specifically said I wanted people to comment on it.

Basically everyone else responded but raven did not, and yes that does reflect poorly on raven.

[DCLXVI]

@DCL again- Ignoring you saying you jailed something is outrageous, especially when you said AT THE POINT IN TIME we shouldn't lynch someone just because you jailed them- or have you forgotten?

NSC's quote for new page context.

[DCLXVI]

shrug, I'm allowed to change my mind as circumstances dictate.

[DCLXVI]

I think there may be one scum in this group RD, LNG, raven

Why don't you think Raven is town? What about her posts makes her scummy?

raven is scum via POE and being blocked on a night without a kill.

There is some other stuff, not all of which I can recall right now but I do remember that when I claimed to have jailed hiraki Raven completely ignored it and did not comment on it till I asked her specifically to do so, it appeared to me that she might have known what exactly happened that night and didn't want to get caught in an awkward post.

And also, I didn't really think about the significance of Raven ignoring my question till a later re-read, my immedate response was that I didn't want her lynched cause of the jk, not that I was townreading her. As far as I can see this is the first time I actually brought that up (though I may have earlier but I can't find it in my iso)

In other words NSC, I went back re-read, and changed my mind. POE also plays a very strong role in raven scum as well.

[DCLXVI]

So, no. I'm not listening to that pool of three bullshit where you only promise 1 scum with MAYBE 2.

Again, stop misrepping me, I don't even have to iso myself to know that I said most likely 2, which is a lot different than maybe two.

Well, if the scum aren't in that group that would leave you or bulba left to choose from, I didn't really put my reads in any particular order inside their groups (another thing you would have noticed if you actually read what I posted)

[DCLXVI]

It would be totally dumb of the scum to try to target DC knowing there was a doc protecting him, of course I was the target duh. The fact that I am not dead yet leads a lot of credence to DC locking up the scum doing the night kill.

DC has been a bit iffy on who he jailed from time to time to keep the scum guessing, but I have been up front and totally vocal about protecting DC.

Why would scum even try to target him? makes zero sense.

It would be completely plausible for scum to target me RM.

Assuming that you are targeting me and I am not lucky enough to block the scum doing the kill.

Scenario 1 I target someone else and you can be killed
Scenario 2 I target you and you cannot be killed

In other words, all the nightkill stuff is a massive, massive amount of wifoming. Scum know that if I don't target you that you are an easy kill, but I know that as well so I might target you to save you so then maybe scum should target me, but I also know all that...etc...its classic wifom, scum could have targeted etither of us and either choice technically makes sense as it is a valid option.

[DCLXVI]

And let's see judging on your reads who the next person to lynch would be!- Me. Which would lose lylo. And the game.

You are also neglecting that I am completely willing to change my mind as evidence dictates.

[DCLXVI]

Ok, basically speaking scum are in a bit of a bind coming into today without a nightkill, with town having to mislynch three times for scum to win, POE is going to end up killing them.

So what does scum have to do to win, they have to create as many potential mislynches as possible which includes then going after players that others consider to be town and hoping to stop the narrowing down of the POE that is going on.

look at raven/NSC/lng all going after dr who, who I have called town all game and for the most part has been under little to no suspicion. I would be absolutely shocked if there was not scum in that group right there.

[DCLXVI]

notscience you need to take a chill pill and relax, I suspect raven and lng much more than you and look where my vote is.

I really don't have any interest in voting you but the way you are acting today, as someone else RD or Dr. Who pointed out is making other people suspect you and really isn't helping the town.

[DCLXVI]

I'm perfectly fine with today ending in a pasch lynch.

Hammer away.

[DCLXVI]

Pasch, how has 666 lead the town so far? He was active in both the ThAd and SD mislynch.

I was practically begging people to stop calling sd scum and they still did to the point where there really wasn't any option but to lynch him because it was unfortunately inevitable (and was very distracting from actual scumhunting)

[DCLXVI]

Seriously, just hammer him.

[DCLXVI]

@lng and bulba

it does neither

[DCLXVI]

Seriously, just hammer him.

[DCLXVI]

You seemed eager enough before, what changed?

[DCLXVI]

This game has gone on for three months...I don't think I'm alone when I say that I don't want to deal with long days. Pasch is getting lynched, I don't see the point in waiting around a week to do it.

[DCLXVI]

LnG, that comment was directed at NSC whom I am trying to convince to hammer Pasch tonight cause I'm impatient and bored.

[DCLXVI]

I promise to townread whoever hammers pasch

*

lol, I crossed my fingers as I typed that.

[DCLXVI]

So...how's everyone's day going?

[DCLXVI]

LNG is town 100% sure.

Phone posting now

Absolutely do not quick lynch anybody till I say what I need to say.

[DCLXVI]

I want everyone s top two scum reads.

[DCLXVI]

And if it wasnt clear, I jailed LNG.

[DCLXVI]

We are lynching who I want to Lynch.

[DCLXVI]

I want reads for other yet to be explained reasons.

@not, if who flips town who do you Lynch next.

[DCLXVI]

I think that doc who is basically confirmed town right now.

The nom and pasch blocks and scum flips make me basically 100% certain who is town. The fact is I directly stopped one of them from making a kill and as Dr is more likely to submit the kill as scum (common sense not wifom) shows that who is town IMO.

I am well aware that you guys disagree with Me but guess what, I'm confirmed town and 100% for sure not scum trying desperately to get obvious town lynched, and you guys aren't.

You guys can go ahead and be idiots and follow through on that Lynch but you would be better off stepping me once I decide who the last scum is.

Extremely strong Town reads.
Rd
LNG
Doc

Potential scum aka not strong town reads.
Not science
Bulbs
Raven

Bottom three are acceptable votes, top three aren't.

[DCLXVI]

Stepping =sheeping

[DCLXVI]

Here is how tomorrow night is going to work if we mislynch.

I will name my target ahead of time so if scum kill me that player is confirmed town.

Yes this gives scum the option to wifom and no kill but doing so also gives the town more lynches so scum is screwed either way on a no kill.

[DCLXVI]

Oh, my target tomorrow night will be doc who.

Lynch today is raven.

vote: raven

I was going to let people talk for a bit but then I realized that wasn't needed.

Raven is being lynched today and Dr who is getting jailed.

[DCLXVI]

Odds are raven flips scum anyways so all that should be much ado about nothing.

[DCLXVI]

Except with Rach dead, you're the obvious NK tonight, so it won't really tell us anything.

If I die the person I target is100% confirmed town.

So if I die tomorrow night that will prove doc who is town.

[DCLXVI]

Well, help me lynch raven and then we will be able to find out about that.

And a no kill actually wouldn't 100% confirm who as scum either.

[DCLXVI]

No, I gave a very good logical case which has been completer ignored. I also posted a list of a dozen who posts that I think show town posting that is extremely unlikely to come from scum.

[DCLXVI]

So no, I have very good reasons for my read. Just be happy that I'm jailing him and join me on the raven wagon.

Pedit stop playing with fucking semantics.

The only people who are 100% are those cleared by roles

Extremely unlikely means I have no doubt but am acknowledging the minute possibility of me being wrong.

[DCLXVI]

Raven is dying today for 4 reasons

Jail without kill
Poe from my pov
For going after my town read dr who
His reaction to the hiraki jail gambit.

[DCLXVI]

You are fine with Who tomorrow

Stop misrepping me

If raven is town I expect to be dead tomorrow with doc being confirmed town

I'm not fucking lynching a town read today.

In other news, if raven isn't lynched I'm blocking her tonight.

[DCLXVI]

You don't happen to be confirmed town.

[DCLXVI]

there is someone at L-1?

[DCLXVI]

But who is town.

Do you not read my posts?


If there is a town role blocking role scum are going to send the player least likely to be blocked.

The only objection to this is to cry wifom and say scum could have foreseen I would have thought of this to clear who.

Here is the fact s
I jailed nominal and pasch on nights without kills.
They flippped scum
It is extremely likely I stopped one of them from submitting a kill

This probes that Dr who and also rainbow dash are town.

If they were scum they would have submitted the kill instead of nominal or pasch.

[DCLXVI]

Probes =proves

Also I will jail raven tonight if she is not lynched and I will jail who if Raven is lynched.

[DCLXVI]

Raven is honestly the only scum read I have right now since I was able to clear you.

Bulba is more likely be scum than not science. but im not terribly fond of lynching either of them.

Bulbs last argument with nominuln did nit feel forced and I can't see scum arguing with each other like that.

Here is how I see things.

100% town
Me
LNG

99% town
RD
Dr.

60% town
Not science
Bulbs

10% town
Raven

[DCLXVI]

I would like the people who object to my reasoning for calling who town to post a detailed reason of why they disagree as well as to link and or give their case on who.

[DCLXVI]

You're confbiasing him to be town.

I've said this before but you may have missed it so I'll say it again.

My first choice to jail two nights ago was Dr who.

I then re- read almost the entire game and thought about it (two things I don't actually think you have done separately, let alone together)

And after I did that I decided that the evidence did show Dr who as town and I choose to jail pasch instead which turned out OK.

You on the other hand are asking other people what they will do is raven flips town while ignoring other people asking what you will do if who flips town. That's called hypocrisy.

[DCLXVI]

Oh and I moved from who to pasch less than an hour before deadline.

So you can now proceed to shut the eff up about any confirmation bias you somehow think I have.

[DCLXVI]

Not to mention I've already adressed that question, but ya kno, keep misreppin me.

Please prove a quote of that cause I just skimmed your I so from today and I couldn't find anything.

[DCLXVI]

I really need to enter all my mafia terms into my phones dictionary so spell check will stop screwing with my posts.

Edit fair enough.

I suggest you settle for who getting jailed tomorrow night and just lynch raven. Cause if raven isn't lynched I will be jailing her instead of who.

And your suggestion that im fine with lynching who is false. I'm fine with dying to prove that who is town.

[DCLXVI]

Question for you

We lynch tavern and she flips town
I target who and die

Who do you vote for?

[DCLXVI]

I like to think of myself as general Grant.

[DCLXVI]

@Raven, if you are lynched and flip town, who do you think is most likely scum? Bulba or Doc?

I was about to accuse you of asking pointless questions to get town credit... and then I remembered I cleared you last night.

[DCLXVI]

Did slimer authorize you to do other mod duties too (lynches, nights, etc.)?

I think someone should hammer raven so we can find out.

[DCLXVI]

Rd please don't hammer my town read.

[DCLXVI]

Strangely enough, Rainbow seems to be the only person that no one has a very strong read on.

I've been wondering for a while if anyone actual reads what I post... This confirms at least one person doesn't.

RD and who are my very strong town reads.

[DCLXVI]

Can someone please just hammer raven.

I've been in this game for over two months, and the people who were here since the beginning have spent over a QUARTER of a YEAR in this game

Just end it. END IT.

To recap.

RD is town due to meta and other towny things like the response to the ThAd lynch.
Dr Who is town for lots of townposting. (which I pointed out and I think everyone ignored it.) as well as being basically 99% confirmed town due to nightkill analysis (which no one has attempted to actually refute beyond just screaming wifom)
Bulba is likely town due to his argument with nominul day 5, it was just too absurd to be any attempt at distancing. (there are some other reasons that I don't believe need to be discussed as well but suffice to say he has a good chance of being town)
Not Science would be my next bet for scum if Raven is town, BUT even then there are too many things I"ve seen not post that I just can't see coming from a scum perspective.

The reality is that I can make imo good cases for everyone BUT raven to be town. Let's just lynch raven today and get it over with.

[DCLXVI]

As much fun as it would be to hammer doc and have him flip town so raven can get lynched tomorrow that is not something I am planning on doing.

[DCLXVI]

Someone please hammer Raven.

Or failing to do that, please explain (without using the word wifom) why my case for dr who town is bad.

Pedit:

[DCLXVI]

And by case for dr who being town I mean the argument I made in the following posts.

*note the logic also applies to RD and to a much lesser extent not science. (in other words this clears RD as well in my mind and slightly clears not science.

But who is town.

Do you not read my posts?


If there is a town role blocking role scum are going to send the player least likely to be blocked.

The only objection to this is to cry wifom and say scum could have foreseen I would have thought of this to clear who.

Here is the fact s
I jailed nominal and pasch on nights without kills.
They flippped scum
It is extremely likely I stopped one of them from submitting a kill

This probes that Dr who and also rainbow dash are town.

If they were scum they would have submitted the kill instead of nominal or pasch.

I think that doc who is basically confirmed town right now.

The nom and pasch blocks and scum flips make me basically 100% certain who is town. The fact is I directly stopped one of them from making a kill and as Dr is more likely to submit the kill as scum (common sense not wifom) shows that who is town IMO.

I am well aware that you guys disagree with Me but guess what, I'm confirmed town and 100% for sure not scum trying desperately to get obvious town lynched, and you guys aren't.

You guys can go ahead and be idiots and follow through on that Lynch but you would be better off stepping me once I decide who the last scum is.

Extremely strong Town reads.
Rd
LNG
Doc

Potential scum aka not strong town reads.
Not science
Bulbs
Raven

Bottom three are acceptable votes, top three aren't.

The facts.

1. Scums only power is the nightkill
2. Scum want the nightkill to go through, a no-kill does not benefit them
3. I am a jailor
4. I was strongly (and publicly) townreading dr who all game. I had expressed either a scum read and or null read on nominul all game.

Conclusion:

Because scum need a nightkill and their is a blocking role in the game they are going to send the player that is least likely to be blocked.

I do not see how this is not logical. Is this 100%? Of course not, but it is incredibly likely to be true.

Calling this just wifom is completely silly. There is no benefit for scum to send a scummy (and therefor likely to be targeted) player to send in the nightkill when there is a roleblocker.

So in other words, this isn't wifom, this is common sense and working with the assumption that scum posses some of it. (and let's be honest, no one expected me to be alive this long so I highly doubt there were planning ahead and thinking 'oh let's send nominul or pasch or raven instead of Dr. Who so the doctor can get towncred), cause that scenario is just plain absurd.

Nightkill options

1. Dr who is scum and submitted all of them (possibly not night 1 though I would tend to think dr who would have done that one as scum) and targeted me nights 1,4,5
2. Dr who is town and one of Raven/nominul/pasch submitted a nightkill on nights 1,4 or 5
3. Dr. who is town and mafia targeted me on 1,4 and 5.

I very firmly believe that I at least stopped one kill by targeting the scum making a kill. (Four is most likely, then five and one.) If this is true then it means that Dr. Who, RD, and to a lesser extent not science are all cleared because since I had called them town then they would have been extremely more likely to have submitted a nightkill.

If you think dr who is scum you need to believe that scenario 1 is true and that scenario two is false.

Reads:

Town for ever and ever for all eternity (a.k.a. do not ever lynch)
RD
Dr. Who

Leaning town with slight doubts.
Not Science
Bulba

Scum (no particular order).
Pasch
lng
Raven

Pedit:

Bad argument is bad. Of course scum don't know my plan, but why the hell would I be wasting my jail attempts targetting people I am actively trying to prevent from getting lynched? That doesn't make sense. Secondly, scum couldn't afford to lose players because of POE so they would have been attempting to risk losing a few players as possible.

So yes, while that is technically plausible explanation, it is nowhere near as likely to be true as the one I provided.

Secondly, Dr who is a smart player. If dr who was scum I would expect dr who to act in the most logical way (having no idea that I would ever come up with this idea to clear who and RD, cause expecting that to happen would be borderline absurdity.)

This means that the player that is not likely to be blocked is the player that would be submitting the kill. THat is why nominal likely submitted the kill night 4 isntead of pasch.

[DCLXVI]

The fact is that we have a very good idea of which players submitted the night kills nights four and five, and because of that knowledge, we can then reasonably conclude that if Who was scum who would have been submitting those kills in place of those players.

Not science, essentially you are arguing that:

In a game with a town roleblocker and a tightening noose of POE around the scumteam, they chose to send a player the jailer had a a scumspect to send the kill INSTEAD of the player who never would have been jailed.

That is not logical, there is no benefit to the scum that they could have foreseen at the time they would have submitted the kill.

Again, Dr Who is not dumb, I believe he would have chosen the traditionally correct choice of action for scum in this game. But since that is clearly not what happened, he cannot be scum.

...................

If dr who is scum, scum would NOT have done X, but scumteam did do X, which means that Dr. Who cannot be scum.

With X being having nominul and/or pasch submit a nightkill.

.......................


Pedit:

Nope,

All I am saying is that I likely blocked scum on ONE night. (at a minimum)

[DCLXVI]

NotScience,

In order to argue that Dr who is scum, you have to argue that Scum did not choose the best and most logical plan for submitting nightkills. You would basically have to argue that scum could have foreseen the possibility of me using this argument to clear one of them. And I'm sorry, but no one possesses that kind of psychic ability so that argument doesn't work.

You could argue that they didn't believe me about my reads, which again, while technically possible is simply not as likely as the other conclusion that I presented.

And with Who and pasch being decent players and nominul wasn't that bad either I think the more logical conclusion that if they were scum they would choose to make the best move for themselves and because either pasch or nominul were likely blocked that basically proves that who wasn't and isn't scum.

...............
Any of the nights I targeted Pasch, Raven, or Nominul RM could have stopped the kill by saving me. So no, I am not trying to say I got miraculously lucky and stopped all the kills at the exact right nights, What I am saying though is that I stopped at least one kill and that proves Dr Who to be town.

[DCLXVI]

But seriously, not science, you have gotten so biased against the possibility of who being town that I really even doubt you are actually reading my posts.

[DCLXVI]

Bulba isn't on the menu for today.

Who and raven are, and one of those is much better than the other one.

Look, you will have plenty of time to lynch bulba after I die and have who get confirmed.

[DCLXVI]

@lng, do you even read my posts?

I have RD and WHo as super strong town reads
Bulba and not science are leaning town reads
Raven is scum

Bulba and not science would be ok in the sense that POE is going to lead to scum anyway, but raven is the only lynch I really actually want. I'm meh abotu either bulba or science being lynched.

[DCLXVI]

that scenario doesn't work dr who.

Cause, if anyone other than raven is lynched I am jailing raven.

[DCLXVI]

Wow, who would have thunk it, Raven flips scum and Who is town. more thoughts later once I read the qts.

thanks-you lng for hammering raven.

[DCLXVI]

Raven "Also, my head hurts trying to figure out who DCL is gonna to jail."

pasch "nd I think we should not deviate AT ALL in trying to kill Rach. Every night until she's dead. Eventually 666 is going to choose someone else."

can I say CALLED IT

nominul "I don't know who DCL is going to target. I don't know anything. I'm despairing because we've pulled off four mislynches in a row and still look like we're going to lose. I'm sorry. "

Do you know what's really funny, that is exactly how I was feeling at night.

"If we can imagine how pissed we'll be if DCL switches tonight and we do to, DCL can imagine us imagining that. This is WIFOM, pure and simple. And the way out of WIFOM is random numbers. "

I"M IN YOUR HEADS! muahahaha ... I feel your pain in your unluckyness, but man, reading the QT is funny.

raven "When you say no one will notice a dead Rach that’s what makes me think DCL will not JK her, especially now he’s caught one scum -> this has likely made him more eager to keep himself alive."

That was completely correct, it got to a point after day 4 that I was basically determined to be alive as long as possible.

.............................
About varsoon/RD, I has him as an extremely strong townread before any of the varsoon shit and then my nightkill analysis pretty much made him and who 100% town imo so that really didn't effect me at all in regards to reading him.

...............................
Also, loz at SD being mad at me, I'm sorry, but your lynch had to happen cause I was not going to be able to convince people that you were town, and face it, you weren't acting like town even if I was reading you as such. Yeah, hindsight being 20-20 a pasch lynch there would have cleared you imo but that didn't happen.

[DCLXVI]

oh wait, notty replaced varsoon, wow, I got mixed up on that either way, and here I was thinking he was the next scum if raven flipped town.

[DCLXVI]

sharing this because it is funny.

You should know the drill by now. No deaths.

Ok, this is now reaching the point of absurdity.

If nom, raven, and pasch are the scumteam than they are seriously the most unlucky scumteam in existence in the history of mafia.

the pm sent after the nom lynch/pasch jail

[DCLXVI]

I jailed lng last night because I figured Raven would be an easy lynch if I jailed lng and RM died, where on the other hand jailing raven with an RM death would not have lead as easily to a lng lynch.

[DCLXVI]

imo bulba's "catching" of nominul was really just kind of stupid, I basically just skimmed past any of the arguments that they had, on the other hand, it did pretty much move bulba from leaning scum to leaning town cause even scumbuddies don't bus that ridiculously

[DCLXVI]

Bulba caught Nom? I thought DCLXVI was the JK.

bulba thinks he caught nom in a lie and therefor proved nom was scum when in reality it was much ado about nothing.