Open 495: Slimey Near Vanilla GAMEOVER
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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I was just beginning to wonder myself.In post 2066, theslimer3 wrote:which may or may not exist)Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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There wasn't any way Pasch was going to get lynched unless someone swapped over to him which was extremely unlikely. Also, SD never comes on MS in the morning (I went through his recent posts to confirm that) A lynch had to happen and I wasn't going to let the day end without a lynch.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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Explain.In post 1938, Nominull wrote:Anyway if you wanna bus SD I'm all for it, but don't think you'll get my neck as compensation.
VOTE: SafetyDanceSarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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How many hours did we have to submit night actions last night?
Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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In post 2085, Bulbazak wrote:@DC: Did you protect Rach again?
@RBD: If you were scum in this scenario, would the optimal move be to target the same PR every night, or to try to outguess them/alternate?In post 2087, Bulbazak wrote:I'm trying to figure things out DC. If scum are trying to alternate in some way, then my hypothesis is shot, but if the optimal play is to target the same PR night after night, then that effects things greatly read-wise.
@BulbIn post 2089, Bulbazak wrote:Because if scum would target the same PR for death every single night, then we caught scum and let her go. If not, then it doesn't matter. RBD, if town, has a good analytical mind when it comes to optimal scum play. I trust his opinion on the matter, plus I think his answer will help solidify my read on him.
I don't want to give actual answers to what I did last night yet. I'm still thinking.
Let's do this hypothetically.
Scenario 1. I targeted RM, Scenario two I targeted ABC. Give your opinions of what should happen/what it means in either situation.
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The reason I don't want other people to answer is it poisens the well so to speak for other questions I may want to ask.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 3461
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- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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Cause my ego wants me to believe that at least one of raven and nominul are scum.In post 2164, notscience wrote:Why notSarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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I really hadn't made up my mind on who exactly I wanted to lynch but I think this does it for me.
In post 2254, Nominull wrote:VOTE: Nominull
Cheers! I feel like an idiot for spending hours going over the backlog for this thread, you would just let the scum summarize anything I posted about it anyway.vote:nominul
Seriously though, if you are town, I'm blacklisting you.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: March 8, 2012
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And finally, lolz at butt hurt scum.In post 2290, Nominull wrote:
Blacklist me for getting fed up with this bullshit? Get over yourself. Your play has been terrible and you deserve to lose.In post 2285, DCLXVI wrote:I really hadn't made up my mind on who exactly I wanted to lynch but I think this does it for me.
In post 2254, Nominull wrote:VOTE: Nominull
Cheers! I feel like an idiot for spending hours going over the backlog for this thread, you would just let the scum summarize anything I posted about it anyway.vote:nominul
Seriously though, if you are town, I'm blacklisting you.
I actually don't blame you that much, I'd be pissed if I couldn't get a single kill by day 5.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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Something is missing.In post 2301, Rainbowdash wrote:I hope not, because if you JKed non-RMa no kill is who you lynchand its a fairly strong town tell if a kill did happen.
Scum probably all in LnG/DW/Pasch at this pointSarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: March 8, 2012
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Dr. Who is town.
Let's just actually try and think this through for a second. I called Dr. Who town since day one and have continued to do so. So if Dr. Who was scum 'who' do you think the scumteam would send to do the kill since there is a town jailor? Maybe night 1 scum may have thought I could have been bluffing about townreads in order to be able to jail one of those players successfully (something I wish I had though of doing, (or maybe I did muahaha)), but I find that unlikely.
So the fact is that on nights 1,4 and 5 (and yes RD I know mafia theory well enough know the right move to make in this situation(that and I'm a selfish bastard who wants to live)) I did not target RM. So in theory, scum dr who would have submitted the kill. Are you telling me that he targeted me on each of those nights when there wasn't a kill when the logically assumption is that Raven/nominul/player blocked night 5 did the kill, cause if one of those players submitted the kill than that is basically proof that Dr. Who is NOT scum.
tldr, just fucking trust me on this ok?Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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So in other words there are two options
Dr. Who is scum and likely submitted every scum kill.
At least one of Raven/Nomi null/player blocked night 5 submitted a kill and I blocked it.
I find the latter option much more likely especially since nominul flipped scum.
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@RM of course you were going to target me every night, doing anything else would have been stupid.
However, scum could have actually targeted me since if I roleblocked you I would be open to being targetted (and since I did roleblock you nights 2-3 that pretty much means that it would have been a good choice for scum to target me those nights.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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The point is is that when someone who is confirmed town is strongly arguing against a lynch, it just might be wise to not lynch that player.In post 2323, notscience wrote:I was AGAINST the SD lynch too in case you forgot.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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I'm not stupid.In post 2327, Ravenpaw wrote:Just because you JK someone and there is no kill does not mean that you stopped the killer, since we have 2 protective roles it can also mean that scum targeted you, like I've been trying to tell you guys already.
Now that that is our of the way...
Three times I targeted someone other than rm and there wasn't a kill I think there is a extremely good chance that one of those nights I blocked scum making a kill. Of course I don't think it was every night, but just one night would be proof enough of Dr who being town.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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The facts.
1. Scums only power is the nightkill
2. Scum want the nightkill to go through, a no-kill does not benefit them
3. I am a jailor
4. I was strongly (and publicly) townreading dr who all game. I had expressed either a scum read and or null read on nominul all game.
Conclusion:
Because scum need a nightkill and their is a blocking role in the game they are going to send the player that is least likely to be blocked.
I do not see how this is not logical. Is this 100%? Of course not, but it is incredibly likely to be true.
Calling this just wifom is completely silly. There is no benefit for scum to send a scummy (and therefor likely to be targeted) player to send in the nightkill when there is a roleblocker.
So in other words, this isn't wifom, this is common sense and working with the assumption that scum posses some of it. (and let's be honest, no one expected me to be alive this long so I highly doubt there were planning ahead and thinking 'oh let's send nominul or pasch or raven instead of Dr. Who so the doctor can get towncred), cause that scenario is just plain absurd.
Nightkill options
1. Dr who is scum and submitted all of them (possibly not night 1 though I would tend to think dr who would have done that one as scum) and targeted me nights 1,4,5
2. Dr who is town and one of Raven/nominul/pasch submitted a nightkill on nights 1,4 or 5
3. Dr. who is town and mafia targeted me on 1,4 and 5.
I very firmly believe that I at least stopped one kill by targeting the scum making a kill. (Four is most likely, then five and one.) If this is true then it means that Dr. Who, RD, and to a lesser extent not science are all cleared because since I had called them town then they would have been extremely more likely to have submitted a nightkill.
If you think dr who is scum you need to believe that scenario 1 is true and that scenario two is false.
Reads:
Town for ever and ever for all eternity (a.k.a. do not ever lynch)
RD
Dr. Who
Leaning town with slight doubts.
Not Science
Bulba
Scum (no particular order).
Pasch
lng
RavenSarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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That's a fucking bad idea.In post 2364, LnGrrrR wrote:Also, not too much offense DCL, but at this point I think town should just look at whoever you and Rainbow call scum, and then clear them as town
I had SD as town, and nominul as scum. Which means my last two lynch reads were correct. My reads get much better as the game progresses.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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raven and you can't both bus pasch cause in that scenario there would be four scum.In post 2364, LnGrrrR wrote:Do you really think that Raven and I were both bussing Paschendale, and neither of us jumped to the "easier" lynch in SD?Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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Please stop being stupid.In post 2376, notscience wrote:His own VCA. I'm town, Raven's town. That means the one scum on the wagon (which by his own VCA he says there is one) is him.
I've played with town Raven before and this feels like town Raven.
There is a very good chance of scum being on a town wagon. There is a much smaller chance of scum being on a scum wagon.
p.s. there was one scum on the wagon actually.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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I could find one quote from every living player that looks like it is coming from a scum mindset. That kind of cherry picking seems pointless.In post 2378, LnGrrrR wrote:
@DCL, do you think this post from Who is coming a town or scum mindset?In post 1089, Doctor Who wrote:
Not a soul has voted me. Why do I need town points?In post 1083, ThAdmiral wrote:I think dr who's analysis is both an easy way to get town points for "doing work" and also a lazy way to jump on to the hiraki wagon.
I put it to you, sir, that you are scum with nominull.
I'm not scum, pretty sure nominull isn't.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3461
- Joined: March 8, 2012
- Location: Somewhere in the central timezone
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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in response to 2381
a lol i got voted is not anywhere near as defensive as a bunch of massive paragraphs, that is not apples and oranges, it's broccoli and watermelon that you are trying to compare.
Also, I'm in the process of gathering all the posts from the good doctor which I think show townthinking.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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actually, last night I first chose to block Dr. Who, something felt off, but then I re-read him (and a ton of other stuff) and chose pasch. I spent like 4-5 hours monday re-reading and other stuff.In post 2384, LnGrrrR wrote:@DCL, feel free to point out those reasons. Which posts do you think makes him definitely townie?
PEDIT: Also, I think you've got blinders on. Apart from Who saying, "I'm scum!" I think you're inclined to see him with townglasses.
and btw,vote:pasch
Seriously, if we lynch through pasch, lng, raven we will for sure hit one scum and likely two and end this game.Sarcasm isnota scumtell.-
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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DCLXVI Mafia Scum
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