Open 524: Donner Party (Game Over)

[Belisarius]

I was hoping to get caught up with this game at work today, but I got to page 6 and all hell broke loose, so while you wait, here's a hastily-drawn doodle of The Queen in a Starfleet uniform. (Not quite sure why, but whenever I try to doodle a face, it comes out looking like Lucifer. It's not, though.)

[Belisarius]

OK, caught up; I haven't caught anything that hasn't already been pointed out, but today I'm not interested in lynching anyone out of the following list: { Wisdom, querty, Boro, ferret, gm, Hei, Noctan, Mitillos }

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Banakai

Baaaa.

[Belisarius]

Has oriole even posted?

I'm not particularly interested in lynching him, but there are 8/12 players I

don't

want to lynch. That leaves oriole, Saki, and Banakai by PoE.

[Belisarius]

Gonna do this in 2 posts so I don't forget to answer the Hei question again while I ISO qwerty.

I'm not interested in lynching Noctan because of thenewearth -- I've played with scum-tne once and he didn't lurk this hard. It's a changeable read, but unlike the 3 players I've POE'd, at least it's a redeeming feature.

Hei is BK201.

[Belisarius]

Right, it was 113 and 117 that I liked with regards to qwerty; I'm not fond of the "Person you think is dumb" = "town" fallacy.

[Belisarius]

Given tne got replaced in all his games, I don't think his lurking means anything in regards to his alignment.

No contest there. I'm not closing my eyes, I'm townhunting.

[Belisarius]

But you're alright with the "Person who points out a fallacy" = "town" fallacy?

Person who shoots down a fallacious point is not necessarily town, but they are being

pro

town, and I'd rather lynch from the less pro-town players.

Right, it was 113 and 117 that I liked with regards to qwerty; I'm not fond of the "Person you think is dumb" = "town" fallacy.

I don't see why he couldn't say that as scum though. Scum

need

to discredit townreads, and that's what's he's doing.

Arguing against a townread isn't alignment-indicative. Town does it, too. You're doing it right now.

[Belisarius]

I knew I should have kept notes, but there was so little there that I only have 1-2 points for each player. It'll be a few, multitasking hardcore here.

[Belisarius]

I knew I should have kept notes, but there was so little there that I only have 1-2 points for each player. It'll be a few, multitasking hardcore here.

[Belisarius]

Alright, more detailed reads list

Banakai : 103 - entire wagon is a reaction test? There's no way that's a naturally occurring thought process
193 : Hops on mr. epicmafia the low-hanging fruit like a pro.
BK201 : 252, conversely,

is

a naturally occurring thought process.
Boro : 144 -- I get paranoid when people townread me for no goddamn reason, too.
ferretlover : ok, so I just lol'd at 191 and want to keep that alive as long as better lynches exist. I won't cry myself to sleep at night if we wind up lynching ferret.
gm: 2-for-1 special in 221 showing townparanoia against Wisdom and frustration at Rational for the epicmafia dreck; secondly, I've played with scum-gm before and based on that I think scum-gm would provide better reasoning for her push on Wisdom rather than being blatantly full of shit.
Mitillos : strongest townread due to consistent high volume of non-shit questions of a sort that are hard to come up with as town. Not going to list post#s here, just ISO him and read literally any post.
Wisdom : gut, but strong gut starting with 98. I've never played with scumWisdom but I

have

played against townWisdom and this feels the same.

Saki and oriole aren't on there because I haven't seen anything alignment-indicative.

[Belisarius]

Yes, and it was worded that way intentionally. Wisdom was town in my first scumgame.

[Belisarius]

Actually, it was scum-me/town-Wisdom the other time we were in the same game too. I had to look that one up though, it didn't stick out as much in my mind.

[Belisarius]

you said that it feels the same as when you were scum and he was town....

"Feels like the same Wisdom," if you prefer.

even the first part is worded as if you were scum...

"Played with" in this case was intended in the usual sense, as in "I have never been in a game with scum Wisdom."

"Against" is the word that was intentional, because it's Newbie 1305 I'm basing my read on Wisdom on. (Although I could have sworn I played a game with Wisdom where we were both town at the time I posted that.)

[Belisarius]

In what world does Boro constitute

everyone

?

[Belisarius]

@Boro : Are you insane?

[Belisarius]

Quick question while I'm eating, Belisarius do usually buddy as town?

And now, the end is here
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I'll say it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this, I did it my way

Regrets, I've had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption
I planned each charted course
Each careful step along the byway
And more, much more than this, I did it my way

Yes there were times, I'm sure you knew
When I bit off more than I could chew
But through it all, when there was doubt

I ate it up, and spit it out!
I faced it all and I stood tall and did it MYYYYYYYYYY WAYYYYYY!

I've loved, I've laughed and cried
I've had my fill, my share of losing
And now, as my tears subside
I find it all so amusing
To think, I did all that
And may I say, not in a shy way
Oh no, oh no, not me, I did it my way.

For what is a man, what has he got?
If not himself, then he has naught
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels

The record shows
I took the blows
And did it MYYYYYYY WAYYYYYYY

*fedora-tip*

[Belisarius]

Belisarius, do you prefer to be scum or town?

Scum. Definitely scum.

[Belisarius]

gm: 2-for-1 special in 221 showing townparanoia against Wisdom and frustration at Rational for the epicmafia dreck; secondly, I've played with scum-gm before and based on that I think scum-gm would provide better reasoning for her push on Wisdom rather than being blatantly full of shit.

Townparanoia can be faked and so can frustration. Secondly his push on Wisdom isn't that great, but what I have seen of her scum pushes on previous games and for me it becomes null in general, but the meta I have on goodmorning is that she posts more as town and when she's scum she tends to lurk a lot.

When I looked at this game before subbing in I was looking at the ISO post counts and I was surprised at the number. I then went to a recent finished town game of hers and counted the number of posts in the same duration as this game started and it was 10+ more posts. She's more active as town then she is as scum.

The issue here is that you're counter-arguing against an argument that I did not make.

My read on gm has nothing to do with activity levels. It has to do with the strength of the argument.

scum-gm presents careful, spock-like reasoning.
gm this game can be summarised as "HONEY BADGER DON'T GIVE A SHIT!"
so this isn't scum-gm.

[Belisarius]

I have two modes: Fluff and lurk. Being attacked means no lurk means more fluff. Make sense?

So what is your goal in playing Mafia, then?

It can't be to win, because lurking and fluffing doesn't achieve that.

Top 3 scumreads?

[Belisarius]

Ad hom is a logical fallacy.

I'm only interested in answers from qwerty.

[Belisarius]

Still need to re-evaluate my PoE; Evil Regals is looking town as fuck to me atm.

Not buying the Bana-town argument, though. I could fake that.

I have no idea where I've gone wrong.

[Belisarius]

I was told recently that saying honestly is scummy because if you were town you wouldn't have to say honestly.

That's a tenet of Mark McClish's Statement Analysis method. I tried to use that

full

method to scumhunt in three games (Newbie 1377, Newbie 1375, [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=29453]Open 506) (but I was calling it the Driver method because I learned most of it from Driver first).

The tl'dr version of that is that it

doesn't fucking work

in Forum Mafia.

I "showed my work" in the Dead QT for Open 506 so you can see exactly how it doesn't work. If you want to skip the thread and just look at the Dead QT, the most important thing to bear in mind is that Yesterday basically won the game single-handedly for town..

[Belisarius]

I'm still solidly unwilling to lynch within {Mit, Wisdom, gm, Hei}

I suppose I probably have to say I'd rather have a Bana wagon than any of the nullier alternatives, but I shouldn't given that I'm presently leading the wagon.

[Belisarius]

That makes it 4/4.

I'd still rather have Banakai.

[Belisarius]

Fuck.

Pretty sure both were town.

I think scum and the SK shot Mit, and the asshole vig shot Wisdom instead on Banakai. WTG, asshole.

VOTE: Banakai

[Belisarius]

Or ate, w/e

[Belisarius]

FUCKHEAD.

Like as not, the real SK shot Mit.

[Belisarius]

Actually check that. If Saki's claim is real, that means the protown vig and the antitown SK shot at the same target WHICH MAKES THE VIG AN ASSHOLE

[Belisarius]

Wrong, they SK has a 1shot BP

Criminy!

Verified, which means Saki us a confirmed liar.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Saki

ER, I trust you now. Don't fucking betray me.

[Belisarius]

Roleblock doesn't clear Saki. It just means Wisdom was either town or SK targeted by both the vig and scum. Highly unlikely since vig and scum have opposite wincons.

[Belisarius]

Standard mafia theory suggests one-shot BP would absorb the first kill and the second kill would go through.

Hence if the scum and SK targeted the same player, the first would be advised of the flip and the second not.

I highly doubt either Mafia or SK will claim scum to clear that up for us.

[Belisarius]

I smell bullshit.

SAKI DELENDA EST!

[Belisarius]

Saki doesn't need to PM the mod since he's an obvious bullshitter.

Real vig: do not fucking counterclaim
. We got this.

[Belisarius]

Officially claiming not vig, in case that's not clear.

[Belisarius]

ccs don't mean anything?
bullshit.

CC on obvious bullshit claims don't mean fuck all.

There's no way in hell the vig would have shot at Wisdom over either Banakai or qwerty.

[Belisarius]

Fuck no.

No town PR should claim under any circumstance.

[Belisarius]

Basically, Saki is being an obvious bullshitter and any PR wirh an effective guilty on him should hold off to bust the entire scumteam and/or SK.

I fucked up like that before. The scum I busted was this game's mod. His scumbuddy still managed to win even after the other townslot was replaced

by Nacho

.

Conversely, I won Wazza's Watcher game by keeping my yap shut.

PRs, take a leaf from my book. Give us a win.

[Belisarius]

Fuck no.

No town PR should claim under any circumstance.

The only other option is we just lynch Saki.

If you think that will stop me, look at my vote AND mu PoE from D1

[Belisarius]

Wha....t....

UNVOTE:

I need to mull this over.

[Belisarius]

Still, Why would scum pretend to be roleblocked. Also a even if the vig was killed by beli he'd be killed by the serial killer from the claim.

This post makes no sense either way I read the dangling participle at the end.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=25827]Here is a scumgame of mine where claiming to be roleblocked

continuously

led to a win.

Wait I just argued why he was town

No, you didn't. I think you may have argued that I'm Spiderman, though. I'm not really sure.

[Belisarius]

I don't think it's so obvious.

The anti-towns killed my top 2 townreads last night, and now it's looking like the town is going to lynch the third.

[Belisarius]

Buggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbugger.

VOTE: qwerty

I still do not like any of my options. Fingers crossed.

[Belisarius]

Yeah, still not voting for a townread.

[Belisarius]

k.

gm: 2-for-1 special in 221 showing townparanoia against Wisdom and frustration at Rational for the epicmafia dreck; secondly, I've played with scum-gm before and based on that I think scum-gm would provide better reasoning for her push on Wisdom rather than being blatantly full of shit.

[Belisarius]

Who knows if she'll even be alive then?

@gm: It'll have to be one humdinger of a case to make me vote ER. Why don't you just join me on the qwerty wagon instead?

[Belisarius]

JUSTICE WILL REIGN SUPREME

[Belisarius]

Vote in spirit on beastcharizard, but not officially voting because it might be lylo.

Noctan-slot can't be scum of any sort; he was pending replacement the

entire

night phase, and we had 3 kills.

PEDIT: Counter-claimed, biotch.

VOTE: beastcharizard

Got cannibal result on Saki D1 and non-cannibal on ER D2.

[Belisarius]

The reason you didn't get a result last night is that you're lying.

I take it from your train of thought that you haven't eaten the SK (as scum) or scum (as the SK), but the rest of us have to consider the possibility that the scum crosskilled at some point, or that Saki's the one who shot at BK and shot correctly, which means town wins just as soon as we lynch your lying ass.

Are you really trying to negotiate with

me

, the one player who knows damn well you're lying? Nope. Vote stays on the confscum.

This is a 1v1. From every perspective, one of us

has

to be lying. If you want to save yourself you'd better vote me and hope gm or Bana come down on your side (Or a rep is found for Noctan, w/e).

@everyone else: Let's do this. beastcharizard delenda est!

[Belisarius]

><

UNVOTE: beastcharizard

Just for now.

I'm not sure I buy the SK claim as opposed to scum flailing, but I'm open to counsel.

[Belisarius]

And #2?

You could be pulling a Wizard's First Rule on us.

And dammit, we can't risk it.

[Belisarius]

And also because if you hit scum at any point this game, or

are

scum, we

can

safely lynch you today. Of

course

you're going to want us to believe we can't.

No matter how many ways I try to approach the problem from, we can't bloody well risk it and that's pissing me off.

[Belisarius]

Except that if he's telling the truth, we lose right then and there.

Unless the SK was killed by scum last night, we

have

to lynch mafia today, and go into 1:1:1 tomorrow.

With a slot pending replacement

. That would be even worse than regular 1:1:1

Naturally bc gets roleblocked tonight, because otherwise lynching anybody but bc results in a sk win.

[Belisarius]

Wait a minute.

Shaheed's Law applies here.

If bc is telling the truth in that there are indeed two scum and a SK alive, that means the town has already lost. The best we can hope for is 1:1:1 with the surviving townie (Bana, belike) acting as a Kingmaker.

If you need something to be true or you're fucked, assume it is.

We

need

bc to be lying or we're fucked.

VOTE: beastcharizard

[Belisarius]

It's nor ER, I got a not cannibal result on her.

[Belisarius]

Flail moar.

I have

such

a good feeling about this.

[Belisarius]

[Belisarius]

Scum QT

brb reading the dead QT, I bet it's gonna be awesome.

[Belisarius]

Drat, was hoping for a bigger shitstorm in the dead QT after the dietician claims.

[Belisarius]

In the situation he was in. After I CC'd him he was confscum, and it was the only way to escape the lynch.