Open 496: Ryuk is the protagonist

[Tajun]

VOTE: Blue Yoshi, for not commenting on DBK's obviously serious post.

[Tajun]

I really hope you're joking about this!

I am 100% serious all the time.

Especially

when I'm joking.

[Tajun]

Blue Yoshi, how serious is that question?

[Tajun]

I wasn't sure whether to chalk your words up to newbie syndrome or scumminess, but a serious accusation about hindering progress day 1 (real time) with 8/13 people having checked in and still in essential RVS is a pretty big stretch. I like your response though.
UNVOTE:

I think I'll
VOTE: ArcAngel9
for fluffy posting. C'mon, make an accusation here!

[Tajun]

RVS is over? That's a shame, since no one has done anything scummy yet.

Hmmmm...

Arguing that town wouldn't want to get out of RVS is pretty blatantly bad. Guess I'll go with that one.

VOTE: Does Bo Know

[Tajun]

That's not why I'm voting Chenoan.

But okay.

Okay, why are you voting Chenoan? Post 47 gave me that impression, and I am not seeing a lot of other explanation.

@orozorro, do not discriminate against me

@Tajun, "pretty blatantly bad"? A fair few people would argue that wrt getting out of RVS. Not something I agree with, obviously, but something that people do accept. A pretty weak reason to jump on that wagon.

@Chenoan, you went from "three is too many votes" to "I know three is not too many but I actually think you are town"? That was a pretty big leap there. Why not just say that you think DBK is town to start with?

Gonna have to request examples from you, because prior to this game I have never seen anyone claim scum should be more eager to escape RVS.

@Autti: Please read it. It's really not much of a game if you don't.

[Tajun]

Lot's going on, here are some thoughts;

I have the strange feeling that this is mostly town on town violence going on. I'm less sure about KBW being town than some of you guys seem to be, I'd have to read up on his meta, but his posting certainly doesn't scream scum to me. Don't like his post 87 though, nor 95.

Chenoan's a bit up in the air. Agree with a couple of the points on him, but post 88 was fairly town. BTW,

But at the very least there's 3 non-town players in the setup.

No. God no. If you people don't read the setup and we lose because of it like the last ++ town I was in (against that time), I will not be pleased. I'll give you a proper game theory tutorial this weekend. Until then, everyone should give http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B a look.

Actually, I don't like 105

at all

. On second read through, there is absolutely NO reason whatsoever for him to read this as an SK slip rather than a scumslip. The automatic assumption in that situation (if you believed it) should be that "knows number of players on scumteam" => "on scumteam". He didn't even consider that possibility, but went straight to SK. Then he backtracked like a madman after he realized what he said. Buying him as maf here.

VOTE: Chenoan

No one has ever been more town than Elyse. DBK looking pretty good right now. Really want to hear Apozzle's thought's on things, something in my gut doesn't like his posting so far.

[Tajun]

Sorry, life came up. V/LA to Saturday.

[Tajun]

Going back and forth on Chenoan, I kind of like his responses to the pressure. I'll give his meta a read tonight/tomorrow, I'd probably unvote him but 105 still screams slip-up to me. I hate being talked out a good scum read by clever talkers.

AA9, although perhaps not the most effective scum-hunter, is screaming town to me in Posts 166-168. 171 is killing me, but I'm still betting town.

Apozzle continues to ping my scum-dar. 176 and 184 are incredibly wishy-washy, and my question to him has yet to be answered.

Dfodfscfotfdsfaocrfdjnsa. I'm back.
I've played with KBW in another game, but he doesn't seem to be acting all that different from the other game he played. He's a typical not-very-bright player, so I can't see him being scum.

Although I don't agree with the bandwagon on him, I do understand no one knows his meta, but I'm confused as to why they aren't looking into it.

Though playing a 13p game with about 7 active people means we have a lot of lost info, so jumping to conclusions about entire scumteams right now isn't very smart.
(Please note I typed up this post last night and just recently hit submit, so this info may be slightly moot.)

Here's what I don't get about the reads on KBW. People keep saying is meta is to play like this as town, but is there any meta that he doesn't do it as scum as well? If not, I really

really

don't like people giving him a pass for his ignorance. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he is scum in need of death, but I can't figure where these town reads are coming from.

My read on Pasch is really weird right now. His content is good in theory, but my gut is screeching scum and I can't pinpoint why.

What are other people's reads on him?

This was my initial reaction too, but something tells me that my gut was wrong on this and we simply disagree on reads. It's easy to mis-analyse someone you disagree with.

First 3 pages;

DBK looks scummy as fuck, speed for getting out of RVS (ie. getting out of RVS fast) ISN'T EVEN A SMALL SCUM TELL.

He's stretching, and Chenoan is just as scummy for unvoting a wagon because it had "too many illegitimate votes" that's bad, wagons get larger then 3 votes all the time in RVS.

Everyone else is town enough.

THANK YOU. Jeez.

@JacobSavage: Inspiring. Try again.

[Tajun]

@Tajun

Apozzle continues to ping my scum-dar. 176 and 184 are incredibly wishy-washy, and my question to him has yet to be answered.

1) No, those posts are not at all wishy-washy. If you are capable of bringing up specific issues you have with them instead of generalizing then I can explain why you are wrong.

Fair enough. My issue is that those posts seemed to be there for the sake of being there; that is, that you managed to make posts with what seemed like content without making an accusation or any particularly insightful comments about players. You use the terms "concerns slightly", "meh", "kind of" and "not much" in four of your analyses and then claimed "nothing on the remainders". 184, your conclusion is "complicated". Essentially, it seems as though you are active lurking, attempting to seem useful without making any strong stands, which leaves your options open to attack anyone who you see fit.

2) The answer to your question is that I have only recently joined this site and do not have a vast database of played games to link you to. I have no interest in linking off site. The theory is readily apparent. During the opening hours of the game, actions are under more scrutiny: there is not yet anybody to focus on, or any real reasons to vote. As a result, some scum players will be more invested in getting out of it because they feel exposed. The majority of town players should not feel such stresses and while they may want to get out of RVS, they do not have that exposure driving them.

Obviously not something I agree with, but that is beside the point now. You claimed:

@Tajun, "pretty blatantly bad"? A fair few people would argue that wrt getting out of RVS. Not something I agree with, obviously, but something that people do accept. A pretty weak reason to jump on that wagon.

If that is the case, you shouldn't be hard pressed to provide an example or two of this. If not, I'm forced to ask why you decided to come after me with a lie.

[Tajun]

Alright, I think it's time to discuss the theory of this game a bit.

1) Last time I played a c9++, RBD suggested an idea which I have been hoping to use. When massclaim comes along, instead of everyone claiming their roles on the first run through, we claim a number, 0, 1 or 2. 0 corresponds to a vanilla claim, 1 to a weaker version of the PR and 2 to the stronger version. After we have done this, we claim (in the same order) our roles, then finally our results. The basic idea here is that if a scum wishes to make a fakeclaim, they have to lie multiple times instead of just once. Ideally, we can catch lies more easily and potentially push them out of fakeclaiming at all. In this game, the numbers would correspond to:
1: {1-shot tracker, JK, 1-shot commuter, vengeful, Role Cop}
2: {tracker, Doc, Hider, Vig, Gunsmith}
This isn't quite as nice as it would have been in C9++, but I still think it is worthwhile. Discuss to hearts content.

2) It is very rare that it is a good idea to fakeclaim. In a semi-open setup like this one, it is suicidal. You will die, and you will cause the town to lose. Then I will scream at you post-game.

DON'T DO IT.

I don't care how clever you think you are being, it is still a stupid idea.

3) Massclaim should be day 3, except under two circumstances:
If, going into day 2, we have evidence that the town is exceptionally strong (5+ PRs) then massclaim should be done right away (ie day 2). At that point, we should get enough evidence to cruise to a victory, regardless of the enemy's strategy. Evidence for this would be a dead mafia bus-driver and a dead PR, with someone else having a 1-shot commuter or 1-shot tracker role. This is unlikely, but worthwhile on the off chance that it occurs.
If, going into day 3, we still have 10+ players alive, waiting another day is likely in order.

Anything that I missed?

[Tajun]

4) Hiding: For now, I recommend that we designate a highly ineffective individual to be hidden behind tonight, should we have a hider. The reason for this is that:
If the target is scum and we don't have a hider, it is neutral (ie nothing gained or lost).
If the target is scum and we have a hider, the hider will die and we will lynch the scum (net benefit).

If the target is town, the scum target him and we don't have a hider, they kill an ineffective player instead of an effective one. (net benefit)
If the target is town, the scum target him and we have a hider, they kill an ineffective player instead of an effective one, and we lose our hider. (net loss)
If the target is town, the scum don't target him and we don't have a hider, it is neutral.
If the target is town, the scum don't target him and we have a hider, we get a clear on a likely lynch. (Large net gain)

This should definitely be discussed (it is possible that I missed something, or that a superior strategy exists).

[Tajun]

@Tajun:

Replace JK with Doc then you have an agreement.

Why because if Doc is the stronger why there are three of them in the PPPP set up but only 1 JK

P = Doctor OR Jailkeeper (50/50 chance of either)
PP = Jailkeeper, Doctor
PPP = Jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor
PPPP = jailkeeper, Doctor, Doctor, Doctor

The only other one is the Vengeful/Vig one.
Other than that

We can switch JK and Doc, that one was a coin toss IMO. Vig is definitely better than Vengeful.

There is a difference between aggressively pursuing someone as a suspect, and being unpleasant and unreasoning. I found the tone of his first response to me to be unpleasant. In the following responses he is literally accusing me of being scum because I asked him to tone down his responses so that I could discuss things with him rationally and avoid future emotional bias (a concept which he seems to refuse to try and understand). The discussion is clearly alignment neutral and based on my personal response to his behaviour, but he persists with the idea that it makes me scum. There is no logic or evidence in any of his responses.

There is a total of ZERO reason for me to tone it down, if something has got you on edge it's more likely to give alignment tells that can effectively be used to discern your alignment.

Your the one having a total bitch fit, there will be play styles you hate, GET OVER IT, you try to lynch scum, not fuck sticks.

1: {Role Cop}
2: {Gunsmith}

Since when is a role cop worse then a gun smith?

Both have negative utility's (False results) but i'd say a role cop is more effective then a gunsmith in this game.

You had me up to the part about fucking sticks... Anyhow, I'd put a GS above an RC in this game due to his ability to sniff out mafia goons, of which there is a fairly decent chance two exist. I prefer false positives to false negatives, they are easy to sort in massclaim. If a GS gets a positive night 1, I'd suggest holding it to day 3 when we claim, for this reason.

What would you suggest we do now then, leading up to day 3? (or 2)
If we are down to 8 or less tomorrow or a situation that looks like lylo, do we massclaim?

I enjoy a healthy dose of pessimism, but I don't see it happening. Getting two vigs in this setup is pretty unlikely. In that case though, I suppose MC is in order.

For now? We lynch scum. The rest of the PRs are pretty obvious, with the possible exception of 1-shot commuter, which I would recommend against using tonight in most scenarios (if you think you're a likely target, then by all means do). JK is more powerful as a protector night 1, so I would say target a strong player rather than trying to RB scum for now.

[Tajun]

Seeing a lot of IIOA by Tajun and BY.

I think you're misusing that term, but, just in case, what are you trying to say here?

Disliking Rubicon's intro here. You have way more scum reads than town ones, which is kinda weird considering that there are guaranteed more town than scum. You also are only quoting one post as a reason for people being scum, or not quoting at all and making quick quippy comments.

Paranoia is a towntell sure, but inciting paranoia via junklogic is not.

Also, apozzle replacing out is not helping his win condition period. I do however think he's townie since he's actually following through with the replace. We'll see what his replacement does.

Just to be clear, do you think that his entrance is scummy, or simply "dislike" it?

So who on your list is most likely Town/Scum and who on your list is least likely to be town/scum?

I think they may all be scum. You might think a 5-man scum team was unlikely in this setup, but I've learned not to underestimate scum.

I love this guy. Not sure he's town yet, his choices are all pretty obvious. Then again, I agree with most of them, so meh.

Vote DBK, Apozzle is probably just a townie with a massive rod up his ass.

I disagree. We should lynch DBK too, but I want to start with Apozzle.

Why all the hate for DBK? Apozzle and Chenoan are definitely my top two picks atp.

/inb4 BY is the SK.

BY was completely useless in the other game I played with him so his not idiotic posting is surprising to say the least.

BY for SK. Chen, Pasch, Apozzle for scum.

I've found I can't reaed DBK for shit so have no clue there.

Maybe I missed something, why is BY SK and not scum? Or town for that matter, if his posting is always useless?

[Tajun]

Gotcha. That's not really what IIOA means, but whatever. I think it was pretty clear that I was doing setup spec/PR management, which in no way qualifies as scumhunting, but is useful nonetheless.

Not sure why that strikes you as odd, those are the only choices really.

Pedit: What is?

[Tajun]

Just to be clear, do you think that his entrance is scummy, or simply "dislike" it?

Bit of both. Primarily just disliking the style of coming in guns blazing so hard, but that's because I find that being lynch happy is generally not a pro-town behavior.

Scum want town to be over eager to lynch so that there can be as many mislynches as possible. Town should want to think carefully and make sure they're going after the right players.

Where do you see him being over eager to lynch? He's putting pressure on scummy players, which is scummy how?

There can be max scum and only 1 power role.
UNVOTE: Elyse because I realized I had a vote.

And Elyse, regarding your IIOA accusation, I'm trying to see the people that would rather have the mass claim on day 3.
I've said that it would be better for town on day 2, so people that want the massclaim on day 3 seem a little scummier to me.

You can't possibly be serious.

Vote Count

Chenoan-4-Keybladewielder, Elyse, Does Bo Know, Tajun,
KeyBladeWielder-1-Arcangel9,
Apozzle-1-Rubicon,
Does Bo Know-1-JasonWazza,
Appozle-1-Paschendale,


Not voting:
JacobSavage,Autti, Apozzle, Chenoan, Blue Yoshi,

[Tajun]

I’m confused on Tajun’s read on me in 301. From what I remember Tajun agreed with Jason about his reason for me being scum. I haven’t done anything since then, so why change his mind?

You've done a few things since then, most of which I read as town, but mostly I never found it all that scummy to begin with, it was just the only thing on the first three pages that caught my eye. If anyone hasn't found something better than that by now they are either forgetting to scumhunt or overreading that post grotesquely. Apozzle's continued fight with us on that point is far scummier than your initial post.

Chenoan is still scummy, and I want to see his answer to my question. Rach is a perfectly good wagon as well, that entrance was not super impressive to say the least. Otherwise, Elyse is still town and DBK continues to look better in my eye.

[Tajun]

Best Chen! Hope you are well, but these things are shitty and take time, so don't rush it.

Rach, let's hear some reads here.

[Tajun]

I'm happy to put her at L-1, but in case she self-hammers, we should choose a target for the (hypothetical) hider first. I suggest JacobSavage, for doing absolutely nothing and pulling no flak so far.

[Tajun]

To stop us from discussing things before you go down? Like, for example, who the hider should hide behind?

Better question: What are your reads?

[Tajun]

4) Hiding: For now, I recommend that we designate a highly ineffective individual to be hidden behind tonight, should we have a hider. The reason for this is that:
If the target is scum and we don't have a hider, it is neutral (ie nothing gained or lost).
If the target is scum and we have a hider, the hider will die and we will lynch the scum (net benefit).

If the target is town, the scum target him and we don't have a hider, they kill an ineffective player instead of an effective one. (net benefit)
If the target is town, the scum target him and we have a hider, they kill an ineffective player instead of an effective one, and we lose our hider. (net loss)
If the target is town, the scum don't target him and we don't have a hider, it is neutral.
If the target is town, the scum don't target him and we have a hider, we get a clear on a likely lynch. (Large net gain)

This should definitely be discussed (it is possible that I missed something, or that a superior strategy exists).

Are you serious? Did anyone read my posts?

[Tajun]

We

NEED

to discuss a hider. If a hider hides without us discussing it and he hits scum, then we lose him and gain

NOTHING

. We need to either figure out an effective strategy for a potential hider to use so that we gain something if he/she exists, or we need to order him/her not to hide. This is why I tried to start this discussion a fucking week ago, because I knew you guys would want to talk about it. I didn't predict that you idiots wouldn't actually READ my posts.

[Tajun]

Crumbing works fine. But we need to have a system in place.

[Tajun]

SUGGEST A BETTER PLAN

[Tajun]

Fine. You could have said that a week ago when I posted that at first, with the tagline

This should definitely be discussed (it is possible that I missed something, or that a superior strategy exists).

You know, if you wanted to not be a complete asshole.

[Tajun]

PS: Crumbing is a system.

[Tajun]

....... Fine. Please look at it day 3, if I happen to be dead at that point. Crumbing is fine. I tried to be clever, but if everyone hates the idea then that's good to know.

The most important point in those posts was telling townies not to fakeclaim. I know it shouldn't have to be said, but I've been in three games where it was an issue, some townie thought they were clever and ended up fucking the entire group.

Pedit: Explain BY and Pasch townreads please.

Vote Count

RachMarie-4-Does Bo Know, Paschendale, Elyse, Rubicon,
Chenoan-2-mutleyddmc, Tajun,
Tajun-2-JasonWazza, RachMarie,
KeyBladeWielder-1-Arcangel9,


Not voting:
JacobSavage, Autti, Chenoan, Blue Yoshi,

[Tajun]

BTW, I'm not trying to out a PR, which is GODDAMN OBVIOUS if you read my posts.

[Tajun]

7) Each day will have a deadline equal to the number of players multiplied times 3. This will be days=3n, where n=number of players.

Day 1 has begun. Deadline is set for 9 June 2013.

Yeah, pretty long.

[Tajun]

UNVOTE:

Probably going to vote Rach, but I`d like to hear the rest of her reads first.

[Tajun]

Congrats Rach!

I regret joining this game but am in it for the long haul.

Rach is typical Rach this game, so lynching her is not a very good idea. I am at a loss for words.

Super. Any better lynches you see?

[Tajun]

I never said Rach is town. All i said that she doesn't look very scummy to me and I didn't like the way the wagon was going, . Remember I am not defending her, I am pushing the wagon back to open more place to see the other oppurtunities. Its becoming traditional in everygame that someone starts wagon which ideally becomes a lynch wagon at the end of day.. Usually this wagon was pushed by couple of players only, rest of them just sheep, sheep and sheep into it.

ArcAngel is putting her neck out for Rach.

this looks like you're trying to pull out a case on me by connecting me to Rach... Very Oppurtunist!!!!!!

Don't like this one bit, although I'm not sure if it is newbieness or scummy. ArcAngel seems

way

too worried about being seen as defending Rach here.

Also, if Rach is scum, I'd be shocked if there wasn't a buddy bussing her right now, being as how she is almost certainly the lynch at this point.

I'll likely ask for a claim (intent to hammer yadda yadda) but I'd like to hear from Psyche first, as he's the only one who seems like he might have a relevant point against it. Also it would be nice to hear the rest of Rach's reads.

[Tajun]

VOTE: Rach Marie

congrats on your engagement you should go and enjoy it!

That was the hammer o snap UNVOTE:

Mutley dies tomorrow, regardless of how Rach flips. It was clear from his first post that he knew it was the hammer, the second is him pretending otherwise. He absolutely needs to die.

Pedit: Yup, not the only one who thought so.

[Tajun]

It wasn't the quickhammer or the reason, although those do bother me. It was the fact that he tried to pretend he didn't know it was a hammer, when his hammer post clearly indicated that he did. THAT is a mistake a newbie scum would make, one that I wouldn't expect to see from newb town.

[Tajun]

OK, slept on it. Mutley scum might hammer partner Rach, for towncred and to cut communication, but he probably wouldn't lie about it. No reason to hammer your partner for towncred then refuse to take it. SK makes no sense either, that was sketchy as all hell, and he would be getting the noose without that flip. As much as it pains me, he's probably town.

@DBK: I wanted to lynch him because it was FUCKING RIDICULOUSLY OBVIOUS that he was lying about the hammer. Seriously, he pretty much said "Goodbye Rach, I be hammerin!" How anyone could not see that is beyond me.

VOTE: Chenoan

For three main reasons:
1) The vote today, coupled with the comments yesterday. His vote today is bad, without any reasoning. I'm sure he'll say his reasons were LAL or something like that, but the fact remains that with Rach's flip such a vote needs to be discussed. This is especially true with the last part of his post yesterday,

I'm not in favor of a guaranteed lynch on him, but you better believe I'll be watching him insanely closely.

Then he votes him without reasoning today? Not liking this one bit.

@Elyse: I agree with the first two, to a degree, but Chen looked like he was following the crowd there. Doesn't buy him any towncred in my book.

2) Interactions with Rach/Apozzle, in both directions. Apozzle's reads on him were ridiculously weak (yeah, he's kind of scummy, but I'd rather lynch Player X (see posts 176, 179, 188 (annoyed with people going after Chen)). Rach went after me, instead of the (in my eyes) more obvious chen counterwagon, then ignored him completely.

In the other direction, post 273 and 290 are really weird taken together, and scummy as all hell with Rach's flip. I have no idea still why he would qualify Apozzle's replacing out as townie behaviour. Later on he also said

RachMarie: ~~~Her defenses are extremely weak. A lot of the logic doesn't seem to line up, but I need to look more critically first. Also her predecessor was on shaky ground already.

If he thought the predecessor was town, why say this? After that, he goes after her with

My strongest scumread is Rach, mainly because of the question dodging and jumping on the first new wagon that wasn't herself. But I want to see more before voting considering the amount of time we have.

and waits for a dozen posts to vote her (with no real further reasoning). It reads like a bus, which was dodged for as long as possible, then jumped on when necessary.

3) I already thought he was scummy, for the SK comment, and looking back I think his reads were pretty sheepy (I'll qualify this later if anyone cares).

[Tajun]

Bacde, literally a page ago I gave a case on Chenoan. At least read day 2 through, it's all of 60 posts long.

AA9 is a perfectly good wagon, although I prefer Chenoan right now.

I quoted the exact post which was my reason. If you couldn't tell what the reason was then I'm sorry for not being blatant enough, but I figured what I posted would be enough for people to understand. Mutley's start of the day was freaking absurd, and it hasn't gotten any better. I was also the first vote on him. Why does 1 vote need to be discussed? DBK then also voted for him, so why isn't that suspicious? I said I wasn't in favor of a guaranteed lynch on him, that meant based on the hammer alone, but his posting at daystart is more than just the hammer.

To clarify, do you think he is scummy for lying about the fact that it was a hammer originally, for reneging on that day 2, or for something that I am missing?

I wasn't liking Apozzle but then he actually replaced. I didn't expect scum to do that. That's the only thing that made me think he was townie, which is why I mentioned the predecessor being shaky ground.

You're new enough that I can accept this answer (to a degree), but for the future replacing out is definitely not a towntell. I still don't get what you mean though, you either thought he was town or scum, and it seems like you're trying to get the best of both here.

... this is a blatant misrep.
I posted the first comment in 437and then voted in 476. That's nearly 30 posts, not a dozen. I posted in 475 about agreeing with Elyse's assessment of Rach's reaction to my scumread on Jason. Also the random softclaim of Doctor in 463 bothered me a lot too.

More to come.

A dozen of

your

posts. 14 actually, but I didn't bother to count when I posted that. Any response to the actual accusation? You posted 8 times between the softclaim and the vote, why the wait?

[Tajun]

Bacde's entrance is crap, no question, but I have a bit of a hard time seeing it definitively coming from a scum mindset. Also if that is his meta I don't really see it as a point against him.

I did some research, looks like this is how the mass claim needs to go down:

Spoiler: Rainbowdash mass claim strategy in here, bitches

Ok.

RBDs theory ramblings number two - how to claim.

This is not as straightforward as I though it was going to be because of the "or" modifiers. It does tell us some stuff though, so thats awesome.

In C9++ you claim by tiers in a first pass, and I think we can at least try it here, it makes the K and P roles safer claims, but it should work and be minimal risk.

If you are a role that only shows up if more than one letter appears, in a massclaim on the first pass you claim tier two. If you exist at only one letter, tier one. If VT of course VT. While Doc and Vig can appear at tier one, its mildly unlikely for that to be the case.

What this does is force scum to either pick low tier roles, or high tier ones that possibly cant exist.

Once all tiers have been claimed, we again pass through for claiming, this time the tier two role claim first. This can catch scum who claims a T2 role that cant exist, forcing them to play it conservatively and risk being countered by a T1 role.

For example, scum claims T2, and then claims Commuter. If there is no Hider, confirmed scum. If they clam T1 and claim hider then there is a second hider claim, one of the two is scum.

Claiming in this game needs to happen D2, it probably could work right now but if the number of roles is low its not worth it. The only downside is so many players dont know what to do in this setup, in the offchance scum has somepony who knows what to claim they can convey that to any clueless partners overnight. It simply comes down to "Do we have a lot of roles" and I am not happy making that assumption.

There are seven players in this game

Code: Select all

    Red
    Orange
    Yellow
    Blue
    Green
    Purple
    White

We start with a tier massclaim and get the following

Code: Select all

    Red - T1
    Orange - VT
    Yellow - VT
    Blue - T2
    Green - T2
    Purple - T1
    White - T1

Now we have the T2 players, Blue and Green claim. It now looks like

Code: Select all

    Red - T1
    Orange - VT
    Yellow - VT
    Blue - T2 - Doctor
    Green - T2 - Commuter
    Purple - T1
    White - T1

Now come the T1 claims (scummiest first -> popcorn)

Code: Select all

    Red - T1 - Jailkeeper
    Orange - VT
    Yellow - VT
    Blue - T2 - Doctor
    Green - T2 - Commuter
    Purple - T1 - Jailkeeper
    White - T1 - Vengeful

At this point we look at the setup for what can and cant be true. Green has to be lying and is scum, since there is no hider. Purple and Red cannot both be the Jailkeeper, so one is lying.

I should probably point out that RBD was scum that game. I looked through it and I *think* it was all legit (and it is very similar to the strategy she proposed as town in my C9++ with her), but someone else take a look and make sure it doesn't have any serious flaws.

To clarify, do you think he is scummy for lying about the fact that it was a hammer originally, for reneging on that day 2, or for something that I am missing?

Both. I do not see the actual town motivation for pulling a shenanigan like that.

But what is the scum motivation? Lying about a hammer you know is going to be good makes no sense whatsoever, unless I am missing something. Today's stuff screams newbie to me, unless he got tutoring in the scum QT.

Aaand in 606 and 608, both AA9 and Chen look scummy as hell. Chen's could just be frustration though.

[Tajun]

@Rubicon: The idea is simple enough. The more PRs we have, the earlier we should do a massclaim. If we have very few, then we should wait until later, because they will likely start to die once we out them. But even then they are useful clears and their info gets shared by everyone, letting us narrow down scum. With more, we need more time to distinguish good claims from fake claims, and the scum can't kill them all pre-endgame, even if we go a day earlier. It should be day three I think atp, although if there are no kills tonight day 4 might be better. Pasch is right that it is secondary to good scumhunting, but in this setup it is a useful tool.

Anyway,
UNVOTE:
VOTE: ArcAngel9

I still want to pressure Chenoan, but this is a better wagon right now. That case on Chen is terrible, on top of everything else.

[Tajun]

No we are not. Arc is just being Arc. We are lynching Chen.

If you have any meta to share, now is the time. (links would be nice)

cmon guys whats going on why is everyone saying different things

I want you to die. Read the cases you clown. Then, *gasp*, form your own opinion? It's called mafia, try playing it sometime.

Anyone have meta on Bacde? Is he this lazy and incompetent as town and scum, or is this alignment indicative?

[Tajun]

Uh oh, the guy who can't be bothered to read the thread and doesn't understand why players in mafia are disagreeing is mad at me.

Now

I'm in trouble.

I skimmed AA9's ISOs in those games. I see a highly active player who gave out a fair number of reads. I see neither of those things here. This is most certainly not swaying my vote.

[Tajun]

Here's a crazy thought AA9. Why don't

you

try making a case for a change? And no, "Chen is scum because he thinks I am scummy" does not qualify.

[Tajun]

woah dude why are you being so antagonistic to a guy who seriously forgot he was even in this game

I don't think anything I've said has warranted this level of sarcasm from you

That's fair. I apologize. It's more of a general annoyance at everyone at this point, no one seems to be doing much.

VOTE: Chenoan

EZ

Some kind of a justification at least would be nice.

[Tajun]

RBD!!! Always good to have you.

I doubt the JW kill was vig, a lot of people had him as town.

[Tajun]

Busy, but a couple of quick thoughts:

RBD, chances are fairly good we don't have a superpowerful town (likely 3 or so PRs). What is the advantage to doing this tonight and not tomorrow? I don't see it offhand.

Also, please explain Chen town read.

[Tajun]

Don't much like RBD's Elyse case, but I don't see it as scummy. Elyse's reactions page 28 are all town.

Bacde's RBD push is an obvious vendetta from another game; it's crap but it's probably town crap.

@Pasch: Arc and Chen are both scummy as hell. I can't really decide which is scummier, but Chen has responded to pressure and I think it's Arc's turn. So far? Not impressed.

@Rubicon: The AA9 case is mostly yesterdays "Rach is probably town but I'm not defender her or anything" crap. Elyse is right, that is lynchworthy on its own. RBD is playing to her meta, both as town and scum. It's not lynchworthy. I'm willing to give JacobSavage more time, he has been V/LA if I recall.

@RBD: I think you're outvoted. Personally, I don't think doing it today will be advantageous over tomorrow. We'll have more info as well then. Any thoughts on AA9?

@Everyone else: Anyone against a massclaim tomorrow (other than RBD and JS)?

[Tajun]

No. I want to do it tomorrow, I think RBD is overthinking things here. Even if her reads are right, I don't think it costs us much to wait a day and hope the scum don't see it/target someone else. I see no evidence of a sufficiently powerful town to warrant it now. Also, even if she dies tonight (which I don't read as all that likely atm), several of us understand the system well enough to interpret the results accurately tomorrow, so that point is moot as well.

[Tajun]

You literally voted her before she had posted.

Vote Count

ArcAngel9-3-Elyse, chenoan, Tajun,
Elyse-2-Rainbowdash, ArcAngel9,
Rainbowdash-2-Bacde, Rubicon,
chenoan-1-Paschendale,


Not Voting:
JacobSavage, Psyche, mutleyddmc,

[Tajun]

You literally voted her before she had posted.

I also voted her after she had posted

whats your point?

That, just maybe, you are being influenced by previous feelings and not rational thoughts on her play?

Maybe you should be voting so I can hammer again

Town read on you gone. This is disingenuous, it reads like scum who got called town for bad behaviour once looking to get it again. IGMEOY.

[Tajun]

Mutley, could you explain the Bacde vote?

Don't much like the Elyse wagon, still got a townread on her. It's weakened a bit, but I'm not seeing her as half as scummy as several others. I'd definitely like to hear from Chenoan's (presumptive) replacement before this lynch, even it is going.

[Tajun]

in fact, I feel dumb for getting in a tiff w/ Tajun upon replace-in because now I have a really nice townread on Tajun too

Actually I wouldn't be surprised if Elyse/Tajun are a scumteam

Why the change of heart?

[Tajun]

RBD's case on Elyse isn't terrible, but it's not as strong as she seems to think. I specifically tried to reverse Elyse's read on Chen, and the turnaround was not particularly unreasonable (this is by far the best part of the case though, and I am questioning my read a bit here). The massclaim comments are weak at best, almost no one thinks that it is a good idea today, myself included. I don't follow the SK business at all. My case for her towniness is pretty well pure gut, her feelings have reflected my own at enough times that I'd be pretty surprised by a scum flip. Also I really don't like the number of people on this lynch for weak/terrible reasons.

@Light-kun: Could we get prods on JacobSavage, Rubicon and Chenoan? Also, rumour has it that Chenoan has siteflaked, so there is a decent chance we need a replacement there.

[Tajun]

Yikes. Glad to hear you are all right.

We've got a bit over a week before deadline. Currently, I'm not keen on lynching anyone other than AA9 and chen/replacement. Frankly though, we really

really

need more people around to decide better. I have townreads on most of the active posters, and it would be extremely annoying if we let scum lurk their way to victory here.

[Tajun]

AA9, what were you trying to accomplish with this gambit?

[Tajun]

That was the gambit I am referring to. Please explain what you were meaning to accomplish with it.
No I am not.

[Tajun]

As I see it we either lynch RBD or we massclaim

either we trust RBD and go all-out and massclaim

or we lynch the shit out of her right now

because she IS better than us, and she KNOWS what she is talking about, and for some reason all of yall want to disagree with her about literally BREAKING THE GAME but not lynch her for it? Fucking choose--she's either town and knows exactly what she's talking about, or she's scum and trying to sink her hoof into all of our faces

This is seriously a ridiculous argument. She has been saying this in other games in similar situations, that as town she supports early massclaims. I believe it is what she thinks, and I do see her reasons. That doesn't mean I agree though, and I'm certainly not going with "RBD is a genius let's all sheep her."

Long story short, I don't see us as strong enough to warrant it, but I can see the advantages either way. Another issue is timing though, like RBD said we should do it early if we are going to, and with half the town disappearing repeatedly I don't see it working.

[Tajun]

You know what I think is ridiculous?

People who hear RBD saying "WE CAN BREAK THIS GAME FOR TOWN" and don't think one of two things:

1) We should listen to RBD

2) We should lynch RBD

This probably won't break the game. In the off chance that it would (in a 5+ PR scenario it is fairly plausible) it will almost certainly do so tomorrow as well. There are advantages and disadvantages to the proposed MC today. What RBD is saying is that she feels the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. What I am saying is that I disagree. Nothing about this is ridiculous. What is ridiculous is you refusing to think for yourself about whether this is a good idea and saying that our only options are to listen to her or lynch her.

So we are clear, the advantages are (as I see them):
We learn roughly what setup we are in.
We limit the lynch pool.
We coordinate night actions.
We prevent scum in trouble from claiming power.
We can target people who we believed were power if they claim vanilla.

Disadvantages:
Scum can coordinate night actions more effectively as well.
Any Hider is likely useless.
Scum get an extra shot at our PRs.
Scum can target higher priority PRs first.

Did I miss anything?

RBD is definitely correct that we should do this asap today if we are going to, so I say we vote on it and go through with it if the yes votes win. Any issues with taking a vote?

[Tajun]

Vote: No massclaim

For all the reasons Tajun laid out.

I'm down to lynch RBD.

Funny you should say that... After laying down the reasons in black and white and sitting on them for a few minutes, I'm actually game for the massclaim. The disadvantages sounded worse in my head, and I'd like to watch RBD try to break this setup (especially if she is scum ).

On Rubicon: I might be game for that lynch, he has been coasting a fair deal. I'd like to hear from AA9 and Chen's replacement first though, because they both still register as

way

scummier than him IMO.

All he is doing is full posting and avoiding taking any real solid stance on anything but "massclaim is bad" echoing Tajun (who is actually wrong on one point - any hider that hid N1 should no longer take any action outside of strong town role coordinating)

Do you mean this regardless of whether we massclaim or not?

[Tajun]

I should point out that there is absolutely nothing scummy about RBD wanting to MC today, she literally dealt with this

exact

situation postgame in another game.

Ok side note then since its theory

Massclaim in this game is best early, but not D1.

If all deaths are scum/VT, it works D2 very well.

When there are PR deaths it better to delay a bit... but I would never say later than D3. Really was unsure of if it was good or not to massclaim D1 from scum perspective since there were obvious PRs out there. Shoulda driven myself N1 with a VT like I was debating for a little.

@Bit - Why would you ever kill MS night one? Scum needed to wipe him out more than you did, killing JF would have been far better, even if it gave away existance of a SK.

^See bold.

The other points against her are meh. I was not surprised by the JW kill, but I was planning to give him some grief the next day, so I can certainly see RBD's point.

Vote: No massclaim

For all the reasons Tajun laid out.

I'm down to lynch RBD.

Funny you should say that... After laying down the reasons in black and white and sitting on them for a few minutes, I'm actually game for the massclaim. The disadvantages sounded worse in my head, and I'd like to watch RBD try to break this setup (especially if she is scum ).

Well, I'm listening. Convince me.

Mostly, I see one player out there who I am pretty convinced is power as well. If I see it, there is a good chance the scum do, so that nullifies point

Scum get an extra shot at our PRs.

Loosing effectiveness of our hider would hurt a bit, but after RBD's comment I'm not convinced one should continue to hide anyway (frankly, I haven't been in enough games with hiders to know them all that well, as was evidenced day 1).
Us being able to coordinate PR actions is better than them being able to do the same, on average.
Which leaves point 4,

Scum can target higher priority PRs first.

This hurts, a lot, but getting the clears and learning if my PR read is correct probably out does it. The preventing scum from claiming PR's if they are going down is a huge bonus.

Also, in our most likely setup (I'll discuss which this is after the claims), it is fairly ambiguous as to whether a MC is better today or tomorrow. I'll be very surprised if it is game breaking, but I don't think it will hurt us much either.

[Tajun]

Hey all. I recognise half of you half as well as I should; and I recognise less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

Sitrep?

Welcome. Right now, the town is leading with one scum lynched and one townie killed. We're debating a massclaim, you can see the arguments for and against over the last couple pages. RBD and Elyse are having a "who can call the other scummy for the sillier reason" contest. And, you're replacing Chenoan, so I think you are scum .

Deadline was scheduled for Monday (the 1st) but I think with the blackout and the flaking issue we'll get a couple days extension. Most immediate issue is massclaim, we're holding a vote on whether to do it today or not, and it's pretty tight right now.

[Tajun]

Sorry, I've scrolled through your iso but I can't find the post where you lay down your reasons to massclaim. A little help..?

I put down the case for and against here, and changed my mind on it because of that here. I think it is fairly accurate.

@AA9: What do you think of massclaim? Also, please explain what your plan was by pretending you thought Elyse was scum.

@RBD: Please don't make me tell you why this:

Or I could just out the two players who im almost positive are PRs. That would work too

is an awful idea. There's nothing scummy about it, but it is by far the stupidest thing I have ever seen you say. FTR, we are

not

going that route.

Vote Count

ArcAngel9-2-chenoan, Tajun,
Rainbowdash-2-Bacde, Rubicon,
Paschendale-2-Elyse, ArcAngel9,
Elyse-1- Paschendale,
Rubicon-1-Rainbowdash,


Not Voting:
JacobSavage, Psyche, mutleyddmc,

[Tajun]

Ok... Massclaim has become an all-encompassing waste of time, and as far as I can tell it doesn't really matter much whether we do it today or tomorrow. If anyone has a guilty (track to JW, track on someone visiting two people, rolecop JOAT or bus driver or gunsmith carrier) they should claim today (or at least crumb it). Otherwise, I don't really care whether we do this today or tomorrow anymore.

SafetyDance is pinging my scumdar, just gut (along with replacing into a scummy slot). 938 seems too sheepy and kinda forced. Didn't like 931 all that much either. Still cool with this lynch.

I will vote pasch when the time is right

If you lay down another quickhammer I am blacklisting you.

Guys. I've hit the motherload. I have to figure out how to apply it, but — <3

Piqued my curiosity.

[Tajun]

Here's the deal. I now have the ability to do a 200-game study on how town/scum have used any set of words. I can do other stuff, too, but it only takes me ~4 minutes to do a "set of words" study. I have already done a study on single words and am currently in the process of learning how to figure out if a finding is statistically significant.

Anyone have any ideas relevant to this game that I can use this ability for?

(For the record, "scumdar" and "quickhammer" are both weak scumtells.)

Damn you science!!!

On another note, do "gut". I'm

really

curious whether scum or town prefer that particular gauge.

[Tajun]

Reasoning is just gut you can explain...

And this is why I love having RBD around.

[Tajun]

To be absolutely clear, the T1 roles are:
Tracker
Jailkeeper
Doctor
Hider
Vengeful
Vigilante
Role Cop

T2:
Gunsmith
1-Shot Commuter
1-Shot Tracker

This isn't what I said day 1. Ignore that. This is correct, right? You

know

someone will screw this up if it isn't in black and white.

[Tajun]

Actually, better change that to gunsmith as T1 as well. RBD's criterion is that T2 is a role which cannot exist without a T1 existing as well, which puts that there too.

I actually don't like this much. RBD, is there a good reason for putting this much weight into the T1 claims?

[Tajun]

SafetyDance is pinging my scumdar, just gut (along with replacing into a scummy slot). 938 seems too sheepy and kinda forced. Didn't like 931 all that much either. Still cool with this lynch.

Tell me, if I had said the exact same thing as Elyse, but worded it differently, would that give me a town read from you? How was 938 forced? I'd like to hear reasons because it's basically my thoughts on the main issue at the moment and if I've read the thread correctly, it's a similar opinion that you had...until you started sheeping. So by your own logic, I should strongly consider putting you in my lynch pile with all the other cool kids.

What's not to like about 931? What did you take out of MD trolling and AA's ignorance?

It's not really that... I dunno, you seemed to take a full page to give no real new insights into the game. From where I am sitting, it seems like active lurking. The discomfort that everyone has about RBD's vig comments still annoys me, and you seem to imply that she is scummy without making any actual accusations.

As for MD and AA, all I see from that conversation is that MD is an ass and AA isn't paying proper attention. Both of those are alignment neutral, I'm afraid.

[Tajun]

VOTE: SafetyDance
Thought I had already done this. His posting's not so bad, but combine it with Chenoan and it is the read I am most sure of (Made my case on Chen here). I don't see Pasch being all that scummy here.

I call it reading and absorbing 40 fucking pages but each to their own. But why bother eh?

You'll have to expand on "everyone". I only remember Bacde bringing it up after she said it. 2 people don't make a crowd, let alone close to a majority to quantify that statement.

Rubicon as well. I thought Elyse, but I can't find that, so probably just me combining that and MC in my mind. "Everyone" was pushing it, I grant you, but my point stands; you were trying to paint her posting as scummy without making an actual accusation.

[Tajun]

Actually, on reread I don't like 1004 at all. Eh, Pasch lynch could be a lot worse.

@Elyse: Claim VT for vanilla, T2 for 1-shot tracker or commuter, and T1 for another PR, then popcorn it to the next person (choose who claims next, if anyone is unfamiliar with the term).

[Tajun]

Second reread; If anyone doesn't know why Elyse is against MC at this point they are not trying very hard at all. Also, Elyse is very

very

obvtown at this point. I'm cool with a Pasch lynch pending massclaim results.

[Tajun]

VT. JacobSavage, you're up.

[Tajun]

5 of 6 as VTs is a result I do not believe.

You think it contains scum, or fakeclaiming town, or both?

[Tajun]

Possible. Still want to know the results first. SafetyDance, please finish this insanity already.

[Tajun]

Welcome Zaicon. Thank you very much for taking this over.

[Tajun]

Oh, and I am fine with RBD staying on, I trust her integrity.

[Tajun]

Whoop, right,

UNVOTE:

for obvious reasons.

[Tajun]

Also, does anyone want to list the claimed roles?

Bacde - Hider
Psyche - Doctor
Rubicon - Gunsmith
JacobSavage/Replacement - Waiting
Others - VT

[Tajun]

I had JacobSavage as power or scum. I wanted to figure out which early on. You would have been my second choice.

[Tajun]

I had JacobSavage as power or scum. I wanted to figure out which early on. You would have been my second choice.

You're actually admitting to rolefishing? There is no town-logic to that. I also can't see anywhere where you had thoughts Jacob was scum.

Vote: Tajun

Come again? I called Jacob on being quiet and getting away with doing nothing day 1. This is usually either PR or scum. Day 2 he was even more so. I didn't push it because I thought there was a decent chance he was power (especially after 558) and didn't want to out him. Why would I not call on him early in the MC?

[Tajun]

Dear. God. No.

A gunsmith requires two Rs. Why has no one read the setup properly? The claimed roles give us PPHRRTT. RBD, you're supposed to be one of the smart ones...

Four possibilities:

a) All PR claims are good. No SK, scum used one of RB, Strongman or bus driver to bypass protection on JW.
b) One of JS, Bacde or Psyche fakeclaimed, we have an SK and one kill was blocked (or both hit the same person).
c) Rubicon fakeclaimed, no SK, strongman or RB used to bypass protection.
d) Two of JS, Bacde or Psyche fakeclaimed, no SK, strongman or RB used to bypass protection.

Option c) is massively unlikely, gunsmith claim would be a very risky choice, since it can't be expected to coexist with a RC (awfully unlikely anyway), and Rubicon was awfully eager to get it out there. Option d) is even less likely, both scum claiming PRs? Nah.

b) and a) are both possible. My money is on a), but we'll likely know soon enough whether we have an SK and need to look through our PR's for the odd man out. Either way, SafetyDance is effectively clear.

Rubicon shouldn't target the PRs. Target VTs.

[Tajun]

Is there a setup reason to think there's not two PRs lying or is it just "why would they do that"?

It wouldn't be smart. Like, at all. I don't have them as geniuses, but that would really be terribad.

Also, if the claims are all true, these results make the scum more likely to be in those who opposed MC, since I made a fairly big deal about it being a good idea to massclaim early if we were strong, and the scum would know that was the case.

[Tajun]

Afraid that was your fault RBD, you said "T2 is a role that CANNOT exist without a T1 existing." and "T1 roles are ones that do not require anything else in the game to exist." This is

why

I questioned you on it. Why does nobody read my bloody posts?

I'm actually cool with a Mutt lynch at this point, or Pasche. Why not Mutt, RBD?

[Tajun]

And yeah, Bacde should not act unless we two kills one of these nights.

[Tajun]

Oh, and just in case people miss it, if we get a Bus Driver flip at any point all five of those people are confirmed town (The four PR claims and SafetyDance).

[Tajun]

Oh, and Taj, what possible reason do you have for wanting to lynch me? Elyse and AA whining and complaining? Come up with a decent reason and I'll refute it for you.

I'll bite. The most recent example is in your previous post:

Honestly, I find the results of this massclaim a lot less useful than I expected. I think it helped scum a lot more than it helped town. I'd be fine lynching Dashie, too. I don't see the game as broken at all. I see a handful of PRs outed, and their abilities understood. There's even talk of directing the PRs. Hell no.

So, you're disappointed with the results (which were as good as we could reasonably expect (5 pseudo-clears? What the hell were people expecting that would beat this?) and actually quite good, although they could be better) and therefore you want to lynch the person who initiated it? If you had thought it through beforehand, you would have known what to expect. I don't like your attack on RBD here

at all

, it is opportunistic as fuck.

Let's see... I enjoy SafetyDance's case of your bussing at the end of this page as well.

But admittedly, both of these things came after my comment, and so are only additional reasons to kill you. My previous ones are taking issue with your Elyse stance. What is her anti-town behaviour you speak of? She has been giving reads, attacking scummy players, and has come off more town than anyone in my eyes. Your biggest issue with her seemed to be that she was taking issue with the massclaim, a stand which you now

support

(see above). You claimed that she gave no reasons for this stance, which is demonstrably false. And you attacked her by repeating over an over how scummy she is, without giving anything close to evidence of this fact. Her case on you is looking better by the second.

Why a me lynch Tajun?

You annoy me. More to the point, you haven't even been pretending to scumhunt, and I never got everyone's town read on KBW.

[Tajun]

Would like to hear some suggestions from people as to what the best plan is to come up with for night actions and clearing/saving PRs.

Who does the GS try to clear?
Who does the Hider go behind?

Etc.

Hider doesn't hide. Rubicon chooses a VT claim, most definitely without telling us who. Doc and JK should target on their own, otherwise scum know who to kill. We discuss further tomorrow when we have more info. Simple.

[Tajun]

I've never played this setup before, nor really did a massclaim before in any setup. Dashie built it up like it was going to make a huge difference. Yes, 5 pseudo clears is nice, but it didn't really alter the landscape much. I don't see it as impossible that some of the claims were fake. And reducing our lynchpool to just the people who claimed VT looks like a surefire way to protect a fake claimed scum. It seems far too limiting. That it looks like several people seem to have pulled my name out of a hat to lynch doesn't help either. Not to mention that no one I had a strong read on are the ones who claimed. My own view of who to vote for was almost totally unaffected by the massclaim.

There is a decent chance that there is a fakeclaim in there, but if there is then there is very likely an SK as well, so the scum are in a crossfire position now. It was a very good idea to do, it worked out better than I had expected. The choice of who to vote for is a secondary issue, the scum now have no real room to maneuver and we will know a lot tomorrow.

What case? He just said the word "bussing" as if that's enough to prove anything. It's still an associative tell on unflipped slots. It's a terrible reason to vote for someone, even if it weren't totally unsupported.

No, it's an associative tell on a flipped slot. Which is a fantastic reason to vote someone.

So, most of your reason to vote for me came AFTER you did it? And the rest is for pointing out obvscum Elyse? She's given empty reads based on nothing, put no real effort into anyone except me or ArcAngel

(who you might remember that I defended from that attack)

. Yes, I've been talking more about Elyse than others... because the game completely stalled and half the playerbase disappeared and hasn't been contributing. Yourself included. Besides the massclaim, there's been precious little else to talk about today.

I supported the massclaim because I trusted Dashie. Now that it is obvious that it was oversold, I don't trust her as much. How is that duplicitous?

Bold part: Why did you do that? That attack was correct in almost every sense. Whether AA9 is scum or not, Elyse's arguments to the effect look very town. What you did looks a hell of a lot like white knighting to me. You even said

I really want to like this. It's frankly a compelling case. Especially the actions around Rach.

about her case. Then voted her 4 posts later? I don't get it, at all.

Bold part 2- RBD said:

It ranges from a worst case giving us a few cleared players and the immediate optimization of all roles to a best case of catching scum or opening what essentially could be a forced win.

I said:

Also, in our most likely setup (I'll discuss which this is after the claims), it is fairly ambiguous as to whether a MC is better today or tomorrow. I'll be very surprised if it is game breaking, but I don't think it will hurt us much either.

What were you expecting out of massclaim??? Did you not note that it might not give us a whole lot? How could you have missed that? And now you have buyers remorse?

I'm not sure what is worse: That you can't see the quality information that massclaim has bought us, or that you actually consider "I trusted an unflipped slot who sort of made fantastic claims that turned out to be slightly worse than I had hoped now I want to lynch it" a defence.

BTW, I haven't voted you. I said I was cool with your lynch. This hasn't dissuaded me.

[Tajun]

Also: Mutley's lack of comment on the massclaim followed by saying we should lynch RBD for it is also highly sketchy. Him being a lazy clown I don't read to much into it, but it is worth the note.

[Tajun]

Tajun, why is me voting for Apozzle more suspicious than anyone else doing so? SD didn't offer any reasons why my vote ought to be suspect. And yes, I did that there was some potential truth to Elyse's argument against AA, but the bulk of it was simply attacking her playstyle. Anyone who has played with AA before knows that she acts like this regardless of her alignment. She's usually lynched early, and it seldom really proves anything.

Fair point about the vote on Apozzle, but that is a sidenote. Any response to my accusation of white-knighting? It looks an

awful

lot like you are trying to take town cred for it in 1172. Why should we give that to you, when we don't even know AA's alignment yet?

And why is being underwhelmed by the results of the massclaim suddenly duplicitous? What does that possibly have to do with my alignment? I get the "that seems weird", but not what scum motivation there would be to support the massclaim and then be disillusioned with it now. Maybe I was sloppy to support it so loudly before, but a mistake does not a scum make, especially a minor one like this. I wanted to see how it would play out, and thought that the risk was worthwhile. And then the return was uninspiring, because it didn't really alter my position very much. My suspects stayed my suspects. The only thing that seems to have changed at all from the massclaim is that people heard Elyse whining about me long enough to give in to her.

I don't like the fact that you said you would be willing to lynch RBD right after because it hadn't turned out well (in your opinion). That is incredibly opportunistic, regardless of what you thought results might be.

I'm ready to hammer. Anyone got anything else to add?

[Tajun]

About two days left RBD. Not to be unkind, you can take that time if you like, but deadline fast approaches.

[Tajun]

Maybe... Still not sure about Pasche, but his frustration has seemed pretty town. Seriously don't like going after RBD for the results of MC, but there is someone who deserves the noose at least as much as him.

VOTE: Mutleyddmc

He's just as scummy, and a hell of a lot less useful.

[Tajun]

No one is no lynching, I'll switch over if necessary. But you're reaction to this is pure scum, and I'm coming after you tomorrow if I can't get you today.

[Tajun]

A couple of reasons. PoE, as much as I hate it, is partially to blame. We are lynching a VT claim today, no question there. I obviously vote against lynching myself. I've had a townread on Elyse since moment one, and in all truth the only serious thing I can see against her is the result of the MC, which is both a terrible reason to vote someone and still not fully known (whether there is a fakeclaim, that is). RBD is plausible scum, but we will know a lot more about her alignment in the days ahead (I won't elaborate until tomorrow, for reasons that will be clear then). AA9 is... well, AA9. I could work with that lynch as well, but it sounds supportless.

The fact that he made no comments about MC then tried to lynch RBD for the results is truly, truly awful. Like, worse than your buyer's remorse, he didn't even try to comment ahead of time. His hammer yesterday still pisses me off, and he is a loose cannon that is a threat to the town even if he is in it.

Didnt realise that you had to play in a certain way. Anyway surely those trying to switch to lynches that won't happen are ridicolously scummy. We can't NL. Yet that's what some people are doing. How people think today you will get a lynch on me is unreal. I hammered scum, I get at least one day free. Just going for a NL really by going off pasch

This is really ugly as well. I get one day free for hammering scum? Hmmm... Gotta go with no on that one. He hasn't scumhunted, his comments are ridiculous, and he thinks for some reason that he is above lynching. The first time he makes a halfways thought out comment (the one above) it is out of pure, uncompromised self-preservation. This guy needs to die.

Pedit: Eh, I'll be around all day. If necessary I'll switch over, but I've seen stranger lynch day turnarounds.

[Tajun]

You going to have to scum. You think you are gunna start a new lynch with 11 hours left. I hope you don't switch and implicate yourself

So in other words, your claim is "useless lump" until someone comes after you. Cya tomorrow.

VOTE: Paschendale

Pedit: It has not been a pretty game, I'm with you there.

[Tajun]

K. Here-ish. I want to know why Bacde, RBD, GM are not on the wagon and just what their alternatives are for the day and why Psyche claimed 'Town' yet left his vote.

Constant disappearances and cold feet is noted from you all (incl Tajun) and the fact that you all can't be scum, well you should feel ashamed if Town.

My deep apologies for trying to offer town a better alternative. Let's hear your thoughts on Mutley while we're at it.

[Tajun]

Gut says Pasche's odds have gone down, Mutley's scumtastic response says his odds have increased. Doesn't matter much anymore, we'll discuss it tomorrow.

Pedit: Above was at SD.

[Tajun]

Interesting kill. Let's hear from our PRs on actions.

[Tajun]

VOTE: Psyche
I agree. If any of the PRs are lying, it's him.

That's a big if, one which currently has no evidence to support it.

I am bored with thsi game anywayz
lets get done with this

VOTE: Psyche

That's a terrible, terrible reason to vote someone.

SD, please reread Psyche, he claimed a protect on Mutley.

Need to hear from Bacde.

Meantime, tell me, does everyone still see me and cleared town? There were no objections yesterday because it's right, right?

Pretty much. There are scenarios where you are scum (Lying Rubicon claimed his partner, Scum busdrove you night one) but they are all fairly unlikely.

Also Psyche is certainly going to die tonight(?) if he's town and doesn't keep protecting random VTs who are possibly scum. So lynching him today is suboptimal.

This.

Tentatively I say still no SK, so both scum are likely in Elyse, Mutley, AA9. Ironically those three all voted a claimed PR with terrible reasons on this very page. Prefer Mutley lynch right now, but let's hear from Bacde first.

[Tajun]

Quite possible. Psyche isn't clear though, he is just a terrible lynch today.

[Tajun]

Thanks again for all the work this game Light-kun. Any word from Titus?

[Tajun]

GM is a Jailkeeper. We don't have a SK or any knowledge of one. Therefore GM can only exist in this setup with the letters PP, which is linked to Psyche, so he is acutally clear. No SK also means that Bacde is also clear. So GM's death isn't in vain because maf have now given us two more clears, we now know with a lot of confidence that the setup is out of PPHRRTT or PPHTTTT depending on Rubicon's alignment and we can figure that out easy enough anyway and to cap it off 3 people have derpingly jumped onto one of the pr's. That is our lynchpool for the day.

That's only true if there is no SK, which, while likely true, is not definitive. We should not lynch him without evidence of one, but calling him "clear" is misleading, because with one P we have a JK

or

Doc, not strictly doc. Again, only definitive if we assume no SK.

[Tajun]

Seriously? Ok, on point a) I will say I am sick to shit of correcting people who can't read the god-damn wiki on this setup, and note that in my next post after yours I

did

say he wasn't clear. On point b), it should be bloody obvious, but for those who aren't paying

any

attention, if we believe all the PR claims, then we have

Bacde: Clear by virtue of being a PR
Psyche: Ditto
Rubicon: Double ditto
SafetyDance: Cleared by Rubicon
Titus: Also cleared by Rubicon
Me: Not voting myself

And...
Elyse, Mutley, AA9 - Not clear, not clear, not clear.

Obviously there are scenarios where this is not the case.

Scenario 1: There is an SK. One of the factions has failed to kill both nights. Possible reasons:
1) Doc blocks. Assuming the SK chose 1-night bulletproof, both factions can have their kills blocked by docs or JKs. I don't see why anyone would have targeted Mutley last night, but we don't know who GM targeted. Could have RBed the shot, could have saved the man. No way to tell.
2) Maf targeted the SK, 1-shot BP.
3) Maf RBed the SK.
4) Both parties targeted the same player.
5) One party (SK most likely) chose to hide (not kill). This isn't as implausible as it sounds, in my C9++ game as SK I was praying that only one kill went through each night, since town had no idea I existed.
6) A combination of the above (one for each night).

This is moderately unlikely (both nights is fairly improbable), but you never know.

Scenario 2: Rubicon is lying. In this case, we have only 3 PR tickets and neither of Titus of yourself is clear. Incidentally, if this is the case I would wager good money that you are town (as I doubt he would try to clear his partner day 1) and that Titus is scum (considering how strongly we cleared you on his evidence). I will discuss this possibility more tomorrow, today it is relatively unimportant.

Odds are again moderately low, for the reasons I posted before I tend to believe his claim.

Scenario 3: Rubicon had his target bus driven one of the nights. This is the scenario I am most afraid of, mostly because it is almost a certain loss for us if it is the case. If he is town, his clears should never be lynched, because of the low probability of this occurrence.


If you want specific evidence against those three, look at my ISO for a case on Mutley, Elyse's for a case on AA9, and I don't have one on Elyse. She was on my list for the strict reason that she is not clear (or pseudo-clear), no other.

[Tajun]

I wouldn't bet against one of the PR's lying. I know people will hate this incredibly WIFOM reasoning, but if we assume that everyone is telling the truth, then yesterday's kill was BRUTALLY bad for the scum. I'm not going to tell them what to do, cause I really don't want to help them, but it was truly idiotic, and I really hope that there is something going on beyond the obvious. Unfortunately, I have had bad experiences with overestimating my opponents, and I really can't assume that they wouldn't be that stupid. I do hope that that one of scenarios one through three is true though, I have sufficiently little faith in mankind as it is.

In answer to your question, the GS would find someone to have a gun if they were Maf or SK, regardless of whether they had ever personally committed a kill. It is a very powerful role.

PEdit: Welcome, Scott. This town induces pain. Best of luck.

PEdit2: Also, welcome Titus. See Scott comment.

[Tajun]

ArcAngel9 - VT
Scott Brosius/Bacde - T1 (but no specific role I saw)
Psyche - Doctor
Titus - VT
Rubicon - Gunsmith
SafetyDance - VT
Tajun - VT

Everyone, do I have this right? I'm pretty sure this is right, but while the game is at a slow point I want to be sure.

These are right, but you missed

Elyse - VT
Mutleyddmc - VT

and Scott Brosius is a claimed Hider. Any chance you hid last night, on that note?

Vote Count
Psyche-1-mutleyddmc,
mutleyddmc-1-Elyse,
ArcAngel9-1-Titus
Titus-1- ArcAngel9,


Not Voting: ArcAngel9, Bacde, Elyse, Muttleydmc Psyche, antihero, SafetyDance, Tajun

[Tajun]

Alright, currently preferring an AA9 or possibly Mutley lynch. Both are scummy, I prefer AA9 because she is a danger to this town even if she is part of it.

[Tajun]

His "didn't know it was a hammer" was clearly a lie. Read his hammer post, he basically says "goodbye". Also against him is his sketchy as hell behaviour yesterday evening and his general lack of having done anything. AA9 is almost as bad though, give her a read through as well.

[Tajun]

And Tajun, why are you telling people what role they are? People should be claiming that themselves.

I thought about that, but frankly I consider it trolling to lie to someone who is replacing in and see if they screw it up, and that shouldn't be what maf is about. Granted if they are dumb enough to not read their predecessors posts they probably deserve it.

[Tajun]

In the light of the kill last night, option c) is a bit more likely, so clearing SafetyDance is a bit premature. But again, not a good lynch today. Even in case b), we should have two scum in {Mutley, AA9, Elyse,

Tajun

}, so it is a good lynch pool regardless.

I think I prefer an AA9 lynch atm, Mutley is capable of contributing in a meaningful fashion and no scummier than AA9. I really can't imagine AA9 in lylo.

[Tajun]

Yeah, definitely. Point is that, while it is somewhat more likely now than yesterday given the nightkill, if that is the case we'll worry about it tomorrow. Today we should assume he is what he says, and thus Safetydance shouldn't be lynched.

Pedit: Case? Evidence? Coherent thoughts? A single vote that isn't OMGUS? Anything AA9? Any reason for us to listen to you at all?

[Tajun]

Because if you are town and you live to lylo, the first time a townie says "maybe AA9 is scum" you will say "OMG YOU ARE SO SCUM WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT" and vote them, giving us a loss. You are a bloody catastrophe of missplays and idiotic votes and if you are town you are an even bigger threat to us than if you are scum. Mutley, for all of his scumminess and trolling at least seems to consider his posts before posting them. You're on a different planet. You couldn't figure out why Rach was conf scum. How the hell are we supposed to keep you alive?

Vote Count
mutleyddmc-4-Elyse, Psyche, antihero, Titus,
Psyche-1-mutleyddmc,
Tajun-1- ArcAngel9,


Not Voting: Scott Brosius, SafetyDance, Tajun

[Tajun]

You want a case? You tried to kill a wagon on conf scum, with the case "scum would have a counter-wagon on them". That alone is more than enough. In a town that wasn't full of insanity you would be dead already. It is only your ridiculously good luck that there are so many exceedingly scummy players around that you weren't an instant lynch.

[Tajun]

I am down for either a Mutley or an AA9 lynch. AA9's response is melodramatic and possibly breaks the site rules by calling a player brain damaged. I cannot see town motivating in his overreaction.

From AA9 I take this as a compliment.

AA9, if you seriously think this is about the number of posts that you and mutley have made, I have somehow given you too much credit.

[Tajun]

No quicklynching please. I've got an important point to make and a soccer game to play tonight, thus no time to do so. Plus we need to hear from our PRs first, at the very least.

[Tajun]

Please claim an action Psyche. Scott as well.

[Tajun]

Alrighty, I am now super-clear (yay!) and can say this without fear of backlash: we really need to lynch a PR claim today. Basically, we still have 5 possible scenarios:

1) All is as it naively appears, Elyse and AA9 are scum.

2) Antihero is lying (ie scum), one of the people who are not clear (Elyse, AA9) or Titus are the partners.

3) Both Psyche and Scott are lying scumbags.

4) One of Psyche or Scott are liars, we have an SK and two remaining scum (AA9 and Elyse), along with the lying PR).

5) Titus was bus-driven night two (and is the scum), one of AA9 and Elyse is the partner.

My analysis of the likelihood of these:

1) I find this

really

hard to believe, given the night kills and the fact that antihero's slot hasn't been RB'ed. Still, it is the simplest solution, and it is a pain when we overcomplicate ourselves into a defeat.

2) Plausible, I see no evidence against it, other than my initial comments about it being an unlikely choice still holding.

3) Plausible, I have an issue with the night 2 kill though, if there were 3 T1 claims and two were scum, killing the remaining T1 claim is a very dangerous move.

4) Unlikely, only one NK per night. Also, if this is the case, our best move is to do the same as 1), so we can effectively lump these together for now.

5) Surprisingly plausible, now that we are in the "something is probably wrong with the simple solution" case. RBD in her previous JK9++

Ok side note then since its theory

Massclaim in this game is best early, but not D1. If all deaths are scum/VT, it works D2 very well. When there are PR deaths it better to delay a bit... but I would never say later than D3. Really was unsure of if it was good or not to massclaim D1 from scum perspective since there were obvious PRs out there.

Shoulda driven myself N1 with a VT like I was debating for a little.

@Bit - Why would you ever kill MS night one? Scum needed to wipe him out more than you did, killing JF would have been far better, even if it gave away existance of a SK.

(Source = http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p4282629) If she decided to do this night two this game, it would look as it currently does, with Titus scum.

So our problem comes down to this: We can only effectively defend ourselves against any two of these possibilities, of our choosing. I don't see any of 1-3 or 5 as being overwhelmingly likely or unlikely, based on night actions and claims. Discuss.

[Tajun]

Oh, there is a sixth possibility, that Antihero and one of the other PRs are the remaining scum and an SK. This is so far beyond unlikely that it has been excluded from my analysis thus far, but should be mentioned for completeness.

[Tajun]

Doesn't work. If you are scum Scott dies along with someone else for the loss. Even if not, if scum still have any doc bypassing abilities it's the same deal.

[Tajun]

There is a certain merit to that plan, I admit. I am still bothered though that this works out quite well for you if you are scum. We get conf scum (you) out of the deal in this case, but we go to lylo with three unclear people. It is a far better result for you than risking us lynching your partner or yourself.

Like I said though, I don't know that I hate it. I'll sleep on it. In the meantime, everyone should chime in on this, I make no claims to have a monopoly on good ideas here.

[Tajun]

Slept on it. I think I like Antihero's plan. Basically, the plan is this: We no lynch, Antihero checks Scott Brosius, Scott hides behind Antihero, and Psyche protects based on his own judgement (I changed that part, I think this makes more sense). Tomorrow,

a) If there was no night kill, we ask AH for his result.
a1) If it is guilty, we lynch Scott Brosius and Psyche for the win.
a2) If it is innocent, we lynch Elyse and AA9 ftw.

b) If there is one kill in {Tajun, AA9, Elyse, Titus, Psyche}, we ask for AH's result. See a1) and a2).

c) If Scott dies, or Scott and {Tajun, AA9, Elyse, Titus, Psyche} die, we lynch Antihero, and go to a MYLO/LYLO situation, where we have to pick the remaining scum.

d) If Antihero and Scott die, we lynch Elyse and AA9 ftw.

e) If Antihero dies and Scott lives, we lynch him and Psyche for the win.

There are problems with this plan. If we are in situation 4) or 5), this likely gives us a loss. If we are in situation 2), we have to pick off the remaining scum. There is another possible problem I won't explain, which is very unlikely to occur. However, this lets us win in cases 1) and 3), and gives us a fighting chance in 2), which I believe are the most likely situations (Titus' comments about the bus driver, in spite of being exceedingly self-serving, are essentially correct: It is a pretty low percentage play). Everyone needs to chime in here, this plan is far from perfect. Also, if people think Antihero is the most likely scum among the PRs, say so now.

[Tajun]

Better off making it a judgement call though, it gives him a chance to block the kill. If the scum know where the doc is we end up in a 6 player game, which is basically the same as a 5 player (We still have a hider, but this isn't super-useful at this point). If the scum don't know where he is heading, he has a chance to leave us in a 7 player game, which protects us against situation 5) as well.

[Tajun]

Hmm. Fair point. Alright, that's up for debate as well.

[Tajun]

Eh, close enough. Basically, the setup correlates the strength of the town and scum. If we assume there is no Serial Killer, then we can't have only one of Psyche and Scott Brosius lying. Either it is both, neither, or there is an SK.

[Tajun]

@Elyse: Also, AA9 could be scum with Antihero, just not with Scott or Psyche (unless there is a SK, blah blah blah).

[Tajun]

Scott, we're waiting on you.

Also,

Could we get a prod on AA9?

[Tajun]

My bad, sorry about that. Looks like Light-kun is looking.

[Tajun]

Meh. That would be ideal, but I'd be satisfied to hear from Scott. The plan doesn't really need approval from AA9's slot.

[Tajun]

Hearing from AA9 would be ideal. Obviously a holding pattern isn't worthwhile, but no one seems to be posting.

Could we get a prod on Scott Brosius?

[Tajun]

Crazy thought Psyche: If you're bored, you could try scumhunting/discussing or improving the plan/trying to figure out who to doc/doing anything useful.

[Tajun]

I've kind of stopped caring. If we just lynch AA9 today, if she flips town we can lynch psyche and Scott, if scum Elyse and Antihero (if necessary). It works out almost as well, and covers pretty much the same basis, and doesn't require Scott or AA9 to be around, which they clearly aren't.

[Tajun]

I am

the

Town Doc. Lynching me is not a good idea. If I survive for too long, I'll mobilize and make sure your reads on me are good enough to avoid MLing.

Oh, thank goodness. We will unconditionally take your word for it. After all, why would you lie about it... unless...

Oh shit! You almost got me.

[Tajun]

Either

someone

fakeclaimed, or we are in the most boring scenario imaginable. By lynching AA9, we test the second scenario.

Anyone against this? Titus? Antihero? Brosius? Bueller?

[Tajun]

You haven't exactly played the most pro-town game in existence. But no, if AA9 flips town, there is nothing I know of indicating that you are necessarily a more likely suspect than Antihero, in terms of theory. In practise though, he has been contributing to the town in a meaningful way, whereas you have not. In that sense, I would be far more inclined to lynch you than him.

[Tajun]

If we go with the plan (no lynch)? I damn well hope so.

If not? If he hides, he is effectively throwing the game away.

[Tajun]

If we go with the plan (no lynch)? I damn well hope so.

If not? If he hides, he is effectively throwing the game away.

If Scott hides after a good lynch, it's ok. He's gamethrowing if he hides after a mislynch possibly. If he should hide after a no lynch.

Still probably not a good idea imo. At this point, we only have one mislynch left, and if he hit scum it would cost us that. I don't think it's worth the possibility of getting conf town. But you are correct, it is far less of a catastrophe in that case.

[Tajun]

There are five possible scumteams at this point.

Me/you
Me/Antihero
You/Antihero
Antihero/Tajun
Psyche/Majiffy

UNVOTE:
VOTE: No Lynch

Incomplete and incorrect. I can't be scum, I'm confirmed by two Prs, one of whom must be telling the truth. The possible scum teams are

Psyche/Majiffy
Elyse/Prophylaxis
Antihero/ ( One of Elyse, Prophylaxis, Titus)
(Less likely) Titus/ (One of Elyse, Prophylaxis)
(Even less likely) SK (Elyse or Prophylaxis) + Maf (The other, and Psyche or majiffy)

I think this is it. Let's see what the replacements think of our options.

[Tajun]

Ahh, you mean Titus. Gotcha.

(Not me )

[Tajun]

No one drop a hammer without my consent, but I don't hate a Psyche wagon. He is definitely scummy as hell.

I'll post tomorrow, too busy now.

[Tajun]

I went through the possible scenarios here. Basically the tl;dr is that the most likely scenarios are Majiffy and Psyche, Elyse and Prophylaxis or Antihero and anyone of Elyse, titus and Prophylaxis (my money would be titus). This is all assuming there is no SK.

Antihero's plan works out pretty well, the reason I wasn't going with it was that Scott disappeared and I didn't feel like waiting. If Majiffy goes for it I'm game for this solution.

[Tajun]

Reasons for these setups are that the only likely scenarios for the PR lettering are

TTRRHPP - Elyse and Prophylaxis are scum
TTTTHPP - Antihero and a VT claim are scum
TTTTHRR - Majiffy and Psyche are scum

If there are three Ts than we need an SK, which most people agree is unlikely.

Also possible is Titus and Elyse or Prophylaxis, with Titus (who was RBD at the time) having been cleared by bus driving himself and a townie. I would rule this out as extremely unlikely, if RBD hadn't suggested doing exactly this in the last JK9++ postgame.

[Tajun]

Sorry, been on vacation and less able to post than I thought. No lynch is fine with me, I think we should still have 12 hours (midnight on the 4th? Not what the mod said, but hopefully that works). I'll hammer it before then in that case. If we do that, Majiffy has to hide behind Antihero and Antihero targets Majiffy.

[Tajun]

Oh, right, no lynch is the default. I'm apparently a moron. Anyway, that's the plan, and people seem game, so whatever.

[Tajun]

Sorry, will post soon. Had a ridiculous week.

[Tajun]

Bus driver acts after hider, so AH is conf scum. My guess is titus as the partner atp. I'll go through all the options of people tonight.

[Tajun]

Eh? Obvscum isn't the same as confscum, which is what antihero most certainly is. We might as well use today to try to find the partner.

Three options are Elyse, Titus and Prophylaxis.

Elyse: Posts like this one

I have a proposition for you, RBD.

I'll massclaim if Pasch is lynched.

and this one (the yes answer especially) make me think quite strongly that she is town. Gut has read town on her all game, and that's the best metric I have IMO. Her lack of understanding of the setup could be faked, but it seems genuine, and I would bet that scum would think about that a fair deal when they get their pms. My only concern is her support of the no lynch, but then I was in on that too, so meh. All told, she is my strongest townread of the remaining three options.

Prophylaxis: More of a mixed bag. I like his analysis, it seems like he is legitimately trying. AA9 pissed me off to no end, but her meta says that this is par for the course from her. That hammer of hers was truly sketchy though. Actually, rereading both of them I am betting town here.

Titus: Only option left, and by far the best one. Antihero "clearing" him is dicey as hell. RBD's screwups in setup analysis were very

very

non RBD-like, and quite explicable by assuming that her buddy was the one who fake-claimed. And she didn't even mention the fact that getting two R's in setup creation was pretty unlikely (R's being the least common letter to pick). DBK was a town read, in all fairness. Titus, since he joined, has been pretty dicey, going along with popular consensus and trying to blend in (voting AA9 and mutley trying a bit too hard to justify it, IMO). This post screams scum to me, now that we have AH outed as scum. Also, his completely unnecessary defenses of me scream "trying to get a powerful townie on my side" to me, which is very rarely a town trait.

I've been wrong before, and will be again, but I am more than happy to bet this game on a Titus/AH scumteam. Let's hear everyone's thoughts on these three before a hammer drops. I'll think some more on it too, might be something I missed.

[Tajun]

In case it wasn't clear, it is the way Titus has been writing as much as anything that makes me think he is scum. He just seems altogether too happy to take the easy route, saying what is expected rather than trying to be creative and thoughtful. Gut is screaming at me about him.

[Tajun]

1 more quick thing: On the off chance that AH flips Bus Driver or Serial Killer, lynch Psyche. I don't see this coming (he should flip goon or JOAT), but if he does be sure not to screw it up.

[Tajun]

I've read the comments here and I will provide more insightful comments later but I'll respond from the gut for now.

@Tajun, Really, you think I've been going with the flow. I feel like the flow has been following me. I do agree with Anti-Hero clearing my slot looks bad, but you have to look at the general intelligence of the players who were doing that at the time that "clear" was posted. Do you really think they'd buddy up so well? Very risky with little reward. If the fake gunsmith withholds ever checking his teammate, they can just go around shooting the clears and the gunsmith can bus his teammate by claiming a guilty. Trying too hard, really Tajun? That IS me. I do everything I do 100%. If you see me halfass something, that is a scum tell, a gambit tell, or a real life is too damn busy tell. I agree with your thoughts on finding the partner, I just think you are totally wrong.

@Prophy, I usually don't do PBPA on my own slots when I replace in. I'll presume you mean something akin to analyzing them if they were not me. I'll suppose that is what you meant if you don't clarify for me by the time I get around to doing that tomorrow.

The way you justified your vote on AA9 seemed disingenuous, like you had decided who you wanted to vote for and then made up the reasons. The "trying too hard" was me meaning that the reasoning you used seemed faked. As for RBD and AH, I don't think that they'd be against some WIFOM clearing, especially if they thought that they might be able to ride it to endgame.

1 more thing I thought of: I am almost certain that the scum would have bussed his buddy AH at this point, since there is no real reason not to. I am essentially willing to clear Prophylaxis based on that alone. I'll read over Elyse again tonight, ditto Titus and his previous incarnations.

[Tajun]

I've read the comments here and I will provide more insightful comments later but I'll respond from the gut for now.

@Tajun, Really, you think I've been going with the flow. I feel like the flow has been following me. I do agree with Anti-Hero clearing my slot looks bad, but you have to look at the general intelligence of the players who were doing that at the time that "clear" was posted. Do you really think they'd buddy up so well? Very risky with little reward. If the fake gunsmith withholds ever checking his teammate, they can just go around shooting the clears and the gunsmith can bus his teammate by claiming a guilty. Trying too hard, really Tajun? That IS me. I do everything I do 100%. If you see me halfass something, that is a scum tell, a gambit tell, or a real life is too damn busy tell. I agree with your thoughts on finding the partner, I just think you are totally wrong.

@Prophy, I usually don't do PBPA on my own slots when I replace in. I'll presume you mean something akin to analyzing them if they were not me. I'll suppose that is what you meant if you don't clarify for me by the time I get around to doing that tomorrow.

The way you justified your vote on AA9 seemed disingenuous, like you had decided who you wanted to vote for and then made up the reasons. The "trying too hard" was me meaning that the reasoning you used seemed faked. As for RBD and AH, I don't think that they'd be against some WIFOM clearing, especially if they thought that they might be able to ride it to endgame.

1 more thing I thought of: I am almost certain that the scum would have bussed his buddy AH at this point, since there is no real reason not to. I am essentially willing to clear Prophylaxis based on that alone. I'll read over Elyse again tonight, ditto Titus and his previous incarnations.

You're clearing Prophy based on the fact he wouldn't vote for scum? That's counterinuitive.

You also believed something I said wasn't genuine. Please quote what you feel wasn't genuine. I can just say everything that comes out of my mouth is genuine, but that doesn't get us anywhere at all.

Yes it is. Only a moron scum wouldn't realize that his buddy was screwed at this point, and the natural reaction to that is to bus for towncred. Thus Prophylaxis is probtown, since he didn't do this.

I am bored with thsi game anywayz
lets get done with this

VOTE: Psyche

Why are you in a hurry to end the game? That doesn't seem like town motivation. Plus, you don't really expand before voting on a claimed doctor. Why?

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Almost caught up, just processing what I have seen.

VOTE: mutley

How is he still alive at this point after the beginning of Day 2? Just...blatantly lying about how he completely meant to hammer Rach when he says otherwise himself right after the hammer (that's the kicker, not the hammer itself). The way he treated pasch at the end of yesterday...the stupid psyche vote...

This guy couldn't be any more confirmed scum if he had a cop guilty on him.

Link the post please?

VOTE: mutley


I really want mutley's explanation for that.

Well if that isn't a scumtastic overreaction. I think you and AA9's slot are the scums.

VOTE: AA9

Here are your early votes. The reasonings were there, but they were weak. It looks like you were voting the two most likely mislynchs, based on very soft evidence. Ten seconds of meta research would have told you AA9 was a spaz, and there were better reasons to vote for both of these clowns. It looks like trying to lead the town off a cliff.

Reread Elyse's day 2, remembered why she is probtown. It is really difficult to fake that level of frustration. We can wait for Pro's Elyse comments, but other than that I am ready to go.

[Tajun]

Still waiting on Prophylaxis...

As for Prophy's slot, if only a moron scum realizes that his buddy isn't screwed, not voting the slot is a null. You have it as more than that which I won't understand. It's not like Prophy is stating that Anti-Hero is town and we shouldn't lynch him.

Huh? Not sure what you mean here, but what I was saying is that when a scum realizes that his buddy is completely screwed, he votes him to get in on the lynch, 9 times out of 10 (numbers made up). Why wouldn't Pro put down a vote there?

[Tajun]

^Don't mind this. Will have to re-evaluate. One question, are you convinced that Prophylaxis is town?

Sorry about the lurking, been super busy and don't have internet at my new place yet. Deadline is soon, we should lynch AH and continue this tomorrow. Remember, if he flips Bus driver or SK, we lynch Psyche and laugh about how we all wasted a day's work looking at the VTs.

VOTE: Antihero

[Tajun]

No. No no no no NOOO. If AH flips SK, Psyche is SCUM. I cannot make this any clearer.

[Tajun]

I am about 99.5 percent sure that it is not the case, which is why we have spent all this time debating which VT is the partner rather than lynch and seeing if it is right. On the extremely off chance we have an utterly bizarre set of circumstances and a weird ass SK, I don't want you all fucking it up in my absence. If AH flips Bus driver or SK though, make no mistake, Psyche is confscum.

[Tajun]

Guys, I'm loving the discussion and all, but deadline is tomorrow afternoon. We

really

need to hammer AH and pick this up tomorrow.

[Tajun]

I'll take a go at this tonight. Still liking Titus as our 3rd, but I'll keep an open mind.

[Tajun]

It comes down to three main points for me:

1) RBD's odd behaviour. She was off her game, missing things that she shouldn't miss and making strange arguments. I outlined this somewhere.

2) You going along with the crowd and taking the easy route. Yesterday especially, you seemed to want to lynch AH immediately until I pointed out that we could use the time more wisely. You went after both Arc and Mutley with weaksauce arguments, seeming not to care which we lynched.

3) PoE: I don't think either Elyse or Prophylaxis is scum.

Also, none of your points against this hold much weight in my books. The scumteam hasn't seemed particularly organised. Your defenses of 2) were meh at best. You went after Elyse and Psyche too, with very shaky reasoning on the second. And I really

really

dislike posts like this one:

Agreed. If AA9 gets to L-1 before our PRs contribute, I will unvote.


@Elyse, you being scum is a most likely PoE.

We've cleared the PRs. So that's Scott, Psyche, and Antihero. Antihero's slot has cleared me previously.

That leaves AA9, Tajun and you as scum.

Tajun seems very town to me.

That leaves you and AA9.

(there was another) where you state so very strongly that the PRs are clear. Could just be an error, but it reads to me as you directing us away from buddy Antihero.

[Tajun]

1) I can't really respond to one and it is vague. I am in a current game where RBD replaced in but I definitely have no grasp on her meta. Are the things RBD missed objective or subjective according to meta. If you could grab that, I'd appreciate it. It's fucking hard to respond to vague assertions and innuendo.

2) I have been going along with the crowd somewhat. However, I haven't been PASSIVELY agreeing. I've been debating and people convinced me that they were right to take their course of action. When I knew AH was scum, I stood up and took the lead.

3) PoE suggests that you've assumed that I'm scum and are reasoning backwards. There's literally nothing in Elyse's ISO that screams town, especially her recent play and strawman arguments.

4) At the time, I believed the PRs were clear. It's a logical and consistent belief I had until corrected by the night actions. If I was "passively going with the flow", then I wouldn't be putting forth rigid beliefs like the one you posted.

5) Look for Elyse Anti-Hero interaction. Look for a strong stance on PRs. You won't find any. Instead, you'll find resistance to massclaim and other town helpful tools.

6) I absolutely disagree on the scum team organization. The scum team would have to have an organized plan to keep the PRs alive that long. What happens after being busted? What happens if Player X does this? Does that? The fact that the scum isn't obvious to you suggests methodical actions. They've nightkilled almost every night, despite the heavy replacing my slot has had. Even now, Elyse's wall on me looks like she was holding posts back for this scenario. What kind of player refuses to do a PBPA in this situation as town? None. A PBPA gets Elyse off script from the strawman arguments laid out by Anti-Hero in their scum qt. (I'm presuming the last part). That's precisely why she won't do it. Yeah, I cannot prove Elyse has a QT but the refusal to answer questions is a pretty big fucking red flag that Elyse is done playing the game because she's convinced you she's town Tajun.

1) It's only vague if you didn't bother to read the part where I said "I outlined this somewhere" and look for that.

RBD's screwups in setup analysis were very very non RBD-like, and quite explicable by assuming that her buddy was the one who fake-claimed. And she didn't even mention the fact that getting two R's in setup creation was pretty unlikely (R's being the least common letter to pick)

Here it is for those not inclined to look it up themselves. RBD is one of the best setup analysers that I have ever met. The fact that she didn't point out how unlikely getting two R's are alone is sufficient for me to be suspicious. The fact that she assumed it was one R (originally, until I fixed that) leads me to believe she didn't bother to read it properly because she knew very well it was her partner who claimed it.

2) You have been going after people who appear vulnerable and lynchable rather than scummy. This is sketchy as hell.

3) Bullshit. I outlined why I thought Elyse and Prophylaxis are town in post 1587 and 1612. They were good arguments, and I stick by them. I'll add "Elyse's offer to trade Paschendale's death for a MC" to that list, that is

not

typical scum behaviour.

4) There was no reason to believe that, and you were pushing it fairly well. Your second point is ridiculous, the only time scum wouldn't be interested in going with the flow is when their buddy is in danger, as it would be if we started going after PRs.

5) Massclaim day 2 was of questionable benefit, and most people are against early MCs. Elyse is very

very

clearly not a setup attacker. This doesn't make her scum.

6) Are you serious? The first chance they took they killed off our most useful role, followed by an absurd night three kill. Their targets have been scatterbrained at best. It's not obvious to me who the scum are from NKs because its all bloody WIFOM. FTR, goodmorning is

definitely

who RBD would NK given the chance. I doubt very much that AH gave anyone a list to follow. I guarantee it didn't say "you should strawman". I agree with her comments about you brushing off her questions with crap answers. And for the record, if I can't convince Prophylaxis that you are scum, Elyse is fucked regardless of which team she is on. He holds the balance of power, all I have is my voice, so if that is her "scum plan" then she is completely clueless.

[Tajun]

VOTE: Titus

I stand by this. Prophylaxis, if you are scum we're finished anyway, so you might as well hammer it. If not, I'm game for the debate, but you're going to have to give me an awfully good reason to switch off.

[Tajun]

1) Post 1587. I quoted from it. The keys used to find it are ctrl-f.

2) You went after everyone when it looked like they were going down. Elyse attacked Pasch consistently and evenly for a day and a half, even when no one was listening, you switch every time the wind starts blowing.

3) Elyse was against

day 2

massclaim. That is beyond clear. She was also for Pasch's lynch, and was willing to compromise one to get the other. And I just remembered Elyse's soft vanilla claim, which is yet another reason she is obv town. Bargaining is a very town trait.

4) The PR's were never clear, not even bloody close. The NKs made no sense in that framework, and there were three reasonable scenarios in play. If you thought they were clear, I sure hope you don't depend too heavily on your setup spec skills.

5) Fuck you. This town would be dead in the goddamn water if I hadn't been here to fix the setup spec day 2 and 3. The massclaim day 2 was of questionable benefit, although I don't regret my participation in it. I don't think it hurt us, but it didn't help a lot either. Would have been better with more PRs. My setup spec was good this game, and RBD never answered my question as to what the net benefit of MC would be with 3 PR tokens (which, yes, I predicted in advance). On that note, I'm the one who prevented AH's plan for a lynch plus a hide from going through, saving the town from a loss. Eat setup spec, smartass.

6) Elyse has about 30 games under her belt. I think she is capable of forming her own plan. Her meta matches her town just fine. In 1681 your answers were pretty soft, "No, you are scum" doesn't count. Calling things assumptions doesn't make them wrong. AH's original gambit would have screwed us, his second was clearly a sac, but what choice did he have at that point? If there is anyone staying on script it is you, your arguments are sounding more and more like dodges as the day goes on.

[Tajun]

No. That was a slip.

I direct my posts to particular players all the time. Go on. Flail more. You slipped.

You're calling that a slip? I'm having a hard time believing Prophylaxis hasn't hammered you yet, if that is the best you can do.

[Tajun]

Town doesn't need self-preservation and therefore no need to bargain.

This is one of my mafia pet peeves. Town

does

need self preservation, every time a townie gets lynched, myself included, it hurts the town. They just need to kill scum more. Town needs to be willing to die, if it helps their cause, but they shouldn't be inviting it. And bargaining is one of the true blue town traits, although it is always possible Elyse knows that as well and was faking it. Calling it a scum survival mechanism is just so wrong it hurts.

[Tajun]

Tajun, I'll disagree with this. Bargaining is circumstance relevant. When you're getting everything you want, why bargain? Elyse was getting a Paschendale lynch, why the hell did she feel the need to bargain at all?

So... You are arguing that she didn't want an MC, due to its immense benefits to town and her being scum, and that she was getting a Pasch lynch regardless, but she decided to bargain her way down from getting everything she wanted to just some of it? What is her motive?

[Tajun]

Look harder.

[Tajun]

It makes me a bit uncomfortable as well, but I am also reminded that a big part of the reason I wanted to lynch Apozzle was his continued pushing on this point:

@orozorro, do not discriminate against me

@Tajun, "pretty blatantly bad"? A fair few people would argue that wrt getting out of RVS. Not something I agree with, obviously, but something that people do accept. A pretty weak reason to jump on that wagon.

@Chenoan, you went from "three is too many votes" to "I know three is not too many but I actually think you are town"? That was a pretty big leap there. Why not just say that you think DBK is town to start with?

which in retrospect was based on defending a comment originally from DBK. I'd buy that he was bussing hard because he was worried his teammate would take him into the ground with him otherwise. Also, when you start a bus and it begins to pick up steam, you do

not

want to jump off, otherwise the two of you get linked in everyones eyes. Your best guess at that point is to keep it up and hope someone else screws up to the level of being a better lynch. TBH, I was more uncomfortable about Rubicon putting up both his buddies as scum. Do you have a meta link for that that is worth looking at?

[Tajun]

Ugh, off site meta... Okay, decided I don't care. I'd recommend reading Apozzle's interactions with Elyse and DBK. I don't get too much from them, but I'd be a bit surprised if obviously new-ish scum Apozzle put one of his buddies (Elyse) down as his only town read. Never know though, and Elyse's entrance to that wagon was probably sketchier than DBK's.

I dunno. I'm about 85% sure on this, so if you are completely convinced Elyse is the scum then let me know. Otherwise, I see some evidence both ways, but the balance of it (and my gut) are telling me to stay where I am.

[Tajun]

I got the feeling he was trying to buddy Elyse, and switched to attacking her when she didn't start to buddy back. Definitely not scum scum interactions in that interpretation. Could always be that he didn't know how to treat a buddy though. DBK views are wishy washy, not saying much to him, which reads better as buddy buddy to me. Then again, everything I am seeing is probably through the eyes of conf bias, so make your own decisions.

It was more these comments from DBK that interest me:

258: Noting because this could be associative if Apozzle flips scum; I don’t see why Jason needs to even tone it down, and Jacob takes Apozzle’s side?

261 through 263 is even worse. Jacob may have the meta to say he doesn’t read back into games he’s replaced, but Blue Yoshi’s been here since the start and all he mentions at this point is game theory.

(and a line in 262…I feel like it’s obvious what I’m talking about so I’ll just shut up now.)

as scum like to tie their buddies to townies. This, and the fact that Apozzle was defending DBK while disagreeing with him early on (post 61). I think on balance these interactions favour a DBK scumbuddy over Elyse.

[Tajun]

Whew. As much as I tried to show confidence, I had an awful feeling that I might be going wrong. Good game all, thanks for sticking with it.

On strategy for scum, probably best to use ninja night 1 then strongman once you know the roles. Wouldn't have worked well this time, but I'd bet on that in the long run. But that's just IMO.

Titus put up a good fight, it was fun.