Open 496: Ryuk is the protagonist
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Ugh, finished read/skimming the thread.
This game has been a slugfest, and I totally understand why people are replacing out left and right. The scum are probably waiting until the long Days sap the town's energy of actually playing, then win.
I'm going to try to do a more comprehensive reread later, but my gut is telling me Psyche is scum. A claimed doc that's lurking, dubious selection targets, not dead yet, and the replacement request sends up a ton of red flags for me.
I found a scumtell by Elyse and her posts generally aren't sending much town points for me. I'll explain when I have time.
Also, can someone give me the CliffNotes version of how the game is solved? I skimmed that stuff when I was reading through it because I hate setup manuevering and prefer to focus on behavior.
I'll put up a full post when I'm actually on a laptop, and then I'll do some vote analysis.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Spoiler: Vote Counts, alignments filled in
God, this took forever.
The important vote counts:
Day 1 Lynch:
RachMarie-7-Does Bo Know,Paschendale, Elyse, Rubicon,Chenoan,JasonWazza,mutleyddmc,
Tajun-1-RachMarie,
mutleyddmc-1-ArcAngel9,
Votes AFTER mutley's vote forRachMariedoes not count.
Not voting:
JacobSavage, Autti, Psyche, Tajun,
Day 2 Lynch:
Paschendale(6): Elyse,ArcAngel9,mutleyddmc, Psyche, Tajun, Rainbowdash
Rainbowdash (2): Bacde, Rubicon
Elyse (1):Paschendale
Bacde (1):goodmorning
No Vote (1):SafetyDance
Day 3 Lynch
mutleyddmc-5-Elyse, Psyche, antihero, Titus,ArcAngel9
Psyche-1-mutleyddmc,
Not Voting: Scott Brosius,SafetyDance, Tajun
Will look at and analyze this beast when I have time.
Until then, going with probably the correct vote.
Vote Count:
NoLynch-2-AntiHero, Elyse,
Elyse-1-Titus,
Not Voting: Prophylaxis, majiffy, Psyche, TajunLast edited by Light-kun on Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Ehh, when docs are usually outed and don't die, I'm inclined to call them scum.
I got burned by this in another game, where someone (Rubicon, if this mafiascum Rubicon = the Rubicon I know) falseclaimed doc as scum and rode to victory.
The mod said this, after the game:
[quote=Eidolonic]Town's ultimately downfall was completely disregarding the doctor claim being scum. The combination of claiming at the last possible second, lurking hard while being 'townfirmed', the dubious selection targets, and the 'roleblocked' claim on the last day should have sent up a ton of red flags.[/quote]
I'll try to build a case soon that proves Psyche as scum or exonerates me.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Eidolonic wrote:Town's ultimately downfall was completely disregarding the doctor claim being scum. The combination of claiming at the last possible second, lurking hard while being 'townfirmed', the dubious selection targets, and the 'roleblocked' claim on the last day should have sent up a ton of red flags.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Well, we have one mislynch left.
Part of me is tempted to lynch Psyche, because the doc claim and not being shot is really sketchy.
Another part of me wants to follow the Antihero plan, because I'm not very enthused in this game and I want a path that leaves us to victory the easiest, quickest, and may I daresay laziest way.
Unfortunately, I'm not very acclimated in the game, so I'll see if I can produce some content soon.
It's tough when all of the wagons in this game are very small.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Alright, I have some time now to really sink my teeth into this game.
Prophylaxis- Vanilla Town
Tajun- Vanilla Town
Antihero - Gunsmith (clears Safety, Tajun, and Titus)
Elyse - Vanilla Town
Psyche - Doctor (can't' find night actions)
Majiffy - Hider (can't find night actions)
Titus - Vanilla Town
Let's try this.
orozorro/Rubicon/Antihero Summary:
orozorro votes the Rach slot in RVS. Rubicon then posts a town/scum list with accurate town flips. Pressures Rach slot. He then explains his reasoning, setting his chips on a Apozzle/DBK/Paschendale scumteam. Starts to tunnel on Rach, and bumps chenoan to probablyTown. Tries to convince Psyche and pressures AA9. Shows why mutley is town, then second guesses himself. Votes bacde based on not following up reactions. Asks questions to AA9 and mutley, shows that he cares about them by re-quoting them. Votes to apply more pressure to his scumspects. Dissects a couple of posts, and questions Elyse for not mentioning JacobWazza. Constantly focuses on scum!RBD, votes no to massclaim. Pressures Psyche to give opinions on things.
Antihero votes mutley on Day 3, then entertains the "breakable plan".
orozorro/Rubicon/Antihero Analysis:
Scum can vote their buddies to subconsciously distance. Rubicon is harder to read, as he's very curt, and he doesn't have a lot of windows into his thought processes. I like the mutley clear and that twinge of paranoia - shows some of his thought processes. Also like the bacde vote - he's scumhunting pretty clearly here. Also like the mutley re-questioning. So far, he's pretty clean here. Modgaming also indicates that we should have an investigative role.
Overall, I like Rubicon's play and he was a pretty strong town read during Day 2 - he actively scumhunted. There's this paranoia thing where he wouldn't run this many checks this late (I would have expected scum to nightkill him already) but modgaming suggests him being our only invest role. Would like to see him die so those checks become legit and we have two people cleared, but I'm inclined to believe him at this point. I'm having trouble seeing this guy as scum.
Prophylaxis- Vanilla Town
Tajun- Vanilla Town
Antihero- Gunsmith (clears Safety, Tajun, and Titus)
Elyse - Vanilla Town
Psyche - Doctor (can't find night actions)
Majiffy - Hider (can't find night actions)
Titus - Vanilla Town
As I have limited time right now (these things take a while to do) let me check up on Psyche to see how he's doing.
Blue Yoshi/Psyche Summary:
RVSes Elyse. Makes a jovial post "I really hope you're joking about this!" then says "MAFIA IS SERIOUS BUSINESS." Posts fluff until we get to his first real content post. Clears KBW. Setup speculation, talks about massclaim.
Says "Rach is typical Rach" without opinion. More fluff. Clears mutley as "Where is the scum intent?" Votes no massclaim. Says "Elyse is town!" with no reasoning given. Even more fluff. Claims doc. Hops on the Pasch wagon with zero reasoning, as always. Claims random protect and no protect. Votes mutley even after doccing him and clearing him. Targeted the hider. More fluff, then mudslings us as being "too lazy to think critically". Fluff again.
Blue Yoshi/Psyche Analysis:
Dislike his contradiction in joking and seriousness. Not liking BY right now - do an ISO on him, and you'll see he's all fluff and active lurking.
Psyche opens with a fencesit on the confirmed scum and layers upon layers of fluff. He backpedals on mutley - see these posts:
In post 519, Psyche wrote:Before anyone gets crazy or anything, one simple question to ask yourself:
"What was the scum intent?"
I, for one, would never ever ever in a million years deliberately hammer someone pre-claim in a game like this (with so many PRs), especially as scum on D1 filled with so many investigative roles. So forgive me if I'm not rabid to lynch mutley for pulling a stupid.Partnered with the jailkeeper flipping makes me think Psyche is basically confirmed scum. Both BY and Psyche have posted zero analysis and have done zero scumhunting. I'm surprised why he's still alive.
Prophylaxis- Vanilla Town
Tajun- Vanilla Town
Antihero- Gunsmith (clears Safety, Tajun, and Titus)
Elyse - Vanilla Town
Majiffy - Hider (can't find night actions)
Titus - Vanilla Town
Psyche- Doctor (can't find night actions)
Will continue filling this out tonight and tomorrow, but I'm pretty deadset on Psyche being scum.
@Titus/Antihero: Can you guys (and gals) do the same thing what I'm doing for Elyse and Majiffy? Would appreciate coming home with some analysis to look over and to make my rereading/summarizing take some less work.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Oh lol, forgot that Majiffy and Psyche are bound together like a White Flag scumteam.
I'll reread Majiffy's slot just to make sure, but I encourage everyone to reread my analysis of Psyche. He's done nothing all game, with his only saving grace is his doc claim (which is nullified by jailkeeper and the fact that he hasn't died yet)
Like, think of it this way. Why is Psyche still alive? He's been coasting and active lurking all game. Why is he still here? Why aren't we lynching an active lurker? It sure isn't because he looks town.
If you're still unconvinced, read this game (https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showt ... hp?t=23824). It's only 466 posts - won't kill you. The basic summary is that on Day 2, Rubicon (mafiascum Rubicon and this Rubicon - any relation?) claims doc then lurks to endgame. He even claims that he protected someone who died that night. He was scum.
Rubicon's play in that game and Psyche's play in this game mirror each other. If you guys want to go with the no lynch plan, that's fine, but I'm betting my chips on the two PR claims being scum.
Your move, Kasparov.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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@Mod: 48 hour deadline extension and prods on Elyse, Antihero, and Tajun please?
@Titus: Well, hider has some risk associated with hiding. Remember if the scum choose the correct person to kill, the hider dies with them too.
Can you take a look at the Majiffy's slot behavior? I'll try to get around to it tonight.
I feel like scum are trying to sow WIFOM with their nightkill choices, but then again, I don't think the scum are very good either. Behavior is much stronger than nightkill analysis either way.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Haven't had time to do it.
I guess I'll pore over the thread soonish, probably tomorrow, to see if I can find Antihero's scumbuddy.
I'm just so uninvested in the game, though. My gut says it's probably Elyse/Antihero, but I'll need to recheck and put my own hands in the thread before that happens.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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I've been developing this tactic. Let's see if it works.
@Titus: Can you do a PBPA on your predecessors, DBK and Rainbowdash, please?
Thanks for the analysis, Tajun. I'll go take a look at Elyse again (I think I stated this already, but there was something that pinged me about Elyse - let me go dig it up).
I'll try to get customary walls up tomorrow or later tonight if I find the motivation.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Also, this is the scumphrase by Elyse:
tl;dr Elyse and Titus fight for my amusement pleaseIn post 163, Elyse wrote:What is your current read on me?-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Alright, sunk about an hour into this game and came back with a full analysis of Titus's slot.
I'll wait until Titus PBPA's herself, then will post. Don't want her to simply barn mine.
@Psyche: You've gotten away with being noncontributory and posting fluff the whole game. I swear, actually contribute or replace out.
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Vote Count
Antihero-1-Elyse,
Not Voting:
Antihero, Prophylaxis, Tajun, Titus, Psyche,Last edited by Light-kun on Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Actually contribute then.In post 1601, Psyche wrote:Sorry, but there is no way I am inflicting this long, terrible thread on some other living soul.
We're at a point where the final three scum are Titus, me, or Elyse. Who do you think is scum out of those three?
You're confirmed town. C'mon, pull a AniX here.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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I'll look through your pbpa later. Thanks.
Here's your reward:
Let's revise the list again. I changed it to:
Prophylaxis- Vanilla Town
Psyche - Doctor
Tajun- Vanilla Town
Elyse - Vanilla Town
Titus - Vanilla Town
Antihero - Gunsmith (clears Safety, Tajun, and Titus)
Titus
Summary of Does Bo Know:
Self-conscious first and third post, and keeps trolling for the remainder of RVS. Loaded question on Chenoan. Votes Chenoan for.. being eager to get out of RVS. Tunnels on Chenoan. After getting the train on Chenoan loaded up, he moves to KBW. Completely reverses on Chenoan read, which is fine from a mafiascum meta standpoint (more VCA, less behavioral). Makes a bunch of easy posts, then hops back to Chenoan, reversing read yet again.
Uses conclusions without a lot of reasoning with "Autti is town, Elyse is town". DBK asks for reads on my replacee. Keeps applying pressure to Chenoan. Completely abandons Chenoan after his catchup post and votes Rach. Doesn't really push the wagon, though, just kinda leaves his vote on there. Kinda prods Rach for claim and reads, but doesn't really go on the rails with her. Scumhunts the rest of the way.
Analysis of Does Bo Know:
I don't like his first few posts - very self conscious + loaded question. He's also too silly. I don't like the "We'll see where my vote takes us" on post 45 - needless self-justification (Hi Sarevok @Titus). IIoA on #45. Not liking the Chenoan tunneling - I don't see why he's scummy and his reasons for voting are bad. "Honestly" in #57. More IIoA. Prematurely clearing people.
I like his later posts though, and the biggest point in his favor is being first for a Rach lynch. I'll need to go back and check, but he started the Rach lynch, so major town points to him for that.
At this point, he's done a lot of townie things and some other scummy things. I'm slightly leaning towards town now due to VCA, but let's see what's up with RBD.
orozorro/Rubicon/Antihero interactions:
None with orozorro, which is understandable because he made one post and replaced out. Buddies with Rubicon a bit, but does not interact with him. Scummy.
Summary of Rainbowdash:
Makes a couple posts about her "breaking the setup". Says that setup speculation is "AMAZINGLY PRO TOWN". Pushes for a massclaim. Wants a vig claim. More massclaim. Lists Elyse + Rubicon as scumspects, and lists (correct) town reads (KBW, Tajun, JS and Chen are all town). Focuses on Elyse. Lots of responding to questions. Abandons ship on Elyse and focuses on Rubicon, then switches back to Elyse again. Keeps pushing for massclaim.. lots and lots of times. When massclaim finishes she analyzes it but it really doesn't yield many benefits. Does not reread and votes Elyse again on gut. Replaces out.
Analysis of Rainbowdash:
The thing with RBD is that how she enters the game. Too much "breaking the setup" stuff, which I'm not a fan of. The town reads are all accurate, which is pretty scummy because scum know who's town.
I think the major thing to find out here are the interactions w/Rubicon. Are they genuine enough to not be bussing? That's what I need opinions on for this slot. I really can't read her because a short summary of all she did was "MASSCLAIM, DIE RUBICON AND ELYSE, REPLACE OUT".
orozorro/Rubicon/Antihero interactions:
She switches from hardlining on Elyse to focusing on Rubicon. She then abandons Rubicon, which I find mildly scummy. Again, see analysis.
Summary of Titus:
Votes me, then switches to mutley. Has two townies on her radar in the beginning. Asks questions but doesn't care for them. Keeps saying my replacee is scummy. PoEs out the "scumteam" of Elyse and I. Analyzes scumteam possibilities. Against nolynch plan. Buddies me by voting for Psyche. No reasoning from switching from me as the prime scumspect (remember when she was betting her clips on AA9/mutley scumteam?) and instead votes for Elyse.
Analysis of Titus:
She has a curt posting style for this game, and that I find difficult to read. I'm not really sure - she's been doing a whole lot more possible scumteam speculation instead of actual scumhunting. I don't actually see her scumhunting, for the most part.
orozorro/Rubicon/Antihero interactions:
Provides no real opinion on Antihero, just responds to him and makes hypothetical opinions.
My Conclusion
I hate to admit this but I'm fairly ehh on this slot. Call it fencesitting if you will, but I really cannot derive a conclusion from either of the three replacements. As I said in the Rainbowdash analysis, the best thing we can get from this slot is to evaluate if RBD's attacks towards Rubicon are genuine enough. Personally, I don't think they are.
I'll need to look at VCA before I wrap this up.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Catching up + rereading equaled an Elyse analysis, so yeah.In post 1639, Titus wrote:@Mod: Can we have the nine hours lost due to the site being down added to the deadline?
Prophy, will you have that analysis you promised tomorrow as well?-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Like I just keep coming back to this vote count.
RachMarie-7-Does Bo Know,Paschendale, Elyse, Rubicon,Chenoan,JasonWazza,mutleyddmc,
Tajun-1-RachMarie,
mutleyddmc-1-ArcAngel9,
I have a very hard time believing someone would be first on the vote count of a seven-player wagon and be scum.
I also keep coming back to this.
In post 163, Elyse wrote:What is your current read on me?-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Hey look a strawman.In post 1682, Elyse wrote:Ok that's cool you can just nitpick my use of the word "fact" rather than actually respond to my points. BYE.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Prophylaxis Goon
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This game is like "I'll dedicate some time to it tomorrow, reread the game n' such" and then I don't do it.
When I look at this game, my brain says to just lynch Titus and spare ourselves of the void of this game which started in April and continued all the way to the summer.
But my gut says put time and effort into trying to swing the hammer onto Elyse.
So... yeah. I'll say to myself that I'll try to reread this tomorrow, but... no guarantees.-
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Prophylaxis Goon
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Tajun, I've reread and I think I'm ready to lynch Titus.
I'm buying the fact that Rubicon did the same thing and ran the megabus on his buddies, and I've looked at meta. Also, the language slip by Titus just makes her look awful.
I still have some reservations about this lynch, though. Can you assuage my fears by looking at these posts:
In post 329, Does Bo Know wrote:Oooweeee, that's a long post. But hey, at least there aren't any HTML errors. (For some reason I have a knack for that.)
Current reads (in no particular order):
Town
JasonWazza
Elyse
Keybladewielder
Rubicon
(not enough info to read)Null
Autti
ArcAngel9
(enough info to read, but not enough to place in a town or scum column)Neutral
Tajun
Blue Yoshi*
Scum
RachMarie (previously Apozzle)
JacobSavage
Chenoan
Paschendale**
*I'd rather not explain Blue Yoshi's situation.
**If there's a serial killer in this setup, he's the one. Otherwise, least-likely scum in the group tied with Jacob, so not worth lynching today.
VOTE: RachMarie for obvscum.In post 377, Does Bo Know wrote:Rach is still L-2 though.
Can we get another vote on Rach, please? <3In post 340, Does Bo Know wrote:Where's Rach wagon-wise?
Elyse: any other reasons for Rach-scum? I don't remember you taking much of a stance regarding Apozzle. Or maybe you did and I don't remember.
I still have a hard time believing that DBK ran the mega-bus on Apozzle/Rach D1.In post 341, Does Bo Know wrote:Yeah, just ISO'd, you actually claim Apozzle was a scum read without explaining anything. Only interaction with Apozzle is telling him to replace out if he couldn't take it and that you don't post walls of text like he does.
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