Open 525: C9++ (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

hello.

i'll probably catch up on this game after sleep.

i've only read this page. ykv and wake are town. regfan could be scum.

unvote

[zMuffinMan]

indeed.

did your reads change between #537 and that post?

[zMuffinMan]

i see. and you're not curious as to why i said you could be scum off your first two posts?

[zMuffinMan]

will be slowly catching up over the next few hours, after i get some food.

in the mean time, feel free to try to convince me who you think is scum and why.

@mod, i don't think i'll need an extension.

[zMuffinMan]

regfan

what were your reads as of p15?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm at p18 now

i have fireflies, aptil, beastcharizard, venrob, hp, ykv, yessiree, wake as town
and a very weak townread on shamrock

so i'm kind of poeing my scum reads atm

although i do think zebe and your predecessor are scum outside of poe from town reads

[zMuffinMan]

i can give you the basic version atm.

i had a town read on beast from his very first post. and then his next posts solidified this.

aptil i'll have to pull up the specific quotes but it was somewhere around p10 that i initially formed a townread on her

and yessiree is another one i had a town read on from the first post (or whichever post he said he was going to reign over town in) and then the posts where he was catching up and commenting on his wake read and his other reads in relation to wake looked town.

i'm not actually taking notes so just doing this off the top of my head. i might iso people after i'm done and pull up the quotes i'm talking about specifically

the zebe read is for the initial reads post and subsequent lack of anything at all that looks town

[zMuffinMan]

but if you could pull up specifics and quotes on your Aptil town read it'd be help me a lot when going through her again.

actually i'll do this and the others when i wake up tomorrow. i can barely keep my eyes open atm.

in the mean time, though.

Vote: Zebe

this is a good vote.

more after sleep.

[zMuffinMan]

@regfan,

Spoiler:

re:Aptil,

I think you are trying real hard to be town rather than just be town.

This sort of reasoning is something I consider a minor town tell from newer players. I can maybe possibly see aptil-scum making a similar statement, but in general this is far more likely to come from aptil-town. He's a newbie player being paranoid of someone trying to look town when their gut feeling says the person isn't actually town. But this isn't the part of aptil's iso that i thought looked town.

So i am your target for night 1.
VOTE: YellowKingValley

This post really rang genuine. It's dumb, but it still felt genuine to me. again, I attribute this to Aptil's newbieness, and I don't see this is as Aptil-scum pretending.

There's also the subsequent posts 241 and 244 which also felt genuine in regards to YKV. I didn't sense scum motivation in this push, I sensed genuine town paranoia in regards to YKV. The continued questioning of ykv in 315, 317 and 319, even after the vote on wake, are at least consistent with the earlier suspicion of YKV (not exactly a town tell, but I find generally newer scum players forget who they were pretending to be suspicious of and interact with them in ways that betray this).

i have to admit this very true.I am trying to improve .

Another quote from Aptil that rang genuine.

I also liked his response to you (570) - mostly the second paragraph here gave me town vibes.

I can see some parts of Aptil's iso that can maybe be construed as scummy, but I don't think they are. For example, the wake vote for "PL" reasons... Yeah you can call this opportunistic bandwagoning but I don't see it that way, mostly because I don't see Aptil-scum saying, "Yeah I'm literally doing this because I don't have other strong scum reads and other people are calling him scum." It's possible, but I find it more likely that Aptil-scum would at least make up reasons to find Wake scummy, or say that he agrees with the reasons put forth by others, etc.

tl;dr version of this is I'm gut reading Aptil as town because i'm reading his posts as genuine and I don't find the reasons for thinking he's scum convincing.

---

re: Beastcharizard,

This is another read which basically comes down to his language choice, the tone of his posts, how genuine I think they are, and the fact that they don't feel planned.

VOTE: Kazekirimaru

Saying "Serious vote" pisses me off more than a naked vote does.

I initially gut read Beastcharizard as town for this post. Mostly because of the tone here. It's not something that I'm ruling out Beast-scum saying, but it came across as town.

The reasoning in 86 looked extremely genuine to me. The first paragraph set off all sorts of town alarms, and the second paragraph reinforced this. I didn't sense any scum motivation in this post. The followup to this post (138) didn't really change my mind about this, and you thinking this is odd (or scummy?) makes no sense to me. His reasoning may be faulty, but I don't think this was scummy in any way (I assume you think this is buddying or something? or distancing from a mislynch? *shrug* I read it as beast genuinely thinking the wagon was based on nothing and thinking it was therefore scum-driven... The last paragraph of 147 reinforces my thoughts on this).

The first line of 154 looked town. This has to do with me thinking that it didn't look planned and felt genuine (especially since he's completely wrong)

Reconsidering his stance on the wake wagon in 175 also felt genuine.

At this point I can continue quoting his posts and telling you how I felt all of them looked genuine, but I'd just be repeating myself here. I'm more interested in why you don't think these posts look genuine.

I understand you have an issue with him not outing town reads, but I find it hard to believe that you've never seen this before. It's indicative of a faulty mindset and is something that needs to be corrected, but it's not alignment-indicative. Outside of that, I'm really meh on your reasons for thinking he's scum.

---

re: Yessiree,

136 was where I initially formed a gut read on yessiree, mostly because the tone and joking nature of the last line felt town.

Then the analysis he gave in his next few posts (383, 384, 386 and 388) were pretty much in line with everything I remember thinking about the game at the time. The things he was picking up on were basically the same as the things I was picking up on, I sensed that he was genuinely trying to figure out the game over him looking for reasons to push his own agenda, and I didn't really sense any scum motivation in these posts. I don't see the issue you have with him calling out scum vs town in Jane vs Kaze because he quite clearly explained why he thought this, and it wasn't simply an instance of him saying, "Yep one side is definitely scum and the other is town!" It was scum vs town because he was reading Kaze as town and Jane as scum, and there was nothing more to it than this. I feel you're pushing really hard on this for the language he used when the intent of his posts here was clear.

All further analysis from him has been pretty much in line with my own thinking with a few minor differences here and there. I've seen nothing that i think points to him being scum and a lot of stuff that i think points to him being town.

---

So yeah, these are my basic reasons for the town reads on all three of these players. Aptil is probably the weakest of these, and Yessiree is probably the strongest.

As for why I think Zebe is scum,

I really didn't like his 167 at all. The excuse he gave at the beginning of the post felt weird. The reads he gave here felt really off and weak. I didn't really feel any sort of real analysis coming from him here, and this has been a trend that's continued in his later posts. This post is where I initially formed a scum read on him.

And his later posts did nothing to change this. 373, for example, showed no further analysis (simply calling three people scum and claiming to have some town reads which he wasn't going to talk about unless asked).

The unvote in 424 just made no sense to me at all from a town perspective. I quite literally cannot understand the reasoning here. Supposedly he's been scum reading Wake the entire game and... I don't even know what to say about this. He doesn't even say that he's changed his mind about Wake, just that his vote is outdated. There's also the weird line that Regfan and HP pointed out and the flippant nature of his response to YKV's accusation about scum buddies felt off.

His response to Regfan in 589 where he picked a single sentence and chose to respond to that, ignoring the rest of Regfan's reasons felt scum motivated. As though he somehow discredited the entire case because he gave a half-baked explanation for that one thing.

More recently, I'm not liking the reasoning in 634 for his scum reads, and overall it feels like he's spent the entire game coasting and providing very little in the way of analysis. He's posting to avoid suspicion (as is obvious by him claiming he's still here and he exists at the start of every one of his earlier posts) and I don't sense town intent in his posts.

[zMuffinMan]

re: aptil,

i didn't see omgus in the ykv stuff. the initial post in regard to ykv about being his n1 target felt genuine - like aptil-newb thinks he's caught scum and then this is followed up by the questioning of ykv in his later posts. it's not so much the suspicion of ykv itself that reads town, but the initial reason for it. the point about him continuing on with it and being consistent is minor additional evidence that i think points towards town rather than scum.

i did see him latching on to someone else calling him newbtown. but i didn't see this as scummy. it looked genuine. i'm not a fan of people doing that, but in this particular case i thought it looked town.

as for that other game, outside of the activity (which doesn't really tell me much), i don't see much of a difference between that game and this game. i'm also not a huge fan of meta to begin with (i've seen it used incorrectly far more times than i've seen it used correctly), especially when it's judging against one completed town game. you can find what you want to find if you look hard enough for something to support your case.

---

re: beastcharizard,

i dunno, i can't really say much more than, "i'm reading the post differently to you."

i don't see the scum intent that you apparently see in his posts. i understand that you didn't agree with his kaze read, but i didn't feel his reasons looked fabricated at all. the wake stuff makes sense to him (or, at least it's internally consistent with the reasoning he's given so far, and i'm inclined to believe he thinks it's good reasoning, even if it isn't actually good reasoning).

i also don't believe you actually thought scum could figure out which power roles town has based on what the scum roles are. especially when they cannot know whether or not a serial killer exists. even in the old c9++ setup, this wasn't possible.

[zMuffinMan]

even if aptil's play here were different, it wouldn't indicate that aptil is scum in this game...

[zMuffinMan]

aptil, what are your current reads?

shamrock scum? what else?

[zMuffinMan]

Will give detailed reads later if you want.

yes, please.

particularly the zebe read.

[zMuffinMan]

i'm going to need a little more detail than that.

what similarities are there between this game and his 'town play'? describe his town play. how does it differ from his scum play? how is this not his scum play?

[zMuffinMan]

what "same patterns"?

also link the game you're talking about so i can look at it myself (will probably save some time)

[zMuffinMan]

i don't see whatever patterns you're claiming you see.

for example, compare [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5239768]this post[/post] to any of the posts in this game in which he's given reads. he takes clear stances on people in that game (outright calling them town) and cites examples for these reads, which someone can then look at, see whether they agree with him, etc etc. in this game, his reads are wishy-washy, the reasoning is weak (or non-existent) and there is no real sense of conviction in any of them. the reads he gave him 167 are the first example of what i mean here, but you can also see the same thing in 634.

it would help if you could tell me what patterns you think you're seeing that point to him being town here.

[zMuffinMan]

this post
^ fixed url tag

[zMuffinMan]

the conviction is a side point. i don't care about the conviction. it's more the explanations and the actual reads themselves being wishy-washy. i don't see him doing the same thing.

again, can you describe what you mean by "doing the same" or "same patterns" because just saying that doesn't really help. which patterns or things do you think he's doing the same, and why can this not come from him as scum?

have you seen him play scum, out of interest?

[zMuffinMan]

. . . . .

in 653 i talked a bit about why i think zebe is scum. you need to tell me what you disagree with in order for any conversation about this to begin.

[zMuffinMan]

Interesting question I'd like to echo.

that's a really shit question to ask, actually. there's only one reasonable answer for anyone with any role PM to give.

reasoning behind some scumreads are weak, the read feels manufactured

which reads and

why

?

also you have too many alts

[zMuffinMan]

It's not.

It is.

Any good player knows how to spin a player's ISO even if they are scum. And any good player will refuse to do it. If you asked the same of me, I would flat-out refuse because it's a stupid exercise that serves no purpose, and even if I were scum, I'm fairly sure I could fake a read on my predecessor (and I have, in the past). I've faked town reads on my predecessor when he looked legitimately scummy because I knew I was town because what fucking purpose would it serve to say my predecessor was legit scummy when I know they were town?

tl;dr It is a shitty question.

The odds for 3 would be somewhere along the lines of 1/1000

2.2% chance of DDD
12.4% of DD

---

@HP,

What is your read on Zebe?

---

@Zebe,

When did you start thinking Wake was town and why?
Why are you null on HP? How have you got no read on him at all based on his posts?

Also expand on your other reads, please.

[zMuffinMan]

is it too much to ask "why?"

i'm not currently reading you as town and am thinking you could be scum by poe. i have no strong reason for this though. i didn't like your predecessor's play and haven't seen anything i think looks particularly tonw from you. only reason you might be town is if regfan is scum, which also means i've gone wrong with one of my town reads.

[zMuffinMan]

That's the activity level expected of Zebe. Additional pressure fail to increase his contribution, meaning that's his max.

Was your vote purely for pressure? What's your actual read on Zebe?

[zMuffinMan]

D1 reads are never too accurate.

Even if this were actually true, what's your point?

Are you reading Zebe as town?

[zMuffinMan]

My point is that your read on Regfan is probably wrong.

Really? Because I'm currently thinking he could be scum.

His lurking is not because his is trying to avoid attention.

His lurking has nothing to do with why I think he's scum.

For now, I'm satisfied with his contribution.

Are you currently reading him as town? What do you like about his "contribution"?

[zMuffinMan]

@YKV,

So why aren't you voting one of your suspects, then?

---

Your last post didn't imply that but oh well.

*shrug* I was saying that if regfan is scum then you are probably town. that's all.

Forget about lynching Wake and Zebe.

Why?

---

hmm ok so VA is town

Why?

---

I see that [fireflies is] just wagoning, in a really scummy way.

do you think fireflies is scum? if so, why aren't you voting him? how have your reads changed since 634?

and why haven't you addressed anything i've said about you?

[zMuffinMan]

yes, the question was why is zebe town?

[zMuffinMan]

the first quote was something i've thought about a bit and concluded it was null at best.
second quote is null at best.
third quote makes me think scum more than town. i don't see why he'd deliberately not give town reads, except that he thinks he looks town for doing it.

[zMuffinMan]

(you really should be able to figure out the possible scum motivation behind the first two quotes)

[zMuffinMan]

i think you're thinking too deeply about how he thought those comments would appear.

i believe the tone of the first two comments is casual. i just don't think they're casual from a town perspective.

and the third comment didn't sound casual at all.

[zMuffinMan]

Thing is, would scum really be carefree enough to comment like that?

i have seen scum comment on someone being "pr or scum" so i'm not reading it as a town thing. it could be a town thing, but there is nothing inherently town about it. and backing off from someone that they think is a pr is something scum often do (because, hey, backing off from someone you think is a pr potentially makes you look better when they claim the pr).

as for him being carefree about the whole "don't kill me" stuff, i don't see it as town. he has equal motivation as town and scum to say something like that. in fact, i find it far more likely he'd address it as scum who is legitimately worried about being vigged for lurking.

He wants people to ask him for townreads.

if he wanted this, he didn't need to be obtuse about it. he could have just given them in the first place.

how did he expect the conversation to go?

"i have town reads but im not giving them unless you ask"
"who are your town reads?"
"X, Y, Z"

if he's town, he can cut the middle part. the general town attitude is "these are my reads, if you want explanations for any i'll give them" and this is a legitimate attitude because it's often unnecessary to explain reads that others agree upon. but not giving the reads altogether?

[zMuffinMan]

and backing off from someone that they think is a pr is something scum often do (because, hey, backing off from someone you think is a pr potentially makes you look better when they claim the pr).

in addition to this, when he backed off from wake, he didn't try to discourage the wagon in any way. which is, again, something i could see him doing as scum because he wants the claim to happen (to confirm wake is a PR) but doesn't want to be involved in the wagon that makes him do this.

[zMuffinMan]

I don't find scum purposefully making suspicious comments.

:/ then how do you find scum?

i don't think he

realised

it was a "suspicious" comment.

I also don't feel that scum would really run up and say "Hey, don't shoot me."

it's null because town doesn't have any more motivation to say this than scum.

Laziness

this would make sense if it was about explanations, but the reads themselves? no.

[zMuffinMan]

Are you going to pile your votes on Shamrock then?

i'm not currently scum reading shamrock. i saw your points about him, but there was nothing particularly convincing about it.

---

So you think scumZebe unknowingly said "oh he was scum or PR"?

no, i think he knows what he said, i just don't think he understands that it could be interpreted as scummy. just like players who have said this in past games...

Why would town say it, in your opinion?
Why would scum say it?

in both cases, because they don't want to die. this seems rather basic. :/

I don't think it's scummy since I personally refused to give out townreads in my first few games on-site. I can sorta see where he's coming from.

he didn't refuse to give them, he just didn't give them. that's the point. i don't think it's scummy for someone like beastcharizard to say he doesn't give them, because that's a mentality he has about it. but that's an entirely different situation.

[zMuffinMan]

do you think regfan can actually be lynched today? there's <4 days to the deadline (i'm assuming no extension if a replacement isn't found) and there doesn't seem to be much support for lynching him.

on that note,

YellowKingValley: beastcharizard, Venrob (2)
Not Voting: Zebe, Humble Poirot, yessiree

ykv isn't being lynched today, and there shouldn't be so many people not voting.

[zMuffinMan]

With flips, we can start analyzing interactions, voting patterns and other things. As of now, I think we are fairly in the dark.

i don't really consider this valuable information when it's highly likely that going into night phase without a lynch only allows scum to dictate what the want us to know. (e.g. assuming wake and ykv are town, it's likely this is a <=4T setup, so scum probably have a roleblocker, and any information we learn from kills is what scum

wants

us to learn). i think we'll be more in the dark if we no lynch.

[zMuffinMan]

I haven't seen anything that seems too productive or focused.

the main reason for this is the amount of people currently lurking/coasting. i dunno if it's because some sort of apathy has set in due to all the replacements. *shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

beastcharizard's ISO is quite scummy

my thoughts on beastcharizard are mostly based on the tone of his posts and not the content. the content can be quite meh, but the way in which it's written makes me think town. i gave some examples of this earlier in a spoiler wall if you want my thoughts on this. i'm a bit worried that he's among the players that are suddenly under the radar, but eh.

[zMuffinMan]

I would like to state that I will give town reads but I don't see the point in telling people them.

Some theory discussion here:

The two main reasons are transparency (the more thoughts you give on the game, the easier it is for someone else to read you - a good thing if you're town) and accountability (so people can go back and look at your reads and say, "hey, you thought X was town earlier, now you think he's scum, what changed?" or vice versa). There are other reasons as well (e.g. forming voting blocs, and people who use townhunting as a way to find scum from POE - like me - often out town reads a lot), but those first two are the two I think are most important.

More importantly, there is no reason

not

to give town reads. It doesn't

help

scum - scum can figure out who is generally thought of as town and who are the biggest threats without knowing your town reads. You're only being detrimental to town by hiding your reads.

[zMuffinMan]

Now that I think about it you can most likely PoE my town reads from my scum reads

yeah, that is what I was saying about scum generally being about to figure out who is thought of as town...

anyway, enough theory discussion. there are probably a number of threads discussing this in Mafia Discussion if you want to go and see why it's agreed by almost every player on this site that outing town reads is a good thing.

[zMuffinMan]

you should have requested a deadline extension just for the sake of having one. :/

[zMuffinMan]

I hope none of you think I'm scum because of my inactivity.

i'm pretty sure no one has even mentioned this as a point against you.

and this is rather poor given roughly 60 hours to the deadline.

[zMuffinMan]

regfan, where you at? elections aren't even important.

[zMuffinMan]

in any game you're in, L-2 is functionally L-1.

i have some issues with pa's catchup post, but i'm going to wait until she finishes catching up before i comment on anything.

[zMuffinMan]

ok. i'll start with your first catchup post and then i'll start looking a bit closer at your most recent wall.

the first issue i have is what appears to be inconsistency in how you arrived at your reads.

e.g. how you ended up with ykv as a slight scum read, seeing as i can't see the conclusion coming from the thoughts you gave on him. you go from maybe scum but gut town to not liking his points system and that i suppose makes him end up as a slight scum read. there's no comments on his later posts, no comments on his blatant soft-claims, etc.

the wake read is all over the place.

and i feel like most of this post was a commentary with analysis that felt rather weak.

i also have minor issues with the language you use. but i'm not entirely sure this has anything to do with your alignment. e.g. i find scum far more likely to use the phrase "x can be town".

these are just some general issues i had with the first catchup wall. i'm going to get some food and come back and read them both again.

[zMuffinMan]

@PA,

why do you have me listed as a strong town read when your only comment on my posts is that my town reads are strange but i'm town for kaze? if you think my reads are so odd, shouldn't this at least make you doubt your town read on kaze (like you later reversed your read on regfan)?

i also don't see how regfan's initial catchup post changed your impression of that slot so much when you seemed rather convinced jane was scum in your first catchup post. what did you like about it, seeing as most of his reads are different to yours?

re:874,

it wasn't clear that you had a scum read on wake from your first catchup wall. but in #874 you make it seem as though you were reading wake as scum.

i didn't so much care about what your ykv read was but how you came about it and why you commented on basically none of his posts after the first few pages. iirc he dropped the way of recording town points after the first 5 pages and that was the last thing you commented on in regards to him up to p18. he might be sk, but the point i was getting at is you didn't even mention his soft claiming in your initial catchup, so i found it odd how you arrived at a slight scum read on him.

language choice wasn't a major issue i had. it's just something i notice, and i don't particularly care to parse games to find out if this is something you do often because it's not a major issue.

my issue with your catchup posts isn't so much stream-of-consciousness, but that the analysis in that stream of consciousness is rather weak in comparison to the amount of stuff that felt like nothing more than commentary.

i didn't elaborate on my ykv read because i didn't see a need to - nobody asked and it seems rather unnecessary unless someone wants me to elaborate. i don't recall the initial reasons i thought he was town, but iirc it had something to do with the way he was scum hunting and how genuine i thought is posts looked. i form most of my reads by looking at how natural posts sound, so my reads on players like ykv and beastcharizard are largely because of how natural and genuinely town their posts seem to me.

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote

I'm tired and want to look at these posts after some sleep. I'm aware of the deadline, and I'm not sure I'll change my mind, but I still want to look at it with fresh eyes when I wake up.

Also, anyone who wants a lynch other than PA needs to do more than they're currently doing to push their preferred lynch.

[zMuffinMan]

i'll probably hammer in the next 10 hours or so, but i'll be around for most of the day until then

@PA,

the biggest problem i have with your posts so far is that, while nothing is overtly scummy, i'm not picking up any cues that make me think "yeah, this is a town post".

i'm also not currently seeing aptil as scum - you claimed your predecessor was newbtown, i think aptil is the very definition of newbtown. i'll do some iso reading in a bit and consider the possibility that i'm reading this game completely wrong, but your predecessor's post make far more sense from a scum perspective.

i'm not a fan of how easily some people jumped on your wagon, but i don't think they're scum for it.

[zMuffinMan]

We're talking about my wagon and we're trying to figure out where scum helped tie the noose. What's your pick?

pending night kills and any flips there, i'd assess the reasons and inconsistencies in people's reads on you. i don't currently have a pick. reassessing my reads on aptil and venrob would prob be first port of call.

if you are town, then i've gone seriously wrong somewhere in reading this game and i'm not entirely sure where.

[zMuffinMan]

@PA,

what's your take on the stuff i spoiler-walled in 653? (you can ignore the stuff about zebe below the spoiler wall if you want)

[zMuffinMan]

Yeah... I don't think anything is going to change my mind at this point. I've been going over ISOs and not seeing the obvscum in players like aptil that others are apparently seeing. Even his recent posts, while not very good or well thought out, don't really strike me as scummy.

I need to know whether I'm right or wrong about PA before I start second guessing my other reads.

Vote: Penguin_Alien

[zMuffinMan]

interesting. i'm guessing the HP kill was either SK or scum, which is kind of odd considering there's a claimed doc and a guy softclaiming vig still alive.

will be going back over the people who were sheeping me onto the PA wagon to figure out who i was reading incorrectly.

[zMuffinMan]

OBF seemed to be "guiding" jane.

when was this?

I'll make an assumption that jane is not using a lot of WIFOM. Thus:

i'll be going back over jane's posts some time either tonight or maybe tomorrow, but i don't think it's wise to try to infer buddies from a single post by jane.

---

Good shot. Killing 1 scum at night is pretty awesome.

i really don't like posts like this. it's equivalent to congratulating the doc.

---

My YKV has been explained.

when? explain it again. have any of your reads changed because of flips? what are your reads outside of ykv?

[zMuffinMan]

assuming he's town in a <=4T setup, they could have, you know, roleblocked him.

[zMuffinMan]

Then he needs to claim his target and claimed roleblocked.

how would he even know he was roleblocked if he didn't target either Regfan or HP?

---

What did you do night1?

keep calm, muffin.
*breathe in*
*breathe out*
*breathe in*
*breathe out*
i am at peace now.

---

This is my YKV vote explaination. Since you had to ask, I must assume you are not even reading anything.

are you serious? that was over 700 posts ago. over 28 pages ago. are you seriously telling me that nothing about your read/s has changed since then?

---

So that would be a VTL VierraAssasin next.

i don't think VA is scum with regfan.

---

anyway, will be doing some reading tonight.

[zMuffinMan]

while i meant that as somewhat of a joke, it frustrates me to no end how anti-town some of the things you say are, and it frustrates me because i'm not sure if it means anything about your alignment.

[zMuffinMan]

feeling lethargic tonight so will probably do my reading tomorrow morning.

[zMuffinMan]

no, you're doing the probabilities wrong because there isn't an equal chance of all 6 choices. it should be (1/10)^3*(9/10)^4*35. also i did all the calculations for it earlier in the game. DD is about 12% DDD is about 2%

[zMuffinMan]

going over jane's ISO, i see things that point to OBF, Shamrock and beastcharizard not being scum with jane, other than that i don't see much there because it was almost entirely tunneling on my slot with very little scum hunting outside of it. the reads list is really odd, but all of the explanations are rather crap so i don't particularly want to play the wifom game of where she'd have been most likely to put her buddies.

regfan's iso isn't much more help given how little he posted. i don't think VA makes much sense as scum with regfan. apart from that, meh. aptil could be town.

going to go over some other ISOs because i'm not particularly confident in any of my reads atm.

[zMuffinMan]

You should be scum hunting and not liability to town hunting. We got plenty of info now so use it to find SCUM.

the biggest issue i have when i see anyone say something like this is that it's usually hypocritical.

how are

you

going about finding scum right now, beastcharizard? why aren't

you

using this "plenty of info" to find scum?

[zMuffinMan]

i don't believe ykv has outright claimed vig.

why do you think ykv is scum? i've seen you talk about how his posts are "scummy" but i've never seen you really talk about why you think this and what specifically you find scummy.

when did you start being convinced i am scum? because a few posts ago you were null on me.

[zMuffinMan]

between #1036 and #1043, you went from being "null" on me to being "convinced i'm scum based on interaction". the only post between those two by me is #1042, and i'm not really seeing how this changed your mind, so i'm wondering how this change came about.

[zMuffinMan]

i think you're misinterpreting the term "liability". it sounds like he thinks you're a liability because you

are

scummy but he isn't convinced this makes you scum (thus you're a liability if you are town, but you could be scum).

you're making it seem as though he has a town read on you and is policy lynching you or something, when that really isn't the case.

what about YKV talking about me makes you think we're scum together. give some examples that made you think this when you "went back to their ISO".

[zMuffinMan]

@beastcharizard,

what about YKV talking about me makes you think we're scum together? give some examples that made you think this when you "went back to their ISO".

---

---

beast backed off on the P_A wagon when D1 ended, he got cold feet when it was time to hammer, even though he claimed he would hammer if needed to

do you think this makes beast town?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not convinced on yraelz being scum. who's your second (or third) choice for scum, VA?

[zMuffinMan]

@beastcharizard,

can you answer the question i've asked you twice now? (three times if you include this)

[zMuffinMan]

If not and he failed again to net a heal tonight, I will support a policy lynch tomorrow.

i don't think that makes a lot of sense, seeing as the possibility of a roleblocker exists. deciding whether or not to lynch yraelz based on his role alone seems rather dumb. judge the play first. do you think he's scum based on play?

also depending on how this day plays out and the following night phase plays out, policy lynching tomorrow might not be a good idea.

anyway i'll probably stop being lazy and start putting effort into figuring out this game after some sleep. i have mixed feelings about too many players at the moment.

[zMuffinMan]

@beastcharizard,

can you give all your current reads, or at least reads on aptil, yraelz and obf?

[zMuffinMan]

^ same question @aptil, except replace your name with beastcharizard

[zMuffinMan]

This is what i feel about beastcharizard #882 His recent interactions have just made me sure about this.

just to be clear, does this mean you're reading beastcharizard as town?

---

Top Scum Reads: Venrob, Wake88, and YKV.
Top Town Reads: Beast

what were these reads based on?

and how does venrob's claim affect these reads?

---

@Venrob
Why is Yraelz automatically cleared again? Just for claiming Doctor? Claimed Doctors are not proven doctors... counterclaims are still irrelevant.

any setup with a 1-shot doc has a full doc in it.

from venrob's pov, there

must be

a doc in this game, and since no one counter-claimed, he thinks yraelz is basically conf town.

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, i'm currently thinking there's 1 scum in aptil/beastcharizard, and i'm looking at either obf/shamrock as the other.

ykv/VA/venrob/yraelz/yessiree i'm pretty sure are all town.

currently leaning beastcharizard as the scum between him and aptil, not entirely sure on the obf/shamrock pair.

[zMuffinMan]

mostly based on interactions with regfan. i think aptil's responses and regfan's push on aptil make aptil more likely town.

jane's interactions with both of you are fairly insignificant.

[zMuffinMan]

see, the biggest problem i have with you, beastcharizard, is that i can't tell what your reads were on a lot of players because you never gave town reads.

so i look at the way you interacted with jane early and i see you attacking kaze who was attacking jane, you never really comment on jane's posts, then after regfan replaces you make an off-the-cuff comment about how you never really found anything jane did scummy, even though all she did was tunnel kaze.

so i'm asking you now to give your reads on players and you're not doing it. either you ignored it or you didn't read it.

[zMuffinMan]

why is VA town?

partially gut from the way he's coming across in the tone of his posts (aggressive in a good way, seems to genuinely think his reads are right, most of this part came from interactions with me d1), partially because of the way he interacted with regfan, and partially because i think regfan is the type of player who wouldn't put his scum partners in the null pile; he's experienced enough to know that's the first place people look for scum once someone has flipped.

---

@titus,

re: wake,

first, i highly doubt wake fake-claimed doc as a VT, and then yraelz continued this. it's either scum or doc at this point, as far as i'm concerned. second, you go into a lot of detail about the doc stuff but not much on why you think he was scummy. can you talk about that?

re: venrob,

have you played with venrob before?

re: ykv,

when you say he's pushing the wrong wagons, is there more to it than you disagreeing with his reads? what about his pushes do you think is scummy?

re: beastcharizard,

how exactly has beastcharizard been directing the group away from "chaos"? and why do you find his scumhunting genuine in comparison to, say, ykv's or anyone else's? examples would help.

---

@beastcharizard,

why do your reads on predecessors not play a factor in determining your read on a slot?

also, what specifically did you not like about aptil's play d1 and why does this make aptil scum?

---

Upon reading Regfan's wall, ferretlover looks really scummy. Both scum readwalls on the same slot Day 1 have it as a null. That's almost worth a vote just for that.

Beast likely isn't scum.

Shamrock also gets more scum suspicion.

i disagree with all three of these conclusions. the ferretlover one i talked about in my response to shamrock above, and the beast and shamrock ones i don't see how you really got that from reading regfan's read wall. shamrock could be scum, but i don't see where that follows from regfan's read on him, and beastcharizard being town for regfan's read on him doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[zMuffinMan]

Those who go after my town reads hard go up my scum radar fast.

this seems like faulty logic, and not a very good reason to base a read on.

why couldn't someone be town and disagree with your reads? what specifically about wake's push on hp and kaze did you think was scum motivated?

YKV has voted only three times. Once for Zebe, town. Second for Shamrock and a third for my slot. He's all talking about liabilities than actually scumhunting.

i don't see the relevance here. i've technically only voted once this game (on zebe, town).

ykv has been scum hunting in his own way outside his votes. i don't really see what's "scummy" about him talking about liabilities, and i don't really understand what your issue with the way he's scum hunted so far is.

This post was obvtown to me. Beast is pushing his choice of lynch, elaborating why and directing the town. There's no talk of liabilities or any other garbage like that.

i think your major qualm with ykv has everything to do with his use of the term "liability" and almost nothing to do with his actual play. if he hadn't used the term liability, you could describe his play in exactly the same manner.

and the thing is, what you describe as "obvtown" behaviour isn't really all that obvtown. scum can do exactly the thing you described, so i'm not sure how or why that makes you think beastcharizard is obvtown.

---

Lurking TPR's are helpful by NOT getting killed and using their abilities.

no, not really. people overrate the usefulness of power roles (if they even exist) and letting people lurk because they

might

have a power role is an awful idea. lurking is almost

never

optimal strategy as a PR, especially in a fucking game that could have a vig or two (because viges are likely to kill the lurkers)

anyway, you're missing the point ykv was making. lurking is antitown and something scum often do.

[zMuffinMan]

no it's not wifom. lurking is anti-town. there is no wifom about this.

your issue with ykv seems to have a lot to do with the way he scum hunts and not a lot to do with the actual content of his posts. i don't really have an issue with his content, even if he has a style that i don't necessarily agree with.

[zMuffinMan]

how do you find scum if anti-town play isn't a factor? there's a reason some people employ the lurk all lynchers policy, and it's not necessarily a scum motivated policy. like i said, i don't necessarily agree with ykv's style, but i don't see it as inherently scummy and i see a lot of the content he posts as rather town.

i also don't think it's fair to say he's just hunting lurkers. i recall him initially attacking zebe d1 to pressure him then backing up when he was apparently satisfied with the content zebe provided. if his aim was easy lynches, what do you make of him backing off from zebe?

[zMuffinMan]

yeah, my point is that if he is pushing lynches on lurkers like you're suggesting, then him backing off from zebe contradicts this. and if you're suggesting he's scummy for pressuring lurkers, then ??? and more ??? because that's fairly standard play and your issue seems to be a playstyle one that isn't necessarily alignment-indicative.

also, ykv hasn't

only

been pressuring lurkers. he's been asking questions and hunting most players.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't see the scumminess in them. explain it to me like i'm an idiot (pretend you don't already think i'm an idiot).

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think they're "towny" looking posts, but i don't think they're scummy.

titus has suspicion of venrob and yraelz (who could be linked together, especially with their claims) and ykv (who titus hasn't really linked with anyone). so ykv is clarifying that titus thinks ykv is sk and the other two are factional scum.

titus will probably respond with something like, "find scum, look at connections later," so i don't really see the point of ykv's line of questioning, but it's far from an admission that he's scum and it's not really scummy to question titus about it.

[zMuffinMan]

also i don't think it's scummy because it's a question i often ask (and have asked this game) when someone suspects me and other players as scum. i ask them whether they think i'm scum with said other players, or whether i'm scum independent with them, etc.

it helps me to clarify their stance and get a better read on them.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm not certain Beast is town but I'm strongly leaning that way.

based solely on his response to regfan or did you have other things that made you think this?

[zMuffinMan]

proddodge. been busy, and have a long day ahead, after which i'll be reading this game.

my basic current thoughts are that i'm pretty much in agreeement with most of the stuff ykv has been saying about beastcharizard and disagree with the way titus is reading him. but more on that when i have time.

[zMuffinMan]

zMuffinMan's predecessor had really weird interactions with janeshepherd. Also scum

elaborate

1. Why is beastcharizard scummy?
2. Overall read on shamrock? on Viera Assassin?
3. Reactions to my claim?

1. how much of the thread have you actually read, that you don't know the reasons people think beastcharizard is scum? it's a mixture of him not being a town read, he makes sense as scum with regfan (i've talked about this a bit already, i believe) and i think his play today has lacked any direction outside of wanting ykv lynched. when he hasn't been mindlessly pushing ykv today, he hasn't been doing much of anything. he gave some one-liner reads (a lot of which were null) and that's about it.
2. town, town
3. probably a scum claim. i could maybe see a player fake-claiming doc initially, but yraelz keeping it up for so long looks more like him trying to make the best of the situation. it also makes the HP kill make soooooooo much more sense given he was one of the only players (the only player?) who still thought your slot was scum. the only scenario i'm considering you could be town is if yraelz was trying to draw a roleblock/nk, but him continuing the lie d2 is making me think you're more likely scum.

why do you think beastcharizard is town? go into more detail about town things you think he's done outside of his response to regfan (which i didn't really find genuine, and you haven't really explained why you think it's genuine).

Consider a DDDD setup. The doctor probably thought he's not the only one. Thats all.

this is unlikely given all the probability discussion that was going on earlier in the game (the chances of DDDD are so incredibly low... like 1 in 400 setups low). i have a theory for why a real doc might not have claimed (assuming one even exists) but i'm not going to talk about it.

---

Summary: DOC ON ME BEAST OR MATIAS, DOC DON'T BE ON YKV OR TITUS.

good play is to completely ignore anything venrob says, for reference.

not being on titus is about the only correct part of that sentence.

---

I am seeing a scenario based on your posts. The scums have a rolecop and checked Wake. That would explain why he's still alive.

this is so dumb on so many levels that i almost feel like it has to be faked.

[zMuffinMan]

hey matias, why have you not commented on that titus quote yet?

[zMuffinMan]

what do

you

call what you are doing now?

[zMuffinMan]

After zmuffin called my post dumb, I relooked. This setup doesn't have a rolecop.

well, it's also dumb because no rolecop will ever waste their role on a claimed cop, and it's further dumb because this wouldn't even explain why they didn't kill yraelz. and you should know all this, even if you forgot about there being no rolecop in this setup. which is why i'm trying to figure out whether that was a really fake 'townslip'.

Zmuffin, spitballing here. What if Matias and Zenrob are scum together?

then they're scum together?

the only thing that links them is a weird premature claim by venrob when they yraelz wasn't even under any pressure. i don't think venrob is scum atm, just dumb.

but if venrob is scum, then this points to matias being scum due to the nature of the way he claimed. it doesn't work the other way around, though.

it's not something i'm particularly worried about at the moment

[zMuffinMan]

But if you have that theory, then there's a chance for that, right?

no, my theory is nothing like you're suggesting, but like i said, i'm not going to talk about it.

I focused more on his motivation and skipped over it

do you believe he faked it or not? if you do, you should have commented, and if you don't you should realise what this means about your titus read.

This is what you were talking about? Isn't there a lot of people involved in the disconnect between the playstyles of janeshepherd and Regfan?

that is one of the things that i think points to beast making sense as scum with regfan. another is that i believe regfan did have one scummate in his scum reads, and of the ones still alive, i think beast is most likely (i talked about this briefly). there's nothing solid (because... there's so little interaction between beast and jane/regfan's slot) so i can't point to anything other than they make sense as scum together and i see reasons that others make less sense as scum with the regfan slot.

you apparently think aptil is more likely, but i don't think so for a few reasons, the primary one being that it seems like an unnecessary bus with other options available. i mean, i suppose it's possible, and it's not something i'm ruling out, but i think aptil is less likely atm.

also, the connections with regfan/jane are only a minor part of why i think beast is scum. his general play today is what's made me feel more uneasy about him.

the problem i have right now is that i'm unsure who's scum if beast is town. i don't think ykv is scum (at least not mafia). i'm not sure on titus, but i felt fireflies looked kinda townish. i need to do some iso reading.

[zMuffinMan]

mm it's not exactly

standard

scum protocol, but it's not something that doesn't ever happen. but anyway, i'll look at it again when i wake up.

[zMuffinMan]

gonna get some food, watch a couple episodes of stuff, then start reading here.

had a thought last night as i was going to sleep. one of the things beast said he did in his scum game (which he kind of did do) is hunt the SK. given how much suspicion there is that YKV is the SK in this game, this is sort of ironic.

anyway, more later.

[zMuffinMan]

@matias,

what is your read on yessiree?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm trying to do a hard reset on all my reads and now i'm paranoid about yessiree. hm.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think beast is scum anymore. just really misguided town. i'm thinking my thought process about the SK stuff is flawed because if he was

actually

hunting the SK in this game, he wouldn't admit that's what he does as scum. and some of his recent posts are making me think town.

[zMuffinMan]

currently thinking

YKV, venrob, shamrock, beast, VA

titus
matias
aptil
yessiree

town reads up top.

still trying to sort the rest but it's roughly town->scum likelihood in descending order.

hm

[zMuffinMan]

wat

you think beast is mafia if ykv is mafia because beast unvoted after a back-and-forth with matias and you think it was because venrob said he'd vote the biggest wagon and beast was planning to make venrob vote you?

...

wow

[zMuffinMan]

@ykv,

yeah i realise that. i was giving yessiree and aptil basically a free pass because of town reads on them but i'm looking back over them now and thinking i could be wrong. one thing i realised when i started looking back over yessiree's posts is i have absolutely no idea who he thinks is scum right now. like.. no idea. he's willing to lynch VA because VA's activity dropped, and he doesn't want beast around at lylo but is gut reading him as town i think?

[zMuffinMan]

I personally think yessiree is town, and I don't think he has the right connections to regfan.

elaborate


also,

Vote: aptil

[zMuffinMan]

why does it seem fake to you?

do you think he's scum with the wake-slot? do you realise that crumbing came before the doc claim? do you think they planned it or something?

[zMuffinMan]

@aptil

why do you think venrob is scum? if it's just for what you said in 1410, then can you answer the questions in 1411?

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote

hold on. need to read some stuff.

[zMuffinMan]

@yessiree,

Who do you actually think is scum?

[zMuffinMan]

@aptil,

i see it as unlikely that venrob and wake planned the doc stuff. it would have had to happen pregame (pretty sure c9++ doesn't allow for daytalk) and it's an extremely risky move because if one of them is lynched, the other automatically looks bad - and if there is a SK, the claims and link to each other make them very likely targets for that SK, so it just makes it an even worse idea for them to do as scum together.

i also just don't think venrob is scum in general - his play is so absurdly stupid and the confidence in his play despite this comes across as more townish than scummy.

talk about your reads other than venrob.

[zMuffinMan]

although the one thing that does make me uneasy about venrob is how he's constantly trying to direct a potential doctor. that

could

be because he's up shit creek without a paddle and fears the SK. but i think that's unlikely at the moment. i would prefer he stops doing it, though, because his idea is dumb.

[zMuffinMan]

Why do we need crumbing in an open setup anyways?I understand it for themed games

it's not

technically

open, it's semi-open, but people crumb in opens anyway. if you're up against a potential counter-claim, you at least want to show it's more likely you're the real deal. i personally hate crumbing like that altogether, but some people think this way, so whatever. *shrug*

How the fuck can #1410 possibly come from town?

why does the "stupidity" of #1410 point to scum and not town? why is it not too stupid to be scum as well?

what are your current reads?

Lets see how good your plan is. I am willing to follow it for now.

why do you make posts like this? having one player directing vigs and SKs is

never

a good thing. not to mention his idea for directing the doc is borderline retarded as well.

My next scumread would have to be Shamrock.

elaborate on this read, and any others you may have.

[zMuffinMan]

This is a scum player overlooking a rare instance of hard evidence in order to push a bad lynch.

that makes little sense. if it's hard evidence of venrob being town (i disagree with this anyway, but i'll grant you it for the sake of this argument), what does aptil-scum gain from attacking venrob here?

or are you trying to make the argument that he overlooked this because he's not thinking like town, or something? (even though it's apparently very obvious)

On who?

on anyone? who are your scum reads, town reads, whatever? you've had a huge lack of presence for a while now. i want to know your thoughts on the game.

[zMuffinMan]

hm. shamrock has been a weaker town read of mine for a majority of this game mostly because the snarky tone of some of his posts came across as townish and i liked some of the analysis in the thought processes he's actually presented. but he's been a non-entity today.

[zMuffinMan]

one thing that irks me about shamrock now that i'm looking at him again is the fact that he seems to have forgotten (for most of today) that he was apparently reading aptil as scum yesterday. the beastcharizard vote with no explanation was kind of weird, and the move to aptil purely for what aptil said about the doc claim stuff is even weirder.

[zMuffinMan]

that wasn't directed at me, but i'll answer anyway. his early d1 posts (mostly prior to where regfan replaced in) are the main reason i'm thinking he could be town.

ebwop: yeah, i'm guessing the numbers ykv just referenced are the same posts i liked

[zMuffinMan]

i'm still thinking about that. honestly, matias, but i don't see it happening today. yessiree is another option, but i also don't see that happening today. i feel uneasy about the titus, aptil and beast wagons and i don't really think any of them are on scum atm.

[zMuffinMan]

shamrock

[zMuffinMan]

there's also VA who's been a huge non-factor today, and i've been giving him a pass due to regfan interactions and the fact i liked the confidence he showed d1, especially in some conversations with me

[zMuffinMan]

it's not that they can't be scum, it's that i don't currently feel they're scum. aptil is a bit of a mixed read, it's partially the way in which the ate is coming across and partially because i don't really see the scum motivation in the way aptil is attacking the people he's attacking. like i mean, unless he's scum with titus/beastcharizard, they're pretty fucking easy targets here, or even ykv, but instead he's suspicious of the doc claims and shamrock? titus i'm still a little back and forth on, but again, the trajectory of her reads is not making a whole lot of sense to me from a scum perspective. if one of them

is

scum, my guess right now would be titus, but i don't feel strongly about that at all.

[zMuffinMan]

also i'm thinking a mass claim tomorrow is a good idea. depending on what happens between now and tomorrow.

[zMuffinMan]

Why would aptil try to get the doc claims lynched? I re-claimed a town doctor claim. It's easy to try to throw shit towards something that can't be proven over scummy play.

mm, maybe. but i don't think it is aptil trying to throw dirt on you, or at least i don't see the scum intent here. there are a number of other players he could be attacking right now, and considering how unlikely it is that we'll actually lynch you or venrob today, why do you think he'd choose to attack the doc claims as scum instead of, say, anyone in {titus, beastcharizard, ykv} like others have been doing.

shamrock isn't an "easy target" either, or at least wasn't when aptil first became suspicious of him, and i believe aptil has been suspicious of shamrock since d1, you know, when shamrock was actually active.

aptil might be scum, but i'm not currently seeing it with the way he's chosen to attack the players he's attacking. it looks like genuine suspicion.

with titus, i dunno, i'm less sure on that one. i have trouble figuring out titus because part of me wants to lynch her in every game. she's that kind of player, whose thought processes always look like scum thought processes. *shrug* i'm a sucker for good ate. remind me what she's done that's scummy.

[zMuffinMan]

maybe. not necessarily.

[zMuffinMan]

it bothers me so much that yessiree keeps chiming in asking about scum reads, calling people town, then disappearing without ever giving his

own

scum reads. saying he has mixed feelings about matias is the closest he's come to giving a scum read today and everyone seems to be ignoring this...

to admit to not being the doctor he gives up his clear status, something NO scum would ever do.

um... you can't be fucking serious here. admitting he's not the doctor

after you claimed 1-shot doc

is the only thing he could do at that point, regardless of whether he's scum or town because if you are really a 1-shot doc, that just complicates things for him later oni

[zMuffinMan]

i don't see what's so scummy about what titus said. seems like a logical thought process. *shrug* it could have come from scum, but i see no reason to assume it did.

[zMuffinMan]

i'll probably be voting shamrock later tonight but i wanna go over titus/aptil isos once more first.

@ykv,

why titus?

[zMuffinMan]

matias who is scum if titus is town?

Vote: yessiree

this is more a temporary vote than anything because i highly doubt this wagon will ever take off. :<

i still don't think titus is scum, and i still don't think aptil is scum, and a shamrock lynch isn't happening.

[zMuffinMan]

Well, doctor should undoubtedly be on YKV.

in any setup where venrob and ykv are town, this is bad advice. don't say shit like this. because any setup where they're both town means scum have a roleblocker. i'm not saying don't protect ykv, that should still be something a potential doc considers just to keep scum guessing. but directing the doc like this just leaves scum open to pick and choose who they want dead while roleblocking YKV. which is the most likely scenario. just sayin'.

[zMuffinMan]

if you're aware of it, then you (AND VENROB) need to stop directing PR actions. stop talking about it altogether.

[zMuffinMan]

Such a shitty plan. Of course it would come from scum

first sentence is correct. second sentence isn't.

This is such a bullshit post . I am not voting titus because i do not think he is going to flip scum . So when he flips town i am supposed to be the next scum .It appears you are lining up one lynch after another .

i somewhat agree with this, and i think it's even weirder that matias supposedly thinks VA is scum regardless of you two, suggesting he is much more sure of that than of either of you two, and doesn't want to push that lynch instead.

[zMuffinMan]

well i suppose that's unfair since i did ask him about a hypothetical where titus is town, but i still think it's strange that he is apparently so sure of VA being scum but hasn't done much in the way of pushing that lynch.

[zMuffinMan]

:/ remind me why you think titus is scum. i don't recall the reasons outside of what you gave when you originally voted titus.

Holy shit obliteratedbyfireflies/Titus looks really horrible. Regfan barely mentions him. He's hopped on almost every major wagon. Didn't really push anybody.

[zMuffinMan]

no, even if titus does claim doc, a shamrock wagon isn't happening today. i'll vote titus if necessary, and i'll be around for the next 48 hours as well to talk about it, but i still don't really think titus is scum.

[zMuffinMan]

and i'm aware that a yessiree lynch isn't likely to happen, especially with that slot being replaced and unable to claim, but meh, i don't like either of the other wagons atm.

:/ my reads have been all over the place today, but i'm not liking the current wagons at all

i also have this weird gut feeling that i'm going to be killed tonight and scum are just going to roll through mislynches to the endgame.

[zMuffinMan]

Vote: caledfwitch

[zMuffinMan]

I need to scan through the thread, which will take forever now

I will not claim/vote until I finish reading the thread

did you do any reading over the night phase / where are you currently at?

[zMuffinMan]

you should give reads as you're reading through the thread. that would be cool. i would prefer that over one post at the end of your reading.

[zMuffinMan]

who is scum, VA?

[zMuffinMan]

go on...

[zMuffinMan]

i'm thinking mass claim could potentially be held off until tomorrow. maybe. if there is a doc in this game, it might be OK to wait until tomorrow.

also, i don't think VA is scum.

and i sure as fuck don't want a lynch happening prior to caled having any input in this game.

[zMuffinMan]

actually yeah, may as well do it today. start with either VA or caled i guess, and popcorn.

[zMuffinMan]

person who claims chooses next person to claim and so on and so forth until claims are done

[zMuffinMan]

saki blacklisted me (and maybe beastcharizard and shamrock, too) so he couldn't continue playing this game.

[zMuffinMan]

and the mod, too, actually.

[zMuffinMan]

caled, claim in your next post. also, why is it taking so long to read the thread?

not sure what to do around VA's slot with claiming stuff, but i guess he can just go last and whoever replaces him claims in first post

[zMuffinMan]

don't have much time now, will be around tomorrow after work.

briefly skimmed the last couple pages.

don't really believe saki would choose not to use his 1-shot.

not impressed with caled's posts.

i want to continue mass claim, but i'd prefer shamrock('s slot) claims next. i'd rather not talk about why until after it happens.

[zMuffinMan]

With 4 VTs dead , i am pretty certtain Caled and i are the last VTs . It would be stupid of the mafia to claim VT imo .

...

Did SPAG just confirmed that there is SK?

if spag is town, then yes, there's likely a SK.

So we have a sk in shamrock/zmuffin .If ykv does not post his results , i am going to start putting him in this slot as well .
1 mafia between beast/caled

...

Interesting to see that beast claims vt.

no, it's not very interesting. beast has been softclaiming VT for days now (no PR says, "hey, i don't mind you shooting me, mr vig!")

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin - its interesting from Caled's point of view, not beasts.

i don't think it really says anything about caled.

[zMuffinMan]

it depends. i'll talk about it after shamrock claims.

[zMuffinMan]

what do you mean, 'follow your vote'?

caled is the yessiree slot, and spag kind of sorta gave his own reasons

[zMuffinMan]

nobody followed you, but whatever.

also i'd prefer deadline be on hold with two important replacements needed.

[zMuffinMan]

like, i mean... i was voting yessiree and talking about him a lot at the end of yesterday, so that should give you some sort of indication of why i'm voting caled. :/

and i don't think spag was sheeping you or anything.

[zMuffinMan]

aptil who do you actually think is scum

[zMuffinMan]

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that I'm the Doctor.

OK. i suspected as much when you were defending venrob D2. if you'd claimed anything other than doctor, i'd probably be going after venrob then you.

out of interest, why did you never suspect wake's claim?

also, may as well finish mass claim. i'm VT.

He fakeclaimed doc at that point

my guess is the possibility that it was a DDD setup played a factor here.

He was suspected as SK.

... he was a claimed cop at the end of D2.

[zMuffinMan]

Unvote

hm

[zMuffinMan]

how do you not know the answer to that without asking?

[zMuffinMan]

the only two scenarios in which spag is not lying are if you and venrob are serial killer + godfather, or venrob is scum of some variety and we're dealing with 2 more of {roleblocker, goon, SK} apart from venrob.

shamrock is 100% confirmed town from spag's PoV, and venrob is 100% confirmed scum from spag's PoV.

[zMuffinMan]

it's interesting that you weren't roleblocked

[zMuffinMan]

well, assuming you're town, unless we hit roleblocker today, the more likely scenario is that you'll be roleblocked tonight and shamrock will be killed.

but yes, we need to hit scum today obv.

[zMuffinMan]

it's between spag and venrob today, and i'm leaning spag

[zMuffinMan]

nah VA replaced out for other reasons

caled dunno

[zMuffinMan]

#1853 pretty much explains it, but i'll break it down anyway

you said you're a 1-shot vig who still has his vig shot. there was a scum kill N1. that means that if you're telling the truth, there's a SK in this game

the claimed PRs are such that the setup would be DDCCVTT if they are all telling the truth, and there's no SK in a DDCCVTT setup.

so at least one of the claimed PRs is lying. YKV could be lying, but that wouldn't change anything (because a DDVTTTT setup also doesn't have a SK), so another of the claimed PRs is lying.

if you're town, from your PoV, one of venrob and shamrock must be telling the truth, and it must be shamrock because shamrock can't be scum unless venrob is scum.

[zMuffinMan]

also shamrock can't be scum if you're town, so from your PoV, shamrock is 100% confirmed and venrob is 100% scum

[zMuffinMan]

those are my basic thoughts since i don't think VA makes a lot of sense as scum with regfan.

i'll probably be voting spag today but i wanna give venrob another look before i do.

[zMuffinMan]

i think that's more a "what if...?" scenario than thinking it's likely.

it's still dumb though, since we should really be dealing with venrob-spag issue today, not tomorrow when it could potentially screw us over.

[zMuffinMan]

yes you just went through all the possibilities . . . . .

we already covered them, but whatever.

[zMuffinMan]

i haven't had a chance to do reading i wanted to do here

will get to it tonight then maybe hammer.

[zMuffinMan]

claims are 4 VTs and a cop.

cop is basically confirmed after roleblocker flip

[zMuffinMan]

non-T is any PR in C9++

[zMuffinMan]

the roleblocker flip means there's at least 3 non-T in this setup and the presence of a serial killer means there's either 4 or 6 non-T in this setup

so the claimed PRs have to add up to 4 or 6 "points"

doc and 1-shot doc are 2 of those points
a full cop is another 2 of those points

since there have been no other PR flips and no other claimed PRs, cop claim is legit.

that's about as simple an explanation as you'll get without reading the setup

[zMuffinMan]

his first investigation was shamrock (dead)

and he has an "inno" on beast so beast is at least not-mafia

and he claimed a guilty in his first post so i'm just going to sit here and wait until he stops being stubborn about outing it

[zMuffinMan]

SK can be investigation-immune

[zMuffinMan]

taken from the godfather PM

Investigation Immunity: You appear innocent to Cop investigations.

[zMuffinMan]

and no YKV, it would be dumb to "scumhunt and vote" because it's essentially lylo

[zMuffinMan]

like you have a guilty at lylo. no one should be voting until you out the guilty.

[zMuffinMan]

2 of guyett, aptil and beast are scum.

ok. my job is done. back in a week.

[zMuffinMan]

And why the did what they did yesterday.

did

what

yesterday?

yesterday was rather uneventful. setup speculation, figured out spag was likely scum out of the two possible liars (spag, venrob).

lynch happened.

zMuffin be specific. Who Goon who SK?

if i had to guess, guyett goon, aptil SK.

[zMuffinMan]

outside of giving suspects, there's not much "scumhunting" that can actually be done today, since a specific scum flip will mean the remaining players tomorrow are either looking for connections or looking for someone playing a self-preservation style.

[zMuffinMan]

then join it.

[zMuffinMan]

- from exchange with Regfan, unlikely Goon

which exchange?

[zMuffinMan]

...

[zMuffinMan]

Where are your walls lol.

*effort* i already gave you my reads.

if i had to guess, guyett goon, aptil SK.

(hint: nothing much has changed in the last page)

i mean, i suppose i could go through ISOs and detail these reads, but it mostly comes down to me not liking yessiree or caled's play (i've gone over this so much already it's not funny) and me thinking beast is more likely town than aptil atm.

[zMuffinMan]

who do you

actually

have a guilty on?

[zMuffinMan]

you're either lying or the mod gave you incorrect information.

if you're not lying, check with the mod.

[zMuffinMan]

it's a bad idea to fake-claim in C9++ IMO
it's a bad idea to softclaim in C9++ IMO

just... don't do it in open/semi-open setups without a really, really good goal in mind, and only when it's very, very unlikely to backfire in some way.

[zMuffinMan]

like, one of the major points about C9++ that makes it not only a good setup, but a good setup to play multiple times, is that town can actually work out the roles and spot lies or likely lies (like what happened with venrob vs spag)

when you have people fake-claiming or lying about their role, it hurts town more than it helps because you can't really know whether they're scum doing what's convenient for them at the time or town being foolish

+ honestly, no one is going to take a shot at a claimed doc in C9++ when they can just roleblock them and have free reign over the entire playerlist. any other doc in the game is likely to protect the claimed doc just because there's a possibility of multiple docs in this setup (albeit unlikely).

[zMuffinMan]

like, there was absolutely no way i was shooting you because scum could roleblock OR kill you if they didn't roleblock you, so i saw no point in touching you. and if scum roleblocked you, they had free reign over who they wanted to kill

so your fakeclaim only hurt town, it didn't draw night actions

[zMuffinMan]

oh yeah, that reminds me, it shoulda been super-obvious to anyone paying attention that wake coming in and going, "sup matias, i'll explain why i fake-claimed postgame" made matias town.

lol

[zMuffinMan]

no he made one about fake-claiming. it was most likely deleted. i think he also received some form of punishment for it. i remember seeing him complain about site administration making assumptions that he was referring to an ongoing game (lol lol lol)

[zMuffinMan]

o wait yeah it says in that link it was deleted

[zMuffinMan]

never mind me