Open 526: Lock, Stock and Nine Smoking Barrels (GAME OVER!~)

[pieceofpecanpie]

Howdy everyone.

Since I'm town and all can scum please identify themselves briefly so that the lynching proper can commence?

[pieceofpecanpie]

@Titus

You working with associative tells already? What's the conviction on those 3 being scum? Also could you please elaborate on #943, your response troubles me.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Hey TIP, wanna represent your version properly then?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Oh yeah, forgot to...

UNVOTE: BeastCharizard

...when I wandered in

[pieceofpecanpie]

So unless I mistakenly read this set up as mafia not having daytalk why is everyone under the impression that it's possible to form scum teams based on who defends who on Day 1?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Could you give an example of scum speculation based on who defends who?

For example Beast's #951 and GM's #966 seem based around TSO's scumminess if Titus flips. I haven't read through the whole thread yet, but already the last page gives that sort of flavour...

Do whatever
the fuck
you want.

They're gonna lynch you, Titus. I've tried the whole game, but they won't see sense.

gm take something from this game

you can't read me for shit.

Now this is either an elaborate defence by TSO of his supposed scumbuddy Titus, but with scum daychat that idea feels off. Scum can easily keep bussing/defending a lot more under the radar and discuss amongst themselves how best to do it. If Titus flips scum then, unless I'm being completely duped, I feel TSO is most likely town for posting like this.

@yabba

Does that still sound like nonsense to you? There are relationship tells to be had, but I believe the least likely of those is that

"...it's possible to form scum teams based on who defends who on Day 1"

[pieceofpecanpie]

How about a Town lynch Day 1, THEN a game of who defends whom on Day 2? Arguably, that's even flimsier because the opportunity cost of bussing has dwindled at that point from a Mafia POV.

My point is more along the lines of mafia have less incentive to push for or rally against lynches Day 1. Statistically it will most likely be town so they have little reason to involve themselves heavily and thus still have plenty of opportunity to bus or defend during Day 2.

I am however getting sidetracked by the speculative game tactics and should finish ISO'ing people.

[pieceofpecanpie]

One Townread that really should be universal, TheIrishPope. He's jamming the discussion dynamic with his spam, but it's also indicative of a complete lack of inhibition on his part. Town.

Have you played with TIP before? Did you meta his town and scum games?

[...] You're also making hard for me to go back and reread Yabba.

I'd like to hear how you're reread is going.

[pieceofpecanpie]

heh

i actually didn't realise scum had day talk in this.

Forcing your town tells a little bit hard aren't we?

Are you voting Titus for any particular reason or simply out of convenience? Only it looks to me like you've been idly thumbing your suspicion at yabba without any follow through.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Could you give an example of scum speculation based on who defends who?

For example Beast's #951 and GM's #966 seem based around TSO's scumminess if Titus flips. I haven't read through the whole thread yet, but already the last page gives that sort of flavour...

Why does Beast's 951 give you the idea that he suspects TSO and Titus because they are defending each other?

It doesn't directly, I reached that conclusion by sticking his #806 next to it, which is where he's speculating about scum teams. Although Beast referred to TSO as a "gut" scum read in #640, he now seems to have linked TSO and Titus together for what I can only assume is TSO's defence of Titus.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I'm trying out a new approach to note taking, opting for the manual scribble stuff down as I read through and ISO folks. Based on my notes it's becoming apparent that at this point I don't have much faith in either the Titus or Beast wagons.

I don't believe it's too late to get an alternative wagon going. We've got 6 days to discuss things.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Working on getting a bit of dialogue typed up.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I've been looking through trying to figure out who isn't looking scummy thus far (I find it easier and more effective than looking for scum, especially with day chat).

So a brief summary of my notes thus far:

Titus

• - Titus wagon run up a little too quickly and comfortably, I see some inconsistencies in Titus' posts but nothing glaring enough to warrant this wagon
  - TSO's defence and belligerence towards the wagon seem genuine and reads town, as the aggressiveness would be unwanted attention for a scum player
  - Titus' "scumslips" are weak, especially in early game we shouldn't be misreading bronze posts for scummy gold - if you follow my metaphor
  - Furthermore Titus has remained present, seems measured and actively posting thoughts. This could be a future asset to town
  - At the very least keeping Titus around for the time being would mean he's got to keep up this good-natured commentary, thus a scum-Titus will slip properly at some stage
  - Thus I'm leaning town on Titus and at the very least don't want to see him lynched

beastcharizard

• - Not a fan of this wagon either, on reread I was leaning town on beast's early posts and weak suspicion being thrown towards him felt much too forced and not worthy of votes
  - KX's tone towards beast set off alarm bells for me, there's much too much confirmation bias and not enough evidence of beast's scumminess
  - Thus I believe beast is not the scum we're looking for and most likely not a scum counter wagon for Titus

So how can the two main wagons be town, you may ask. Well one possibility is that scum are playing it both ways, splitting their votes and coordinating a way of getting one mislynch through while seeking to avoid the suspicious air of stacking a player.

In both cases it feels like there's been very little casework and a lot more comfort voting. I suspect townies are adopting a "thank god I'm not being pushed as a wagon" mentality and not looking at these two players too rigorously. Personally I don't feel either player has a strong enough scum case against them.

I'd prefer a player currently on either of the two wagons to be lynched. My preferences are:

Rail Tracer, NicCage,

TheIrishPope, Bicephalous Bob,

BeastCharizard, T S O,

Yabbaguy,

Titus,

KX

Thoughts?

[pieceofpecanpie]

RailTracer is a null read. I like his post 511 on KX, but I'm not won over by the continual town-y self-referencing, especially in conjunction with his apathetic post 995.

NicCage has had good exchanges between several players. When he's been present he's pushed questions and reads. I have a town read on him.

From my experience TIP seems hard to read. He regularly throws accusations out, but doesn't make plays or push lynches. It's notoriously hard to pin him down on an opinion and he'll change it unpredictably. This in turn makes it extremely hard to push for his lynch, which ironically makes me want to lynch him at some point just to negate a never ending WIFOM. Not the first person I'd pick to vote out of the pool I suggested, but I'm still open to it.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Final note: he's leaning Town on Titus, and still advocates against her lynch, instead of pushing for another one.

Uhhhh wut?

I'm leaning town on Titus and

still

advocate

against

her lynch... Why do you make it sound like this is a strange thing? I'm not trying to lynch town.

Your post 984 checks off a number of things that Titus has done to be scummy. I'm going to request that you link to each and every example of those checks. You think Titus is "our best bet" well then show us the money.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I

am

looking for a lynch, did you get to the end of my #1030?

Answers to your questions...

If you see inconsistencies, why do you vouch for her?

- These inconsistencies don't outweigh my town lean on Titus. Everyone is inconsistent to an extent. That doesn't prove anything.

do you know if he has ever done this as scum?

- Nope, just that I feel it's not likely scum play in this game during Day 1.

What makes you feel it's genuine?

- As above, and my interpretation of the tone. Honestly you should give some insight into how he's lying or faking it if that's how you feel.

Here you assume that scum don't remain present and active?

- No, that's not what I'm doing. However, being active and posting lots generally works more in town's favour than scum, savvy?

Tell me why they're weak again?

- (You tell me why they're strong, you want Titus lynched after all) Your post 984 checks off a number of things that Titus has done to be scummy. I'm going to request that you link to each and every example of those checks. You think Titus is "our best bet" well then show us the money.

[pieceofpecanpie]

@TIP

If you want to talk there's no one stopping you.

On the topic of burden of proof, you have to realise that it's in your interest to prove why Titus is a good lynch for today to people who don't want to vote her.

And if you can't address your point by point scum-Titus checklist in post 984 when it's called into question then the case is hardly compelling.

@BB

So I interpret it as going something like: TIP started calling TSO scummy, TSO calls TIP a moron, Titus calls TIP scummy for calling TSO scummy, TIP calls Titus scummy for defending TSO etc. etc. The word "moron" interchanges between an alignment and a non-alignment indicator several times. I think "misrep" is the wrong word to consider for all this, I just think of it as a noisy 3-way clusterfuck that doesn't shed much light on any player.

I feel a much more interesting series of posts is on Page 21 when the TSO, TIP, Titus 3-way is just getting started. That's where KX comes in with an extremely meaningless post 505 and immediately gets called out - quite correctly - by Rail Tracer. Despite being pressed on TIP by players and making several allusions to TIP feeling scummy¹ he still seems quite coy on the matter and votes Kibble/Beast in post 517. I sense KX is both avoiding voting TIP, yet compelled to show supporting words towards the majority voice of TIP detractors.

My point is that I feel there's more valuable information outside of the direct flow of accusations between TIP-TSO-Titus. KX really stands out with this. What do you think of this?

Also, what do you make of Titus/Beast being the leading wagons? In light of the way you presented those questions to me don't you think the wagons should be TIP/TSO?

@TSO

Your case reads better (or at least is presented better) than TIP's on yourself. Would I be willing to vote TIP based on this? I now have a preference above voting TIP (amend my pool from #1030 to BB, yabba and KX).

Firstly, I don't think siding for either a TIP or Titus/TSO lynch is beneficial for town right now. If all three of you are kept alive I believe it will play out in a useful way the next Day. This is mostly because I don't think there's a clear alignment tell on any of you and I'd rather lynch outside of this pool.

Secondly, I find much more solid evidence in the way KX presented many contradictory statements on TIP and didn't vote him, rather than the way you've had a 3-way tit for tat. The scum slips between the three of you seem exaggerated, but with the unintentional benefit of making others take notice and comment on it. I want to see if scum will pick on either of you three tonight or, if they don't, which one of you three could be part of a scum team.

So I think the best lynch for today is KX.

VOTE: KX

Points of interest, contradictions and avoidance of KX on TIP are below. Note: this could make them a possible scum team, but I think it's more important to see how it shows KX is unwilling to be pinned down on an opinion of a player, TIP or otherwise.

₁

"Another thing I figure I should mention is TIP, a player who, tbh, I quite dislike, had

multiple interesting

, if

worthless

, interactions throughout the early game."

"[...] which makes me hate both of them as

worthless and cluttering

space, but

doesn't help to give reads on either

."

"[...] the TIP-Rail talks, which

make TIP undoubtedly scummy

, help nothing with his play, and basically show the essance of why

TIP is worthless and a bad player

who should feel ashamed."

"

TIP seems like scum

, but that's just his playstyle, and I'd like to see more of him doing things like the TSO push, so much as I hate so say is town lean for now since he actually did something."

"TIP's case is bad, and he should feel bad, but he seems to be trying in his own dumb way,

which is the most town thing I've ever seen from him

, so no, don't lynch [...]"

[pieceofpecanpie]

Can you give something more solid than that, goodmorning?

[pieceofpecanpie]

@Mod

Do you mind putting some prods out?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Not excited by KX's returning post after such a long absence...

you could, you know, give your current reads and explanations for them, that would be cool.

Seconded.

Unfortunately discussion is moving slower than I initially thought, so I may need to look for a more pragmatic vote option.

[pieceofpecanpie]

PPP, what do you think of the TIP-is-a-moron situation?

More precisely: do you think 595 is a scum slip? Do you think TSO believes he called TIP a moron before TIP called TSO scum? Do you think 526 is a misrep? Do you think 539 is a misrep to 491?

@BB

So I interpret it as going something like: TIP started calling TSO scummy, TSO calls TIP a moron, Titus calls TIP scummy for calling TSO scummy, TIP calls Titus scummy for defending TSO etc. etc. The word "moron" interchanges between an alignment and a non-alignment indicator several times. I think "misrep" is the wrong word to consider for all this, I just think of it as a noisy 3-way clusterfuck that doesn't shed much light on any player.

You didn't answer most of my questions. Could you please quote the posts I referred to and explain why you don't think they're misreps/scum slips? If you don't think Titus is scum, why aren't you trying to convince me? Also, what do you think of 491 and 525?

I

did

answer your questions, every point is addressed. What exactly did you find unsatisfactory about my answers?

I wrote a largish section direction at you, with questions redirected at yourself. Have you taken the whole thing into account? When are you going to answer me?

@BB So I interpret it as going something like: TIP started calling TSO scummy, TSO calls TIP a moron, Titus calls TIP scummy for calling TSO scummy, TIP calls Titus scummy for defending TSO etc. etc. The word "moron" interchanges between an alignment and a non-alignment indicator several times. I think "misrep" is the wrong word to consider for all this, I just think of it as a noisy 3-way clusterfuck that doesn't shed much light on any player.

I feel a much more interesting series of posts is on Page 21 when the TSO, TIP, Titus 3-way is just getting started. That's where KX comes in with an extremely meaningless post 505 and immediately gets called out - quite correctly - by Rail Tracer. Despite being pressed on TIP by players and making several allusions to TIP feeling scummy1 he still seems quite coy on the matter and votes Kibble/Beast in post 517. I sense KX is both avoiding voting TIP, yet compelled to show supporting words towards the majority voice of TIP detractors.

My point is that I feel there's more valuable information outside of the direct flow of accusations between TIP-TSO-Titus. KX really stands out with this. What do you think of this?

Also, what do you make of Titus/Beast being the leading wagons? In light of the way you presented those questions to me don't you think the wagons should be TIP/TSO?

[pieceofpecanpie]

I wrote a largish section direction at you, with questions redirected at yourself. Have you taken the whole thing into account? When are you going to answer me?

Let's do one question at the time.

Do you think 595 is a scum slip? If you don't, why not?

KX is probably town. Your case was pretty bad. I also don't really mind that the big wagons are on two of my scum reads. Why would I want TIP to be one of them?

Sigh. I really am trying to hold back on a scathing response, but it's hard.

No, I don't think it was a scum slip. I don't see it as a big deal that the word "moron" was redefined as "scum" in that one post. If you do, then why don't you find KX scummier, since he has essentially done the exact same thing

several

times and made greater contradictions?

This was already all covered in my initially reply.

Also, all your questions were based around the TIP/TSO dialogue, like it's a battle between those two for today. Well, it isn't. Are you trying to look active by discussing things incidental to the people getting lynched? What are your thoughts on Titus? What are you thoughts on beastcharizard? Is your scum team TSO, Titus and beastcharizard?

[pieceofpecanpie]

For a few questions, can you explain what exactly your reads on Beast, Bob, and Rail are and why? For the life of me I can't figure them out.

It goes without saying that you can't figure out my reads on Bob and Rail. I haven't made them clear yet.

But why did you ask about Beast?

Since your post asserts that you've tried to figure them out then you certainly read my post 1030. I can only conclude that you've thrown a filler question at me, where the names are of little consequence.

Unless you can explain why you chose those three names in particular (since it also suggests that you have figured out my reads on everyone else) and how Beast made it in there, then I believe that's more scum points heading your way.

Also, explain more on your read on me please, it seems to be based around TIP from what I can tell, and I feel I've explained that now, so.

It's based around your contradictory use of language, your words on TIP is just the best example of this. Basically I believe you are lying through your teeth.

pedit: OMGUS vote at this stage of the Day?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Ai, I hope the time-consuming work bug has bitten other people as well because this lack of active discussion is ominous.

@BB

Currently I'm finding our discussion disheartening. What I've seen is questions from you, which I faithfully answered and then elaborated upon (Re: #1050:

"I feel a much more interesting series of posts [...]

"), only to have you dismissively palm off my elaboration onto KX as "pretty bad" and go right back to asking shitty little questions about something I've now made abundantly clear isn't on my radar. That's a backwards step and since you (deliberately?) avoided responding the part on KX in my post 1078, I don't see much more to be had out of this discourse for the time being.

I'll have more of a bone to pick with you later.

@everyone else

I hope you have all noticed the way KX has been reacting. He's reappeared after being absent for a few days with a lot of defensiveness, single-mindedly interested in making sure he looks good and clears his name. As a result he's shown incredibly little interest in the current wagons and has even thrown a bizarre reactionary vote onto me. I hope I'm not the only one who wants to give KX a good bit of attention tomorrow.

Unfortunately for now it's not a practical vote.

UNVOTE: KX

Vote and elaboration is coming, but I'll pick this up a bit later, out of time for now.

[pieceofpecanpie]

VOTE: Titus

This'll have to do. Out of Titus/beast my preference is here.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I'm not going to arm myself tonight. If I die, lynch KX.

Titus should throw out scum suspects if she's town, otherwise good riddance.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Purple monkey dishwasher.

Rooster-juggling Thunder Elbow. ~V

[pieceofpecanpie]

How dare you outguess my WIFOM about arming myself Night 1. I typed out a PM for Varsoon and

didn't

send it.

Also, my scumreads in dead thread are pretty lol...

For the record my guess is KX, Beast and Yabba. And TIP better not be scum, curse him.

Without placing too many bets, I also like Bob for scum. He would replace Beast in my scum team, since KX and Bob seem awkwardly disinterested in each other. Also, TIP is capable of replacing Yabba in either team and it'd still work.

KX was such an easy scum read, I have no idea why no one else saw it. You'll have to work on that KX. Bob was incredibly obvious scum as well, so obvious that I second guessed myself and went for wagon theory instead.

TIP was wildcard scum, but I would've supported a lynch on him without question.

What really sucks about coming into a game and reading the whole scum team more or less straight off the bat is...

Varsoon, I find my town game lacking, I'd like to have the scum team PM'd to me if possible so I can try to see why I suck at picking them out from townies.

Can't wait to see how wrong I am and to try and figure out how to improve...

...I wanted to find flaws in my town game and improve on it. I don't know what to take away from this one, since I can honestly say that it was only lack of confidence that didn't see me just throwing 3 names (which would've been KX, Bob and TIP I swear) out there. Those were my initial 3. That I died straight away means I can't critique my game beyond the start, and it's kind of hard to find fault in my scum reads being the actual scum.

So next game will leave me nice and confused, since I think my town game is crap, but perhaps I should put more faith in my reading ability at the very least.

Also, did any townie actually want to play? I swear if you want to find scum and lynch them you may actually have to be proactive. Post more for a start. Then try for suspicion, pressure, tunneling and, in this game, PGO arming strategies with all living players. Couldn't really be bothered following the game too closely after I died when it was basically 3 scum just shootin' the shit with their semi-muddled bullshit page after page. Town let them get away with this so easily.

Thanks for modding Varsoon. Liked the flavour. Great job.