Open 537 - Polygamist: Game over, town win.

[Matias]

Uh, what information do you want? There is nothing wrong with claiming lover pairings.

[Matias]

And how does early claiming lover pairs help scum?

We're all going to figure out who everyone's lovers are. Why not get that out of the way?

[Matias]

FTR, already liking neither of you.

[Matias]

I'm lovers with JKLM.

Oh no, look out, scums gonna win!!!

[Matias]

Uh, what information do you want? There is nothing wrong with claiming lover pairings.

Well, if two scumreads turn out to be a "lover pair", then they are probably scum.

I'm lovers with JKLM.

Oh no, look out, scums gonna win!!!

It's better to wait. I wasn't saying Claim now = scum victory.

One scummy player in a lover pair could also mean scum. Its easier for scum to manipulate wagons when there's less information, so its completely reasonable that town would want to out their partners. I certainly prefer more information.

Part two was directed towards Lark.

[Matias]

@Matias: so I'm assuming there's seriously no downside to claiming lovers now?
~Bo

Yep. Leaving it ambiguous is a double edged sword.

[Matias]

If town knows who the pairs are, its easier for them to read people due to the play of their partner. Thats the nature of this setup.

Lark, what's your read on me?

[Matias]

@Baldie: Define "turn out" to be a lover pair" because I'm pretty sure I can't follow your logic.

Or there is none, and you're just talking out of your butt.

~Bo

He's making sense. If you find two people scummy and you find out they are lovers, that should doubly mean that they are scum according to his logic.

That theory has holes, though.

[Matias]

MOD:

Vote count, please.

[Matias]

I'm away for thanksgiving like activities, but I'm also watching this Lark/baldeagle back and forth like a hawk, if anyone's been wondering where I've been.

I've had a few days of retrospection and something's off about this.

[Matias]

Wanna talk about it?

Yeah.

1. That wagon on Lark grew super fast for my liking.
2. I wasn't expecting baldeagle and Lark 1v1ing like this.
3. Their back and forth sounds like convoluted frustration.

I've concluded at the very least, baldeagle and Lark cannot be scum together because of lack of experience, and therefore their teams cannot be. Whether one of them is scum is up for debate still.

I'll need some time to analyze other people.

[Matias]

What do you mean when you say convoluted frustration?

It's just a term I attribute to people who go out of their way to defend themselves and counter attack specific points in the opposition's argument. It hasn't really been fleshed out a lot in this game between those two, but their attacks on each other are hardly hard-hitting and just seem to serve a purpose of mudslinging and discreditation.

In my experience, most of the time this happens, it's between two townies or one scum and one townie. It's rarely done between scum unless they know what they're doing. If you talk a lot without having great content, that's a perfect formula for getting yourself lynched.

On page 1, I had actually thought, because of the way they started out their arguments, that Lark and baldeagle would have at least defended each other, but instead they turned on each other and started trying to discredit arguments. This all started with baldeagle's vote on Lark.

This is just the general vibe I get from those two. I'm not making any definite statements, but something seems off with the wagon on Lark. I just have to pinpoint what it is.

[Matias]

1. Yet, you assumed that there was night, because you were all excited about scum making nightkills.

2. Nice to know that you are scumreading almost all of your attackers.

3. This doesn't even make sense.

4. Not really because they explained it here why it's better to massclaim right away.

1. This is completely false. I don't know where you're getting this from but it certainly isn't from my posts.

2. Skull and Desp only attacked me after I voted Desp, and Neon is not attacking me. If you are implying that I am only attacking them because they attacked me first that is not true.

3. What doesn't make sense? I'm saying that their actions are those of an anti-town group, that they have a good chance of being scum.

4. Only after the fact.

I'm still waiting for your reply to this:

What was the basis for the statement you made about me in post 29?

Like, all of this is just noise to me. I've taken note of the arguments and points, but this just seems like they're frustrated with each other moreso than anything else. Happens because of clashing playstyles (or if someone gets offended that someone would target THEM for an argument, well they never!)

Granted though, I haven't been paying too close of attention to the thread, which is why I need a bit of time before I can make some sort of definitive statement.

[Matias]

Hm. Wondered why in the hell Blueberry is voting me, and then realizing that he has absolutely no content.

Neonizer and Blueberry...

[Matias]

This type of setup is hard. I have to analyze double the amount of people.

Let me recap here...

Skullduggery and Desperado:

(Bojo/RC) - Desperado calls Bojo town. Doesn't mention RC. Skull doesn't mention either. Bojo is a little more strict in his townread of Desperado and started off feeling uneasy about Skull. RedCoyote says that Desp/Skull's early game play makes them town.

(baldeagle/Sanhora) - baldeagle attacks Lark for Lark's attack on Desperado. Desp calls eagle town. Skull's read on eagle seems a bit schizophrenic.

By the way, I didn't respond to this:

How likely do you think it is that Lark/Baldeagle is a Town/Town argument? Is it likely enough to be worth further consideration? If so, what other pairings are you looking at?

I'm about to address this, but at this point, very likely.

Skull's kind of grilling Sanhora really hard. So I think at this point the thing that makes me wonder the most about Desperado and Skull is their disagreement on how to view eagle/Sanhora's pairing, but that could easily come from town motivation.

(Neonizer (blueberry doesn't apply since he's a nonfactor)) - Desperado attacks Neon. Skull questions his line of logic. Reactions are consistent.

(Lark and phok) - Desperado has a full fledged attack on Lark and calls the scumteam Neonizer/Lark (and their partners). Neither mention phok but that might be a non-issue.

More to come. I'd rather split these into separate posts.

[Matias]

Bojo and RedCoyote:

(eagle/Sanhora) - Bojo says that Lark and eagle aren't likely to be scum together, votes eagle and then says more about Lark, but DOES mention that his vote is a placeholder. Grills Sanhora on hypocrisy but doesn't follow through on it. RC asks Sanhora a question and doesn't follow through on it, RC agrees with eagle on Lark and then throws a vote onto him.

(Neonizer) - Biggest deal here: Bojo says that Lark and Neon cannot be scum together and says something about Neon assuming information. Never mentions him other than that. RC never mentions Neon. Neon mentions RC briefly twice, but NEVER bojo.

(Lark/phok) - Bojo attacks both Lark and phok, RC does the same with an agreement with eagle. Lark says that Bojo's attack on Lark isn't that scummy (which is really town, IMO). Says he isn't sure about RC.

[Matias]

eagle and Sanhora:

(Neon) - eagle thinks Neon and Lark are buddies and Neon would bus Lark. Neon has an odd vote on Lark about an assumption that lovers aren't confirmed to each other; I saw no such thing myself.

(Lark/Phok) - eagle and Lark have a lengthy one on one and I've said before about how I've felt about this.


Neonizer:

(Lark/phok) - Lark is less sure of a scum read on Neonizer. That's about it.

Honestly, based on reactions, interactions and activity, I'm actually going to put my money on a Bojo/RC and Neonizer/Blueberry scumteam for a few reasons.

-Total lack of interaction with each other
-Neonizer agreeing with RedCoyote while having NOTHING to say about Bojo, who's been a far bigger force than RC has this game
-Eagerness on both sides to jump on the Lark wagon, which I'm not happy with any longer.
-Speaking of Lark, the 1v1 between Lark and eagle make me believe that both are town or only one is scum, and based on THEIR reactions, I don't think that either are scum.
-Blueberry not saying or doing anything. I would think at least at this point, you'd have SOMETHING to say. Even phok, who I had an eye on for a while when doing this recap, had something to say, albeit super short and deflective.

Vote: Neonizer

I'm comfortable with this and I'm willing to listen to anyone BUT Blueberry, Bojo and RedCoyote on their thoughts about my concerns.

Preview edit: I was coming to a conclusion. Read this last post before anything else.

Also, it was never a suspicion, just an oddity. I don't think anyone else in this game has had differentiating opinions on a person with their lover on a person yet.

For what it's worth, I also find all three pairs of you guys (eagle/Sanhora, You/Skull and Lark/phok) town by general demeanor and from what I believe to be legit scumhunting.

What I posted was a lot of information to digest, so take some time to read it.

[Matias]

EBWOP:

Read this last post before anything else.

Should be:

Read this last post before you come to a conclusion about anything.

It was bad wording.

[Matias]

Also, I didn't answer your question about what I'm doing. I wanted to look at everyone's interactions with each other from the start of the game until now, especially since there can be very valuable information in how people interact with each other before the game gets to full steam. All of the above notes were general impressions that I received about a certain interaction.

[Matias]

I feel more confident on my read on Neonizer than I do on Bojo, despite the fact that I feel they are a team.

[Matias]

I think he was just trying to address that towards me.

[Matias]

Also, the wild card for most of us is Neonizer, despite the fact that some people think Lark is scum, some people think Bojo is scum, or eagle, or whatever. I'm definitely on board with letting Bojo go for now and just not listening to him when it comes to his view on Neonizer.

Influence has a BIG part in this setup due to the lynch-one-lynch-all-mafia mechanic. White Flag Mafia in Team Mafia 2012 really blew my mind when it came to mith's vote on his partner late in the game; I'm really skeptic of after-theory vote counts, because it's easy to bus when prompted (and hard to do so before-the-fact).

[Matias]

What did you think about my point that Bo wouldn't have used the words he did if he really thought I was scum as he claimed he did?

Please point out what post you're talking about, my mind is a bit mushy from the analysis of this game.

[Matias]

I see your point. I will keep that in mind, but on a personal note, still feel better with Neonizer as the wild card.

[Matias]

Holy shit you two are town.

[Matias]

Like everything BUT modconfirmed after that exchange.

[Matias]

Skull, I will answer you when I'm home. Out at work.

[Matias]

I'm going to recheck your interaction with Neon. I had a lot of information to digest.

Also, I'm willing to go through with the neon lynch and see who jumps off. How about you? He is definitely the wild card.

[Matias]

I had meant that Neon didn't mention Bojo at all and instead directed confirmation of information to you, which I don't like.

On my phone, so if I mentioned that you never talked to him, I was mistaken.

[Matias]

Mod: vote count please.

[Matias]

Someones bussing. I'm so extremely sure of it.

[Matias]

Someones bussing. I'm so extremely sure of it.

Yeah, considering every person of every pair is voting for him.

If Neonizer flips town, I'm looking at Lark/phok and Bojo/RC.

Sanhora, I hope you are townreading Skull and Desp.

I mean this in the context of town vs. scum Neonizer.

[Matias]

You know what, we went quite a few hours with a whole lot of nothing from anyone. JKLM, go ahead and hammer.

[Matias]

Word. Good game. This setup is easy for scum to get cornered in, though its extremely immersive teamworkwise.