Open 529 -- Picking Simplicity -- Game Over

[Rainbowdash]

Hmmph



Wake is far from a bad vote here due to the last page, but it easily could be town thinking they are smart doing very much so the opposite. May need more from him but he may be an interestingly enough wagon due to the quick "hammering here would be massively anti-town" to "intent to hammer" even if it is for 'reactionary' purposes (i.e. im going to do something scummy). By his own logic we should lynch him for that move.

Interestingly enough im probably going to come in with a few less than popular reads, namely that elle is scum. Boro is also an awesome scum pick here. Only wagon that's really happened which has a good chance of being on scum was the aptil one.

Skull im thinking is just town by the fact that my town reads are not on the wagon. At all. As in zero of my six town reads are voting him (okay maybe HGH if im feeling generous on town reads). That's impressive for wagon breakdowns.

Vote elle

Will break it down more over the next day or so. This one is pretty clear cut though, the push on Skull is all out of place when you add it up and mostly comes from "because I want it to be scummy" statements made and a few that are attacking null if not even town tells from them.

[Rainbowdash]

Saying zero out of my six town reads doesn't give us insight to anything since you aren't naming names.

Should be

somewhat

obvious given how many players are in the game... but Skelda, Anti, ER, BS, Titus and Skull are all varying degrees of town read here. I wouldn't have much of an issue with anypony on the Skull wagon dying here.

Can you explain why HGH is somewhat leaning a town read when you are in a giving mood?

His posts read like lost town more than lost scum. Im not saying he is town I would really give credence to his reads or anything, but I get more of the overwhelmed town than scum playing up the newbie card feel there. Especially some of his posts where he basically says "I know this isn't the best thing I could do but its the best I have right now". That feels far more like town than scum.

Also I'm not really seeing Elle as scum though.

They are. But for now its late and I work early. The case on Skull though is just overblown and buzz words trying to force tells where they don't belong.

[Rainbowdash]

Anyways.

Elle is scum because of how she approaches Skull over the whole SK thing (which in reality should be a very heavy Skull-town thing) as when you are scum in multiball you ARE hunting scum like town is but you are NOT hunting quite the same. I have caught scum in a multiball who suddenly called out a specific faction when they previously had used sweeping "scum" labels. It does happen. The comment may have been a joke but the reaction to the joke is more likely coming from town than scum as those type of tells are more likely to be paid attention to as town.

The fact that elle tries to turn around some of this onto Skull is absurd town at best. Even more interesting (and making me think elle is specifically mafia here) she calls out Skull as the SK for that. Because "he is concerned about the SK slot". Which of course is false, he actually implied elle was mafia and not SK and she just freaked out over it and basically copied the exact same reason (once removed) to call him scum in return.

This is where elle becomes “needs to die” scum though

I wanted to found out your reasoning for asking because it seemed as if you were either:

A) concerned we were legitimately SK hunting because you thought it was scum motivated
B) concerned we were legitimately SK hunting because you're the SK
C) were not concerned that we were actually SK hunting at all because you're mafia but wanted to paint it as scummy

One makes you town. One makes you SK. One makes you mafia.

This is playing odds that don’t actually exist. I saw scum do this VERY VERY recently in a game where they tried to force action results such as all slots ignored information and acted randomly. Anypony should realize that this quote means NOTHING in context because the ABC applies to all players. Whats to stop me from using it as
Elle either is

A) Town who is OMGUSing
B) Mafia who realizes they have messed up
C) SK who is trying to defend an attack
So using that elle has a 2/3 chance of being scum and needs to die.

Yeah no.

That’s just bad logic crowbarred into a case to make it look good.

Next up though moves elle cleanly out of the town who is just doesn’t understand math though

'This is town' is definite. It is not 'This looks town' or 'I think this may be town'.

This is exactly why I find your town read of them to be fabricated, not only because I can't see at all what is town about the two things that you quote but because it looks like a scum throwing out bogus town reads just to look town.

Yeah im going to point that one out as massively scummy. It was a gut read, when you pressed him on why he had it he turned it around as a “why is it scummy” which you completely balked at and demanded you answer the question. Timing is kinda odd though. You just wait around on it though, and seem to pull it up far later as scummy than it actually makes sense to. Also again, your response of “oh okay gut” feels out of place when you call him scummy for not saying it immediately. “gut” is not the most descriptive thing ever, for somepony who “wanted to know the reasonings behind the read” that usually isn’t enough.

But that quote… I mean “You are scum for saying he is town definite”. Well wow. Im not even sure I have a good picture for a mix of deadpan “really?” and laughing. I will call players town early in the game CONSTANTLY. I mean, would it have been okay if he said “well they are 20% more likely to be town than the average player”? You ignore just about every other "yeah that's town" type post. You even just made one regarding Skelda saying "That's a town post". How is that remotely different from why you are attacking Skull? Its not.

No. Its again a delayed reaction that if you thought was scummy would have been brought up long ago. If you are calling it fabricated you call him on it WHEN IT HAPPENS and not ten pages down the road once he starts attacking you. And again, it’s a laughably bad reason that is grasping at straws.

So basically, elle is calling Skull scum for
1) Calling runawey town early on gut
2) Saying she was scum for SK hunting
That’s not a case. That’s a null tell and a town tell.

Elle has created a case that doesn’t match up to the timing of events in the thread and responded to the attack from Skull by using the exact same logic to call him scum in return. At the same time she is ignoring most other happenings in the game and really isn’t taking many other stances when she is eventually pushed into giving reads by others. We have leaning town Wake, maybe scum HGH, ignored aptil, Elle is scum here, its quite simple.

[Rainbowdash]

First, when asked to explain a townread. There really isn't anything too wrong with a response of "why do you disagree with it" which is what he started with.

You are balking because your point of the attack was "called it a definite read" moreso than anything else. If your issue is his word useage its out of place to only attack him for that after he answered that it was a gut read because it doesn't matter when that is introduced, its a point that cant change. It feels like an afterthought tacked onto a case instead of something you actually saw at the time it happened. There is NOTHING WRONG with calling a slot town early. If you think that's a scumtell you basically are going to just attack the same type of player regardless of their alignment in every game. Its even weird that you are attacking "This is town" as "X is 100% without a doubt town". Again is he supposed to say "this makes him a slightly better town pick than the rest of the game"? Or should he just assume "This is town" means "I have a town read on this slot from these posts, not a 100% one but one that is worth mentioning for information as a whole".

The ENTIRE ARGUEMNET for Skull being scum is "he called a slot town on page 3, and I don't agree with him having that read". That's it. Horrible argument.

You are blowing it way out of proportion. Besides, you call him "def scum" on about page 8. So... "This is town" is bad on page 3 but "Def Scum" is acceptable in early game?

Also if you are just doing what you said about reads, I take it you agree with every one of my reads because you haven't asked me to state why they are town? Again you are basically basing reads on "what I get". What if I don't understand why you think Skelda was town, shouldn't you be scum because I am not sure of your reasons and you just said "that's town" with the same emphasis that Skull did

I do like that you try to discredit me by saying "could be scum with Skull" instead of actually trying to show why Skull is scum. Which he isn't. Even removing the fact that most of his wagon is my scumreads he is town. You actually did manage to ignore the parts of me calling you scum that showed how regardless he is town, like the approach to the SK thing. Which is really really town. Is odd that you basically rule out that he is the SK with this attack though, if he is the SK there are no associative tells. You actually even called him town or SK early, which on its own merits is really freaking weird.

Is there anything that's not "called Ranawey town" in this case though? I don't think there is but just want to be sure there isn't a point that isn't easily countered im missing or something.

[Rainbowdash]

@elle - Yes or no, there is nothing apart from the fact that Skull said "This is town" that you think he is scum for.

Also you entire missed the fact that you originally say "the SK comment came from town or SK" intentionally eliminating mafia. Then when I come in and attack you suddenly you start talking about interactions and how I should not be paid attention to because if he is scum you think I might be.

Elle is still scum here. Skull is really obviously town. Like to the point where I wont let him get lynched so you might just want to save time and move on. Im one of the best ones on the site about not letting my town reads get lynched.

@All skull voters - Summarize your case on him. Elle is basically down to nothing so lets see if anypony else is attacking him for something that's a town or null tell.

[Rainbowdash]

@elle - Summarize why you are calling Skull scum. If you have it all clearly laid out it shouldn't be an issue to just copy it over. Your posts are either far less clear than you think or your case is missing though because im not sure what you are calling him scum for.

[Rainbowdash]

Still waiting for reasoning as to why everypony who is voting Skull is. Just something very nice and concise because I see no valid reasons.

We are looking at something like:

Scum:
elle
Boro
aptil
RM
Aero
DJ

Town:
Anti
ER
BS
Skelda
Wake
HGH
Titus
Skull

The rest need to post more

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbowdash, why do you have a townread on these guys except for the fact that

they're posting decently

?

You kinda said it right there. They are posting decently.

Are you saying Titus is scum though because he is faking a towntell? Or is there more that im missing.

[Rainbowdash]

rainbowdash

jmo is the 2nd most active poster in the game (by post count). He is absent from your list. Read?

Im pretty sure there are a few missing from my list. They are just the ones I couldn't remember being in the game when I was making that post (basically null reads). Given that he is one of the most active players (post wise) that's fairly concerning as it means his content is low, but still don't have much of a read on him.

[Rainbowdash]

Loranthaceae, Antihero, Rainbowdash, would you post your reads on me, please?

Just look up

[Rainbowdash]

I don't think you think before you post, but I think as scum you would have realized that the "I am VT" claim is basically a "Please investigate me tonight" sign in flashing neon if it doesn't get you killed in the here and now. It sorta backed up my "hyper/untrustworthy" read I had been picking up.

That and your Aero post is actually fairly solid.

[Rainbowdash]

Wake - Okay see, you either are not thinking this through enough or are missing it. Maybe the right word is impatient and that makes you look like you aren't thinking.

In an open setup, scum know what PRs they are looking for and are more likely to react strongly to VT tells, let alone VT claims. Take out the threats and move on. Cop also looks for these. My first reaction when I saw the VT claim was "boy that's a good investigation target" because that means im not hitting the doctor (the one role cop doesn't want to hit) and scum probably are not going to kill him (as VT is not a threat to scum). I don't think mafia makes this claim because its drawing the cop to them. SK I can see making it, but negligibility and such.

Basically I think as scum you would have realized that and not claimed VT. Its not like pulling a bluff and claiming VT in some setups hoping you don't get targeted. This claim means that you automatically become the correct investigation target, so if town plays correctly you are dead as scum. Major major difference.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah funny part is it might be arguable that the correct D1 move is to have the cop claim and to no lynch followed by doc shadowing them. Would have to check how that really works though. I have drawn cop in this setup a long long time ago and was debating an out the gate D2 claim, but doc ate N1 kill so never did that.

[Rainbowdash]

Wow, those Wake votes are bad.

Oh yeah.

Again, he isn't the sharpest seeming pony through his play, but the VT claim is beyond suicide for scum there. If he is any scum it draws the other to him, it draws the cop to him... its going to get him killed as scum if he is scum.

I think some stuff needs to be said here though that transcend the game though just to make it manageable.

@Wake - Stop it. You are not acting in a way that is really conducive to play. I actually completely agree with what aptil said about your play in "basically trollish". Its not outright trolling, but you are posting so much and all over the place that you make the game hard to read. I could honestly care less if it helps you or not, becase when it hurts everypony else and makes it hard for us to play, you are doing massive damage to the town. Period. Consolidate your posts and think before you do things. The way you are playing will make us ignore you, im almost to that stage because im ontent with a town read on you and I don't trust your ability to read others. Image is everything, and you are dragging yours through the mud.

@BP - Stop it. We are not policy lynching this far into the game. If he was a good scum pick I would be all over the utility lynch, but he isn't.

elle is still scum and should be lynched at the first possible chance, but there are other scum

vote BP

I would also be more than willing to lynch aptil (doing nothing, early false dilemma, interaction with Wake seems off) but BP is a bit more of a good lynch

First his vote on Skull is bad. Skull says something that is 100% true, BP calls it a scumtell by trying to over analyise it and misrep what he is saying. Lot like elle did but far worse. Then he just kinda drifts along saying Skull was scum all along (with no reason given except the afformentioned one this seems like just trying to justify not moving a vote for the sake of not moving a vote)

The catchup post is just very unusual. Basically attacks the DJ wagon because they might be town (while realistically any wagon probably has scum on it) but then glazes over the ones that aren't on the wagon and despite specifically mentioning utri as having an odd vote, passes up any further push there because he agrees with him about Skull, who BP isn't sure of a read on.

Elle is still scum (see attack on Skull, see swapping back and forth calling Skull mafia/SK when each supports her push) but BP and aptil are also good votes. As may be RM, she is a LOT more lurky as scum.

[Rainbowdash]

You are making the game more difficult for the rest of us and unenjoyable and that is anti-town. When over the last few pages a third of the game has called you a troll or wanted to policy lynch you then you need to reevaluate what you are doing. Or we could all come to the conclusion that you are town and basically ignore you until you die. That would work too as far as I am concerned.

[Rainbowdash]

There are right ways and wrong ways to promote activity. When you have double the posts of every other player, that is the wrong way because its going to make the game seem cluttered. We all have different amounts of time. I work and my office has MS blocked so I cant do anything until late afternoon on weekdays. Some cant post weekends.

You are being too over the top, too vocal, and not really even posting in a way that really encourages back and forth conversations. It doesn't matter if you realize it or not, but the way you are playing actually damages the ability of the rest of us to play because you are trying to force the game along at a pace it cant sustain. We are not being lazy, there is a lot of content and most of it from where I am is not coming from you. I see elle, Skull, Skelda, Titus, ER and Anti all having produced more content than you because they do it in a way that is easy to understand because its not listening to somepony just saying what they happen to be thinking at the time.

Its not about being active, its about producing content and moving the game along. There are many examples of players who will post a couple times a day that are infinitely more valueable than players that just post what is seen as spam.

I will say it again, you appear to just be spamming and you are not going to be listened to. Either scale it back or get used to players not

WANTING

to listen to you. A game being busy is one of the worst things that can happen to a game as most of the game will be unable to understand what is going on.

[Rainbowdash]

Not saying you haven't provided content. I am saying there are many who have, or due to your style appear to have, provided more content than you. You keep jumping around so much I really have no idea where you stand on most and that's an issue. Calling yourself a threat is kinda funny though, being honest if I had to make a list of who I would see as a threat if I was scum you are easily below the halfway point. You have already damaged your reputation in the game almost to the point where anything you say can be met with "its Wake" unless you come up with something brilliant.

Just start being concise and realize that even though you apparently have 24/7 access that's a rarity. Posting as much as you are when the rest of the game cant is very damaging to the game.

[Rainbowdash]

The role of a VT is to stir things up to catch Scum.

This is where you are wrong and if you truly believe this will never be a strong or really that popular of a player. Town role is to catch scum. Town role is not to cause chaos stirring things up because that hurts other town.

So im basically done reading anything from Wake. He is town, we should ignore him for the rest of the game if he wont be productive, apparently doesnt get that we are mostly laughing at him, lets move on.

[Rainbowdash]

You're not that productive at all, RD, because you're barely seeking reactions.

Because that's not how I scumhunt. There are players who are very impulsive (you) and there are players that are methodical (me). The problem is impulsive players tend to get in the way of methodical players. When the impulsive player is getting in the way of not just me (again you have quite a few of us telling you to stop) that's when im going to make moves to shut the impulsive player down before it starts hurting my chances of winning.

I don't mind working with players I have a town read on. When I don't trust the player to be right though, or I don't trust the player to do the right thing, im not going to work well and just try and make sure you don't hurt me. You playing like you are is damaging to my ability to play well, so again, either calm down and clearly make points or we are done here. "reactions" are not how I get reads, those type of things work directly against my ability to gain reads. It would be like putting you in a game where you can only post once every 24 hours.

Also if you are going to call me arrogant, lets not forget your "listen to me or I will lynch you" post from a page or so ago.

Will ask you again to stop spamming the game. If not, im done reading any of your posts unless another player says you are making a good point. You just said you want to work well with others, here is your chance to. I cant (time wise) work with you the way you want me to, I have a job. You can work with the way the rest of the game wants you to work. Your choice, either keep playing like you are and you will lose almost all control you have over the game, or work with the rest of us.

@Manera - Yes he is probably one of the worst players in this game, but he is probably town for the VT claim. Basically he claimed VT in a setup where the correct move for the cop is to investigate the VT claim. So the only way he really is going to be scum here is if he is the SK, which I don't think he is. If we ever were in a situation where we had a forced win, yes he dies first just for sanity of it all, but the claim essentially means that if he is scum he dies very soon. I don't think he is

THAT

bad at this game to essentially set himself up to be investigated and put himself in a situation where even if he is SK scum probably figure it out fairly early.

[Rainbowdash]

For those saying we should lynch Wake on policy:



Just stop reading his posts. He is town. That's all you need to know here. He either will start trying to work with literally everypony else, he will get upset enough to leave, or we will just not have to deal with him. He has no clue how to play the game in a social setting where he isn't the center of attention, but that doesn't mean he is scum. We treat him as town, we are going to force scum to get rid of him eventually.

Just ignore him until he shapes up or ships out. Seriously.

Side note BS just crashed and burned out of my town read column in a single post.

[Rainbowdash]

You do realize im the one who is actively trying to stop the policy lynch of you right?



ponies didn't do that unfortunately. Don't have a picture/clip for everything, just almost everything

[Rainbowdash]

Im trying to stop your lynch the only way I can really come up with when its a policy lynch attack. If you don't like it I don't really care that much. I think you are town and will stop your lynch however I can, even if it means posting like I have been in a defense of why you shouldn't be lynched.

That loyalty sig isn't for show. I will not allow a player I think is town to be lynched, even if I have to take extreme steps to get there first. Stop giving them fodder and this wouldn't even be an issue.

[Rainbowdash]

Well you did basically threaten to policy lynch anypony who didn't immediately respond to you about things...

If you give me things to trust, I might since im apparently going to need to keep reading what you are saying to make sure you don't die. Like actually voting may help. BP, elle, aero.... one of those three joining on would be good. Other maybe depending on things, but if you want to work together to kill one of them im more than happy to. Im just getting annoyed when I have to spend as much time defending as attacking, I play defense very aggressively because that's my strong point so I will always throw my weight there.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, what do you honestly think of those involved in scuffling with me?

Skelda is still town. So is Skull.

JS is kinda scummy but he really isn't posting enough to form a good read. That and he is the more of a "do this and it stops" voice on the policy wagon. Townish actually as I write this out more.

Manera (until I looked at OP thought he replaced HGH) isn't the worst lynch ever (the reaction to aptil is horrible, TNE wasn't too bad but that just really sets off an alarm), but I would rather lynch stronger scum reads who look like scum with them (elle and Aero)

I woud actually love to get a dead elle here. She basically twists Skulls words into a case and calls him scum for calling somepony town on a gut read early. Not to mention she actually jumps back and forth with calling him mafia and SK depending on what makes her case look better at the moment. We are looking for scum. If you have a good reason to believe a certain type then that's cool, if you don't its scummy to try and force it to a type to increase strength of a case.

I would say im at

Top tier scum: elle, BP, Aero
Low tier scum: RM, Manera, DJ, BS, aptil

I obviously want a top lynch. I would be willing to hard push any of those three right now.

[Rainbowdash]

@BP - Why did you vote Skull? You seem to vote him for calling elle on what he sees to be a slip but then you say "he was scummy all along" later on without ever really giving a reason as to why he was even scummy to start. Actually you call him scum for something entirely not related to what you quoted (you say he was scum for saying he is hunting anti-town... so what me saying "im town" is scummy too?) but there is never a reason there yet you posture as if there actually was one. Also your "policy lynch" was 475 where you said you are tempted to vote Wake for "being annoying"

@Wake - BP or elle lynch are by far the best two. Elle every time I read her just seems more and more like scum as town reads come together. The logic leap OMGUS from the attack by Skull mixed with calling him scum for having a town read. If anything that a playstyle tell from Skull instead of an alignment tell.

[Rainbowdash]

@BP - Why did you vote Skull? You seem to vote him for calling elle on what he sees to be a slip but then you say "he was scummy all along" later on without ever really giving a reason as to why he was even scummy to start. Actually you call him scum for something entirely not related to what you quoted (you say he was scum for saying he is hunting anti-town... so what me saying "im town" is scummy too?) but there is never a reason there yet you posture as if there actually was one. Also your "policy lynch" was 475 where you said you are tempted to vote Wake for "being annoying"

@Wake - BP or elle lynch are by far the best two. Elle every time I read her just seems more and more like scum as town reads come together. The logic leap OMGUS from the attack by Skull mixed with calling him scum for having a town read. If anything that a playstyle tell from Skull instead of an alignment tell.

actually yeah, I suspect anyone who starts shouting about how town they are on the 1st day - no shit, really? I don't see how legitimate townies need to tell everyone this.

and thanks, so you've basically turned what was clearly a joke into a reason to vote for me. how scummy do you think that makes you look?

So the only reason you voted Skull was for saying he was town? You aren't answering my question there really. Instead you are trying to respond to one point and passing that off as good enough.

If your comment was a "joke" too why wasn't it actually ever clarified as such. When your next statement to Wake seems to be holding him in a suspect light im not reading it as a joke.

[Rainbowdash]

scummy all along = scummy at the start, scummy on page 15, scummy now
scummy from the start = looked scummy on p1 (not necessarily continuing to now)

Is that why you continued to vote him for another four or five pages after he was only "scummy from the start"

Also you seriously were voting him purely because he said "I am hunting anti-town" and made a very good observation about what others were doing? That's not a case.

[Rainbowdash]

I would vote Sven or Manera (preferably Manera who is actually up to about my third pick for scum) here in a heartbeat over Loren and Wake.

[Rainbowdash]

@BP - What pointless questions? You say that when you call somepony "scum from the start" it means they weren't scum when you said that, but you don't unvote him for about four pages after you make that comment.

Also yes I still don't think your comment on Wake is joking. Unless around the time that players were getting annoyed with Wake you suddenly decided to make your first joke of the game... not a joke.

Lora wagon is bad in large part because Manera is on it and they are scum for the really awkward way they are treating Wake with a very "im not sure how this is going to go" push on the policy lynch that just reeks of scum who is afraid they are going to take flack for it. Whenever his attacks get countered he just keeps ending up there as well and dismisses the entire push on him from Lora as "OMGUS" without actually responding to it.

The only semi-decent point on Lora is the odd push on Titus for "faking towntells" but when you consider HGH was probably town its a wagon that wont happen. Ive seen enough games to know that even when vocal players push a wagon it actually has to have merit or another vocal (me) will just tear it down. There is no merit here.

[Rainbowdash]

@BP - You do realize that your "I would lynch for being annoying" happened right at the time the rest of the game started discussing policy right? If it was a joke, that's where you say its a joke or at least say that you aren't serious. When the next post is a clear swipe at Wake, sure seems serious. You don't even really give much of a stance on him until much later.

Anyways, you said

scummy from the start = looked scummy on p1 (not necessarily continuing to now)

When you clarified that you used this instead of the "continuing now" version of wording, that would mean that Skull is not scummy when you said he was scummy from the start. You don't unvote him when you say that though.

I would also love an elle or BS lynch at this point. Both are aggressively avoiding this game.

[Rainbowdash]

Last few BP posts have me wondering a bit, it makes it seem like he did something without even realizing it so im not as sure on him being scum. He just reacted badly to me saying he wants a policy lynch without knowing what one is (which is odd to start).

Yeah looking at replacements I probably wouldn't even touch the Loren wagon to have a lynch happen, its at best null-scum players. Same reason im a little wary of SS wagon although he is kinda scummy.

@Titus - Wake lynch is bad. Most of the time a "slip" is overblown. When there is basically a zero change (which if I listed all players Wake would be dead last) for him being mafia, its just a bad lynch given that if the slip is wrong we are lynching town.

Vote Manera

BP can backburner for a while.

Better wagon go.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, regarding mae, I think her lack of giving a fuck, in terms of others feelings and her own perception, puts her donw on most lists. Disregard that and try to look at what she tries to do.

Like how she insisted that we cant use any reads (which were scum) on who she replaced attacking whoever mentioned that, then pushed for a policy lynch, when that wasn't working backed way off and she got attacked backed off, then tried again in a very subtle manner saying "so who would want one" such that she gets far less heat for trying to push it?

Those things which she is trying to do and make her scum?

[Rainbowdash]

Well when you say it like that...

Althou I cant belive she told you not to use reads, and that it would be scummy.

Actually when I went to pull the quote it was BS defending her (which is why I think they are both scum in part)

Alot of what you typed I cant understand. But clearly we are getting two seperate signals from what she does, could it be that she is bossy? I mean everything she does you put in a bad light, or that the feeling I get, and I cnt see how anyone can come to that conclusion objectively.

Its that's she is trying to push the policy lynch in a way that town would not push it. She is afraid of the perception of herself or she would have pushed the policy lynch instead of trying to see what type of suspicion she could drum up for it.

Plus TNE who she replaced WAS scummy. All she has done is come in and tried to push a policy lynch ignoring my reason as to why Wake is town. You don't policy lynch town. I have stated why Wake is town, there has been no case counter, just continued pushing of policy im going to call that scummy.

[Rainbowdash]

@Titus - We aren't lynching a player who is not mafia. Wake is not mafia. He may be SK, but I would doubt that. So we are not going to lynch him.

[Rainbowdash]

I would like a lynch of Manera, elle or BS.

I would vote the other null/slight scum reads to stop lynches of town reads (like Loren/Wake) though. Not voting ER either, would aptil falls into the "kinda okay" votes but is town if BS/Manera are scum so don't really love that lynch.

Can we seriously kill elle who has just completely stopped posting as of late? She is scum to start then comes the massive lurk move when stuff starts happening.

[Rainbowdash]

Last couple posts have me leaving him at more null-scum. Nowhere near a town pile but im willing to go elsewhere.

So he is in that secondary group with players like jmo, JS, uct, RM, Aero

[Rainbowdash]

Dashie I have you as a town read but why are you pushing on Elle who is not playing any more instead we are waiting for a replacement for that slot and one more? It is not like you to push on low hanging fruit instead of trying to find out who else is more scummy amongst those who are active and actually playing.

Never realized he was being reaplaced until it was pointed out. Replacing or not they are still by far the scummiest slot in the game though.

jmo and sven both looking like very good counters to Loren right now.

uctri would be nice if we had time as well.

vote jmo

While I get more caught up. Somewhat shameless joining of the wagon town reads like.

[Rainbowdash]

Gut read said aptil, now i wanna hard charge uctrriton.

Vote uctri

Your move. Change your vote and he is tied for most.

[Rainbowdash]

Can someone give me a quick rundown of all the major wagons and claims so far?

You replaced scum, they can catch you up at night.

@Recent BP voters - Why now? The wagon was viable for quite a bit, but the timing is something that doesn't make sense. Basically regardless of BP alignment look for scum later on his wagon.

@BS - uticon is the only counter to BP I think.

[Rainbowdash]

ucti and ABR are so scum here.... they really need death more than anypony else. I actually didn't think elle slot could get worse but it did.

Vote BP

Amazingly the entire aptil wagon is null or worse reads, mostly worse

[Rainbowdash]

I don't like ABR either.

Want to just lynch him?

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Sven

Also good lynches:

Brian, Manera, ABR, DJ, RM

Thinking you got all of the scum in those six.

Players like uctri who I was thinking were scum yesterday I don't really think that way anymore after looking at it.

[Rainbowdash]

@Boro
I like your scum list.

Its because of the owerwhelming amount of inactives. We even have two slots without a player currently.

Boro, vote uct please.

This is a lot of the early type interactions with BP. Very low key, vaguely complementary and trying to keep him doing what he wants. But for suspicion? We get things like

hmm i guess you can add boro and lora [to would vote list] aswell.

Borophil has done nothing to catch my eye so far. Quite liking his analytic approach and recent post.

which is pretty odd for a "would vote" player mind you

No prob with boro

Then...

I still dont agree on borophil but I dont have the stregth to make a large wall and i fear time is against me aswell. Making 10 players trust me and vote with me seems futile.


VOTE: borophil

This is when deadline starts picking up, suddenly he is back and willing to vote for BP, at least until other options in aptil who is scum because... well we will get to that later... shows up

i´ll the more slow people of this thread another 12 hours to go aptil, then i am changing to boro for good.

So he jumps around on the BP read a lot, but was pushing aptil hard (after trying to get wake lynched) over BP at the end of the day. Why? Best I can tell its two things

1) Lurking
2) Gut

That's why he stood hard on aptil when BP (who he had called scum a few times) was getting ran up. That's why he was trying to quickly construct that wagon. Hard to believe that "lurking" and "gut" trump the case he had been saying was good. That's why he is scum with BP. Lets kill him and move on.

His read of BP constantly is in motion keeping him as a "maybe lynch" while showing no problems with him at all until he feels that he has to vote there. Even then he leaves the BP wagon (not only to mention avoids really even talking about it first time I push BP) to try and get quick counters of Wake and aptil.

Theory also says cop claim only happens if the guilty cant get lynched or if the innocent is going to be lynched. Otherwise it just gets dropped in a one liner or something.

@DJ - Manera was in no way the "catalyst" for the wagon. They avoided it when I pushed the wagon and instead tried to get Wake policy lynched, and then abandoned it when the wagon took off (they had a BP vote out for about 24 hours). They are one of the best scum picks out there easily. I almost voted them out the gate here.

[Rainbowdash]

Actually any real cop should counter.

Cop counters, we lynch Wake.

If Wake flips town, Loren is confirmed scum. Doc is on the cop. Cop can continue to just fire off investigations, we enter D3 with essentially up to five alignment confirmed players (Loren, Cop, N1, N2 +-Doc).

So unless im missing something huge, a cop should counter.

Also thank you Loren for actually listening to me about optimal play. See. When you play correctly good things happen.

Wake is 100% the lynch here already, I think the counter (if there is one) should come now because it essentially nets us four results

[Rainbowdash]

No. Cop should counter if there is one because the doctor is alive. Telling the doctor who to protect is ideal.

If Loren is lying and the cop doesn't counter, we have about a (1 - 12/13 * 15/16 = 13.5%) chance of the cop dying. A 13.5% chance of the doc dying.
If Loren is lying and the cop DOES counter, we have a 0% chance of the cop dying. A (1 - 11/12 * 14/15) = 14.4% chance of the doc dying.

The difference is a very slight increase in doc death (0.9%, under 1 out of 100 runs) for a GUARENTEE that the cop lives to D3. On top of that we INCREASE chance of a crosskill by about the same margin.

So yes. Cop counters. We start playing follow the cop as scum go on a mad hunt for the doctor. Its called breaking the setup.

Buck being one up. If this is a bad gambit by scum we are five up if we are right.

What do we gain from the cop saying hidden if Loren isn't the cop? Open question. Above is what we gain, a 1% increase of doc dying for a reduction to 0% of cop dying. My way cop claims, doesn't attach a result (unless its a guilty) and then breaks out two results tomorrow with a 100% chance of being here.

This is correct townplay 101. Just like the Wake investigation was.

@Wake - Seriously? Its called TEXTBOOK PLAY. You are 100% the lynch today, the only way I would ever consider a lynch elsewhere is if there was a second cop claim with a guilty. If there is a second cop claim I actually think they are more likely the town cop, but if they have an innocent you are the correct lynch. See previous posts for why.

Cop counter
Lynch Wake
If Wake is scum protect Loren
If Wake is town protect Cop
Cop death decreases from 13% to 0%
Doc death increases from 13% to 14%
Mafia death increases from 14% to 15%

SIMPLE MATH AND GAME THEORY. Its a tradeoff of slightly more danger for doc at no more danger to cop. Its not like we are in a small setup where there are 7 alive and that large kill chance breaks off equally, there are a lot of players alive so the already small (approx 7%) chance bumps under .5% each.

Somepony give me why a counter is bad. At all. This is one of those things where the foalish players who never actually do much in the form of setup design or theory just miss what the correct move is because it goes against what has been engrained in them since they started playing.

Also with a doc alive it makes sense. I would have if I had a guilty with the cop alive, or an innocent getting ran up with the doc alive.

[Rainbowdash]

Can we take a couple of votes off Wake?

Its not like we aren't going to lynch him here, but I want to just be sure we aren't getting a counter because as Skull has pointed out this doesn't quite smell right.

Also I shouldn't have to say stuff like this, but - nopony should try to be cute and not counter or anything if they are cop. Its probably going to just create headaches and when there are a few of us who 100% wouldn't even try and run that gambit, you are just increasing the chance of drawing the kill.

Book play happens the same way every time because its a proven optimal way to play the game. Optimal play was the N1 investigation of Wake (which if you are town Loren thanks for actually listening there). Optimal play now is to counter if you are a cop.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote RM

I would also be happy with Sven lynch. He is just *slightly* less likely to be scum from his reactions. The "Investigate me" play is just odd, because he would know Loren was lying... but at the same time if mafia he would have to assume its gambtingint town or SK... hard to figure out.

@Skull - I am still trying to forget that game, there is one game in over five years that was moderated more poorly. Its just the perfect example of "what not to do" over so many mod things, literally I have slowly been working on a "common mod error" type article for a long time and that game works as an example for nearly every single "never do this" thing.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbowdash, why would Sven know that Loran is lying? Wouldn't that implicitly assume they (Loran+Sven) were mafia together? Plus, if Wake is mafia {assuming without believing since I believe Wake is the SK}, then Sven would likely believe that Loran was telling the truth about being the cop rather than just guessing right.

Actually from a non-mafia standpoint there were the following possibilities from what happened

1) Wake is not mafia, Loren had to be lying
2) Wake is mafia, Loren appeared to be telling the truth

Unless Wake is mafia, it means mafia knew that Loren was lying. So if Wake is town, all mafia knew that was a fakeclaim either cop gambiting or just other player deciding to do something risky.

When everything is going to explode in the face of Loren there with Wake town, I could see making that move somewhat. Either way im moving over to RM vote though.

Also jmo is right that Loren shouldn't claim a result unless they are getting votes.

~~~~~~

Side note which is pretty general theory heavy but I see numbers coming up.

Open games cannot exist in a closed setup because it ceases to balance the way its intended to. An open setup in just about all cases has an optimal strategy. This means there is a way to do things that DOES increase the town chances of winning, and the game is balanced as such. Best example and the one I always use is Hard Boiled.

If the Vig/Tracker takes Tracker, the town will win the game with role coordination more often then not as the game starts becoming a bit of a puzzle. However if they pick Vig, the game is actually not balanced and scum should win. The choice of picking the Tracker is the optimal strategy as it IS the best, you cant argue with the numbers and stats, technically choosing the vig is playing against your win condition.

Now in this game we had the optimal strategy of if you counter or not. Again its simply a "This is the best because of the numbers". Other examples were the brought up C9++/JK9++ setups. Town should claim by day three in that setup, and claim in the optimal way. There are other situations where town should claim day two, because again the numbers support it and again its technically anti-town not to make the move.

As somepony who works with numbers for a career and spends far more time than your average pony working with opens to the point where I have multiple designed setup that run in the queue, its frustrating when the optimal strategies are ignored because you are destroying the balance of the game. And I will argue in favor of them essentially regardless of alignment because I know the optimal strategy (how to take advantage of the game as town and how counter as best possible for scum) for both sides, but also just sort of an integrity and teaching thing.

I dunno

Rant over I guess.

I would be happy if last scum were aptil-Sven-RM with a SK of ABR/BS because that's about what im expecting.

[Rainbowdash]

Interesting that you choose ABR as the SK because I've been leaning towards that recently. It's completely based on his approach to the game. He's scummy enough to where he won't be night killed, but not scummy enough to be lynched (and his actions aren't exactly flying under the radar). It's a good spot to be as SK. I'm not entirely confident in this read because I have no idea what ABR's play-style is supposed to be and I don't meta people.

Kind of an odd response since really I only have him there because I think the other three make more sense as a team.

Really toss in DJ and that's my "all scum probably in" group.

I mean, Wake, Skull, Loren, Titus are all town. JS, utcri and jmo probably aren't mafia. Pool starts shrinking up fast. That's even before extracting the ER and anti general town reads.

[Rainbowdash]

HOW THE FUCK DO YOU HAVE 24 POSTS IN A 64 PAGE GAME?

content and posts don't always correlate, take Wake having about 4x the posts of the players who have produced more content than he has.

Also RM lurks as scum. Reliably. Couple that with her treatment of BP, she is a good bet.

Also bad access until Monday. I should be around but no promises until then.

Also I would be willing to lynch ABR for replacing an exceedingly scummy slot and then be willingly useless.

[Rainbowdash]

Is there a reason why you never respond to me, RBP?

Missed some of the posts and not having a whole lot of time right now

Anyways

Yes Manera is still on a short list for me but I like the reaction to the fake result
No I don't buy meta unless its on a player I know fairly well. Reading a game and experiencing a game are two very different things. RM is one of those I will use meta on because of the large amount of contact I have had with her over the years, I actually would not at all be shocked to see her in a top three most played with list. aptil and BP both completely ignore eachother though (aptil to BP entirely, BP to aptil with some passive defense early and then a "better them than me" vote). It could be a both scum situation and that would be nice to know, im not voting aptil today though.

As far as im concerned it one of RM, ABR, Sven today. Very much prefer one of the first two.

[Rainbowdash]

I would be more than willing to vote ABR here. Him attacking JS off apparently just the JS iso, when all of BP attacks tend to be complaining about JS getting a pass for not contributing, reads more like scum trying to get a lynch instead of town looking at things.

Apart from RM he has voted all players that are almost for sure town, he is actively avoiding scumhunting and posting content, couple that with who he replaced being the best vote for scum in the game and im more than happy to lynching ABR scum before other scum.

Even look at how BP treats elle, ignores the slot 100% except for giving a very odd "more town than Skull" read while calling elle town. When he literally never mentions elle up to that point.

ABR he actually only mentions while saying how ridiculous it would be to call the two of them together.

elle never mentions BP.

So yeah, intention to move my vote after I see a VC

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, the problem with RM is that has been her usual playstyle, town or scum, while she's been dealing with medical issues.

Yeah maybe.

Also if you end up in the area of RM again you should let me know, im an hour or so from there.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote ABR

He is intentionally doing nothing useful. Verbose or not he at least does stuff usually.

I would vote SS here too.

JS is town though, look at how BP treated him the entire day, kept going back to that wagon. Plus the fact that the entire wagon on him dying would be good (not at all going to be upset with jmo, ABR, RM, Manera lynches). Going off BP I would say look more at players like jmo, ABR, BS, utic... those look like partners to him.

[Rainbowdash]

Really just go read BP, elle and ABR in iso. Its like a direct line between the two.

Mix that with ABR playing in a manner that he really hasn't done anything, is intentionally not contributing and now is lurking. He dies.

This day is simple.

[Rainbowdash]

Call me curious,Titus and Rainbow.

VOTE: Unvote

You make it seem so simple, Rainbow...

...why?

Because of the interactions and getting close to utility lynch.

elle -> BP: zero mention
ABR -> BP: defends
BP -> elle: first mention is calling them "more town than skull"
BP -> ABR: says "he doesn't look like scum with me"

Add on that elle was amazingly scummy
Add on that ABR is avoiding taking many stances
Add on that ABR is lurking and usually complains about that

Its a pretty cut and dry choice here. ABR looks like scum on interactions, ABR looks like scum independently, its a good lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

So Loren should claim a guilty. Hold an innocent unless they are about to be lynched.

[Rainbowdash]

Mmm. Don_Johnson could potentially be the SK, but at this point in the game, I can almost guarantee that he isn't Scum. So there's that, at least.

DJ is a good bet for whatever faction killed Wake. Really a player who Wake called scum is the only one who would have any reason to kill the player who after a fake guilty reiterated a VT claim.

[Rainbowdash]

Loren should just give the result, as he has said that much everything is more or less compromised at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote RM

[Rainbowdash]

Loren should claim all results at this point.

I would say its some combination of jmo/BS/DJ. Was going to vote DJ here but preview shows a post from jmo that wants to make me think and go hard there instead.

[Rainbowdash]

Skull clearly wanted Brian skies input on the situation and you hammered with PLENTY of time left.

You never wait in a that scenario. Any additional information is basically WIFOM at best and normally can be used by scum to try and help pick out who the roles they are looking for are. Would make that hammer again and again.

Also im just waiting for the results. You know my reads and depending on the results I will just refine as needed. Your first post was scummy because you were specifically SK hunting, not scumhunting but SK hunting which really makes me uncomfortable. Its fine to say "I thought X was scum" but to say "I think X is SK", especially when its a player who is one of the least likely to be mafia, is scummy.

[Rainbowdash]

RBD: care to rehash your maenarascum theory or is that dead?

They are on a shortlist. I still think they are an above average scum pick.

My last list still hold about the same.

[Rainbowdash]

Okay, I'm going to need everyone to name two people you think are scum.

One for SK..

ready. go.

no

Vote utc

Explaination incoming, but BP and him played very touch and go type game where they poked at each other but never really attacked. RM and him basically ignored each other. Im liking the vote more than the Titus one, although I would be quite happy to end with a dead DJ today as well.

[Rainbowdash]

RBD: your desire for my death is baffling for similar reasons mentioned above, except that you are 100% not mafia. and if you were sk, you would not be serving yourself well by pushing the lynch of another player who could be pegged as sk. so my guess for you is misguided town. which is disappointing, because you are usually better. :/

This response is going to get some odd looks...

Its arguably a fine move for the SK to not kill the doctor. In the event that the cop is outted, it actually can become the right move to not kill the doctor. In this setup and all multiball setups a lot of the town win chances come on how fast they can get rid of a single faction. Lets say D1 SK lynch - town is way way up in this setup.

Now the SK has to get through a lot of lynches, so wants two kills a night. If the doctor is tied up, I would actually consider leaving the doctor alone because it means none of my kills are being blocked. Maybe im overthinking things, but you make a whole lot of sense theoretically as the SK here. Probably not enough to actually justify a lynch here (also there always is a chance you got overruled by scum partners) but im not willing to give a total pass over that result really because its arguable theory that scum would make that pass. Again I know ive decided not to kill claimed roles as scum in situations a few times because I saw better things.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm putting a mercy vote on Wake with an icing of OMGUS on it. Wake you need to take a rest from this game and Mafia in general right now.

Vote: Wake

I support the BoroPhil wagon because when I saw BoroPhil get killed off in another game of mine, I had literally no read on him, but then he got correctly scumkilled before so that shows how much I know about him. If you need me to flip before deadline, I'll flip.

Stuff like this is a good reason that utc is scum.

At this point Wake was already probably town, and the BP wagon was gaining some steam. Utc comes in with the Wake vote, and then takes an odd stance on BP. He seems to say "well he could be scum, I saw him as scum once and had no read on him, if you need me to vote him I will". Which is far more actually trying to give an explaination as to why he isn't voting BP and giving himself a way to move there later while he is voting town. Just reads more of a scum trying to keep a partner alive if possible vote and reasoning than town.

[Rainbowdash]

Kinda a side note here... but JS is probably town due to RM. She tends to not bus as scum and kept looping back to him.

[Rainbowdash]

I actually had it reversed at the end. To me it was no doubt Mae with one of AA/Anti.

JS was town since the RM death though. Nothing short of a scum claim would have changed that one.

[Rainbowdash]

Dashie got any tips for me so I am not such lynchbait?

Granted in this case I was scum, but most of the time when I am lynched in D 1 or D 2 I am town...

Your content drops off as scum so that's why I started pushing you. Its one of those where I am at the stage where I think I can somewhat accurately meta you at this point.

Content is always good. When content is high its much harder to be lynched (regardless of alignment)