Open 535: Enemy of My Enemy

[Misaka Mikoto]

Okay. Instead of reading the last 30 pages for now (I will later), I think it would be a good idea to determine if we should even lynch at all.

So, as noted, it's 3-2-1 at the moment.

Whatever we do, town can not lynch the Werewolf. If we lynch a Werewolf, then Maf kill, it's 2-2, mafia win. If the Werewolf gets pushed to L-1, I think it's probably in their best interests to claim; scum will probably hammer even if you claim townie, either in the hope that you're lying, or in order to force the mislynch through. You'll probably get lynched just claiming VT anyway. Claiming Werewolf will get any town off your wagon, since it's a matter of life-or-death for the town in this scenario. REGARDLESS of what happens today, we are completely dependent upon the werewolf kill in order to salvage this game.

So if we lynch, there are three options-

We hit town: If we lynch town it's 2-2-1. And it will be completely dependent upon the NK- if Maf kills Werewolf and Werewolf kills town, it's 1-2, Maf wins. If Maf and Werewolf same-kill town, it's 1-2-1, Maf still win. If Werewolf kills maf and maf kills town, it's 2-1-1. Now, if we lynch town and both parties crosskill, it will be 2-1, and town will be at lylo and need to lynch correctly to win.

We lynch mafia today: it's 3-1-1. If both kills hit town, it's 1-1-1. If one kill hits Werewolf/Mafia and one hits town it's 2-1, lylo. If they both crosskill, town wins.

We lynch Werewolf: Auto-maf win.

Now, let's say we NL. 3-2-1 going into night. In which case there are the following options:

- Both hit town:
If both hit townies, then it's 1-2-1, mafia wins. If werewolf kill hits maf and Maf kill hits werewolf then It's 2-1 lylo. Now, if they hit same townie it's 2-2-1.

- Werewolf hits Mafia, Mafia hits town: Then it's 2-1-1 going into tomorrow.
- Both hit same town: Then it's 2-2-1 going into tomorrow. best option is to NL. If we lynch town in this scenario, then it's 1-2-1, maf wins. If we lynch werewolf in this scenario, it's 2-2, Maf wins. If we lynch Maf in this scenario, it's 2-1-1, and we pray that both parties crosskill for a town win.

- Mafia hits Werewolf, Werewolf hits Mafia: Then it's 2-1, lylo.
- Mafia hits Werewolf, Werewolf hits town: 2-2, maf wins.

So, if we lynch, amount of scenarios in which we can survive until tomorrow: 5/8
If we no lynch, amount of scenarios we can survive until tomorrow: 5/8

I'm sick and dizzy so my math may be off here, but looking at sheer possibilities, the amount of outcomes in which we lynch and survive to the next day are identical to the amount of outcomes in which we no lynch and survive to the next day. The thing is that if we lynch, we NEED NEED NEED to hit mafia. Otherwise a Mafia win is basically guaranteed.

Anybody correct me if my probabilities listing is off here; I'm not great at this sort of thing.

[Misaka Mikoto]

There are six players: 3v2v1. Clearly there is no disadvantage to lynching. We do not even need to lynch mafia since there is a chance I will kill mafia tonight. In fact, by lynching, we reduce the pool, which is good.

I don't necessarily agree. If we kill town today, then we are even more completely dependent upon you hitting scum than if we NL. No matter what, if you miss, we lose, if we lynch town. Whereas if we NL, we only lose if you both hit townies. And I must admit that I'd rather minimize the impact something completely out of my control has on my win chances. I'm not necessarily against a lynch for today, but I'd want an actual strong, convincing case on somebody before I pushed for it. If somebody has made such a case I'd love to see it.

[Misaka Mikoto]

True enough. The fact that you outed yourself does change probabilities and the scum night-time dynamic considerably, and I suppose that it would be better for town to attempt to contribute through a lynch than not; no lynching may not be the best idea. I'll be back by tonight with an analysis of the game so far and probably a vote then.

[Misaka Mikoto]

i meant a no lynch seem better today if scum vs ww cross-fire however the town would lose if either ww & or scum target town instead so what do you suggest ?

After thinking about it, I agree with Aegor. Trying to fish for scum is probably a far more beneficial use of today than no lynching; my main case for no-lynching really was kind of dependent on the Maf having to fish for the Werewolf. But since we know who the Werewolf is, they already have a perfectly good scum-kill. So if the scum have an obvious target, then essentially we're dependent on the kill regardless of the results of today; so even a townie flip really isn't as inferior to a no lynch as I thought. Sub-optimal, of course, and I certainly don't want it to happen, but on a whole NLing isn't really going to get the town much of anywhere; whereas hitting scum today would be a boon for the town; in the absolute worst case scenario it becomes a 1-1-1 situation, and really a 2 v. 1 lylo is more likely. If we can get a good, strong case on at least one Mafiate, then town will be set.

Out of curiosity, I see you aren't voting. Gun to your head. Who do you want to lynch today?

[Misaka Mikoto]

He replaced in at the same time as you did. So the same question could be asked of you.

Actually, he replaced in three days earlier, and stated that he was reading the thread back in #732. Yet, aside from a question to Bubba, Zekrom has yet to produce a single read or comment on the last 30 pages.

(I have yet to read because I wanted to focus on the lynch v. no lynch issue first; lynching makes catching up a higher priority. Again, an analysis post should be up by tonight.)

So, who would you want to lynch Zekrom? Who do you think is pro-town? Aside from the post from bubba that prompted a pretty bleh question from you, do you have any comments on the game thus far?

[Misaka Mikoto]

Okay, here is my PBPA analysis of all the players (Well, only one is really a PBPA analysis. The rest are more summaries.)

Spoiler: BC

Beast Charizard:
#42- You agree that Banakai's post isn't good, you would be willing to vote Bankai... and yet your vote is on Daniel Bryan? Which was a random vote? You claim it's because you want to wait for Banakai to explain themselves... but it's not like Banakai would be in any danger from a single vote. Why not add some pressure?
#69- BC says that he wants an explanation for Banakai's comment. Banakai then explains the comment in #62. Yet this warrants no comment? Why is Banakai still scummy? Why is Rational suspicious?
#94- Both RM and Banakai are on beastcharizard's "scum radar", yet neither are worthy of a vote? Why? Can't you vote them as pressure and then see how they react? Your refusal to back up your suspicions with a vote makes them feel very fluffy and weak.
#109- Now beast finally votes Banakai. What changed? Oh! BwBurke and RM voted for Banakai! Am I the only one that thinks that Beast just voted because a wagon had started up?
#114- Feels like a loaded trap question meant to paint people as scum rather than actually sort them.
#131- BC says that he thinks that RM is scum due to his playing and yet doesn't vote them. Or FOS them. Or explain why RM is even scummy.
#146- Suddenly Burke is scum! Why? I'm not sure. Beastcharizard doesn't bother to explain. And then beastcharizard takes one of RM's posts as a scum claim... and yet Banakai is still more worthy of a lynch? Huh?
#207- Now TvK is also scum? Why? Beast doesn't give the town any kind of explanation. He also doesn't explain his reads on Burke or RM, except for the latter "claiming scum". Am I the only one that feels like BC's reads are incredibly erratic and fake?
#214- There we go, here beast actually explains a scumread! It isn't an awful piece of analysis, but he attacks Banakai for only saying that RM claimed scum. This feels kind of feels hypocritical... given how the only part of the read on RM that Beast has explained is how RM claimed scum. Still waiting for more content in that regard. Also he explains an inconsistency and the explaination isn't awful, but I'd want more on exactly HOW TvK is defending RM, and why the way TvK is defending him makes them buddies. Beastcharizard is content to throw out a bunch of reads, but never explains them.
#261 feels a bit weird. There's nothing... incredibly wrong with it, but his read is crazy vague with no elaboration behind it. And apparently the only wagon he considers joining is Burke? Despite the fact that he seems to have felt that RM is scum for longer, and feels that RM CLAIMED SCUM? Man this feels fake.

Between Rainbow and charizard I would say rainbow comes across a good deal better in their conversation. Rainbow is correct, instead of actually engaging Rainbow on the reasons why charizard is scum, Charizard just goes "Oh, you're finding a lot of people scummy, so it doesn't matter." Such blatant discredting. Sure, charizard asks for an explanation, but feels the need to add in an unnecccesary jab about the amount of players Rainbow has as scummy while at it. Is this scummy? If not, then why bring it up? Does this make Rainbow's arguments weaker somehow?

#281 feels kind of OMGUSy- suddenly Rainbow is scummy too, after Rainbow does an attack on Charizard. (Interestingly, Rainbow is the fifth player that charizard has called scum! While we're talking about people who have a large scumlist...)
#316- Suddenly Team 9 is scum too! Why? No explanation. What happened to TvK? You haven't mentioned TvK in forever. Are they still scum? If not, why not? After all, you suspected him due to associative links with RM, who is still alive.
#324- I hate how bc shifts from "Well, RM is scummy" to "Well, RM makes a good policy lynch too" at the end of the post. It feels like an excuse for when RM flips town.
#383- At least this isn't an awful case on greygnarl. I'd say that this is actually the most decent rationale he's provided all game.
#390- Suddenly he attacks JD of being scum as well! This feels really omgusy. Oh, and remember when BC attempted to discredit Rainbow by saying that Rainbow had too many suspects? Here are the people that BC has suspected this game (Often giving little to no reason):
Team 7, RM, TvK, Burke, Rainbow, Banakai, JD.
*Whistle* You might want to practice what you preach, BC.
Also, BC mentions taking a stand... but the only people BC has really prodded thus far with actual votes and pressure have been relatively easy targets; Bankai and RM. He'll have more controversial reads- Team 7 being scummy, Rainbow being scummy, etc. But he never backs this up with votes. Or even FOSes.
#401- And now Bubba is scum! (Note: this is the eighth person BC has suspected this game It feels like whenever somebody starts turning their head towards BC, he comes out swinging. It's interesting how many of BC's soft scum reads happen right after a player puts pressure on him. Also, he says that he will vote Bubba... and doesn't do it. Instead staying on the greygnarl wagon. And what happened to the other 5 people you've suspected. Why is bubba scummier than them?
#423- What happened to your bubba suspicion, BC? What happened to your saying that you would be okay voting them? Suddenly you are fixated on easy-lynch Grey again.
#454- Yet another OMGUS suspicion from beast with no explanation! Cooo~oool.
#463- After talking so much about how the optimal play is to lynch the other werewolf... bubba suddenly states that he would also be willing to lynch bubba? Huh? Not to mention that his case on bubby is crazy weak.
#475- This is one of the few non-scummy posts I feel like bc has made. This whole "you think I'm scummy, lynch me!" Doesn't feel like it would come from the mafia when they have an advantage over the other scumteam. Given that charizard wasn't under all that much pressure at the time, though, it could just be posturing. In fact, that's relatively likely.
#494- Why do you need to wait until tomorrow to make your case? This feels like stalling.
#508- After all that saying that you are "100% sure bubba is scum" and that bubba is the user you want to lynch today if we don't lynch the WW... you vote Mindgamer? What??? And the case is hardly great.
#566- Why is Mindgamer suddenly above your "100% scum read" bc?
#584- A few townpoints for noting that by the logic utilized you yourself could be considered scummy. You lose those townpoints for that badly explained Team 7 read suddenly materializing again, and then not following through with a vote. Why is Mindgamer more scummy than Team 7, somebody you've been suspecting for much longer?
#589- All this random talk of your own lynch is really the only reason I'm slightly hesitant about my scumread of you; I'm still not convinced that it isn't posturing though, since you've never come under all that much pressure.
#593- So... basically... your main reason for suspecting Mindgamer is WIFOM/Gut. And this trumps your "100% scum read" on Bubba? Or how about that Team 6 read you've had since yesterday?
#627- Suddenly mindgamer is less scummy than bubbajack? And you're pushing for a bubbajack flash wagon when you've been talking about how scummy Mindgamer is all day?
#660- After all that confidence that bubba is scum the last couple days, to the point of pushing for a deadline flash wagon on them... suddenly you're all hesitant and don't want any votes on them? I suppose that this could be legitimate townie paranoia... it just doesn't feel like all that pro-town a thought process.
#709- This post gives me bad vibes. Is it because he seems to be saying "You must really believe I'm scum" to the scumread he's been badgering for most of the game, thereby implying that the scumhunting is genuine, and that thus the player is town? Probably.
#740- Wow. That is such an incredibly weak reason to not vote bubba. So what if he's active? How does that make him more likely to be town? If you're so positive that he's scum, in a situation where if we lynch we need to lynch scum... you aren't willing to vote the scumread you've been pushing most game just because he's vocal? Wha?
... So all that is said in done: BC's suspicions have not felt genuine all game. They feel really omgusy and often feel like they're attacking players of convenience, and he never votes his more controversial scumreads and attempt to make waves. The scumhunting just doesn't feel genuine, and so many of BC's posts just feel fake/scummy.

Spoiler: erneiz_hyde/Zekron

Overall erneiz_hyde doesn't give me great vibes; it's just the way he posts. He'll vanish for a couple days, then pop out a wall, and then vanish for another couple days, and then pop out another wall. This is a great way for scum to float under the radar and look like they're contributing while still been minimalistic in their posting.
One thing that does bug me about erneiz_hyde is that he repeatedly says that RM is town... yet doesn't seem to put any effort into convincing the town of this; he just continually notes it offhand. It feels like town!Ernietz would put more effort into trying to derail the RM lynch, honestly. It's just so... casual. He'll slip it into his posts, but even when a wagon that nearly goes to a lynch occurs on RM... he doesn't actually do anything. This feels more like distancing from a lynch you think is likely to flip town, honestly.
And I hate that when it's do-or-die for the town, erneiz suddenly decides to just drop off the face of the earth and move to just prod-dodging for little reason. I can see Ernietz!Scum being satisfied by the lack of pressure on him and just choosing to lurk under the radar all day. I don't see the pro-town benefit in suddenly dropping off the face of the Earth.
Then we have Zekrom who says that he read the thread, yet I need to prod him to post reads for whatever reason. Then he posts the reads and doesn't explain them at all, without even giving a single scumread. So you don't think a single thing another player has done is scummy, Zekrom? Or at least scummy enough to vote?
Also, you dodged my other question. In those 30 pages, what did you find to be significant? What is your opinion on the lynches- do you think the wagons were scum or town driven? What pro-town posts did you see? Scummy posts?

Spoiler: Jordan_Downey

On a whole, I find JD really pro-town. The pressure he puts on players feels genuine, the arguments he makes are logical and make sense, and although I don't necessarily agree with them, it does feel like legitimate scumhunting (Although this is multi-ball, so that isn't entirely indicative)
Also, I like the way Jordan defended RM a lot more than I like the way EH defended RM. He's actually pushing for reasons why RM is town, and it genuinely feels like he's trying to convince other players of his views, and not just pop in, note his town-read, and then do nothing about it. #147 is a perfect example of this; he doesn't just say "Oh, RM is harmless", he outright is pushing Beast to leave RM alone. I like #188 too; this feels like a genuine push for more content, and overall not something scum are going to pull. The only really worrysome thing to me is after all that effort to push against RM getting lynched, he's suddenly fine with an RM lynch in #254, though he then seems to start pushing against a RM lynch again in #256.
I like Jordan's cases. #257 feels sincere, and overall feels quite logical and the arguments are sound. And it doesn't feel opportunistic at all; the hydra is putting in effort to add their own reasons and explain them.
Though suddenly RM is scum again in #270 It feels like Jordan_Downey's read on RM is REALLY inconsistent.
#330 is another genuine post. The prodding and pushing looks pretty townie, from my perspective. And in #371 RM isn't scum again.
I really like his response to charizard in #391. It feels honest, and the questions in the post feel like legitimate probing; it really feels like JD is trying to sort players. Which, again, isn't a huge towntell because multi-ball, but still.
#404- This MAY be a nulltell, but the pressure to getting people to contribute still feels town to me. Scum LIKE stagnation, because it provides a perfect excuse to float under the radar and avoid providing content. Though I'm not positive that this is a town tell so much as a "cares about the game tell"
#457 feels like pro-town paranoia.
On a whole I like the DP case; it has a solid basis and it feels sincere. The logic is there and it really feels like JD is legitimately scumhunting.
On a whole, my town read on JD is half-gut, half-tone. His posts just feel sincere; there's legitimate logic behind them, and some posts (such as when he attempted to prod everybody and got frustrated at the game's stagnation) really reeked of town motivation to me. His cases are logical and feel genuine, and I just don't see JD!Scum here. My only concern is that I feel like his arguments with RM were a bit erratic; I would like a clearer explanation of how exactly that read evolved over time.

Spoiler: Bubba

Overall Bubba seems to think the way I think, which is a major plus. Bubba's reads really do feel genuine, like JD's. I don't really like the fact that it feels like he's voting RM less because he thinks RM is scum, and more out of policy though. I would say that Bubba looks decently good coming out of that exchange with RainbowDash. His defenses were logical and overall feel logically sound.
#302 feels like a legitimate town-slip to me... the ignorance of mechanics feels relatively genuine, when it's info that maf would definitely know.
In later posts, it does feel like Bubbajack is actually trying though- #366. The beginning makes a legitimate argument against RM, and it doesn't just feel like he's coasting based off RM's VI status. And I like the way that Bubba pushes against an Aegor lynch, his logic is sound and overall I would say scum would be far more likely to try and push for it; they want that Werewolf dead to avoid crosskills.
I also really like the bandwagon analysis in #489. It's simple, but both logical and relatively compelling.
I also don't see bubbajack sticking to two wagons that aren't getting that much traction instead of the DP wagon, which is an incredibly easy mislynch. The reasons bubba stays off it feel genuine. As does his complaint about town not putting in enough effort, in a tone I REALLY don't see scum using.
Also, I'm really not sure who bubba could be partnered with. He outright asks why he couldn't be scum with JD, and I don't really see scum doing that with a buddy; why open the door to people considering that possibility? Bubba was one of the first people to really attack hientz, and really I don't see bubba spontaneously bussing like that. And chizard v. bubba interactions just don't feel like scum v. scum at all.

TL;DR-
JD and Bubba are probably town. (Bubba especially)
BC and Zekron are probs scum. (Especially BC)

Zekron- Make a case on me. What about me is scummy? What about me is pro-town? How do you weigh these two? And aside from reads, do you have any commentary on the last 30 pages of the game? Also, sell me on BC-town. I'm not feeling it at all. Also, similar to Bubba's question, but... gun to your head. Who would you vote and why? Also, why did you post three different read lists in the span of 4 minutes?

JD- I would really like a general explanation of how your read on RM evolved through the course of the game. It feels a bit erratic to me.

Preview-edit: Umm... how did I go from null to scum without even posting? And how are Charizard and JD clear?

Right now I could do a Charizard or Zekron lynch (And Zekron looks scummier and scummier the more he posts...) but I would kind of prefer a Charizard wagon atm. I'll compromise on a Zekron wagon if need-be, though. I won't be lynching JD or Bubba today.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Charizard

[Misaka Mikoto]

Hmm... I do see beastcharizard's point. The problem with it is both that you couldn't know that you or your scumbuddy wouldn't get lynched instead of Aegor; for you, that guarantee that Aegor would flip scum would be a free lynch that the town would most likely jump on. And the fact that you didn't share it would give to the Werewolves a large clue that you are Mafia planning to do exactly what you outlined, so a crosskill would be more probable, making it much more likely that both parties will crosskill, which isn't beneficial to the Mafia in any way; if anything, it gives a strong advantage to town. (It's not as though the WW wouldn't know who got the result, and there are very few reasons for a town player to not out it.) Outing the result gives you a free non-Mafia lynch, and the mafia want to get rid of the werewolves just as bad as the town does; it makes the NK completely under the mafia's control and they don't have to worry about crosskills. It also keeps the werewolves from necessarily suspecting you, and avoiding night kills is incredibly important at this stage of the game.

So there is definitely more town benefit than scum benefit, but it's pretty WIFOMy, and I can see a scum rationale in doing what you did as well.

Out of curiosity, how sure are you that bubba is scum? After all you've had a suspicion of bubba for a good chunk of the game, but your read seems to keep fluctuating. Are you more or less sure that Bubba is scum than that I am?

[Misaka Mikoto]

you & Bubba seem like scum buddies

I'd be curious as to a case linking the two of us. I can actually see some possible links- us clearing each other, going after the same targets, etc. But I want a case from your mouth.

Also:

Zekron- Make a case on me. What about me is scummy? What about me is pro-town? How do you weigh these two? And aside from reads, do you have any commentary on the last 30 pages of the game? Also, sell me on BC-town. I'm not feeling it at all. Also, similar to Bubba's question, but... gun to your head. Who would you vote and why? Also, why did you post three different read lists in the span of 4 minutes?

Preview-edit: Umm... how did I go from null to scum without even posting? And how are Charizard and JD clear?