Open 538: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Hey guys, I am replacing a guy.
Looks like I'm confirmed town according to Boro.
That is awesome, because it allows me to indulge in my inherent laziness.
Someone should compile for me a list of all claimed night actions, I'd like to see that.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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For the crime of...asking for the night actions?
Yes, that is a pure scum act - tell me more about your views on the game?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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By the looks of it you are hardly alone in the slacking department this game.
Luckily I'm like a boost of adrenaline...or, at least I post a lot and make (semi) witty remarks, which is probably about the same thing.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Also, all of you should have it easy. My slot is confirmed and there are five other players with two scum amongst them. Which means all of you, by flipping a coin, should have 50% accuracy which is signifigantly better than the site's norm.
Seriously now, how are we in a hard situation?
As people show up I'd like them all to make a note of who they are thinking we should lynch today - that would also be helpful to me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Any particular reason, or do you just hate his face?
Also, no listing of actions for me? :sad face:-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I will also admit on a pride point - I really hope scum regrets which town player they killed last night. I really do...though I suppose a lot of that will end up depending on whether or not I derp my choices for who to lynch today.
Ooooh, though that makes me wonder if scum chose the active player because he was on to something...hurm...-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Both Pepper and Zebe were not fans of Boro.
Good to know...
@Boro - hey, apparently you're obv. scum, why should I not just sheep the town players who disliked your personal body aroma?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@ETL - So who should I sheep you on for the lynch?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Well, almost assuredly at least one scum in ETL/Lucky/BB.
@BB - why do people believe your investigate on me?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I tend to presume at least one scumbuddy bussed for credit - those are the non-confirmed towns on said wagon.
Why do you believe BB about me being cleared?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'm asking why people believe him enough to call me town.In post 1196, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:@Thor: you asked BB why he believes his own investigation? Or am I misunderstanding that?
My theory is that I haven't read the game - as stated.In post 1196, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Also, you were talking about boro being scum when boro already flipped town, so I'm a bit confused. What are your theories?
@Smudger - I agree with ETL, I'd like to see a bit of the logic behind your PoE. At the very least, why do you think Aptil is town?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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That would require me to read Day 1 and Day 2 - what part of my 'I'm lazy' comment isn't sinking in here?In post 1208, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:@Thor and BB: Can you guys please give me your impressions of smudger and lucky? Anything standing out to you from D1/D2 or the wagons?
How so?In post 1209, BBmolla wrote:If I was going purely off wagons, aptil is probably town?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@Lucky - why couldn't both be scum?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How is he guaranteed besides the PoE that assumed Aptil was town?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So it's just that at least one Doc is guaranteed? That makes sense by itself, but then I feel it once again begs the question - why did you presume a town/scum situation when it could also have been a scum/scum?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I am excited by everything that's happening.
Anyone with a town PM that isn't Smudger should feel ashamed.
I mean...Smudger is out-towning you right now...have you seen his posts? They're the most pro-town thing in the thread right now and are barely readable, roll that one over in your head a bit.
Heck, I even think he looks scummy and he's *still* the most pro-town player of the lot of you. Egads!
I'd love to hear anything from Aptil - otherwise I may just help lynch that slot for lulz.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why not vote him now then? He's assured scum to you and has a vote on him.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Meh.In post 1232, BBmolla wrote:Thor, guess the scumteam, go
...meh.In post 1232, BBmolla wrote:I'm doing ISOs so I stop getting shamed by Thor
Is there any reason I should consider a Smudger/Lucky team over others? I mean, i could go do some Isos and offer my thoughts on it, but why is it worth checking out that team over, say, Smudger's Aptil/Lucky team?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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When do I ever make theories about scum teams. I'm pretty sure I'm on open record as *not* liking to hunt for teams.In post 1237, BBmolla wrote:when do you plan to make theories about possible scum teams?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@Smudger.In post 1231, Thor665 wrote:Why not vote him now then? He's assured scum to you and has a vote on him.
Why unvote Aptil?In post 1243, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Thorn.... lol.... what a great misnomer.
UNVOTE:
I really do not like smudger's 1230 like... AT ALL. Smudger/lucky was what I was looking at based on the analysis I'd done over the night, when I was still excited about this game. How I got there, I don't really remember. I'd have to dig up my notes and I probably wont do that. But anyway, I'd be voting him if they weren't cross voting like idiots.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Because I'm not sure who scum are and it would be interesting to me to test two things.In post 1248, Smudger wrote:Kn answer to Thor 's question, I will, why dont you?
1. If you are all talk about voting Aptil, or if you are serious.
2. If an Aptil with 2 votes on him gets quicklynched.
I thought what I was trying to do was really quite obvious - why are you asking me why wouldn't I vote Aptil...it's not like I've claimed him as a major scumread or anything.
Did he do this? When? That sounds kind of wonky, I'd like to see the post(s) in question.In post 1249, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Thor - what I mean is that my gut is winning against numbers here regarding aptil. I also don't like how pushy smudger is being, as though he just really wants a lynch, yet he had to be convinced that his only two scum reads, by his own logic, must be the last two scum.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I feel lied toIn post 1250, anorway wrote:Votecount-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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If you are town I hope you feel bad about your performance here.
If you are scum - well played.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Did you have the ability to make the commitment to the game when you signed up for it?
Because if no, then why did you ever sign up?
And if yes, then why am I having to listen to your work schedule complaints?
It's a game, I'm here to play it, I prefer to play it with people who are also choosing to play it. If that's a problem for you then, yes, you should replace out. If it's not then yes, you should play the game and stop making excuses. You're the one who said you could make the commitment, not me, and if you think it's unreasonable for me to expect you to live up to the commitment you chose to make then please explain how that works because I disagree with you rather strongly on that point. I'm pretty sure a lot of us work long work days and schedules, I know I do, but I either make time for games or scale back in the amount of games I am in, and I would consider it uncool to use a busy day or two as an excuse. It's not like your lack of contribution was different over the weekend or prior to this long day, so unless you're working 15 hour days every day for the past eight days then something is a little wonky here, and if you are working that then what the heck are you doing trying to play mafia?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Also, I'm not even sure where you're coming from getting in my face about it.
If you are town, and let's presume you are, do you think you're playing well and to your wincon and helping your other town teamates?
Because if the answer is 'yes' Wooosh!
And if the answer is 'no' then you should well understand my frustration with what you are currently doing and shouldn't be getting uppity with me when I point out that it's harmful to my wincon. You should be agreeing with me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@Smudger - looking some stuff over, I think you're scum. Is there any real town evidence for you?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Also, I will admit, I'm starting to think Aptil is just really bad town.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Beard.
What does it matter to you at this stage?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Heck, apparently you think Smudger is scum, so...shouldn't you kind of be on board with this thought process?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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For me a lot of it is the vote counts and the flips.
[L-3] Does Bo Know: Zebe, DoctorPepper, Smudger, Cheery Dog
At this point the above wagon is;
Confirmed town being voted by: Confirmed Town, Thor (who is considered confirmed), Smudger, and Confirmed Town.
I mean...that just looks iffy. Here's the competition;
[L-3] Cheery Dog: EspeciallyTheLies, Mr_Blonde, Lucky2u, Kalimar
Confirmed town being voted by: Unknown, Town, Unknown, and Scum.
Lucky moved from Cheery to DBK - so if he's scum then he...what, decided he didn't like being part of the uber scum push on the scum infested Cheery wagon? Meh, not really buying that, nor that the wagon was so heavily scum peopled. Doesn't quite add up.
Also, I'm pretty convinced ETL = town now.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Hurm...so...also need to puzzle out the Lucky/BB situation.
One of those filthy scumSmurfs is a filthy scumSmurf.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@BB - please justify why I should think you're town?
Also, you think Aptil/Smudger is the scumteam, yes? So, you tend to believe no scum bussed Kalimar the lurky scum buddy? How do you get to that conclusion?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@ETL - depending on your situation an explanation of BB=town would be nice to see. If I can get that sorted I'm probably down with the idea of lynching Lucky/Smudger.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Support this please, because if true you'll sell me.In post 1275, BBmolla wrote:2. I lynched Kalimar when I could have easily lynched DP instead-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Meh - Boro was hardly a real contender at that point. Am I missing something?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why didn't you mention the Pepper wagon at that stage?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I suppose it's up to me to read it - but BB was willing to take up the challenge of presenting a town case on himself and he sold me pretty well.In post 1288, Smudger wrote:What do you mean by town evidence? All I can say right now is I am not confirmed town. I would like to believe my ISO may provide that to you all but that's up to how you read it. Yes I could be scum, but I know Aptil and Lucky are based on what I know.
What would you say is/are the core reason(s) you should look town?
Like, has anything happened that really showed you as pro-town or not a Kalimar scumbuddy or something?
I'm sure this question makes sense to you - but you lost me. I feel like you're asking me a lot of things in one big jumble. Parse it out please?In post 1288, Smudger wrote:Ok the reason you believe I am scum is clear and you cover the only possible alternative to the move of vote by Lucky, why is that not the case, it is highly likely to have been so from where I am sitting. In addition where is Town Aptil in all this?
So...basically Lucky gave intent.In post 1288, Smudger wrote:If we are going to look at Votes and previous lynches then let's look at the Kalimar lynch. I was going to hammer Kalimar and gave intent. Lucky had done so before me, but time was counting down.
[snip]
But then Lucky Hammers:
[snip]
So who was going to bus who? Look at the lead up to that lynch.
Then you gave intent.
Then Lucky hammered before you got back to hammer.
And...that makes it look more like a Lucky bus of Kalimar than a Smudger bus of Kalimar...?
I don't follow. What am I missing here? Looks like you stated a hammer promise after a hammer promise was already made, making it a meaningless promise at that stage unless Lucky had failed to deliver, and then Lucky delivered. I'm not sure why that should make either of you look particularly better or worse than the other.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Where are Zebe and gamsimbre?
I expressed that theory as a 'why would that even be the case'? For that to be the case literally all the scum would have had to hop on the wagon at that stage, and for some reason, with both his scumbuddies clearly focused on getting 'Town A' lynched he decides to hop off and vote 'Town B' for some reason? ...it just feels weird as a scum action. I don't see why he'd bother.In post 1290, Smudger wrote:Your VCA reasoning seems clear. You provide a thought as to why Lucky might have moved his vote, i.e. He did not feel comfortable as scum on a scum heavy wagon. But you dismiss that. My point is why could it not be the case as to me it is.
Do you?
No, it doesn't, but the whiny reaction to me calling out the bad play made me feel like Aptil was more likely town - because I insulted his town play and then he got a little kvetchy at me. Felt townish.In post 1290, Smudger wrote:I also ask where "town Aptil" is in all this. In fact IIRC he has stayed away from most wagons. That does not seem particularly town to me.
Also, the way Kalimar dinged Aptil for hypocrisy and buddied to Fusion over attacking Aptil really didn't feel much like a scum/scum interaction to me.
I will admit to not being a huge fan of Lucky's slot, but I feel like you're a more assured bet.In post 1290, Smudger wrote:The hammer shows what it shows, you should be suspicious of us both and, from my PoV, lucky is scum and bussed his buddy.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Eh, that's weak - you have a theory scum team and are using as proof of their scumminess that they aren't on his town or scum reads list, but he had multiple players not on that list, so it's just as good a tell to prove that those players are his scumbuddies.In post 1293, Smudger wrote:Where are ETL and DP? Yes people are missing but those 2, Lucky and Kalimar stick out now.
Frankly, I would expect at least one of his buddies to appear on that list as either scum or town, and maybe the other to be in the null field. So I am really not being sold by this.
I thought I had considered it and dismissed it already?In post 1293, Smudger wrote:Not really I don't see why he bothered, and maybe it is clutching at straws on my part but it should be a consideration.
Go iso Kalimar for Aptil - his iso isn't huge and it's in there.In post 1293, Smudger wrote:You need to point at the Kalimar Aptil thing as it did not ping with me. If it is as you say it is, ummm yes it could well be a scum v scum.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Well let me check...oh, wait, snap, I'm scum this game. How silly of me!In post 1296, Smudger wrote:Thor are you sure you are town?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Okay...in that case my answer is 'Yes, I think it looks townish'
Wow, the question's answer is much more useful when answered straight up.
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So basically...yes - that one went nowhere. So I was right and my original snarky answer was acceptable and you didn't need me to take it serious?In post 1300, Smudger wrote:
I don't get why we did this.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Yes, there most assuredly is and it's mildly silly that you think otherwise. If you think it's possible to see scum intent why in the universe would you then imagine it's impossible to see town intent? I, frankly, almost exclusively town hunt - I am not called bad at the game by many.In post 1303, Lucky2u wrote:
Is there such a thing as town evidence? I know you are confirmed town but I just wanted to stop and complain about this comment.In post 1262, Thor665 wrote:@Smudger - looking some stuff over, I think you're scum. Is there any real town evidence for you?
Why?In post 1303, Lucky2u wrote:This is highly possible, [Aptil] has been like that before, but I don't think it's the case right now.
Because scum bus, it's a thing. How many games have you seen where no scum voted the first scumbuddy to be lynched?In post 1303, Lucky2u wrote:why is it so likely that someone bussed kalimar?
I can't think of any.
I suppose it happens, but it seems exceedingly rare.
Do you know something I don't?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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By this logic scum evidence doesn't exist either, only scum intent, and your issue was me using the word 'evidence' and not 'intent'.In post 1305, Lucky2u wrote:1. There is a difference between town intent and evidence. Evidence for town is rare to non-existent because it's FACT, not opinion or guess work. So he really can't provide evidence, unless he has a flipped cop not guilty on him.
So...whut?
In post 1305, Lucky2u wrote:2. his post about willingness to replace out seemed fake to me. If he does actually replace out, I'd confirm that slot as town.
Both of those statements are pretty bad, the second one is far worse.
...whut?In post 1305, Lucky2u wrote:3. I know scum bussing is a thing, but so is distancing. Is it guarenteed that someone bussed him? no. No matter how rare, always account for the opposite possibility.
So, basically, because 99% of the time something happens you have issue with me believing this is one of the 99%? I don't even understand what you're trying to argue here.
Do you think scum bussed or not?
You seem to agree that it is likely they did, so why is it strange for me to work from a theory that, yes, they bussed?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Also, it's not like Aptil has even been around to attempt a quickhammer even if you believed Smudger was at L-1.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Meh.
For me the ETL=town case is really the clearing of Zebe. It was not a strategically optimal time for scum to do that.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Meh.In post 1315, BBmolla wrote:ETL is pretty town for play in general for me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I am a'quiver with the vapors right now.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I should hope not, it's what I sound like.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I said I do sound like a southern belle - the illusion holds.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Well, it's always theoretically possible that Lucky is scum and Smudger is town - and, also, Zekrom, as his predecessor did, has opted to be generally anti-town thus far with his lurking.
It seems to be a new site standard of approved town play, if my other games are any indication.
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I don't understand what you're asking and I am suspicious you don't either.In post 1329, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
If smudger is town and lucky is scum, why are you assuming aptil is town with this statement? Who is Lucky's partner then?In post 1328, Thor665 wrote:It seems to be a new site standard of approved town play-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I wasn't suggesting you were stupid, I was suggesting it was a very badly written question.In post 1332, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Thor, it's impolite to imply I'm stupid just because you don't get what I'm asking you.
I wasn't doing any of this. What I was doing was discussing theoretical setups wherein the current vote situation didn't prove that Smudger was scum - him being scum with Lucky would not be one of those setups.In post 1332, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:First, you are discussing the possibility that smudger is town and lucky is scum. This leads me to believe that you don't believe smudger is partners with lucky. However, you follow this up by calling out zek for lurking,and then refer to it as a bad TOWN habit. So, I was asking why you are treating aptil/zek as town.
I also wasn't treating Zek as town, functionally my answer was pointing out, yet again, that the slot could be scum and that could be the failure for a quickhammer.
Sure...but there would be no point to discuss that with what i was talking about.In post 1332, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Except, isn't it also theoretically possible smudger is scum and lucky is town? But you don't talk about that.
I think I've even come out and listed Lucky as my top scumpartner candidate with Smudger.
I do not think this, and all my other posts over the course of the day and my stated reasons for voting Smudger show that I do not.In post 1332, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:So this makes me think you believe lucky is actually scummier than smudger
Make sense?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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That is a correct impression.In post 1334, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:p-edit: Yes. And anyway my questioning of you is moot in this case. I was under the impression you felt aptil was more likely town than smudger or lucky.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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- Joined: October 11, 2009
- Location: Venice, FL
Yeah, Lucky is working really hard to look scum, that is for sure.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I have no idea, I'm not you, but you are most assuredly doing it.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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With such a pro-town performance I'm amazed you're confused about me making the observation.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I never read his push on Boro, so I have no thoughts.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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- Location: Venice, FL