Open 550: Duck, Duck, Goose!

[Dr Pants]

Hey everybody, I'm Dr Pants. Just read through the thread, lot of activity to get through so if someone could provide a short synopsis of the game or a brief list of reads that would be super helpful. Since somebody's already at L-1 I'm gonna hold off on voting atm. If there's no motion within the next couple of days I'll put my vote in, but since I don't have a good feel for how the game has been going I'd like a bit of time to sort everything out.

That being said I agree with a lynch on kush. The fact that he completely misunderstood the power that every town has (and its a pretty straightforward power at that) seems like a scum-slip, and his defense against pressure is that he's still "figuring stuff out". Play should never be defended by claims that can not be proved either way.

Glad to join you guys, this should be fun!

[Dr Pants]

Your posts are strange, your arguments are founded on no evidence, and saying "I'm town I'm just not very good" doesn't make you town. Also just saying your an "innocent townie" isn't going to convince anyone that your town.

[Dr Pants]

also you should realize that i'm WAY TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM. Liek i'm so scummy that I do a 360 and I'm back to being townie again. And if you look at it that way, im the towniest guy in the game.

This is bullshit. Being super scummy in no way makes you town.

Maxous, maybe you do not understand the nature of my push, so let me make the nature of my push against kush transparently clear:

Kush dies today, or I replace out. Let me know which one is preferable and I will be happy to take action accordingly.

This is also bullshit. Why would you be so upset when kush is at L-1 with someone claiming intent? Do you expect to enjoy the company of every person you play the game with? Do you abandon games when things don't go your way?

[Dr Pants]

I think aegor is actually really town for that last quote.
How he says "either kush is out or I am." I don't see scum taking a stance like that. He is basically threatening leaving the game, forcing a replacement or modkill. It's generally considered bad form for scum to use this kind of stuff to help themselves. Aegor doesn't seem like he likes to play dirty.

Also what. It's also definitely bad for town to crybaby their way into getting what they want, cause it usually means they don't know what they're doing. Also the idea that Aegor is town because he doesn't like to play dirty, yet is playing dirty, is just frankly bizarre.

[Dr Pants]

@Everyone else: Do you think Aegor is just trying to distance himself from Kush? Could they be buddies? Is this a day 1 bus?

I'd put this down as highly unlikely. I think if it was planned distancing, it would come off as more strategic (ie calm) and less rage induced. Hell, if Aegor really wanted to bus Kush he should have just stayed quiet, seeing as how Kush was at L-1 with someone claiming intent.

[Dr Pants]

Also, lynching me is fine if it can get more interest into the game and the deadline is closely approaching.

That's a strange thing to say.....
I do agree with your thoughts on Aegor though, its always stupid when someone rage quits.

[Dr Pants]

I can understand your position Max, but all I can really say is that I was looking for a way to interject into the game, so I took the easiest route I saw. Maybe not the classiest thing to do, but I figured that if I started participating immediately rather than actively lurking I'd get the feel for the game quicker.

[Dr Pants]

This is all getting kind of confusing. The bickering between Kush and Bubba seems to be chest puffing more than scum hunting. The fact that Aegor quit is obnoxious, but it doesn't really get us anywhere. I would really appreciate it if either Dessew or Paschendale could give me a list of current reads, I'd ask Maxous as well but he just listed them anyways. I'm having a lot of trouble finding sorting out whether I'm reading someone as scum or if I just don't like how they play.

[Dr Pants]

I feel like the general play in this game is to piss people off. It seems to be working too.

Not_Mafia's posts are decreasing in content as the game gets further and further along.

I am not sure this deadline extension is a good thing. There seems to be a bunch of apathy already and a lynch is really something that we need. It is going to pick up the game no matter what. It will also give us something to look over and analyze. My offer still stands.

I'm not sure if its general play, but I agree that the thread is getting clogged with a lot of useless raging/trolling. I would love to see Kush go because it seems like hes the catalyst of it, but I know that would be a policy lynch so I'm hesitant to jump the gun on that.

Also you should never volunteer to get lynched. It makes absolutely no sense, if you have a scum read then vote that person out. Volunteering to get lynched is either a risky gambit if you are scum (implying that we wouldn't lynch you, but read you as town since you were ok with it) or just a dumb move by town. If you are town, then you are guaranteed town, and you know that about no one else. So why would you make that offer?

[Dr Pants]

If you're telling everyone to vote you, wouldn't that make wagon analysis useless anyways? Its an odd move to tell people to vote you out, then to use that as evidence. If you're town you are just offering yourself up to be miss-lynched, and I don't get what the advantage of that would be.

[Dr Pants]

We have a few days, and 2 people (3 including me) who just replaced in/are about to replace in. We have until April 4, that's almost a week. There's a lot less pressure than you think, and its better that we don't force a vote and get screwed over for it.
Also saying that scum would jump at the chance is useless, if you have invited the entire town to vote you. I agree with Not Mafia on this.

[Dr Pants]

@Luka: I'm gonna take a quick stab at this:
Post #366
You're putting up quite a case against NS, and some of the points you make have some merit. NS doesn't post often, and hasn't added much real information to the thread. That being said, I think your motivation as a whole is a lot like most people's motivation against Kush: you dislike the way he plays. You try to point out scum motivations behind his moves, but personally I think that your argument is a stretch. Not to say that NS comes off as town, but a lynch on NS would be a policy lynch at this point.

[Dr Pants]

The issue for me this game is that there are multiple people who play in a way that irritates me. Specifically Kush, but also Bubba and NS. However, simply the fact that I don't like how they play does not make them scum, and it would be a bad move to only target people who I dislike. I personally think your stance on NS is too strong, yes he has some scummy attributes, but nothing to the level of "immensely scum" that you seem to feel.
I like to base my lynches off of as much information as I can get. If we had to lynch tomorrow I would want Kush gone, but since we have almost a week I want to take my time and see if I can't piece together something better.

[Dr Pants]

@Kush: It doesn't matter what I ask you because you're active lurking like it's your job. But you keep paying attention, but not contributing anything.

This. Ever since Aegor quit Kush has said very little in the thread, which is odd given the volume of posts he had before.

[Dr Pants]

I suspect the real reason you don't like how I play is because I am the first person this game to call you up on your scummy posting.

Let's be honest here, NS is not the only person who doesn't like your play right now.

[Dr Pants]

Ok, here is very clearly and specifically what is wrong with your method:

1) You are unwilling to compromise your position. Even if you are sure you are right, you have to take into account that others in town have valid opinions as well, and its much easier to come to a solution if you listen rather than cramming your agenda down everyone's throat.

2) Aggressive questioning works. But you have spent a LOT more time in debate with everybody EXCEPT your target. You are asking us all to agree with you instead of directing your focus onto NS. The only information that can come from this is about you, not NS.

There is my problem with the way you play, and my answer to the question.

[Dr Pants]

After looking at Marquis ISO I agree with you. The hyper aggressive play from Luca does seem to run counter to how Marquis was playing, so that could be an over compensation. He does seem to think his argument holds weight, so I don't think its forced, but given Marquis's posts I think Luca comes in as a scum read.

[Dr Pants]

I do agree with Mist, mostly because Kush completely stopped posting and suddenly all of the pressure is elsewhere. I think that is somewhat suspicious.

[Dr Pants]

@Luka: I'm gonna take a quick stab at this:
Post #366
You're putting up quite a case against NS, and some of the points you make have some merit. NS doesn't post often, and hasn't added much real information to the thread. That being said, I think your motivation as a whole is a lot like most people's motivation against Kush: you dislike the way he plays. You try to point out scum motivations behind his moves, but personally I think that your argument is a stretch. Not to say that NS comes off as town, but a lynch on NS would be a policy lynch at this point.

what's the point of this exactly? have you given a read on NS.

Mostly I was trying to get inside of Luka's head, because while I agreed with him on somethings I found his argument as a whole to be a bit of a stretch, and I was wondering if he had any better reasoning to give.

NS is in a weird place for me. Typically I really dislike play that borderlines on lurking since it keeps information from town, and that's my biggest concern with NS. However, he hasn't said or done anything that comes out as specifically scummy. I would like for him to post more, but my read on him now is null.

I do agree with Mist, mostly because Kush completely stopped posting and suddenly all of the pressure is elsewhere. I think that is somewhat suspicious.

...why?

Kush was consistently involved (as a troll I will admit) for most of day 1. The fact that he has suddenly vanished from the thread is a departure from that, and any time a player has a sudden shift in their tone or playstyle (especially considering that Kush is at L-1) I find it suspicious.

[Dr Pants]

VOTE: Kush
I held off on voting cause I actually though Kush was already at L-1 and I didn't want to hammer with 3 days left. But since Kush is at L-2, I don't mind putting him at L-1 at all.

The fact that 2 people have already claimed they would be ok with being "martyrs" doesn't seem right. If you are town, then don't offer to be voted out. Its just stupid play.

[Dr Pants]

By anti-monkeyman do you mean she was playing the opposite way MM is playing, or that she was against MM (reading him as scum)?

[Dr Pants]

@Max thanks for the clarification.

VOTE: Maxous

I was once told that anyone who comments on the kill saying it was surprising or unexpected is scum. Why did you feel it necessary to comment on the kill?

That's terrible logic. Are you saying that trying to figure out the motivation behind a kill is scummy? I don't like this at all.

I also REALLY dislike that Luka jumped on board immediately as well. I didn't like his thought process day 1, and this certainly looks scummy to me.

VOTE: Luka

[Dr Pants]

So jumping on what I perceive to be a valid wagon makes me scum now? What a bullshit argument. If I was scum I would have been more hesitant of jumping on a wagon immediately, because I would have been more concerned with how it would look. I have been transparent as f*ck this game, I was the only one who actually engaged his brain before jumping on the Kush bandwagon as he was clearly Town despite his trolling, but you disregard all of that because you don't like my 'thought process' which is clearly motivated to find scum unlike yours which is passive and pretty much useless to the Town.

Also, Maxous was not 'trying to figure out motivation behind the kill' with that post, he just made a useless remark about how he was 'surprised' at the kill, as if we are supposed to read that as a townslip or something.

It doesn't wash.

Perhaps you were right about Kush, but that doesn't mean you have good arguments. I think your day one arguments about NS were a stretch. Considering this, and seeing as how you were voting NS right away day 2, I think its really suspicious that you jumped on a new wagon so quickly. And your reasoning is this:

I find Maxous' reaction fake and his comment linking MM to Mist strange to say the least, it seems like something scum could have planned during the night to set the wheels in motion for another mis-lynch.

Just my opinion, but I think if scum had planned to set up a link to MM there would be a better argument for it. Isn't it interesting too that Maxous makes his observation, and then the very first person to call him out as scum is MM? Easily could be a case of OMGUS, but its also interesting how quickly people jumped on that one comment.

In short, you are either scum or you have massive tunnel vision.

[Dr Pants]

Also Luka, if you think scum team has both NS and Maxous, explain this.

I'll just say that in my experience, someone commenting on the nightkill is, more often than not, mafia.

Why would NS try to bus Maxous at the very beginning of day 2?

[Dr Pants]

Dr Pants,

1) You contradict yourself by saying I am tunneling NS, then slating me for switching my vote to Maxous
2) You keep saying my arguments are a stretch, even though I have provided plenty of evidence for all of them. You, however, have not provided any argument all game, other than to continually rubbish my arguments

Did you miss the point entirely? Dude you went after NS hard day 1. Really hard, like we get that you think hes scum. So cool, you start day 2 by voting for him, maybe I disagree with it but you don't come off as scum for that. But instead of pushing NS you changed your mind really quickly. Like the instance that someone said "oh lookie here I think this was a scum slip". Okay buddy so there's your plenty of evidence?

Answer me this: If you really think that both NS and Max are scum why would NS side against Maxous?

In short I just don't understand how you can make the arguments you are making as town. Because all of your current targets are easy targets: NS for the quickhammer, Maxous for asking about NK, Not Mafia for playing too cautiously. I'm not saying I have all of them down as super town reads, but to me it looks like you are trying to get easy kills, and that is scummy.

[Dr Pants]

Why wouldn't NS side against Maxous? Since when did scum not bus? It's a very common occurrence, and he was hardly pushing his lynch either was he, his post was little more than a prod dodge, and it would have looked even more dodgy if he didn't mention Maxous seeing as he was the hot topic at the time of his posting.

You say NS is an easy target after the quickhammer, when I clearly targeted him way before that when he wasn't an easy target, at a time when he hadn't received a single vote and no-one wanted to hear an argument against him, so stop making stuff up. Not_Mafia is also not an 'easy target' as everyone seems to inexplicably read him as town (when I'm 99.9% sure he is scum). I could just as easily say you are jumping on the easy target in voting for me after I switched wagons.

Try using some common sense before wasting my time with your nonsense.

Let's examine who is using common sense:

You are saying that as a scum team, Maxous and NS first planned to set up MM.

I find Maxous' reaction fake and his comment linking MM to Mist strange to say the least, it seems like something scum could have planned during the night to set the wheels in motion for another mis-lynch.

Then, two posts after doing so, they changed their mind and now its bus time. Just no.

Also you are not an "easy" target. You have high activity in the game, you are aggressive, and most people think you are town. You said day 1 that

If Kush flips Town this guy seriously has to be looked at.

then abandoned your pressure on NS only to jump onto someone who had a wagon starting for them. That's going after easy targets.

[Dr Pants]

Let's lynch him today, if he flips town I will self-vote tomorrow, that's how sure I am he is scum.

BS. If you lynch him and he flips town you'll move on to another crazy theory, not blindly give yourself up. And I think I've been pretty clear about this: town should NEVER offer themselves up for a vote.

[Dr Pants]

The timing and reasons only matter if you flip town. And I don't think you will.

Luca, understand this: aggressive play is only town friendly if you focus correctly. And its possible to read someone as town or scum because their focus is wrong. You claim to be reading 3 people as scum, yet you are interacting with them the least out of anybody in town. It seems like you are more focused on convincing town then questioning your reads. That kind of misdirected focus is scummy, because you are more focused on your own plan and agenda than working with the rest us.

[Dr Pants]

Agreed. This game is progressively getting more and more absurd, not in a fun way, more like a way.

[Dr Pants]

I agree with Maxous on this, it doesn't look like a scum slip to me.
I am still reading Luka as scum, but it isn't a bad idea to spread the pressure around a bit, the more information we get the better.

Maxous, who are your current scum reads? You haven't been in the thread for a couple days, do you see anything that the rest of us might have missed?

[Dr Pants]

... I actually completely forgot about Aegor's replacement. And if he ends up abandoning the game as well, then having yet another person take his spot would be pretty annoying.

[Dr Pants]

If you don't like my scumhunting how about you do some yourself? All you and Dr Pants have done since I joined this game is slate my arguments without putting forth any cases of your own.

Reading you as scum isn't a case of my own? Yeah my case may be about the way you are constructing and presenting your "arguments", but its still a case.

[Dr Pants]

What are you on about? Why would I need provoking to make an observational comment such as that? And what would be the scum-motivation behind that comment?

The fact I make comments without provocation (unlike you, who only posts in defence) points to me being Town as opposed to scum.

Isn't this exactly why you were targeting Maxous earlier today? So when someone else makes a comment speculating on scum motivation they are scum, but when you do it its an "observational comment".

[Dr Pants]

Your reads seem very vanilla. Also, I'm curious as to why you see NS as scum for low post count when he has more posts than everybody except Not Mafia, Luca, and Monkey Man. Also you're claiming Bubba is town because you like his "style"? I don't know what that means.

Why is lack of contribution a problem for NS but not for Bubba?

[Dr Pants]

Let's be clear here, my problem with Reinoe's argument was that it didn't seem like he was contributing anything new. I also dislike how defensive he's been right out of the gate.
Since he took over for someone who had a total of two posts I'll give him a bit of slack but I don't like what I'm seeing initially.

[Dr Pants]

Can I ask for clarification? What did I ignore about who?

I do agree that the experienced argument is BS, its basically just a glorified policy lynch.

[Dr Pants]

By which I mean Maxous's "inexperienced players do x" comment.

[Dr Pants]

@drpants: how about i re-phrase my reason to "from what i have seen of luca's play i don't feel like he would be good enough to fake his behaviour as scum, he is prolly just town"

I dunno, I think upset/butthurt play can come from both town and scum so I don't really see that as a tell.

This has me interested though:

I'm increasingly thinking MM/Bubba/Reinoe soooo wagon on one or all of those please

i'm leaning monkeyman not being scum currently but the other 2 prolly are yes.

So both you and NM think that their are no scum on the Luca wagon, and that Luca is town? Explain this to me a bit, it seems a little counter intuitive.

[Dr Pants]

I would avoid purposely misquoting Reinoe, I know you're new and just trying to emphasize a point but its pretty poor taste, even if its not outright illegal.

[Dr Pants]

Yeah NM, to be fair to Reinoe, he did join and got put under fire immediately. There's a possibility that all the attention on him is novelty and he just doesn't have a good enough feel of the thread yet.

[Dr Pants]

I think we have just established it is you who is lying, not me.

In what way is NS not lurking? He has frequently been posting elsewhere while not posting in this game, and whenever he does post it is pure irrelevant fluff, or a wagon jump without explanation.

Fyi, a players activity/lack of in any games that are currently on going should not be talked about or used as evidence. Different games often require different play, which makes that accusation a cheap shot.

Now game things.

Here's what's getting my attention right now:

Reinoe's arrival seems oddly convenient. We had basically reached a stand still as a town, and a couple people who were not engaged when luca was under fire went after Reinoe right out of the gate. I will admit that if Reinoe had been in the game longer I would find some of the things he said suspicious, but at the same time the fact that Freak's absence went unnoticed makes me think that the attention on Reinoe right now is either fabricated or novelty.

Its interesting that NM and Maxous read the same scum team, which included no one on the Luca wagon, while reading Luka as town. If Luka gets lynched and flips scum then I'll be reading NM and Maxous hard for this.

[Dr Pants]

Fairly confident that Luca and Pasch are of the same alignment.

Since you're reading Luca as scum, does this mean you think Pasche is hard bussing? Anything about Pasche's game in particular that makes you think this, or is it just a gut feeling?

[Dr Pants]

I don't get it. Obviously you think NS is town, and that bubba is scum, but your rational seems to be that bubba is scum by association because hes agreeing with luca and not you.

[Dr Pants]

Its interesting that NM and Maxous read the same scum team, which included no one on the Luca wagon, while reading Luka as town. If Luka gets lynched and flips scum then I'll be reading NM and Maxous hard for this.

And asking for a clarification: what do you want to say with your fourth paragraph?

I could be looking too into this, but it seemed to me like NM and Maxous were very eager to jump on Reinoe. Not suspicious in its own right, but the fact that they both claimed to think Luca is scum and present identical scum teams that contain no one on the Luca train is. It means that if Luca flips scum, then they can point to their scum claims because they weren't on the wagon. If they actually think Luca is town then their scum team makes no sense because then the scum team would be deliberately avoiding a mislynch.

[Dr Pants]

I do not like that it is this silent this close to deadline.

[Dr Pants]

If Luka gets lynched and flips scum

he won't.
Luca Blight (4): Dr Pants, Paschendale, Nobody Special, Dessew
fist 2 are obv-town, guess ns could be scum there, dessew is a town-read from very early but i haven't paid much attention to lately. i should prob re-check

Then level with us. What do you think is going on? And who is a good lynch?

[Dr Pants]

Dude why the hell you calling out TCold? Hes been fine as a mod so far

[Dr Pants]

If Luka gets lynched and flips scum

he won't.
Luca Blight (4): Dr Pants, Paschendale, Nobody Special, Dessew
fist 2 are obv-town, guess ns could be scum there, dessew is a town-read from very early but i haven't paid much attention to lately. i should prob re-check

Then level with us. What do you think is going on? And who is a good lynch?

eep my mistake i replied before reading further and seeing the answer to this, sorry.

[Dr Pants]

Dr. Pants: I reviewed your OOZES AND SLIMES NEWBIE 1481.
You made a mention of Bulbazak being dangerous because of his competence and by luck he turned out to be scum vs shinobi being bad town. There are similarities between kush' erratic play and shinobi's erratic play. How do you determine between erratic town vs flailing scum? Do you think there is scum flying under the radar this game?

Day 1 that game I tunneled two people hard and basically got lucky while pushing a policy lynch. I'm trying to play more self aware this game.

As far as "scum flying under the radar", if you just mean based on activity then its possible, but the people who are lurking (Bubba mostly) are drawing attention for it so its not really "under the radar".

[Dr Pants]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdhhQhqi_AE

[Dr Pants]

I want to see the flip on this one. Not sure about my thoughts till then.

[Dr Pants]

From the Luca wagon, NS looks by far the most shady. It is, however, entirely possibly that there were no scum on the wagon. The lack of any significant counterwagon makes this seem unlikely, though. There was probably at least one scum on the Luca wagon, and NS is the most likely candidate.

Lets do a quick VCA:

kushm4sta (7): Freak, Paschendale, bubbajack8, Not_Mafia, Mist7676, Dr Pants, Nobody Special

Freak (2)

: Maxous, MonkeyMan

MonkeyMan (1)

: Dessew

Nobody Special (1)

: Luca Blight

Not Voting: kushm4sta

Luca Blight (6)

:

Dr Pants, Paschendale, Nobody Special, Dessew, MonkeyMan, Not_Mafia

reinoe (1)

: Maxous

Not_Mafia (1)

: reinoe

MonkeyMan (1)

: Luca Blight

Nobody Special (1)

: bubbajack8

People on both wagons: Me, Paschendale, NS, Not_Mafia
People on one wagon: Freak/Reinoe, Bubbajack, MonkeyMan, Dessew
People who avoided both wagons: Maxous

If no scum were on Luca then Maxous, Reinoe, and Bubba are all scum. I just don't see it, Maxous has been laying pretty hard into Reinoe.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Speaking of Reinoe:

maxous
probably town.

post 416 is the only thing that really stood out to me where he criticizes mist7676. From a town perspective if someone wants to wait for a hammer then they should wait for a hammer.

I also don't like how he's trying to speculate on the motivations for the kill.


luca blight

ugh. scum as fuck

slip sliding all over the place. I'm going to try and give him the benefit of the doubt as just frustrated town though because I've seen townies self-destruct under pressure.

Talk to me about this. I can understand why you would change your stance on Maxous given that he's pressuring you, though your reaction seems mostly like OMGUS.

But, if Luca was "scum as fuck" why did you never put a vote on him?

[Dr Pants]

Who do you think is scum?

[Dr Pants]

Whom do you think is the most dangerous player this game if they're scum? I say this because it seems likely that scum players are not going to have many, if any, traditional "scum slips".

As I said before, I pushed a policy lynch that game and got lucky. It may not be too harmful to think that way day 1, but later in the game getting rid of people because they would be dangerous as scum is stupid. Game skill is not alignment indicative.

[Dr Pants]

We need more activity. Silence isn't going to get us anywhere productive

[Dr Pants]

Now that Luca has flipped town what are your thoughts on NS and NM's timing and reasons for voting Luca?

Personally I find NS impossible to read.

NS isn't impossible to read. Hes just more subtle than most. I can talk all over about why NS and NM shouldn't have voted for luca, but I was pushing for luca too so I can hardly blame them.

However, I'm not liking what I'm getting from Paschendale right now. His content with Luca at the end of yesterday looks like taunting right now, and his flip flop on NS is just plain bad.

Overall I'm not liking what I see from MM, NM, and Pasche right now.

[Dr Pants]

@dr.pants: why did you completely blow off the question is #757...?

Personally I think its a bad way to think about a lynch. I would agree with what N_M posted though, what would mess me up the most would be if my town reads ended up being scum. My biggest town reads right now are you and Dessew. But like I said, its a bad way to determine a lynch because its basically reverse policy lynching.

[Dr Pants]

Well, this making a case turned out to be much less epic than I predicted. I'll tell who's scum tomorrow.

Tomorrow IRL or in game? Cause if you've got a good theory I'd like to hear it today.

[Dr Pants]

I'm looking back on Bubba's day 1 and I'm not sure I see it.

.....................................

Bubba definitely merits some suspicion.

So which is it?

[Dr Pants]

Ok no. Bubba isn't scum, no way a wagon on him starts that quickly organically.

[Dr Pants]

Its not the votes. Its that through posts 781-784, four different people each come to the conclusion that bubba is either scum or fishy. Your argument and Max's at least make sense in context, but the fact that NM jumped on board and then Reinoe recommends "everyone who is town" (:facepalm:) to look at his newly found discovery looks pretty shady.

I don't think I have ever seen 4 town players all come to the same consensus about someone who isnt conf-scum within 4 posts of each other.

[Dr Pants]

He tunneled NS pretty hard yesterday. Also even though he was after Marquis day 1 he wasn't on the Luca wagon. You say he hasn't done enough to help, but "doing a lot" hasn't actually helped us at all so far.

[Dr Pants]

He tunneled NS pretty hard yesterday. Also even though he was after Marquis day 1 he wasn't on the Luca wagon. You say he hasn't done enough to help, but "doing a lot" hasn't actually helped us at all so far.

I know. That's exactly what I said in my criticism of him. He has certainly not been inactive until today, but his efforts resulted in two mislynches. He successfully convinced the town to vote for his suspects, and they both flipped town.

You aren't getting it. Yeah he pushed for Marquis day 1 but he didn't push for Luca at all day 2. So how is that mislynch his effort?

[Dr Pants]

You say he hasn't done enough to help, but "doing a lot" hasn't actually helped us at all so far.

what.

I mean that raw level of activity doesn't equal level of helpfulness.
Pointing out as well that I'm not trying to defend Bubba because I think he's super town. I'm just really skeptical of the push because of how quickly people jumped on it.

Because of this actually, I'm pretty sure that at least one of the 4 who jumped on the wagon is scum.
I've been town reading Maxous the whole game, and his reasons behind the push seem sensible.
While I disagree with the responses I've been getting from Pasche, his thought process seems genuine, and has been on the level for most of the game.

I have to conclude then that at least one of Reinoe and Not Mafia is scum.

While I'm not a fan of a lot of things Reinoe has said, he's giving off a lot of newbie vibes, not necessarily scum vibes. That said I do think he's suspicious, but less suspicious than Not Mafia.
I haven't been a fan of Not Mafia's play over the last two days. The fact that hes voting Bubba but attacking NS doesn't sit well with me, and his bickering with NS is just thread clogging and useless.

VOTE: Not Mafia

[Dr Pants]

Dr. Pants- he's not commenting on bubba's lack of activity and has in fact defended bubba's lack of activity. He's also been on both mislynch wagons. He says he's not defending bubba but then uses some strange logic to vote for one of the two people who have been pushing for a bubba lynch all game.

So I'm defending Bubba without commenting on it.

Also it doesn't matter who has wanted Bubba out when. What matters is if Bubba turns scum.
You know who else was on both mislynch wagons? Paschendale and Not Mafia. So excuse me if I doubt this wagon.

[Dr Pants]

indeed

[Dr Pants]

Mostly was talking about the whole nonsense between you and NS about your early game post where you sarcastically listed yourself as a scum read. I guess attacking isn't the right word, its more that you're "down for a Bubba lynch" but aren't really talking to him or about him, instead getting into a useless discussion with NS.

[Dr Pants]

@ Not Mafia: fair enough i guess, but for me this is a PoE vote as well. Although given Reinoe's last few posts he's moving up the scummy scale. I think I'll revisit this tomorrow, still pretty sure my general theory is correct though

[Dr Pants]

lack of posting is going to be the death of this town

[Dr Pants]

@ mod: you have reinoe and NM voting twice

[Dr Pants]

I'm not happy about this quick lynch.

[Dr Pants]

So NS, the quickhammer?

It was harldy a quickhammer. Bubba was totally scum, even if his Role PM said otherwise. He never would've been nightkilled, and town is actually better off with him gone.

Except now we've gone 3 mislynches in a row, and you quick hammered the last 2.

I'd say NS looks the worst to me right now, but I also agree with dessew that reinoe's stuff yesterday (timing, rational, etc) looks pretty bad.

[Dr Pants]

Well, let's talk about the votes on Luca and see if we can find scum on the wagon.

Nobody Special's vote looked extremely reactionary. They never gave particularly strong reasons and never provided examples or demonstrated why Luca's actions were scum-motivated. It looked like it stemmed more from argument than genuine suspicion. NS also was willing to jump off the wagon when Luca offered a single point against Not_Mafia. This was very strange as NS never gave any indication of changing their mind about Luca's alignment. I don't really see NS trying to suss out anyone's alignment, but rather trying to punish people for opposing them. NS's vote looks the most duplicitous.

From the Luca wagon, NS looks by far the most shady. It is, however, entirely possibly that there were no scum on the wagon. The lack of any significant counterwagon makes this seem unlikely, though. There was probably at least one scum on the Luca wagon, and NS is the most likely candidate.

VOTE: Nobody Special

So this happens, you backtrack completely on it, then NS quickhammers. Instead of looking back at this and having any suspicion about, you soft-defend him and draft up this huge AtE argument where you blast Dessew and N_M for coasting (???) and some how NS escapes this.

[Dr Pants]

Based on just the Luca wagon, at the beginning of day 3, I suspected NS. The totality of NS's play leans more town. I retracted my vote after considering the whole play and not just one specific moment.

That's stupid. You're essentially ignoring the most active and important aspects of NS's play because you think his fluff has been good. A good sauce does not make a good steak.

If scum were doing worse, if we had lynched one or two of them, then I could see NS' reckless moves as more scum-motivated, since he would be trying to win with far worse odds. But the scum are all still alive. They are clearly playing a careful game, and I don't think that a team that is playing that way would fail to rein in NS' actions. It just doesn't fit.

All we know about scum's play is their night game, and careful play at night is based on the setup, not necessarily the style of the players. We no nothing about how careful/careless they are being during the day.

[Dr Pants]

See above. It was emotion that lead me to vote for NS. It is analysis that leads me towards Dessew and NM now. And as above, what exactly would you have liked to say then that you can't say now?

Also, I don't understand this question, so explain it a bit.

[Dr Pants]

You know what I really dislike? The fact that no one posts on this game. Its really not helping, and makes this game stagnant.

God damn it you all need to post more!!!!!!!!

[Dr Pants]

Then

I dare you to vote me

. I'm pretty sure I won't get quicklynched. Let's see if you dare to make it either you or me. BTW, you still haven't adressed this being suspicious but not scum matter and you haven't answered my question about NS's comment on Luca's and Pasch's alignment.

Dare to vote me: reinoe

No one should vote anyone till we've reached a group consensus. Use your head Dessew, with three scum left if a single vote gets placed by town on another town we basically auto lose.

[Dr Pants]

Alright after the last couple of days I've decided to put together a new reads list.

Town

Maxous: The only scummy thing Maxous has done has been the push on Bubba. However, he was the one who started that wagon, and as a result the timing and rational behind his push were pretty reasonable. Additionally, he's been the only player who hasn't thrown red flags. I don't think commentary on NK's is a scum thing, and that's been the only real accusation people have had against him so far.

Null

Dessew: Dessew was a town read for me basically the entire game. What's getting at me is his hard tunneling of Reinoe the last day. I agree with a lot of the things he has said, but Reinoe's responses seem reasonable and Dessew's getting more and more crazy with his push. Daring Reinoe to engage in a 1v1 was just awful, since we don't have the luxury of being able to safely place votes until we've decided on the lynch.

Paschendale: Also an early town read of mine. He's been looking scummier since day 2 started, his push on Bubba combined with his defense of NS's play, and his push against Dessew and NM look really oddly placed.

Reinoe: I have no idea how to read Reinoe. On one hand, I think a lot of the criticism's Dessew had about Reinoe's hesitancy on Bubba (the unvote, the NS vote, the revote) are pretty legitimate. On the other hand, Reinoe's responses have been pretty reasonable and my criticisms of his play might come down to experience.

Scum

Not Mafia: His push on Bubba seemed very opportunistic. He's been on all three wagons, but doesn't have that bit of town cred that Paschendale does. Additionally, while he has a high post count, many of his posts are only a couple sentences. I haven't seen a well thought out argument or list of reads from him the entire game. Additionally a lot of his posts are antagonistic, and it comes off looking like hes trying to push people into reacting poorly.

Nobody Special: His style of play is so minimal that all I can judge NS on is his votes. The fact that he's quick lynched twice seems like he's trying to push wagons out the door before we get to hear from people who are at L-1, and this post in particular is really troubling:

It was harldy a quickhammer. Bubba was totally scum, even if his Role PM said otherwise. He never would've been nightkilled, and town is actually better off with him gone.

This might be an ok to say day 1 or day 2, but in LYLO day 3 this is not an ok way to think about the game.

[Dr Pants]

Dessew, your arguments make sense, but you're taking it farther than your evidence allows.
You've been really hounding on this particular statement:

I wasn't arguing that bubba was scum, I was arguing that bubba was suspicious. My N_S vote was completely independent of whatever Bubba's vote is/was.

Yeah this is worded pretty poorly but its not that confusing. It looks like Reinoe is trying to distinguish different "tiers" of scumminess. In fact, my position on Reinoe right now is basically suspicious but not necessarily scummy. As far as your percentages argument goes, remember that only can make that argument, so when you say 75% sure its Reinoe, you really aren't presenting anything for the rest of us.

Take a brake from the Reinoe tunnel for a second because I want to hear some things from you that you haven't talked about yet:

What do you think about Paschendale's defense of NS?
What do you think about NS's absence from the thread today?
And for the rest of us, why did you think a 1v1 vs Reinoe was a good/safe idea?

[Dr Pants]

Here's the deal:

It's pretty likely that Reinoe and Dessew aren't both scum, the last day basically confirms this. But you could both be town, leaving Pasche, NM, and NS as the scum team. Which means that even if I put the two of you side by side and vote the one who I think is more likely scum, there's a chance I'm wrong either way.

It's an unnecessary risk. I'd rather vote out one of my scum reads (NM and NS) than gamble on Reinoe or Dessew.

[Dr Pants]

But:

People on Bubba wagon: Max, Pasche, Reinoe, NM

People who think Dessew is scum: Max Pasche, Reinoe, NM

Hence the hesitancy.

[Dr Pants]

Do you think it impossible or unlikely that a) the Bubba wagon was all town, or b) scum are willing to bus one of their own today, and scum who voted for Bubba are also supporting lynching Dessew?

there are seven of us now. and there were five of us on bubba. So the bubba wagon isn't all town.

[Dr Pants]

if dessew is scum then unless maxous and NS are the other two its a partial bus. I just think its a bad idea right now, when there are others who are more likely scum. As in NS.

[Dr Pants]

I agree with Max that both wagons look bad.

If they're both town, we've lost. Its really unlikely both are scum. So nobody should vote for either of them, if one of them is scum they can't quickhammer without a vote on one of the other two. Instead of trying to murk out whether Dessew or Reinoe is scum we should instead look at the more obvious choices. Personally, I want NS out today.

[Dr Pants]

if I had to pick between Reinoe and Dessew I'd probably lynch Dessew at this point. That said, I think lynching either is a worse idea than lynching NS.

[Dr Pants]

VOTE: Nobody Special

[Dr Pants]

we were scum team, GG everybody

[Dr Pants]

that makes sense, still those 2 minutes... that was tense as hell. I was freaking out in the scum QT

[Dr Pants]

we'll post the scum qt when the game officially ends. its pretty good, day talk was way OP. we planned out basically everything

[Dr Pants]

yeah the PGO mechanic was actually pretty easy to work with, especially since you can stay alive as a town read without people suspecting you.

The fact that day 1 Dritan was absent, and day 2 freak was absent, meant there were only 2 scum talking for most of the first 2 days. it made it really easy to play off town v town.

[Dr Pants]

Modding was fine, i think the only issue was lack of day counter in the middle of the game and that got fixed pretty fast. maybe prodding sooner? we did have something like 6 replacements though. But yeah, good job and thanks for modding!

Also man, the entire last day of this game was awesome.

[Dr Pants]

haha and we were considering both max and dessew pretty heavily night 1. we could have really screwed ourselves

[Dr Pants]

agreed. if either of you ever want to do a hydra i would be super down

[Dr Pants]

also max and dessew, man i hope to play with you again, you guys were consistently the people i was paranoid as hell about.

[Dr Pants]

also i think a cool twist might be switching one PGO to serial killer. that way town has more killing power, but the serial killer runs the risk of killing themselves if their read is bad