Open 556: Fire and Ice (Over)

[Moonlight]

Are you saying that your behavior deserves to be treated like like obvtown?

Pretty much.

When I am Town, I am fucking obvious. Anyone who's seen me play scum can tell the difference *looks at Boro's direction*. In meatworld Mafia, friends of mine could tell in

seconds

by my body language. I'm the kind of guy that wears his heart on his sleeve, for better or worse.

You said there are "too many scummy players this game" and that some of them have to be VIs. That's not the way I treat the game. You're looking at behavioral patterns, and you're deciding whether they belong to what you've established as "the norm". Anyone who doesn't belong there is either scum or VI.

And while that may work to some extent, it fails to look at the big picture. This game is not rocket science. It pits an informed minority versus an uninformed majority (or in the case of this setup, two semi-informed minorities versus an uninformed majority). Everything and anything goes, the difference is the wincon and what is being done to achieve it. There are no "VIs", there never were.

Not once have you explained why any of your reads are what they are. I know nothing about the way you think, besides noticing that it's very black & white.

So entertain me and explain how exactly you're scumreading those you're scumreading. What is giving you a gut scumread on me? You decided I'm being a hypocrite because I treat my AtE and Baezu's differently. Apples and oranges. Tricks used AtE too, and he flipped Town. That tells us that AtE is not a tell, what I'm looking at is the

timing

when they're used.

[Moonlight]

Just to reiterate: I am scumreading Baezu because of the timing on her vote on me and the reasoning she used. Baezu/reinoe fits like a glove.

I can see scum motivation behind reinoe's posts in how quickly he abandoned his "gut townread" on Baezu when he got to D2. He decided his best available move is to bus, and I would have probably done the same. =)

[Moonlight]

That's a paradox. Everyone, Town or not, is obvtown to themselves, so someone claiming Town is not a tell whatsoever.

I believe reinoe read through while keeping in mind that Baezu is his buddy.

In 882, he says about Baezu:

I don't like the overall reads list because it's wildly inaccurate but my gut says town motivated right up until the end. He starts making associative tells without a flip, and that's not good.

Notice the ambiguity; he is on the fence on Baezu, because he is not aware of how Baezu is faring in the last few pages. He doesn't know if the optimal move is to work with her or bus her yet.

But as soon as D2 starts, whoo boy.

huh. I was starting to lean scum on baezu but then he makes a vote I support. It could be scum hunting scum. His vote is good, but his reason is shit. The people who were conf-town in my book were The Ascended and NotMafia.

Notice the change? No longer fence sitting, he knows what the optimal move is. He is only examining "scum hunting scum", because Baezu is already confirmed scum to him.

[Moonlight]

I'll say it again just to annoy Boro: I'm obviously Town. Problem? Too bad.

[Moonlight]

I agree with the above, but I'm a bit more optimistic. It is possible to win this without scum interfering, we "just" need to all agree on our scumreads, be right and get a good protection against a NK or hope both teams target the same player.

A slim chance, but I still hope. >_>

Anyway, if we don't lynch and we get 2 dead Townies in the night, that's a 4:2:2 so Town is still not a majority, only half. We have to lynch scum today, and I strongly believe in Baezu/rinoe as a team.

[Moonlight]

"The above" referred to Finglove's post. I somehow didn't get a notification that there were newer replies. Huh.

And yeah Boro, I know, that's my point: my actions in this game should be glaringly obvious, because I have nothing to hide. I can scream I'm Town and that's just noise, not a towntell or a scumtell. I just hate how badly I've been scumread first by Baezu based on

one

post, and now by reinoe by my interaction with

one

player. Judge my whole play, not the parts of it that suit the color of the blinders you have on. >_>

[Moonlight]

@Baezu

Very rarely suggested by Town? I didn't know, I guess that means I'm special. <3

And well done, you know there's a doc alive so "if X is alive tomorrow, he is scum" arguments are nonsense and you keep using them.

I accept your challenge. I will fully understand if I get lynched tomorrow if you flip Town and that's a risk I'm willing to take. I will probably deserve it if I mislynch twice in a row anyway, so yeah.

@idk

There are 5 votes on her and getting that many people to move them is somewhat time-consuming for what is a close-to-definite scum pair in my head. Any chance you'd be willing to hammer her? She has claimed already, and I will suffer the shitstorm if she flips Town.

PEdit: We could wait for the 4 Heads replacement, but I'm fine with a result right here and now. *braces himself*

[Moonlight]

If she flips scum and I die tonight, please lynch reinoe next, I'm confident enough about that pair. Not as much about the other one, NS/4 Heads is a wild PoE guess that I keep doubting because no one is a scumhunting god and I'm trying to pin both teams on D2 without scum flips.

PEdit: Well, she claimed, it's not as if we quicklynched her. =/

[Moonlight]

You

want to hear from 4 Heads. I am okay with hearing from that slot now, I'm also okay with hearing from it on D3. Why does that slot matter to you so much?

[Moonlight]

... Did I get the wrong B?

There was so much correlation. The timing fit. She has to be scum or I've fucked up beyond repair and I'll be lynched tomorrow. =/

Baezu, I'll definitely have stuff to say in the postgame, I hope to see you there.

[Moonlight]

Does that mean you're scum? Or are you being sarcastic? Or is your respect unrelated to how accurate my read is? I'm confused.

If Baezu flips Town, I was right to think Boro shifted the attention from Zeph's slot to her, but of course no one will trust me at that point. And even if I get sheeped, a victory will still be unlikely.

[Moonlight]

So I just woke up and clicked on my bookmark of this page... and...

I can't believe how wrong I've been in this game. I'm not even sure if I want to resist my lynch. I don't have anything to say, I've just been... wrong. You can either choose to believe me, or choose not to.

@reinoe: I believe that BoroPhil was shot because the other scum team (read as: the one you're not a part of) is trying to shoot your team. You need to lynch one of them (because my guess is they'll shoot you next), and I'm not one of them.

Are you sure it's in your best interest to lynch me?

[Moonlight]

On the other hand, most of my scumread on reinoe results from Zeph's play. My D2 vote on him wasn't an "I want him lynched now" vote, I wanted a wagon on him first to see if someone would defend him, and both people that did have flipped Town. So if he's scum, his buddy is pretty smart and kept quiet... or reinoe's Town.

Where do I even go from here? =/

[Moonlight]

I owe it to myself to try my best until the end, so here goes: I don't agree with the above. I'm not confident either, but I refuse to completely give up on our only means to get scum.

I am also going to assume the following are true:

1) The only reason someone wouldn't vote is to avoid being on the same wagon as their scum buddy.

2) From 1), Zeph/reinoe has to be scum with either me (which I know to not be true, but I won't blame anyone if they don't believe me), 4 Heads/Rach or Finglove.

Solution: Lynch reinoe, worry about his buddy tomorrow if still alive. Alternatively, don't believe a word I say and lynch me.

(What worries me most is that 1) might be false. What I consider common sense might not be so common.)

[Moonlight]

It's not "giving up on our only means to get scum", it's giving scum more chance to kill each other whilst avoiding the risk of lynching one of our own. Suppose we do lynch Reinoe, as one of the more obvious lynch-targets today, and he flips scum. Then, if his buddy hits town and the other scumteam hits the buddy it's game over. Is that likely? Well,

the buddy is (on a random basis) more likely to hit town than scum

, whilst the other scum-team can take advantage of the flip, plus their own identities, to narrow down their range of targets quite dramatically. You really want to go through with a plan where, even if we get this lynch right, we stand a good chance to be endgamed tomorrow morning? Count me out.

The bold part is where I disagree. Why are you assuming a random basis? If we lynch scum today, the scum whose buddy got lynched will try to NK the other scum team. He won't pick someone randomly, we all have reads on each other. Sure, many of them have been wrong, but the NKs so far don't seem random at all.

[Moonlight]

I agree with your analysis of the situation and it's a matter of what we want to do: go for a high risk, high reward tactic or a safer one with a lower pay-off.

I'm simply not a fan of moderation in desperate situations. There's no right or wrong here I guess, just preference.

[Moonlight]

Are you blaming me for thinking that a Townie wouldn't refuse to vote when they have scumreads? Seriously?

Fine, lynch me and be prepared to look silly after the flip. "Only scum recommend Town blocks" my ass. Every game I've won as Town has been won through one that wasn't defined, they formed naturally. I was merely trying to give this game what it lacked: Town working together. It's how games are won, you know.

If Baezu had taken the time to work with me when I examined that she could be Town and Boro could be scum instead, I would have considered there could be Town motivation in her posts. Misguided given Boro's flip, but my point stands: we are not doing what we should be doing.

Plus, the NKs are pretty much designed to make me look bad. Do you honestly think that I would have put myself in this position as scum? Yes, WIFOM and all, but come the fuck on.

[Moonlight]

I'm actually considering self-voting. I'm starting to want to disprove reinoe more than I care about winning this. Fantastic.

[Moonlight]

Correction near the end there..."good town players" don't do that crap. Especially not when they're repeatedly told that it doesn't mean anything without flips.

Aaah, now we're talking. When did you catch me saying I consider myself good?

I used what makes the difference in this setup. Unlike other setups, what separates Town and scum is the knowledge of the alignment of ONE more person, not the whole list of players. So excuse me for trying to apply associative tells on a slot that I can't possibly see Town motivation behind. If it makes me bad, so be it. It's what I considered the right thing to do.

And I'm going to do it now too: I said that your buddy is either smart, or you're Town. I completely forgot that 4 Heads were absent on D2, and they were on Tricks' wagon too. It fits.

But too little too late, I don't expect to convince enough people and I'm surprised I'm still being townread by some to be honest. =/

[Moonlight]

We're kind of getting out of topic, but I don't know if I have any skill, or how good or bad I am. I don't know if that's humility or simple lack of self-awareness, but it is what it is. >_<

Since you're in a mood for asking for clarifications, how about you explain what's been bothering me in this game since late D1: give me a good guess of how a Townie abstains from voting when they have scumreads and when it's not their first game. I'm not asking you to read your predecessor's mind, just find something that makes me go "Hmm, if I squint my eyes and look at reinoe a certain way, he

could

be Town.".

[Moonlight]

Everyone does everything for a reason. I can justify my "idiocy" or whatever you want to call it if you consider me a VI. When Zeph was asked to explain, he evaded the question, so it's very hard for me to believe he had nothing to hide.

I'm not sure what to make of midget's buddying. I've seen Town encourage me before when I've doubted myself so it might be that, but I can also see him trying to be on my good side to avoid me scumreading him. Leaning towards the latter just because of our numbers.

[Moonlight]

@midget: I did read it, but you said you believe in me. reinoe is wrong to scumread me, but he doesn't know that and his stance is understandable. What's causing your faith?

[Moonlight]

Wow moon such AtE, why not focus on doing your best, if you are town there is no reason to give up til the last scum is dead or we are. Losing the doc sucks, and we have not yet hit scum, but we can still win if we get our heads together.

It's not easy to be as optimistic as you. I expect Tricks to flip scum, he flips Town. I spend the first night brainstorming about The_Ascended and wanting to ask for clarification, killed. Baezu? Nope. Boro? Nope. NS? Nope.

That's 5 players whose flip upset me. All 5 of them toyed with the idea of me being scum at some point and now I look pretty horrible. And the funny thing is that if I was scum, maybe I'd have shot The_Ascended or N_M in the first night. But Boro or NS in the second night after Boro said I need to die? No, I would have wanted them alive just so I can waste their time today instead of talking to myself and venting all this frustration at no particular direction. -_-

Yes, this post of mine is also an AtE. Emotions are a part of human nature and it's not my problem if they're frowned upon. I'm not a machine and I don't trust my judgment at all right now, so how about this: instead of asking me to try my best, show me what

you

've got.

What do the numbers represent?

Pretty sure they show the place of the voter on the wagon. I was the 4th vote on N_M, 2nd on tman and so on.

[Moonlight]

It's posts like this one above that make me townread midget. He just drew all the attention to himself with that vote after going along with Finglove's idea.

I'm going to sleep on this for now, hoping for a clearer head tomorrow.

[Moonlight]

Because sheeping is definitely a good idea when no one is clear/confirmed. -_-

Not to mention that you're completely wrong and if you're Town you've failed to understand how my mind works. I simply can't be scum because I wouldn't be in this position if I was. I'd either have been lynched a long time ago, or I would be looking really good this late. None of that is happening.

You're not even trying to read me. You asked me what I think of midget so you can see if you can get a wagon on him instead, didn't you?

VOTE: RachMarie

This is partly a survivalistic vote, partly a scumread-based one through correlation. I have no desire to be lynched and I'm not a big fan of dilemmas or draws. I want to win this.

[Moonlight]

I asked the question to see if you're really so easily manipulated by people kissing your ass. Post 993 followed by Post 1002 suggests that you're either deliberately flaunting your lack of objectivity or you're scum.

I clearly outlined the scum motivation in your posts in posts 974. Your posting is at best anti-town. The buddying is not even subtle anymore.

Waiting for IDK 'cuz I think he might be the only one that can save this town from the derpstorm that's surrounding me.

Of course I lack objectivity. Do you think that anyone's objective in a game like Mafia? For real? What do you think people are, perfect logical machines? Sorry, but no. My posts come completely naturally, and if there's a site meta that looks down upon subjectivity at least I'll know and wait for everyone else to realize they're being unreasonable to expect objectivity and won't play another game until that happens. I'm sick and tired of this bullshit.

You're putting a label like "buddying" on what could be two Townies working together. That's what was going on with Tricks, and apparently no one has learned a lesson from that.

[Moonlight]

That math assumes a random selection and that's where it falls short. I believe we can lynch better than random, if I believed we're going to lynch equal to or worse than that, then yes a no-lynch would be a no-brainer.

I'm not in favor of a no lynch, but I won't oppose it. I don't think it's going to hurt, I just don't see it as helpful as it looks on paper. =/

[Moonlight]

Suit yourself.

VOTE: reinoe

If I get lynched instead and you are somehow Town, I am begging you to at least reconsider what you think you know about this game. Stop thinking you're always right. Start trying to understand someone before you read them. I don't want anyone else to not have fun in a game because of you.

[Moonlight]

Should I also fakeclaim scum? I'm beginning to contemplate it, that's how much I cannot stand this.

[Moonlight]

I had better teammates in that game. People who actually saw me for who I am instead of people who scumread every attempt of mine to win for Town.

I'm contemplating logging out and never logging back in on this site ever again. I feel so betrayed, so shunned for just being me that I cannot stand it. I've been wanting to matter, to have worth, to have something and instead I get this bullshit. Fuck people, fuck everything, I am so done.

VOTE: Moonlight

2 more votes for this torment to end. Please do it, then kill reinoe in the night. I'm done. So fucking done.

[Moonlight]

After more than a day, I've managed to compose myself enough to actually check the thread and post.

I thought about replacing out, but no, that's a cheap cop out and it's not fair to whoever would be stepping into my pools. This is a game and it's supposed to be fun, I'll deal with reinoe's bullying (because that's what it is) like a man.

@reinoe:

Please share with the classroom why you're comparing my play in this game with that game instead of comparing it with the one completed game where I've been scum.

I'll tell you why: because anyone with half a brain will realize through that comparison that town-me and scum-me are two completely different animals. It's not even funny, it's shameful to admit, but it's true. It's why I've been flipping out about being scumread in this game. This is the towniest I get, because it's the way I unfortunately am. -_-

Anyway, looks like we've got a majority on No Lynch and I partly hope I get shot tonight just so this pathetic excuse of a game can stop on my end. I also hope that reinoe gets shot, he is probably only playing dumb by making that ludicrous comparison.

[Moonlight]

EBWOP: stepping into my shoes.

(How did I even make that typo?)

[Moonlight]

By the way, reinoe, make sure to mention next time how me checking in after a No Lynch has been achieved was not a coincidence and I was instead waiting for it to happen. I am so good that I somehow knew how everyone else would act in my absense, totes.

[Moonlight]

You want to really get into "look at me, I'm so Town' arguments? Sure, let's look at 1036 where you push the idea that you are Town because... different mod rules apply to different alignments? WHAT? xD

I am not going to even say anything more. You should be scumreading yourself if you believe what you say.

[Moonlight]

Oh it's also worth noting that I exhibited that very same "obv townie" bragging in the game you're comparing my play to. But suuuure, feel free to leave that out of the comparison too!

[Moonlight]

And of course, you have completely dodged the important question: why did you compare this game of mine to one of my Town games instead of my scum game?

Don't answer, you have nothing useful to say anyway. I was right about your slot, and other Townies unfortunately jumped into my way and we suffered collateral damage. I'm sorry about it, I only did what I thought was right.

[Moonlight]

I guess I lied about saying anything more, but only one thing bothers me:

If I was right about Rach being your buddy, why on earth did she go after No Lynch? Did she fear that my flip would make you two even more glaringly obvious, or am I totally off the mark again?

PEdit: My mom's dead, so try fitting that into the mix for better results if you're really after a modkill? You're creative, you'll find something inappropriate.

[Moonlight]

Oh wow. I'm the only remaining VT and I'm actually some sort of kingmaker now.

I'm going to guess Finglove & midget vs idk & Glidder.

Convince me why each of you deserve to win, go.

[Moonlight]

If there was a "Worst Town performance" award, I would totally win it.

I suppose that you guys can lynch me and go for the draw if you prefer that.

[Moonlight]

Hang on... I can still win if there's no lynch and you guys kill each other. You're trapped. The only way for one team to win is if the other team shoots me.

Oh this is going to be fun.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Moonlight]

It's kind of funny knowing that you're all lying and watching you do it with that knowledge. xD

My vote will stay where it is and I won't budge. I'll also do it on the last day unless I get killed. I'm not letting you guys get away with this.

[Moonlight]

Also, even if you were the townie, how would you expect the wolves to vote for No Lynch, too? It just seems pointless trying to get that going.

I'm not counting on that. What you don't seem to realize is that it takes 3 votes for something to go through, and I refuse to move mine under any circumstances.

We won't be lynching anyone. I'm forcing a Town victory unless one of the scum teams decide to let the other team win by shooting me. And I don't think any of you are selfless enough.

[Moonlight]

Of course you are.



You have 2 options, my dear scum.

1) Lynch me. This will mean a draw, but it's the safest option and you're soon going to see why. You won't be able to lynch anyone else, because I won't join any wagon, and whoever the wagon is on it will get no support from that person's buddy, so there won't be any other lynch.

2) No lynch. This benefits me, as all of you will have to decide what to do in the night. If you shoot each other, eventually I'll win. One of you will have to act selflessly and make his team lose just so I can't win.

[Moonlight]

By the way, I think you can drop your acts. Even if you scumclaim I won't move my vote, because lynching scum would tip the scales to the other team's favor and solidify a defeat for Town.

Or just ignore me and keep going with your charade. =P

[Moonlight]

What happened to your confidence that I'm Town in this one?

It's literally against my wincon to lynch anyone right now. Do you see any fault in what I've said so far? You should know I'm the last VT.

[Moonlight]

Let's try that again!

VOTE: No Lynch

Something tells me that midget and idk will settle for a draw though.

[Moonlight]

Waiting for Llama to call it so I can start my post game ranting / self-deprecating / discussion with Baezu and stuff.

In case anyone has any doubts, I am indeed the last VT, the game's over.

[Moonlight]

So you totally missed midget's 1065? He wondered if I'm telling the truth, and if he was the last VT he'd know I was lying my ass off.

[Moonlight]

Hmm, how do I start this?

I guess I'll mention each player and what I have to say to them.

@reinoe:

I'm sorry for being unable to see how you could be Town. It wasn't because of your play, it was because of Zeph. I'm a guy that plays to win, so I have difficulty seeing Town motivation behind someone who clearly doesn't care (it's the only explanation I've got for Zeph calling me useless for questioning his lack of voting for his scumreads). You seem like a good player and you know your stuff, just go easy on the tunneling I suppose. =P

@Baezu:

There was such a... "disconnect" between your D1 and D2 play. How come? Why didn't you elaborate on your reaction to my first D2 post? You said you didn't like it, but you never said what felt wrong about it! That, along with your sudden sheeping of me with your second post made me so confused about you. I was about to "self-correct" my tunneling, but unfortunately I couldn't in the end, sorry. =/

@BoroPhil:

How did you think I was scum near the end of D2? You've experienced my scum play, it's nothing like how I played in this one.

@The_Ascended:

Not much to say, you both looked pretty damn Town to me. I'd welcome your advice, this game made me even more aware of a big flaw I have: I need someone to keep me on track. Or, I need to learn how to self-correct my course.

@Tricks:

I'm sorry I couldn't win it, buddy. I fucked up, shit happens, I'll learn from it and get better. I hope you're feeling better and that next time I scumread you, you won't go down without a better fight!

@NM:

I wish you made it to D2 alive, something tells me you'd manage to put me back on the right track. >_<

@NS and Rach:

You were both unlucky to replace into slots that got killed as soon as you joined. In hindsight, I should have paid more attention to your plays and how they contradicted my scumread on you both. Looking forward to playing more with you.

@scum:

Well played... and at the same time, not really (when it came to NKs). xD You did fantastic in the sense that you let Town destroy itself (well, let

me

destroy it anyway) without getting yourselves too involved. midget and Finglove looked so Town to me on D2 that I didn't bother to re-examine my reads on them (had my hands full with what to make of reinoe). idk and Glidder made some posts I really disliked, but they also convinced me they're Town on D2 as well, so kudos. I managed to create a townblock with all 4 of them in it.

Big thanks to Llama for saving this game from bad moderating.

[Moonlight]

Goes to show it's not a tell. reinoe also did something similar by suggesting that the mod rules treat him differently to randomidget, and he was Town too. =/

[Moonlight]

I welcome any criticism and advice from anyone, by the way. What I seem to need to work on when it comes to Town play is to re-focus my attention and not tunnel. So far, I've been lucky in the sense that there has always been someone that puts me on the right track (Nacho on both games I've played with him, AngryPidgeon too). I realize that I depend too heavily on that, and that can't always be there.

Maybe that's the way it's supposed to be, it's a team game after all. I just wish I could find a way to be more independent and still perform. >_<

PEdit: I second that QT request.

[Moonlight]

Moonlight, if it makes you feel any better, I thought you were so town that I protected you the only night I was here.

That's something. Apparently I'm really easy to read for some, not so much for others.

I wonder if Jasmine protected anyone in the first night.

If I had voted rm instead of you, would you have lynched him, or would you still have advocated the No Lynch?

Nah, the only way I could still win would be to somehow convince you two that it's a good idea to go into the night phase. I kept trying to come up with something, I kept thinking "I need to convince them that I'm Town, and at the same time that the other one will shoot me in the night... how?", so that you might shoot each other.

[Moonlight]

That was pretty fun to read.

I, too, expected midget to be shot in the last night. Like I said, the way he wondered if I'm telling the truth was a huge "Hi, I'm scum!" to everyone. xD

[Moonlight]

@Moonlight, Mastin will probably have better advice for you, mine would be to calm down a little, even stepping away from the game overnight and sleeping on things if you need to, I meta'd you a little so I know why you had those reactions, not sure how feasible my advice is in relation to that, but that's my 2 cents.

Thank you. I'm not sure myself if I'll be able to apply such advice when things get heated in future games, but I'll be damned if I don't try to! =)

Anyway, post-game is typically where I do my teaching, and while I'm not sure how good it'll be given my knowledge (see above) of the game, I can typically still give a few helpful pointers here and there if you want them.

*shyly raises hand*

Here's an example from a past game of mine: I townread a player heavily. Someone chimes in that they disagree with my reasoning and provide their own. This causes me to look at things from a new perspective (while keeping in mind that that player might be trying to manipulate me), resulting in me having a null read on the first player after considering their points. A lynch on another player happens, it's a scum flip, and on D2 I figure out through PoE and an effort to get attention away from the D1 lynch that the player I townread is the lynchee's buddy.

This is why I say many times in my games that the most useful players to me are the ones that disagree with me. I tend to keep tons of possibilities in mind when a game starts, then I tend to focus on the ones I consider most likely while disregarding the rest, which results in tunnel vision.

The question is: how do I know when it's right for me to stop and start from scratch on a read of mine? Is there a way to do this without relying on another player for the fresh and different perspective?