Open 561: Farmer's Market (Game Over)

[mathbandit]

I think it's definitely a gamebreaker. Everyone sends fruit to the person below them.

[mathbandit]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p5991047]

I think it's definitely a gamebreaker. Everyone sends fruit to the person below them.

I'm pretty sure this doesn't work because mafia can send fruit too/kill[/quote]
An individual Mafia member can either Kill or Send Fruit. Not both.

[mathbandit]

Just because hayatoBL is stupid doesn't make him Scum. As long as sometime before the end of the Day he agrees with the correct Fruit plan, nothing is gained from lynching him based on a mistake about the best way to handle the set-up.

[mathbandit]

If everyone Fruits the person below them, we get 2 Nights where the Scum cannot kill without exposing one of their members.
If some portion of people Fruit the people below them, Scum can kill and still not be exposed on every Night. (Hint: '{A,B,C,D} contains at least 1 Scum member' is a useless statement unless you feel like spending 4 lynches to get possibly only 1 Scum'.)

[mathbandit]

With your plan (or anything other than the other proposed plan), we are in LyLo after 3 mislynches.
With the other proposed plan, either we get a 4th mislynch without losing.

[mathbandit]

Uhhh, math is ALSO over-focusing on the fruits.

VOTE: Mathbandit

I'm over-focussing on the fruits by pointing out that someone having a different game theory opinion doesn't make them Scum?

Kay.

[mathbandit]

Not a clue. Nothing of note has happened yet. As far as I'm concerned, making sure no one fucks up and gives away our extra mislynch is the most important thing for the first bit of D1.

[mathbandit]

Vote: innocentvillager

Inactivity + not being observant about the set-up/role mechanics.

[mathbandit]

Just to be clear, innoventvillager:

Are you saying you would prefer an interesting mechanic that gives Town an X% chance to win over a boring mechanic that gives Town a higher than X% chance to win?

[mathbandit]

Hello fishy and fitz. Welcome to stupid setup speculation.

Math, are you 100% sure the other plan is optimal?

No, I'm not. But unless you can give me a second plan than guarantees a result better than an extra mislynch, then it's the best plan I've seen. I

am

100% sure that the other plan proposed (arrange an order of fruit-giving but don't make it mandatory) is significantly worse, though.

[mathbandit]

Whoops. Forgot about this game yesterday when I got online. Let me catch up real quick and post.

[mathbandit]

Alright, caught up.

I like the Siv wagon. Nothing original to add, mostly would just end up repeating the words of others. But in summation, I like Bulge's points in 120 (I think?) about the flip-flop regarding game theory, and Siv's reaction leads a lot to be desired. Would normally vote Siv here, but I'm unsure of the vote count and so I'll go with a

FoS: Siv

in the meantime.

The other thing that really jumps out at me, though, is Aronis' jump off the wagon. I really don't like it. Nothing really happened between the vote and unvote. Makes me think if Aronis expected a hammer and wanted to be seen on the wagon, but then hopped off claiming it was "too easy" as soon as an alternate suspect presented itself. If Siv flips Scum, I'll want to take a closer look at Aronis and what might have been a badly-executed bus attempt.

[mathbandit]

Is tactically replacing out like hayato is doing something common on this site? I've never seen someone do that before.

[mathbandit]

Just saw vote count, will

Vote: Siv

per my earlier post. HE IS NOW AT L-1.

[mathbandit]

I don't expect any rational player to self-hammer as Town. As far as I'm concerned, that's much more likely to be Scum-fueled if he feels he cannot avoid being lynched. I was very clear before the VC was posted that I was interested in voting him pending the result of said VC, an appeal to emotion like that certainly is not going to dissuade me from doing so.

[mathbandit]

I don't expect any rational player to self-hammer as Town. As far as I'm concerned, that's much more likely to be Scum-fueled if he feels he cannot avoid being lynched. I was very clear before the VC was posted that I was interested in voting him pending the result of said VC, an appeal to emotion like that certainly is not going to dissuade me from doing so.

It doesn't matter if he's scum. What matters is that we're not ready to end the day.

I'm not going to avoid putting a suspected Scum at L-1 out of fear of a self-hammer. That's ridiculous.

[mathbandit]

So, math, you live in a fantasy world where nobody ever self-hammers, and the only reason anyone would say they would is that they're scum posturing for wifom.

I live in a world where everybody follows the rules of the game, and plays to their win condition at all times. Short of preventing a deadline No Lynch, there are no scenarios in this set-up where a Town player would help their team by self-hammering. The only time self-hammering might make sense is from a Scum perspective, and so the threat of a self-hammer is a very strong scumtell.

Why is scum-siv wrong to think self-hammering is good for scum?

I'm okay with a Scum self-hammer at this time because it assures a Scum lynch that might plausibly not happen otherwise. We've had enough discussion on the subject of the set-up that any rational Town player will send fruit to the person below them, so we're in no harm of the Town getting screwed by someone fucking up their Night action.

[mathbandit]

I don't expect any rational player to self-hammer as Town. As far as I'm concerned, that's much more likely to be Scum-fueled if he feels he cannot avoid being lynched. I was very clear before the VC was posted that I was interested in voting him pending the result of said VC, an appeal to emotion like that certainly is not going to dissuade me from doing so.

It doesn't matter if he's scum. What matters is that we're not ready to end the day.

I'm not going to avoid putting a suspected Scum at L-1 out of fear of a self-hammer. That's ridiculous.

How is that ridiculous? How many times do I have to say it? We're fucked if we go into night right now, unprepared. Why is putting him at L-1 so important to you?[/quote]
As above, we've said more than enough to ensure no one fucks up their Night actions. As to the second part, I said earlier that I was interested in a Siv vote pending the VC. It's no so much that it's important he's at L-1, but that I would have voted him before that had I known the votecount. It's not like we need to wait for a claim or anything. There's no inherent danger with him being at L-1, particularly as I made sure to announce that I was putting him there. Besides, in my view a self-hammer would have been a huge boon, I wasn't going to go out of my way to prevent it.

[mathbandit]

If I think someone is Scum, and they are my highest suspect at the time, I need a reason to not have my vote on them. The fact they might be Scum and self-hammer is not a good enough reason.

[mathbandit]

Relax. I'm almost never going to have weekend access at this point.

Anyways, I don't understand why Bulge is so keen to avoid even the possibility that someone might be lynched. I'm not sure what might be motivating it, but it does seem odd that we're two weeks into the game and he doesn't even want to consider lynching anyone.

[mathbandit]

Whoever hammers should tell everyone to pass fruit below them.

I don't understand this part. No one needs to be told this. We are all Fruiting the person below us.

[mathbandit]

So if there are 10 people in a room, you say that say, sunday is the best day of the week, 4 of them agree with you and the rest say nothing, does that mean they all agree with you?

Thats this situation.

How does that change if one of those 4 tells them before everyone goes home that Sunday is the best day?

At this point,

unless something is decided to the contrary, everyone will be assumed to acknowledge that they are to give fruit to the person below them on the playerlist that is alive at end of Day.

If anyone has an objection to this plan and intends to not follow it, they must clearly state that before the end of the Day so that it can be discussed.

[mathbandit]

I'm still here. If anyone wants to explain why they are voting me, I'll be happy to explain the reasons for what I did that they find suspicious. I really am getting the sense though that I am being voted for a combination of being the easy newbie lynch for Scum and the default lynch for Town that couldn't care less.

The best I can get from reading the stated reasons is that I'm suspicious for having not thought that hayato's plan was scum-motivated? That's asinine.

[mathbandit]

mathbandit. the case. I wish I had the time to sift through all of this. #87 is what confirmed it to me. the innocentvillager vote just seems a poor reaction to the recent three votes against himself. with part of the reasoning being "inactivity" which is a cop out on page four, and the other being "not observant of the mechanics, just mere posts after defending someone for having a different opinion on theory. just seems like a "shit, I'm getting found out, better brush it off and cast suspicion elsewhere" type post. that is really the crux of my original case. reread that couple of pages and tell me what you think given that context.

As you said, it was Page 4. This means that the slightest little tell, that would normally be brushed aside, will instead be used to justify votes and such. Inactivity is one such tell. Another tell that I find to be mildly accurate is the pretense of now knowing Open information pertinent to the Scum. I would expect most Town players to know that Scum cannot Fruit + Kill. I would also expect every Scum to know that (s)he cannot Fruit + Scum, but I would not necessarily expect them to know that Town are aware of that.

[mathbandit]

As you said, it was Page 4. This means that the slightest little tell, that would normally be brushed aside, will instead be used to justify votes and such. Inactivity is one such tell. Another tell that I find to be mildly accurate is the pretense of now knowing Open information pertinent to the Scum. I would expect most Town players to know that Scum cannot Fruit + Kill. I would also expect every Scum to know that (s)he cannot Fruit + Scum, but I would not necessarily expect them to know that Town are aware of that.

this seems to make no point nor justify your position. an inactive player is more likely to be ignorant of set-up than an active player. to accuse someone of "inactivity" in and of itself on page 4 is a cop out in itself. it reads much more like a diversionary tactic to me than it does a bonafide scumhunting strategy.

It's an Open set-up. I expect every Town person to familiarize themselves with the set-up moreso than I expect Scum might have.

[mathbandit]

but seriously, you can talk til you are blue in the face(and hopefully you will), but your actions have determined your fate imo. the iv vote was terribad.

If you are claiming that my lynch was set in stone by a post I made on Page 4, I have nothing more to say to you. Not in this game, not ever.

[mathbandit]

but seriously, you can talk til you are blue in the face(and hopefully you will), but your actions have determined your fate imo. the iv vote was terribad.

If you are claiming that my lynch was set in stone by a post I made on Page 4, I have nothing more to say to you. Not in this game, not ever.

well. that's overly emotional.

On the contrary, emotional gameplay leads one to say things like "No matter what you could possibly say, you are being lynched 100% due to a vote on Page 4." My own rational response to that is to assume that any further rational debate and conversation would be lost on you.

[mathbandit]

hm. if 120 checks out fact wise, then I'd say its a good post. I hate sorting out walls though.

We start with this post on July 07. He is referring to the case The Bulge made on Siv, saying that if the quotes from Siv happened in the order Bulge claimed they did, Siv is caught in a contradiction regarding the Night plans.

@don_johnson:

• Why are you voting mathbandit?
  Did you ever check out the facts from post 120?
  Who are your top three suspects and why?
  Who are your top three town?

i'll present the mathbandit case when I return.

no. I'm not a fact checker. I was just commenting on the content of the post. if anyone checked the facts I would love to know.

I do not have three suspects atm. I need to devote some attention to this thread. right now I am on mathbandit for a couple of his posts early on, but that may change with a reread.

I don't have a top three town atm. but I will update that when I return.

v/la until Thursday July 17

i'll check in on Monday or Tuesday, but i'll be out of touch until then.

Skip ahead to July 10, and he helpfully says that "he is not a fact checker." All it takes to check the 'facts' is literally clicking on the little links in Bulge's post to check that he is not misquoting Siv. He also does not have any reads other than me, and admits to needing to devote attention to the game. He is suspicious of me for "a couple of [my] posts early on,

but that may change with a reread."

Note in particular his admission that it is an early post, as well as the fact that his reads are subject to change when he devotes attention to the thread.

there is no logic to that train of thought. whether or not someone familiarizes themselves with the set up is way more of a personal playstyle type thing. this still does not address the other point brought against you. but seriously, you can talk til you are blue in the face(and hopefully you will), but your actions have determined your fate imo. the iv vote was terribad.

Skip ahead a week without any substance from him. Not only has he not dedicated any time he said he needed in that week, but in his own words

"

can talk til

am blue in the face ... but [my] actions have determined [my] fate."

Upon further questioning, he then says that in fact, he thinks my lynch was set in stone by the Page 4 post he alludes to earlier.

[mathbandit]

Math, are you saying DJ is scum or shitty town? If you are saying scum then that's one thing, but if you are saying he is bad town then maybe you shouldn't worry about defending yourself so much if his accusation is really that far off base and help is find some actual scum.

I'm saying he's an idiot, mostly. I'll need to read over the game this weekend to tell if he's actually scummy or not, it's too easy to be blinded in the moment because I'm the one he's targetting.

Today I plan on taking another look at the Siv wagon. I can't imagine that a wagon went from that close to a lynch to being completely dead in a matter of a day or two without Scum involvement. I want to see if anyone in particular derailed the wagon.

[mathbandit]

Bullshit Siv. You can't claim not to have any scumreads this late in the Day. Your 'reads' are

screaming

"I know these people will flip Town but I am justifying the lynch anyways."

[mathbandit]

Gun to your fruitstand. You need to name a player, and if they are Scum you win 1000$. You do you pick?

[mathbandit]

You, because gun to my fruitstand.

Seriously though, probably the bulge.

Thinking about it, I probably don't really want a lynch just yet.

So if you had one choice to pick a Scum right now, it would be Bluge.
If you had to lynch someone right now, it would be me or don.

What in the actual fuck?

[mathbandit]

Say you had to shoot someone right now. If you don't, you die. Who are you shooting?

[mathbandit]

Obligatory note that I likely won't have access until Monday morning.

[mathbandit]

I must have missed something. Is neil actually claiming that it's reasonable to both trust him and be okay with the fact that he hasn't read the damn game?

[mathbandit]

The one guy who isn't reading the thread defends the other guy not reading the thread. I'm shocked.

If this is the level of activity I can expect in this game, Mod, you'll have to replace me soon too. This isn't a game if no one is playing or reading.

[mathbandit]

Neil. As you said, fitz is just looking to lynch you. But there is town reasoning for that. He's conf-biasing you as scum to some extent. It happens. Town does it. Scum ends up stuck in it sometimes. It doesn't mean crap as to his alignment. And I do think it's to some extent a fitz-tell.

Anti-town =/= scum but it's really, really, really hard to remember that when you think someone is scum. And that goes both ways here.

Damnitt. You're right, it's not exactly a scum tell.

UNVOTE:

I must have missed something. Is neil actually claiming that it's reasonable to both trust him and be okay with the fact that he hasn't read the damn game?

The one guy who isn't reading the thread defends the other guy not reading the thread. I'm shocked.

If this is the level of activity I can expect in this game, Mod, you'll have to replace me soon too. This isn't a game if no one is playing or reading.

Don't worry about replacing out, you'll be lynched soon enough I'm guessing.

You're right my apathy toward this game is frustrating, and while I was considering myself to replace out, the mod took time to make this game and host it for us, the least we can do is play it. I'm going to read through it, starting right now. And I'm going to put time and effort in, the way the mod did to design this. I apologize for my apathy.

I will say this, if I put all this time into it, and get killed Night One because I'm the "most-town" (or well, the only town that's talking), I'm gonna be pissed.

Alright, well here goes nothing.

Don't worry. No one can get killed tonight. I appreciate your willingness to read though. I was just frustrated that no one seems to even bother reading.

[mathbandit]

I will no longer be playing in this game as long as the Mod/Town take the attitude that it is okay for players to fully admit to not reading the thread. Either we lynch from the people not reading the game, or you can replace me as well. I'm not going to waste hours and hours of my time playing a game if the other players in the game aren't willing to give me that same respect.

[mathbandit]

dear god. "reading is not paramount to winning at mafiascum". it's just not. we can debate this til we turn blue, but its a playstyle difference. acting like a baby and threatening us is poor form. I'm here. I'm posting. I've posited a logical case against you. that's playing. if neil wants to coast, then vote him and campaign for his lynch, but you're not going to win over e=veryone if you're whole case is "he's not reading" or "he's not active". inactivity can be a tell dependent on context, but as a stand alone, it is simply a lazy and innacurate attack. grow up, please. if you're so sure you've found scum, then do seomthing about it. don't just whine and complain that other people play differently than you. have you taken the time to meta me? if you are so into reading, why don't you search some of my games? some of us don't read as much. deal with it and quit trying to control everyone else.

mod: can we get a votecount?

No. I'm not going to devote hours upon hours to this game if others can't be assed to read the thread. Choosing not to read the thread is not a "playstyle difference" anymore than it would be to claim that my basketball playstyle is to stand put with a baseball bat and swing at the ball if it comes near me.

[mathbandit]

I see what you are saying. If in the list from 1-10 the possibility of scum being in a position to give fruit to their partner...and therefore performing a kill instead...would not get us very far (if at all). If as you suggest, we give the fruit out in pairs...and a kill still occurred...we would have at least confirmed that the two scum were one of the 5 pairs. Which would be more helpful than the aforementioned method.

So how does this sound people?

If we lynch town today (D1)

- we'll have ten players left. Starting at the top with Xayzeck still as #1...re-number everyone from 1-10 (so Xayzeck is #1 and Bins is #10 and all the others are renumbered accordingly. All the Odd numbered players will give their fruit to the even numbered player below them. All the even numbered players give their fruit to the player above them.

Example 1 - Xayzeck would give fruit to me and I would give fruit to Xayzeck.
Example 2 - FormerFish would give fruit to Bins and Bins would give fruit to FormerFish.

And so on in between.

This accomplishes the same thing as the previous method but it takes some of the potential risk out of mafia being next to each other on the list. If everyone does this as planned...and there is a kill tonight, we would know that the two scum were one of the 5 pairs (which would actually only be 3 pairs from everyone pov because one of the pairs would be eliminated from consideration by the NK, and each town would of course discount their own pair).

and to re-iterate,

If we lynch Mafia today (D1)

, we'll have ten players left. Starting at the top with Xayzeck still as #1...re-number everyone from 1-10 (so Xayzeck is #1 and Bins is #10 and all the others are renumbered accordingly. All the Odd numbered players will give their fruit to the even numbered player below them. All the even numbered players won't do anything.

Example 1 - Xayzeck would give to me and I would do nothing.
Example 2 - FormerFish would give to Bins and Bins would do nothing.

And so on in between.


Got it people!?

This plan seems fine.

[mathbandit]

As for everything else, I'm (obviously) still happy with a Siv lynch. I'm certainly glad to see Neil is participating fully, and I did like his full catchup/notes post.

[mathbandit]

Don.

Why do you think math is scum?
Why do you think that vote is going anywhere?

1) He figured it out on page 4
2) He hasn't read past page 4 so has no real knowledge of events

[mathbandit]

He figured it out - so you ARE scum?

Yes, obviously. There was no sarcasm in my last post.

[mathbandit]

10% by my count. But it's still the best we've got.

[mathbandit]

Wrong way of looking at it.

Assume X is Scum. X is paired (or passing fruit to, doesn't matter) another player Y. There are 10 other players in the game, and 1 other Scum. Odds that Y is Scum are 1/10. So there's a 10% chance (using either the pairs or circular list) of Scum being able to kill and cover for eachother.

[mathbandit]

Absolutely. Finding out that the Scum are paired is more than worth them getting a nightkill. Then we just switch up the pairings for the next night, and as soon as we hit 1 Scum we win.

[mathbandit]

I got fruit.

[mathbandit]

Waiting on Aronis.

[mathbandit]

So I missed most of yesterday due to it happening super quick. Didn't really miss much, though. Aronis was pretty obvscum.

edit:
@Xay, Aronis killed DJ's partner.