Open 564: Duck Duck Goose - Game Over!

[zMuffinMan]

/ego post so i don't forget i'm in this game

reading tomorrow prob.

[zMuffinMan]

got lazy. reading after i catch up in other games

[zMuffinMan]

prod dodge. post after sleep

[zMuffinMan]

/ego post so i don't forget i'm in this game

reading tomorrow prob.

got lazy. reading after i catch up in other games

prod dodge. post after sleep

ok I totally expect that will actually happen

soz? 'twas my birthday yesterday so i don't really give a shit!

but i will legit catch up today

[zMuffinMan]

tbh i think anatole looks the worst at the end of D1. possibly kibbles off the wagon as well.

i don't really get what the issues with chaos were D1 so either he does something "scummy" later down the line or people are just bad at this game, i guess

also don't really see what the issues with uctriton were, either

[zMuffinMan]

kyndy101 (L-6) - kibbles0515
chaoslord54 (L-6) - mathbandit
LYNCHED - mathbandit(L-0) - Psychotropia, McFriendly, kyndy101, Ki-Gi, Anatole Kuragin, chaoslord54, uctriton00
uctriton00 (L-6) - Hopkirk
Anatole Kuragin (L-6) - Hephaestus

Not Voting - Looker

this is also interesting to look at because i don't really think hepha slot is scum so we're looking at either all three scum jumping on the mathbandit wagon (seems unlikely just given the way day one played out) or two on one off most likely

and if it's one off, i think kibbles

[zMuffinMan]

also of the people on the wagon apart from my slot, i think triton and chaos are more likely town than not. others haven't posted much of anything D1. i got very, very minor town vibes from mcfriendly and kinda-townish-but-not-particularly-so vibes from psychotropia

[zMuffinMan]

that was an awful lynch, though. it was essentially a policy lynch

also loled at the n1 kill. i didn't remember a single thing looker posted, went to look at his ISO and couldn't see the name on the list

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose i should give some sort of explanations for this stuff

i got really bored reading through all the setup speculation stuff and couldn't find anything in there that was particularly alignment-indicative. three pages of that shit. holy fuck.

chaos moving the game away from that shit (76) but not really part of why i think he's town, even though that was townish if it was anything other than null.

i thought triton asking anatole about his wagon in 79 was a minorly townish move, and conversely i thought anatole's response in 81 was not a town response at all. content-wise, it's rather null, but the tone and phrasing of it felt like scum addressing a town player

anatole's 86 was the start of the mathbandit wagon and i really didn't understand how anyone could believe this was solid reasoning for thinking someone was scum. this whole post looked fake, like scum who smells an incredibly lynchable player and is salivating all over the prospect. for starters, in what fucking world does scum ever say "scum hunting is useless"? and the idea that mathbandit was this criminal mastermind of a scum player suggesting something that no one agreed with and then sticking to his guns because he's scum is ridiculous. also, again, the entire phrasing of this post feels really off to me.

i didn't particularly like chaos's vote in 87 either (well, i didn't like any of the votes, so meh). it is essentially the same reasoning as anatole's, though in terms of tone, it came across less monotonous than anatole's vote. for the same reason, i didn't particularly mind psycho's vote in 91, even though i think the reasoning was extremely flawed (not just because he was town, but because it was shit reasoning). but at least 91 kinda sorta looks like a town post (or at the very least scum who's trying decently hard to look town, but i'm not sure that's the case)

mcfriendly's vote (93) was pretty piss poor and doesn't really tell me a whole lot. it

might

be a slightly townish post in the grand scheme of things since i generally associate blind sheeping like that with town more than scum, but eh. 96 was also a very, very, very minorly townish post, mostly because it came across as honest, but nothing strong here

107 and the ensuing anatole posts are where my feelings about anatole being scum really formed. he's doing a thing i often do as scum (or often

used

to do rather, since i try to actively avoid doing it nowadays unless i see a benefit in doing so) which is basically trying to look like someone who is considering all options when i'm not really, i just don't want to be associated with driving through a bad lynch. i mean, i would still want the lynch to go through, but i also want to come across as a fair-minded individual who is not pushing an agenda. and this is basically the vibe i got from anatole's posts and content around the mathbandit wagon. i felt like he was continually pushing it and never considering other options, but still trying to look town except in a not-really-town way. i know this probably seems like rambling, but there's no better way to describe it. it was just a really scum-motivated way to approach the game, ime. so, for example, when he writes stuff like 109, i read it and all i see is a player who is still salivating over the idea of an easy mislynch, but wants others to do his dirty work for him. it's basically sniping at an easy target. the questions don't look like they come from a town player. the entire dance anatole continues to do around the mathbandit wagon just came across really scummy. 123 and 124 are more examples of what i feel were scum taking pot shots at an easy target. (also, in general, i couldn't really see a town mindset in the way anatole was asking questions of people outside of the mathbandit wagon and i couldn't really find anything that looked like it was coming from a town player)

i thought kibbles' 126 looked pretty scummy, too. up to this point, kibbles hasn't given an opinion on mathbandit, or an opinion on anything at all, really. there was a line of question to my slot in 118 but apart from that, this is the first real post with anything that could be called "content" by kibbles, and i don't see it as a town-motivated post. i think calling out scum in the lurkers was a good way to look busy without really committing to anything - some players like to make general statements about how they think there's scum lurking, but usually that's when they legitimately have town reads in a lot of the active players and think scum is being quiet. this, however, felt like a fake throwaway comment (though if kibbles is scum, i'd wager he was telling the truth about this and there probably is scum among those names - at a guess, probably the splash slot). the vote itself was rather terrible, but more importantly, kibbles avoids commenting on the mathbandit wagon here and for the entirety of D1

i thought 130 by chaos came across as a genuinely town thought process. 144-146 were also really town imo and these posts are the main reason i think chaos slot is town

i thought most of triton's posts on page 6 looked townish as well

i thought anatole's 148/149 looked like someone trying to pick apart minor things that don't matter rather than an attempt to discern triton's alignment

kibbles' 155 continues to avoid commenting on most of the stuff actually happening in the game in favour of... voting someone for... lurking

159-161 are more posts by anatole i felt came across as really fake. particularly 159. again, this is the kind of semi-aggressive stance i used to like taking a lot as scum, but the way it comes across feels empty - there's no real town emotion to it, it's just a statement designed to paint an easy target in bad light. and 161 is more of the fake diplomacy stuff that i think was designed to try to make him seem reasonable when he'd already made up his mind about what was happening that day phase - i.e. he was pushing his agenda

162 by chaos also, tonally, felt town

164 and the next posts by triton (166-170) are a big part of why i think triton is town. i got a lot of genuine vibes from that series of posts

173 by kibbles i don't really understand but presumably he unvoted splash because splash was being replaced. this was kibbles last post of the day, too, and still no real content from him

i was fairly neutral on ki-gi's replace in post (176) since it didn't really tell me much about him or why he thinks what he thinks. i felt the exchange he had with anatole following that was really weird. more scum feelings about the way anatole was responding ("gathering info" - lol) but i didn't really feel ki-gi was trying to glisten much about anatole there

i thought hepha's posts re: mathbandit wagon (primarily 194 and also slightly 226) were very minorly townish. nothing strong here though.

tl;dr i think anatole and kibbles are probably scum off D1

now onto D2 after i make food

[zMuffinMan]

though i sincerely doubt i will put anywhere near that much effort into explaining reads i get from D2 because it takes too long so i'll just give cliffsnotes and explain anything that people want explained

[zMuffinMan]

yeah that's a pretty shitty track record and none of those votes indicate any scumhunting beyond a superficial level

loled btw

[zMuffinMan]

fwiw i've played in this setup before, with kibbles in it, and while i don't really think one game that happened a fair while back is all that good a reference, his play here is also entirely different to what it was there

[zMuffinMan]

yeah so i'm basically caught up

i still think it's kibbles+anatole+1 though who that +1 is i'm not really sure

i would have thought ki-gi but that would require ki-gi trying to hard bus both his scum mates D2 and i dunno how likely that actually is

possible psycho, but only because i can find better reasons to call other players town and while psycho hasn't done anything overtly scummy, i don't really see what he's done as amazingly town

triton is town. mcfriendly/riddleton is probably town. chaos is probably town. hepha/saki is probably town.

[zMuffinMan]

i dunno what kibbles is doing but my first thought is a weak distancing attempt right now

i don't really care which of anatole or kibbles gets wagoned today

Vote: Kibbles

[zMuffinMan]

is there one i didn't comment on?

[zMuffinMan]

is there one i didn't comment on?

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose i should give some sort of explanations for this stuff

i got really bored reading through all the setup speculation stuff and couldn't find anything in there that was particularly alignment-indicative. three pages of that shit. holy fuck.

chaos moving the game away from that shit (76) but not really part of why i think he's town, even though that was townish if it was anything other than null.

i thought triton asking anatole about his wagon in 79 was a minorly townish move, and conversely i thought anatole's response in 81 was not a town response at all. content-wise, it's rather null, but the tone and phrasing of it felt like scum addressing a town player

anatole's 86 was the start of the mathbandit wagon and i really didn't understand how anyone could believe this was solid reasoning for thinking someone was scum. this whole post looked fake, like scum who smells an incredibly lynchable player and is salivating all over the prospect. for starters, in what fucking world does scum ever say "scum hunting is useless"? and the idea that mathbandit was this criminal mastermind of a scum player suggesting something that no one agreed with and then sticking to his guns because he's scum is ridiculous. also, again, the entire phrasing of this post feels really off to me.

i didn't particularly like chaos's vote in 87 either (well, i didn't like any of the votes, so meh). it is essentially the same reasoning as anatole's, though in terms of tone, it came across less monotonous than anatole's vote. for the same reason, i didn't particularly mind psycho's vote in 91, even though i think the reasoning was extremely flawed (not just because he was town, but because it was shit reasoning). but at least 91 kinda sorta looks like a town post (or at the very least scum who's trying decently hard to look town, but i'm not sure that's the case)

mcfriendly's vote (93) was pretty piss poor and doesn't really tell me a whole lot. it

might

be a slightly townish post in the grand scheme of things since i generally associate blind sheeping like that with town more than scum, but eh. 96 was also a very, very, very minorly townish post, mostly because it came across as honest, but nothing strong here

107 and the ensuing anatole posts are where my feelings about anatole being scum really formed. he's doing a thing i often do as scum (or often

used

to do rather, since i try to actively avoid doing it nowadays unless i see a benefit in doing so) which is basically trying to look like someone who is considering all options when i'm not really, i just don't want to be associated with driving through a bad lynch. i mean, i would still want the lynch to go through, but i also want to come across as a fair-minded individual who is not pushing an agenda. and this is basically the vibe i got from anatole's posts and content around the mathbandit wagon. i felt like he was continually pushing it and never considering other options, but still trying to look town except in a not-really-town way. i know this probably seems like rambling, but there's no better way to describe it. it was just a really scum-motivated way to approach the game, ime. so, for example, when he writes stuff like 109, i read it and all i see is a player who is still salivating over the idea of an easy mislynch, but wants others to do his dirty work for him. it's basically sniping at an easy target. the questions don't look like they come from a town player. the entire dance anatole continues to do around the mathbandit wagon just came across really scummy. 123 and 124 are more examples of what i feel were scum taking pot shots at an easy target. (also, in general, i couldn't really see a town mindset in the way anatole was asking questions of people outside of the mathbandit wagon and i couldn't really find anything that looked like it was coming from a town player)

i thought kibbles' 126 looked pretty scummy, too. up to this point, kibbles hasn't given an opinion on mathbandit, or an opinion on anything at all, really. there was a line of question to my slot in 118 but apart from that, this is the first real post with anything that could be called "content" by kibbles, and i don't see it as a town-motivated post. i think calling out scum in the lurkers was a good way to look busy without really committing to anything - some players like to make general statements about how they think there's scum lurking, but usually that's when they legitimately have town reads in a lot of the active players and think scum is being quiet. this, however, felt like a fake throwaway comment (though if kibbles is scum, i'd wager he was telling the truth about this and there probably is scum among those names - at a guess, probably the splash slot). the vote itself was rather terrible, but more importantly, kibbles avoids commenting on the mathbandit wagon here and for the entirety of D1

i thought 130 by chaos came across as a genuinely town thought process. 144-146 were also really town imo and these posts are the main reason i think chaos slot is town

i thought most of triton's posts on page 6 looked townish as well

i thought anatole's 148/149 looked like someone trying to pick apart minor things that don't matter rather than an attempt to discern triton's alignment

kibbles' 155 continues to avoid commenting on most of the stuff actually happening in the game in favour of... voting someone for... lurking

159-161 are more posts by anatole i felt came across as really fake. particularly 159. again, this is the kind of semi-aggressive stance i used to like taking a lot as scum, but the way it comes across feels empty - there's no real town emotion to it, it's just a statement designed to paint an easy target in bad light. and 161 is more of the fake diplomacy stuff that i think was designed to try to make him seem reasonable when he'd already made up his mind about what was happening that day phase - i.e. he was pushing his agenda

162 by chaos also, tonally, felt town

164 and the next posts by triton (166-170) are a big part of why i think triton is town. i got a lot of genuine vibes from that series of posts

173 by kibbles i don't really understand but presumably he unvoted splash because splash was being replaced. this was kibbles last post of the day, too, and still no real content from him

i was fairly neutral on ki-gi's replace in post (176) since it didn't really tell me much about him or why he thinks what he thinks. i felt the exchange he had with anatole following that was really weird. more scum feelings about the way anatole was responding ("gathering info" - lol) but i didn't really feel ki-gi was trying to glisten much about anatole there

i thought hepha's posts re: mathbandit wagon (primarily 194 and also slightly 226) were very minorly townish. nothing strong here though.

tl;dr i think anatole and kibbles are probably scum off D1

now onto D2 after i make food

[zMuffinMan]

what the fuck are you expecting? a thesis on every fucking post in the game?

you yourself haven't commented on any of them and the most you've put forth in terms of content is "i think chaos is scum"

[zMuffinMan]

also just realised you didn't include either of anatole's votes in that spoiler

were they not "bad votes" or ?

[zMuffinMan]

like chaoslord's 87 is just a town version of anatole's voting reasoning

where anatole is really robotic with no underlying analysis, chaos's post comes across as town in tone and wording

91 was a town-looking post. it expands on thoughts and it asks questions that progress the game state. it's also something i could see myself writing if i were scum and trying really hard to look town so it's not necessarily a town post

kyndy is me why would i comment on me?

triton is town for D1 and also reasons outside of D1 i dunno what the point of including his vote in that spoiler was

ki-gi's entrance i already said i'm neutral on but seeing as that's your slot i dunno why you're quoting it

but more to the point, why the fuck are you asking me about the d1 votes rather than commenting on anything i wrote

what is your read on anatole and kibbles?

[zMuffinMan]

since when does looking at anything "objectively" ever net scum unless scum are incredibly bad players

and i fail to see how you thought my kibbles comments were based on perception when they were about as objective as it gets

[zMuffinMan]

i thought kibbles' 126 looked pretty scummy, too. up to this point, kibbles hasn't given an opinion on mathbandit, or an opinion on anything at all, really. there was a line of question to my slot in 118 but apart from that, this is the first real post with anything that could be called "content" by kibbles, and i don't see it as a town-motivated post. i think calling out scum in the lurkers was a good way to look busy without really committing to anything - some players like to make general statements about how they think there's scum lurking, but usually that's when they legitimately have town reads in a lot of the active players and think scum is being quiet. this, however, felt like a fake throwaway comment (though if kibbles is scum, i'd wager he was telling the truth about this and there probably is scum among those names - at a guess, probably the splash slot). the vote itself was rather terrible, but more importantly, kibbles avoids commenting on the mathbandit wagon here and for the entirety of D1

apart from the fact that his d2 play is no better, how did you perceive kibbles as "null"?

[zMuffinMan]

so im guessing you actually are scum with anatole and kibbles and this is you not wanting to bus or something?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm referring to the reasoning you give for any/all of your reads

or as you yourself put it,

yeah that's a pretty shitty track record and none of those votes indicate any scumhunting beyond a superficial level

[zMuffinMan]

also kibbles' ranon vote is about as opportunistic as opportunistic gets

[zMuffinMan]

Ranon hasn't said anything at all

ranon hasn't been on site since september 5 btw so should probably be replaced

[zMuffinMan]

also ranon is L-1 and is so obviously not scum here it's not funny

but hey, aegor / anatole / kibbles are all content with an easy lynch because there's totally not at least 2 scum in these 3 names

totally. not. the. case.

[zMuffinMan]

the funny thing is, i can't derail this lynch because there aren't even enough active players to vote other people so you get your mislynch today but when he flips town, you're fucked, so good luck with winning

[zMuffinMan]

the fact that you think ranon is going to flip scum is humourous

let alone the fact that you think i'm scum and anatole is town and i decided the best course of action today was to what? defend one scum buddy and bus the other?

yeah

i just remembered why i don't like playing opens. the setups are OK, the player lists are cancerous

[zMuffinMan]

the funny thing is, i can't derail this lynch because there aren't even enough active players to vote other people so you get your mislynch today but when he flips town, you're fucked, so good luck with winning

Why are you so sure he is town?

because even apart from the fact there was nothing about his play that was actually scummy and plenty that looked town, i have eyes, and i can see who is voting him and why

[zMuffinMan]

those magical things called eyes, they can be very helpful sometimes

[zMuffinMan]

though let me guess, when he flips town, i'll be scummy because i knew he'd flip town!

*gasp*

two steps ahead of you, anatole

[zMuffinMan]

Chaos looks scummy as fuck

this is the closest thing i could find to a chaos case in your ISO

I want to lynch Chaos for his incredibly scummy posting throughout the entire game, ending with his horrible jump onto the uctriton wagon yesterday

this is aegor's

So I gave chaos a completely free town card, because chaos basically came to my defense, saying that people are trying to push my wagon the same way bandit's wagon was pushed. I was like, good good someone else see's it, he must definitely be a townie too, why would scum defend me?

Here's my last game, where a player gerantim was waffling. I told gerantim, I think you're town, and I think you're just an unsure player. gerantim said "yes, yes, yes you get me", and he basically was my buddy and I gave him such a hard town read. Link here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5647756

gerantim was vigged I think, and turned out to be scum. I'm like, aw hell. (Before you naysayers ask, I was town obviously that game).

Maybe I'm wrong about chaos the same way I'm wrong about gerantim. Just because someone came to my defense, and said, "yeah, you guys are likely trying to push Triton off a mislynch wagon again the same way Bandit was pushed", it doesn't

necessarily

mean it has to be scum.

Placing a counterwagon.

Vote: chaoslord

chaos and kyndy:

Chaos scum can go back to my original read, where he said he's just going to wait for something scummy to happen. Again, no real reads on the rest of the game, and no action.

Also there's a bit of OMGUS in 387: he asks that if he lynches me today, that we can lynch heph tomorrow. That seems like a way to get two townies (in my opinion at least).

But chaos came to my rescue and said i'm trying to be mislynched today. At face value, that's enough to be a town for me. "Finally, someone who sees the game I do". But he could be scum, buddying me. I don't know, it's very hard to guess, it's high risk high reward.

Spoiler: Fluff alert on buddying

I used to have a friend named Lucky2u who was protecting me all game and stopped me from being mislynched in our game together, and I turned on the poor guy and hammered him thinking I was being scum buddied. That was such an epic moment in that game IMO. It killed me when he flipped town.

this is triton's

VOTE: Chaos
Recently, he hasn't been providing any decent reads. He hasn't posted in 6 hours, and I was under the impression he was almost done.
Plus, Heph's VT claim has been addressed, and not mentioned again for days, but Chaos points it out as a possible tell. Sounds like scum grasping at straws.

Well, after a bit of a reread, I found some things:
-A little bit of early fencesitting in 130
-Slight refusal to scumhunt in 144
-Shows reluctance at a D2 mislynch based on the D1 mislynch that he was sooper supportive of
Is pretty inactive D2 (no vote [He votes uct, but that ends up being a nolynch], no FoS). Weak play. Replaces out. And Ranon hasn't said anything at all.
VOTE: Ranon. I feel good about this.

this is kibbles

tell me which of these is a good case

[zMuffinMan]

VOTE: MuffinMan

So you saw that coming too?

let me guess, you still think chaos-slot is scum (for the very good reasons you've talked about) but you're abandoning that wagon because what i'm doing is oh-so-scummy (for very good reasons you won't talk about)

[zMuffinMan]

i especially like kibbles second point, btw

that worked really well with mathbandit

who kibbles didn't comment on at all, btw!

[zMuffinMan]

i can see why people think you're town, anatole

your scum hunting efforts this game have not only brought scum to their knees, what with your eloquent cases and extreme accuracy, but your ISO just *screams* town

i mean, that case you pushed on mathbandit. you know, the one where he was scummy for stuff that wasn't even scummy. that could only have come from town!

and only a town player would say they still have their PGO shot. omg.

and your chaos case. pristine. flawless. amazing.

and wow, you nailed me pretty hard, too!

you're the paragon of towniness

[zMuffinMan]

which guys are 'scum buds'

[zMuffinMan]

are you calling me scum with chaos or are you trying to suggest i'm whiteknighting him by trying to derail the wagon onto kibbles, who up until recently you apparently thought was scum?

[zMuffinMan]

why dont you talk about who you think is scum, anatole

[zMuffinMan]

haha

good joke

i'm going to make you dead after kibbles, just fyi

[zMuffinMan]

look, i know you think you're being funny, but you're not

please take this seriously. mafia isn't a game

[zMuffinMan]

right

sure

whatever

you die after kibbles

[zMuffinMan]

if there are no better alternatives

who do you want to lynch? saki?

[zMuffinMan]

im pretty sure your reads are shit triton

[zMuffinMan]

Kibbles, Saki or Ranon slot would be my top lynch targets for today

y

[zMuffinMan]

im surprised you didn't try to kill me

also fairly certain the saki wagon had the entire scum team on it

[zMuffinMan]

eh, normally i'd advise against quickvoting like this in a lylo situation but seeing as it's pretty likely anatole and kibbles are scum, i'm not _that_ worried about any co-ordinated efforts to quickhammer

[zMuffinMan]

go ahead and what

[zMuffinMan]

it's pretty fucking sad that anyone has a town read on you

[zMuffinMan]

i'm not voting until i want to vote. even if kibbles is scum, i'd rather not end the day quickly (even apart from the fact we're waiting on a replacement)

[zMuffinMan]

i'm also contemplating just voting you, anatole

since there's almost no doubt in my mind you're scum and i want to make this a proper 1v1 (via the fact that you won't be hammered if i vote you)

[zMuffinMan]

im undecided on the third but seeing as i said i think the entire scum team is on the saki wagon, i'm sure you can take a guess at who i think is likely

also pretty sure that post is a scum claim seeing as you have two votes on you and you don't seem at all concerned about that

rather you're concerned that i called you and anatole scum

[zMuffinMan]

no, Anatole is super-town, can't you tell? He quick-hammered saki even though his reads were that ranon, kibble and I are scum, but that wasn't opportunistic in any way, that was because he had a change of heart and felt cutting discussion off immediately was super protown

and yes I am newbie town, thanks for noticing

[zMuffinMan]

nobody can be that dumb

there's 7 alive, today is lylo, you have 2 votes on you, in a theoretical universe where you were town, you'd know you have at least one scum currently voting you, and there's basically no way any two people off your wagon can be scum together from your PoV unless one of them is ranon

you're not worried though because you don't have anything to worry about

you're not in danger of being quicklynched because you're scum

[zMuffinMan]

prod dodge, this game really needs a ranon replacement or all meaningful discussion about the votes in this day phase is moot since it's technically possible for a scum team involving ranon to not be able to quick-hammer here

also got to thinking at some point about the possibility of a kibbles-anatole-ranon team but meh, it's something to go back and look at later maybe. probably not all that likely

[zMuffinMan]

technically unvoting isn't necessary from your pov since any scum team that doesn't include you has had the opportunity to hammer for a week now

[zMuffinMan]

hey anatole, unless micc is scum with like... riddleton and aegor, kibbles should be pretty much confirmed scum from your pov since both jelly and i have been online since he joined the game and kibbles hasn't been quickhammered

[zMuffinMan]

like we're pretty much lynching kibbles today and no one else, unless you can make sense of why he hasn't been quickhammered, and if you can, go ahead

[zMuffinMan]

because kibbles himself sure isn't trying to do that

[zMuffinMan]

whatever, this game was probably lost anyway

anatole is a dumb fuck