Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[SlickWilly]

Greetings and salutations.

So far I have only made it to page 10 of this epic struggle. A bit foreboding, as I see the sad fate of a wandering newb, and I myself am a wandering newb (at least to the site, I have some experience in general). I assure you that I won't quickhammer like some trigger happy loon. Aside from that, no promises.

I'll go ahead and give you folks a sneak-peak at my reaction so far. My "this-is-far-too-early-but-imma-show-em-my-gut-anyhow" FoS is Thor. He has come out hard on early lynchs, cemented on it, and had an air of certainty about it. There was light buddying on D1 with the gunner, but his 'logical deathmatch' with Blair seemed anti-town. Distracting the overly stoic townie bodes ill.

As the title says, it's a very shaky finger. Shaky like arthritis, not like certain of guilt. I'll be more detailed when I get up to speed, and I'll likely throw my hands in the air and retract that finger.

[SlickWilly]

So I'll probably have to wing it some to keep in the game as I pour over this novella of swinging townies.

Beyond weak reads from days 1 and 2 (some of 3), everything is still mostly incomplete. I figured I'd end my night with going over voting patterns, then pick back up tomorrow.

D1
droog (1)- Cheetory6
Cheetory6 (7)- Shaddowez, YYR, droog, Dyslexicon, JohnnyFarrar, Thor665, wgeurts LYNCHED
wgeurts (1)- Blair
Not Voting (3)- Phillammon, acryon, Fokem

D2 felt Null to me. Everyone wanted that guy gone.

D3

Phillammon (3)-

Blair, Dyslexicon, Fink

(L-2)

Thor665 (1)-

acryon

Fink (1)-

Pillammon

acryon (5)-

droog, Thor665, shaddowez, DCLVXI, Fink

LYNCHED

D4

Bicephalous Bob (5)-

Thor665, droog, Phillammon, Dyslexicon, Fink

LYNCHED

Phillammon (4)-

Shaddowez, Fink, Bicephalous Bob, Bert

(L-1)

The only thing that hits me hard is Thor/droog consistently voting town (and both having fairly aggressive personalities which I assume would bleed over to their scum-style). I do recall him saying he liked to bus, and he always read droog as town up until now, so him leading a bus seems probable, but I'm not sure if I'm pulling all this out of my ass or not. It seems too unconventional for what I understand is the forum meta.

Thoughts? Other analysis? It feels weak but for now it is the best I've got that hasn't been slammed against the wall for several pages. I'll UNVOTE: Thor for now (didn't mean to indicate a vote earlier). I like the droog lynch, but I'm not confident yet.

[SlickWilly]

should have been : Thor/droog consistently *lynch* town (or *vote for*).

[SlickWilly]

I still favor droog as being scum. Mixed with my worry at 1429 and with Fink's analysis at 1435, he seems the best lynch. Thor gets plenty of townreads on himself, but I'm glad I'm not the only one who gets a whiff of paranoia from his playstyle 1440. Might just be confirmation bias, though. I feel confident at least one is mafia. Thor has been more helpful to town, so I'd rather not risk him gone too early.

I do wonder what happened to Fink's intent to lynch on Phil from 825. Abandoned for better target, change of heart, maybe targeting easier wagons?

More than halfway through catching up to previous days, woo!. Not sure how much I've absorbed, though. Unless something changes, I'm anticipating voting for droog. Would anyone mind giving me a quick synopsis of their reads on living players? I'll do the same tomorrow when I'm better acquainted.

Oh, and lemme try this again. UNVOTE:

[SlickWilly]

I still favor droog as being scum. Mixed with my worry at #1429 and with Fink's analysis at #1435 , he seems the best lynch. Thor gets plenty of townreads on himself, but I'm glad I'm not the only one who gets a whiff of paranoia from his playstyle #1440. Might just be confirmation bias, though. I feel confident at least one is mafia. Thor has been more helpful to town, so I'd rather not risk him gone too early.

I do wonder what happened to Fink's intent to lynch on Phil from #825. Abandoned for better target, change of heart, maybe targeting easier wagons?

More than halfway through catching up to previous days, woo!. Not sure how much I've absorbed, though. Unless something changes, I'm anticipating voting for droog. Would anyone mind giving me a quick synopsis of their reads on living players? I'll do the same tomorrow when I'm better acquainted.

Oh, and lemme try this again. UNVOTE:

Ack, I butchered those links somehow. Post number should still line up, though.

I'll get myself straightened out eventually and actually check my posts before submitting.

[SlickWilly]

Looking through the last reads of the people I can confirm as town. I rechecked the votes and realized that Fink hammered Acyron (and was previously YYR), so he has hammered the last two innocents who have died. This has made me hesitant on the droog vote.

if I could decide on the three-player town block that would secure our win if correct, it'd be fink/bert/droog

Townreads Bert/Fink/droog and voted for Phil.

I support a lynch between Thor and Bob now.

Scumreads Thor and Bob, Bob flipped town and immediately voted Thor; then reincarnated as me.

The scummiest person on my wagon besides Thor is probably DCLXVI. If Phil were to be lynched and flip scum, then our last scum is Thor. If he flips town, I think it's Thor and probably Dys or DCLXVI.

Scumreads Thor and DCL (Bert)

People who don't like the Phillammon wagon should explain why - voting for Phillammon is fabulous, everyone who's anyone is doing it.

Last known push was on Phil, who she was confident on being scum.

From my perspective, that confirms my suspicion of Thor, hedges my suspicion of droog, and stirs a suspicion of Bert and Phillammon. So far I have gotten mostly null reads on Shaddowz and Fink....so I need to ISO their posts and dig deeper.

Thor, why would Acyron and Dys's suspicion of you be wrong?
Bert, why would Acryon suspect you and not Bob?
Phill, why would Bob and Blair's suspicion of you be wrong?

[SlickWilly]

Why would they suspect you enough be to their main lynch-target? Were they just wrong and dumb? Was it a conflicting personality or playstyle that gave them the wrong impression of you? Have you played a scummy game and regret some of your comments? You know that you are town (or not), so I want you to assess yourself (unconfirmed townie) as if you were in their shoes (confirmed townies).

Same goes to Thor (in regards to Acyron and Dys's suspicion) and Bert (in regards to Acryon's suspicion and Bob's townread).

[SlickWilly]

@Slick: Acryon was not alive when I replaced in.

Ah, sorry. I'd still like your take on their suspicion of DCL. Was there anything that you would disagree with their assessment that he seemed most likely mafia? You've inherited the spot from DCL/Fokem/Bins, did either three help your readings on the game knowing their alignment?

[quote="In post 1486
I can't address feels, I disagreed with her about Cheetory but I think a lot of that depends on whether you think I expected that derp hammer or not, and it is provably incorrect that I attacked everyone who scum read me because she was my strongest town read for quite a while while also being about the only person pushing a case on me. I do not think any of that qualifies as a valid case.

Acyron and Dys both seemed to go off of feels, as is much of my tunneling on you. Blair's reads on you deteriorated later in her game, I think mostly off of feels as well. I don't think you anticipated the derp-hammer from wgeurts, but I do think putting someone at -1 is a golden zone for scum. I don't really like the case, otherwise, but there is something about parts of it that toy with me.

I think this all comes down to people 'feeling' as if this game is being driven by scum, so your (at least from my perception) spot as townleader sounds an alarm. Without killing roles (and so many mislynches available), scum need to drive the game and appear most townie to outlast lynches. Their only weapon here is that they know the roles. Your confidence comes off as dangerous.

[SlickWilly]

So obviously I haven't put too much time into looking through old Bert games yet, but I've been skimming a few, and he does indeed prod-dodge some as either alignment it seems.... I noticed this from a scum game (Mini 1602) of his (Bert is part of the scum hydra Perpetual Nonsense.)

...

we weren't trying to lurk, just lurking in this kinda game felt kinda like a good idea so we wouldn't give anything away easily (prolong our life), plus the short DL's made it easy to get by with little activity.

i think we said in scum qt that we anticipated living until day 3 and then any more is borrowed time. i dont know how we didnt get lynched

With the lack of hardly any activity on his slot before he replaced in, and with us all not putting much pressure on him as Bert pointed out (because we're all caught up in scumhunting people we have more information and more reads on) we have made it very easy for Bert to lurk. And as scum he thinks this is a good strategy.

And it probably is.

i know, getting serious in this game is draining, so i made a terrible attempt to say im clever enough to plan things so far in advance and do 360s

but hey, Thor accurately said im scummy for that. it's just kinda amazing it took a terrible terrible flip flop for him to actually vote me when he has hinted at me being scum all day long (and end of Day 4). And, before I replaced in he had DCL my predcessor as scum with Bob.

And yeah, I understand that I'm your preference. It's funny, I could not muster up anything 100% serious until I got Thor to vote me. His intimidating presence was enough to scare me into saying something out of character.

I have no issues with their suspicions on DCL, because he like me prod dodged and made empty promises for the majority of his time in this game.

Bert...I'd hate voting for that puppy dog face...but these things sound really bad. I wonder if he is more the self-deprecating type, or this is a kind of pity-ploy.

Between Bert and Fink, I'm willing to jump on the Bert lynch after double checking the previous occupants of that spot. I can't get any good reads on Fink (mix of goodtown/scummy), droog (so many people townread him, but I can't see it for some reason, or Shaddowz (lurkish).

[SlickWilly]

Couldn't find Fokem, but Bin and DCL seemed a decent lynch after a (surprisingly quick) read. I may not be on soon enough tomorrow to get the vote in, so I'll open the hammer.

VOTE: Bert

[SlickWilly]

You have to admit, he made a good case against himself. I am surprised by this flip. I'm sorry Bert, those sad puppy eyes were legit after all.

So far, the known townies were confident in the case against Phill (Blair, Bert, and Bob), Thor (Acryon), and Fink (Bert). I'll have to reread DCL/Bin's reads to recall their main suspects.

I wanted to see if Fink or Phill hammered Bert. I had figured if Bert flipped scum, Phill's hammer would be an easy bus. With a Bert townie, I can't read the hammer. Maybe I'm putting too much stock into known-townie reads. I intend to be more interactive and less retro-active from here on out. I'll give it a day to digest and get back to ya'll.

[SlickWilly]

I'm not fond of the Shaddowz lynch today (lurker policy lynch). I would have much preferred him gone earlier, but with one mislynch left...I think there are better options.

We have little to go on with Shaddowz. Best case scenario, we get 2 two mislynches without any new information if he flips scum. Worst case scenario, we go into LyLo without any new information if he town-flips. I agree that he should be lynched on the premise of coasting/lurking...but I'd rather this lynch gain information.

So here is where I'm at now:

My gut says Thor. It is as if ragnarok is occurring inside my intestines...but it could just be gas. If lynched now, either way he flips gives us a wealth of information (he's interacted with the most people). If he flipped scum, his partner would be easier to track. If he flipped town, he would be the most useful confirmed townie (despite his horrible voting record). I'd probably sheep whatever he said to do next if he flipped town.

My logic says Phill. Given my previous approach (with previous town flips), he has the most heat. He's dodged d3 and d4 wagons, which also tingles my willy-senses. His flip would give us some information. Much more than Shaddowz, a fair amount less than Thor. I'd pen him with Fink if he did flip scum.

droog/Fink/Shaddowz I haven't gotten much. droog sometimes doesn't make sense to me, Fink kind of buddy'd Phil D3 and D4, and Shaddowz is lurky. Something about the previous droog/fink fight didn't seem town-to-town, but beyond that I have little.

I'm probably going to get fairly drunk tonight, so I may start posting crazy things or not posting at all until tomorrow. Be warned...

[SlickWilly]

As I previously said, my gut went thor/droog scum....but I haven't delved deep into potential thor-scum partners, really. I can't answer that solidly, because this nightless-nonkilling game gives us no information to go off of. Everything seems to come off of suspicion/gut until we get more information (especially with the one dead mafia dying before any real interaction). I'll openly admit I'm more familiar with standard setups where there is at least one information gathering position to run off of. Much of my hesitation comes from that. But if Thor flipped scum then I'd go droog-shaddowz-phil.

My biggest hesitation with Thor is his consistent vote on town-lynches. You seem capable and oriented to picking apart who is most likely mafia (more so than others), but super-town reads to me almost suggest scum. I suppose I'm WIFOM'ing in my head about this. I found some guy who had a picture in his signature that said to win you should sheep him and thor....sheeping thor seems like a mafia win so far. That is about as far towards individual meta as I've went...and that was happenstance. Not a great case, I suppose, but it hits me given my perspective.

I will captain clever as much as I see fit to push who I think hasn't been pushed. I need to push Phil and Fink to get interactions...but you were my initial suspicion (outside of 50+ page reading), so I'm starting there. I do like a shadowz lynch, but it makes more sense to me to lynch my gut-read rather than a policy null-read at this point.

I can be convinced of a Shaddowz lynch, if someone could give me a

good

scum-partner read. Yet I find that a hard sell. If Thor townflipped and my gut was proven wrong, then I'd be compelled to abaondon my gut. Which would leave me with my brain (which would say Phil, or shaddowz if I sheeped your current vote). If Shaddowz flips I have little-nothing. If Thor flips I have trust to work with.

Oh, and speaking of pressure....

Fink, why did you change votes from Phil in previous days?

Something comes off as protective. Do you feel confident that Phil is town, or did you think the cases on others were better?

[SlickWilly]

But if Thor flipped scum then I'd go droog-shaddowz-phil.

you have to think thor and i
masochists
for us to have planned this last spate in a scum qt

I'd have to go over the interactions again, but previous interactions gave me a thor/droog 'distant buddy' feeling (during my long read). I'm still debating the Thor/Phill vote, though. I think I'll wait until the other players chime in a bit more.

[SlickWilly]

Put Phil, and Droog into ISO together, and start at the start of Day 4. I know that section is an unholy mess, but mostly what I'm hoping you'll look at is the three of us disagreeing about my ability to get Phil lynched at the end of Day 3 instead of Acryon.

Facts of the case aside (although I maintain it was impossible and I'm not unreasonable for thinking so), could you focus on the interaction between Droog, Phil, and I about that issue? And then like just comment on it a bit or something. Please?

I'm assuming you are referring to around 857. That interaction is what makes me feel that wasn't town-on-town. You made good, salient points...and Phil/droog seemed to make intent to see you lynched rather than rebuke you.

It made more sense after reading:

To clarify before people get confused, I think Willy is the most likely town in Phil/Droog/Willy and I actually think Droog being the only scum in there is reasonably likely.

So this would amount to a phil/droog/johnny. I never saw a connection between phil and droog, but droog had been generally helpful enough to be read heavily town during the early game. Going over that led me to believe in a plausible droog/phil lynch and then endgame. droog seemed dodgey.

But was he buddying Phil? If 1603 is true, then that breaks down. I got a droog/thor feeling early game...is droog a mafia who would buddy their partner more/less? Flippant and generally buddy'ish as a pokerface? What do we learn if we lynch him?

I agree with 1607 Shaddowz needs to put forward his views.

I'm prone to a Phil/droog or Thor/droog with Shaddowz as a random variant (and possible lurker-policy lynch to rule out that variant). If those combinations are the most likely, it comes to a shaddowz or droog lynch. droog, I do appreciate the opportunity to continue to tunnel Thor. That may help eliminate a potential.

VOTE: droog

Openly expressing intent to hammer Shaddowz if that wagon gets to -1.

[SlickWilly]

Sorry guys, was waiting for Phil's replacement to come forward. My views haven't really changed. Phil/droog, Phil/shaddowz, or droog/shaddowz as mafia make the most sense right now.

Anyone see a disconnect in those pairings?