Open 573: C9++

[Heartless]

alright, well i see tth already called massive on the bullshitty meta
he wants your opinion tth, go ahead and give it to him

[Heartless]

Okay. I tried gather some understanding of from the formers who played in this slot..but i hit the dead-end. there are way too many players who replaced into slot. So today i am going sit back and look others cases.. so i am going to sheep whoever brings best case and convinces me.

>scumflip
>nothing to look at?

?????????????

[Heartless]

mmmmmmmmmmm
i'll try to get tth to hurry up and do her thing for day2, but i'm thinking massive's a more likely choice for mafia and nachomollie just whiteknighted the fuck out of anen

sk is probably anen or aa9slot

[Heartless]

anenSK

is
actually
.....

not crazy
>molliekill makes sense
>repetition of "oh everyone thinkz i'm so dumb" to build "stupid" image is actually to his advantage (avoids nk)
>i thought he was scum on day 1 to begin with

[Heartless]

votes already there

[Heartless]

You know good and well it isn't bastard.

You also know good and well the difference between Antihero and I.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Also, as a Hydra, you should have synchronized your heads' reads by now. Oh My Gods, it's Day5! I think you're trying to hint that I'm lying and faking.

are you a sporting man, anen? i have a proposition for you (and no, it's not the kind of "propositions" sthar approaches TTH with...)

first off, let's cut through the bullshit

i know you're the SK
and i think your attempts at mafia hunting are pretty genuine, though you're very badly mistaken (you really think mollie's interactions w/ tth is scum/scum?)

otherwise, i think you've been playing a pretty good game so far.

i also know aa9 is the remaining mafia. (grey and mollie bussed when it didn't matter, didn't bus when it did. brian was also really chummy w/ mollie.) i would be willing to bet the game on this.

so i'll tell you what i'm going to do
i'm going to vote aa9 and if she doesn't flip scum, i will self-vote tomorrow.

if i'm wrong, you have 2 free mislynches (and at least a really good chance of us absorbing your rival's kill)
if i'm right, you will have eliminated your rival, will be able to nightkill us, and have a free ticket to lylo with a decent chance of winning (since you seem to have davesaz sufficiently snowed)

either way, you benefit

how about it?
VOTE: aa9

[Heartless]

– no town would EVER self-vote. In a situation like this no scum would EVER self-vote. You're simply lying.

oh come on. don't tell me you don't remember our first game.

– if you THOUGHT that I am the SK you would Nightkill (or would have Nightkilled) me as Mafia or would at least TRY to lynch me (regardless of your alignment). Why the f-ck are you voting for ArcAngel then?

you know, when someone hands you a gift, a "thank you" usually follows.

I'm afraid that I'm simply too dumb to understand the situation.

repeat it enough times and people think it's true. master stroke.

I'm telling you all why: because my case about ArcAngel was right and you want me to sheep you with my vote. So, she's indeed the SK and Heartless, you f-cking know that for sure because you're the mafia! Let me guess what might come Tomorrow after ArcAngel's flip. You Nightkill someone (most probably Davesaz) and start advocating "wow, Aneninen is scum and he got us to lynch ArcAngel"! Perfect plan, eh? SK is lynched Today, mislynch is ready for Tomorrow. Thanks, but NO.

mmmmmmmm i don't think brian killed mollie n2. so no, aa9's not the sk.
and once aa9 flips scum, your towncred will still be completely intact so there's really no need to worry about it (b/c lolz multiball). it'll be your game to lose at that point.

[Heartless]

sthar
nero

get your fists out of your asses

neither of you are scum by (anti)associative with mollie
i don't think sthar would pick fights with mollie and tth like he has as sk
rereading nero's d1 activity doesn't look like someone trying to dodge nightkills

anen's probably not mafia either. i think he just lucked into being mollie and nacho's whiteknight for towncred target.

that leaves the aa9 slot, which makes sense given that grayfoxx was a scumbutt and brian stuck to mollie pretty well

ALSO CHECK THIS OUT

for everyone's favorite "sk bp-got-popped" theory, there's this:

who's the ONLY VOTE the aa9 slot has made since the massclaim?
guess.
here's a spoiler:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Aneninen

Your ISO is full of over-explanation, absolving responsibility for your reads, and a lot of do-nothing busywork.

this isn't brain surgery
they popped anen's bp n2 and majiffy put 2 and 2 together after he saw the claimed claims/rb's.
n3 is prob missing a kill because they stacked the kills or because brian was a lurkaderp and missed the kill.
monkeyman probably stopped a kill last night or they stacked again (b/c aa9 doesn't get risk assessment or hasn't caught up yet so she doesn't really know what's going on)

[Heartless]

Thanks for making me remember how terrible my gameplay was in Muskoka. You're doing the same thing as Mollie did: trying to convince everyone how stupid my gameplay is. Did you make up this plan together at Pre-game? As far as I can remember you did the same on Day1...

no

you

are trying to convince everyone how stupid your gameplay is

and it's worked because you absolutely love the VI image you've built because it's equated with harmlessness (good for dodging nks)

proof:
i was talking about fakegod and his "self-vote tomorrow if your read is wrong" shtick. that's what we were talking about. obvious.
but you reached in a pulled out "ANTI'Z ZO MEAN AND PICKING ON ME HEZ SAYING I SO SUCKZORZ"
it's to your advantage and you know it and you're wallowing in it at every chance you get

[Heartless]

@Everyone! If I'm wrong, please explain me why, because right now I can see no other possibilities than mafia = Heartless; SK = ArcAngel.

explanation:

if i knew aa9 was the sk, i don't think we would have had much trouble getting the brian slot lynched. i also would have had 2 nights to kill her (which i would have done because i understand basic mafia theory and in multiball, other kills=bad).

the only slot with a consistent vote on another slot SINCE THE MASSCLAIM (when all the info was out there) was majiffy's vote on you / aa9's leaving the vote on you. she didn't do much to solidify the vote, but then again she hasn't really shown she's up with things. everyone else has been moving around their vote, not indicative of "holy shit i have to get this opposite team lynched". so that narrows it down.

[Heartless]

spoon feeding time (putting aside nero's tinfoil theory):

>the scumteam popped the SK's bp on night 2. that's a certainty because mafia didn't kill themselves and the rb's didn't stop anything and mollie/nacho was active enough not to miss the kill.
>the last scum would have known who the sk was THE SECOND THE MASSCLAIM ENDED
>nero cain, sthar, Anen, and us have been keeping up with the thread enough to know all this and would have known who the SK was if they were mafia
>THE ONLY SLOT that's in limbo is the greyfoxx slot because of the sheer volume of occupants / not catching up
(hint: the one who i think caught on was majiffy and he was no scrub)

and no one else was frantically trying to stop that massive lynch from going through and the only one not voting it/showing no interest in voting it was majiffy

[Heartless]

sthar

nero

get your asses in here

you berate us for losing interest and i show up with the solution to the game and you go quiet

[Heartless]

Judging by AA9 and Anen's reactions alone, I'm thinking there's a good chance Anti's on the right track.

-TTH

[Heartless]

>the scumteam popped the SK's bp on night 2. that's a certainty because mafia didn't kill themselves and the rb's didn't stop anything and mollie/nacho was active enough not to miss the kill.
>the last scum would have known who the sk was THE SECOND THE MASSCLAIM ENDED

I think these are good premises to start with.

Nero Cain had his vote on massive the entire day. Given massive's non-SK flip, I would agree that it doesn't seem characteristic of someone who is gunning for the SK. MonkeyMan and dave are claimed power roles. MonkeyMan has since died and dave is more or less confirmed due to the set-up and other claims. Anen's vote was mobile: he first voted for Majiffy in post 1716 and then agreed to a massive lynch in post 1763 without much fuss.

That means the mafia is probably off the massive wagon.

sthar was laid back all of Day 4 and actually didn't cast a vote at all. It's a bit of a moot point since his and mollie's earlier arguments make me doubt very seriously he's mafia, but I would think sthar as scum would try to do

something

. There's also the point sthar made himself about cross-killing the SK. If sthar really was mafia, I would think we'd have seen an SK flip to start the day.

For that matter, if

anyone

keeping up with the thread was mafia, I would think we'd have seen an SK flip to start the day. That could be explained by MonkeyMan's roleblock succeeding, but that still doesn't explain the problem of the low-resistance massive wagon. If the mafia goon was going to do as sthar said and save killing the SK for the night, they would have to be pretty confident in not drawing the kill from the SK. I don't think anyone here fits that profile given that everyone other than the claimed roleblockers is under their fair share of suspicion.

sthar, Nero, do you have anything to say about the methodology here? I'm coming to the same conclusions as Antihero.

-TTH

[Heartless]

LOL

[Heartless]

Watching Nero and Sthar not post.

^^^^^

while we're waiting for sthar, please rank the following people in order of increasing adorableness:
aa9, anen, gif, mollie, nacho, tso, tth, sthar, jingle

[Heartless]

Heartless' activity dropped after d1 and he's trying to lynch mafia (wich actully benifits the sk)

everyone's got their thumbs up their asses re: anen

[Heartless]

On the same level as betting davesaz is scum?

Anti's already talked about the lack of an SK kill being mafia not paying attention and, right on queue, ArcAngel shows up to show she hasn't actually kept up with the game and now she's just pushing the biggest competing wagon.

Nero, could you elaborate on your hang-up with sthar?

-TTH

[Heartless]

have you looked at the setup? if not, plz do so: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B

[Heartless]

Also i am pointing fingers at Fonz.

reads progression on sthar

go

[Heartless]

(1) 50Shades might have been buddying Heartless but, I have another opinion because they were constantly townreading 50Shades.

that's not even kind of true

(2) 50Shades and Heartless were pushing a wagon against you for a long time.

so?

(3) Check out 1241! They built up a huge case which seemed to be "la wow" but check out the scumlist there: MTD, Wgeurts and Sthar! Two of them flipped town and I'm talking with the third one now.

again, so?

(4) They're calling me SK but they haven't provided a real case. On the other hand, check out 1802 and some of their later posts! How the f-ck would that make sense if they were town?!

also not even kind of true.

tack on the fact that you won't lynch aa9 (because you know the sk read is bullshit) and you're sk.

[Heartless]

Well thanks for the (albiet underhanded) compliment. What are your questions?

-TTH

[Heartless]

i'm pretty sure there's scum in:
The Fonz
Heartless (Antihero and TellTaleHeart)
davesaz
ArcAngel9
Aneninen
Nero Cain

[Heartless]

NOW SOMEONE GIVE ME MY SCUMMIE

[Heartless]

Could you explain the internal hydra discussions?

Here's the bottom line. Antihero is friends with pirate mollie and talked up this game before it even started. I could tell he was excited about it, particularly that she was in the game.

Which is what gave me the bad feelings about 50 shades in the first place. If Anti and mollie knew each other so well, why was it that Anti and mollie's dynamic seemed... dysfunctional at best? Nothing ever seemed to be getting done and it felt like anything substantive that Anti had to say (i.e. - the Aneninen read) was minimized or ignored while his bad / not-really-well-thought-out reads were promoted. I tried to get a no-bullshit 50 Shades read from Anti for quite a while and was actually pretty excited at the beginning of Day 2 when he said 50 Shades votes were good. But when he took it back, I immediately felt like we took 2 steps back. It was really frustrating because all in all I felt like: internet crush on mollie + accepting a townread on mollie unquestioningly = Antihero's not listening to a damn thing I have to say. That's why I was so pissed at Anti when mollie finally flipped scum because I felt bitter about not being listened to and made to feel like

I

was the one with bad reads.

To be fair, for our first two games here, he actually did have spot-on reads while I had bad reads. Because of this and the fact Anti's a pretty smart guy in RL, I'm working from the assumption that Anti is a really good mafia player (and I still have no reason to doubt that) and as such, will have strong reads. I never pushed mollie harder because I just felt like Anti probably had better reads than I did, because I felt like I was pissing mollie off with no real proof behind my accusations, and because Anti and mollie already had a history and I didn't really feel like I had any credibility to argue with him.

You try to call the entire scumteam in one go. This seems overconfident at best, and out-of-keeping with your previous play.

Alright, the hub of the entire theory was that

massive didn't have any counterwagons

. I was wondering about that, because at that point, I was still assuming there was just a mafia (because there had only been one kill the night before). With a mafia of two or three members, I figured that there would be some form of resistance to the massive wagon, but there was none. By those indications, I thought the working hypothesis of "massive=scum" was wrong and therefore needed revision.

Yes, it was a house of cards, but

I got the absolute best feeling out of it

. I finally felt like Anti and I were on the same page which was, psychologically, very important to me at that point.

Seems to me the most obvious explanation for that trend was 'People were frustrated at the no-lynch, and felt that Massive was scum who wriggled off the hook because his buddies weren't willing to vote him.'

No, and I've already kind of talked about this. The massive wagon sprung up literally hours before the deadline and the fact he wasn't lynched was more likely due to the fact that

simply not enough users were on at the time to secure a lynch

. Since the whole "wriggling out of a lynch" reasoning didn't stand up to scrutiny, that didn't feel like a good reason to push a default massive lynch.

You (well, anti) subsequently vote for massive which also kinda rings alarm bells, since your 'realisation' depended on Massive = town. Did you change your mind, or did anti do it without consulting him? Was there any internal dissent from you?

The house of cards I built was long destroyed at that point (as was my ego). After wgeurts flipped town, I knew the line of domino's I stacked up were all laying on the floor.

For the internal hydra discussions every day from Day 3, I pretty much let Anti have the wheel since I put together what I thought was a pretty theory that all came crashing down. At that point, I was pissed at Antihero for townreading mollie and Antihero was pissed at me for being pissed at him.

-TTH

[Heartless]

It's inconvenient that sthar isn't here anymore because there's things in the ISO that put him squarely in the uncanny valley: post 1409 where sthar objects to MonkeyMan's suggestion that the mollie kill was not a vig shot comes to mind.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Alright Fonz, let's go back to what happened on the tail end of yesterday because it would be helpful if I could follow the logic chain from beginning to end.

At the core of the line of inquiry, I'm inferring the questioning was about the nature of Antihero and I's hydra dynamic because the purpose was to gauge the authenticity of the "hydra dissonance." That was the linchpin because the answer to that question had a domino effect into basic alignment-indicative issues. Yesterday it was left short of conclusions I

was

assuming because you didn't want to influence the answers I gave. Now I want you to actually spell them out because there remains loose ends.

Even if you think it should be obvious, I want to hear it from the horse's mouth, Fonz. What

exactly

was the endpoint of all the doubts you had about me yesterday? What were you afraid of?

-TTH

[Heartless]

Nero, I'd like to talk about how you're approaching this nightkill analysis.

From your first post today, post 1927, you're approaching it under the assumption that the serial killer took the people into LYLO that gave him/them the highest chance of winning. Is this correct?

-TTH

[Heartless]

I thought the whole idea behind you saying you wanted to no lynch yesterday was based on the premise that scum wanted to cross-kill. In post 1804 you seemed to understand this. Now you're basing the nightkill analysis off of who had what reads going into LYLO?

Why?

-TTH

[Heartless]

I fail to see your point. Me considering a nl yesterday 'cause I felt that it was a good move for the town and also being able to see scum giving themselves the best chance to win is not in conflict. Both are also partially true since Anen shot conf town 'cause he thought it gave him a better chance and the sk killed Anen 'cause it bettered their chance to win. Now MAYBE its all just a coincidence that pretty obviously town Nero is left alive and TSO's older brother who is 99% more likely to vote me than you.

My point is that there's two different theories about why last night went the way it went.

The implication of the one you're presenting today is that we're the serial killer and we left you and the Fonz alive because you'd vote each other. The other is that the kill's motivated by the goal of cross-killing. They're not inherently mutually exclusive, but they're very different in nature in the fact that one is a forced-hand situation and the other is not. From you're posts today you seem to be going with the theory that it's

not

. But you've already acknowledged that the serial killer kill is guided by a mafia hunt and

vice versa

.

You said yesterday you were "the only one" to catch scum this game. Why do you feel that way?

-TTH

[Heartless]

As I mentioned yesterday, I was not thrilled with Fonzie's 1909. First of all, he was activly scumhunting you (heartless) but he didn't care if you answered his question. IMO, I think town would care. It also looks like him being anxious to get to night. Would an experienced player do that?

Non-sequitur

. I do not follow. What does experience level have to do with this?

-TTH

[Heartless]

So I was reading you as the better player. And yet, the hydra, in general, when you were dissonant, Anti seemed to be 'winning,'

Antihero's been a member of MS since 2009. I've only been here about half a year. In our first two games, Anti's reads were good while mine were not. He definitely has the proven proficiency on his side.

He might not be the most transparent player, but he has an irritating habit of being right a lot.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Expand on 'Uncanny Valley?' (I know what it means in general, just not what you're saying as relates to Mafia).

When I say uncanny valley, I mean things that are

just

off to where it gives an unsettling effect. sthar making a remark about there being a "vig with a brain"

looks

mostly like a smug gloat about his 50 Shades read being right, but I'm wondering why he went out of his way to pooh-pooh MonkeyMan's idea of there being an serial killer.

Nero Cain lamenting that he's the only one who "found scum" (which I could have sworn I saw a couple times) is another "uncanny valley" example, which is why I asked about it.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Yes, and it's glaring.

If we were SK and Aneninen already "popped" the bulletproof, we would

certainly

have been a higher priority kill for him in the last couple nights than either davesaz (who was townreading Anen) or MonkeyMan. Anti's theory may have been that Anen was SK, but based on the interactions between him and pirate mollie, I thought Anen was mafia. Regardless, if you're mafia, I would have to think someone with a kill that suspects you is a much higher priority than an already-castrated town special (i.e. davesaz).

The fact that Aneninen declined to kill the SK despite knowing who he was suggests that the SK didn't suspect Aneninen and he felt secure that he wouldn't be killed.

-TTH

He saw the conftown as a bigger threat.

"Conftown" with no powers is a bigger threat than someone with a kill suspecting you.

Say the sentence out loud. Even leaving out the part where davesaz was strongly townreading Anen and the part where he already

thoroughly

stepped on our toes, does that sound right to you?

There's a gap that needs filling, Fonz. How are you doing so.

-TTH

I was the first one to point to Aneninen being mafia before he turned it around on me. He was mitigating a threat before it emerged.

How do you draw the conclusion he wants the world where he can live

today

? Surely, the win condition implies a

lot

more than that.

-TTH

pick upppppp

[Heartless]

fonz are you seriously making the argument that anen would let us live after these posts if he knew we had a kill? to go after fucking davesaz?

why didn't you care about my version of the story for the hydra dynamics?

-antihero

[Heartless]

Are there any obvious flaws in this scenario?

you're leaving out the fact that NONE OF US were realistic lynches at the time. even if anen came at any one of the 3 of us with all the reasoning in the world, he probably wasn't EVER going to get any of us lynched. he omgus'ed because he didn't want tth making him look weak. i mean, what you're guessing here is that he poked the beehive and then... what... sat around for 2 nights waiting to get wrecked? there might be auniverse where that makes sense, but this one is not it.

and he wasn't planning on jauntily skipping into prisoner's dilemma with us either. TTH has a lot more charisma then he does and would win out in a 1v1.

if he was going to get rid of the sk, the nightkill was the only way he was going to do it.

HE JUST DIDN'T WANT TO DO IT.

because the benefits of keeping the sk w/ shitty reads around outweighed the potential of him getting ko'd.

-antihero

[Heartless]

so fonz where is this anen scumread of yours past the early stuff? you kind of mentioned it early on in the reread while kinda' sorta' agreeing w/ him re: us, anywhere else?

-antihero

[Heartless]

1. Yes, I see that as entirely plausible. There is nothing super-threatening to Anen in those posts. I half wondered if you'd linked the wrong posts. 1642 is "He may be scum, he may not be."

...that progressed to, "mollie is sabotaging anti's only good read, anen is scum" when the reread was finished.
lynches are pretty predictable and nightkills really aren't. if you're anen and someone with a gun is saying "i suspect you" you're saying you would leave them around?

2. Why should I care? It's TTH's thought process, and the impact you had on it, that I was particularly interested in, and which I thought would give me insight into your alignment.

And this post is also giving me a 'Slinging mud' vibe. If you are town, this is not exactly helping persuade me of that.

just in general i'm asking why you're only talking to that head of the hydra. that's what i'm wanting out of you because i want to know.

if you think she's smarter than i am, then it is what is it. just say what it is, though. i can take it. (it won't be the first time i heard it either)

I can see him valuing a dead RB over you, preferring to try to get you lynched during the day, sure. (Or he tried to kill the SK and monkey blocked it. That's not impossible, though last night suggests it's more likely that Anen at least tried to shoot the PR, because there were much better arguments for taking out monkey than taking out Dave, and he still chose to kill Dave). You were the only player other than AA9 to get votes yesterday. Yes, I am aware that the other player who voted you is dead. It's also worth noting that the theory you used to suspect Anen was shot to pieces with the AA9 townflip. It's not impossible you reconsider in those circumstances.

he could try all he wanted. he still needed the votes from sthar AND nero that he likely wasn't going to get (esp sthar). in the meantime, he would've had to be DAMN SURE that he could dodge the kill because once he started, there was no putting the genie back in the bottle.

The other thing is that I feel like TTH's MTD read was probably genuine, and that explains the MTD kill much better than anything in Nero's ISO.

b/c TTH would get a HUGE part of the theory she made TO GET MY APPROVAL wrong and then turn around and say "lol let's keep going with it" after she couldn't give less than a shit about my approval and i'd already been proven to have had a bad read in mollie

i thought you said you thought she was logical.

So let's be clear here. You are claiming that (I guess, you are claiming that I should believe that...) Nero was kept around as SK because of his shitty reads (Sthar, AA9 suspicions). In that case, he's banking on Nero shooting me overnight (or hoping that Nero also shoots Dave) and then choosing you over him in a post-NL shootout, while he knows he's going to shoot straight.

you were scumreading each other's slots. if Anen knew we were SK, he COULDN'T have thought he was safe from the bullet because tth and i both thought (i actually said it out loud too) that sthar and nero weren't mollie's buddies. at that point, his only shot would've been to work nero/you's paranoia of our slot (both of you had it) and get rid of the conftown.

i don't know, now that i'm talking through it it makes more sense that anen thought he could talk nero into voting us. fonz didn't actually give any feedback on tth's responses before the day ended yesterday, so it's more unpredictable.

tth, i'm clearly the second fiddle here. what are you thinking?

[Heartless]

While crudely written, Anti's point got me to think of something. I need a moment...

-TTH

[Heartless]

Anen's strategy going into the endgame was to utilize a form of Prisoner's dilemma. This is evidenced by the fact he chose to keep the serial killer alive. From Fonz's post, I'm implying that the most likely move the next day would hypothetically be a no-lynch, which seems right given the game theory behind prisoner's dilemma. In order for Anen to win in that situation, he would have to talk the serial killer into shooting a townie.

In that situation, it's a game of probabilities for Anen. Anen obviously didn't plan on being killed, but he thought his best strategy was to bring a townie into endgame he thought the serial killer would turn on.

Therein, we can find the solution. Who did Anen think would shoot a townie instead of him?

-TTH

[Heartless]

She made it to win your approval? The MTD read stands independent of everything else in that chain of analysis, as I pointed out in my previous answer.

I think he's referring to this:

Yes, it was a house of cards, but I got the absolute best feeling out of it. I finally felt like Anti and I were on the same page which was, psychologically, very important to me at that point.

Also, I'm of the school of thought that after a single bad read is revealed

all of them

need to come into question. That's what Anti's referring to.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Who is "you?" If the claim is me/Nero, then that is false, because I didn't scumread Nero yesterday (or at least didn't say out loud that I did). I had a creeping suspicion that Nero was setting me up for today at the end of the day with his #1909 shit, but I mean, Nero's just pretty bad, and I was still expecting AA9 to flip some flavor of scum, and had Anen as more likely scum than Nero. If it's me/Anen, then Anen was claiming to strongly town-read me.

I don't think the paranoia you had for Nero would've been bankable. However, I did get the feeling that your bad feelings about me yesterday led you to the conclusion I was mafia. This was reinforced by the conclusions given in post 1939, specifically the possibilities listed #2 and #3. That's what I suspected the "uncharitable assumption" of post 1902 was.

On the other hand, Nero had paranoia about everyone in the game at that point. In fact, he said he looking for the "two dullest turds in a pile of shit" in post 1845.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Fundamentally, Fonz's suspicions are a lot more refined and specific. Nero's are a lot more general. I'm not sure what details mattered and which ones didn't, though.

I have to think about this.

-TTH

[Heartless]

This theory answers Anti's objections to my previous case, that Anen was trying to get rid of you during the daytime, but at night went for the more risk-averse option. This seems the best explanation for why Anen pushed you yesterday - with you-SK lynched, he'd have killed dave overnight and been left with him/me/aa9/nero alive today, and his choice of who to kill to set up the best possible endgame after the inevitable 4p MiLo no-lynch.

still doesn't explain why he would be playing for the win then switch over to playing for the tie at the last second. if he was cool with the tie, he would've seen the writing on the wall and gone "fuck it" and went ahead and lynched aa9. you think he would've antagonized the person with the kill to the bitter end in that situation?

-antihero

[Heartless]

tth, there's another half of the equation you're not looking at: the sk's pov.

the sk already knew that the mafia knew who he was so you should think about how that dynamic plays into it.

-antihero

[Heartless]

seriously, get the goddamn chip off your shoulder.

she's making the point that anen didn't know if the sk was going to fuck him over or not. you can use whatever tortured euphemism you want, it's still a tie.

-antihero

[Heartless]

go ahead and vote who you think is right tth. if it's nero, we're fucked though because fonz isn't listening to goddamn thing you have to say and insistent that he's right.

doesn't matter, you can still have post-game bragging rights.

-antihero

[Heartless]

nero what are you thinking?

anything...?

nothing...?

something...?


what?
-antihero

[Heartless]

Yeah, I understand PD perfectly well. Thanks for explaining in a super-patronizing manner, though. It's not a PD, because at the point where you know who the other 'player' in the game is, there's no co-operate/defect outcome possible. It's C/C or D/D, and C/C is just obviously better.

He'd play for the tie if he expects to lose in the alternative scenario. (Also, ties between antitown groups are usually considered joint wins).

if you're going to be insecure about it, at least get the "PD" (lol) straight.

what i was just talking about, the whole thing with mafia knowing who the SK is, works the other way around. ACCORDING TO YOUR OWN THEORY anen already thoroughly blew his cover, so IT WOULD ACTUALLY BE "PD."

yeah, of course c/c is just obviously better for everyone, BUT NOT EVERYONE PICKS THAT THAT'S WHY THE DILEMMA EXISTS IN THE FIRST PLACE. people get greedy. and why not? the object for the mafia and sk is to win alone, not win with the other faction.

if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."

that's obvious.

[Heartless]

You're being a fucking douche. Stop.

i know. i am.

tth isn't though, so don't project condescension onto her.

[Heartless]

if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."

THERE WAS A WINDOW OF TIME WHEN AA9 WAS AT L1

that anen posted in himself

in your theory, this would've been the time to drop the act and go for the tie.

it wouldn't have been to go into the night in silence and hope the sk was also going for the tie.

[Heartless]

if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."

THERE WAS A WINDOW OF TIME WHEN AA9 WAS AT L1

that anen posted in himself

in your theory, this would've been the time to drop the act and go for the tie.

it wouldn't have been to go into the night in silence and hope the sk was also going for the tie.

based on this, i think tth was on the right track with what she said last night.

[Heartless]

Anen's strategy going into the endgame was to utilize a form of Prisoner's dilemma. This is evidenced by the fact he chose to keep the serial killer alive. From Fonz's post, I'm implying that the most likely move the next day would hypothetically be a no-lynch, which seems right given the game theory behind prisoner's dilemma. In order for Anen to win in that situation, he would have to talk the serial killer into shooting a townie.

In that situation, it's a game of probabilities for Anen. Anen obviously didn't plan on being killed, but he thought his best strategy was to bring a townie into endgame he thought the serial killer would turn on.

Therein, we can find the solution. Who did Anen think would shoot a townie instead of him?

-TTH

^this for reference btw

[Heartless]

reiteration b/c i'm getting off soon for the night.

IF ANEN WANTED THE TIE, THIS EASY STRATEGY WOULD'VE BEEN BULLETPROOF:

if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."

it would've been

insurance

that he WOULDN'T HAVE GOTTEN SHOT THAT NIGHT (because the sk would've just gotten lynched the next day since anen named him) and it would've given him the tie he wanted assuming sk cooperated in LYLO.

i think tth is right that anen thought HE STILL HAD HIS COVER and he could finagle the endgame where the SK would shoot the designated fall guy.

[Heartless]

Fonz, Anti, please stop with this stuff, it's not necessary and it's just making everything harder when I need

less

clutter, not more.

Fonz, I didn't intend to be condescending or patronizing, but I see that I came off that way. I apologize that I offended you.

Anti, I appreciate you defending me and all, but it's really not necessary.

-TTH

[Heartless]

No problem TTH.

And I'm going to ignore your brother. If he says anything genuinely insightful amongst the pointless hostility, let me know.

I'll talk to you a little more post game about myself because what I have to say isn't game relevant and doesn't need to clutter up the thread right now. Note for later though.

The presentation is jumbled, but Antihero's point is that there's a clear strategy Aneninen failed to follow in order to secure a tie (at least, that's what I think he's saying). I have to take a little time to think and write a post though to make sure.

I'd really like to hear more from Nero right now because he's been pretty much a blank all of today. I checked his site-wide activity and it looks like he's been gone all weekend, but I'd still like to see the thought process at work.

-TTH

[Heartless]

And Anen can't do anything about that.

But he could have.

If Anen thought he was in danger, the thing for him to do once it became clear AA9 was headed for the lynch yesterday would have been to out the SK publicly in twilight in order to get the leverage to avoid the nightkill and secure the tie in endgame. He chose to remain silent, though. To me, that indicates he was expecting to survive the night.

If I were in Anen's position, who would I be comfortable with? Fonz did suspect Anen, but it was mostly unclear which particular "flavor" of scum he suspected him of. Post 1866 implies that AA9 is the "mafia" read because Fonz discusses associative tells between 50 Shades and AA9's slot, leaving Anen as the implied "SK". From Anen's point of view, it might have been an entirely fabricated read, but Fonz never delves into specifics about Anen being the SK in particular. Even with the shock of the AA9 townflip and the paranoia of me being mafia in Post 1902, it seems like a little bit of a leap to think that Fonz would shoot me over Anen. Nero's suspicion is a lot less directed and more general, but he does say in Post 1894 that "I still don't have very big scum reads om either Heartless or Anen so gut still thinks Fonz/angel but both Fonz and angel are naturally scummy and derpy so its hard for me to tell." The thing that gives me pause here is that Nero seems like a bit of wild card in terms of reads, but how that influences Anen's course of action depends on how much of a gambling man he is. Judging by the choice to forgo killing the SK for two nights, Anen actually seems to be pretty comfortable rolling the dice.

Nero, this would be easier if you actually participated in the thought process here, though. What's your theory on Anen's behavior regarding the nightkills leading up to now?

-TTH

[Heartless]

Even with the shock of the AA9 townflip and the paranoia of me being mafia in Post 1902, it seems like a little bit of a leap to think that Fonz would shoot me over Anen.

I keep turning this over in my head and there are things that just bother me.

It seems like Anen amplified his tactics and tried to sell his theory that we're mafia pretty hard to Fonz in particular. It could be that he was just trying to shove a mislynch through, but he doesn't approach Nero with the same vigor or the same buddying (Post 1849 and Post 1855). He was also sure to profess very loudly that he doesn't think sthar is the SK for pretty WIFOM-y and tenuous reasons (Post 1797 and Post 1849), which would make sense if he were trying to maintain his cover.

-TTH

[Heartless]

I explicitly said you've been gone from the entire site. What about that makes it sound like you're avoiding posting here?

Nero, this would be easier if you actually participated in the thought process here

prob this

Nero, this would be easier if you actually participated in the thought process here

this makes it sound like I am not participating. If you knew I was gone why would you even post this? FMPOV this looks like nothing more than to get Fonz to think I'm not participating.

Hon, I'm saying you're not participating because you're not participating. It's not a judgment or an accusation. It's a fact. And I'm not

just

talking about the number of posts made today.

This game is hard. On one hand, Fonz is very articulate and thorough but there's red flags from Aneninen's play yesterday leading into today that I'm finding hard to ignore. On the other, the things you're posting don't show any thought for finding a theory that would explain Aneninen's behavior and how that might lead to the SK and the things you do post seem very reigned in. Now that it looks like Fonz is going to vote us, you've dialed back your attacks on him considerably from the beginning of the day. There's not much sorting in your thoughts which is unsettling because this is a binary decision two of us are making. It makes me think you're just waiting around for one of us to vote the other.

I'm not going to sugar coat it, and it's going to sound harsh. But honestly, the thought of losing to the Fonz is psychologically more palatable than the thought of losing to you Nero. In the former, it would mean sthar and Fonz bested me with more persuasive arguments and better play but the latter would mean I lost because I was eaten alive by paranoia and because you were able to dodge the spotlight just long enough for Fonz and I to stay at each other's throats. I'm not saying all this just for the sake of being a bitch and I don't want it to be this way. I need something to evaluate from you Nero. What's your entire thought process? Now's the time to put all your cards on the table.

-TTH

[Heartless]

For what I'm talking about with the reigned in attacks:

As I mentioned yesterday, I was not thrilled with Fonzie's 1909. First of all, he was activly scumhunting you (heartless) but he didn't care if you answered his question. IMO, I think town would care. It also looks like him being anxious to get to night. Would an experienced player do that?

I know that OMGUS comes from both alignments but I really hate how BOTH Fonz and Sthar have done that.

I really dislike how he (sthar) did absolutely nothing but prod doge before Fonz replaced in. There's a line of thinking that scum wouldn't draw attention to themselves like that. How does Sthar act as scum?

I DO like Fonz saying that he ISO'd Sthar 'cause he doesn't like playing as scum. Seems like a minor town tell but it also doesn't mean he was right. Why were you town reading sthar?

In this post, the first three paragraphs all seem to imply a scumread on Fonz's slot. With the "IMO, I think town would care." sentence, I certainly was left with the impression you were calling Fonz scum for asking me questions and then not waiting for me to answer them before hammering. You also say that you "weren't thrilled" with the post in question, which also implies a scumread.

I was actually going to talk about how the third paragraph accuses sthar of being a scummy lurker, but now that I keep looking at it, it's like that picture of the rabbit/duck. It's ambiguous and depends on how you read the pronouns in the second sentence. I was drawing the conclusion that the words "really dislike" imply a scumread as well, though.

But now you're saying that in the first paragraph you were actually

townreading

Fonz? Where does the "not thrilled" phrase and the logic presented in the second sentence come into play here because this paragraph certainly doesn't look like it leads to a townread to me.

-TTH

[Heartless]

/got it

closest i've come is drawing scum in an open setup w/ an sk

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=31479

[Heartless]

You'll have to get in line, there's people in front of you. I'll get to this tomorrow night.

I lied, you're still in line.

-TTH

[Heartless]

I mean obviously Anen didn't think he'd win for some reason and all those posts about mafia and the sk making a deal to draw were likely a reachout. But I still fail to see how explaining his behavior helps us find the sk.

tl;dr:
A reach out would've taken the form of publicly outing the SK since that was the only surefire way for Anen to get the joint win. Anen was trying to sneak by. How would that work? He would have to avoid getting scumread by the SK and keep the SK happy.

And therein lies the utility to the speculation. Who would've that strategy been the most viable with?

-TTH

[Heartless]

As for today, I'm particularly underwhelmed with TTH's scumhunting. We get the 'Fonz, what were you trying late yesterday?' question, but no follow-ups, and no sign of TTH having drawn any conclusions from it. Then we get this massive burst of defensive effort in trying to take down my theories about Anen, but I don't see anything that looks like trying to tell me and Nero apart.

Previously, I was knocking your theories in order to elicit a counter-challenge to see if

my

theories were any good or not. Now I'm just turning things over in my head repeatedly. The thing is that I have a major psychological hangup in that my logical conclusions from Anen's play are leading me to you in Post 1985, but I don't want them to. Ironically, I also want to townread you for being logical and thorough as these are things I can appreciate. If I vote you and I'm wrong, I'll feel terrible and blame myself for not listening to your massive walls that you obviously put effort in on.

It's a balance between playing to win and being polite and not being hated after the game.

And there's always holes in whichever theory I'm thinking about at the time:
Would Fonz have killed me with my responses to the questions yesterday or would he have stuck with Anen?
Would Fonz even have killed Anen if he suspected him?
Would Anen be confident enough in his ability to keep Nero happy?
Would Nero kill us over Anen?

I don't know, I keep going back and forth. And asking you two, "Hey would you have killed me?" isn't a question I suspect either of you would answer.

I guess if I absolutely

had

to vote

right now

, it would be Fonz. But I wouldn't be happy about it.

[Heartless]

But then there's Thor's endgame tell that town put in the most effort at endgame. :S

This is not fun.

[Heartless]

Right. The problem I have with 1985 is that I don't see how your conclusions lead you to me. You're correct in that it would be hard, based on my play yesterday, to see me killing you over Anen/Nero in the counterfactual where I'm SK. But Anen has that same information available to him, and he didn't choose to shoot - this is exactly the same line of argumentation Anti used to claim it wasn't you. Anen is more likely to not shoot the SK if he thinks the SK isn't going to shoot him, which implies Nero, who didn't particularly seem to suspect him. But the thing is, Anen was wrong, SK did actually shoot him, which implies someone who did suspect him. But then, it's not impossible Nero did suspect Anen and kept it quiet to stop Anen killing him. It's basically circular reasoning. Note that if I'm the SK, Anen has to convince me at some point to shoot you over him - and all the evidence in the thread points otherwards.

Depends on how Anen thought the AA9 flip would change the trajectory of the reads.

And it still leaves the issue of why Anen made it a point to say that he thought your slot wasn't the SK (Post 1797 and Post 1849). That's a bizarrely specific point to belabor, especially given that the reasons were really there. Was he trying to throw you off the trail knowing that the SK knew the mafia knew who he was.

I also suggest you look back at Sthar - it seems to me from things like the 'Pants-shittingly bad' comment that it should be obvious to anyone sthar was not any flavour of scum.

Would be simple misdirection. Nothing out of the ordinary there. There's no way he could have fooled the Goon at that point, but he could still fool the town.

[Heartless]

It doesn't seem to me to matter which 'flavour' of scum I suspected him of being. I think you're correct in that I saw associatives between him and 50, and it's also true that I thought Anti's theory about Majiffy voting Anen had some legs. Plus the 'absence at night, when we have a missing kill' thing which could work with either alignment. So I didn't really know what flavour of scum - and didn't much care - I just had a really hard time seeing the AA9 slot as town. Similarly, the Anen read was based largely on his attempt to buddy me and his overexplanation, plus the fact I was reading you and Nero both as more likely town than scum (which is also why today is hard).

Do you and Anen have any sort of previous experience? Have you played games with him?

[Heartless]

especially given that the reasons were really there.

*weren't

[Heartless]

So you don't really know each other that well?

Damn.

[Heartless]

Would be simple misdirection. Nothing out of the ordinary there. There's no way he could have fooled the Goon at that point, but he could still fool the town.

Except think about how sthar comes across in his posts. He has quite the ego. I really don't think, as scum, he'd put himself down like that. No. He thinks he's better than the scum players. That's why he calls them terrible.

I think he's more bark than bite. I think he's a pretty nice guy, but I'm saying that based of stuff outside this game.

And he's smart too, so if it served his win condition by appearing to self-deprecate, he would do it.

[Heartless]

If Anen knew that buddying wasn't something that worked on you, that would be something to consider but it seems like something outside the bounds of what we can talk about.

:X

[Heartless]

I'm only 2 hydra slips away from Anti now. :\

P.Edit: If it was after the hammer, there wasn't anything anyone could do about it.

[Heartless]

It was 1:1:4 that day.

Dropping the hammer on AA9 and outing the SK would have taken it to 1:1:3.

Even if they overlapped kills, it would either be 1:1:2 or 1:1:1 the next day. Town wouldn't have had the number to lynch Anen if he outed the SK.

[Heartless]

Because he didn't feel the SK was a threat to him for several nights and he counted on the SK not shooting him. The benefit is that he can burn through the town in half the time because he's counting on another kill to always land on town (i.e. not him).

[Heartless]

I'm pretty sure it's not a cross-site thing either.

I planned on making a post last night, but ended up having to take Antihero to the ER instead. It was not fun...

Currently on this account and maybe doing things, but I'm tired right now. How much time is there left?

[Heartless]

VOTE: The Fonz

If that didn't count.

[Heartless]

Nero, I see you around. If you're the SK, just hammer, you don't need to make a pretty gloat post.

[Heartless]

For fuck's sake, what's going on Nero? I'm sitting here F5'ing like a crazy person and there's nothing.

UNVOTE:

[Heartless]

I saw you in the chat lobby a few minutes ago.

[Heartless]

Oh, there you are.

[Heartless]

Heartless, why would you unvote Fonz if you believe he's scum?

Because I didn't know if you were sitting there making a "nanny nanny boo boo" post.

UGH

[Heartless]

none of the town picked up on Sthar's bad play

Why do you think sthar's play was bad?

[Heartless]

Why would I not just hammer and write my post later?

Because I explicitly told you not to string me along and I think you would be the kind of person who would make a long post with a hammer just to make fun of me.

[Heartless]

Doesn't help that the events of the last couple hours have made me want to pull my hair out by the roots.

[Heartless]

Anti's been out of commission all of today. This is just me. :\

[Heartless]

I'm not voting Fonz because I think he's being a butthead. I was voting him because he's been shoving walls of theory and then turning it around on me and acting like I'm scummy when I talk about an alternate.

It makes sense that mollie would kill sthar. It makes sense that sthar would kill mollie. It also makes sense that Fonz would kill Anen. It also makes sense that if Anen really

was

in the "last gasp" mode, he would remain quiet and take his chances with Fonz maybe acting on his paranoia on me.

Unless, of course, you're buying Fonz's nonsense that he would leave

us

around all those days as SK.

[Heartless]

Now you are just making fun of me.

[Heartless]

*sigh* Well, I guess I can't give Anti all the crap for emotional reads I suppose.

After mollie flipped, I felt really guilty about scum reading sthar the previous day and being so wrong about wgeurts and mollie. The "you owe me an apology" post kind of got to me and, honestly, from that point on I felt like I

owed

him a town read.

[Heartless]

Why are you asking for the hammer in particular?

[Heartless]

I also really didn't get the vibe that you had a scumread on Fonz. If you were scumreading Fonz why were you threatning to hammer me if I didn't participate?

I threatened to hammer you if you didn't participate?

[Heartless]

I also really didn't get the vibe that you had a scumread on Fonz.

That's because I never wanted to partly because I can identify with his posting style and partly because I liked that he complimented my play this game (yes, I'm petty). I always had the pieces in front of me I just didn't put them together. Remember when I asked Fonz where he was going with his questioning yesterday? I thought it was leading to an argument of "Heartless is mafia" (which meant there was paranoia Anen thought he could exploit). There was also Anen's weird sucking up to sthar/Fonz and the fact that you were a lot more unpredictable.

[Heartless]

I'm not waking Anti up for this. Sorry if you're reading this later and I chose wrong, Anti.

VOTE: The Fonz

[Heartless]

Did I stutter?

I did no such thing? I told you to participate because I thought it was just Fonz and I talking past each other.

[Heartless]

Nero, I swear, if you're trolling me right now...

[Heartless]

I'll just assume you're not.

If you are, you're a terrible person.

[Heartless]

If you're SK and stringing me along right now

A HUG IS DEFINITELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.

[Heartless]

No.

I'll restate my previous points.

There's a lot of weird things in this game that make sense from an "sthar is SK" angle. the mollie kill makes sense. mollie trying to kill sthar makes sense. Anen thinking he could dance around sthar's kills makes sense. Anen trying to buddy-buddy up to sthar/Fonz makes sense. Anen trying to shove a case on us being mafia in Fonz's face makes sense.

These are simple things, and Fonz is trying to obfuscate them and has been all day.

(And, that you didn't quickhammer I can read my own role PM.)

[Heartless]

Fine, I'll go watch another episode of Monsters Inside Me, throw up, cry, and be back then.

[Heartless]

Nero, you're choosing wrong, what the hell are you doing?

[Heartless]

Nero, I swear I am not letting you live this down.

[Heartless]

Nero, if you leave without saying a goddamn word, I will spam your inbox from now until Christmas with erectile dysfunction cure ads.

[Heartless]

THERE'S EVERYTHING IN THE WORLD POINT TO FONZ BEING THE SK AND US NOT BEING IT, HOW ARE YOU NOT SEEING THIS.

30 MINUTES GET THE FUCK BACK IN HERE AND TALK TO ME.

[Heartless]

Nero, if you throw this game away like this and walk away... I just don't have any words.

[Heartless]

MONTHS AND MONTHS AND MONTHS AND YOU CAN'T BE HERE FOR 27 MINUTES ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

[Heartless]

Three month. Three months to be precise.

3 months of thinking about these reads. 3 months putting together posts. 3 months of having godawful fights with Anti about stupid bullshit.

Nero, if you walk away after all this, you suck.

[Heartless]

Here is a free-verse poem about how much I hate you Nero.

Nero
You suck.
So badly.
I hate you
And you
Can fucking forget
About
That hug

[Heartless]

Jingle's going to need to throw me out in a second.

[Heartless]

I don't know what's sadder. Getting mislynched or losing because of a no lynch.

[Heartless]

Nero, you are a coward.

[Heartless]

I SEE YOUR GREEN DOT NERO THERE'S NO HIDING FROM ME.

[Heartless]

I am not going to wake Anti up.
I am not going to wake Anti up.
I am not going to wake Anti up.

[Heartless]

I'M TEMPTED TO THOUGH.

[Heartless]

NERO WE'VE BELABORED EVERY POINT TO DEATH.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Heartless]

STHAR WAS THE FUCKING KILL NIGHT 2.

THAT

ALONE

SHOULD BE OBVIOUS.

[Heartless]

Yes, mollie killed her houseplant Antihero who was SINGLE-HANDEDLY DOING A GREAT JOB AT BEING HER SHIELD FROM FUCKING EVERYONE INCLUDING ME.

[Heartless]

THANK GOD

[Heartless]

12 minutes.

Jee, you want to cut it any closer?

[Heartless]

Nero, the last few hours have traumatized me and it's all your fault.

[Heartless]

Wow, I just reread the last few pages and now I think I am in serious need of some mental help.

[Heartless]

All that and Fonz never voted anyway.