he wants your opinion tth, go ahead and give it to him
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol2.gif)
In post 1742, ArcAngel9 wrote:Okay. I tried gather some understanding of from the formers who played in this slot..but i hit the dead-end. there are way too many players who replaced into slot. So today i am going sit back and look others cases.. so i am going to sheep whoever brings best case and convinces me.
In post 1780, Aneninen wrote:Also, as a Hydra, you should have synchronized your heads' reads by now. Oh My Gods, it's Day5! I think you're trying to hint that I'm lying and faking.
In post 1808, Aneninen wrote:– no town would EVER self-vote. In a situation like this no scum would EVER self-vote. You're simply lying.
– if you THOUGHT that I am the SK you would Nightkill (or would have Nightkilled) me as Mafia or would at least TRY to lynch me (regardless of your alignment). Why the f-ck are you voting for ArcAngel then?
Aneninen wrote:I'm afraid that I'm simply too dumb to understand the situation.
I'm telling you all why: because my case about ArcAngel was right and you want me to sheep you with my vote. So, she's indeed the SK and Heartless, you f-cking know that for sure because you're the mafia! Let me guess what might come Tomorrow after ArcAngel's flip. You Nightkill someone (most probably Davesaz) and start advocating "wow, Aneninen is scum and he got us to lynch ArcAngel"! Perfect plan, eh? SK is lynched Today, mislynch is ready for Tomorrow. Thanks, but NO.
In post 1815, Aneninen wrote:Thanks for making me remember how terrible my gameplay was in Muskoka. You're doing the same thing as Mollie did: trying to convince everyone how stupid my gameplay is. Did you make up this plan together at Pre-game? As far as I can remember you did the same on Day1...
In post 1815, Aneninen wrote:@Everyone! If I'm wrong, please explain me why, because right now I can see no other possibilities than mafia = Heartless; SK = ArcAngel.
In post 1818, Heartless wrote:>the scumteam popped the SK's bp on night 2. that's a certainty because mafia didn't kill themselves and the rb's didn't stop anything and mollie/nacho was active enough not to miss the kill.
>the last scum would have known who the sk was THE SECOND THE MASSCLAIM ENDED
In post 1845, Nero Cain wrote:Heartless' activity dropped after d1 and he's trying to lynch mafia (wich actully benifits the sk)
In post 1877, Aneninen wrote:(1) 50Shades might have been buddying Heartless but, I have another opinion because they were constantly townreading 50Shades.
(2) 50Shades and Heartless were pushing a wagon against you for a long time.
(3) Check out 1241! They built up a huge case which seemed to be "la wow" but check out the scumlist there: MTD, Wgeurts and Sthar! Two of them flipped town and I'm talking with the third one now.
(4) They're calling me SK but they haven't provided a real case. On the other hand, check out 1802 and some of their later posts! How the f-ck would that make sense if they were town?!
Could you explain the internal hydra discussions?
You try to call the entire scumteam in one go. This seems overconfident at best, and out-of-keeping with your previous play.
In post 1902, The Fonz wrote:Seems to me the most obvious explanation for that trend was 'People were frustrated at the no-lynch, and felt that Massive was scum who wriggled off the hook because his buddies weren't willing to vote him.'
You (well, anti) subsequently vote for massive which also kinda rings alarm bells, since your 'realisation' depended on Massive = town. Did you change your mind, or did anti do it without consulting him? Was there any internal dissent from you?
In post 1935, Nero Cain wrote:I fail to see your point. Me considering a nl yesterday 'cause I felt that it was a good move for the town and also being able to see scum giving themselves the best chance to win is not in conflict. Both are also partially true since Anen shot conf town 'cause he thought it gave him a better chance and the sk killed Anen 'cause it bettered their chance to win. Now MAYBE its all just a coincidence that pretty obviously town Nero is left alive and TSO's older brother who is 99% more likely to vote me than you.
In post 1936, Nero Cain wrote:As I mentioned yesterday, I was not thrilled with Fonzie's 1909. First of all, he was activly scumhunting you (heartless) but he didn't care if you answered his question. IMO, I think town would care. It also looks like him being anxious to get to night. Would an experienced player do that?
In post 1939, The Fonz wrote:So I was reading you as the better player. And yet, the hydra, in general, when you were dissonant, Anti seemed to be 'winning,'
In post 1940, The Fonz wrote:Expand on 'Uncanny Valley?' (I know what it means in general, just not what you're saying as relates to Mafia).
In post 1944, TellTaleHeart wrote:Yes, and it's glaring.
If we were SK and Aneninen already "popped" the bulletproof, we wouldcertainlyhave been a higher priority kill for him in the last couple nights than either davesaz (who was townreading Anen) or MonkeyMan. Anti's theory may have been that Anen was SK, but based on the interactions between him and pirate mollie, I thought Anen was mafia. Regardless, if you're mafia, I would have to think someone with a kill that suspects you is a much higher priority than an already-castrated town special (i.e. davesaz).
The fact that Aneninen declined to kill the SK despite knowing who he was suggests that the SK didn't suspect Aneninen and he felt secure that he wouldn't be killed.
-TTH
In post 1945, TellTaleHeart wrote:In post 1943, The Fonz wrote:He saw the conftown as a bigger threat.
"Conftown" with no powers is a bigger threat than someone with a kill suspecting you.
Say the sentence out loud. Even leaving out the part where davesaz was strongly townreading Anen and the part where he alreadythoroughlystepped on our toes, does that sound right to you?
There's a gap that needs filling, Fonz. How are you doing so.
-TTH
In post 1947, TellTaleHeart wrote:I was the first one to point to Aneninen being mafia before he turned it around on me. He was mitigating a threat before it emerged.
How do you draw the conclusion he wants the world where he can livetoday? Surely, the win condition implies alotmore than that.
-TTH
In post 1943, The Fonz wrote:Are there any obvious flaws in this scenario?
1. Yes, I see that as entirely plausible. There is nothing super-threatening to Anen in those posts. I half wondered if you'd linked the wrong posts. 1642 is "He may be scum, he may not be."
2. Why should I care? It's TTH's thought process, and the impact you had on it, that I was particularly interested in, and which I thought would give me insight into your alignment.
And this post is also giving me a 'Slinging mud' vibe. If you are town, this is not exactly helping persuade me of that.
I can see him valuing a dead RB over you, preferring to try to get you lynched during the day, sure. (Or he tried to kill the SK and monkey blocked it. That's not impossible, though last night suggests it's more likely that Anen at least tried to shoot the PR, because there were much better arguments for taking out monkey than taking out Dave, and he still chose to kill Dave). You were the only player other than AA9 to get votes yesterday. Yes, I am aware that the other player who voted you is dead. It's also worth noting that the theory you used to suspect Anen was shot to pieces with the AA9 townflip. It's not impossible you reconsider in those circumstances.
In post 1953, The Fonz wrote:The other thing is that I feel like TTH's MTD read was probably genuine, and that explains the MTD kill much better than anything in Nero's ISO.
So let's be clear here. You are claiming that (I guess, you are claiming that I should believe that...) Nero was kept around as SK because of his shitty reads (Sthar, AA9 suspicions). In that case, he's banking on Nero shooting me overnight (or hoping that Nero also shoots Dave) and then choosing you over him in a post-NL shootout, while he knows he's going to shoot straight.
In post 1955, The Fonz wrote:She made it to win your approval? The MTD read stands independent of everything else in that chain of analysis, as I pointed out in my previous answer.
In post 1918, Heartless wrote:Yes, it was a house of cards, but I got the absolute best feeling out of it. I finally felt like Anti and I were on the same page which was, psychologically, very important to me at that point.
In post 1955, The Fonz wrote:Who is "you?" If the claim is me/Nero, then that is false, because I didn't scumread Nero yesterday (or at least didn't say out loud that I did). I had a creeping suspicion that Nero was setting me up for today at the end of the day with his #1909 shit, but I mean, Nero's just pretty bad, and I was still expecting AA9 to flip some flavor of scum, and had Anen as more likely scum than Nero. If it's me/Anen, then Anen was claiming to strongly town-read me.
In post 1961, The Fonz wrote:This theory answers Anti's objections to my previous case, that Anen was trying to get rid of you during the daytime, but at night went for the more risk-averse option. This seems the best explanation for why Anen pushed you yesterday - with you-SK lynched, he'd have killed dave overnight and been left with him/me/aa9/nero alive today, and his choice of who to kill to set up the best possible endgame after the inevitable 4p MiLo no-lynch.
In post 1967, The Fonz wrote:Yeah, I understand PD perfectly well. Thanks for explaining in a super-patronizing manner, though. It's not a PD, because at the point where you know who the other 'player' in the game is, there's no co-operate/defect outcome possible. It's C/C or D/D, and C/C is just obviously better.
He'd play for the tie if he expects to lose in the alternative scenario. (Also, ties between antitown groups are usually considered joint wins).
In post 1972, The Fonz wrote:You're being a fucking douche. Stop.
In post 1973, Heartless wrote:if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."
In post 1975, Heartless wrote:In post 1973, Heartless wrote:if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."
THERE WAS A WINDOW OF TIME WHEN AA9 WAS AT L1
that anen posted in himself
in your theory, this would've been the time to drop the act and go for the tie.
it wouldn't have been to go into the night in silence and hope the sk was also going for the tie.
In post 1957, Heartless wrote:Anen's strategy going into the endgame was to utilize a form of Prisoner's dilemma. This is evidenced by the fact he chose to keep the serial killer alive. From Fonz's post, I'm implying that the most likely move the next day would hypothetically be a no-lynch, which seems right given the game theory behind prisoner's dilemma. In order for Anen to win in that situation, he would have to talk the serial killer into shooting a townie.
In that situation, it's a game of probabilities for Anen. Anen obviously didn't plan on being killed, but he thought his best strategy was to bring a townie into endgame he thought the serial killer would turn on.
Therein, we can find the solution. Who did Anen think would shoot a townie instead of him?
-TTH
In post 1973, Heartless wrote:if he really wanted to tie, the better thing to do would've been to hammer aa9 and then say "HEY SK, I KNOW WHO YOU ARE, YOU'RE [NAME], DON'T SHOOT ME WE'LL GO TO PRISONER'S DILEMMA FOR THE TIE I'M SHOOTING DAVE."
In post 1980, The Fonz wrote:No problem TTH.
And I'm going to ignore your brother. If he says anything genuinely insightful amongst the pointless hostility, let me know.
In post 1984, The Fonz wrote:And Anen can't do anything about that.
In post 1985, Heartless wrote:Even with the shock of the AA9 townflip and the paranoia of me being mafia in Post 1902, it seems like a little bit of a leap to think that Fonz would shoot me over Anen.
In post 1992, Nero Cain wrote:In post 1990, TellTaleHeart wrote:I explicitly said you've been gone from the entire site. What about that makes it sound like you're avoiding posting here?
In post 1985, Heartless wrote:Nero, this would be easier if you actually participated in the thought process here
prob this
In post 1985, Heartless wrote:Nero, this would be easier if you actually participated in the thought process here
this makes it sound like I am not participating. If you knew I was gone why would you even post this? FMPOV this looks like nothing more than to get Fonz to think I'm not participating.