Open 576.1: The Enemy of my Enemy is my...Enemy? (Game Over)

[guille2015]

Vote Mathdino

cause he convinced me that Riabi was possibly town, when I was totally right about him being scum.

[guille2015]

Finally, because he was scum in the first game:

VOTE: Dragonspawn

He wasn't.

[guille2015]

Finally, because he was scum in the first game:

VOTE: Dragonspawn

He wasn't.

I have a role PM from that game that says different. ;-P

Are you sure it's not from this game. You said TGS was your partner. :/

[guille2015]

Oh wow, I got a wagon going. I didn't even notice. Let me catch up on this game, in a little while.

[guille2015]

^And I have a feeling this is a townslip.

If Grey wanted to tell his partner how to play, he'd say so in the scum PT.

i have been grey's partner once before and he never talked in the pre-QT and if I recall correctly that game had day talk, also, mastin was also playing as our partner, but Grey Ice didn't talk in the QT until Mastin replaced in. Also, Grey is not one to give any type of advice by telling their partner how to play.

However I get a feel for Astinus as town up to this point.

[guille2015]

I trust Grey's read on mastin as a consequence of trusting Grey. Town so far is {Grey, mastin, dragonspawn, Astinus}.

I can't say for sure that mastin is town. I'd like to know why you think so.

I somewhat agree with you on grey. It would seem that he picked somebody at random but said random was not in the game. Like if he wasn't paying attention. However, he did not confirm before posting and thus we can't be sure that he even read his PM. I would keep an open mind on Grey.

I agree with your other two town reads.

[guille2015]

Oh right

UNVOTE: Mathdino

[guille2015]

Sorry >_<

DS's logic while wrong, paints him as town so far. That logic get's you nothing as scum, besides the extra attention from the town when they point out faulty logic. Pointing out you have a town read on someone based on that fallacy first phase often leads to calling "buddying". If one if them is lynched, the other will probably follow.

This post is very worrysome to me. I don't trust Nova.

[guille2015]

Fine.

Post #1: An extremely strong scum tell, in my experience. Saying "X is really good, he totally tricked me!" usually means "X beat me as scum once, and now I'm going to flip the tables".
Post #2: A correction that, as far as I can tell, was 100% wrong. So there's like not even a reason for this post to exist.
Post #3: Shoveling suspicion on someone without, again, really trying to see if it was right.

This is good scum hunting. Wrong. But good.

[guille2015]

Ok, finished reading.

yeah, this game is muddied by the previous game. Most of the early game was talking about the previous game, which is unlikely to help us catch scum. Scum will just be honest about it. I think Math, Ast, and DS are town. But that's not know. I keep seeing Mastin as Null, unlike some players here like to see him as town.

@GreyIce.

Any thoughts on the other players. care to share who else you think is scum?

@TGS

: What do you think of GI now?

2Birds has done no contribution yet. Which is different than from last game. But since last game he was scum, it confuses me immensely.

@Riabi

: Is there anything in GI's argument that you agree the most with in 87?

Ok, Fink has lots and lots of words. But they are either repeating what everyone is saying, or not providing any additional information. I see no scumhunting other than saying that DS is maybe scum.

VOTE: Fink

[guille2015]

This post is very worrysome to me. I don't trust Nova.

Why?

I mean, like I said in the last game, I think he reminds me of the quiet guy at the poker table that you do not mess with unless you know you can beat him. But, that doesn't make him scummy. What is it about that post that worries you?

It's completely none compromising. He's basically saying (unless I misunderstood) that DS is buddying. So, I don't really know what Nova's post is trying to accomplish with that. Also, What's with the apology.

[guille2015]

I don't really have time to read through the last posts tonight. Will try tomorrow, but Weekends are family time. I'll certainly catch up Monday.

[guille2015]

Ok, Fink has lots and lots of words. But they are either repeating what everyone is saying, or not providing any additional information. I see no scumhunting other than saying that DS is maybe scum.

As the lone push on Dragon, which is what I've spent the most words on, I fail to see how that's repeating what anyone is saying. What exactly is scumhunting if not pushing one's read and asking questions?

But yeah apparently no one eles suspect Dragon, and his last few posts have been pretty good (I'm still suspicious).

He's basically saying (unless I misunderstood) that DS is buddying. So, I don't really know what Nova's post is trying to accomplish with that. Also, What's with the apology.

This bizzaro interpretation of Nova's calling Dragon town as Nova accusing Dragon of buddying doesn't seem like the kind of thing someone could get from reading Nova's post and trying to figure out if he was town or scum. It

does

seem like the kind of thing someone could come up with when skimming back in the thread and trying to justify a bullshit read. And the "unless I misunderstood" gives nice cover for someone calling him out on this, if it turns out not to make sense, as if he suspects that maybe it doesn't.

VOTE: Guille

That's L-2

This post is bad. His biggest scumread is Dragon so he backs away slowly when it is clear that nobody really wants to lynch him. Then with a pretty weak reason to jump on my wagon, right after I vote for him? I call that OMGUS.

[guille2015]

Sorry >_<

DS's logic while wrong, paints him as town so far. That logic get's you nothing as scum, besides the extra attention from the town when they point out faulty logic. Pointing out you have a town read on someone based on that fallacy first phase often leads to calling "buddying". If one if them is lynched, the other will probably follow.

This post is very worrysome to me. I don't trust Nova.

Nova's post was good. This is also bad logic.

Ok, I get it now. I agree, I apologize.

[guille2015]

I think to break apart that post into pieces takes away from it's value. IMO, it is really only compelling as an argument as a full post. Any one of the posts he mentions is null by itself, but, when put together, they seem suspicious to me. That said, I think you've been more townish since that point.

Hey, there is no thumbs up emoticon. Well <thumbs up>.

[guille2015]

@Egg, I'm still trying to figure out Dragon's math, but hopefully I'll get back to you this evening.

drop it the math is irrelevant. Why are you still figuring out math at this point?

[guille2015]

Egg is scum.

This will be very interesting.

[guille2015]

I had Fink down as scum on my read-through up until he claimed game frustrations. This very much read sincerely to me, and in my experience, people are far more okay with being scumread as scum than they are as town.

Scum can get frustrated too? Any other reason why you think Fink is not scum.

also, what's the point to this : "people are far more okay with being scumread as scum than they are as town.'"

[guille2015]

I am adamantlyrics against the fink wagon. I just spent an entire game busting his assistant and he was town. Don't feel like doing it again. He was contributing up until the VLA, and I hate lynching contributing memyers (that goes triple in multiball).

I wonder how you see fink contributing. The only thing I see him do is talk about how he is not scum and how I am?

Also, How is everyone considering "dragon = town for one dumb reason." imply that Dragon is scum?

[guille2015]

[

im not reading the rest of mstin's post
because i cant get past this

quote="In post 243, mastin2"]We can start with Egg having an immediate townread on me when frankly, I expect most players these days who have played with me within the last year to be scumreading me at gamestart. (Why? Heck if I know! But time and time again, game after freakin' game, it's been happening to me.) Then we can go into how he discredits the townreads, continuing into

this is such a bullshit reason[/quote]
Technically, I feel that Mastin's main reason is laid out at the end of the post.

[guille2015]

Oh never mind I see what Grey's talking about. Thinks the fact I forgot multiball means I'm scum hunting for the opposing team.

Yeah, no, just derped, sorry. I'm in a very "these people are not scum together" mood in my games right now.

Opinions from everyone! Is this considered scummy? Forgetting that this is a multiball is akin to scum hunting for the opposing team. Grey Ice thinks yes.

[guille2015]

I think droog is town.

tell me more.

[guille2015]

TGS:

What do you think of Fink's reasoning for leave Dragon's wagon and jump on my Wagon?

[guille2015]

'Kay I want to say that supports my read.

Does it really? I've seen ragequits from both sides. Why is this more likely to come from town. How is finks frustration more "I can't believe others think I'm scum" than "I can't do anything to remove suspicion from me".

[guille2015]

TGS:

What do you think of Fink's reasoning for leave Dragon's wagon and jump on my Wagon?

Seemed legit to me, I thought you were scummy, too (still do!), and I got the impression Fink's dragonspawn vote was meant to pressure him and get him talking. He did say his read on dragon wasn't very strong.

But this could come for scum Fink as well. Scum fink is also interested in finding the opposing scum team, would he not?

[guille2015]

Uhhhhhhhhhhhh. Why do you ask this? Why would Fink potentially being on the opposing scum team make me want to vote him as opposed to people I have stronger scum reads on? This post really concerns me.

You misunderstand. I am trying to evaluate why you think fink is town. You vote is of no concern to me.

[guille2015]

I'm comfortable lynching eggbert, but I think you'll fare better lynchin mastin. Just my own personal opinion.

Which of egg or Mastin do you think is Scumhunting better?

[guille2015]

Yeah, read the game twice. Was scum reading Eggbert, Mathdino, and Mastin for wall posting.
Actually, there are a lot of wall posters, and it literally scares the bejeebies out of me.
Never wall post as scum. For some reason scum wall post a lot and I never understood why, but they just do.

Why they do it, I'll never know.
I'm comfortable lynching eggbert, but I think you'll fare better lynchin mastin. Just my own personal opinion.

Ok, so, other than wall posting, which is totally unconvincing for me. Tell me why I should change my vote from you to Egg?

[guille2015]

I think Fink/Goblin is town because I think the wagon on him is weak and based on reasoning (which was that his vote on you was bad) I don't agree with.

If the arguments for him being scum are wrong, how does that follow that he is town because of that.

IE:
I can say that You are town because you have not voted in this game yet. That argument is wrong, because you have indeed voted. Would we conclude then that You are scum because the argument is wrong?

[guille2015]

I've got confirmation that Mastin is not a Mafia.

Cheers.

[guille2015]

Votecount 2.00:

Not Voting - guile, dragon, Mastin2, 2birds, Nova, Girl, astinus, Riabi, droog, GreyICE

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch and 5 to no-lynch.

Deadline is in [countdown]0.00[/countdown] or by 6:30 PM on November December 10th, 2014.

Void

: can you fix this. This is supposed to be the Lynch votecount.

[guille2015]

Thoughts on Mathdino's use of the word townslip?

He used it on GreyIce and Astinus, though he focuses the rest of the day defending astinus townslip.

Is this indicative of Math trying to protect his much more important buddy? Or is this Math sincerely discarding the opposing team and thus clearing GI and Ast as Math's buddy?

[guille2015]

Reading through Nova's ISO. I am going to agree that Nova is not likely to be Math's Buddy.

Nova went after Fink in his second post when Fink was at 3 votes.

Then this post:

Now the thing that got Mathdino's vote on Fink in post #119. After reading my post and guille's response, it really was reaching as I never said DS was buddying.

Mathdino called Fink's logic fishy, but I see for no reason why it was any worse than guilles bad logic that no one who really read that would get.

And the entirety of page 6, Fink concisely explained his reasoning for his guille vote. He's consistent with it, and he explains why he switched it. While I personally don't agree woth his logic on guille, multiple times the town has allowed scummy play based on bad reasoning, what's different?

I was pretty set in my initial reasoning on Fink, but in hindsight the posts in context make sense. And I have taken a look at the game and read the ISO's of a lot of the players which explains some behavior. I don't think we should lynch Fink.

This fits well with Nova being Finks buddy. I want to hear others thoughts on this too.

[guille2015]

@2Bird

: What did you guys do with your investigation in the past game.

Same goes for Dragon. If you have already mentioned it here, feel free to quote it, I'm not looking for it.

[guille2015]

Nope, just an answer. You can answer. I forgot you were his partner.

[guille2015]

right
but couldct mastin still be the werewolf?

How could he be?

I'm asking droog.

[guille2015]

Anyway

VOTE: Guille

Still have to take that closer look but I don't believe him for the reasons I just said.

This is amusing, why me over 2bird?

[guille2015]

Also, worth mentioning, I'm kinda inclined to lynch those who have pushed conftown players like droog and Riabi (side of TGS), even though that sounds terrible to say.

Wouldn't you say that they are least probable to be scum because they have displayed erroneous assumptions about how scum can target or play in this game?

[guille2015]

I don't think Riabi is scum. He has mentioned that in the two previous games he and his scumbuddies (DS and TGS) talked that the ideal scum strategy was to target their buddy. Unless Math or Fink's slot convinced him of not doing this, I would think that his preference would be to target his buddy.

If 2bird were scum now, he can only be Mafia, were he'd have targeted Math and given that he died, he could take advantage and fake his result. But the likelihood of this happening is slim. Like Mastin said, very very risky. I don't think that that is the case and would rather let Werewolf decide his fate.

I don't think it's dragonspawn, play is very different from his previous scum play. Although more indicative on him improving his play, I think there is good town motivation behind his play now.

Will post more as I investigate all players individually.

[guille2015]

Vote: ABR

You were scum in the last one, therefore you're scum in this one

<- Flawless Logician

I bit late for this, but who is ABR?

[guille2015]

@Nova

: Why did you think Mathdino was town, way back?

[guille2015]

There was never an ABR in the game, it was a mistake on GreyICE's part.

I am aware. I meant, as who is ABR in the forums. I'm trying to figure out why the mistake happened. I can't really ask GI anymore, which is a bummer.

[guille2015]

Void: can we get a prod on Nova

[guille2015]

and TGS for that matter.

[guille2015]

Droog is also a good lynch for today, but I'm ready for lynching anytime. Don't know what else to discuss.

My Autocorrect keeps changing lynch for lunch. I'm so hungry.

[guille2015]

2 days left.

Can't decide whether to lynch an empty slot that may or may not be filled.

or

Somebody that has been coasting for a week given that the likely lynch was NOVA at the time.

Hmmmm. decisions, decisions.

I'll let Mastin decide. Makes it easier on me.

[guille2015]

lol
Who do you think we should lynch between them?

The only way I can be scum is if 2bird is also scum. Mastin is the only one guaranteed to be town, and she has more experience, and is quite better then me at nailing scum. Hence why I worded it to indicate why I think Droog is a viable option for a lynch.

[guille2015]

VOTE: Nova

There is nothing else to discuss today.

Droog or Bulb should hammer inmediately.

[guille2015]

You talk a lot.

I prefer a Droog Lynch myself. But the GI/Bulb is good too.

Not astinus though. And I had the same thoughts as you about 2Bird. But Mastin convinced me otherwise.

UNVOTE

will place a vote later today, when i have given it some thought.

[guille2015]

I really would have liked a lynch on Droog. Why did it got to GI's slot?

[guille2015]

I might not get on later today so

Vote Bulb

[guille2015]

Ok, So, here is my list.

NJAC

droog

Teen Girl Squad

riddleton

Astinus

beastcharizard
dragonspawn

Nova-Radiance

Heartless
Riabi
2birds1stone
guille2015

That's lynch order for me. But I really haven't given it serious thought to it, so I really want to discuss it. The last four are pretty much town for reasons discussed yesterday. Even though Nova was on the verge of getting lynched Heartless came in very strong, it was mostly a policy lynch and I really doubt that he is Math's buddy. I am trying to figure out why I thought 2Bird could not be werewolf, but I can't find it on my or Mastin's ISO. Need to think more about that. Beast and dragon are probably town for ... Reasons.

So, Lynch riddleton first. Sounds interesting.

[guille2015]

I'm having a hard time thinking MathDino's scumbuddy typed a few of these sentences. Specifically: "I'd say Mathdino comes off looking worse at the end of it, I just don't find Fink scummy and I don't understand why Mathdino does." and "Honestly I think Mathdino could be scum but he's also the most active player in the game so maybe it's just because his posts are the only ones I'm reading." There's not much to be gained by taking the side of someone who you don't know the alignment of over your partner.

I actually see that as opposite. Consider that those are noncommittal statements, TGS never really pushes Math. And Math only acknowledges TGS once early, IIRC. Not many players found Math to be scummy, if any at all. So this statement might be TGS applying suspicion on Math so that if any gets killed, the other would look better. Also, consider that Math was the Lesser of the two scum. If they had to choose who to bus, it be Math.

[guille2015]

I am getting clearer in my Reads.

All I need now is for Droog to genuinely arrive and give his thoughts to this game. I won't tolerate any more dodging. His following post, or series of posts, should contain his reads, discussion and a VOTE.

@

Riddleton

: So, what are your reads and who do you want to lynch. All you have right now is a defense and a FOS.

[guille2015]

I slightly FoS birds for the notion of having a report. I find it unlikely, if not unrealistic, that the last WW would investigate since there's no point.

I can actually see it both ways. I can see scum targeting 2bird to create WIFOM if he reveals the investigation which is what town would do. But 2Bird could claim this to generate the above reaction.

For the moment this is WIFOM. I think 2Bird would know that this ploy is very dangerous, if he were to survive for some reason till LyLo, he'd get lynch because of this.

The only reason for Scum to target 2bird like this is either for the giggles or to create WIFOM and suspicion on an half confirmed Player. I wanted to wait for droog to give his mind so as to see if he "expected" or pushed this angle, which he didn't. The ones that pushed it are Dragon and Riddleton.

Riddleton is pushing rather hard on it, but dragon finds suspecions and questions it, but doesn't consider 2birds for scum. Quite a dilemma there. Thoughts on this?

[guille2015]

I don't think Math will be so blatant in his association.

I feel that Mathdino was setting me up as his buddy if he were Lynched or Killed. Which means that he can systematically fake an association. I wouldn't go entirely off of Math's post to find his buddy.

[guille2015]

it sounds like a non-issue to me
birds is confirmed right?

He could still be the werewolf. But this is unlikely because for that to happened it would require several consecutive risky Gambits that are unlikely to yield a good result. He was also cleared as town for his posting and town-read by many including Mastin and Myself.

So, not confirmed but town.

[guille2015]

What's this based on?

I Might be biased, but when I read through Math's ISO I thought that He was prepping me up to be his buddy. Like his defense for me and then a bit of suspicion later, while still defending me from fink. Although, I might be giving him too much credit here, but that's how I see it. When I play scum I try to not generate associate tells with my buddies, and I actively try to manufacture associative tells on other players.

[guille2015]

I'm Up for a Droog or A riddleton lynch.

So, Give me a heads up to when you guys want the day to end.

[guille2015]

I prefer Riddleton.

VOTE: Riddleton

Day ends on the day after X-mas. So make sure to take that into account. I'll be around to change vote if anything.

[guille2015]

So long and thanks for all the fish.

[guille2015]

Droog drew sufficient attention for him to get enough scrutiny and there was a lack of association between everyone else.

So, tell me Math. Was I right in thinking that you were framing me to be your partner? Or was it my paranoia?

Also, Happy Holidays!

[guille2015]

Unless scum is a huge town read, taking out the opposing scum team should be left for late game. Best to use scum hunting and lynching to deal with opposing scum teams. Better if you manage to convince the town that your proposed lynch is of your Team.